I often agree with Dave Roberts and I thought this was an interesting piece. I've heard similar assessments of the progressive/liberal coalition before, and I think it's based in truth. I don't think it's necessarily a failure of activists so much as the likely result of a disparate coalition trying to affect often disparate policy changes. It's basically more simple for conservatives; if it's regressive, repressive, or resentful they all support it.
Still, it's probably productive for liberal activists across the spectrum to keep what Dave is saying in mind.
Meanwhile in climate-land, John McCain continues to out-maverick even himself.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Very Good
Principles-based regulation should achieve better results, and also should require less costly compliance measures. Obviously anything which depends on regulators requires good regulators, but they should have power, within limits, to say "this isn't working right," instead of seeing if all the established checkboxes are checked.
Austerity
There's always more money for the banksters.
Irish population is about 1/70th of ours, to give you a better idea of the scale...
LONDON — In a sweeping action meant to regain the confidence of jittery investors, the Irish government said Thursday that it expected to inject as much as €40 billion into its two largest banks, underscoring the extent to which they continue to jeopardize the country’s fiscal condition.
Brian Lenihan, Ireland’s finance minister, said that Allied Irish Bank, the country’s second-largest, would come under control of the government via a state-guaranteed share offering worth €5 billion, or about $6.8 billion. He said the current market conditions would not allow for a private transaction.
Irish population is about 1/70th of ours, to give you a better idea of the scale...
Remember
Evan at Truth Wins Out reminds us that young gay Americans get horribly persecuted, with, all too often, tragic results.
Do what you can. But remember, just speaking up is important. If you have a homophobic friend, now is the time, now is the time, for your friendship to end.
MORE. Read.
Do what you can. But remember, just speaking up is important. If you have a homophobic friend, now is the time, now is the time, for your friendship to end.
MORE. Read.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Boo
The same sex element was missing as this story was first developing. Don't secretly tape people having sex and put it on the internet, and please let's move to a world where we're grownup enough about a) sex and b) same sex relationships so that no one feels the need to kill themselves if it happens.
If I Ran The Zoo
Still thinking about the Amtrak NEC HSR proposal. As I said, it really is a trivial amount of money, the amount of one year in Afghanistan spread over 30 years. And after actually reading through some of the details from the actual proposal, it's clear that this isn't just about establishing HSR. It's recognizing that capacity needs to be increased, and there's plenty of maintenance which is going to have to happen anyway so that opportunity might as well leveraged.
Still on the simple question of "if I had $100 billion to spend on transit projects," with an eye to the projects themselves along with good economic stimulus, I'd actually favor funding 1) current intra-city transit projects that are slowing down because of lack of funds and 2) improved inter-city rail corridors elsewhere. Rail in the Northeast is pretty good! And improving it in plenty of places elsewhere is actually pretty cheap.
Still on the simple question of "if I had $100 billion to spend on transit projects," with an eye to the projects themselves along with good economic stimulus, I'd actually favor funding 1) current intra-city transit projects that are slowing down because of lack of funds and 2) improved inter-city rail corridors elsewhere. Rail in the Northeast is pretty good! And improving it in plenty of places elsewhere is actually pretty cheap.
Maybe He Knew What He Was Doing
Don't much like beating up on Waxman because he's usually a good guy, but I was alarmed at his crappy non-neutrality bill. Excerpt from press release just now:
This legislative initiative was predicated on going forward only if we had full bipartisan support in our Committee. We included the Republican staff in our deliberations and made clear that we were prepared to introduce our compromise legislation if we received the backing of Ranking Member Barton and Ranking Member Stearns.
With great regret, I must report that Ranking Member Barton has informed me that support for this legislation will not be forthcoming at this time.
...
I do not close the door on moving legislation this Congress. Cooler heads may prevail after the elections. But I want my position to be clear: my goal is the best outcome for consumers. If our efforts to find bipartisan consensus fail, the FCC should move forward under Title II. The bottom line is that we must protect the open Internet. If Congress can’t act, the FCC must.
eMeg
Actually curious how this story will impact voters.
Obviously lots of Latino voters in California, but a lot of hostility to immigration too.
...link fixed
The California governor's race took on a circus-like atmosphere Wednesday as a former housekeeper for Meg Whitman alleged the Republican gubernatorial nominee employed her for nearly nine years, even though Whitman knew the housekeeper was in the country illegally.
Flanked by attorney Gloria Allred, former Whitman employee Nicandra Diaz made the accusations at a tearful Los Angeles press conference Wednesday. Diaz said she asked Whitman for help with her immigration status in 2009 and Whitman refused. "I felt like she was throwing me away like a piece of garbage," Diaz said.
Obviously lots of Latino voters in California, but a lot of hostility to immigration too.
...link fixed
Buses Buses Everywhere
I'm on one so was pondering this very issue earlier. The quantity of inter-city bus trips emanating form my urban hellhole has increased dramatically over the past several. Seems like there is a steady stream of Boltbus, Megabus, branded Greyhound/Peter Pan, various "Chinatown" buses, etc.
Take The Fees And Run
As Mike says, it appears that once the mortgage services figured out that as long as they could streamline the foreclosure process to the point where they could just make things up and have a judge stamp it, their best plan became to foreclose upon as many people as fast as possible. There were always problems with the way the incentives were misaligned between investors/services/homeowners, but what's going on here is that not only are homeowners being screwed, but so are investors. Of course Uncle Sam's one of those investors.
Or Maybe They're Seriously Full Of Shit
I know it's farting in church to suggest that maybe some of the great and noble elites who run the planet are full of shit, but maybe their expression of nonsense reasons for not supporting the policies which obviously should be followed is because they identify with the interests of that small segment of the population for whom modest inflation is "bad."
