Friday, October 31, 2008
That's Enough
Save some of that candy for tomorrow. We'll run out of thread if you people don't calm down.
Ground Game
Sean Quinn:
I've actually long thought, with no evidence, that the Bush ground game was in fact a Big Myth.
We read the published comments from McCain spokespeople that argue the dialing/canvassing numbers are ahead of where they were at the same time four years ago. Well, either the Bush ground game of 2004 was the Big Myth, or those spokespeople are flat lying to reporters, who have no context to challenge those claims because they haven't seen the empty offices the way we have.
I've actually long thought, with no evidence, that the Bush ground game was in fact a Big Myth.
Deep Thought
I admit it's a bit disconcerting to see a group of adult men get very very excited over the arrival of the Phillie Phanatic.
What's Ahead
Digby:
Indeed. They'll try to bring Obama down on some abuse of power scandal. Should be fun!
I think we're about to get schooled. Again. The torture loving right is dusting off its completely hypocritical "government is full of jack-booted thugs" playbook --- and it's going to drive us all completely crazy.
Indeed. They'll try to bring Obama down on some abuse of power scandal. Should be fun!
Wasting Money On The Teevee
Doing that instead of focusing on GOTV efforts seems a bit odd to me. Maybe it's just a maverick thing!
Deep Thought
I think Mayor Nutter had that trophy surgically attached to his hands.
...all inbound Septa regional rail service suspended.
...all inbound Septa regional rail service suspended.
Nervous Before
One somewhat weird thing about this race was that even as Obama's national poll lead held fairly constant, there were some worrying states like New Hampshire and Minnesota where he was either not consistently ahead or not consistently ahead by much. That isn't the case anymore.
Mortal Kombat
One of McCain's standard stump lines is something along the lines that he's "not afraid of the fight." 4 days from the election do you think there's a single person in this country, even among the mostly stupid undecided voters, who thinks, "gee, I wonder if John McCain is afraid of the fight?"
Our discourse is so stupid generally, and the McCain campaign is aiming even below that.
Our discourse is so stupid generally, and the McCain campaign is aiming even below that.
Why Yes You Have
HULK IN DENIAL.
"I've not been convicted yet," Stevens said Thursday in a meeting with the editorial board of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. "There's not a black mark by my name yet, until the appeal is over and I am finally convicted, if that happens. If that happens, of course I'll do what's right for Alaska and for the Senate. ... I don't anticipate it happening, and until it happens I do not have a black mark."
Stevens reiterated that position during a televised debate late Thursday night, declaring early in the give-and-take with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, "I have not been convicted of anything."
Palin
I never thought it would be some sort of mistake to attack Palin, though I did hold off until I had a better idea of what she was actually like. Fortunately, she revealed that rather quickly making attacks from liberals rather redundant.
The Today Show
I realize that the Halloween episode might not be the best time to judge this product, but should I be more horrified at the number of people who watch this every day or the number of people who travel to New York so they can stand outside the studio where it's filmed?
Hey, Kids, Get Off My Lawn
Funny. Arizona Republic:
There is little doubt that Democrats generally will do well Tuesday. And, if District 3 voters are dissatisfied with Shadegg's conservative politics, Lord may join a large freshman class of Democrats.
But local voter dissatisfaction is one thing. What Moulitsas seeks has the unseemly scent of wild-eyed vengeance. The fellow is looking for GOP bodies over which to stand.
The Arizona Republic has urged District 3 voters to re-elect Shadegg. As "Kos" himself notes, Shadegg is the "topmost conservative in the House."
But now we add another reason to support the incumbent: Politics isn't - or shouldn't be - blood sport. Re-elect John Shadegg and give an out-of-state political barbarian something to weep about on Election Day.
Wingnut Affirmative Action
Always such a big help.
Appearing once again on The Daily Show, Bill Kristol, Jon Stewart's favorite whipping boy ("Bill Kristol, aren't you ever right?"), tonight defended the McCain-Palin ticket, at one point informing the show's host that he was getting his news from suspect sources. "You're reading The New York Times too much," he declared.
"But you work for The New York Times," Stewart pointed out
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Hope
Obama at Al Smith dinner:
Clark Kent on Smallville tonight:
Contrary to the rumors that you've heard, I was not born in a manger. I was actually born on Krypton and sent here by my father, Jor-El, to save the planet Earth.
Clark Kent on Smallville tonight:
Maybe my destiny is more than just secretly saving people. Maybe it's also to give people hope.
DEAD PEOPLE ARE VOTING FOR OBAMA
I'm sure the Republicans will try to invalidate this vote.
Fearful that November was too long to wait, her daughter sent for an absentee ballot. It arrived last week.
“She made her mark, and we put it in the envelope, my brother and I walked to the mailbox, it was 11 o’clock Wednesday morning and I said ‘Mom its in the mail, you’ve done your thing, Barack’s going to win,’ and she kind of smiled and it was kind of a deep sigh, a sigh of relief, and in less than an hour later, she died,” said M. Fitzgerald.
Full Circle
Credit card issuers have discovered that maybe it's sometimes in their interest to forgive a portion of credit card debt. They've realized this after they lobbied hard to make bankruptcy a worse deal for consumers. Instead of declaring bankruptcy, people now just walk away from their debts. Now they want the government to make it easier for them to forgive credit card debt by making the tax treatment of forgiven debt more generous.
Bankruptcy protection, like limited liability, is there because the system doesn't really work without it. Unbalance the system too much by messing with them and it stops working. Heckuva job, credit card lobbyists.
Bankruptcy protection, like limited liability, is there because the system doesn't really work without it. Unbalance the system too much by messing with them and it stops working. Heckuva job, credit card lobbyists.
Poll Porn
Obama up 11 nationally in NYT/CBS poll.
- (CBS) With less than one week until Election Day, Barack Obama maintains a clear lead over John McCain in the presidential race, a new CBS News/New York Times poll suggests. The Democratic nominee now leads his Republican rival by 11 percentage points, 52 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters nationwide.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
And this time I mean it. Really nobody could have predicted that a Republican candidate for president would try to win by tying himself to Hillary Clinton.
Strange days have arrived.
Strange days have arrived.
The Fishtown Effect
What it's like in one Philly neighborhood.
After a year of speculation as to whether voters were prejudiced, in the last few weeks — since the campaigns zeroed in on white, blue-collar communities in Pennsylvania, really — people making casual, overtly racist statements suddenly started getting quoted in the papers.
Fishtown, as the anonymous canvasser observed, was sometimes a graphic example.
What he found even more surprising, though, was that these same people were considering voting for Obama.
For the past couple of weeks, I've been talking to people in Fishtown, and I've found much the same thing. Obama's skin color is a problem for many white voters in Philly — but with the economy in ruins, they're turning to Obama anyway. Call it the Fishtown Effect.
In Which Michael Goldfarb Has A Bad Day
Though Sanchez shouldn't have internalized the premise of Khalidi being anti-Semitic. Just because the McCain campaign says something doesn't make it so.
Actually A Good Point
Senator Clinton's transformation from liberal boogeyman to conservative Dem icon is pretty fascinating.
Hey, Kids, Get Off My Lawn
Lovely attitude that campaign has.
Audience members escorted out of Sen. John McCain’s, R-Ariz., campaign event in Cedar Falls questioned why they were asked to leave Sunday’s rally even though they were not protesting.
David Zarifis, director of public safety for the University of Northern Iowa, said McCain staffers requested UNI police assist in escorting out “about four or five” people from the rally prior to McCain’s speech.
...
“When I started talking to them, it kind of became clear that they were kind of just telling people to leave that they thought maybe would be disruptive, but based on what? Based on how they looked,” Elborno said. “It was pretty much all young people, the college demographic.”
Elborno said even McCain supporters were among those being asked to leave.
“I saw a couple that had been escorted out and they were confused as well, and the girl was crying, so I said ‘Why are you crying? and she said ‘I already voted for McCain, I’m a Republican, and they said we had to leave because we didn’t look right,’” Elborno said. “They were handpicking these people and they had nothing to go off of, besides the way the people looked.”
Do They Really?
I suppose this is falls under the perpetual "are they stupid or lying" mystery. Do that many Texans really believe Obama is a Muslim, or are they just trained enough to know they're supposed to say he is.
