Wednesday, December 31, 2003
Winners
Everyone likes a winner. From casual observation it seems that both Clark's and Dean's fundraising speeded up after achieving their initial goals.
Blogspot Problems
This message is rather pointless as it won't reach the people it needs to reach, but plenty of people are having problems accessing this site and other sites hosted on blogspot.com. As it only affects some people, I assume that one of their servers has "forgotten" where to find this site even as others are working fine.
Comments
The nice people at Haloscan informed me that the database from my old comments was corrupted and they'd fix it as soon as they get back from vacation. So, we're stuck with the 1000 character limit for a few more days...
Southern Obsession
I too am tired of this obsession with Democrats and the South. It's a constant media theme, and at least when it comes to presidential politics (not the only thing I realize) it's really just irrelevant. A Democrat can *easily* win without winning a single Southern state.
It took me 5 seconds with an electoral vote calculator to come up with a winning group of states. Roughly from Left to Right - HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, OH, WV, PA, NJ, DE, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME.
Are all those states a lock? Of course not. But, going by 2000 results they're all either a lock or within clear reach. Additional possible winners include - AZ, IA. That's all without the South (WV doesn't count).
Now, looking to the South the realistic possibilities, without doing anything substantially different, are Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe, just maybe Kentucky (well, probably not).
Then of course there's Florida, which I left off because it annoys me so much. My election 2000 prediction was "whoever wins Florida will win." How wrong I was.
It took me 5 seconds with an electoral vote calculator to come up with a winning group of states. Roughly from Left to Right - HI, WA, OR, CA, NV, NM, MN, WI, IL, MI, OH, WV, PA, NJ, DE, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME.
Are all those states a lock? Of course not. But, going by 2000 results they're all either a lock or within clear reach. Additional possible winners include - AZ, IA. That's all without the South (WV doesn't count).
Now, looking to the South the realistic possibilities, without doing anything substantially different, are Virginia, Tennessee, Louisiana, and maybe, just maybe Kentucky (well, probably not).
Then of course there's Florida, which I left off because it annoys me so much. My election 2000 prediction was "whoever wins Florida will win." How wrong I was.
Big Media Matt's Insight
In a list of insights he's gained over the past year, he includes this one:
The first one we all know but the second one I think would surprise most people. In my not very vast experience with congressional staffers I've found it to be shockingly true.
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DC media: Incestuous. Congressional staff: Surprisingly uninterested in politics.
The first one we all know but the second one I think would surprise most people. In my not very vast experience with congressional staffers I've found it to be shockingly true.
Politics
Is there anything that the Washington Post editorial board feels the Democrats can actually, well, be political about? They're starting to make the WSJ editorial page look reasonable, and that's no mean feat.
Currency
I had a long post about what the falling dollar meant but Blogger ate it and I don't feel like rewriting it. But, the short version is that your European vacation just go more expensive, while American exports and tourism just got a lot cheaper. So, it's both good and bad depending - and neither good nor bad per se.
European investors are pretty bummed. Over the past year or so they've seen the value of any dollar-denominated fall substantially. The problem with investing in foreign assets is that you experience not just the underlying risk of the investment, you also experience exchange rate risk.
As for the longer run, negative effects on the US economy of a falling dollar would be more likely to be due to increased uncertainty about the currency and expectations of further falls, rather than the fact that it's fallen as far as it has. Market expectations are really key.
Countries which have pegged their currency to the dollar are also obviously affected.
...Steve Kyle brings up an additional issue, the possible replacement (full or partial) of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. If this happened rather slowly it wouldn't be such a big deal for the economy, though it may negatively affect our geopolitical dominance somewhat more. I seem to remember reading estimates somewhere that if this happened the Euro-zone would get a couple extra GDP points, so presumably roughly the inverse would happened to the US. Not that big of a deal. On the other hand, if this process were to happen rather quickly - and panic about the dollar set in (if the musings of the Yoshidas of the world were feared to be policy) - that could be, as they say, Bad.
European investors are pretty bummed. Over the past year or so they've seen the value of any dollar-denominated fall substantially. The problem with investing in foreign assets is that you experience not just the underlying risk of the investment, you also experience exchange rate risk.
As for the longer run, negative effects on the US economy of a falling dollar would be more likely to be due to increased uncertainty about the currency and expectations of further falls, rather than the fact that it's fallen as far as it has. Market expectations are really key.
Countries which have pegged their currency to the dollar are also obviously affected.
...Steve Kyle brings up an additional issue, the possible replacement (full or partial) of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. If this happened rather slowly it wouldn't be such a big deal for the economy, though it may negatively affect our geopolitical dominance somewhat more. I seem to remember reading estimates somewhere that if this happened the Euro-zone would get a couple extra GDP points, so presumably roughly the inverse would happened to the US. Not that big of a deal. On the other hand, if this process were to happen rather quickly - and panic about the dollar set in (if the musings of the Yoshidas of the world were feared to be policy) - that could be, as they say, Bad.
Sweet Sweet Hate
The numbers don't lie. There's almost twice as much hate on the Right as on the Left. So, let's put the "hate-filled Left" idea to bed. Get a new storyline, oh honorable pundits.
Adjusted vs. Unadjusted
I've never spent any time looking into how the Labor department goes about calculating their seasonally adjusted unemployment numbers, but Seeing the Forest notes there's a huge gap in both the number, and more importantly the trend, of new unemployment claims.
I can't shed any additional light on what this means.
I can't shed any additional light on what this means.
Pension Time Bomb
The inability of corporations to live up to their pension obligations is Yet Another Reason why we need a social insurance program. Don't give me any crap about "being able to control your own money" - your mutual fund company is just as likely to rip you off. We are talking about 40-60 year time periods here.
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
Hillary Will be Indicted for Vince Foster's Murder
That and more wacky predictions from Safliar. At least he admits last year's predictions were, like everything else he writes, mostly hooey.
Onward to France!
Another manifesto.
Bye bye Seoul.
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President George W Bush was sent a public manifesto yesterday by Washington's hawks, demanding regime change in Syria and Iran and a Cuba-style military blockade of North Korea backed by planning for a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear sites.
The manifesto, presented as a "manual for victory" in the war on terror, also calls for Saudi Arabia and France to be treated not as allies but as rivals and possibly enemies.
The manifesto is contained in a new book by Richard Perle, a Pentagon adviser and "intellectual guru" of the hardline neo-conservative movement, and David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter. They give warning of a faltering of the "will to win" in Washington.
In the battle for the president's ear, the manifesto represents an attempt by hawks to break out of the post-Iraq doldrums and strike back at what they see as a campaign of hostile leaking by their foes in such centres of caution as the State Department or in the military top brass.
Their publication, An End to Evil: How to Win the War on Terror, coincided with the latest broadside from the hawks' enemy number one, Colin Powell, the secretary of state.
...
The book demands that any talks with North Korea require the complete and immediate abandonment of its nuclear programme.
As North Korea will probably refuse such terms, the book urges a Cuba-style military blockade and overt preparations for war, including the rapid pullback of US forces from the inter-Korean border so that they move out of range of North Korean artillery.
Such steps, with luck, will prompt China to oust its nominal ally, Kim Jong-il, and install a saner regime in North Korea, the authors write.
Bye bye Seoul.
Adopt a Journalist I
Someone has already adopted the New York Times's Jody Wilgoren.
Anyway, I'm not going to organize this but feel free to forward on links. I'll set up a special blogroll section.
...but, to add, ideally whoever does this shouldn't just be doing instant reaction. I'm thinking of archiving all of their work (on your hard drive - copyright and all), and really tracing through and providing context for all their work. This includes talking heads appearances, too.
Anyway, I'm not going to organize this but feel free to forward on links. I'll set up a special blogroll section.
...but, to add, ideally whoever does this shouldn't just be doing instant reaction. I'm thinking of archiving all of their work (on your hard drive - copyright and all), and really tracing through and providing context for all their work. This includes talking heads appearances, too.
Bob Novak Follies
Here's one:
And here's another:
Novak also put that one in his column, which newspapers ran.
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According to a confidential source at the CIA, Mrs. Wilson was an analyst, not a spy, not a covert operative, and not in charge of undercover operatives. So what is the fuss about, pure Bush-bashing?
And here's another:
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The name of the CIA front company was broadcast yesterday by Novak, the syndicated journalist who originally identified Plame. Novak, highlighting Wilson's ties to Democrats, said on CNN that Wilson's "wife, the CIA employee, gave $1,000 to Gore and she listed herself as an employee of Brewster-Jennings & Associates."
"There is no such firm, I'm convinced," he continued. "CIA people are not supposed to list themselves with fictitious firms if they're under a deep cover -- they're supposed to be real firms, or so I'm told. Sort of adds to the little mystery."
In fact, it appears the firm did exist, at least on paper. The Dun & Bradstreet database of company names lists a firm that is called both Brewster Jennings & Associates and Jennings Brewster & Associates.
Novak also put that one in his column, which newspapers ran.
Special Prosecutor
Ashcroft is appointing one in the Plame case.
Anyway, there's no way the investigators in this case, if they've been trying, don't know who the culprit(s) is/are. If they've questioned all top administration officials then whoever told the press would've told them. Whether they have enough evidence to prove it is another question.
...link
Silly Ashcroft. Doesn't he know this whole thing is, in the words of one esteemed professor of law, "Bogus."
UPDATE: The Special Prosecutor has already issued his report - and the culprit is... Bill Clinton!
Anyway, there's no way the investigators in this case, if they've been trying, don't know who the culprit(s) is/are. If they've questioned all top administration officials then whoever told the press would've told them. Whether they have enough evidence to prove it is another question.
...link
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WASHINGTON (AP) - Attorney General John Ashcroft will recuse himself from an investigation into who leaked the name of a CIA operative, Justice Department sources said Tuesday.
The investigation will be headed by the U.S. attorney in Chicago, Patrick Fitzgerald, who will report to Ashcroft's new deputy, James Comey, the officials said.
It was not immediately clear why Ashcroft made the decision.
Silly Ashcroft. Doesn't he know this whole thing is, in the words of one esteemed professor of law, "Bogus."
UPDATE: The Special Prosecutor has already issued his report - and the culprit is... Bill Clinton!
Photos
Breslin has a good column about Army Times's decision to run photos of all of the fallen.
Here's a transcript of the Cher phone call to C-Span he's referring to.
...and here's the audio.
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And the dead are brought back here almost furtively. There are no ceremonies or pictures of caskets at Dover, Del., air base, where the dead are brought. "You don't want to upset the families," George Bush said. That the people might be slightly disturbed already by the death doesn't seem to register.
The wounded are flown into Washington at night. There are 5,000 of them and for a long time you never heard of soldiers who have no arms and legs. Then the singer Cher went into Walter Reed Hospital and came out and gave a report that was so compelling she should walk away with a Pulitzer Prize.