Capacity
One takeaway from this article on Amtrak's SUPERTRAIN plans is that the Northeast Corridor is just about at capacity in terms of its transportation infrastructure. A bit more population growth and the trains will be packed, much of 95 will be packed, and the airspace is already packed. Adding more capacity is going to be expensive, in part because of the cost and difficulty of expanding right of ways, no matter how we do it.
A new underground station in Philadelphia? That means a new tunnel. Crazy talk.
A new underground station in Philadelphia? That means a new tunnel. Crazy talk.
A Thousand Little Hoovers
The big problems have not been solved, the can was just kicked down the road in hopes that the economy would rebound and solve them automatically.
Fraud
Banksters are just stealing homes now.
Critical papers regarding his Orlando home were missing dates, and some signatures appeared to him to be forged. The mortgage had been sold so often - including once in the middle of the foreclosure process - that at times it was hard to tell which company was trying to seize the house. He challenged the foreclosure in court but failed.
Now, as Fernandez seeks to appeal his eviction and get his home back, he has learned that the law firm representing the banks is under investigation for fabricating foreclosure documents. And his file was signed by Jeffrey Stephan, a document processor who made headlines last week for approving what could be hundreds of thousands of cases without verifying whether the foreclosures were justified.
First Draft!
First Draft is a great blog with great writing & one of the finest blogs to come out of the Eschaton community. Support their fantastic work if you at all can, or at least just do yourself a favor and read them.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
ONE HUNRED AND SEVENTEEN BILLION DOLLARS
Whether or not it's worth it, it's hardly a lot of money over 30 years. But, coincidentally, it's almost exactly what Afghanistan is going to cost us in 2011.
Cutting Food Stamps
Aside from actually helping people who need it, it's also about the best stimulus there is. Quick transfer of near-cash to people who will spend it right away through already existing program.
Appreciating The Scale of Human Misery
It might be a good moment to contemplate how many people have lost their homes, and how many people probably still will in the near future.
That's the problem. Not liberal bloggers. And if they'd listened to me things would be better.
That's the problem. Not liberal bloggers. And if they'd listened to me things would be better.
Because We Care
Trying to resist temptation to meta, but what the hell. Categories two and three here basically don't matter for November. I could write a million furious blog posts and Maddow could have Greenwald on every night to talk about the hopey changeyness of presidential assassination orders and the impact on the November outcomes would be almost precisely zero.
The economy sucks, the policies didn't work well enough, and the "we'll get through this if we wait a little bit longer and cut small business taxes yet again because it worked so well the first time" rhetoric isn't working.*
*Some stuff in the small business bill is fine, but it's mostly more bank shot policies which cost quite a bit. Hire people. Put them to work.
The economy sucks, the policies didn't work well enough, and the "we'll get through this if we wait a little bit longer and cut small business taxes yet again because it worked so well the first time" rhetoric isn't working.*
*Some stuff in the small business bill is fine, but it's mostly more bank shot policies which cost quite a bit. Hire people. Put them to work.
They Might
Actually people might live with their parents forever.
I think this expresses well the basic thinking from them about the economy. Give it some time and the ship will right itself.
In other words, we've learned nothing.
I think this expresses well the basic thinking from them about the economy. Give it some time and the ship will right itself.
In other words, we've learned nothing.
The Puppies And Apple Pie Act
The sad thing is that Democrats are just really bad at playing this game. Find an idea that's simple, popular, and easy to sell. Spend six weeks talking about nothing else on the teevee. Then dare the Republicans to vote against it. If it doesn't pass, a few more people actually know that Republicans don't like puppies and apple pie. Wasting time trying to pass small things most people have no clue about is pointless.
Bucking Up
Data is noisy, and so we get both good news and bad news. My expert analysis of all of the data is that it's screaming "meh." And meh isn't good enough, because meh means no job growth. No job growth means continuing mass unemployment.
And that's why people aren't bucking up.
And that's why people aren't bucking up.
Don't Know Nothing
This is the only thing that surprised me.
Forty-five percent of Catholics did not know that their church teaches that the consecrated bread and wine in holy communion are not merely symbols, but actually become the body and blood of Christ.
Nobody could have anticipated, especially the religious
Agnostics and atheists tend to know more about religion than religious people.
This is why I only worship Andy Partridge.
This is why I only worship Andy Partridge.
Monday, September 27, 2010
I Vote For Nothing
That Republicans would oppose any tax increases was 100% predictable, the only thing we don't know is just how craven the Dems are.
Not Gonna Do It
"We started with a pretty good bill, now let's make it better" would be a decent strategy. But it won't happen.
What's The Matter With Nebraska
It wasn't exactly housing bubble central and it has very low unemployment, but it has lots of eated banks.
Marker
A frustrating thing is that the administration doesn't say, "we'd like to do this but we got the best we can do," instead they say "what we did was awesome." The result is that they don't even come across as advocates for the more liberal (and quite often the more popular) position.
Incompetent Workers
I'm reminded again of the New York Times story about the poor company suffering from the effect of tragic structural unemployment because it couldn't find skilled workers at $13/hour.
Things are really wrong.
Things are really wrong.
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Rage
I don't normally feel the need to fact check Krgthulu, but I did actually look this one up.
What he actually said is much worse.
SYSTEM FAIL
...adding, realize this sort of implies I thought Krugman got something wrong, which he didn't, just that the full quote in context is even worse than the snippet.
Now, the Minneapolis Fed is known for its conservative outlook, and claims that unemployment is mainly structural do tend to come from the right of the political spectrum. But some people on the other side of the aisle say similar things. For example, former President Bill Clinton recently told an interviewer that unemployment remained high because “people don’t have the job skills for the jobs that are open.