This mystery will never be solved.
This mystery will never be solved.
And Elsewhere In The World
Bad things still happen.
Hopefully there's someone around to tell President McCain who the villain is. Probably it's Russia.
NEW DELHI — A series of apparently synchronized explosions tore through four towns in the troubled state of Assam in northeastern India on Thursday, killing at least 67 people and leaving more than 210 wounded, according to witnesses and police.
Hopefully there's someone around to tell President McCain who the villain is. Probably it's Russia.
Rashid Khalidi
If I were this guy I'd be calling my lawyer and filing a defamation suit against McCain.
The SUPERTRAIN Advantage
The market has spoken.
Margarete Humphrey knows her bungalow near the Louisiana Station light-rail stop is in a hot neighborhood. But she was surprised to learn the value of her home has increased over the past two years as much of the metro Denver housing market has declined.
Homes near light-rail stations along the southeast line, which opened in November 2006, have increased by an average of nearly 4 percent over the past two years, according to an analysis by Your Castle Real Estate. But the rest of the Denver market declined an average of 7.5 percent.
...
The closer a home is to the station, the more its value increases, according to the Your Castle analysis. Homes less than a half-mile from a station increased an average of 17.6 percent, while those 1 1/2 to 2 miles away increased just 0.1 percent on average. The data varied widely among stations, however.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
479K new lucky duckies!
And we're shrinking.
And we're shrinking.
Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.3 percent annual pace, less than forecast, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. The last major economic data before the election also showed that a record two-decade consumer spending boom ended last quarter as the credit crunch deepened.
...
Consumer spending dropped at a 3.1 percent annual pace, the first decline since 1991 and the biggest since 1980, after President Jimmy Carter imposed credit controls. The median forecast was for a 2.4 percent drop.
Get Them In A Room And Tell Them To Cut The Crap
That's pretty much his plan for everything.
As Digby said, John McCain is the man George Bush has long tried to pretend to be.
As Digby said, John McCain is the man George Bush has long tried to pretend to be.
Morning Thread
I guess when your local sporting team is successful in their athletic competition, you sleep in.
--Molly Ivors
--Molly Ivors
Morning Thread
I hope, when the next president reviews the federal budget line by line, he will consider ending the feet inspection program. No footbombs found yet.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
We Win
Apparently my local sports franchise has won a championship. As is the custom, I shall raise a glass of port in their honor and then go light some cars on fire.
South Broad Street is already full of people down to Pine St. or so. Don't plan to drive there.
...uh-oh, hearing car alarms.
...moving truck down.
...CBS news truck almost tipped. Cops intervene just in time.
South Broad Street is already full of people down to Pine St. or so. Don't plan to drive there.
...uh-oh, hearing car alarms.
...moving truck down.
...CBS news truck almost tipped. Cops intervene just in time.
Rogue
Funny.
Wolf Blitzer: And this just coming into the "Situation Room," the Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin now speaking out openly about her intentions in 2012 if, if she and John McCain were to lose this contest next Tuesday. In an interview with ABC News, Sarah Palin is now saying, she would be interested in remaining a serious national political figure, going ahead to 2012. She was asked what happens in 2012 if you lose on Tuesday, would you simply go back to Alaska? Elizabeth Vargas of ABC News asked her and Palin said this, and I will read it to you verbatim according to an ABC News transcript: "Absolutely not," Sarah Palin says. "I think that, if I were to give up and wave a white flag of surrender against some of the political shots that we've taken, that ... that would ... bring this whole ... I'm not doin' this for naught," and that is a direct quote from Sarah Palin. Clearly, leaving open the possibility that she would be interested in leading the Republican Party in 2012 if she and John McCain were to lose this presidential contest right now. Let's go to Dana Bash. She has been covering the McCain campaign reaction from the rather blunt statement from Sarah Palin that she would in fact be interested in leading the Republican Party going forward after Tuesday if they lose?
Dana Bash: I just got off of the phone, Wolf, with a senior McCain adviser and I read this person the quote and I think it is fair to say that this person was speechless. There was a long pause and I just heard a "huh" on the other end of the phone. This is certainly not a surprise to anybody who has watched Sarah Palin that she is interested in potentially future national runs, and she is being urged to by a lot of people inside of the Republican Party if they do lose, but it is an "if" and people inside of the McCain campaign do not want any discussion that has an "if" in front of it six days before the election, they don't want any discussion at all, any kind of hypothetical talk about running for the next time around. So certainly, this is not at least initially being received well inside of the McCain campaign.
Wolf Blitzer: I am not surprised, not surprised at all. It is one of those "wow, she is talking about 2012 if we lose," that is not supposed to be something that you say. You are supposed to say, "well, I'm not looking ahead, I'm not looking ahead only to Tuesday," and those are the talking points she's supposed to be saying, but she is obviously blunt and she is looking ahead if something were to happen on Tuesday that she wouldn't be happy with.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
That if you put some actual liberals in the liberal media people might watch.
Planning You Election Night
Assuming nothing completely wacky happens, we'll know a lot early.
Virginia closes at 7.
Ohio closes at 7:30.
Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania close at 8.
Colorado and New Mexico at 9.
All times Eastern.
Virginia closes at 7.
Ohio closes at 7:30.
Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania close at 8.
Colorado and New Mexico at 9.
All times Eastern.
HULK SMASHED
Poor Ted.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is calling on Ted Stevens to resign from the Senate – and warning that the longest-serving Republican senator in history will face certain expulsion if he doesn’t leave on his own first.
Even More Polls
Because there's only 6 days left.
Time for my election prediction, because I can't be a real pundit otherwise.
Obama gets Kerry states+Virgina+Colorado+New Mexico+Iowa for the win.
...oops, commenters remind me, Don't Forget Iowa! I did forget. Obama gets that too.
Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47
Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44
Time for my election prediction, because I can't be a real pundit otherwise.
Obama gets Kerry states+Virgina+Colorado+New Mexico+Iowa for the win.
...oops, commenters remind me, Don't Forget Iowa! I did forget. Obama gets that too.
Wingnuttery
Michael Barone spends a lot of time trying to explain why Barack Obama might win a state that has gone for the Democrat in the last 5 elections. Not quite sure why this needs an elaborate explanation. It's a Dem-leaning state and Obama is doing much better nationally so this really shouldn't be much of a surprise. His theory is that relatively well off people in suburban Philadelphia counties have lost a bunch of money in their houses (even though the housing bubble really didn't hit here) and 401Ks. His concluding sentence is hilarious, given his theory:
In other words, they're going to vote for Obama because George Bush destroyed all their wealth but this is ironic because Obama's going to destroy their wealth. Or something.
I understand Barone was once sane.
The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.
In other words, they're going to vote for Obama because George Bush destroyed all their wealth but this is ironic because Obama's going to destroy their wealth. Or something.
I understand Barone was once sane.
Socially Liberal
Adding to what Amanda says, while I agree that the journalist class tends to be "socially liberal" in that they understand that women work and have sex and gay people exist, their social liberalism doesn't really extend to policy much. I think they understand that racism exists, but are skeptical of affirmative action or any other policies to try to deal with the problem. Likewise they understand that poverty is a problem, but aren't really supportive of government efforts to do anything about it.
So, yes, I believe that the Beltway journalist class tells the truth about themselves when they say they're "socially liberal." But it isn't a liberalism which extends to actual policy in any concrete fashion, so it's sorta meaningless.
So, yes, I believe that the Beltway journalist class tells the truth about themselves when they say they're "socially liberal." But it isn't a liberalism which extends to actual policy in any concrete fashion, so it's sorta meaningless.
Poll Porn
Quinnipiac:
* Florida: Obama 47 to McCain's 45 percent, compared to 49 - 44 percent October 23;
* Ohio: Obama up 51 - 42 percent, compared to 52 - 38 percent;
* Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 53 - 41 percent, compared to 53 - 40 percent last time.
Gibberish
I know conservatives have long managed to run against government while still suggesting that the parts of government people like would remain. But those people were kinda good at it. I've seen McCain attack Obama for being a "wealth spreader" for refundable tax credits, and then turn around and attack him for leaving out unemployed people. Now, after this whole socialist tear, he's extolling the joys of social safety nets.
