Same old song.
Monday, December 31, 2007
Laughing With Him Or Laughing At Him
I agree with commenter swellsman regarding Huckabee's "gaffe."
They could've reported it as a gaffe, or gone along with the "gag." Why one happens instead of the other depends on what the reporters think of a candidate.
Even something this cheap, and this transparent, might've worked for Huck if he was someone else. Let's face it, Huck is a huge insult to the Villagers, and it is a huge sign of how little he understands Washington that he doesn't understand that -- notwithstanding he is the frontrunner in Iowa and now a solid contender for the Republican nomination -- so far as the Villagers are concerned Huck is just po' white trash from Arkansas . . . just like those skeevy Clintons were.
"This isn't their town, it's our town, and they trashed it."
If Huck was Romney, he might even have been able to get away with this stunt. Worse than his gaffes over Pakistan, this blatant display that he just really doesn't get his 'place' in big-time, Washington politics shows that he just isn't ready for prime time.
Sure . . . it was a cheap, transparent, cynical ploy, and you won't catch me shedding any tears if Huck really is imploding. But it's also a damned shame, 'cause you just know that the idea originated with one of his paid advisors who forgot -- for a moment -- that he was working for someone the Villagers consider 'unwashed,' and therefore unable to get away with the bullshit that flies for those the Village has anointed.
It's a damned shame not because Huck is anything other than a scurvy dog, but because it reveals the rotten myopia through which all U.S. politics is now seen.
They could've reported it as a gaffe, or gone along with the "gag." Why one happens instead of the other depends on what the reporters think of a candidate.
Please Don't
Bullets go up, bullets come down.
District Attorney Lynne Abraham warned Philadelphians who plan to shoot guns in the air tonight to celebrate the New Year that they face aggressive prosecution if caught.
Joined at a late-morning news conference by Joseph Jaskolka, who on New Year's Eve in 1998 was struck and disabled by a falling bullet, Abraham also warned revelers of the devastating costs of the dangerous tradition.
Please Stop Wanking
Is there a right wing talking point Obama hasn't rushed to embrace? Going after trial lawyers?
Jeebus.
Jeebus.
Eschaton Endorsement!
I hereby endorse John Edwards... to win the Iowa primary caucus! Anything which will annoy Joe Klein and Stu Rothenberg is probably a good thing.
Anyway, I still haven't chosen a candidate completely and don't expect to. At various times I've leaned Edwards/Obama/Clinton/Dodd. But I'd like to see the Villagers squeal in pain over an Edwards Iowa win, though apparently he has to double super secret win for it to count. Or something.
Anyway, I still haven't chosen a candidate completely and don't expect to. At various times I've leaned Edwards/Obama/Clinton/Dodd. But I'd like to see the Villagers squeal in pain over an Edwards Iowa win, though apparently he has to double super secret win for it to count. Or something.
Lindsey Stamps His Feet.... Yet Again
Last month:
Another cunning plan. We'd better give it a year to "work."
Two Republican senators said that unless Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki makes more political progress by January, the U.S. should consider pulling political or financial support for his government.
The stern warnings, coming from Sens. Lindsey Graham and Saxby Chambliss Monday, are an indication that while GOP patience on the war has greatly increased this fall because of security gains made by the military, it isn't bottomless.
"I do expect them to deliver," Graham, R-S.C., said in a phone interview upon returning from a Thanksgiving trip to Iraq. "What would happen for me if there's no progress on reconciliation after the first of the year, I would be looking at ways to invest our money into groups that can deliver."
Another cunning plan. We'd better give it a year to "work."
The Last Honest Man
Joe Lieberman, July 2006.
Oh well.
I am confident that the situation is improving enough on the ground that by the end of this year we will being to draw down significant numbers of American troops and by the end of next year more than half of the troops who are there now will be home.
Oh well.
No, Really, This Time...
Jackson Diehl, today.
Of course what he's talking about is whether politicians will decide to keep over 100,000 troops there forever, or just a lot longer. And, suddenly, actual political progress in Iraq is basically irrelevant.
Yet, for once, saying that the next six to 12 months will win or lose the war just might be right.
Of course what he's talking about is whether politicians will decide to keep over 100,000 troops there forever, or just a lot longer. And, suddenly, actual political progress in Iraq is basically irrelevant.
Oh Well
David Ignatius, June 2006.
A key part of the Bush administration's strategy is to involve Maliki's government in discussions about withdrawal of U.S. troops. Gen. Casey briefed the Pentagon last week on his hopes to cut the number of U.S. combat brigades in Iraq by more than half by the end of 2007, according to a story in Sunday's New York Times. Casey will soon meet with Maliki to form the joint U.S.-Iraqi committee that can oversee the buildup of Iraqi security forces and the corresponding drawdown of U.S. troops.
"When we establish that committee," Khalilzad explained, "the subject will be the withdrawal of U.S. forces, and the conditions related to a road map for an ultimate withdrawal of U.S. troops." He stressed, however, that there was no automatic timetable for withdrawal and that he expected Maliki "will be on the cautious side."
And What He Said
Glennzilla:
...adding, to be clear I don't really care if Bloomberg runs. I don't think his impact on the overall election is predictable. It's just another fascinating representation of the utter corruption, vanity, and vapidity of the floating world of Washington insiders.
A Bloomberg candidacy would have no purpose other than satisfy his bottomless personal lust for attention and bestow the wise old men threatening the country with his candidacy with some fleeting sense of rejuvenated relevance and wisdom. His political views are conventional in every way and he's little more than an establishment-enabling figurehead. The whole attraction to his candidacy has nothing to do with any issues or substance and everything to do with an empty addiction to vapid notions of Establishment harmony and a desire to exert control, whereby our Seriousness guardians devote themselves to a candidate for reasons largely unrelated to his policies or political views, thus proving themselves, as usual, to be the exact antithesis of actual seriousness.
...adding, to be clear I don't really care if Bloomberg runs. I don't think his impact on the overall election is predictable. It's just another fascinating representation of the utter corruption, vanity, and vapidity of the floating world of Washington insiders.
Paul, Not Bloomberg
Nah, Bloomberg isn't Perot. Just the opposite. Bloomberg is for self-styled Washington insiders who think politics exists to validate their importance and for the Washington Elite Consensus folks who lack a constituency and imagine they need to save the country from the whims of pesky voters and evil communists like John Edwards. It's the permanent floating class of Washington who are sure that "Washington is broken," and who know precisely who to blame - voters. Or maybe bloggers.
Deep Thought
What this country is really yearning for is a political movement dedicated to getting Chuck Robb more photo ops.
Why Am I Awake?
Lord High Everything Else, Mike Tomasky, June '06:
Oh well.
Ezra and Matt are making the mistake of discussing substantive factors. You've surely learned by now that there is no substance with these people. There is only politics. We will start to get out of Iraq, bit by bit, this September and October. By the end of 2007, a plan will be announced to ensure we're substantially out (i.e., a 75 percent draw down or some such) by October 2008.
Oh well.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Deep Thought
I wonder if General Chang ever noticed that the hills were alive with the sound of music.
My Friend Serge
People often ask where the name "Atrios" comes from and I generally don't bother to tell the story - I think I did on the blog somewhere once before - as it's complicated to explain without any real payoff. But, basically, I needed a fake name to use on the internets and as I was into obscure references at the time I just grabbed the first obscure reference I could think of, though this one was obscure enough that I couldn't remember it right and couldn't find it on the primitive internet to check. So Atrios it was even though the name I was reaching for was "Antrios." Probably for the best, as I think Atrios sounds a bit better, but there you go.
Antrios is an unseen character in the play Art, by Yasmina Reza, who is the artist responsible for creating the painting which is at the center of the play. It's a painting which is white on white, basically blank, and one of the characters, Serge, purchases it for a large sum of money. This purchase drives his friend a bit crazy - he's horrified by such a ridiculous purchase - and it threatens to break up the friendship of the group of three characters in the play. Much merriment ensues.
As a bunch of old white unelected guys can't handle the fact that things are passing them by, I was reminded of the final bit of the play, spoken by the angered friend Marc who comes to accept the painting:
Antrios is an unseen character in the play Art, by Yasmina Reza, who is the artist responsible for creating the painting which is at the center of the play. It's a painting which is white on white, basically blank, and one of the characters, Serge, purchases it for a large sum of money. This purchase drives his friend a bit crazy - he's horrified by such a ridiculous purchase - and it threatens to break up the friendship of the group of three characters in the play. Much merriment ensues.
As a bunch of old white unelected guys can't handle the fact that things are passing them by, I was reminded of the final bit of the play, spoken by the angered friend Marc who comes to accept the painting:
Under the white clouds, snow is falling.
You can't see the white clouds, or the snow.
Or the cold, or the white glow of the earth.
A solitary man glides downhill on his skis.
The snow is falling.
It falls until the man disappears back into the
landscape.