What he actually said is much worse.
How could this be? Because people don't have the job skills for the jobs that are open. So here's the most important thing. If we were hiring since last June when economists said the shrinkage stopped, between then and now, if we had been hiring people on the jobs where people are trying to hire, that is we could get those jobs this morning after this TV show is over, if we were doing that at the same rate were doing that in 93, 94, 95, there would be five million more people at work. This unemployment rate would be 6.9 (percent) not 9.6 (percent.) We would be in a different world, not just economically but emotionally as as country.
SYSTEM FAIL
...adding, realize this sort of implies I thought Krugman got something wrong, which he didn't, just that the full quote in context is even worse than the snippet.
Our media - not theirs!
I'm delighted to say that tonight's guests on Virtually Speaking Sundays will be Avedon Carol of The Sideshow and Susie Madrak of Suburban Guerrilla and Crooks and Liars. You can listen live to the stream here at 5:00 PM Pacific, 8:00 Eastern, or listen to it later, or grab the podcast when it's posted.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Shoebox
As longtime readers know, I love reading the Inqy comments section where racist suburbanites wax philosophic on my urban hellhole. One common refrain is that Philly rowhouses are tiny "shoeboxes." And while it's true that they tend to be relatively narrow, and there are some truly tiny "trinity" rowhouses, many are actually quite large.
..adding, there's nothing wrong with small houses, but this is part of the general argument that urban living is incompatible with having a family.
..adding, there's nothing wrong with small houses, but this is part of the general argument that urban living is incompatible with having a family.
My Life In The Urban Hellhole
This Inqy commenter describes it.
Center City and its cluster of yuppified neighborhoods, places that we've never heard called Bella Vista till some braying schmuck shilling marginal flats and lots talked it into being back in the year 1985, is still a ghetto. It may have a layer of gilt and gelt, it's still a ghetto. No one will respect your property or personal safety in the ghetto because it's still predominately the seething jungle, inhabited by various marginal species with no refinement, taste or sense of restraint. My niece started school at a location in the ghetto and we made sure she knew how to handle a bottle of mace and a Colt 45 before consigning her to the pricey dorm.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Arne Duncan, Michelle Rhee, Randi Weingarten (AFT head), and Robert Bobb (Detroit schools).
Face the Nation is filled with Republicans and Tea Party weirdos.
This Week has Axelrod, McConnell, and Queen Rania.
I swear it gets weirder every week. Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation is filled with Republicans and Tea Party weirdos.
This Week has Axelrod, McConnell, and Queen Rania.
I swear it gets weirder every week. Document the atrocities!
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Fail Whale
Krgthulu:
Is it possible that there has been some rise in structural unemployment that’s swamped by a much larger rise in cyclical unemployment? Yes, conceivably. And let’s talk about that when unemployment gets below, say, 7 percent — which at current rates of progress will happen, well, never.
I really don’t think there’s any way to make sense of the fuss about structural unemployment unless you posit that a lot of influential people are looking for reasons not to act. Based on everything we know, this just shouldn’t be an issue. What the economy needs is more demand; provide that, and you’ll be amazed at how many willing, productive workers there are, currently sitting idle.
Friday, September 24, 2010
Our Lovely Reality
I learned a lot the summer I temped at a collections agency.
Two days after being confronted by ABC News, Bank of America has fired a debt collection agency after several of its operators were caught using racist and obscene phone calls to collect debts from bank customers.
"What's up, you f---ing n---r?" said one of the collection agents in a message to 32-year old Allen Jones of Dallas, who owed $81 on his Bank of America credit card.
They Write Letters
September 24, 2010
Michael J. Williams
President and Chief Executive Officer
Fannie Mae
3900 Wisconsin Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20016
Dear Mr. Williams,
We are disturbed by the increasing reports of predatory 'foreclosure mills' in Florida working for Fannie Mae servicers. Foreclosure mills are law firms representing lenders that specialize in speeding up the foreclosure process, often without regard to process, substance, or legal propriety. According to the New York Times, four of these mills are both among the busiest of the firms and are under investigation by the Attorney General of Florida for fraud. The firms have been accused of fabricating or backdating documents, as well as lying to conceal the true owner of a note.
Several of the busiest of these mills show up as members of Fannie Mae's Retained Attorney Network, a set of legal contractors on whom Fannie relies to represent its interests as a note-holder. The network also serves as a pool of legal talent that represents Fannie in its pre-filing mediation program, a program designed to facilitate communication between borrowers and servicers prior to foreclosure. In other words, Fannie Mae seems to specifically delegate its foreclosure avoidance obligations out to lawyers who specialize in kicking people out of their homes.
Who Are You Talking To
I get annoyed by this kind of thing. It isn't griping bloggers or, more importantly, their readers who might not vote in November. It's the people for whom politics is an optional activity.
Base Motivation
President Snowe has nothing to do with this.
SAN DIEGO — Attorneys for the Obama administration objected Thursday to a proposed worldwide injunction being considered by a California federal judge that would halt the military's ban on openly gay troops.
Calling the possible move "untenable," Department of Justice attorneys filed their objections in U.S. District Court in Riverside.
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Base Motivation
I can ignore the hippie punching, but it should be accompanied with, say, a promise not to cut social security.
It really isn't hard.
It really isn't hard.
Reality Bites
Finally pre-election monthly jobs report comes out on October. I haven't seen any data to suggest we should expect a significant drop in the unemployment rate or increased jobs growth, and in fact given the fluctuations in the labor participation rate, an increase in the unemployment rate is certainly possible.