Morning Thread
by Molly Ivors
I for one will be glad when the American Enterprise Institute has to sell candy bars to pay their internet bill.
I for one will be glad when the American Enterprise Institute has to sell candy bars to pay their internet bill.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
From The Left
Obama's going on Maddow on Thursday. I think this is a good thing, and not just for the obvious reasons. A consequence of the fact that our media ranges from the New Republic to the Free Republic is that Democratic politicians, except those who venture onto Democracy Now, almost never get challenged from the left.
And A Million Tiny Violins Began To Play
Poor poor Republican staffers. Soon there will be no work for them at all.
Poll Porn
LAT/Bloomberg:
n Ohio, a state that has been battered for years by unemployment and plant closings, Obama is leading McCain 49% to 40% among people likely to vote.
In Florida, a state that was considered a likely win for Republicans not long ago, McCain is trailing, 50% to 43%.
Poll Porn
Kissell beating Robin Hayes.
North Carolina Congressman Robin Hayes, reeling from recent remarks about "Liberals hating real Americans," has lost his lead in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District race.
Hayes trails Democrat Larry Kissell 51-46 in a poll released Tuesday by Raleigh's Public Policy Polling. In its last NC-8 poll in August, PPP had the incumbent Hayes leading by five points.
Bandwagon
I don't know if there's a late break yet or if the polls are holding steady, but I bet if Obama holds his lead through the weekend that a late break will happen. People like voting for the winner.
Republican Does The Right Thing?
Or at least seems to be doing it, anyway. It's so rare it's worth highlighting.
Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday extended early voting hours across Florida to 12 hours a day.
The executive order comes after record early voting turnout has contributed to long lines at polling sites.
Current Florida law allows for early voting to be conducted eight hours a day each weekday and for a total of eight hours during the weekends.
SUPERTRAINS TO EVERYWHERE
Having said that, 400 miles or so is probably about the upper limit on the distance at which high speed rail makes obvious sense. Not that longer journeys would never happen, but the relative benefits of air travel start to become greater.
Fortunately, lots of places are within 400 miles of each other! Los Angeles to Las Vegas. Las Vegas to Phoenix. Phoenix to Albuquerque. Albuquerque to Denver.
Anyway, not saying all of these routes would be high priority ones, just that there are a lot of population centers that are in the sweet spot distance wise. When I am your benevolent dictator, priority will be given to linking places with decent mass transit systems. Of course, in my benevolent goodness, I'll also be building decent mass transit systems everywhere whether you like it or not. Because I know best.
Fortunately, lots of places are within 400 miles of each other! Los Angeles to Las Vegas. Las Vegas to Phoenix. Phoenix to Albuquerque. Albuquerque to Denver.
Anyway, not saying all of these routes would be high priority ones, just that there are a lot of population centers that are in the sweet spot distance wise. When I am your benevolent dictator, priority will be given to linking places with decent mass transit systems. Of course, in my benevolent goodness, I'll also be building decent mass transit systems everywhere whether you like it or not. Because I know best.
HSR
Building on the prior travel time discussion, the distance between Barcelona and Madrid is basically identical to the distance between San Francisco and Los Angeles. Travel time on the new AVE line nonstop trains is 2:38. Travel time on trains which make local stops is 3:23. Various places on the internets suggest that the train has taken about 25% of airline passengers since it opened.
Add in obvious points that this is center city to center city to travel, don't have the big security hassle, etc..
Add in obvious points that this is center city to center city to travel, don't have the big security hassle, etc..
McCain Campaign Admits Health Care Plan Sucks
Funny:
So, the plan is to increase taxes on people with decent health care plans and provide a tax credit for people to buy shitty ones.
That's some wealth spreading we can believe in, my friends!
Changing the tax treatment wouldn't hurt the employer-sponsored system and would allow more of the uninsured to buy their own coverage, [the McCain campaign says]. Also, his advisers say a McCain administration would keep an eye on the credit to make sure it didn't lag behind the cost of coverage, while also working to lower the rate of medical inflation.
Younger, healthier workers likely wouldn't abandon their company-sponsored plans, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, McCain's senior economic policy adviser.
"Why would they leave?" said Holtz-Eakin. "What they are getting from their employer is way better than what they could get with the credit."
So, the plan is to increase taxes on people with decent health care plans and provide a tax credit for people to buy shitty ones.
That's some wealth spreading we can believe in, my friends!
Enjoy The Fight
I think Beltway people on both sides are surprisingly bad at, well, politics. They tend to view things through the concept of the political spectrum as dictated by the Villagers, unaware that people in the rest of the country, aside perhaps from political junkies, don't really see things that way. It isn't actually Cokie Roberts' world.
Back in the days when Democrats were DOOOOOMED to be out of power for 3000 years, or whatever, the basic liberal blog critique of Democratic politics wasn't that Democrats needed to move sharply to the left, though on some issues they should somewhat, both on the politics and the merits. The basic critique was that they needed to distinguish themselves from Republicans. "Not as evil as them" just wasn't quite compelling enough. Highlight the differences, rather than blurring them. Don't run from issues like abortion because voters already "know" you're the babykiller who's going to make everybody gay marry. Lead by showing leadership. Stop running against the party. Improve the brand.
Bush and this bunch of Republicans have completely fucked the Republican brand. Social conservatism (ban abortion and contraception, stone gay people) just isn't popular enough nationally, and they've (for a second time) destroyed the idea of Republicans as "fiscal conservatives."
Conservatism will be alive and well in the next Congress, as the blue dogs will find common cause with Republicans trying to resuscitate their brand and thwart an Obama administration. Wars and bailouts of rich people will still be free, of course, but money for sick kids will be "fiscally irresponsible." Our best hope is that Republicans fight to out-crazy each other enough to tarnish themselves enough that even the blue dogs might not want to get near them.
Back in the days when Democrats were DOOOOOMED to be out of power for 3000 years, or whatever, the basic liberal blog critique of Democratic politics wasn't that Democrats needed to move sharply to the left, though on some issues they should somewhat, both on the politics and the merits. The basic critique was that they needed to distinguish themselves from Republicans. "Not as evil as them" just wasn't quite compelling enough. Highlight the differences, rather than blurring them. Don't run from issues like abortion because voters already "know" you're the babykiller who's going to make everybody gay marry. Lead by showing leadership. Stop running against the party. Improve the brand.
Bush and this bunch of Republicans have completely fucked the Republican brand. Social conservatism (ban abortion and contraception, stone gay people) just isn't popular enough nationally, and they've (for a second time) destroyed the idea of Republicans as "fiscal conservatives."
Conservatism will be alive and well in the next Congress, as the blue dogs will find common cause with Republicans trying to resuscitate their brand and thwart an Obama administration. Wars and bailouts of rich people will still be free, of course, but money for sick kids will be "fiscally irresponsible." Our best hope is that Republicans fight to out-crazy each other enough to tarnish themselves enough that even the blue dogs might not want to get near them.
Doesn't Know Anything About Anything
I've long been aware that you can be a sitting US Senator and be a bit of an idiot. But even the idiots seem to have some basic grasp of the contours of the debate over various policies. I really don't know how you can be in the Senate for as long as McCain has, subjected to repeated exposure to this stuff, and be so completely clueless about everything.
It's Not About You
I get that reporters are human and that they're capable of being charmed be a skilled politician. And skilled politicians are supposed to be good at charming people. But what I don't get is this idea that this political campaign has anything to do with them. It's not about you and your widdle feelings.
Knives
Perhaps you should've figured that out earlier?
***In convo with Playbook, a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”
Morning Thread
Pallin' around with felons, circa October 2006:
Heh, indeed.
Palin: I have great respect for the senator…. His voice, his experience, his passion needs to be heard across America...There’s a big difference between reality and perception regarding our relationship.
Heh, indeed.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Nobody Could've Predicted
That if you put someone on the teevee who reflected the views of the sizable chunk of the country they would have a big audience.
All that ad money lost because you didn't listen to my advice to provide companion programming for K.O.
Brian Williams couldn't do it. Neither could Joe Scarborough, Rita Cosby, Dan Abrams, Ashleigh Banfield, Deborah Norville or Alan Keyes.