Finally, a couple of television stations and a newspaper here and there began to cover these things. There are miles to go.
For now, Cher, on one day, and the Army Times for the whole year, have served the nation as it should be served.
Here's a transcript of the Cher phone call to C-Span he's referring to.
...and here's the audio.
Hardball
Steve Gilliard's right. It's time to take the gloves off.
Bob Somerby has documented enough atrocities far more serious than any Jayson Blair transgressions from many many beltway journalists. This coming year we can't let them get away with it.
We spend a lot of time focusing on the pundits, but it's really the journalists under the cover of "objectivity" who turned the '00 campaign coverage into a travesty.
We should have an "adopt a journalist" program. As Steve suggets, people should choose a journalist, follow everything they write, archive all their work, and critique and contextualize it where appropriate.
Top two to watch - Kit Seelye and Ceci Connolly.
Bob Somerby has documented enough atrocities far more serious than any Jayson Blair transgressions from many many beltway journalists. This coming year we can't let them get away with it.
We spend a lot of time focusing on the pundits, but it's really the journalists under the cover of "objectivity" who turned the '00 campaign coverage into a travesty.
We should have an "adopt a journalist" program. As Steve suggets, people should choose a journalist, follow everything they write, archive all their work, and critique and contextualize it where appropriate.
Top two to watch - Kit Seelye and Ceci Connolly.
Nedra Pickler Style Guide
It appears that the Nedra Pickler School of Journalism is in ascendance:
This is just silly. This article is a critique of the ad, and under the accuracy section it would be fair to point it out for context. But, the implied criticism is that Clark should have put this into the ad, which is just ridiculous.
Look for more Picklerisms from Spite Girl Kit Seelye.
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General Clark, the former supreme allied commander in Europe, received multiple decorations in his 34-year military career. He received the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Mr. Clinton in 2000. The commercial does not mention that just months before that ceremony, Mr. Clinton's administration relieved General Clark of his command.
This is just silly. This article is a critique of the ad, and under the accuracy section it would be fair to point it out for context. But, the implied criticism is that Clark should have put this into the ad, which is just ridiculous.
Look for more Picklerisms from Spite Girl Kit Seelye.
Terrorist Alert
The FBI has issued a warning that anyone seen carrying a book such as this one should be considered a suspect.
Monday, December 29, 2003
Cost
NYT:
Benefit?
I suppose he can "look" on the bright side - he can always listen to instapundit.
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Sgt. Jeremy Feldbusch, a fit, driven, highly capable Army Ranger, left home in February knowing the risks of combat. Two months later, he came home blind.
A growing number of young men and women are returning from Iraq and trying to resume lives that were interrupted by war and then minced by injury. Sergeant Feldbusch, a moody 24-year-old, is one of them, back in a little town in western Pennsylvania, in a little house overlooking trees and snow-blanketed hills he cannot see.
...
During the two months Jeremy Feldbusch spent recovering at Brooke Army Medical Center in San Antonio, his parents lived at his bedside. Charlene Feldbusch remembers one day seeing a young female soldier crawling past her in the corridor with no legs and her 3-year-old son trailing behind.
Ms. Feldbusch started to cry. But not for the woman.
"Do you know how many times I walked up and down those hallways and saw those people without arms or legs and thought, Why couldn't this be my son? Why his eyes?"
Benefit?
I suppose he can "look" on the bright side - he can always listen to instapundit.
Crap
Every now and then a pundit writes something which is so truly awful, so craptacular, so astoundingly horrible that even I can't muster up the righteous anger to write about it. Sure, the idiots over at Townhall and the likes of Krauthammer regularly spew such hateful idiotic crap on a daily basis, but we're used to that. The other day, David Broder defied all standards of decency and wrote such a column. It isn't that I'm a fan of David Broder - far from it. In fact, the "Dean" of the Beltway press corps has proven himself to be a despicable suckup to power for the decade or more I've been aware of his existence -- arrogant and ill-informed, passing off a toned-down version of Sally Quinn inanities as The Sensible Middle. But, nonetheless, this one threw me. Consider these paragraphs:
Ah, yes, those racial tensions. Those angry Negroes, with their simmering tensions never far below the surface. If only they could take Essie Mae as a model and just shut the fuck up.
Argh. I think I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Anyway, David E. has some more appropriately intemperate remarks.
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South Carolina has been struggling with an exodus of jobs. "We're winning the war in Iraq," the mayor says, "but we're losing to China and India." The last thing it needs is social strife that scares away investors and employers.
Luckily, Columbia has a lot going for it. A new convention center and hotel are under way. The university is expanding its research center and is designated as a national center for fuel-cell development. The old warehouse district has been revived and looks like Boston or San Francisco, with its apartments and restaurants.
Into this melange of past controversies and hopeful prospects stepped Essie Mae Washington-Williams. Had she spoken with anger about the hypocrisy of a man who espoused separation of the races but exploited a powerless young black woman sexually, she could have stirred the racial tensions never far below the surface. Instead, she spoke kindly of her father's outreach to her and the financial support he provided.
Ah, yes, those racial tensions. Those angry Negroes, with their simmering tensions never far below the surface. If only they could take Essie Mae as a model and just shut the fuck up.
Argh. I think I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Anyway, David E. has some more appropriately intemperate remarks.
Essay
Bernard Chazelle, a Princeton professor who likely cavorts with his colleague and Mao disciple Paul Krugman, has an interesting essay on Bush foreign policy.
Impeach!
According to one poll about a third of Americans think Bush should be impeached over the Iraq lies. Oddly, that's about the same amount who thought Clinton should be impeached for lying about a stained dress.
Anyway, this is a comment on the media more than anything else. For months and years the media elite were flabbergasted about the fact that a couple lies about a blowjob didn't drive the country quite as insane as it drove all of them. We should be, they assured us and themselves, outraged by this fellatious behavior.
Almost as many people think that being lied to about a war is worthy of outrage. I guess it's a start.
Anyway, this is a comment on the media more than anything else. For months and years the media elite were flabbergasted about the fact that a couple lies about a blowjob didn't drive the country quite as insane as it drove all of them. We should be, they assured us and themselves, outraged by this fellatious behavior.
Almost as many people think that being lied to about a war is worthy of outrage. I guess it's a start.
Blast from the Past
So, I received an email earlier from a name which vaguely rang a bell - Evan Gahr. Evan was responding to this post from September, 2002. Quick version - Evan was and is a loyal movement conservative type who had the audacity to (correctly) criticize some comments by theocrat-in-chief Paul Weyrich for being anti-Semitic. He was promptly cast out of good conservative society and strongly chastized by people such as Mona Charen. This google cache of an article by Stanley Crouch pretty much explains it. Alterman also commented here.
In any case, Gahr had come upon the post rather randomly and he had wanted me to post this statement by Paul Weyrich which I had been previously unaware of:
I also added a link to thist post from the original post in case anyone else happens on it.
No word on whether Mona Charen has changed her mind on things.
Of course, I'm not exactly sure how this is any better... but, there he is - Weyrich in his own words.
In any case, Gahr had come upon the post rather randomly and he had wanted me to post this statement by Paul Weyrich which I had been previously unaware of:
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Statement by Paul M. Weyrich, President of the Free Congress Foundation, following his visit to the Holocaust Museum in Washington, D.C. on Friday April 26th, 2002
The visit to the Holocaust Museum was very moving. Once you see what the Jews went through at the time of Nazi Germany, it is so much easier to comprehend why the Jewish people feel they have to fight for their nation the way they do. And it is also more understandable why they are so sensitive to anything they feel is anti-Semitic.
In an unusual irony, the writer Evan Gahr, who once believed I was an anti-Semite, has helped to reconcile me with some in the Jewish community who believed the same of me. They now realize that we are in the vanguard of those who understand the threat that true believing Moslems represent to both Christians and Jews and that all of us who believe in our Judeo-Christian civilization must fight together to preserve it. I am grateful to Mr. Gahr for taking the initiative to enable us to take a special tour of the museum. And I can assure my Jewish friends that I will forever be more sensitive in my own writings to how they think and feel.
I also added a link to thist post from the original post in case anyone else happens on it.
No word on whether Mona Charen has changed her mind on things.
Of course, I'm not exactly sure how this is any better... but, there he is - Weyrich in his own words.
Dean Redux
While I roughly agree with Josh Marshall, it should be pointed out that by the standard he uses none of the major candidates have paid the price of admission. Their failure to raise their hands when asked if Dean was "electable," and Kerry's and Lieberman's regular return back to the issue of Dean's "electability" all make the case that people who would support them wouldn't vote for Dean.
As far as I know, Dean is the only one who keeps getting asked this basic question. He has said he wouldn't run as a 3rd party candidate and he has said that he would support the nominee whoever it was. While I wrote yesterday that I didn't like what Dean had said, it's also the case that the other candidates thus far have failed to communicate this basic minimum degree of unity.
It's actually a much more interesting question to ask of the non-frontrunners than the frontrunner. Maybe it's been asked, but I missed it.
...to be clear, it's a stupid Heather gotcha question, but if it's going to be asked...
As far as I know, Dean is the only one who keeps getting asked this basic question. He has said he wouldn't run as a 3rd party candidate and he has said that he would support the nominee whoever it was. While I wrote yesterday that I didn't like what Dean had said, it's also the case that the other candidates thus far have failed to communicate this basic minimum degree of unity.
It's actually a much more interesting question to ask of the non-frontrunners than the frontrunner. Maybe it's been asked, but I missed it.
...to be clear, it's a stupid Heather gotcha question, but if it's going to be asked...
Comments Back
A few people wrote in to let me know that Haloscan was only not working for me. They apparently deleted my account from their system for some reason. Anyway, the good news is they're back for now. The bad news is that all old comments are at least temporarily unavailable. Oh, and for now, the 1000 character limit has returned...
On Their Own
Our soldiers had better not be asked to lift a finger to help these people if they find themselves in any trouble.
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American Christian missionaries have declared a "war for souls" in Iraq, telling supporters that the formal end of the US-led occupation next June will close an historic "window of opportunity".
Organising in secrecy, and emphasising their humanitarian aid work, Christian groups are pouring into the country, which is 97 per cent Muslim, bearing Arabic Bibles, videos and religious tracts designed to "save" Muslims from their "false" religion.
Mission from god: Jon Hanna and Jackie Cone after they visited Iraq
The International Mission Board, the missionary arm of the Southern Baptists, is one of those leading the charge.
John Brady, the IMB's head for the Middle East and North Africa, this month appealed to the 16 million members of his church, the largest Protestant denomination in America.
"Southern Baptists have prayed for years that Iraq would somehow be opened to the gospel," his appeal began. That "open door" for Christians may soon close.
"Southern Baptists must understand that there is a war for souls under way in Iraq," his bulletin added, listing Islamic leaders and "pseudo-Christian" groups also flooding Iraq as his chief rivals.