SUPERTROLLEY
....the route 15 is the only retro line, though the other five urban lines aren't exactly new. Here's one in the tunnel.
And More
Not sure there's much new here, but WaPo has another article about the foreclosure process mess.
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Evening Thread
The 'C' bus up Broad St. is always pulling away right when I get there. DAMN YOU C BUS!!!
Also, Local Demand, And Such
One reason I look forward to the new Census data is because I'm curious if my urban hellhole has finally stopped its decades-long period of shrinkage and has either maintained population at its 2000 level or maybe even grown a bit. Growth would, hopefully, finally steer policymakers away from thinking mostly about how to lure outsiders into the city and get them to remember that while tourists and visitors are delightful and you can soak them in various ways (hotel taxes and whatnot), local residents also generate demand to support an active and lively city.
Also, they like clean streets.
Also, they like clean streets.
Street Cleaning
There are a bunch of unemployed people around. Street cleaning isn't a highly skilled job, and I'm pretty sure for a reasonable wage you could find a lot of people willing to clean streets. This would turn unemployed people into employed people, reducing the current quantity of human misery, and provide the added benefits of healthier water systems and cleaner streets.
All of this is just an overly long way of making the obvious point that there are simple productive tasks that don't require that much in the way of planning that the federal government could spend money on. I'm not sure how well my street cleaning plan scales nationwide, but I'm sure we could think of other mostly productive things for people to do.
Stupid Or Lying
It's the eternal debate. I suppose they want him to say, "One more terrorist attack and it's all over."
Appointments
Trying not to think to much about White House staffing issues, but if David Gergen is hired as Chief of Staff I'm going to shoot myself in the face.
The Missing View
Here's how the WaPo writes up Summers exit:
While it acknowledges that "some Democrats" have been critical, the implication is that their criticisms were similar to those of Congressional Republicans and Boehner. Missing is any suggestion that there is criticism from The Left.
Congressional Republicans - and some Democrats - have been more critical of Summers's tenure. House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) recently called on Obama to fire both Summers and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, accusing the White House of pursuing misguided economic policies that ran up record deficits without creating jobs or significantly improving the economy.
Many prominent economists have rebutted that view, arguing that Obama's economic policies prevented last year's recession from turning into a depression. Still, with unemployment at 9.6 percent and Democrats getting battered in the polls, even some administration loyalists say they were surprised that it has taken so long for Obama to recast his message on the economy and reshape his economic team.
While it acknowledges that "some Democrats" have been critical, the implication is that their criticisms were similar to those of Congressional Republicans and Boehner. Missing is any suggestion that there is criticism from The Left.
Reality Bites
I've long thought "It's the Economy, Stupid" was a bit overblown in 1992, but I think right now our political class is utterly failing to recognize the reality. As Digby says, the professional left isn't causing problems for the administration and Democrats, the economy is. From what I've seen of campaigns, candidates are campaigning on positioning relative to symbols (Pelosi, HCR, tax cuts for rich!), instead of telling voters they're going to make their lives better. Tweaks around the edges, or plans to establish programs with tax credits to blah blah blah don't do it. The system is blinking red, and politicians are failing to recognize that.
We Could Be Here For A Very Long Time
I imagine that the people in charge figure that, well, the economy will eventually turn around. That isn't necessarily true.
Say What The Reporter Wants To Say
I've only had a few of nontrivial interactions with reporters for stories they were doing, but in every case it was clear the reporter already had a story they were trying to tell and were just fishing for the right quote so I could tell it for them.
I've long been puzzled why so many journalists really think journalism is about "working the phones" especially when mostly "working the phones" involves "dinging someone at some think tank to say what you want to tell the reader."
I've long been puzzled why so many journalists really think journalism is about "working the phones" especially when mostly "working the phones" involves "dinging someone at some think tank to say what you want to tell the reader."
"Mistake"
I do not think that word means what the Washington Post is happy to have its readers think it means.
Some of the nation's largest mortgage companies used a single document processor who said he signed off on foreclosures without having read the paperwork - an admission that may open the door for homeowners across the country to challenge foreclosure proceedings.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Decision Points
They screwed up first with a too small stimulus.
They screwed up second last December/January when they got skeered ofzombie unicorns invisible bond vigilantes.
They screwed up the third time when they thought recovery summer was here and the jobs growth was coming, despite very little evidence of that.
They screwed up second last December/January when they got skeered of
They screwed up the third time when they thought recovery summer was here and the jobs growth was coming, despite very little evidence of that.
Everthing's Terrible It's All Our Fault And We're Not Going To Change
The sociopaths at the Fed have spoken.
Bye Larry
Don't let the door...
And maybe one day you can explain to the world why an "insurance policy" was all that was needed.
And maybe one day you can explain to the world why an "insurance policy" was all that was needed.
And Speaking Of Sucky Elites
The Fed has, once again, chosen to do nothing despite having ongoing mass unemployment and failing to meet their too small unofficial inflation target.
You Suck
I know Chris Hayes is writing a big book on this subject, but I work in a different medium so I can crank it out in 90 seconds or less. I'm someone who used to have a bit of respect and deference for The People In Charge. You know, Senators and such. Now I think most of them truly suck and worry that elites are going to destroy the country.
Mysteries
I'm always mystified when high income people get DUI charges, and double that in New York City. Hire a driver, take a cab. You can afford it.
I Want That Data Now
I'm still a bit of a data nerd, so I'm really looking forward to the release of census data.
Anyone Wanna Blame The People In Charge?
I admit to not following education reform debates very closely, not because I don't think it's important but because, well, limited time and all that. But I gather the basic narrative that is out there is that well-meaning school administrators are thwarted at every step due to the overwhelming power of teachers unions. Now I'm sure there are bad teachers who are difficult to fire, but when I follow school news locally it seems to me that it's the administration who are incompetent at best and corrupt at worst.