But MSNBC's new 9pmET show did. The Rachel Maddow show topped CNN's Larry King Live in the ad-friendly A25-54 demo during the month of October. King still wins the Total Viewer crown and FNC's Hannity & Colmes is #1 in both measurements.
All that ad money lost because you didn't listen to my advice to provide companion programming for K.O.
Oh Well. Nice Try.
SMASHED.
National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) offered a strong condemnation of Stevens and seemed to hint that this conviction would lead to his defeat.
"This is a sad day for the United States Senate," said Ensign. "Ted Stevens served his constituents for over 40 years and I am disappointed to see his career end in disgrace."
Stand With Ted
Please, Senate colleagues, stand with him!
I am obviously disappointed in the verdict but not surprised given the repeated instances of prosecutorial misconduct in this case. The prosecutors had to report themselves to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility during the trial for ethical violations. Exculpatory evidence was hidden from my lawyers. A witness was kept from us and then sent back to Alaska. The Government lawyers allowed evidence to be introduced that they knew was false. I will fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have.
I am innocent. This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate.
California HSR
I'll go a bit further and say that anything under a 5 hour trip from SF to LA would be competitive with air travel. It wouldn't be super awesome at that speed, and it wouldn't destroy air travel between the two cities, but it would certainly be competitive at a reasonable price.
Flexible
Kudos to my local transit authority for having the sense to run late night trains for people attending the baseball games.
More regular later night service would be nice, too, though of course the unpredictability of baseball game ending times makes added flexibility necessary.
SEPTA will also provide extra late-night Regional Rail train service following the conclusion of tonight's World Series game. The extra late-night service back home will operate on SEPTA routes, with the exception of R1 Airport, R2 Wilmington and R6 Cynwyd, and depart Suburban Station approximately one hour following the last pitch. R8 Chestnut Hill West passengers should board R7 Chestnut Hill East train service. Extra Market-Frankford Line service will also be in operation for fans who wish to make connections with the Broad Street Line.
More regular later night service would be nice, too, though of course the unpredictability of baseball game ending times makes added flexibility necessary.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEE
Worst. Preznit. Ever.
Still, dissatisfaction with the Bush administration and despondency over the direction the country is headed seems to be the biggest factor driving McCain's poor showing in the poll. Only 23 percent of voters now say they approve of the job that George W. Bush is doing as president, a new low for any president in the NEWSWEEK Poll.
Wealth Spreader
It takes a long time to build up words and phrases which have commonly understood meanings and appropriate negative connotations. You can't just make them up 2 weeks before an election. Most voters are going to hear "wealth spreader" and think... sounds good to me! Spread some all over me, please.
Doesn't Feel The Same This Year
If, 4 years ago, polling looked like it does today (it didn't), I would've spent the week before the election fretting about some last minute external event or revelation which would suddenly cause voters to change their minds in large numbers. Certainly something like that is possible, but it just seems less likely. I'm not quite sure why. Maybe it's because the McCain campaign seems to not know how to exploit such things. Maybe it's because of more early voting (or my being more aware of the extent of early voting). Maybe it's just a bit harder, relative to then, to seize on one thing and have it drive the conversation for a week. Or maybe I'm wrong!
Perhaps The Stupidest Paragraph Ever Written
Jeebus.
The most important function of a vice president is to serve as a spare president. Using the spare president in the ordinary course of business is as unwise as driving on one's spare tire. Spares should be kept pristine, for when they are really needed.
Tightening
It has been weird watching the degree to watch some will go to pretend this race is getting closer. Most things in campaign reporting aren't quantifiable, but polls are.
Young Eagles
That is funny. Also, 45 is a bit old to be "young." And before you cranky oldsters start shouting at me, so is 36.
Jack In 08
Just saw a commercial for a Republican running for state Senate against the guy who I thought won that race last year and so I got a bit confused. Stupid me. The guy who "won" just won the Democratic primary in the Spring and therefore is going to win the general election without really needing to campaign.
But the more important point is that I probably haven't read 3 words about this race or really any of the local races in the local papers. They barely even cover congressional races. I don't know if the "local papers that actually cover local news" business model is a viable one, but it isn't clear that "local papers that don't cover much local news" is either.
But the more important point is that I probably haven't read 3 words about this race or really any of the local races in the local papers. They barely even cover congressional races. I don't know if the "local papers that actually cover local news" business model is a viable one, but it isn't clear that "local papers that don't cover much local news" is either.
8 Days
Be prepared for the final onslaught of the really stupid, when the media feels the need to balance reality with whatever horseshit the McCain/Drudge are spewing that day.
I recommend a locked windowless room with a vat of vodka. I'd take that advice except I must write this sucky blog for you, dear readers.
I recommend a locked windowless room with a vat of vodka. I'd take that advice except I must write this sucky blog for you, dear readers.
Blah Blah Blah
Conservatives really don't want nuclear plants polluting their local environment or melting down, they just know that mocking such concerns pisses off liberals. It's all they've got left.
Morning Thread
Financial Times, rejects incompetence, endorses Obama.
Nonetheless, a campaign is a test of leadership. Mr Obama ran his superbly; Mr McCain’s has often looked a shambles. After eight years of George W. Bush, the steady competence of the Obama operation commands respect.
In the news pages, they've been pretty much okay with Teh Socialism.
Poll Porn
O up by 8 in VA.
Barack Obama has opened up an eight-point lead over Republican John McCain in Virginia, and the Democrat is entering the final week of the campaign with several core advantages when it comes to turning out his supporters, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
100K
One of the standard assumptions built into a lot of campaign reporting is that most people just aren't that interested in politics. I think this is in part due to the fetishization of the undecided voter which basically allows them to ignore all of those nasty partisans who actually care about politics enough to understand the differences between the candidates.
Not everyone who is reasonably interested politics is a political junkie, and nor is there any reason for them to be. But I think Obama's proven that plenty of people do actually have some interest in it.
Not everyone who is reasonably interested politics is a political junkie, and nor is there any reason for them to be. But I think Obama's proven that plenty of people do actually have some interest in it.
A Really Bad Campaign
I actually don't agree that McCain is somehow largely just a victim of circumstances. Leaving aside very recent history, he chose to be a Bush loving conservative instead of Mr. Bipartisan McMaverick or otherwise running against Bush. By Fall of 2005, it didn't take a genius to see that people were really getting a bit fed up with this bunch of clowns. If it wasn't clear then, it became clear in the November '06 election. If it wasn't clear then, it became clear after Bush was sub-40 in the polls for like 3000 months straight. Yes I know that McCain had to win the Republican primary, but even after that he didn't make much effort to pivot. And by that time even Republicans were beginning to hate Bush!
Holocaust
Even though it seems like just about anyone can be the new Hitler these days, I really don't think this will be especially effective.
PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Pennsylvania Republicans are disavowing an e-mail sent to Jewish voters that likens a vote for Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to events that led up to the Holocaust.
"Jewish Americans cannot afford to make the wrong decision on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008," the e-mail reads. "Many of our ancestors ignored the warning signs in the 1930s and 1940s and made a tragic mistake. Let's not make a similar one this year!"
A copy of the e-mail, provided by Democratic officials, says it was "Paid for by the Republican Federal Committee of PA - Victory 2008."
Joe's Gamble
Suck it up. You made the wrong one.
Democrats had better consider the consequences of leaving him in charge of his committee, a job he might suddenly find fun again in 2009.
Democrats had better consider the consequences of leaving him in charge of his committee, a job he might suddenly find fun again in 2009.
Faceless
Oh noes! Small donors are threatening the fabric of democracy!
Is there any right wing blogger horseshit the Washington Post won't beg to eat? Nope!
Of course, that those people were, you know, knowing breaking the law doesn't actually make it into the article. And it doesn't even occur to the reporter that there actually are probably some poor souls in the US named "Saddam Hussein."
Sen. Barack Obama's record-breaking $150 million fundraising performance in September has for the first time prompted questions about whether presidential candidates should be permitted to collect huge sums of money through faceless credit card transactions over the Internet.
Is there any right wing blogger horseshit the Washington Post won't beg to eat? Nope!
- Concerns about anonymous donations seeping into the campaign began to surface last month, mainly on conservative blogs. Some bloggers described their own attempts to display the flaws in Obama's fundraising program, donating under such obviously phony names as Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, and reported that the credit card transactions were permitted.