My friend Serge, who's one of my oldest friends,
has bought a painting.
It's a canvas about five feet by four.
It represents a man who moves across a space
then disappears.
Democracy, Villager Style
Shorter bipartisan reacharound fetish crowd:
We're a dozen or so old, white, mostly male people who for the most part don't hold elected office. Unless the presidential candidates do what we tell them to do, we're going to encourage our short divorced pal from New York City to spend a billion bucks of his personal fortune to fuck around with the election because that's what the people need.
Alien Life Form
When I taught in Orange County, I learned that the majority of my students had never boarded a train. Car-as-sole-means-of-transportation is so ingrained for many people in the country, and what such people usually don't understand that mass transit isn't simply a somewhat annoying substitute for car travel but that it can greatly transform your relationship with your surroundings and how you go about your life. Life is different, very different.
Anyway along these lines I find reading the articles about Charlotte's new light rail system highly entertaining. There's always a degree of incomprehension - just what is this train thing anyway? - in them. But the system appears to be popular.
Anyway along these lines I find reading the articles about Charlotte's new light rail system highly entertaining. There's always a degree of incomprehension - just what is this train thing anyway? - in them. But the system appears to be popular.
My Iowa Prediction
While someone will come out on top, as with the polls the result will pretty much be a 3-way tie, and so this pointless contest given meaning only by the media will have even less meaning than usual, though that won't stop them.
Double Bubble
I hit this earlier but it's worth expanding on a bit.
That was slightly misreported. It's actually 75% of option ARM borrowers who were issued their mortgages in 2006, not the entire universe of option ARM borrowers. Still it's unlikely that the numbers for 2007 are much better, though perhaps the numbers for mortgages issued earlier are.
But the point is that if people are paying only the minimum monthly payment, then the mortgage is negatively amortizing. People are losing equity month by month even as the market price of their home is falling. That situation can go on until they hit the tripwire - 115% of the original mortgage - and their payments shoot up.
Then they mail the keys to the bank.
Why did borrowers like them? Simple: Option ARMs allow you to buy maximum house for minimum initial monthly payment. They are not particularly complicated or confusing. You buy now and pay later.
"... more than 75% of option ARM borrowers have been making only the minimum payments, analysts at Standard & Poor's Corp. said last week. As a result, the delinquency rate on option ARMs already is jumping and is likely to keep rising sharply, S&P said."
That was slightly misreported. It's actually 75% of option ARM borrowers who were issued their mortgages in 2006, not the entire universe of option ARM borrowers. Still it's unlikely that the numbers for 2007 are much better, though perhaps the numbers for mortgages issued earlier are.
But the point is that if people are paying only the minimum monthly payment, then the mortgage is negatively amortizing. People are losing equity month by month even as the market price of their home is falling. That situation can go on until they hit the tripwire - 115% of the original mortgage - and their payments shoot up.
Then they mail the keys to the bank.
Drumroll Please
And the first annual award for high achievement in wanking, "The Tosser," goes to...
Lord Saletan.
Congratulations, Will, on all your wanking in 2007. Good luck to everyone next year! Start your wanking!
Lord Saletan.
Congratulations, Will, on all your wanking in 2007. Good luck to everyone next year! Start your wanking!
Bloomberg
Aside from all the usual bipartisan reacharound fetishists, why on Earth does anyone think that Michael Bloomberg can win a national election? I know he can blow a billion bucks on it, but come on...
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's "This Week" — Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and John McCain, R-Ariz.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Former Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
___
CNN's "Late Edition" — Former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn.; Sens. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., and Joe Biden, D-Del.; former GOP presidential candidate Steve Forbes; Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; former Sens. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., and Jim Talent, R-Mo.; former Defense Secretary William Cohen.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Thompson.
Good morning, folks
Another dial-up rescue. I got nothing to say, I gotta go fix all the typos I made yesterday.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Still Wanking
Lee Siegel could be a brilliant bit of performance art parodying assholes like Lee Siegel.
Saturday, December 29, 2007
House Swap
With just a little bit of coordination, everyone can just move one house to the left and leave the banks holding the bag.
Awesome.
...adding, to make it clearer: Someone owns a house with a mortgage they either can't afford or don't want to keep paying (maybe it's about to go up, or maybe they just don't want to keep paying it). They plan to buy the now much cheaper house across the street, and since they have good enough credit someone might be happy to lend them the money. After moving to the reduced rate home across the street, they plan to mail the keys of their old house to the bank.
Awesome.
...adding, to make it clearer: Someone owns a house with a mortgage they either can't afford or don't want to keep paying (maybe it's about to go up, or maybe they just don't want to keep paying it). They plan to buy the now much cheaper house across the street, and since they have good enough credit someone might be happy to lend them the money. After moving to the reduced rate home across the street, they plan to mail the keys of their old house to the bank.
Intolerance
No, Mr. Rosenthal, we're not intolerant. We just have a lot more respect for the importance of the product you put out - and journalism generally - than you do.
Fox Ousts Ron Paul
He's raised lots of money and he's outpolling Frederick of Hollywood in New Hampshire. Oh well.
THEY KNEW THEY WERE RIGHT
From the publicity material of Jacob Heilbrunn's book which is subtitled "The Rise of the Neocons":
We found the pony and no one told me?
Heilbrunn argues that neoconservatism has been unfairly demonized. Indeed, their ambitious vision of a democratic Iraq has born fruit with a spectacular wave of democratic upheaval across the Middle East.
We found the pony and no one told me?
So Many Strands of Wingnuttery
The fact that they're all always wrong about everything never seems to deter them or their enablers.
And We Meddle
Because that's what we do.
It was a decidedly odd moment. On Thursday, within hours of Benazir Bhutto's assassination, State Department spokesman Tom Casey told reporters in Washington that his boss, Condoleezza Rice, had quickly made two calls. One was to Bhutto's bereaved husband, Asif Ali Zardari. Rice's other call, Casey said, was to the man he called Bhutto's "successor," Amin Fahim, the vice chairman of her Pakistan People's Party. Casey couldn't even quite master this obscure politician's name, but he said, "I'll leave it up to Mr. Amin Fahir—Fahim—as the new head of the Pakistan People's Party to determine how that party is going to participate in the electoral process."
The problem is, nobody but the State Department—especially not the political elites in Pakistan, even those within Bhutto's own party—sees Fahim in such a role, and certainly not so soon. Critics suggest that the administration is so eager to graft legitimacy onto President Pervez Musharraf, its ever-more-unpopular ally in the war on terror, that it is pressing too hard to move past Bhutto and continue with scheduled Jan. 8 parliamentary elections, even though riots are paralyzing the country. "They're trying to rush everything. This is a disaster," says Marvin Weinbaum, a former State Depratment official and current scholar at the Middle East Institute. "This is now our new game plan: We're working out a deal between Fahim and Musharraf after the election. They mention Fahim because they don't know any better. The fact is, she [Bhutto] didn't trust him."
I Suppose A Journalist Could Ask Him
What now, Lindsey?
And on and on...
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a pivotal Republican vote in the U.S. Senate on Iraq policy, is willing to give the government of Iraq until Christmas to get its act together.
But not much more.
Graham told TIME Wednesday that the Iraqi leaders have 90 days to start resolving their political differences with real legislative agreements or face a change in strategy by the U.S. "If they can't do it in 90 days," he said, "it means the major players don't want to."
Graham, who has been to Iraq nearly a dozen times, including spending 11 days in August on duty as a reserve Air Force officer, pointed out that Washington has spent the last few weeks debating Iraq policy and emerged with a commitment to continuing the surge through the spring. That commitment, he said, is the green light for the Iraqis to finally take action on resolving their disagreements.
But Graham, who is up for re-election in 2008, said he will not wait forever. "If they can't pull it together in the next 90 days," he said, "I don't think they are ever gonna do it." He followed that prediction with a promise: "If they don't deliver in 90 days, I will openly say the chances for political reconciliation are remote."
And on and on...
Can't Pay Won't Pay
Ruh-roh.
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Drake Management LLC suspended most redemptions from its largest hedge fund after losing 23.7 percent through November, according to a letter sent to investors of the New York-based firm.
Drake will meet about 25 percent of requested withdrawals from its $3 billion Global Opportunities Fund, which tries to profit from macroeconomic trends by trading bonds, stocks, currencies and commodities. The letter didn't disclose how much investors had asked to withdraw at the end of the year.
``This decision was made only after we attempted to convince redeeming investors to voluntarily rescind their redemption requests,'' said the letter, signed by Drake Management and sent out today.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Experience
Adding that I think the whole "experience" debate is a stupid one. There is no job like the presidency, and candidates should be mostly evaluated on what they say they'll do. That isn't to say that there is no information about a candidate that can be derived from their past experiences, just that "experience" doesn't really convey much information. I personally have no experience in government, but I'd surely have been a better president than George Bush! Still his "governor of Texas" resume would've trumped my "no experience in government at all" resume in the experience wars.