No Turkee for Ricks
This stuff really is pretty unbelievable:
Somebody should send Ricks a turkee mousepad.
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When George Bush’s Pentagon doesn’t like what a reporter writes, it attempts a preemptive strike.
In the case of Tom Ricks, military reporter for the Washington Post, the Pentagon took the attack right to the heart of the enemy. Defense Department spokesman Larry DiRita first sent a letter of complaint to the Post; then he met with the paper’s top editors to press his points.
Ricks is one of the most senior defense reporters in the country. He covered military affairs for the Wall Street Journal for 17 years and has been doing the same for the Post since 1999. He’s written two books about the military, one about the Marines and a novel about the US intervention in Afghanistan, published four months before the United States sent in troops.
In his more than two decades covering the military, Ricks has developed many sources, from brass to grunts. This, according to the current Pentagon, is a problem.
The Pentagon’s letter of complaint to Post executive editor Leonard Downie had language charging that Ricks casts his net as widely as possible and e-mails many people.
Details of the complaints were hard to come by. One Pentagon official said in private that Ricks did not give enough credence to official, on-the-record comments that ran counter to the angle of his stories.
Somebody should send Ricks a turkee mousepad.
Beef Futures
Anyone know why they limit the amount that beef future prices can fall in a given day? I understand curbs in the stock market due to automatic program trading, but have no idea why they'd restrict beef futures price changes.
Who Would've Thunk It
A church being becoming more tolerant could actually encourage new members to join.
The Worst Places in America
Calpundit brings our attention to Money Magazine's list of Best Places to Live.
I'll spare you my rant about this issue.
...one nice thing about living in the city is one can usually find open WiFi access somewhere. I'm at the Starbucks at (censored) if anyone wishes to come find me.
I'll spare you my rant about this issue.
...one nice thing about living in the city is one can usually find open WiFi access somewhere. I'm at the Starbucks at (censored) if anyone wishes to come find me.
Brownshirt States of America
Adam Yoshida, who loves to spam me, gives his vision of Utopia.
Not so different from William Lind's.
Not so different from William Lind's.
Sunday, December 28, 2003
Dean Endorses Clark
Well, not really, but there's only one other non-conventional Washington Politician running.
But, joking aside, yellow flag against Dean. The "electability" issue should be off the table, mostly. "I can beat George Bush" is fine. "The other guys can't" is not. This article over-spins what Dean was saying, but I'd prefer something more along the lines of "If I don't get the nomination I'll do anything and everything in my power to put whatever resources I've marshalled behind the candidate who will go head to head against Bush. I plan to devote 2004 for that purpose full time no matter who the nominee is." instead of "I'm worried my fans will take their balls and go home."
...one more comment. There are two things here - one reasonable one not. The idea that Dean supporters, on masse, would stay home on election day in November '04 is either completely false or completely disturbing. In any case, I don't believe it and I'm pretty annoyed that Dean would suggest it. The more I think about it the more annoyed I am. The issue of endorsement transferability is more mild - the obvious point is that the Dean grass roots Campaign Machine isn't necessarily transferable.
The undeniable statement is that any one of these candidate may be more or less likely to inspire any particular voter to go out and vote for them. But, the candidates should at every step encourage their hard core supporters - the ones who are even paying any attention to this nonsense in December '03 - to vote, donate to, and volunteer time to support whoever the nominee is. Any rhetoric which deliberately or not undercuts this idea should be off the table. And, any hard core supporter who wouldn't at least notionally embrace that idea should go to the mirror and start chanting "FOUR MORE YEARS!" for an evening.
In my silly little world, 10 candidates (yes, you too Bob Graham), spend 2004 campaigning, for the winner, with equal fervor as the candidate himself (sorry Ambassador Braun). Yes, I know that's not really going to happen, but the idea of that shouldn't be so ridiculous.
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If I don't win the nomination, where do you think those million and a half people, half a million on the Internet, where do you think they're going to go?" he said during a meeting with reporters. "I don't know where they're going to go. They're certainly not going to vote for a conventional Washington politician."
...
Dean repeatedly has said he would endorse the eventual Democratic nominee and urge his supporters to do the same. But he said there are limits to the practical impact of his endorsement.
"That's not transferable. That's why endorsements are great but they don't guarantee anything," Dean said.
But, joking aside, yellow flag against Dean. The "electability" issue should be off the table, mostly. "I can beat George Bush" is fine. "The other guys can't" is not. This article over-spins what Dean was saying, but I'd prefer something more along the lines of "If I don't get the nomination I'll do anything and everything in my power to put whatever resources I've marshalled behind the candidate who will go head to head against Bush. I plan to devote 2004 for that purpose full time no matter who the nominee is." instead of "I'm worried my fans will take their balls and go home."
...one more comment. There are two things here - one reasonable one not. The idea that Dean supporters, on masse, would stay home on election day in November '04 is either completely false or completely disturbing. In any case, I don't believe it and I'm pretty annoyed that Dean would suggest it. The more I think about it the more annoyed I am. The issue of endorsement transferability is more mild - the obvious point is that the Dean grass roots Campaign Machine isn't necessarily transferable.
The undeniable statement is that any one of these candidate may be more or less likely to inspire any particular voter to go out and vote for them. But, the candidates should at every step encourage their hard core supporters - the ones who are even paying any attention to this nonsense in December '03 - to vote, donate to, and volunteer time to support whoever the nominee is. Any rhetoric which deliberately or not undercuts this idea should be off the table. And, any hard core supporter who wouldn't at least notionally embrace that idea should go to the mirror and start chanting "FOUR MORE YEARS!" for an evening.
In my silly little world, 10 candidates (yes, you too Bob Graham), spend 2004 campaigning, for the winner, with equal fervor as the candidate himself (sorry Ambassador Braun). Yes, I know that's not really going to happen, but the idea of that shouldn't be so ridiculous.
The Coming Year
Right wing columnists have already hit an almost hysterical pitch. This is going to be the nastiest year in media/politics in my conscious lifetime. So, get ready...
And they say we're the hate-filled party...
And they say we're the hate-filled party...
Spin Recycled
Swopa notes that the AP is getting 5 month old spin.
Comrade Max notes that there isn't much daylight between George Bush and Dennis Kucinich with respect to Iraq - at least if we limit ourselves to the issues which actually get discussed in the media.
Comrade Max notes that there isn't much daylight between George Bush and Dennis Kucinich with respect to Iraq - at least if we limit ourselves to the issues which actually get discussed in the media.
All's Fair
Kos has an interesting post on the impact of the ubiquitous cell phone on the Iowa Caucus process.
I see nothing wrong about such strategic maneuvering per se, but I'm not entirely clear on the expected result. Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter nearly as much as they pundits all pretend they do so that they can direct their media operations at 2 states and ignore the rest. It's the next set of states which really seems to matter. A win in Iowa and NH followed by a thrashing the following Tuesday would actually be a signal that it might be time to drop out, while the reverse would clearly be seen as a big "come from behind" win.
...just an additional comment. I don't yet think Dean is inevitable, but with each passing day, for better or for worse, I think that inevitability becomes more likely. I do think some people, myself included, are a bit too quick to jump on every tactic of his opponents as being of the "circular firing squad" variety. Not all criticisms of your rivals or campaign tactics will have the net effect of bringing the whole party down a notch or two. But, the types of criticisms which can have that effect - and since Dean is the perceived frontrunner they are directed at him - are the ones which play into the standard Media Stereotypes about Democrats. Immoral, overly secular, soft on crime, soft on defense, unelectable, gonna raise your taxes, and inconsistent. The last two are a bit of a grey area of course. A candidate can genuinely be inconsistent, which should be fair game, or they can be inconsistent if one is Nit Russerting or Nit Picklering.* I expect Russert and Pickler to do this kind of thing, but not the candidates. Raise your taxes is a grey area too. The truth is every candidate - including George Bush - come '05 or '06 at the latest is going to "raise taxes." The only question is which taxes and who will bear the brunt. With Bush it could be the indirect "Bush tax" - massive increases in state and local taxes following massive Federal spending cuts - but it won't be any smaller. Spending as a percentage of GDP isn't going to fall. So, it's fair to say that your tax plan which, say, preserves the child tax credits of the "Bush tax cuts" is better for "working families" than is Dean's as long as you don't pretend that "Dean will raise taxes" while you won't.
*Nit Russerting being the repeated assault onto an Democratic interview subject of pairs of out of context quotes, combined with calls to resolve the perceived (by Russert) inconsistencies to his satisfcation. Nit Picklering being the writing of news stories admonishing Democratic candidates for daring to not explain their own inconsistencies, as demonstrated by Nedra Pickler by the inclusion of some utterly irrelevant detail.
I see nothing wrong about such strategic maneuvering per se, but I'm not entirely clear on the expected result. Iowa and New Hampshire don't matter nearly as much as they pundits all pretend they do so that they can direct their media operations at 2 states and ignore the rest. It's the next set of states which really seems to matter. A win in Iowa and NH followed by a thrashing the following Tuesday would actually be a signal that it might be time to drop out, while the reverse would clearly be seen as a big "come from behind" win.
...just an additional comment. I don't yet think Dean is inevitable, but with each passing day, for better or for worse, I think that inevitability becomes more likely. I do think some people, myself included, are a bit too quick to jump on every tactic of his opponents as being of the "circular firing squad" variety. Not all criticisms of your rivals or campaign tactics will have the net effect of bringing the whole party down a notch or two. But, the types of criticisms which can have that effect - and since Dean is the perceived frontrunner they are directed at him - are the ones which play into the standard Media Stereotypes about Democrats. Immoral, overly secular, soft on crime, soft on defense, unelectable, gonna raise your taxes, and inconsistent. The last two are a bit of a grey area of course. A candidate can genuinely be inconsistent, which should be fair game, or they can be inconsistent if one is Nit Russerting or Nit Picklering.* I expect Russert and Pickler to do this kind of thing, but not the candidates. Raise your taxes is a grey area too. The truth is every candidate - including George Bush - come '05 or '06 at the latest is going to "raise taxes." The only question is which taxes and who will bear the brunt. With Bush it could be the indirect "Bush tax" - massive increases in state and local taxes following massive Federal spending cuts - but it won't be any smaller. Spending as a percentage of GDP isn't going to fall. So, it's fair to say that your tax plan which, say, preserves the child tax credits of the "Bush tax cuts" is better for "working families" than is Dean's as long as you don't pretend that "Dean will raise taxes" while you won't.
*Nit Russerting being the repeated assault onto an Democratic interview subject of pairs of out of context quotes, combined with calls to resolve the perceived (by Russert) inconsistencies to his satisfcation. Nit Picklering being the writing of news stories admonishing Democratic candidates for daring to not explain their own inconsistencies, as demonstrated by Nedra Pickler by the inclusion of some utterly irrelevant detail.