Of course, that those people were, you know, knowing breaking the law doesn't actually make it into the article. And it doesn't even occur to the reporter that there actually are probably some poor souls in the US named "Saddam Hussein."
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
- Guest lineup for the Sunday TV news shows: ___ ABC's "This Week" — Jack Welch, former chief executive of General Electric Co.; Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill. ___ CBS' "Face the Nation" — Robert Rubin, former Treasury secretary and adviser to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.; Doug Holtz-Eakin, adviser to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.; Govs. Ed Rendell, D-Pa., and Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn. ___ NBC's "Meet the Press" — McCain. ___ CNN's "Late Edition" — Sens. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., and Jon Kyl, R-Ariz.; Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, D-Fla., and Heather Wilson, R-N.M. "Fox News Sunday" _ Gov. Tim Kaine, D-Va.; former Gov. Tom Ridge, R-Pa.
Good morning
Just in case you were having any nostalgia for sensible conservatism:
Not Atrios
But we are all smart people here, so I think we can take my point already, which is that into this decidedly conservative (by any rational measure you can name) American political environment came one William F. Buckley, to whine that it’s so hard being a conservative, it’s so lonely being a conservative, everyone is so impatient with conservatives, why can’t standing athwart history yelling Stop be an actual political philosophy instead of a mere child’s tantrum - and oh, p.s., which one of you nonwhite nonmales MOVED MY CHEESE?Signed,[...]
I am telling you, leftybeans, you have all had amnesia. Every single piece of drivel you find in The Corner, every lulzy post at Bacon o’Playdough, every Goldsteinian meltdown and Instapunditious I-just-link, I-don’t-endorse oily oozy blob of propaganda, every Confederate Yankee conspiracy theory, every Patterician investigation of IP addresses and other ridiculous internet minutiae, springs from this half-a-century-ago source.
Not Atrios
2-1
It seems my local franchise has won their professional sporting competition.
It seems I will attend tomorrow's competition.
It seems I will attend tomorrow's competition.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Still Not Driving
Interesting that people are still driving fewer miles even though gas has come back down. Economy, new habits, what?
I think a little bit is probably that there's been a small cultural shift, with mass transit now being seen as a little bit more desirable and cool than it once was.
I think a little bit is probably that there's been a small cultural shift, with mass transit now being seen as a little bit more desirable and cool than it once was.
Less Government Regulation
McCain is actually probably right that many small businesses (actual small businesses, not the Republican "everything under a billion market cap" version) face too much regulation. But the federal government doesn't really have anything to do with it, so...
Diva
This is fun.
“She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone,” said this McCain adviser, “she does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: divas trust only unto themselves as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom.”
Vote
While I guess people reading this blog know this, it is important to, you know, actually go out and vote on election day. I tend to think people on the teevee overestimate how big an impact calling races early can have on people voting on the West Coast, but just in case... vote!
God Doesn't Like Me This Much
Drum:
And you know the part I'm really looking forward to? Sarah Palin's role in all this. I expect her to rip McCain absolutely to shreds. On background, of course, but it will be no less vicious for that. Her future, such as it is, lies with the wingnut rump of the party, and she knows what her audience wants: John McCain's blood. And lots of it. They never liked him in the first place, and I expect them to be howling for his head on a platter starting at about 8:01 pm EST on November 4th.
Palin Curse
Oops:
ST. LOUIS (AP)—Blues goalie Manny Legace left after one period Friday night with a hip injury that occurred when he slipped on the carpet placed on the ice for Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.
Palin 2012
I think I have yet to express an opinion on that subject. I'm sure some conservatives will become her patrons and trot her out at various events... but, otherwise, it's obscurity.
Poll Porn
My friends, Colorado hates America.
Sen. Barack Obama has surged to a commanding, double-digit lead in Colorado amid soaring anxiety about the country's direction and a massive shift of independent voters into the Democratic column, a new poll finds.
After weeks of devastating economic news, Obama now leads by 12 percentage points - 52 percent to 40 percent - in the latest Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 News poll.
Friday, October 24, 2008
TIME's Blog Managers
If you want, you can see what they've got up now, after a day of "scheduled maintenance."
This stuff happens, of course.
That's Honor We Can Believe in, My Friends
McCain campaign pushed story.
John McCain's Pennsylvania communications director told reporters in the state an incendiary version of the hoax story about the attack on a McCain volunteer well before the facts of the case were known or established -- and even told reporters outright that the "B" carved into the victim's cheek stood for "Barack," according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions.
John Verrilli, the news director for KDKA in Pittsburgh, told TPM Election Central that McCain's Pennsylvania campaign communications director gave one of his reporters a detailed version of the attack that included a claim that the alleged attacker said, "You're with the McCain campaign? I'm going to teach you a lesson."
We're All National News Now
While I certainly don't have much sympathy for Ashley Todd, I do think that in a sensible news world her story would not have ever been a national one, covered by cable news networks and other outlets.
This became national news because it was pushed by Drudge and then seized upon by the McCain campaign (or perhaps in the other order). While news outlets should be able to avoid Drudge's mind control powers, perhaps once a campaign makes a big deal out of something it can't be ignored. Still, as a general issue, there are lots of "small" stories which become "big" and make people into national figures temporarily and that's kind of a shame. Personally I try to not contribute to that, though I of course do at times.
"She just opened up and said she wanted to tell the truth," Bryant said, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. "She was upset with the media for blowing this into a political firestorm."
This became national news because it was pushed by Drudge and then seized upon by the McCain campaign (or perhaps in the other order). While news outlets should be able to avoid Drudge's mind control powers, perhaps once a campaign makes a big deal out of something it can't be ignored. Still, as a general issue, there are lots of "small" stories which become "big" and make people into national figures temporarily and that's kind of a shame. Personally I try to not contribute to that, though I of course do at times.
Kudos to Rick Sanchez
Reporting on the attack hoax he actually introduced the notion of media culpability in reporting this stuff.
Though why he's going to bring Neal Boortz on to explain it all to us I'm not sure.
Though why he's going to bring Neal Boortz on to explain it all to us I'm not sure.
Stoking Racial Fears
I didn't post anything about that story publicly because I don't really like jumping on stories about people who aren't really public figures and maybe don't quite have sense enough to understand what can happen when they thrust themselves into the spotlight. And, also, doubting the claims of alleged victims of violence is generally problematic. But, that picture... uh, whatever.
But aside from the obvious ways that this was not an especially nice thing for this woman to do on the politics side, it's also really assholeish to make up stories about a young white woman being attacked and sexually assaulted by a black man.
But aside from the obvious ways that this was not an especially nice thing for this woman to do on the politics side, it's also really assholeish to make up stories about a young white woman being attacked and sexually assaulted by a black man.
College Republicans
KDKA:
A Pittsburgh police commander says a volunteer for the McCain campaign who reported being robbed and attacked near a bank ATM in Bloomfield has confessed to making up the story. Police say charges will be filed. More details to follow.
The Dreams of David Broder
From about a year ago.
The day had been full of ominous warnings. Polls showed the Republicans on the losing side of almost every issue and the 2008 presidential race -- and now they're forced to defend a controversial veto of a popular children's health bill.
But Tom Cole, the 58-year-old Oklahoma representative who this year took on the responsibility for running the GOP's congressional campaign, was remarkably sanguine -- considering.
...
That may seem implausible, but Cole has history on his side. In 1992, as he notes, incumbents were hammered, 24 of them losing in November, 17 others failing in their primaries. The Republicans achieved a net gain of 10 House seats that year, a feather in the cap of the executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee, Tom Cole. Now, no longer a hired staff man but the chairman, Cole faces a familiar challenge. In 1992, the Democrats nominated Bill Clinton for president -- and he won. But his party, nonetheless, lost House seats. Cole is out to make history repeat itself.
Deep Thought
Is Barack Obama planning to kill his grandmother for the sympathy vote, or because she knows the truth about his birthplace?
So Weird
After spending days attacking Obama for his "welfare" tax plan over refundable tax credits, McCain's now attacking him for leaving out the unemployed.
Thanks, Rahm!
Heckuva job.