And don't get me started on Rudy!'s foreign policy "experience"...
And don't get me started on Rudy!'s foreign policy "experience"...
Because This Blog Can't Be Entirely Primary Free
Though he isn't perfect I do like Chris Dodd for a variety of reasons. Still it's hard to quite know what he's up to.
Leaving aside the merit of this criticism, he is making it. Against a fellow senator from a neighboring state and a likely (though far from certain) nominee.
I guess given this, and everything else he's done, it's hard to conclude anything other than Dodd is simply playing to win. That doesn't mean he will win, or even get close, but it does mean he isn't thinking about how to be spoiler for candidate X against Y.
Anyway, maybe I'm wrong. And, frankly, I don't even care all that much. But whenever longer shot candidates run you wonder what their angle is and from what I've been able to see Dodd hasn't had one.
At the launch of his “Caucus For Results” bus tour, the Connecticut senator told a crowd at his Iowa campaign headquarters that “it’s not just enough sitting on the sidelines and watching your husband deal with problems over the years,” to argue that his 26 years in the Senate are better suited to bring people together and deal with unexpected events like the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
Dodd said the New York senator’s claim that her time as First Lady was experience would be like his wife Jackie taking credit for his Family Medical Leave Act, adding, “The experience of having witnessed history is not the same as having helped create it.”
Leaving aside the merit of this criticism, he is making it. Against a fellow senator from a neighboring state and a likely (though far from certain) nominee.
I guess given this, and everything else he's done, it's hard to conclude anything other than Dodd is simply playing to win. That doesn't mean he will win, or even get close, but it does mean he isn't thinking about how to be spoiler for candidate X against Y.
Anyway, maybe I'm wrong. And, frankly, I don't even care all that much. But whenever longer shot candidates run you wonder what their angle is and from what I've been able to see Dodd hasn't had one.
Letterman Deal
Good for them.
David Letterman has secured a deal with the striking Writers Guild of America that will allow him to resume his late-night show on CBS next Wednesday with his team of writers on board, executives of several late-night shows said today.
Most of television’s late-night shows are scheduled to return to the air that night after being off for two months due to the strike, but it is likely that only Mr. Letterman, and the show that follows him on CBS hosted by Craig Ferguson, will be supported by material from writers.
The reason is that Mr. Letterman’s company World Wide Pants, owns both those shows. The company announced two weeks ago that it was seeking a separate deal with the guild that would permit the two World Wide Pants show to return to the air. The talks seemed to be at an impasse until today when the deal was completed.
A Thanks To My Glorious Commenters
Who unlike everyone else on the political internets don't spend all of their time arguing about who is the awesomest candidate.
Narcissism As Foreign Policy
It's almost impossible for our news media to report on any world events without somehow putting our country at the center of it. If we aren't at the center of it, it doesn't happen. One exception is the one hour per day that CNN show from CNN International where you actually get a bit of reporting on world events from a different perspective.
I suppose that similarly, if something important is happening then by definition we must be a part of it. So we meddle.
I suppose that similarly, if something important is happening then by definition we must be a part of it. So we meddle.
"Vital Interests"
It's not a term which is ever defined and is therefore meaningless except as a useful propaganda trick. I'm not saying all people who use the phrase do so for that purpose, but it's basically a blank slate onto which the reader or listener can project anything they want.
QOTD
brownsox on Romney:
He thought he could win as a conservative, so he became one. If he thought he could win as a pirate, he would have become a pirate.
Meddling
Propping up dictators is probably a bad idea, as is actively undermining them. "US interests" are rarely actually that, and one only needs to look at the geniuses who are running our foreign policy (Rice, Cheney, Bush) to understand that one should not enable them to do anything.
...Glennzilla:
...Glennzilla:
Contrary to the prevailing views of our political and media elite -- virtually all of whom seem eager to debate how we should best resolve Pakistan's problems: demand elections? get rid of Musharraf? find a replacement for Bhutto? -- that country isn't our protectorate or our colony and I doubt that the average American voter wants candidates to prove that they can best manage Pakistan's internal political mess. We have substantial messes of our own to manage and I suspect voters are more interested in how candidates will manage those.
New Home Sales
Not good.
Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell to a 12-year low in November, portending bigger declines in construction that will hobble economic growth throughout 2008.
Purchases dropped 9 percent to an annual pace of 647,000 that was weaker than the lowest forecast, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. October sales were revised down to a 711,000 pace.
...
A Bloomberg survey of 68 economists forecast sales would fall to an annual pace of 717,000 from a previously reported 728,000 rate in October, according to the median estimate. Economists' forecasts ranged from a low of 685,000 to a high of 750,000.
...
The number of homes for sale at the end of November decreased 1.8 percent to 505,000, the fewest in two years. Still, because sales dropped even more, the inventory of unsold homes at the current sales pace jumped to 9.3 months from 8.8 months in October.
Think Again
The subprime crisis never had much to do with subprime. The ride is just beginning.
Thought the mortgage meltdown was just a sub-prime affair? Think again. There's another time bomb waiting to explode, experts say: risky loans made to people with good credit.
So-called pay-option adjustable-rate mortgages, or option ARMs, were the easiest and most profitable home loans for lenders and brokers to make for much of this decade. Last year, they accounted for about 9% of the volume of all mortgages made in the U.S. and were especially popular in California, Florida and Nevada -- states where home prices rose the most during the housing boom and are now falling most sharply.
An option ARM loan gives a borrower the option of paying less than the interest due, causing the loan balance to rise. If it rises too much -- say, by 10% or 15% -- the opportunity to make a low payment vanishes and the required payment skyrockets.
...
One upshot could be foreclosures growing more common in affluent neighborhoods.
Emissions
I know I'm just a dumb little blogger, but I'm actually quite puzzled that auto execs are so opposed to emission regulation. I really think I have to put this in the "they're just assholes who don't like to be told what to do" category instead of the "rational economic actor" category, though perhaps someone can convince me otherwise...
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Flip This House
There's a point when investing becomes mass entertainment - think CNBC on in bars during the tech bubble - that it should be apparent to all that it's about to crash.
I've caught about 3 relatively recent episodes of Flip This House, and none of the houses sold.
"We looked at it and said, 'That's the way Sacramento is growing, people will be wanting to move out there,' " said Evan Weinzinger, a data-center manager from Vacaville who bought a home for $508,000 in Lincoln two years ago as an investment with his wife, Angela.
Some 14 percent of the homes sold in Lincoln in 2005 were purchased by investors like the Weinzingers, who schooled themselves by attending real estate seminars and watching cable-TV reality shows like "Flip This House." They bought a home in Texas and one on Keswick Court in Lincoln Crossing.
The Texas property is doing well. But the four-bedroom home on Keswick is another matter. The Weinzingers never found a tenant for it, maxed out their credit cards to meet the $2,900 monthly mortgage payments and lost the place to foreclosure in March. It's listed for $389,900.
"It's brand new," Weinzinger said. "No one's ever lived in it."
I've caught about 3 relatively recent episodes of Flip This House, and none of the houses sold.
Favorite CDs of '07
Anything added to my Ipod since last December, being new to me, included. No particular order.
Thao Nguyen - We Brave Bee Stings And All.
The National - Boxer
Stars - In Our Bedroom After the War
Clap Your Hands Say Yeah - Clap Your Hands Say Yeah
The New Pornographers - Challengers
The 1900s - Cold&Kind
New Ruins - The Sound They Make
Maria Taylor - Lynn Teeter Flower
Immaculate Machine - Fables
Bishop Allen - The Broken String
Thao Nguyen - We Brave Bee Stings And All.
The National - Boxer
Stars - In Our Bedroom After the War
Clap Your Hands Say Yeah - Clap Your Hands Say Yeah
The New Pornographers - Challengers
The 1900s - Cold&Kind
New Ruins - The Sound They Make
Maria Taylor - Lynn Teeter Flower
Immaculate Machine - Fables
Bishop Allen - The Broken String
WHEEEEEEEE
That's a lot of shit.
- Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co. may write down an additional $34 billion in securities linked to the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Citigroup, the biggest U.S. bank, may reduce the value of its holdings by $18.7 billion in the fourth quarter and cut its dividend 40 percent, Goldman analyst William Tanona said in a Dec. 26 report on the New York-based companies. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-largest U.S. bank, may write off $3.4 billion, double Goldman's previous estimate. Merrill Lynch & Co. may reduce its holdings by $11.5 billion, he wrote.
Indeed
When your first reaction to an event like this is to tell voters what you think it says about you, it's time to get off the campaign trail for a few minutes.
And I recognize that these are surrogates, and not the candidates themselves, but at this point in the game the former are just extensions of the latter.
And I recognize that these are surrogates, and not the candidates themselves, but at this point in the game the former are just extensions of the latter.