Centcom Follies
Centcom used to post their casualty reports on the front pages with the rest of their news releases. Then they moved it to a separate page, and put the link to it down at the bottom of the main page. It's actually a form - you can change the number of days back for which you'd like to see reports. Clicking on the casualties link used to bring up the report with a default of "5 days," after which you could change the number and get a different report. Now the link defaults, at least for me, to 1 day.
Bad George Will
Bad Washington Post:
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The columnist George F. Will is mistaken that he did not need to reveal, in a March column in which he defended Conrad M. Black's political views on Iraq, that Mr. Black had paid him a $25,000 per diem to attend an advisory group that Mr. Black organized.
When a syndicated journalist writes favorably about a benefactor, that is very much the business of Mr. Will's editors and readers.
The code of ethics of the National Conference of Editorial Writers, the organization of editorial page editors and writers, puts it plainly: "The writer should be constantly alert to conflicts of interest, real or apparent, including those that may arise from financial holdings, secondary employment, holding public office or involvement in political, civic or other organizations. Timely public disclosure can minimize suspicion. Editors should seek to hold syndicates to these standards."
GILBERT CRANBERG
Longboat Key, Fla., Dec. 23, 2003
The writer is former editor of the editorial page of The Des Moines Register and former chairman of the professional standards committee of the National Conference of Editorial Writers.
Small Victory, Perhaps
But these people are absolutely insane:
Why don't they just have the whole video be of footage from the Crystal Cathedral, if they're going to be showing footage of things which have absolutely nothing to do with the Lincoln Memorial.
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In a press release yesterday, Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER), a government-watchdog group, said that because of pressure from conservative groups, the National Park Service agreed to remove from the tape all scenes depicting gay and abortion rights rallies. "The Park Service leadership now caters exclusively to conservative Christian fundamentalist groups," PEER executive director Jeff Ruch said in the release.
But today that story has changed. "We have been assured that they are redoing the tape, but are not stripping out scenes of gay and lesbian events at the Lincoln Memorial, because to do so would be historically inaccurate," said Winne Stachelberg, political director at the Human Rights Campaign, a national gay rights group. Stachelberg told the Gay.com/PlanetOut.com Network that National Park Service Chief of Public Affairs, David Barna, made those reassurances to her this morning.
"It certainly sounds as if the park service is getting pressure from right-wing extremists groups to drop images of the gay community and add other images," Stachelberg added.
As part of its update, the National Park Service plans to add scenes including rallies by the Promise Keepers, a fundamentalist Christian men's group, and by pro-life groups to the video.
To do so, however, may not be historically accurate after all. Those rallies did not occur at the Lincoln Memorial or even on the nearby Mall, said Bill Line, a spokesperson for the National Park Service.
Why don't they just have the whole video be of footage from the Crystal Cathedral, if they're going to be showing footage of things which have absolutely nothing to do with the Lincoln Memorial.
Saturday, December 27, 2003
Reviews
Finally saw Far From Heaven. Was good. Go watch it.
Am also almost all the way through the first season of the BBC's The Office, which someone was kind enough to get for me. It's great. Went ahead and ordered the second season, which is available from www.amazon.co.uk, (shipping is actually cheap) but only do so if you have a way to watch non-region 1 DVDs.
Am also almost all the way through the first season of the BBC's The Office, which someone was kind enough to get for me. It's great. Went ahead and ordered the second season, which is available from www.amazon.co.uk, (shipping is actually cheap) but only do so if you have a way to watch non-region 1 DVDs.
Changing Plans
New toy not as fun as they thought
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BAGHDAD, Dec. 27 -- The United States has backed away from several of its more ambitious initiatives to transform Iraq's economy, political system and security forces as attacks on U.S. troops have escalated and the timetable for ending the civil occupation has accelerated.
Plans to privatize state-owned businesses -- a key part of a larger Bush administration goal to replace the socialist economy of deposed president Saddam Hussein with a free-market system -- have been dropped over the past few months. So too has a demand that Iraqis write a constitution before a transfer of sovereignty.
With the administration's plans tempered by time and threat, the U.S. administrator of Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, and his deputies are now focused on forging compromises with Iraqi leaders and combating a persistent insurgency in order to meet a July 1 deadline to transfer sovereignty to a provisional government.
"There's no question that many of the big-picture items have been pushed down the list or erased completely," said a senior U.S. official involved in Iraq's reconstruction, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Right now, everyone's attention is focused [on] doing what we need to do to hand over sovereignty by next summer."
The new approach, U.S. diplomats said, calls into question the prospects for initiatives touted by conservative strategists to fashion Iraq into a secular, pluralistic, market-driven nation. While the diplomats maintain those goals are still attainable, the senior official said, "ideology has become subordinate to the schedule."
"The Americans are coming to understand that they cannot change everything they want to change in Iraq," said Adel Abdel-Mehdi, a senior leader of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, a Shiite Muslim political party that which is cooperating with the U.S. occupation authority. "They need to let the Iraqi people decide the big issues."
Capital Gang Predictions, Dec. 2002
And they pay these people?
-
And now our predictions for 2003.
First, the biggest crisis next year.
Bob Novak.
NOVAK: Assuming that we are going to attack Iraq, the absolute revulsion in Islam. The whole world, Islamic world all around the globe, what the reaction is against the West and the U.S.
O'BEIRNE: Mark Russell.
RUSSELL: Well, there's this whole thing surrounding Korea, Kate. Now, Bob Novak fought the Korean War to defend South Korea from North Korea, making South Korea what it is today, the country we buy American flags from, because they're cheaper than the ones made in China.
O'BEIRNE: Your prediction for the biggest crisis, Margaret?
CARLSON: Well, I think Iraq and North Korea will be big foreign policy crises. The biggest domestic crisis will be a political one, it will be Al Sharpton running for president. He will be more trouble to Democrats than Trent Lott was to Republicans, and Democrats will not be able to get rid of him, however.
RUSSELL: You know, when he was in India recently, he was the first showboat to go down the Ganges River?
CARLSON: And Democrats would like to keep him there.
O'BEIRNE: In Austin, Texas, Mark Shields, your biggest crisis.
SHIELDS: Biggest crisis, Kate, just to let the record show that Mark Russell, he talked about Korea, Mark Russell dodged the military draft. How did he do it? He did it my joining the United States Marine Corps. That's how clever and true this guy is.
But I do, I do want to say...
RUSSELL: And like Mark Shields, we both saw combat in Tijuana.
SHIELDS: That's right. Hey, thank God for penicillin, Mark.
But let's get one thing straight. The biggest crisis, Bob Novak has put his finger on it, is going to be the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will look like a lovers' spat at the end of this year, I'm fearful.
O'BEIRNE: I predict the biggest crisis next year will be the axis of evil. When George Bush so labeled those three countries in January, his critics thought it was random and overly dramatic, and now we're seeing the triple threat, possibly nuclear, of North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. He was awfully prescient.
Next, what will this prescient president's approval ratings be one year from now, December 2003, Mark?
RUSSELL: OK, what is it now?
O'BEIRNE: Low 60s, mid-60s.
RUSSELL: OK, I really predict that in a year from now, it will be about the same, unless, God forbid, al Qaeda hits us again, at which time Bush's ratings go back to 92.
O'BEIRNE: Margaret Carlson, where will he be?
CARLSON: Yes, I say up to 92, at least higher, if we're in Iraq and it's successful. If, however, it's a quagmire, low 40s.
O'BEIRNE: In Austin, Mark Shields.
SHIELDS: Kate, proving that this prescient president cannot defy the laws of gravity perpetually, his -- the president's job rating December of 2003 will be 49 percent favorable.
O'BEIRNE: Huh. Bob, I am more optimistic on the president's behalf than Mark. I give him a precise 61 a year from now. And what is your prediction?
NOVAK: I'm assuming there'll be a war, and the war will be over and won, and he'll start slipping. He'll be around 53 percent. Third year is a bad year for a president. RUSSELL: Well, if the war's completely successful, it'll be Bush's war. If it is completely unsuccessful, it'll be Clinton's war.
O'BEIRNE: Margaret Carlson, who will lead the Democratic presidential polls one year from now, December 2003?
CARLSON: I predict that Senator Lieberman will get the Gore vote without being Gore. He will have the family values licked against the Republicans. He will have homeland security locked up, given that it was his bill. And he's in the Mideast right now, and I think he will have the Jewish vote.
So I give him the Democratic base and the lead out of the gate.
O'BEIRNE: Joe Lieberman?
In Austin, Mark Shields, who's your pick for the top Democratic in a year?
SHIELDS: Kate, I'll tell you, because we rerun the last election, the premium will be upon who -- which Democrat can emerge as unorthodox, as the John McCain of 2003? And I'm going to predict an unorthodox selection, and that is Dick Gephardt, the House Democratic leader, understands this is his last, best, and only chance, and he better say something bold and do something daring.
O'BEIRNE: I'm going to guess that a year from now, we would have moved beyond name recognition, and one of the president's sharpest critics on foreign and defense policy's going to be John Kerry, and I think that'll be popular with the base. I'll pick John Kerry.
Bob?
NOVAK: I will, I will too, but for a different reason. I think that he has two people's votes. He has his votes, and he has Bob Kerrey's votes, and you add that up, and he'll be in front.
Where's Nedra?
I truly hope this isn't just a holiday break.
damnit. She heard me. She's back. "When Dean criticized Bush for X, he neglected to tell us about Y which isn't really the same thing but..."
damnit. She heard me. She's back. "When Dean criticized Bush for X, he neglected to tell us about Y which isn't really the same thing but..."
'Tis the Season
If you're in any possession of some excess holiday cheer, a little generosity directed towards Jim Capozzola might be appropriate.
No one really expects to make substantial money blogging, but it nonetheless does take a lot of time and the occasional tip for all the free pie is much appreciated.
So, today is give a tip to the Rittenhouse Review day.
Just click here:
No one really expects to make substantial money blogging, but it nonetheless does take a lot of time and the occasional tip for all the free pie is much appreciated.
So, today is give a tip to the Rittenhouse Review day.
Just click here:
Release the Prisoners
It's odd when the gropenfuhrer proposes what might be a good thing but then you have to realize that, no, wait, it's probably a really stupid thing. In a true "only Nixon can go to China" moment, Arnold is proposing releasing up to 1/3 of the California prison population. The thing is, when something like this is being proposed as a budget-cutting measure rather than a "good public policy" measure they're bound to get it wrong.
I'm all for speeding up the release of many/most/all non-violent drug offenders but you obviously just can't do it all at once, and you can't do it assuming that it will magically suddenly save lots of money. Our society has put up so many barriers preventing the re-integration of previously incarcerated felons into "normal" life that one can't imagine a successful mass prison release program without spending quite a bit of additional moneys on reintegration programs.
That isn't to say such considerations should stand in the way of what is the right thing to do - releasing nonviolent drug offenders. But, such policies have consequences which need to be addressed. It ain't going to, in the short run, plug the budget hole.