But a document obtained by ABC News reveals new allegations of threatening behavior and sexual harassment toward a female staffer, that go far beyond Mahoney's public confession, including claims that he urged one of his mistresses to serve as a "tease" for big donors.
The former Congressional staff member, Patricia Allen, was paid $121,000 by Mahoney after she was fired and threatened to sue.
Click here to hear the tape of Mahoney firing Allen.
The settlement was reached after Allen hired a lawyer who sent the Congressman a "demand" letter, listing specific examples of Mahoney's alleged "gross misconduct" and "stalking" including:
"a) Calling Allen late in the evenings and demanding "phone sex;"
b) Demanding that Allen answer his calls or face termination;
c) Demanding that Allen attend fundraisers and "tease c-ck" to bring in more donations from the male members of the public;
d) Demanding that Allen engage in sexual conduct with another woman for his enjoyment."
Current and former staffers told ABC News the allegations contained in the "demand letter" sent to Mahoney were backed up by tape recordings of phone calls between the Congressman and Allen.
Poll Porn
Don't believe it, but it's fun anyway. Georgia:
Presidential
Obama, 48 percent
McCain, 47 percent
Other, 2 percent
Undecided, 3 percent
U.S. Senate
Chambliss, 44 percent
Martin, 42 percent
Buckley, 2 percent
Undecided, 12 percent
Bonghit Philosophizing
There are a lot of things about our media-political industrial class that I sort of understand, but the enduring presence of Gregg Easterbrook is not one of them.
Spreading The Wealth Around
Sarah Palin's on my teevee boasting that Alaska is going to be increasing funding for special needs children by zillions of dollars.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Dow futures down so much that they tripped circuit breaker preventing any selling at lower prices.
Morning Thread
In retrospect, I'm not sure I've spent $150,000 on clothes in my entire life. And I own regalia!
--Molly Ivors
--Molly Ivors
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Even More Poll Porn
CBS/NYT:
(CBS) With just twelve days left until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama holds a 13-point lead over Republican rival John McCain, a new CBS News/New York Times poll shows.
Obama now leads McCain 52 percent to 39 percent among likely voters nationwide, roughly the same lead he held last week. Just five percent are undecided, and more than 9 in 10 of each candidate’s supporters say their mind is made up.
That's Mavericky
A few people sent this to me. It's just weird.
Republican John McCain is not going to make his election night remarks in the traditional style — at a podium standing in front of a sea of campaign workers jammed into a hotel ballroom.
Oh, the throng of supporters will hold the usual election night party at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix on the evening of Nov. 4.
But the Republican presidential nominee plans to address another group of supporters and a small group of reporters on the hotel lawn; his remarks will be simultaneously piped electronically to the party inside and other reporters in a media filing center, aides said.
You Can't Fake It, My Friend
Even aside from the obvious facts of his life, McCain just can't pull of the Nixon elite resentment thing because he doesn't understand it. He is an elite, always has been, and more than that has always felt like one.
All Over Except For That Voting Part
I feel like we've entered the unnecessary sequel phase of the campaign. 12 days...
Slander
If I were to call Newt Gingrich a syphilitic goatfucker he might have cause to sue, but I think SNL is ok.
Red Massacusetts
I'd be quite surprised if Barack Obama won Illinois at this point. Massachusetts isn't even a possibility.
It's going to be an epic landslide, my friends, as the country puts country first.
It's going to be an epic landslide, my friends, as the country puts country first.
The Idiots Who Rule Us
In case you were wondering about the ill effects of nepotism.
That's New York Times editorial page editor Andrew Rosenthal, son of Abe "Out Of My Mind" Rosenthal.
Of actual journalists, Rosenthal said he admired the work of the Atlantic's Megan McArdle and the National Review's Byron York.
That's New York Times editorial page editor Andrew Rosenthal, son of Abe "Out Of My Mind" Rosenthal.
Joe The Plumber
To provide some clarity to Steve, he's a white guy who's about to have his pocket picked by a black guy.
It doesn't have to be true.
It doesn't have to be true.
Tinklenberg
It seems that every election a couple of unlikely folk heroes emerge. They don't always win, but they somehow capture our hearts and imaginations.
This year it is, of course, El Tinklenberg.
This year it is, of course, El Tinklenberg.
Ground Game
I'm not sure I ever really believed the tales of Rove&Dowd's awesome 2004 ground game, but they thought it was important enough to at least talk about whether or not it actually existed. But more to the point, if they'd really set up such an organization why would it just be abandoned?
That Will Help
John McCain's on my teevee telling me he'll cut the capital gains tax in half.
Uh, yeah, that will help your campaign. I'm gonna vote for the guy who will cut taxes on my housing gains and stock portfolio appreciation. Oh, wait...
Uh, yeah, that will help your campaign. I'm gonna vote for the guy who will cut taxes on my housing gains and stock portfolio appreciation. Oh, wait...
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
BK
Probably just the beginning for restaurant chains.
NEW YORK (AP) — The owner of the Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouse brands said Wednesday it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Metromedia Steakhouses Co. L.P., based in Plano, Texas, said it filed voluntarily under Chapter 11, which allows a company to restructure and stay in operation. The petition was filed in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware on Wednesday.
Maddow Decade
Nobody could've predicted that there'd be an audience for liberal teevee.
Except me, and of course you, dear readers.
Except me, and of course you, dear readers.
Republican Memo Porn
Because it's fun to watch them suffer.
Heckuva job, Karl.
Voter displeasure with the war and economy, coupled with Sen. Barack Obama's popularity, has the House GOP running for cover. Even though polls have shown that Americans don't like congressional Democrats any more, a new internal GOP tally of House races suggests a Democratic route that could keep the Republicans in the minority for decades.
Heckuva job, Karl.
Ten Likely Events In 2008
From the seers at Businessweek:
Bloomberg's Historic Run
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will enter the Presidential race in February, after it becomes clear which nominees will get the nod from the major parties. His multiple billions and organization will impress voters—and stun rivals. He'll look like the most viable third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt. But Bloomberg will come up short, as he comes in for withering attacks from both Democrats and Republicans. He and Clinton will split more than 50% of the votes, but Arizona's maverick senator, John McCain, will end up the country's next President.
In Which Joe Lieberman Wears His Sad Face
Poor Joe. No respect, not even from his BFF.
John McCain called out fellow Republicans who have questioned running mate Sarah Palin’s credentials Tuesday.
“What’s their problem?” McCain asked during an interview with radio host Don Imus.
“She is a governor, the most popular governor in America,” McCain said. “I think she is the most qualified of any that has run recently for vice president.”
pwn3d
John McCain's people are giving a conference call trying to convince reporters that al Qaeda doesn't really want him to be president, and Obama's giving a news conference with a bunch of Very Serious People looking, well, serious.
One Narrative
Indeed that's what the McCain campaign failed to do. What was impressive in 2004 was how the Bush campaign managed to take everything they could come up with and neatly slot it into their basic narrative about Kerry, with press helpers of course. The McCain campaign has just been all over the place, choosing to play to win each news cycle, instead of trying to win the campaign. I think winning the news cycle is important, and in other times it might have worked for them. Don't think it's going to work this time.
The Operation
You hear about GOTV operation, but I guess until details emerge it isn't quite clear that it's really going to make a difference.
And, yes, pity the folks doing this in the burbs. Much easier, much more fun, and many more snacks around in the city.
And, yes, pity the folks doing this in the burbs. Much easier, much more fun, and many more snacks around in the city.
The PA Gamble
Basically, it seems that McCain is screwed if he doesn't win Pennsylvania. But he's not going to win Pennsylvania. Draw whatever conclusions you would like from this.
Primaries
It's 13 days before the election, and apparently I still have to explain to the people whose job it is to cover it that results in party primaries really have little to no predictive power for the results in the general. Yesterday someone was suggesting that Obama would have troubles in PA because he didn't win the primary, and today someone suggested that McCain could do well in NH because he won the primary there.
Are they really this stupid?
Are they really this stupid?
Little Girly Brains
What Rick Davis and Bill Bennett understand, and Matt doesn't, is that women have little girly brains which make them incapable of having substantive views on any issues.
Morning Thread
Remember the good ol' days (of about 8 months ago) when the GOP was outraged over $400 haircuts?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NEY NEY IS FREE
Robert Kennedy, Jr. just told me that my BFF Bob Ney is in prison. Not true. He's been released.