Ours
I really don't have anything particularly insightful to say about Bhutto or the situation in Pakistan generally, but I do think it's important to understand that she was our woman in Pakistan.
And, unsurprisingly, the know-nothings and the OVP were behind it all.
And, unsurprisingly, the know-nothings and the OVP were behind it all.
I Do Not Understand
Only Villagers could dream of a politics that lacked partisanship.
....ah, the good old days when there were still a bunch of conservative racists in the Democratic party.
Such an awesome big tent that was.
....ah, the good old days when there were still a bunch of conservative racists in the Democratic party.
And the middle of the 20th century was a bit better on the question of cooperation. Back then the political parties tried to be big tents. The Democrats numbered conservative Southerners as well as liberal Northerners.
Such an awesome big tent that was.
McCain: Crazy Warmonger For A Long Time
Even I occasionally get suckered into thinking that McCain might not be so bad, so it's useful to remind ourselves that he was really into going to war with everyone before it was cool. He was Bill "WAR EVERYWHERE" Kristol's boy in 2000. He really likes war.
Bootie Beer and Norma
This WSJ article about one chunk of big shitpile is pretty fascinating. A reasonably accurate shorter version is that they took a several pieces of shit and made a pile, convinced the ratings agencies that the pile of shit was much less risky than the individual pieces of shit were, and then sold the pile again and again using the magic of derivatives.
So Fun Watching Them All Lose
Looking over all the pretty pictures, I can't quite decide which losing Republican will give me more joy. Amazingly, one of them must win. Here's my very personal take on them and their fortunes.
Huckabee - The honest choice. It's his party now. Would drive Villagers insane.
Giuliani - A bad Republican, a bad politician, and an awful person. Would make the worst possible president. Would make the Villagers happy.
McCain - Would make the Villagers squeal with pleasure.
Romney - No one lies like the Mittster lies. Another choice of the Villagers, though decreasingly so it seems. Spent a lot of Tagg's inheritance.
Thompson - who?
Paul - I'm no fan, but it'd be fun to see him at least do well in New Hampshire.
Huckabee - The honest choice. It's his party now. Would drive Villagers insane.
Giuliani - A bad Republican, a bad politician, and an awful person. Would make the worst possible president. Would make the Villagers happy.
McCain - Would make the Villagers squeal with pleasure.
Romney - No one lies like the Mittster lies. Another choice of the Villagers, though decreasingly so it seems. Spent a lot of Tagg's inheritance.
Thompson - who?
Paul - I'm no fan, but it'd be fun to see him at least do well in New Hampshire.
Every Disaster Justifies The Policies
Greg Sargent:
And thank God MSNBC is going to give us the "insight" of Chris Matthews.
...from the credit where credit is due file, Matthews wore his sensible hat today and was fairly reasonable.
It's also worth considering Scarborough's claim that the Bhutto assassination automatically benefits Hillary. Whatever you think of Hillary, he is obviously basing this diagnosis on the presumption that voters automatically look to presumed hawkish candidates in times of peril and confusion. According to this reading, voters will automatically conclude in such situations that they want the candidate who is imagined to be "more willing to use force," whatever that means. There's no chance that voters could be actually evaluating each candidate's foreign policy ideas.
But there's no earthly reason, as Ben Smith notes, to discount the possibility that the assassination could make people more receptive to Obama's argument that "the Clinton/Bush status quo has produced disaster after disaster, and it's time for a change."
Look, I don't have any idea who will benefit politically from Bhutto's assassination. But the point is, neither does Scarborough -- yet he goes right ahead and tells us that it's Rudy and Hillary, anyway. This is just punditry on auto-pilot, the reflexive serving up of diagnoses based on the same old flawed assumptions that have under-girded establishment punditry for well over a decade now, unchanged by external events or all evidence to the contrary. And we'll undoubtedly be hearing lots more of this in the days ahead.
And thank God MSNBC is going to give us the "insight" of Chris Matthews.
...from the credit where credit is due file, Matthews wore his sensible hat today and was fairly reasonable.
Tumble
Mortgage apps:
In a lot of areas, home prices are going to fall to 2002 levels.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage application volume dropped 7.6 percent during the week ending Dec. 21, despite a drop in interest rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey.
The MBA's application index fell to 603.8 from 653.8 the previous week.
In a lot of areas, home prices are going to fall to 2002 levels.
This Is Good News For Rudy Giuliani
According to Joe Scar. I couldn't possibly communicate the logic to you.
Bhutto Killed
Local news sez AP is reporting the Benazir Bhutto was killed in this attack.
...appears she was shot before the bomb.
...appears she was shot before the bomb.
Bhutto was apparently shot at close range as she was leaving the rally in this garrison city south of Islamabad. Immediately after the shooting, a suicide bomber detonated explosives near her car, killing at least 15 other people.
Another Trip to the Confessional
Citigroup to admit it has more of Big Shitpile.
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may cut its dividend by 40 percent to preserve capital and write down more fixed-income securities than it has told investors to expect, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The New York-based bank may write off $18.7 billion in collateralized debt obligations such as subprime mortgages, up from its Nov. 4 estimate of as much as $11 billion, Goldman's William F. Tanona wrote in a note dated Dec. 26. Citigroup, which paid out 54 cents each quarter this year, will have to raise $6.2 billion in extra capital to reach its target, they wrote.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Jenga
Another piece is pulled.
Basically Fitch is saying the insurance is crap and the assets are probably crap. If one side of the deal, at least, doesn't pull it together it's all gonna come crashing down.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
NEW YORK -
Fitch Ratings said late Wednesday it placed credit ratings on residential mortgage-backed securities backed by bond insurers MBIA, Ambac, Financial Guaranty and Security Capital on watch for possible downgrade.
Among those affected are 87 RMBSs insured by MBIA Inc. (nyse: MBE - news - people ), 64 by Ambac Financial Group (nyse: ABK - news - people ) Inc., 35 RMBSs insured by Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. and 19 backed by Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (nyse: SCA - news - people )
Last week, Fitch put the nation's two largest bond insurers, Ambac and MBIA, on warning that the insurers must raise fresh capital or face downgrades. The warning implies the firms' capital cushions aren't deep enough to support the companies if the credit markets continue to deteriorate.
The RMBS classes will remain on rating watch negative while Fitch assesses whether they offer investors enough guarantee of payment on their own, apart from relying on bond insurance.
Basically Fitch is saying the insurance is crap and the assets are probably crap. If one side of the deal, at least, doesn't pull it together it's all gonna come crashing down.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
What's Normal?
In all the talk about the housing market meltdown there seems to be this implicit belief that a "normal" housing market has significant annual price appreciation, if not quite as crazy as the past few years. So a return to normality is thought to be a return to rising prices. But it just isn't the case the home prices go up every year, and after past burst bubbles prices stayed flat for several years.
Home prices are going to fall to a level which makes sense if you aren't factoring in an expected x% appreciation every year. I try to avoid making too many predictions, but I don't think we're anywhere close to that level.
Home prices are going to fall to a level which makes sense if you aren't factoring in an expected x% appreciation every year. I try to avoid making too many predictions, but I don't think we're anywhere close to that level.
Over Soon
The primary season is quite possibly almost over. Though I think it's ridiculously early, I'm glad it won't be bothering us for much longer. There are certainly differences between the candidates, but those differences are either largely unknowable or just not strong enough for me to have ever felt invested in a candidate.
As I wrote before, whoever does get the nomination had better plan to win or they will deservedly become the most hated figure in Democratic politics.
As I wrote before, whoever does get the nomination had better plan to win or they will deservedly become the most hated figure in Democratic politics.
Old Time Religion
I am curious about religious trends in this country and it isn't easy to find good information about it.
I imagine that for quite a long time cultural/ethnic identity was difficult to separate from the religion which was attached to it, but as "white ethnics" become increasingly detached from their roots the religion stuff starts to get chucked out the window. That's my good enough for a blog post theory, anyway.
I don't believe 41% of people in this country are regular churchgoers, though of course that could be an "I don't know anybody who voted for Nixon" thing. Curious what the real number is.
I imagine that for quite a long time cultural/ethnic identity was difficult to separate from the religion which was attached to it, but as "white ethnics" become increasingly detached from their roots the religion stuff starts to get chucked out the window. That's my good enough for a blog post theory, anyway.
I don't believe 41% of people in this country are regular churchgoers, though of course that could be an "I don't know anybody who voted for Nixon" thing. Curious what the real number is.
His Party
Slate had long been one of those many "center left reputation makes it more effective at pushing its center right agenda" institutions that plague our political landscape. And its ex-publisher has found his new calling.
(ht brian in seattle)
The GOP Web site is more interactive and user friendly thanks to the Republican National Committee’s new Internet guru Cyrus Krohn.
...
“I just came to the call of my party,” Krohn tells Newsmax. “It struck me that this is a critical year in terms of electing another Republican to be president. What greater way to serve the country than to come and apply my experience to the party I’m such a strong believer in.”