I'm all for speeding up the release of many/most/all non-violent drug offenders but you obviously just can't do it all at once, and you can't do it assuming that it will magically suddenly save lots of money. Our society has put up so many barriers preventing the re-integration of previously incarcerated felons into "normal" life that one can't imagine a successful mass prison release program without spending quite a bit of additional moneys on reintegration programs.
That isn't to say such considerations should stand in the way of what is the right thing to do - releasing nonviolent drug offenders. But, such policies have consequences which need to be addressed. It ain't going to, in the short run, plug the budget hole.
Horrible
Regarding the Earthquake in Iran, what Big Media Matt says. It's horrible, there isn't much to say about it other than that.
David Brooks Reputation Watch
Who would've thought that someone, upon getting a NYT column, could've destroyed their reputation faster than Abe Rosenthal did.
Friday, December 26, 2003
George Will Consistency Watch
George Bush made a bunch of recess appointments today.
Here's George Will on March 26, 1998:
Ah, the good old days, when Will was a big fan of advise and consent.
We're waiting Mr. Will.
Here's George Will on March 26, 1998:
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On Dec. 5 Byrd wrote to the president, arguing that a recess appointment of Lee would be an abuse of the constitutional provision permitting such appointments. (Article II, Section 2, Clause 3: "The President shall have power to fill up all vacancies that may happen during the recess of the Senate, by granting commissions which shall expire at the end of their next session.") Byrd argued that the recess appointment provision was intended to allow normal government functioning in the early days of the young Republic, when transportation was difficult and recesses often lasted several months.
Byrd said there was no emergency justifying a recess appointment and that the next session of Congress would begin in a few weeks. So a recess appointment "would smack of the desire to circumvent the regular nomination process."
...
Byrd notes that of the 320 positions in Cabinet-level departments that are subject to Senate confirmation, 59 (18 percent) are currently being filled in violation of the Vacancies Act. Thus the Senate's advise-and-consent responsibility, which the Supreme Court has called "among the significant structural safeguards of the constitutional scheme," is being vitiated by the Clinton administration's distinctive lawlessness. And as Byrd concedes, the Senate's passivity makes it complicit in this assault on the system of checks and balances based on the separation of powers.
The Senate should pass his legislation to affirm and enforce the fact that the Vacancies Act supersedes all other provisions of law. And surely the Senate could find a way and summon the will to evict Lee from the office he illegitimately occupies.
Ah, the good old days, when Will was a big fan of advise and consent.
We're waiting Mr. Will.
Sentence First, Trial Later
America through the looking glass.
... anyway, we all know how this one will progress. The right wing media will spin this as Dean loves Bin Laden. The more "reasonable" pundits like the TNR crowd will then pull a Sam Donaldson and say, well, you know, of course he's right, really, but he shouldn't say things quite in that way. After all, these days things like due process just aren't very popular and Dean should know that. Of course, they won't be referring to what he actually said, but rather how what he said was spun...
Welcome to campaign '04. It's gonna be a fun ride.
And, if asked about this Dean should say something along the lines of "How dare you question my desire to bring the 9/11 perpetrators to trial. I've been saying for months we need to devote our efforts to getting Bin Laden. It's absolutely un-American to suggest that anyone, no matter how heinous the crime or obvious the guilt, doesn't and shouldn't deserve a fair trial under our Judicial system, as our Founders, in their wisdom, desired. Fuck you Judy Woodruff."
Well, maybe not that last part.
... anyway, we all know how this one will progress. The right wing media will spin this as Dean loves Bin Laden. The more "reasonable" pundits like the TNR crowd will then pull a Sam Donaldson and say, well, you know, of course he's right, really, but he shouldn't say things quite in that way. After all, these days things like due process just aren't very popular and Dean should know that. Of course, they won't be referring to what he actually said, but rather how what he said was spun...
Welcome to campaign '04. It's gonna be a fun ride.
And, if asked about this Dean should say something along the lines of "How dare you question my desire to bring the 9/11 perpetrators to trial. I've been saying for months we need to devote our efforts to getting Bin Laden. It's absolutely un-American to suggest that anyone, no matter how heinous the crime or obvious the guilt, doesn't and shouldn't deserve a fair trial under our Judicial system, as our Founders, in their wisdom, desired. Fuck you Judy Woodruff."
Well, maybe not that last part.
Pessimism Watch
So, I didn't go all the way back, but doing a check through a Nexis search of news transcripts back through October, the first appearance of a talking head referring to Dean as "pessimistic" or discussing his "pessimism" was Laura Ingraham on the Friday Dec. 19 Hardball, followed by Mary Matalin on the Sunday Dec. 21 Meet the Press.
Look for it to be coming out of every Republican's mouth soon, and then it will increasingly creep into "objective" reporting. The process will go something like this. First, they'll quote Bush campaign sources describing Dean as "pessimistic." Next, they'll move onto Democratic campaign sources, often anonymous, describing Dean as "pessimistic." Next, they'll stop bothering getting the quote and just write things like, "Some have criticized Dean for his unappealing pessimism..." And, then, finally, process complete, campaign analysis pieces in print and the "objective journalists" on the roundtable shows, will just write/say things like "Dean's pessimistic rhetoric..." By the end no discussion or news story about Dean will see the light of day without the word "pessimism."
...Dec. 26 - Ollie North goes for pessimistic.
Look for it to be coming out of every Republican's mouth soon, and then it will increasingly creep into "objective" reporting. The process will go something like this. First, they'll quote Bush campaign sources describing Dean as "pessimistic." Next, they'll move onto Democratic campaign sources, often anonymous, describing Dean as "pessimistic." Next, they'll stop bothering getting the quote and just write things like, "Some have criticized Dean for his unappealing pessimism..." And, then, finally, process complete, campaign analysis pieces in print and the "objective journalists" on the roundtable shows, will just write/say things like "Dean's pessimistic rhetoric..." By the end no discussion or news story about Dean will see the light of day without the word "pessimism."
...Dec. 26 - Ollie North goes for pessimistic.
Rosen on the Heathers
Jay Rosen has a pretty good analysis of campaign journalism.
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In his 1990 book about presidential campaigns, (See How They Run) Paul Taylor, then a political correspondent for the Washington Post, talked openly about the press as one key actor in "the pageant of democracy." Taylor knew from experience. He was the one who in 1988 asked Gary Hart whether Hart had committed adultery, a moment of fateful expansion in the "open up, candidate" exam Kurtz is stiill writing about today.
Taylor told stories explaining how the press had played the role of sorter for the public-- which means in place of. In 1988, for example, one reason journalists were so obsessed with character questions was the large number of candidates competing for press attention. He writes:-
Somebody had to prune the field, to "get rid of the funny ones," as one 1988 campaign manager put it. There were too many choices, too much information to present, and "the culture was too apolitical" to sustain interest in such a large number of candidates. With the party bosses out of the equation, there was a huge vacuum at the front end of the process. Who would screen the field? The assignment fell to the press -- there was no one else.
If it's true the press plays a vetting role in the campaign, then it must be true that the press is a player. Or to put it another way, political journalists have come to understand themselves as supplier of a service--vetting the field--that the body politic cannot handle itself, because of high information costs and low motivation to bear them. "Too many choices, too much information to present." -
Plame Goes On
And the administration is apparently still making shit up.
-
Wilson, a prominent critic of the administration over Iraq, has said that was done to retaliate against him for continuing to publicize his conclusion, after a 2002 mission for the CIA, that there was little evidence Iraq had sought uranium in Africa to develop nuclear weapons. Sources said the CIA is angry about the circulation of a still-classified document to conservative news outlets suggesting Plame had a role in arranging her husband's trip to Africa for the CIA. The document, written by a State Department official who works for its Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), describes a meeting at the CIA where the Niger trip by Wilson was discussed, said a senior administration official who has seen it.
CIA officials have challenged the accuracy of the INR document, the official said, because the agency officer identified as talking about Plame's alleged role in arranging Wilson's trip could not have attended the meeting.
Bush EPA Loves Death
The EPA has expressed disappointment that, by their own estimates, 19,000 lives will now be saved.
... an alert reader notes that the paragraph from the NYT article quoted by Demagogue is no longer actually in the article. Down the memory hole...
It's in the cache at google news, but not at the article it links to.
The new paragraph appears to be:
The old one was:
you can email their ombudsman Danny Okrent at public@nytimes.com and ask him about this.
... an alert reader notes that the paragraph from the NYT article quoted by Demagogue is no longer actually in the article. Down the memory hole...
It's in the cache at google news, but not at the article it links to.
The new paragraph appears to be:
-
The Environmental Protection Agency, which had proposed the new rule, said in a statement that it was "disappointed with the court's decision" and that neither the regulation nor the court's stay of it would have much effect on emissions.
The old one was:
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The Environmental Protection Agency expressed disappointment with the court's decision but did not say whether it would be appealed. The court order, while only two pages in length, was a strong statement in one of the most contentious environmental and public health battles of the last several years — whether aging coal-fired power plants must install controls as they increase their pollution emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency has estimated that full enforcement of existing rules on power plant pollution would save 19,000 lives per year.
you can email their ombudsman Danny Okrent at public@nytimes.com and ask him about this.
Thursday, December 25, 2003
Merry Xmas From Miss. Terrorists
Link:
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OCEAN SPRINGS, Miss. (AP) — An Atlanta man died of a gunshot wound Thursday after his car was fired upon by occupants of another vehicle on Interstate 10 on the Gulf Coast.
Sgt. Joe Gazzo of the Mississippi Highway Patrol identified the victim as 40-year-old Datel Ghanshyam. Four other family members, all adults, were unhurt, Gazzo said.
...
About 7 a.m. Thursday, Gazzo said they left casinos, getting back on I-10 East in Ocean Springs. Soon after they merged onto the highway, a small, blue imported car with a loud, large aftermarket muffler, came up alongside the family, repeatedly swerving close to them, then getting in front of them and slowing down.
"Harassing them with actions of the car, you could say," Gazzo said.
Gazzo said witnesses told investigators that one of the occupants of the harassing car then got on a cell phone and apparently called another vehicle, a brown sports utility vehicle, which pulled alongside the Atlanta family and opened fire with an automatic weapon.
Gazzo said the family's vehicle was hit eight times. He said one of the shots hit Ghanshyam under the arm, killing him instantly.
(yeah, i know, wrong state... was going from the news source..)
Merry Xmas from Eric Alterman
Remember all those "people just don't like Al Gore" articles? Remember, when John Kerry was the presumed frontrunner we had all those "people just don't like John Kerry" articles. Remember, briefly, when Clark entered the race and surged ahead we had all those "people just don't like Wesley Clark articles." The reasons sometimes varied a bit - but, it's always some combination of too aloof, too elite, too abrasive, too ambitious, etc...