Election Night
Lots of polls close surprisingly early, though I envy you West Coasters for being able to make a really early evening of it. Still, all the real die hards will stay up for the Alaska Senate results. Does hulk get smashed?
Overheard In Philly
Just now in the Italian Market:
I've got a pain in my knee. I've got a pain in my left ball. I've got a pain in my back.
And He's The Conservative!
Sarkozy suggesting a return to the old ways.
I guess the Washington Consensus has been poisoned, shot, stabbed, clubbed, and drowned.
In a speech before the European Parliament on Tuesday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested that European countries establish their own sovereign wealth funds to take ownership stakes in key industries. He went on to suggest that European states should coordinate their industrial policies with each other.
As the financial crisis morphs into a wider economic crisis, Sarkozy stressed the need for European states to sustain their coordinated approach. "The economic crisis is here," said the French president. Although Sarkozy argued strongly for a unified response to the problem, he stressed that this didn't mean that every country needed to pursue the same policy. "We don't all need to do the same thing, but we do need to coordinate amongst ourselves and come to an agreement on certain issues." Sarkozy underlined that it would require concerted action among EU countries to ensure that Europe is a place that continues to build "ships, planes and cars."
In his speech Sarkozy called upon European states to set up sovereign wealth funds to help prop up companies listed on European stock exchanges. Otherwise, he said, there is a danger that tanking stock prices will result in a massive sell-off of European assets to foreigners. "I don't want European citizens to wake up in a few months and discover that European businesses are now owned in capitals outside of Europe." He added that the state funds could later sell their stakes at a profit.
I guess the Washington Consensus has been poisoned, shot, stabbed, clubbed, and drowned.
Pennsylvania
The idea that the McCain campaign is going to make a real effort to beat Obama in this state now is amusing. Or, to put it another way, if McCain does win Pennsylvania than all the polling in this election is completely wrong for whatever reason and McCain's going to win a bunch of other Kerry states too. Pennsylvania was close in '04. Very close. 51-49. But the polls before the election were also close. Very close.
The Pennsylvania polls are now not close at all. Many months ago I thought PA would be hard for Obama. But it turns out I was wrong, probably because I underestimated the number of moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs who will actually vote for a Democrat and overestimated the number of conservatives and old people (this is a very old state) in the 'T' who won't vote for Obama.
The Pennsylvania polls are now not close at all. Many months ago I thought PA would be hard for Obama. But it turns out I was wrong, probably because I underestimated the number of moderate Republicans in the Philly suburbs who will actually vote for a Democrat and overestimated the number of conservatives and old people (this is a very old state) in the 'T' who won't vote for Obama.
Matt Drudge Still Rules Their World
While Boehlert is right that Matt Drudge hasn't been as influential over this election as he has at other times, I don't think it's correct to discount completely his mind control powers over our nation's editors and TV news producers. Those powers still exist, even if he hasn't been using them very effectively recently. Drudge is good at what he does, but he's in part only as good as the stuff they feed him.
Campbell Brown
I have to say that I've been pleasantly surprised when I've seen Campbell Brown on the teevee. Not because, as the McCain campaign wants you to believe, she displays some evil liberal bias, but because she has a pretty good bullshit detector and seems to live in the reality based community.
Surprised, I must admit, because of this.
Surprised, I must admit, because of this.
Maddow Decade
The nice thing about this NYT article on Maddow is that it actually avoids the usual Howie Kurtzesque fretting about the problem of that dastardly liberal media actually having a liberal on the teevee.
Anecdote
Despite chatter about McCain abandoning other states for Pennsylvania, I've noticed a drop off in McCain ads locally. Perhaps I just don't watch enough Matlock.
Fantasy Election Day
We're at a moment when all sorts of crazy things seem possible. Mitch McConnell could lose! Bye bye Liddy Dole! It's worth remembering that 2 years one crazy impossible thing did actually happen - the Dems took the Senate. It was pretty much conventional wisdom that they'd get the House, but the Senate was an outside shot at best. Macaca!
I thought it was more important for Harold Ford to lose than for the Dems to take the Senate. Fortunately both happened!
I thought it was more important for Harold Ford to lose than for the Dems to take the Senate. Fortunately both happened!
Snap
I'm sure that little insult is going to sting Joe Klein a bit.
But Matt's correct that all major publications who have a reasonable expectation of following a campaign around should have policy that the campaign accepts the reporters they send or none at all. Joe Klein has no right to a seat on the McCain campaign plane, of course, but nor should candidates be rewarded for punishing journalists they don't like.
Campaign spokesperson Michael Goldfarb responded that “we don’t allow Daily Kos diarists on board either.”
But Matt's correct that all major publications who have a reasonable expectation of following a campaign around should have policy that the campaign accepts the reporters they send or none at all. Joe Klein has no right to a seat on the McCain campaign plane, of course, but nor should candidates be rewarded for punishing journalists they don't like.
Why X Won
As I wrote previously, for some reason I'm actually long forward to reading the post-election explanations for why things happened the way they did. They're usually an awful distillation of Village conventional wisdom, and I'm sure a Democratic landslide, if it happens, will be good news for conservatives. But I'm curious.
He Just Can't Connect With Reglar Folks
Just the weirdos.
To put this in context, Obama's favorability numbers, which have increased 10 points over the last month, are now "the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years of Times/CBS polls."
On the other side of the aisle, McCain's unfavorable rating has grown 10 points since September, to 45%, while Sarah Palin's negatives are up 12 points, to 41%.
No Taxation Without Representation
As an emailer reminded me, this new Republican idea that the income tax is the only tax is quite absurd, especially once they start quoting that slogan from the revolution era, when the points of dispute were the Stamp Act and import taxes on tea.
Early Morning FAIL
The spokesflack for Michelle Bachman (aka "Mary Tyler Bore") had this to say after her 'Obama and Democrats are un-American' comment caused a deluge of donations to her opponent, Elwyn Tinklenberg:
"We have tried to run a very positive campaign."
Monday, October 20, 2008
Stuff Which Won't Happen
Lots of by election day/by the end of the year predictions on file. Guess it'll be boring to roll them all out at once, so I'll do them a bit at a time. From May, 2007:
Oh well.
WASHINGTON, May 25 — The Bush administration is developing what are described as concepts for reducing American combat forces in Iraq by as much as half next year, according to senior administration officials in the midst of the internal debate.
It is the first indication that growing political pressure is forcing the White House to turn its attention to what happens after the current troop increase runs its course.
The concepts call for a reduction in forces that could lower troop levels by the midst of the 2008 presidential election to roughly 100,000, from about 146,000, the latest available figure, which the military reported on May 1. They would also greatly scale back the mission that President Bush set for the American military when he ordered it in January to win back control of Baghdad and Anbar Province.
Oh well.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Blah blah blah...
WASHINGTON — Despite his stated desire to close the American prison at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, President Bush has decided not to do so, and never considered proposals drafted in the State Department and the Pentagon that outlined options for transferring the detainees elsewhere, according to senior administration officials.
Mr. Bush’s top advisers held a series of meetings at the White House this summer after a Supreme Court ruling in June cast doubt on the future of the American detention center. But Mr. Bush adopted the view of his most hawkish advisers that closing Guantánamo would involve too many legal and political risks to be acceptable, now or any time soon, the officials said.
The administration is proceeding on the assumption that Guantánamo will remain open not only for the rest of Mr. Bush’s presidency but also well beyond, the officials said, as the site for military tribunals of those facing terrorism-related charges and for the long prison sentences that could follow convictions.
Uh, Asshole? Colbert is Parody
Stop hating on the bears.
CULLOWHEE – A dead bear was found dumped this morning on the Western Carolina University campus, draped with a pair of Obama campaign signs, university police said.
Maintenance workers reported about 7:45 a.m. finding a 75-pound bear cub dumped at the roundabout near the Catamount statute at the entrance to campus, said Tom Johnson, chief of university police.
Poll Porn
CBS/NYT:
In a poll taken just before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket held a five point edge, with 48 percent of likely voters backing the Democratic ticket and 43 percent supporting the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin.