And, no, of course not saying that about all people in school administration, just that it's remarkable that the people who run the show, and can more freely speak to the media, are blameless.
And, no, of course not saying that about all people in school administration, just that it's remarkable that the people who run the show, and can more freely speak to the media, are blameless.
Rage
I'm informed by Igor Volsky that the very serious and moderate Senator Collins thinks that it is more important for her party to be allowed to offer the precise number of amendments they want to offer and tie up the Senate for a very long time than it is to extend equality by repealing DADT.
We are ruled by very bad people.
Call her office and complain if you are so inclined (202) 224-2523.
We are ruled by very bad people.
Call her office and complain if you are so inclined (202) 224-2523.
A Development Which Will Ensure Their Continued Relevance And Profitability
Newsweek actually hired Mickey Kaus.
TERRORIST
Think idiots running out on field of sporting events are, well, idiots,but I just loved this comment to the story.
I am afraid this nonsense will encourage a terrorist to run on the field and attack one of the players.
The Wank
Verbatim Mark Halperin:
FROM: Mark HalperinRight.
TO: Coastal Elites, the Media and Establishment Politicians of Both Parties
RE: Sarah Heath Palin
FROM: Thers
TO: Mark Halperin
RE: Your "memo" addressed to "Coastal Elites, the Media and Establishment Politicians of Both Parties"
Dear Mark:
Your lack of self-awareness is frightening. Get help.
Love,
Thers
Monday, September 20, 2010
We're All Terrorists Now
Completely unsurprising but worth knowing.
The FBI improperly opened and extended investigations of some U.S. activist groups and put members of an environmental advocacy organization on a terrorist watch list, even though they were planning nonviolent civil disobedience, the Justice Department said Monday.
Stop Your Whining
So the recession was over in June '09. Huzzah!
I know I'm a broken record on this, but there is no great mystery why the Dems are looking at potentially major problems in November. The economy is truly atrocious and has been for a long time. I remember just before the '08 election - almost two years ago - betting a friend that unemployment would rise above 7.6%. At the time to many people 7.6% seemed to be a pretty crazy number, even in the middle of the unfolding crisis. Soon after the administration projected that unemployment would peak at 9% from Q1-Q3 2010, and then start declining without any stimulus. It's now been above 9% since May 2009, including 3 months where it was 10%+. If I had traveled back in time to warn them of this state of affairs, they would have been more likely to believe the time travel part.
There are areas of this country that are completed devastated, some due mostly to the collapse of the housing bubble and, increasingly, places which are being demolished by the recession even though they were largely untouched by the bubble.
Maybe an "I feel your pain" or "Message: I care" speech isn't going to do it, but jokes about the petulant base at $30,000 fundraisers aren't going to help either. Though, in truth, the petulant base - the assholes who don't cheerlead sufficiently on their blogs - are going to go out and vote. We vote. It's what we do. It's the people who are unemployed, union members wondering what happened to EFCA, immigrants and their families who know that we got a bunch of money to militarize the border and stepped up deportation but no progress on immigration reform, and women who might question the administration commitment to reproductive rights for good reasons.
Now I hope all of these people go out and vote. I certainly think keeping Team Blue in power is important and not just because the Republicans are stupid and crazy, but if they don't vote it isn't my fault.
...also this, too. And such.
I know I'm a broken record on this, but there is no great mystery why the Dems are looking at potentially major problems in November. The economy is truly atrocious and has been for a long time. I remember just before the '08 election - almost two years ago - betting a friend that unemployment would rise above 7.6%. At the time to many people 7.6% seemed to be a pretty crazy number, even in the middle of the unfolding crisis. Soon after the administration projected that unemployment would peak at 9% from Q1-Q3 2010, and then start declining without any stimulus. It's now been above 9% since May 2009, including 3 months where it was 10%+. If I had traveled back in time to warn them of this state of affairs, they would have been more likely to believe the time travel part.
There are areas of this country that are completed devastated, some due mostly to the collapse of the housing bubble and, increasingly, places which are being demolished by the recession even though they were largely untouched by the bubble.
Maybe an "I feel your pain" or "Message: I care" speech isn't going to do it, but jokes about the petulant base at $30,000 fundraisers aren't going to help either. Though, in truth, the petulant base - the assholes who don't cheerlead sufficiently on their blogs - are going to go out and vote. We vote. It's what we do. It's the people who are unemployed, union members wondering what happened to EFCA, immigrants and their families who know that we got a bunch of money to militarize the border and stepped up deportation but no progress on immigration reform, and women who might question the administration commitment to reproductive rights for good reasons.
Now I hope all of these people go out and vote. I certainly think keeping Team Blue in power is important and not just because the Republicans are stupid and crazy, but if they don't vote it isn't my fault.
...also this, too. And such.
The Servant Problem
Krugman jokes (maybe), but really that's why it isn't nearly as much fun having money in a prosperous country. True servants - not just people who cut your lawn or clean your house, but people who are live in or come daily - are unaffordable for all but the super rich. Sad state affairs, really.
If The Existing Tunnels Shut Down
And they are 100 years old, then traffic in and out of New York City will be a complete nightmare no matter how many highways Christie builds. A major reason to build the new Hudson rail tunnel is redundancy.
...I should add the project is currently budgeted at 1.5 Mias.
...I should add the project is currently budgeted at 1.5 Mias.
Really Dumb Ideas That Won't Ever Go Away
Yes they might have some use at airports or large disney-style amusement park complexes, places which aren't too large but for which distances are too long to walk in part because of all of the parking lots, but, no, PRT is not practical for large scale urban transport...