And, so, yes, the "people just don't like Howard Dean" articles are just the same. I don't know why they just don't skip to "people just don't like Democrats" and be done with it. And, contrary to what some thing - if Joe Lieberman were the frontrunner we'd have a bunch of "people just don't like Joe Lieberman" articles.
These articles are never based on any actual facts, any actual reporting, or anything that can be inferred from polls. It's just the reporters' inner Heathers believing they speak for the world, or occasionally, Friedman style, finding "man on the street" quotes which fit their preconceptions. Here's Alterman:
And, so, yes, the "people just don't like Howard Dean" articles are just the same. I don't know why they just don't skip to "people just don't like Democrats" and be done with it. And, contrary to what some thing - if Joe Lieberman were the frontrunner we'd have a bunch of "people just don't like Joe Lieberman" articles.
These articles are never based on any actual facts, any actual reporting, or anything that can be inferred from polls. It's just the reporters' inner Heathers believing they speak for the world, or occasionally, Friedman style, finding "man on the street" quotes which fit their preconceptions. Here's Alterman:
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While the Post editors and Brooks speak for hard-line neocons, Dean receives no less abuse at the hands of many genuine liberals. My colleague at the Center for American Progress, Matthew Miller, attended the speech and found it lacking, not in substance, which he thought properly Clintonian, but in presentation. "When Dean barked it out, it felt smaller and shabbier, as if he were lecturing us on simple facts we ought to have known." Miller worries at length about what it means that Dean accidentally thanked US soldiers for their "services" rather than "service." Jonathan Chait, so obsessed he now operates an anti-Dean blog at The New Republic, also admits that the position that so exercised the Post pooh-bahs is "narrowly true." Chait's problem with Dean, and I quote, is that the Vermont governor "gives off the vibe that he likes to equivocate about the bad guys rather than recognize them for what they are" (what a bummer that Dean dude is...).
ABC's Sam Donaldson made the same silly point, admitting that "in context, you know what he's saying," but when normally perspicacious pundits like Miller and Chait talk in terms of "feelings" and "vibes," something more than policy disputes are at work. Howard Kurtz, the Washington Post's walking conflict of interest and barometer of conventional wisdom-- named by the American Conservative Union as one of the most reliable reporters--offers up a clue to the journalistic zeitgeist when he complains of Dean, "Reporters who have spent hours with Dean express surprise that he never asks a single question about them." (Would Kurtz feel better if Dean said, "So, Howie, does CNN pay you more to report on the Post or does the Post pay you more to report on CNN?")
Merry Xmas from CNN
We had two hours of "you're fat."
Now we're having two hours of "you're old and ugly."
"You're a fucking moron" must be up next, though maybe that's the effective subtitle of the entire schedule.
...speaking of CNN, anyone seen the dramatic promo for their campaign '04 coverage? It's a series of shots of all of the Dem candidates looking very very angry, followed by a smiling and waving Bush.
Now we're having two hours of "you're old and ugly."
"You're a fucking moron" must be up next, though maybe that's the effective subtitle of the entire schedule.
...speaking of CNN, anyone seen the dramatic promo for their campaign '04 coverage? It's a series of shots of all of the Dem candidates looking very very angry, followed by a smiling and waving Bush.
Merry Xmas from Republicans and the Meat Lobby
Link:
-
WASHINGTON - Legislation to keep meat from downed animals off American kitchen tables was scuttled — for the second time in as many years — as Congress labored unsuccessfully earlier this month to pass a catchall agency spending bill.
Now, in the wake of the apparent discovery of the first mad-cow case in the United States, the author of the House version of the cattle provision wants to press the issue anew when Congress returns Jan. 20 from its winter recess. The massive, $373 billion spending bill covering several government agencies is still pending in the Senate.
"I said on the floor of the House that you will rue the day that because of the greed of the industry to make a few extra pennies from 130,000 head, the industry would sacrifice the safety of the American people," said Rep. Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y., chief House sponsor. "It's so pound foolish."
The provision dealing with downed cattle didn't even make it into the compromise version of the legislation that House and Senate conferees brought before Congress late in the year.
Wednesday, December 24, 2003
Merry Christmas
Something to make the baby Jesus smile.
At a previous place of employment someone who had worked there had been recently released after having been incarcerated for a long time due to a wrongful conviction. I never had a chance to speak to him, but just seeing him around filled me with profound shame. Justice will never be perfect, but too often people are locked up not for "honest mistakes" but for police or DA malfeasance.
At a previous place of employment someone who had worked there had been recently released after having been incarcerated for a long time due to a wrongful conviction. I never had a chance to speak to him, but just seeing him around filled me with profound shame. Justice will never be perfect, but too often people are locked up not for "honest mistakes" but for police or DA malfeasance.
Default
Citizen of Canuckistan, Adam Yoshida, has another brilliant idea.
I'm increasingly thinking that Mr. Yoshida is just a Turing Test of sorts, but just in case he isn't...
Dear Adam,
Any Chinese citizen in possession of a US government bond would have no problems selling it at a fair market price to a non-Chinese citizen. So, aside from adding a whopping risk premium onto interest rates on our government borrowing, your plan would do little to punish our "enemies."
Love,
Atrios
P.S. It would also likely cause the value of the dollar to be cut in half on international currency markets, and generally cause widespread economic catastrophe. But, we sure would've showed them commies who would have no trouble redeeming their bonds.
I'm increasingly thinking that Mr. Yoshida is just a Turing Test of sorts, but just in case he isn't...
Dear Adam,
Any Chinese citizen in possession of a US government bond would have no problems selling it at a fair market price to a non-Chinese citizen. So, aside from adding a whopping risk premium onto interest rates on our government borrowing, your plan would do little to punish our "enemies."
Love,
Atrios
P.S. It would also likely cause the value of the dollar to be cut in half on international currency markets, and generally cause widespread economic catastrophe. But, we sure would've showed them commies who would have no trouble redeeming their bonds.
What the Hell
So this CNN reporter is doing a big hit job on Amtrak because people aren't being asked to submit to body cavity searches before they board the trains or something. Basically she's whining that you don't have to jump through hoops to get on an Amtrak train as you would boarding a plane.
Newsflash: Amtrak trains aren't much different than most commuter rail systems all over the country other than the fact that they tend to go a bit farther. You want airport-style security on all of them too?
Newsflash: Amtrak trains aren't much different than most commuter rail systems all over the country other than the fact that they tend to go a bit farther. You want airport-style security on all of them too?
DNC
The DNC finally fixed up their donation tracking system for their epatriots program. So far people have donated $13,540.46 to the DNC through the boot bush link to the left (including a schockingly generous donation this morning.) Only $87,000 more and I get to go to the Dem convention!
... on a related note, if any publication or organization wants to cover expenses and write me a decent paycheck to go blog the whole thing, that could be fun too...
... on a related note, if any publication or organization wants to cover expenses and write me a decent paycheck to go blog the whole thing, that could be fun too...
Comments
Not working. Don't know why. I assume they'll begin working again at some point.
...working
...working
Taptacular
Over at TAPPED Big Media Matt says a lot of what needs to be said about the DLC. In some ways the DLC is a lot like Joe Lieberman - a hell of a lot more liberal in stated policy positions and votes than most people give him credit for. But, in politics as in many things, sometimes emphasis is everything. In 2003 it's really rather silly to be too concerned about Democrats appearing to be "too lefty" when the Republicans are passing an agenda, with the help of conservative Democrats, that the DLC doesn't actually support. The only way to be an opposition party is to, well, oppose. That would be different if the Dems controlled either the House or the Senate, but they don't.
As for their hissy fit about Howard Dean, I really don't know what to make of that. I have no idea if Howard Dean is the guy with the most chance to win, but disingenuous arguments against that make it appear that they're more concerned with Dean losing than with Bush losing. Any organization with the name "Democratic" in the title should have realized that at some point one of these guys is going to be the nominee. Spending months blasting the perceived frontrunner means that come '04 they can either shut the hell up or endorse George Bush.
As for their hissy fit about Howard Dean, I really don't know what to make of that. I have no idea if Howard Dean is the guy with the most chance to win, but disingenuous arguments against that make it appear that they're more concerned with Dean losing than with Bush losing. Any organization with the name "Democratic" in the title should have realized that at some point one of these guys is going to be the nominee. Spending months blasting the perceived frontrunner means that come '04 they can either shut the hell up or endorse George Bush.
Stupid White House Tricks
Can anyone even begin to comprehend this paragraph:
Look, media, everybody - it's time to just come right out and say it. CONDI RICE IS AN INCOMPETENT CORRUPT LIAR.
-
The source said that at the time of the State of the Union speech, there was no organized system at the White House to vet intelligence, and the informal system that was followed did not work in the case of that speech. The White House has since established procedures for handling intelligence in presidential speeches by including a CIA officer in the speechwriting process.
Look, media, everybody - it's time to just come right out and say it. CONDI RICE IS AN INCOMPETENT CORRUPT LIAR.
Stupid Airport Tricks
Back when I lived out there I had to deal with LAX's ridiculous post-9/11 security precautions. The worst one, which they've brought back, was the banning of all private cars from the terminal area. Aside from the fact that the airport did not have a sufficient external parking/shuttle system to cope with even a fraction of the passengers, there was a minor hole in this plan - a hole big enough to drive a cab through. Cabs still had pretty unfettered access. And, given that concerns were and are primarily about Arab/Muslim terrorists, and every single cab in LA appears to be driven by recent Arab immigrants...
Tuesday, December 23, 2003
Tucker in Iraq
This is an interesting perspective:
-
CARLSON: Well, actually, I didn't deal with a lot of soldiers. I went over with Kelly McCann, CNN security analyst and a wonderful guy, a wonderfully tough guy. We did not stay in the green zone. We stayed in a house in Baghdad and saw almost no soldiers.
I interviewed precisely one, Jim Light (ph), who lives in Germany, a wonderful guy. But in the drive from Kuwait into Baghdad, I didn't see a single American soldier from the Kuwait border all the way until I got to the CNN bureau at the Palestine Hotel in Baghdad. Driving around Baghdad, which we did a lot every day, I didn't see any, none, not one American soldier. It was really striking.
BEGALA: Did you ask why? Well, first off, explain to the folks the green zone vs. the rest of Baghdad.
CARLSON: The green zone is essentially the neighborhood where Saddam Hussein kept his palaces, wide streets, lovely area. I can't -- I'm not quite sure how big it is, some hundreds of acres. It's where the monuments are, the crossed swords, the things you see on television. And it's essentially an American zone, heavily fortified, hard to get in, tanks around the perimeter, parts of it anyway, and many American soldiers there, and also the CPA, the Coalition Provisional Authority, which is creating a new government there.
And that's a relatively secure area, not totally secure, but very different than the rest of Baghdad, which, again, there's not an obvious American presence. I saw one American flag, one, when I was there for the entire week. And it was at the Baghdad International Airport on the fourth floor in the bar. And that was it.