Krohn began his career as an intern for then Vice President Dan Quayle and worked at CNN as a producer on “Larry King Live” and later “Crossfire.”
(ht brian in seattle)
From The Credit Where Credit Is Due File
Sally Quinn:
How could this happen, in what will soon be 2008, in a pluralistic, multicultural, multireligious society, a society based on the concepts of religious freedom and separation of church and state? What were they thinking?
This resolution was as anti-American as anything Congress has ever passed. It disenfranchised and marginalized millions and millions of men and women, reducing them to second-class citizens.
Times Change
Krugman in Slate.
Slate memories:
That was written in 2003 by Cyrus Krohn who was the publisher of Slate at the time.
Slate memories:
Dear Brad:
As per my voicemail earlier today, I would like to bring to your attention an ongoing problem we're experiencing at Slate.
A prominent East Coast newspaper, The New York Times, has been poaching from Slate, taking key writers and editors invaluable to our evolving franchise. Several years ago I viewed these departures as testament to Slate's reputation within our industry. Being recognized by the media establishment as a breeding ground of top journalists was rewarding. But no longer do I hold these egress offenders in such high regard.
Granted the New York Times has been experiencing talent problems of their own lately, but that's no excuse to "brain drain" us. In my seven years with Slate, I've seen the Times make off with no fewer than five Slatesters. And just last week, they tried to hire away our esteemed editor-in-chief, Jacob Weisberg, according to this item in the New York Post. While the opportunity offered Weisberg was beneath his abilities, I'm thankful he didn't follow his former colleagues.
Our mantra at Slate is to support budding journalists growing in their profession. Should a better opportunity present itself, by all means go forward. But this trend must cease. Our staff are bound by the non-compete clause they signed upon employment, and I was wondering if you could spare some time for Slate now that the DOJ case is behind us? This tortuous contractual interference is beginning to have adverse effects on us.
It's improbable we'll be able to recoup our losses. But just in case, we'd like all of them back except for Paul Krugman.
I appreciate your help and look forward to hearing from you.
Respectfully,
Cyrus
That was written in 2003 by Cyrus Krohn who was the publisher of Slate at the time.
Big Dig Done
Yes it was overbudget and there were delays and corruption.
But whatever the merits of that particular project, it cost less than two months in Iraq, a pointless war which has done nothing but kill huge numbers of people. Oh, and the freedom, the sweet sweet freedom.
But whatever the merits of that particular project, it cost less than two months in Iraq, a pointless war which has done nothing but kill huge numbers of people. Oh, and the freedom, the sweet sweet freedom.
Retail Stories
I try not to get sucked into following holiday retail sales. It seems (could be wrong) that every year we get initial reports of cautious optimism by retailers followed by stories of doom and gloom capped off with the final it was pretty good after all narrative.
For those concerned about the fortunes of retailers, the sales data don't mean much anyway as they don't tell us anything about just how low prices were cut to get those sales.
Still if this data is to be believed, sales fell in real terms this year. Perhaps we're winning the war on Christmas after all!
For those concerned about the fortunes of retailers, the sales data don't mean much anyway as they don't tell us anything about just how low prices were cut to get those sales.
Still if this data is to be believed, sales fell in real terms this year. Perhaps we're winning the war on Christmas after all!
Not the Bottom
Home prices still falling.
There are big regional variations unsurprisingly.
NEW YORK (AP) -- U.S. home prices fell in October for the 10th consecutive month, posting their biggest monthly decline since early 1991, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index.
The record 6.7 percent drop marked the 23rd consecutive month of price deceleration.
There are big regional variations unsurprisingly.
Tuesday, December 25, 2007
Ed Henry Can't Stop Fluffing
I really just don't comprehend these people.
WASHINGTON (CNN) – It's hard to imagine a tough guy from Texas shopping for a pocketbook, but President Bush gave his wife a new purse and a silver tray for Christmas, according to an aide to First Lady Laura Bush.
Some Happy Xmas News
California court makes it harder for insurance companies to rescind policies.
Basically they were using accusations of fraud to rescind policies, but only after people got sick.
If I were a progressive activist with a few bucks looking for a mission I'd set up a foundation for the purpose of finding people getting fucked over by their insurance companies and to giving every case the full PR treatment.
California health insurers have a duty to check the accuracy of applications for coverage before issuing policies -- and should not wait until patients run up big medical bills, a state appeals court ruled Monday.
The court also said insurers could not cancel a medical policy unless they showed that the policyholder willfully misrepresented his health or that the company had investigated the application before it issued coverage.
...
The court also highlighted the testimony of Blue Shield's underwriting investigator that the company referred about 1,000 claims a year to her for investigations of possible application omissions and misstatements. Yet, the court wrote, the investigator said she rescinded less than 1% of them.
"These facts raise the specter that Blue Shield does not immediately rescind health care contracts upon learning of potential grounds for rescission, but waits until after the claims submitted under that contract exceed the monthly premiums being collected," the court wrote.
A health plan, the court went on, "may not adopt a 'wait and see' attitude after learning of facts justifying rescission." The court said companies could not continue to "collect premiums while keeping open its rescission option if the subscriber later experiences a serious accident or illness that generates large medical expenses."
Basically they were using accusations of fraud to rescind policies, but only after people got sick.
If I were a progressive activist with a few bucks looking for a mission I'd set up a foundation for the purpose of finding people getting fucked over by their insurance companies and to giving every case the full PR treatment.
Morning Thread
When I was a kid, we would have been decently up and clamoring for our gifts for two hours by now.
Kids today.
--Molly I.
Kids today.
--Molly I.
Monday, December 24, 2007
History
Indeed. I wish everyone knew this history as it's a rather simple story not often well told by Villagers who both ignore racism and miss the good old bipartisan racist days. The Democratic party was the racism party for quite some time! Guilty as charged! Then the racists retired, died, or became Republicans!
Second Deep Thought of the Day
I'm starting to think that all of the God talk by conservatives was just yet another cynical ruse to gain and maintain power.
Deep Thought of The Day
It's odd that the Clintons use their mind-control powers to force our very serious press corps to write about their relationship all the time.
Fun Free Stuff On The Intertubes
Just in case people aren't aware, archive.org has the live music archive compilation of live music recordings. It's artist opt-in, so it's all legal.
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Another Great Success
Nobody could've predicted...
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — After the United States has spent more than $5 billion in a largely failed effort to bolster the Pakistani military effort against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, some American officials now acknowledge that there were too few controls over the money. The strategy to improve the Pakistani military, they said, needs to be completely revamped.
In interviews in Islamabad and Washington, Bush administration and military officials said they believed that much of the American money was not making its way to frontline Pakistani units. Money has been diverted to help finance weapons systems designed to counter India, not Al Qaeda or the Taliban, the officials said, adding that the United States has paid tens of millions of dollars in inflated Pakistani reimbursement claims for fuel, ammunition and other costs.
“I personally believe there is exaggeration and inflation,” said a senior American military official who has reviewed the program, referring to Pakistani requests for reimbursement. “Then, I point back to the United States and say we didn’t have to give them money this way.”
Drowning
I have no near-drowning experience, and don't have any knowledge or opinion of the aquatic ape theory. However I did for a few months after an illness have a period when I'd experience relatively minor asthma-like episodes. And even with those relatively minor episodes which were very far removed from actually inhaling a bunch of water, there would sometimes be a point where there was a deep primal feeling of panic over the (very temporary) inability to breathe.
Yes waterboarding is torture.
Yes waterboarding is torture.
Short Sales
Florida fun.
At Selling Paradise Realty, a sign seeks customers with a free list of properties facing foreclosure and “short sales,” meaning the price is less than the owner owes the bank. Inside, Eileen Rodriguez, the receptionist, said the firm could no longer hand out the list. “We can’t print it anymore,” she says. “It’s too long.”
In late November, more than 2,600 of the 5,500 properties for sale in Cape Coral were short sales, says Bobby Mahan, the firm’s owner and broker. Most people who bought in 2004 and 2005 owe more than they paid, he says. “Greed and speculation created the monster.”
As much as anything, the short sales are responsible for the market logjam. To complete a deal, the lender holding the mortgage must be persuaded to share in the loss and write off some of what is due. “A short sale is a long and arduous process,” Mr. Mahan says. “Battling the banks is horrendous.”
Many Sides to Every Deal
I think one part of the housing story which hasn't quite been emphasized enough is the simple fact that buying a house is a complex transaction involving many parties. Economists are aware of transaction costs, but like so many complicating factors they tend to assume them away when they start talking about the issue.
Also, many housing deals involve a party which much sell their old house before they move to a new one, especially as no money down financing dries up. Even if someone can afford to hold two mortgages temporarily, often people have their down payment in their old house.
In the best of times the housing market has a lot of friction. And now...