Forever Running Against Themselves
Democrats should have noticed that runnng against Nancy Pelosi hasn't worked very well for Republicans so it is unlikely to do much for them.
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Evening Thread
Earlier on On the Media I heard the guy who wrote this apology trying to deny that it said what it plainly said.
What a wanker.
What a wanker.
Sunday Bobbleheads
It's Clinton week.
This week has Ahmadinejad and Secretary Clinton.
This Week has President Clinton and Colin Powell.
Face the Nation has President Clinton.
Document the atrocities!
This week has Ahmadinejad and Secretary Clinton.
This Week has President Clinton and Colin Powell.
Face the Nation has President Clinton.
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Introducing The Mia
That's our new currency unit, the Months In Afghanistan. One Mia buys one month in Afghanistan, currently about $6 billion.
I have no idea if the best idea for a transportation project is a new metro line to Dulles. But I do know that it costs all of .66 Mia.
I have no idea if the best idea for a transportation project is a new metro line to Dulles. But I do know that it costs all of .66 Mia.
So Tired Of The Freak Show
Sure it's entertaining at times, but it also serves to obscure the fact that politics is important and not just another episode of American Idol or Top Chef.
Beware Of The Hippies
This kind of stuff reads like scary tales about the bad old days under J. Edgar Hoover.
Late Night
Some odds and ends I (I'm John for all you RSS readers) have been meaning to highlight:
- Seven key senate races and 8 key house races to advance a moral and sensible climate/energy policy.
- The Solar Electric Light Fund is a reputable and worthwhile charity if you have a job and have a little left over.
- I always endorse supporting one of your favorite bloggers, like Booman in my case.
- Seven key senate races and 8 key house races to advance a moral and sensible climate/energy policy.
- The Solar Electric Light Fund is a reputable and worthwhile charity if you have a job and have a little left over.
- I always endorse supporting one of your favorite bloggers, like Booman in my case.
Friday, September 17, 2010
The Obvious Course Is To Do The Opposite
I haven't figured out of the Blue Dogs and assorted fellow travelers really think supporting tax cuts for rich people is the way to keep their jobs or the way to audition for their next job... Because, you know, it isn't popular.
Making More Of Existing System
I'm on one of my local transit authority's regional rail (commuter) lines, and am struck as I always am when I take such a trip by how little transit oriented development there is around the transit. Now it's certainly possible that in many cases bad land use is actually market driven. But my guess is that in many cases, as it is generally, it's actually illegal to build any such development. So you have park and ride lots next to the stations.
I'm certainly for building new SUPERTRAINS, but it's also true that we could provide more access to alternative transit if we improved stupid zoning and land use laws.
I'm certainly for building new SUPERTRAINS, but it's also true that we could provide more access to alternative transit if we improved stupid zoning and land use laws.
Good Ideas
Yes cities should figure out how to soak commuters who do use many city services but who do not pay much in the ways of taxes. Some cities do have a commuter tax of one sort or another, but many more are prevented from doing so. Like any attempt to tax there is a risk that it discourages the kind of behavior you actually want to encourage (like coming downtown and spending money), but there's a lot of employment in downtown DC that isn't going to go anywhere pretty much no matter what.
The Dangers Of Not Checking Article Dates
Earlier HAMP article was from March, which doesn't exactly get Treasury off the hook. Anyway, as I said, if they spend $5 billion I'll be shocked.
The People At Treasury Can't Be Trusted
Via dday we have this:
A month ago:
I didn't believe it either, but they said it. The HAMP money promise was used to gain support in Congress for the release of TARP part deux funds. HAMP became a Treasury blessed predatory lending programing which screwed good faith homeowners attempting to participate in it.
The truth is if they spend $5 billion on it I'll be shocked.
...check post update here.
As for President Obama's mortgage modification program, the CBO estimates that the Treasury Department will use no more than $20 billion of TARP funds, less than half of the $50 billion originally allocated. That's because the CBO expects many fewer people will participate in the program than the government originally expected, a view held by many housing industry observers.
A month ago:
There was talk about how fiscal policy can’t move through Congress. I asked them about only 0.5% of HAMP being spent and how that could be used without Congress’ permission. Before I suggested that the remainder of the $50bn be divided into two funds, the Digging Holes Across States (DHAS) fund and the Filling Holes Across States (FHAS) fund, two far more socially productive means of spending the HAMP money than what is currently being done with it, I was told that the entire $50bn is expected to be spent by the time the program is over. I didn’t believe it; we will see.
I didn't believe it either, but they said it. The HAMP money promise was used to gain support in Congress for the release of TARP part deux funds. HAMP became a Treasury blessed predatory lending programing which screwed good faith homeowners attempting to participate in it.
The truth is if they spend $5 billion on it I'll be shocked.
...check post update here.
But Keep It Simple
I think Roubini's idea to use some or all of revenue gains from expiring upper income tax cuts to fund a payroll tax cut is a good one, but keep it simple. There's no need to scale it for poorer versus middle class workers (remember the cap means that the Social Security portion of the payroll tax isn't paid by super high income people anyway) or cut it more on the employer side than the employee side. Just cut it evenly across the board.
Miseducating Our Children
I guess it could be worse.
I don't remember whatever formal sex education I had very well, but my hazy memory is that what was flawed about it was that it never quite explained that people do this sex thing because they're horny and it feels good.
ATLANTA - Almost all U.S. teens have had formal sex education, but only about two-thirds have been taught about birth control methods, according to a new government report released Wednesday.
Many teens apparently are not absorbing those lessons , other recent data shows that after years of steady decline, the teen birth rate rose from 2005 to 2007. It dipped again in 2008, to about 10 percent of all births.