Limbaugh Lies
Greg Beato documents how dishonest Rush has been about his recent troubles.
In email Greg also made a couple of points. One I had alluded to earlier, that Roy Black has pretty much admitted that Rush bought drugs from Cline. An odd legal defense - admitting guilt.
He also writes, with respect to this paragraph on Limbaugh's back surgery:
In response, Greg writes:
For more back surgery background see here.
In email Greg also made a couple of points. One I had alluded to earlier, that Roy Black has pretty much admitted that Rush bought drugs from Cline. An odd legal defense - admitting guilt.
He also writes, with respect to this paragraph on Limbaugh's back surgery:
-
At a hearing Monday, Black said his client suffered from a degenerative disc disease with "pain so great at one point doctors thought he had bone
cancer," but Limbaugh chose to take painkillers rather than have surgery. Surgery to reach the affected part of Limbaugh's spine could have threatened his voice and his career as a commentator, Black said.
In response, Greg writes:
-
Limbaugh's initial claim that he became hooked on painkillers after back surgery has always been shrouded in a little mystery, as he's never explained when and where he had that surgery, and there don't seem to be any articles about it from the time period when he suggest he had it ('94 - '96). At some point in the development of this story, the notion of an additional surgery raised - the one that would have had to go through his neck and possibly jeapordize his voice/career. But the initial surgery never gets mentioned, and if this AP summary of Black's is accurate, he doesn't acknowledge it either. Instead, he seems to be suggesting that Limbaugh's addiction started not after taking pills in the wake of back surgery, but
from avoiding surgery altogether...
Given all the confusion, it'd be nice if one of the reporters covering the story actually provided some substantive info on the alleged initial back
surgery....
For more back surgery background see here.
Those Nasty Liberals
Imagine how those sensitive types on the right would howl if a liberal media figure (assuming we could locate one) had published a book entitled "Deliver Us from Evil : Defeating Terrorism, Despotism, and Conservatism." They'd faint from the trauma, mount a class action suit, and call for the person to be arrested for "hate speech."
Oh, and the publisher would withdraw the book.
... we joke about it, but I'm still quite surprised about the degree to which the Right has morphed entirely into the caricature of the Left they've been bleating about for years - speech codes, victimhood, oversensitivity, tendency to sue, etc...
Oh, and the publisher would withdraw the book.
... we joke about it, but I'm still quite surprised about the degree to which the Right has morphed entirely into the caricature of the Left they've been bleating about for years - speech codes, victimhood, oversensitivity, tendency to sue, etc...
Onward to the Netherlands!
The Senate has authorized the use of force against the Netherlands.
As Dave Barry would say, I am not making this up.
(this is old, but "new to me.")
As Dave Barry would say, I am not making this up.
(this is old, but "new to me.")
Ha Ha Ha
In an earlier post I unfairly (though I was open about it) criticized Limbaugh for claiming he had a right to privacy by quoting him as saying there was no constitutional right to privacy. I guess I wasn't being unfair after all:
Limbaugh:
Limbaugh:
...okay, it is true that the Florida constitution does specifically enumerate some privacy right.
...Limbaugh today.
flopping fish
-
Limbaugh argued that he has a constitutional right to privacy over the records, and that the seizure of the records by the State Attorney's Office was making it difficult for him to obtain treatment from his doctors.
Limbaugh:
-
I agree with the view, best articulated by Judge Robert Bork, that there is no basis in the Constitution for the privacy right which was announced as the foundational basis for the constitutional right to abortion.
Limbaugh:
-
There is no right to privacy specifically enumerated in the Constitution.
...okay, it is true that the Florida constitution does specifically enumerate some privacy right.
-
Section 23. Right of privacy. - Every natural person has the right to be let alone and free from government intrusion into his private life except as otherwise provided herein. This section shall not be construed to limit the public's right of access to public records and meetings as provided by law.
...Limbaugh today.
-
It's not up to me to prove my innocence by giving up my right to privacy. I have to give up my right to privacy now in order for the state who is, in effect, just casting a line out there, hoping to net something. They've got to invade my privacy to do this.
flopping fish
Howie's World
Link:
So, let me get this straight. The right is shut out of the mainstream media and because of this they are very successful at getting the mainstream media to to focus on whatever they want it to.
Makes sense to me.
-
One could argue that the so-called liberal media do the same thing, but the right, which sees itself as shut out of the mainstream media, has become awfully skilled at taking what might seem like a minor matter and blowing it up into the issue of the day.
So, let me get this straight. The right is shut out of the mainstream media and because of this they are very successful at getting the mainstream media to to focus on whatever they want it to.
Makes sense to me.
Moral Clarity
NYT:
-
Pressure mounted on the Reagan administration, which had already verified Iraq's "almost daily" use of the weapons against Iran and against Kurdish rebels, documents show. In February, Iraq warned Iranian "invaders" that "for every harmful insect there is an insecticide capable of annihilating it." Within weeks, the American authorities intercepted precursor chemicals that were bound for Iraq. Finally, on March 5, the United States issued a public condemnation of Iraq.
But days later, Mr. Shultz and his deputy met with an Iraqi diplomat, Ismet Kittani, to soften the blow. The American relationship with Iraq was too important — involving business interests, Middle East diplomacy and a shared determination to thwart Iran — to sacrifice. Mr. Kittani left the meeting "unpersuaded," documents show.
Mr. Shultz then turned to Mr. Rumsfeld. In a March 24 briefing document, Mr. Rumsfeld was asked to present America's bottom line. At first, the memo recapitulated Mr. Shultz's message to Mr. Kittani, saying it "clarified that our CW [chemical weapons] condemnation was made strictly out of our strong opposition to the use of lethal and incapacitating CW, wherever it occurs." The American officials had "emphasized that our interests in 1) preventing an Iranian victory and 2) continuing to improve bilateral relations with Iraq, at a pace of Iraq's choosing, remain undiminished," it said.
No Protection for Liars
Robert Scheer's right. When a journalist is used to spread bullshit, their responsibility is to inform their readers who put them up to it. Their responsibility is not in these cases to protect their sources.
Krugman's Revenge
Haha. I hear blood vessels popping over at Chez Andy.
Here's my review of Lord Black's new book: AWESOME!
Where's my payoff?
Here's my review of Lord Black's new book: AWESOME!
Where's my payoff?
Theocracy Rising
Link:
...PFAW has more.
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All images of gay gatherings at national sites, including the Millennium March on the Washington Mall have been ordered removed from videotapes that have been shown at the Lincoln Memorial since 1995 according to a civil service group.
Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility (PEER) says that the directive came from National Parks Service Deputy Director Donald Murphy. Murphy is said to have been concerned about pictures in the video that showed same-sex couples kissing and holding hands after conservative groups complained.
The Millennium March held in 2000 to bring attention to LGBT civil rights issues drew tens of thousands of gays and their supporters to the mall for one of the biggest demonstrations since the civil rights and anti-war marches of the 1960s.
Also ordered cut from the tape were scenes of abortion rights demonstrations at the memorial, and anti-Vietnam War demonstrations "because it implies that Lincoln would have supported homosexual and abortion rights as well as feminism."
In their place, the Park Service is inserting scenes of the Christian group Promise Keepers and pro-Gulf War demonstrators though these events did not take place at the Memorial in what Murphy calls a "more balanced" version.
"The Park Service leadership now caters exclusively to conservative Christian fundamentalist groups," stated PEER Executive Director Jeff Ruch. "The Bush Administration appears to be sponsoring a program of Faith-Based Parks."
Last July, Murphy ordered the Grand Canyon National Park to return three bronze plaques bearing biblical verses to public viewing areas on the Canyon's South Rim. Murphy overruled the park superintendent who had directed the plaques' removal based on legal advice from the Interior Department that the religious displays violated the First Amendment.
This fall, the Park Service also approved a creationist text, "Grand Canyon: A Different View" for sale in park bookstores and museums. The book by Tom Vail, claims that the Grand Canyon is really only a few thousand years old, developing on a biblical rather than an evolutionary time scale. At the same time, Park Service leadership has blocked publication of guidance for park rangers and other interpretative staff that labeled creationism as lacking any scientific basis.
...PFAW has more.
Monday, December 22, 2003
Positive and Normative
Obviously I'm increasingly breaking my "no primary" pledge, which I knew I would break at some point. But, I'm still doing my best to do "positive" rather than "normative" analysis. I'm trying to comment on what is or likely to be, rather than what I would personally like to happen. In the context of the primary, that means making comments on campaign strategy and predictions about what will happen, and not expressing an opinion on who I would like to win or who I would think would make the best opposition candidate (potentially, but not necessarily, the same thing.)
But, for the sake of full disclosure let me say that at various times I've thought that Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Dean would make the "best candidate." After having all of these periods, of varying lengths, I decided I didn't have a clue and neither did anyone else. There are certain things which are quantifiable - fundraising, polls - but the rest of it is largely subjective. And, as plenty of Smart People (even Smarter People Than Me (!!)) have differing opinions on this subject, it's fair to say that smart people differ and nobody has the monopoly on wisdom on this subject.
My views on why, say, Clark or Dean could be the "better" candidate are often somewhat contrarian, but unlike Slate magazine or Christopher Hitchens I don't think contrarianism is a sign of wisdom. So, again, what the hell do I know. By March 5, if not earlier, we'll know who the candidate is and then we'll be able to finally keep our eyes on the prize.
But, for the sake of full disclosure let me say that at various times I've thought that Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Dean would make the "best candidate." After having all of these periods, of varying lengths, I decided I didn't have a clue and neither did anyone else. There are certain things which are quantifiable - fundraising, polls - but the rest of it is largely subjective. And, as plenty of Smart People (even Smarter People Than Me (!!)) have differing opinions on this subject, it's fair to say that smart people differ and nobody has the monopoly on wisdom on this subject.
My views on why, say, Clark or Dean could be the "better" candidate are often somewhat contrarian, but unlike Slate magazine or Christopher Hitchens I don't think contrarianism is a sign of wisdom. So, again, what the hell do I know. By March 5, if not earlier, we'll know who the candidate is and then we'll be able to finally keep our eyes on the prize.
Black's Strategy
Talk Left tells us what Roy Black's strategy is - and she's right. Rush isn't so worried about the Florida doctor shopping charges - although he's probably somewhat worried - he's worried about the possible federal money laundering charges.
Yet Another Poll (ABC/WaPo)
This one's pretty surprising:
National polls aren't that important for all the reasons Kos is always telling us, but they're entertaining nonetheless.
-
Dean 31 (16)
Lieberman 9 (13)
Gephardt 9 (13)
Kerry 8 (8)
Clark 7 (12)
Edwards 6 ( 5)
Sharpton 5 (7)
Kucinich 2 (2)
Moseley Braun - (5)
Don't Know 14 (11)
None of these 7 (7)
Would not vote 2 (2)
Other 1 (1)
National polls aren't that important for all the reasons Kos is always telling us, but they're entertaining nonetheless.