Those 476 likely voters were re-interviewed for the new poll, and their responses suggest that the Democratic ticket has made gains since the initial survey: The Obama-Biden ticket now holds a 13-point edge, 54 percent to 41 percent, among the group.
Bench
This election isn't over yet and even if it turns out as expected I think it's wrong to underestimate just how fast things can snap back. Still it occurs to me that one additional thing that Bush failed to do was groom any future stars. Obviously once his approval rating put him in Worst Preznit Ever category that was a little hard to do, but even before that I don't remember them even trying.
Schools Getting Hammered
It was similar around the time I started college.
STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - As the nation's economy spirals downward, America's colleges and universities are feeling the pain in multiple ways and must take steps now to adjust, said Pennsylvania State University president Graham B. Spanier.
States are cutting funding. Donors are pulling back. Students are having trouble getting loans, and so are colleges, causing a slowdown in building projects. Meanwhile, cash flows are tight and endowments are shrinking, Spanier said in an interview at his office on Friday.
Taxes
I'm really never quite sure who this "don't pay any taxes" stuff is aimed at. Though, thinking about it just this second, maybe I do. Basically everybody pays taxes. So you when you're talking about giving free money to people who don't pay any taxes, that must be somebody else because, you know, I pay taxes.
I suppose that works.
I suppose that works.
Looks Pretty Good
I've mostly resisted the temptation to spend my days staring at an electoral college calculator and state level polls, trying to figure out paths to victory. I've been thinking "he needs Kerry states plus a couple" and been aware enough of what those "couple" need to be. I broke down today and starting playing with one. It's preset with the 2004 results. In any case, I started playing around and realized that if polls are reasonably close to being accurate... Obama will win. Bowers provides actual useful information.
Pinata Politics
I think Steve's description of how the McCain campaign has operated is correct, but it's also one reason he's losing. The public can't digest that many narratives, and surrogates can't keep up either.
Stimulus
Schumer statement in my inbox:
This is correct. More than that, I bet that within 6 months or so help for the states isn't just going to be desirable, but absolutely necessary.
“Chairman Bernanke is saying what anyone who looks at the economy knows is obvious: we need to help not only Wall Street, but also Main Street. A second stimulus, particularly one that creates and preserves jobs by focusing on infrastructure and help for the states, is very much needed.”
This is correct. More than that, I bet that within 6 months or so help for the states isn't just going to be desirable, but absolutely necessary.
Hard To Contemplate
I've never been a fan of John McCain. I never had a mancrush on him as most of the "liberals" in the media once did. But there was a time not all that long ago when I thought that a McCain presidency would at least be a marginal improvement over the Bush presidency. Now I believe it would be much, much worse.
Frightening prospect.
Frightening prospect.
The Simpson Effect
I do so love the internets. Commenter PollieSigh at Swampland:
I believe in this election we will NOT see "The Bradley Effect". Instead, we will see what I call "The Simpson Effect", meaning, Obama will get elected simply because he is BLACK, in spite of the facts that he is "guilty" of being a Socialist, a liar, guilty of being in the MIDDLE of the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae debaucle that was responsible for the financial crisis, guilty taking in over $200,000 in illegal foreign donations, helping to campaign for and continuing a friendship with Prime Minister Raila Odinga who muscled his way into his position by encouraging his followers to commit mass genocide against the oppostion party, guilty of being pals with terrorists criminals, America haters and like Ayers , Rezco, Khalidi, Odinga, guilty of manipulating ACORN and encouraging voter fraud, guilty of running for President of the US when his Indonesion citizenship disqualifies him, GUILTY, GUILTY- but nobody cares because he is BLACK- just like OJ Simpson.
WAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH
I'm guessing the home stretch McCain campaign whine will be that it's unfair that Barack Obama has so much money. This will likely resonate with the press, because they're stupid, and they'll compensate. Fortunately that compensation will largely involve giving more free media to McCain and Palin which will be of no help to their campaign.
There Are A Lot Of Places Like This
Where the economics of land prices have run smack into stupid zoning and land use policies.
Essentially these are the worst of both worlds kind of places, dense enough to have the unpleasant aspects of density but without the sensible land use policies which would allow the good effects of density to appear.
I'm not confident than many of them can be sensibly reshaped, but the ones which probably can be are the ones which are on a decent transit line. Access to mass transit reduces car dependency at least for some, as if someone in your household can use it to commute you can have one fewer car.
Rockville Pike between the NIH and downtown Rockville is an ugly mess of an edge city. Like Tysons, it has too much density to be truly car friendly, but all the ugliness of suburbia: strip malls set back behind acres of surface parking.
Essentially these are the worst of both worlds kind of places, dense enough to have the unpleasant aspects of density but without the sensible land use policies which would allow the good effects of density to appear.
I'm not confident than many of them can be sensibly reshaped, but the ones which probably can be are the ones which are on a decent transit line. Access to mass transit reduces car dependency at least for some, as if someone in your household can use it to commute you can have one fewer car.
Public Financing
While I think the logic of publius's post also suggests that public financing for less important federal offices might still be a good idea, I also find the Obama example to be a pretty good argument against the need and even desirability of publicly financed presidential elections.
15 Days
I've long been optimistic about this election, thinking that Barack Obama was likely, though not guaranteed, to win it. Obviously current polling confirms that view. Admittedly while I've long thought he would likely win, thinking it and believing it are not quite the same thing.
It's important to get ready for what's to come. In 2000, once the dust settled from the election, it was quite frightening to watch the press assume their roles as official courtiers and sycophants. After all of those years of contempt and disdain for Clinton, they welcomed the Bush administration with a gushing love which was truly surreal. Bush didn't get a 100 day honeymoon, he got one which lasted until 9/11... and then got a bit extended.
It won't be like that with Obama. The failed Obama presidency begins the day after the election. Just wait for it.
It's important to get ready for what's to come. In 2000, once the dust settled from the election, it was quite frightening to watch the press assume their roles as official courtiers and sycophants. After all of those years of contempt and disdain for Clinton, they welcomed the Bush administration with a gushing love which was truly surreal. Bush didn't get a 100 day honeymoon, he got one which lasted until 9/11... and then got a bit extended.
It won't be like that with Obama. The failed Obama presidency begins the day after the election. Just wait for it.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Contrast
Something I'm sure I knew, but didn't know, if that makes sense.
Powell and McCain are both in their early 70s.
Get Your Talking Points
Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan agree: Colin Powell and Barack Obama are black.
That's A Big Number
Galbraith:
His broader point is that fiscal expansion is necessary, that despite it being a big and scary number, people will be more than happy to lend the government money at very favorable rates so that it can do necessary things.
I was at the Peterson Institute the other day. There I heard a very good panel discussion of the financial crisis, featuring Fred Bergsten, Adam Posen, Morris Goldstein and others. All agreed that the deficit would exceed one trillion dollars next year. All agreed on the need for the expansionary and stabilizing steps outlined above. Nobody was defending, in any serious way, the Walker-Steuerle line.
I found this greatly encouraging.
His broader point is that fiscal expansion is necessary, that despite it being a big and scary number, people will be more than happy to lend the government money at very favorable rates so that it can do necessary things.
Mo Money
While McCain's real position is just "WAH OBAMA HAS MORE MONEY THAN ME IT'S NOT FAIR," what he's saying might get some play in the media. But given the current contribution limits, and the volume of donations, the idea that even a maxed out donor could exert financial influence over a candidate is pretty ludicrous. More than that, even large donation bundlers are being swamped by small donors. Obama solved the problem of the corrupting influence of money in politics by hauling in too much money, and doing so without corporate PAC money. It'd be pretty hard to raise enough money to get his attention because he's raised so much.
Just In Case It Wasn't Clear
I wasn't knocking living in small towns/rural areas, just pointing out that the location preferences of elite pundits usually don't include them. Vacation homes don't count.
And None Of Them Will Live There
I'd find it a bit weird though not especially bothersome if rural and small town people truly believed that they had unique claim on American authenticity, whatever the hell that means. They can nurture whatever pet conceits they want and they won't really impact me. But when it comes from the mouths and pens of elite pundits who for some reason are not inclined to reside in this precious real America it's really quite annoying. Given the magic of the internets and satellite hookups most of these people could join with their authentic brethren in, say, Fredonia, and live out their fantasy lives.
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