Also, many housing deals involve a party which much sell their old house before they move to a new one, especially as no money down financing dries up. Even if someone can afford to hold two mortgages temporarily, often people have their down payment in their old house.
Missoula builder Joe Stanford doesn't need fancy statistics or color-coded foreclosure maps to tell him America's subprime mortgage crisis has arrived here.
Like other builders and real estate agents, his deals have been scotched or delayed by buyers who first must sell their homes in stagnant markets.
He's stuck when out-of-state buyers who want to relocate to his Lolo and Missoula residences can't sell their houses in Denver, Chicago and Los Angeles.
*
“We've put deals together here, but everything is contingent on them selling their homes. They got into subprime loans and bought houses they couldn't afford unless they financed it with those. When the market dropped, they lost their chance to sell,” he said.
In the best of times the housing market has a lot of friction. And now...
Witnesses
I didn't do any update on the Martin Luther Mitt story because I thought it a bit weird that a new org. (okay, it's The Politico, but still) was actually relying on eyewitness accounts from 44 years go to "debunk" the debunking. Unsurprisingly, Drudgico got punk'd.
As I've said several times, contra some I worry about Mitt as a candidate despite the Mormonism because of his willingness to lie about literally everything. It's a powerful skill, made even more powerful when you have media allies who will launder those lies for you.
As I've said several times, contra some I worry about Mitt as a candidate despite the Mormonism because of his willingness to lie about literally everything. It's a powerful skill, made even more powerful when you have media allies who will launder those lies for you.
Exporting Wingnuttery
Why does Christmas make people so angry? I'm an atheist, and I somehow manage to enjoy it!
Sunday Bobblehead Thread
Document the atrocities:
At least Hecate will be pleased: five women!
--Molly I.
C-Span's Washington Journal: 7:30am Jeffrey Bell, Weekly Standard; 8:30am Peter Beinart, Council on Foreign Relations.
ABC's This Week: Rudy Giuliani; Roundtable:EJ Dionne, Torie Clarke, Cokie Roberts, and George Will; "Voice" Caroline Kennedy on her new book "A Family Christmas."
CNN Late Edition: Excerpts of previous interviews are featured in an end-of-year special.
CBS' Face The Nation: Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Fox News Sunday: Gen. David Petraeus; Joel Osteen.
NBC's Meet The Press: Ron Paul (R). John Harwood and Chuck Todd.
Chris Matthews Show: Katty Kay, BBC Washington Correspondent; Dan Rather, HD Net Global Correspondent; Andrew Sullivan, The Atlantic Senior Editor; Norah O'Donnell, MSNBC.
Sixty Minutes: Joel Osteen; Genetic Genealogy; Tom Brady, NE Patriots quarterback.
At least Hecate will be pleased: five women!
--Molly I.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Oh Happy Day
Tom Friedman:
And there was much rejoicing throughout the land.
This is my last column until April.
And there was much rejoicing throughout the land.
WTF
Don't mean to steal the Irvine Housing Blog's schtick here, but it is immensely fascinating to look at SoCal real estate listings. The quantity of properties on the market, the absurd prices/appreciation rates that people seem to believe they're entitled to, etc.
And, hey, whatever price they can get, but there's 13+ months worth of inventory in that area.
And, hey, whatever price they can get, but there's 13+ months worth of inventory in that area.
Can't Outsource the Plumber
It's true that certain types of high skilled service jobs don't really face foreign competition.
It's somewhat heretical to say, but I'm one of those who thinks that too many people go to college, though it may be individually rational for them to do so given the signaling nature of it. That is, going to college doesn't really transform people into better works for a lot of jobs, but employers require a college education because it's how people signal they aren't a "complete loser"* who couldn't even manage to graduate from college.
*To be clear, I don't think one needs to graduate from college to avoid loserdom. That's my whole point! It's just that in our society it's become an entrance ticket to a lot of careers even when the education you get in college isn't really training for those careers.
Even college grads might want to consider blue-collar careers. Last year, because U.S. News readers tend to be college educated, we included only careers that typically require at least a bachelor's degree. This year we've added four careers that don't. Why? More and more students are graduating from college at the same time that employers are offshoring more professional jobs. So, many holders of a bachelor's degree are having trouble finding jobs that require college-graduate skills. Meanwhile, society has been telling high school students that college is the way, so there's an accelerating shortage of skilled people in jobs that don't require college. (Why else do you think you have to pay $100 an hour for a plumber?)
It's somewhat heretical to say, but I'm one of those who thinks that too many people go to college, though it may be individually rational for them to do so given the signaling nature of it. That is, going to college doesn't really transform people into better works for a lot of jobs, but employers require a college education because it's how people signal they aren't a "complete loser"* who couldn't even manage to graduate from college.
*To be clear, I don't think one needs to graduate from college to avoid loserdom. That's my whole point! It's just that in our society it's become an entrance ticket to a lot of careers even when the education you get in college isn't really training for those careers.
Looking for Help From Republicans
I have to admit likely Republican voters are kinda cute. I mean, it's a bit weird to expect to hear something about government addressing a problem from Republicans.
Assuming the article is characterizing this person correctly, I think it's safe to say she's attending the wrong rallies.
Now I'm not claiming that Democrats are all awesome about everything, but occasionally think that maybe government's supposed to do something other than starting catastrophic wars sometimes.
Democratic voters aren't the only ones worried. Foreclosures are a "big problem not being addressed," said Rachel Serianz, a 58-year-old education professor from Davenport, after attending a Mike Huckabee rally in Iowa on Friday. "Our whole economy is not going to be helped by depriving people of their homes."
Assuming the article is characterizing this person correctly, I think it's safe to say she's attending the wrong rallies.
Now I'm not claiming that Democrats are all awesome about everything, but occasionally think that maybe government's supposed to do something other than starting catastrophic wars sometimes.
He said the idea wouldn't be a government-mandated solution. "This would all be done on a voluntary basis," he said. The Romney idea seems to be a variation on the plan Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has created to get loan servicers and investors to ease the terms on some troubled mortgages. Aides say Mr. Romney has also talked about expanding an existing government-chartered, affordable-housing organization called NeighborWorks America.
Arizona Sen. John McCain, meantime, said his economic team was preparing a plan to combat the problem, though he didn't give specifics. "I believe that government action is the last resort and not the first resort," he told CNBC. A campaign aide indicated a new plan would come out after Christmas.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Lord Please Make Them Stop
Maybe millionaire Mitt Romney should film a commercial of him sitting on the couch in his boxing shorts watching bowling on the teevee with one hand clasping a beer and the other one in a bag of pork rinds.
There really is practically nothing worse about campaign coverage than Beltway elites imagining how "reglar folks" live and eat and then demanding that presidential candidates pretend that they're just like that!
Who the fuck cares how Mitt Romney eats his pizza?
Just kill me.
I heard the other day that Mitt Romney is so careful with his weight that he will pick the cheese off his pizza. Then I heard from another source that he eats pizza with a knife and fork. That's two sources, two angles: That's practically confirmation.
I just can't imagine the American people electing as president someone who does that to pizza. I'm not saying a president has to have a special knack for eating pizza - what you call "pizza talent" - but he or she has to respect the pizza, and look comfortable with it.
You want, as a voter, to be able to say, "He looks like he knows his way around a pizza."
There really is practically nothing worse about campaign coverage than Beltway elites imagining how "reglar folks" live and eat and then demanding that presidential candidates pretend that they're just like that!
Who the fuck cares how Mitt Romney eats his pizza?
Just kill me.
The Death of Super-Shitpile
Apparently the great idea of setting up a fund to bail themselves out - and conning others into contributing - isn't going to work after all.
"Nobody could have predicted..."
"Nobody could have predicted..."
McCainia
I've mocked the endless "McCain comeback!" narratives peddled by his sycophants in the press, but perhaps he'll end up being the John Kerry of 2008 after all.
So Much For That
Schumer, last January.
Oddly we'll still be in Iraq next November, soldiers will continue to die until then, though hopefully the lower casualty rates remain, there will be no substantial troop withdrawals, and the pony will not magically appear.
Still we can expect a Democratic establishment telling candidates "don't mention the war" once again.
SEN. SCHUMER: Well, I think the bottom line is that the president will have no choice but to begin a withdrawal come this summer or fall of 2007. And that’s why I think the 2008 election, Tim, is going to turn on a positive platform. That’s what I’ve written...
MR. RUSSERT: Not Iraq.
SEN. SCHUMER: Not Iraq. I think we do have to discuss how to deal with the war on terror in the future. But I think that the president has shown so little veering from this plan, which is a disaster, that by 2000--early 2008, even he is going to be forced to withdraw troops from Iraq.
Oddly we'll still be in Iraq next November, soldiers will continue to die until then, though hopefully the lower casualty rates remain, there will be no substantial troop withdrawals, and the pony will not magically appear.
Still we can expect a Democratic establishment telling candidates "don't mention the war" once again.
Tent City
Tent City!