Admitting Guilt?
I have to admit I don't quite get Roy Black's legal strategy, which seems to be to claim that Rush was blackmailed but he couldn't admit that he was being blackmailed because if he did the FBI would go after him (oh, and his ENEMIES too).
-
Black said Limbaugh wanted to contact the FBI, but was told by an unidentified friend that if he went to the authorities, they would target him, and his political enemies would use the information against him.
"That's exactly what happened," said Black, who also alleged that Cline's husband was a convicted drug trafficker.
The Frontrunners
For some time now the media has made this a "Dean vs. Clark" race. It isn't entirely clear why. Dean is obviously the frontrunner - both in national poll performance and more importantly in polls of states with early primaries. But, if we need to pick a number two based on available poll numbers, who should it be?
Judging by national poll numbers it's a tossup between Clark and Lieberman, with Lieberman probably having a slight edge (and Gephardt not far behind).
Moving to the state polls (slogging through Kos's archives for all of these), what do we see? Clark's out of Iowa (what was he thinking?), and it has Dean and Gephardt in the #1 and #2 spots.
Moving onto New Hampshire, we currently have Dean and Kerry in the #1 and #2 spots.
Then, onward to Feb. 3 - Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
Arizona has Dean ahead, and Clark second but statistically tied with 3 others in this poll, though this one makes it a Dean/Clark close race.The only poll of Delaware was taken in October, and it has Lieberman coming out ahead.
South Carolina has Dean first with Clark, Sharpton, and Edwards basically tied for second in that poll, and a closer Dean/Clark race in this poll.
Oklahoma has Clark winning.
Some later polls:
Wisconsin has Dean ahead, with Lieberman and Clark basically tied for second.
Pennsylvania (very late so probably irrelevant) has Dean first, with Lieberman second.
Anyway, I'm tired of looking up more numbers. But, the point is that there's really no evidence that any particular candidate has become the "anti-Dean" candidate.
Judging by national poll numbers it's a tossup between Clark and Lieberman, with Lieberman probably having a slight edge (and Gephardt not far behind).
Moving to the state polls (slogging through Kos's archives for all of these), what do we see? Clark's out of Iowa (what was he thinking?), and it has Dean and Gephardt in the #1 and #2 spots.
Moving onto New Hampshire, we currently have Dean and Kerry in the #1 and #2 spots.
Then, onward to Feb. 3 - Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
Arizona has Dean ahead, and Clark second but statistically tied with 3 others in this poll, though this one makes it a Dean/Clark close race.The only poll of Delaware was taken in October, and it has Lieberman coming out ahead.
South Carolina has Dean first with Clark, Sharpton, and Edwards basically tied for second in that poll, and a closer Dean/Clark race in this poll.
Oklahoma has Clark winning.
Some later polls:
Wisconsin has Dean ahead, with Lieberman and Clark basically tied for second.
Pennsylvania (very late so probably irrelevant) has Dean first, with Lieberman second.
Anyway, I'm tired of looking up more numbers. But, the point is that there's really no evidence that any particular candidate has become the "anti-Dean" candidate.
4%
It really is astounding that John Kerry is polling below both Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley-Braun in the latest national poll.
When it was clear that Kerry was slipping he really needed to figure out some kind of hail Mary pass. Saying, in effect, that he's more like George Bush than Howard Dean is was that pass - he just threw it towards the wrong end zone.
okay, enough bad sports metaphors.
Anyway, for the record count me among those who once assumed Kerry would be the nominee.
When it was clear that Kerry was slipping he really needed to figure out some kind of hail Mary pass. Saying, in effect, that he's more like George Bush than Howard Dean is was that pass - he just threw it towards the wrong end zone.
okay, enough bad sports metaphors.
Anyway, for the record count me among those who once assumed Kerry would be the nominee.
Libel?
I know winning a libel case is impossible in this country, and I would rarely recommend someone bother trying, but this Andrew Sullivan post about Donald Luskin's precious is so filled with errors - errors which, given Sullivan's obsession with this story, he has to know are false - that it crosses the line. Unless, of course, the minty fresh testostogel has fried his brain.
Enron never gave any money to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. They gave money to academic and occasional freelance writer Paul Krugman before he worked at the New York Times. Krugman disclosed his financial connection when he wrote about Enron (Favorably) for Fortune magazine, and he disclosed it yet again - though it was a past relationship - when he began writing about Enron (very negatively) in his capacity as an NYT columnist.
He then subsequently disclosed the precise nature of the relationship - money paid and what it was paid for. Maybe Andy has invented a new definition for "disclosed" which means "give it to Andy Sullivan" or something, but otherwise...
Andy continues to mention this story despite ignoring all the Enron money which was given to people like Peggy Noonan, Bill Kristol, and who knows who else that we haven't heard about. Krugman's crime appears to be receiving money, disclosing it, disclosing it further, all the while writing very negatively about them. How corrupt!
Besides, as Tbogg reminds us, the very idea of Andy writing about anyone's financial conflicts of interests (or journalistic lapses of any kind), is laughable:
-
IN DENIAL II: Hmmm. The New York Times runs a big story on the journalistic friends of Conrad Black, media mogul in ethical rapids. They detail how some leading conservatives have been paid handsomely on Black's "advisory boards" while not disclosing their payments. Who does that remind you of? Two years ago, it was revealed that Enron - yes, Enron - had been lavishing huge sums on friendly journalists, including the New York Times columnist, Paul Krugman.
Enron never gave any money to New York Times columnist Paul Krugman. They gave money to academic and occasional freelance writer Paul Krugman before he worked at the New York Times. Krugman disclosed his financial connection when he wrote about Enron (Favorably) for Fortune magazine, and he disclosed it yet again - though it was a past relationship - when he began writing about Enron (very negatively) in his capacity as an NYT columnist.
-
The NYT - despite devoting enormous resources to the Enron story - deliberately ignored the journalism angle. Krugman still hasn't disclosed the tens of thousands of thinly-veiled bribes he got from Enron, while he postures absurdly as a foe of the powerful.
He then subsequently disclosed the precise nature of the relationship - money paid and what it was paid for. Maybe Andy has invented a new definition for "disclosed" which means "give it to Andy Sullivan" or something, but otherwise...
Andy continues to mention this story despite ignoring all the Enron money which was given to people like Peggy Noonan, Bill Kristol, and who knows who else that we haven't heard about. Krugman's crime appears to be receiving money, disclosing it, disclosing it further, all the while writing very negatively about them. How corrupt!
Besides, as Tbogg reminds us, the very idea of Andy writing about anyone's financial conflicts of interests (or journalistic lapses of any kind), is laughable:
-
Andrew Sullivan's latest controversy began Tuesday, when the New York Times published an article on the recent phenomenon of online "me-zines" -- scrappy, self-produced, sometimes stream-of-consciousness commentaries by celebrity intellectuals. But Sullivan's attempt to achieve what has eluded most online journalism ventures -- make his Web site self-sustaining, maybe even make a profit -- landed him in new trouble with his critics this week, after the story matter-of-factly reported that Sullivan had signed up his first corporate sponsor: the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America.
PhRMA is the association that looks out for the interests of industry giants like Pfizer and Merck on Capitol Hill and elsewhere. What the Times failed to report is that Sullivan has used his own Web site, as well as his posts at the New York Times Magazine and the New Republic to repeatedly -- and controversially - defend the pharmaceutical industry against criticism over its role in the global AIDS pandemic.
The controversy over Sullivan's site sponsor was short-lived: After reporters from Salon and other news organizations made calls to Sullivan's editors, as well as to journalism experts, about the ethics of a journalist being personally sponsored by an industry he frequently defends, Sullivan announced he would return the $7,500 annual sponsorship. But the larger question raised by the flap isn't likely to go away: How can a one-person "me-zine" develop ethical standards that allow it to accept the kind of advertising and sponsorships that go to corporate media monoliths, without the conflict of interest taint that naturally goes along with a journalist getting the personal backing of a controversial patron?
Private and Public
Will we ever run out of people who don't understand the difference between private and public? Yet another silly Homeowner's Association dispute where some poor soul thinks their rights as an American are being violated.
Suck it up - you entered into a private contract when you bought your property and you're bound by it.
But, I do think the courts have gone a bit too far in allowing HOAs to do almost anything they want. At some point, the neighborhoods get large enough and enough typical functions of government taken over by them that for all purposes they *are* governments. At some point, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... it's a duck. At the moment, however, the courts don't agree with my assessment.
-
"This is an abuse of power," Dianne Bambu said. "The bylaws of a deed-restricted community supersede your right as an American citizen."
Suck it up - you entered into a private contract when you bought your property and you're bound by it.
But, I do think the courts have gone a bit too far in allowing HOAs to do almost anything they want. At some point, the neighborhoods get large enough and enough typical functions of government taken over by them that for all purposes they *are* governments. At some point, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck... it's a duck. At the moment, however, the courts don't agree with my assessment.
First Refusal
Even this euro-phile internationalist doesn't think Europe should have a veto power over any military action we should take. But, now that Wesley Clark has said that Europe should have the right of first refusal, the usual nattering nabobs are pretending that what he really said was that Europe should have a veto power. Mark Kleiman explains.
Get used to this. As Sam Donaldson has informed us, it's the journalist's job to take perfectly reasonable statements made by candidates, pretend they mean something completely outrageous, even when the journalist actually knows better, and then proceed to criticize them for it. Ah, journalism. Such a noble profession.
Get used to this. As Sam Donaldson has informed us, it's the journalist's job to take perfectly reasonable statements made by candidates, pretend they mean something completely outrageous, even when the journalist actually knows better, and then proceed to criticize them for it. Ah, journalism. Such a noble profession.
George Will's Consistency
George will debates himself about the meaning of the constitution:
In 1993:
Ten Years Later:
In 1993:
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The Constitution provides only that, other than in the five cases, a simple majority vote shall decide the disposition by each house of business that has consequences beyond each house, such as passing legislation or confirming executive or judicial nominees. Procedural rules internal to each house are another matter. And the generation that wrote and ratified the Constitution - the generation whose actions are considered particularly illuminating concerning the meaning and spirit of the Constitution - set the Senate's permissive tradition regarding extended debate. There was something very like a filibuster in the First Congress.
Ten Years Later:
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The president, preoccupied with regime change elsewhere, will occupy a substantially diminished presidency unless he defeats the current attempt to alter the constitutional regime here. If at least 41 Senate Democrats succeed in blocking a vote on the confirmation of Miguel Estrada to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, the Constitution effectively will be amended.
If Senate rules, exploited by an anti-constitutional minority, are allowed to trump the Constitution's text and two centuries of practice, the Senate's power to consent to judicial nominations will have become a Senate right to require a 60-vote supermajority for confirmations. By thus nullifying the president's power to shape the judiciary, the Democratic Party will wield a presidential power without having won a presidential election.
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