I don't remember whatever formal sex education I had very well, but my hazy memory is that what was flawed about it was that it never quite explained that people do this sex thing because they're horny and it feels good.
Nobody Cares About The Deficit
Especially the ones who screech the loudest about it.
After all these years you'd think reporters would have figured out this game, but oh well.
After all these years you'd think reporters would have figured out this game, but oh well.
Oopsy
Sorry for ensuring mass unemployment and continuing misery. Our bad, pass the cocktails.
(Reuters) - The world economy is proving weaker than expected in the second half and countries should consider pushing back austerity measures if that weakness persists, the OECD's Secretary General said on Friday.
"We had forecast a weakening of the recovery in the second half," the OECD's Angel Gurria told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Vienna. "The question was how weak was it going to be. And I have to say I think it's been weaker than we thought."
SUPERTRAINS
For some reason Salt Lake City's extensive rail system/planned extensions never gets much love from transit nerds. So I'm giving it some love.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Disappointments
When I first heard about the "Solar on the White House" project earlier this summer I was excited, but quickly grew more ambivalent. My first reaction was "what a great way to promote solar energy," but I grew sympathetic to the perspective that this country is so crazy that if Obama put solar PV or thermal on the White House we would indeed be treated to an endless and unhelpful summer of Obama = Carter freakout, as well as a serious and sober national debate about how solar energy is really the purview of hippies and communists.
I still think there's merit to that argument, but I'm a bit chastened by Bill McKibben's article at Grist. I think he makes valid points, and deserves to be listened to and taken seriously. Greens have eaten a lot of shit these last few years, and we've basically waited in the back of the left-wing coalition line (well, maybe ahead of unions). Whether or not Harry Reid can push an RES through the lame duck session, it would be nice for the activists to get some support, token or otherwise, from the administration.
Just my two cents.
I still think there's merit to that argument, but I'm a bit chastened by Bill McKibben's article at Grist. I think he makes valid points, and deserves to be listened to and taken seriously. Greens have eaten a lot of shit these last few years, and we've basically waited in the back of the left-wing coalition line (well, maybe ahead of unions). Whether or not Harry Reid can push an RES through the lame duck session, it would be nice for the activists to get some support, token or otherwise, from the administration.
Just my two cents.
Manimal
Tonight I ask you to pass legislation to prohibit the most egregious abuses of medical research: human cloning in all its forms; creating or implanting embryos for experiments; creating human-animal hybrids; and buying, selling or patenting human embryos.
Bye Lincoln
After so many years it's nice to have the luxury of being able to root against bad Dems.
Urban Hellhole Blogging
Even in the urban hellhole there are drivers who think crosswalks and pedestrian crossing lights are merely a bit of fiction, and that if I happen to be on the crosswalk when they are attempting to make a right turn the appropriate response is to honk and yell.
The GOP Daddies Of Yore
Glennzilla raises some important points about Villager hostility to O'Donnell. Basically, Villager scorn is largely class-based, in that they're not for the most part objecting to the food she likes to eat but the fact that she uses the wrong fork to eat it and doesn't put her cloth napkin on her lap. And while the anti-masturbation stuff might sound a bit kooky, we should also remember that there was a full Village Freakout when Joycelyn Elders dared to mention the word and she was promptly fired. Her views about sex are the official GOP views on sex - none ever until Jesus blesses it. It's funny that she's a creationist, but even many leading intellectual lights of the conservative movement can't admit that they believe in evolution.
Anyway, like Glenn, I don't know where this belief in a serious noncrazy Republican party comes from. They've been dominated by the worst for a very long time, and O'Donnell fits right in.
Anyway, like Glenn, I don't know where this belief in a serious noncrazy Republican party comes from. They've been dominated by the worst for a very long time, and O'Donnell fits right in.
The American Dream
Poverty rate jumps to 14.3%.
If the American economy does not function in a way that lets people who try reasonably hard obtain desired education, find fairly stable employment, obtain modest improvements in income/standard of living over the course of their lifetimes, earn enough money so that raising a family is possible, then we're doing something wrong.
If the American economy does not function in a way that lets people who try reasonably hard obtain desired education, find fairly stable employment, obtain modest improvements in income/standard of living over the course of their lifetimes, earn enough money so that raising a family is possible, then we're doing something wrong.
The Forgotten Foreclosure Crisis
No worries, the Treasury's predatory lending program, AKA HAMP, slowed things down a bit.
US foreclosure activity rose in August from the previous month, and banks and lenders took ownership from homeowners at a record pace, according to a new report released Thursday.
...
“There is a buildup in delinquent loans that are not in foreclosure,” said Rick Sharga, senior vice president of RealtyTrac, adding that banks and lenders are slowing the process to avoid a drop in home prices. “It’s a managed slowdown more than anything else,” he said.
“The underlining conditions haven’t improved,” Sharga added, referring to high unemployment and falling home prices in certain markets.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
I Know She's In The House
But I still think Michelle Bachman should be made Republican leader in the Senate. Maybe Attorney General Lindsey Graham can make that happen somehow.
And Warren
Finally.
The buzz I was hearing was that contrary to what some people thought, they didn't really have authority to appoint an 'interim director' but that instead Treasury had authority to run things in the interim. Distinction without difference, perhaps, but this seems (I hope) to put her in charge in all but name.
The buzz I was hearing was that contrary to what some people thought, they didn't really have authority to appoint an 'interim director' but that instead Treasury had authority to run things in the interim. Distinction without difference, perhaps, but this seems (I hope) to put her in charge in all but name.
Good News For Alan Simpson
His dream of greater desperation, misery, and humiliation of older Americans is coming true.