There's a narrow window in the period just after people slip through the cracks when they are seen sympathetically, as "people like us" who had bad luck. As time goes by, they fast cease to be "like us" and sympathy fades.
ONTARIO, Calif., Dec 21 (Reuters) - Between railroad tracks and beneath the roar of departing planes sits "tent city," a terminus for homeless people. It is not, as might be expected, in a blighted city center, but in the once-booming suburbia of Southern California.
The noisy, dusty camp sprang up in July with 20 residents and now numbers 200 people, including several children, growing as this region east of Los Angeles has been hit by the U.S. housing crisis.
There's a narrow window in the period just after people slip through the cracks when they are seen sympathetically, as "people like us" who had bad luck. As time goes by, they fast cease to be "like us" and sympathy fades.
Bankruptcy
Karma aside, this does point to the fact that sensible personal bankruptcy provisions are necessary for a well-functioning modern capitalist economy. While such laws do provide some relief for the debtor, they actually exist primarily for the benefit of creditors. Make it too hard or pointless for debtors to seek bankruptcy protection and creditors will get screwed too.
Be Careful What You Wish For
Brendan writes in to remind us of this from a 6 or so weeks ago.
As I wrote at the time I'm not quite sure that this article really proves the point that the Bankruptcy Bill is fully responsible for this, though the more I think about it the more it makes sense to me. If there was still a decent route to sensible bankrtupcy terms, people would prioritize the house over the credit cards. As it stands, it makes sense to walk away from the house and keep the credit cards.
The karma gods are laughing.
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc. got what it wanted in 2005: A revised bankruptcy code that no longer lets people walk away from credit card bills.
The largest U.S. savings and loan didn't count on a housing recession. The new bankruptcy laws are helping drive foreclosures to a record as homeowners default on mortgages and struggle to pay credit card debts that might have been wiped out under the old code, said Jay Westbrook, a professor of business law at the University of Texas Law School in Austin and a former adviser to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
``Be careful what you wish for,'' Westbrook said. ``They wanted to make sure that people kept paying their credit cards, and what they're getting is more foreclosures.''
As I wrote at the time I'm not quite sure that this article really proves the point that the Bankruptcy Bill is fully responsible for this, though the more I think about it the more it makes sense to me. If there was still a decent route to sensible bankrtupcy terms, people would prioritize the house over the credit cards. As it stands, it makes sense to walk away from the house and keep the credit cards.
The karma gods are laughing.
Leading Indicator
I forget who, but someone recently suggested that the fortunes of chain high end steak houses and similar were a pretty good leading indicator for the fortunes of a certain segment of the population. They're the kind of places that people who don't go to expensive restaurants all that often go to for "special" meals, and when money's tight those meals don't happen.
NEW YORK -
Shares of NEW YORK -
Shares of McCormick & Schmick's Seafood Restaurants Inc. sank to their lowest level in more than three years Friday after the company cut its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings guidance because of weak traffic.
The company is the latest restaurant operator to either slash its guidance or warn investors of weak earnings due to slow sales and traffic. Earlier this week, shares of Ruby Tuesday Inc., Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc. and Darden Restaurants Inc. - which operates the Olive Garden and Red Lobster chains - hit new lows after telling investors upcoming earnings would not meet expectations. Seafood Restaurants Inc. sank to their lowest level in more than three years Friday after the company cut its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings guidance because of weak traffic.
The company is the latest restaurant operator to either slash its guidance or warn investors of weak earnings due to slow sales and traffic. Earlier this week, shares of Ruby Tuesday Inc., Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc. and Darden Restaurants Inc. - which operates the Olive Garden and Red Lobster chains - hit new lows after telling investors upcoming earnings would not meet expectations.
Jingle All The Way
The economically rational thing for many underwater homeowners is to put the keys in the mail and walk away. I think it's pretty funny that the industry is hoping that social norms will prevent people from doing so. Perhaps they should spend a little time worrying about their own social norms which led them to hand out all of those bullshit loans in the first place.
ACA Fallout
The downgrade of ACA Capital has made Merrill a wee bit desperate. According to CNBC, they may have to write down another $7 billion on top of the $8+ billion that's already been flushed. They're trying to get $5 billion from a Singapore sovereign wealth fund.
Golden Duke
Congratulations, Vince Fumo!
Let's hope Anne Dicker can rid us of this awful man.
State Sen. Vincent J. Fumo (D., Philadelphia) has been nominated for a "Golden Duke" award in the category of Best Local Scandal over at Talking Points Memo, a national progressive blog that helped push investigations into the firing of U.S. Attorneys by former AG Alberto Gonzalez.
Fumo's got some impressive credentials: a 139 count indictment for fraud and obstruction of justice that includes allegations taxpayers helped pay for his 33-room mansion, fix leaky toilets, work as a farmhand on his 100-acre hobby farm, pay his personal bills, organize fundraisers, and wrap 150 Vince Fumo bobble head dolls. He also allegedly used taxpayer money to hire private investigators to spy on his political rivals, his ex-wife, former girlfriends, and their new boyfriends.
Let's hope Anne Dicker can rid us of this awful man.
Fire Sale
Chrysler has problems.
Chrysler LLC has slipped into a serious financial crunch just four months after Cerberus Capital Management LP swept in to save the auto maker.
At a meeting earlier this month, Chief Executive Robert Nardelli told employees the company is headed for a substantial loss this year and is scrambling to sell assets to raise cash, according to an account by two people present that Mr. Nardelli confirmed.
"Someone asked me, 'Are we bankrupt?'" Mr. Nardelli said at the meeting. "Technically, no. Operationally, yes. The only thing that keeps us from going into bankruptcy is the $10 billion investors entrusted us with."
Couldn't Happen to a Nicer Company
Circuit City:
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Circuit City Stores Inc., the second-largest U.S. consumer-electronics retailer, reported a fifth straight loss and said it won't make money this quarter, when it typically generates most of its annual profit.
The chain dropped 32 percent in early New York trading.
The loss widened to $207.3 million, or $1.26 a share, from a loss of $20.4 million, or 12 cents, a year earlier. Sales dropped 3.1 percent to $2.94 billion, the Richmond, Virginia- based company said today in a statement. It was the third consecutive quarterly revenue decline.
Circuit City, which cut 10 percent of its U.S. workforce this year and hired people willing to work for less, is losing market share to larger rival Best Buy Co. Sales in stores open at least 12 months fell 5.6 percent in the third quarter.
Hop on Pop
Awesome:
Who is your favorite author?” Aleya Deatsch, 7, of West Des Moines asked Mr. Huckabee in one of those posing-like-a-shopping-mall-Santa moments.
Mr. Huckabee paused, then said his favorite author was Dr. Seuss.
In an interview afterward with the news media, Aleya said she was somewhat surprised. She thought the candidate would be reading at a higher level.
“My favorite author is C. S. Lewis,” she said.
Morning Thread
You know, I'm an English literature major, and it didn't cause me to imagine my dad in a B-52 or a Santa suit or anything.
--Molly I.
--Molly I.
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Intrade
I think it's fun to check out Intrade action, though I'm driven mad by people who think they're anything more than a reflection of the CW of the type of people who like to trade on Intrade.
Fun fact: At his peak, George Allen was trading at 32, meaning "the market" thought there was 32% chance that he'd be the nominee.
Macaca!
Fun fact: At his peak, George Allen was trading at 32, meaning "the market" thought there was 32% chance that he'd be the nominee.
Macaca!
The Patriots Aren't That Awesome
Lyin' Mitch Romney:
CBS News: “Did you actually see — with your own eyes — your father marching with Martin Luther King?”
Romney: “My own eyes? You know, I speak in the sense of I saw my dad become president of American Motors. I wasn’t actually there when he became president of American Motors, but I saw him in the figurative sense of he marched with Martin Luther King. My brother also remembers him marching with Martin Luther King and so in that sense I saw him march with Martin Luther King.”
Later he said, “I can’t even give you the time frame. I just remember that we talked about it. My brother also remembers my dad having spoken about the fact that he did not do political events on Sunday but that he decided at the last minute that he was going to break that self-imposed rule and participate and I think he did so on a Sunday as I recall.”
He added, “You know, I’m an English literature major as well. When we say, ‘I saw the Patriots win the World Series, it doesn’t necessarily mean you were there — excuse me, the Super Bowl. I saw my dad become president of American Motors. Did that mean you were there for the ceremony? No, it’s a figure of speech.”
Classic
Blame the Media:
The press spent the first half of the year or more dutifully advertising the NAR's absurdly optimistic projections.
Media coverage of housing trends often gives the impression that the market is worse off than it really is, according to the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
Lawrence Yun, in presentations Wednesday to Kansas City area real estate agents, said the media’s biggest mistake was too much reporting on nationwide real estate trends. National trends alone, he said, don’t apply to many parts of the country, and reporting of them usually lacks perspective.
For instance, Yun reported that the national median (or midpoint) home price this year was on its way to its first overall decline since the Depression. Already, he said, the media drumbeat is repeating the word “depression,” thus depressing consumer confidence and keeping potential homebuyers out of the market.
The press spent the first half of the year or more dutifully advertising the NAR's absurdly optimistic projections.
Matt Drudge Rules His (and their) World
America's Worst JournalistTM Mark Halperin.
As I wrote over a year ago:
Why is Drudge highlighting the McCain story, but has not touched other political hot potatoes that are swirling in the ether? Answer that, and you probably will have a better handle on who the major parties will nominate than any polling data can give you.
As I wrote over a year ago:
I don't know if Halperin and Harris know this, or put this in their book, but one largely uncommented on fact is that Matt Drudge really really really hates McCain. At least he did in the past.
Monoliners
Roubini:
This is right. The whole system is screwed up.
So enough of wasting time on dissecting the assets and liabilities and capital of individual monoliners; their business model is conceptually flawed in the first place; and their actual business practices have been even more flawed as they have now insured for years toxic RMBS, CDOs, and CDOs of CDOs. The wariness of rating agencies to downgrade the monoliners is understandable: such a downgrade will imply an instant death sentence for any monoliner that is downgraded; it will lead to loss of business for the rating agencies themselves; and it will trigger massive losses on muni bonds.
But the current charade of pretending that the monoliners are under review to give them time to raise more capital to avoid such a downgrade is another case of rating agencies supporting a rotten business model. The actual behavior of such monoliners has proven that they are not transparent, that they hold or insure a mass of skeletons and toxic waste securities and they have been dishonest in hiding from investors the toxic waste that they hold and insure. So it is time to stop this charade of rating forbearance and admit that the emperor has no clothes: a business model that cannot survive without an AAA rating is conceptually a business model that cannot deserve under any circumstance an AAA rating; period! Arguing otherwise is believing in voodoo black magic.
This is right. The whole system is screwed up.
"Taking Responsibility"
It's so absurd.
...adding, the absurdity is that society gets to chime in on what this girl should be doing with her uterus while simultaneously suggesting she's "bad" for having gotten pregnant. Teens have sex and some will inevitably get pregnant. We've gotten so weird about sex that we like to pretend teens don't have sex, which is even a big change from the "sex=death" era I grew up in when while people tried to scare us from having sex nobody really pretended it was uncommon.
...oy. link=death. C&P. http://fauxrealtho.com/2007/12/19/taking-responsibility/
and more at LG&M.
...adding, the absurdity is that society gets to chime in on what this girl should be doing with her uterus while simultaneously suggesting she's "bad" for having gotten pregnant. Teens have sex and some will inevitably get pregnant. We've gotten so weird about sex that we like to pretend teens don't have sex, which is even a big change from the "sex=death" era I grew up in when while people tried to scare us from having sex nobody really pretended it was uncommon.
...oy. link=death. C&P. http://fauxrealtho.com/2007/12/19/taking-responsibility/
and more at LG&M.
Good Parenting
And more.
Now one can mock the mother for writing a parenting book if her schtick was defining good parenting for girls as making sure they kept their legs closed long enough. But this is exactly what the Inquirer is buying into. Her daughter got pregnant, so Lynne is a bad parent, and therefore it's absurd that she'd write a book about good parenting.
Still, with this latest episode in the lives of the Spears family, one can't help wondering who was the genius who contracted the sisters' mother, Lynne, to write a book on parenting. The project reportedly has been put on hold. But given the problems her daughters have had, it's hard to believe the book was ever in the works.
Now one can mock the mother for writing a parenting book if her schtick was defining good parenting for girls as making sure they kept their legs closed long enough. But this is exactly what the Inquirer is buying into. Her daughter got pregnant, so Lynne is a bad parent, and therefore it's absurd that she'd write a book about good parenting.
Slutty Slutty Slut Slut Slut Slut Slut Slutty Slut
Ah, the glorious Philadelphia Inquirer.
"Indiscretion."
Bite me, Inquirer. Teenagers have sex. Frequently. This is perfectly normal behavior. Sometimes when they do they get pregnant. And when they do they can either carry the child to term or have an abortion. This isn't an "indiscretion." It's perfectly standard behavior no matter how much our stupid society likes to pretend otherwise.
Nickelodeon, however, appears to have little alternative but to fire Jamie Lynn. No doubt her co-stars are furious that her indiscretion may cost them their jobs, too.
"Indiscretion."
Bite me, Inquirer. Teenagers have sex. Frequently. This is perfectly normal behavior. Sometimes when they do they get pregnant. And when they do they can either carry the child to term or have an abortion. This isn't an "indiscretion." It's perfectly standard behavior no matter how much our stupid society likes to pretend otherwise.
Shitpile Squared
And another bond insurer is likely to go tits up.
In case you were wondering what a CDO-squared is, it's when you have a piece of Big Shitpile (CDO) and you issue debt using it, or pieces of it, as collateral. Bad debt issued on top of bad debt.
Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. tumbled the most since 1987, and the risk of default soared after the world's biggest bond insurer revealed that it guarantees $8.1 billion of collateralized debt obligations repackaging other CDOs and securities linked to subprime mortgages.
Credit-default swaps tied to Armonk, New York-based MBIA's bonds climbed 115 basis points to 595 basis points, the widest on record, according to CMA Datavision in London. MBIA shares plunged $4.73, or 18 percent, to $22.29 as of 9:38 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
MBIA posted a document on its Web site late yesterday showing it insured the so-called CDOs-squared, a potentially riskier form of security than what the company typically guarantees. Rising defaults on subprime mortgages packaged into securities have led to bond downgrades and threatened MBIA's AAA guaranty rating.
In case you were wondering what a CDO-squared is, it's when you have a piece of Big Shitpile (CDO) and you issue debt using it, or pieces of it, as collateral. Bad debt issued on top of bad debt.
Thursday is New Jobless Day
While new jobless claims still aren't extremely high, they've definitely been creeping upwards.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance rose to 346,000 in the week ended Dec. 15 from a slightly upwardly revised 334,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Wall Street economists predicted claims would rise to 335,000 from the originally reported 333,000 claims for the week ended Dec. 8.
The rise in new claims nudged the four-week moving average to up to 343,000, its highest since October 2005 when they measured 358,250. The moving average, which irons out
week-to-week fluctuations, was 338,750 the prior week.
Stigma
Apparently banks are shy. They don't want their secrets revealed. They don't want to reveal their exposure to big shitpile. They don't want anyone - customers, investors, the press - to know that they want to borrow some money from the Fed. And the Fed is rewarding their desire to keep things hidden with an opportunity to borrow money without anyone knowing they're borrowing money.
It's so absurd.
It's so absurd.
Good morning, Atriots!
How come it gets into the news just fine when Republicans call Democrats "obstructionist", but when Republicans break the record for filibustering - something they assured us not that long ago was evil - the media doesn't appear to notice?
Well, perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Harry Reid, unaccountably, never says, "Great! We'll be delighted to watch you explain for days on end why you think taking care of America is a bad idea! We'll get the popcorn!"
The guy just has no sense of theater.
Also, remember what Sara said:
Signed,
Not Atrios
Well, perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Harry Reid, unaccountably, never says, "Great! We'll be delighted to watch you explain for days on end why you think taking care of America is a bad idea! We'll get the popcorn!"
The guy just has no sense of theater.
Also, remember what Sara said:
Oprah Winfrey once said that the best advice she ever got in her life was from Maya Angelou, who said: "When people tell you who they are -- believe them."
I've gotten good mileage from this advice over the years. Being raised fundie, you spend a lot of your life being told to believe someone else's preposterous interpretation of events over your own lying eyes. Growing up this way really twists your reality lenses; and those of us who come out of it as adults spend a lot of time and energy learning to see and interpret the world clearly again. Angelou's quote is one of the mantras that gave me permission to trust my own observations of what people were saying and doing, knock off the false hopes and wishful thinking, accept this information as literal truth, and rely on it as an accurate indicator about how they were likely to behave in the future. It's knowledge that was acquired late, but has since kept me out of an amazing amount of trouble.
It struck me recently that, too often, we've been very slow to believe conservatives, even when they told us in no uncertain terms who they were. Some things were easy to acknowledge, even in the early years: they're the party of business, they don't care much about the middle and lower class, they believe in hierarchy and aristocracy and low taxes. Others came later: it took us a while to really admit to ourselves that they were pandering to racists, that they were perfectly willing to throw the middle class overboard, and that they didn't really care whether or not a rising tide lifted all boats. The hardest realizations have been the most recent ones: that these people are openly willing to destroy the Constitution, the country, and the planet in the name of privilege and profit; that they have absolutely no concept of the common good, and that the most horrible accusations they level at us should always be taken as an open admission of what they're intending to do themselves.
Signed,
Not Atrios
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