They're Cute When They Fight
The spectacle of self-righteous conservatives going for the maximum haughty bitching about each others' facebook posts is hilarious.
Another Day, Another Chart
I feel like there are a few of us in blogland who spend most of our time trying to come up with new and vaguely interesting ways of say, "The economy sucks, there are things that could be done about that, why isn't anybody doing those things?"
So here's another chart.
So here's another chart.
The Things That Matter
One thing that is continually frustrating in our media is that the people who are paid to talk about politics focus on the polls, the horse race, the "appeal" of the candidate. I was listening to NPR for a bit and it took callers to inject any issues of policy or substance.
Now I get that all the things that shouldn't matter much in politics do actually matter. Most people don't spend a lot of time to inform themselves on candidate platforms, policy positions, etc. So much about a candidate is unknown and unknowable so people, as we all do, make gut level decisions based on charisma and other things. And to some degree charisma itself is a real thing in a business where persuading people is part of your job. But still, every now and then, it would be nice to be reminded that it's policy that really matters.
Now I get that all the things that shouldn't matter much in politics do actually matter. Most people don't spend a lot of time to inform themselves on candidate platforms, policy positions, etc. So much about a candidate is unknown and unknowable so people, as we all do, make gut level decisions based on charisma and other things. And to some degree charisma itself is a real thing in a business where persuading people is part of your job. But still, every now and then, it would be nice to be reminded that it's policy that really matters.
What Motivates Them
I don't believe all (or even most) Republicans are anti-sex, science denying, theocratic freaks, but I do believe that significant numbers of them who don't really believe these things are happy to embrace this stuff and candidates who embrace this stuff because they think that it pisses of liberals. Pissing off liberals is the great uniter.
Lucy's Football
One day I hope that Democrats realize nobody cares about the deficit, it's just something people know everybody agrees is "bad" so they channel their other discontents into it.
The stimulus was "bad" not because it increased the deficit, but because, as always, teabaggers suspect that most of it went to undeserving brown people, and tax cuts are always free.
The stimulus was "bad" not because it increased the deficit, but because, as always, teabaggers suspect that most of it went to undeserving brown people, and tax cuts are always free.
But She Won't Win
I'm really not on board with the "Republicans will rule one day so let's hope they're not crazy when they do" idea. First of all, Republicans... already crazy! I think the new batch of crazies are just more likely to be up front about it and less likely to be well trained in how to speak crazy in code. Second, yes Republicans might rule one day, but the existence of amateur crazy candidates makes that less likely.
As for the fact that Republican voters are crazy...well, that isn't new either. What's new is they've gotten permission from their leaders (Rush, Glenn, Sarah) to stop voting for the establishment.
As for the fact that Republican voters are crazy...well, that isn't new either. What's new is they've gotten permission from their leaders (Rush, Glenn, Sarah) to stop voting for the establishment.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Ain't No Law Against It Yet
Aside from the increased likelihood that it'll remain a Dem seat, getting rid of incumbents in the Senate is always a good thing in and of itself. That good thing is balanced against other potential bad things - I don't want to lose the good guys/women or for the Dems to lose control - but all other things equal (they of course usually aren't), yay challengers!
Against Freedom Of Religion
I know I shouldn't be surprised anymore, but I really thought some issues were mostly settled in this country.
Why Big Corporations And The Rich Need To Pay More In Taxes
Because quite often the state expends a lot of resources looking out for their interests.
It's All About The Real Estate
As for the NY/250K issue, I would say that yes, a 250K household income in Manhattan doesn't allow you to be well off in quite the same way that it allows you to be well off in most of the rest of the country. The main issue is not only is real estate generally hideously expensive, but there's also a tremendous premium for anything bigger than a 2 bedroom apartment because there aren't all that many of them.
But you don't have to live in Manhattan, and you don't have to have a huge house, and 250K will take you pretty far. Other than real estate related issues, NYC isn't actually all that expensive.
But you don't have to live in Manhattan, and you don't have to have a huge house, and 250K will take you pretty far. Other than real estate related issues, NYC isn't actually all that expensive.
What Does The Fonzie Of Freedom Produce
John Cole must have gotten into my tubez as he stole a post I was going to do. I was also struck this morning by the contrast between 250K in New York is nothing and public employees who earn 100K are making obscene amounts of money.
But Then Homeless People Might Sleep On Them
Main reason why there are so few benches. The ones in the picture are perfectly fine, but I'm also quite sure they were designed to prevent homeless people from sleeping on them.
Fix It
The 1099 reporting requirements in the health care bill are absolutely insane, forcing businesses to track purchases by vendor, obtain tax ID information, and file 1099s to the IRS and vendor any time you do more than $600 worth of business with that vendor over the year. It'll be an absolute nightmare for any small business, for the tracking, the paperwork, and come tax season when you have to wait around for all those 1099s which may or may not show up because compliance will of course be spotty... because it's nuts.
Don't Forget Berkeley
Our current crop of elite journalists* are unable to perceive anything outside the world of elite families who have elite kids who go to elite schools and then elite colleges and proceed to elite unpaid internships at which point they inherit their parents' journalism and publishing jobs as Roderick Spode said they should. Is this worse than it used to be? Is it worse than it was 15 years ago?
*Of course not true of all of them, but seems to be common.
*Of course not true of all of them, but seems to be common.
The Worst Newspaper In the World
I saw this yesterday and didn't know what to say about it. I still don't, except that this paper can't die fast enough.
Happy B'Day!
I suppose if I fit in anywhere in this here crazy blogosphere I personally fit in with the Left Snarkosphere, and since SZ was one of the people who invented that, it's all her fault that you have to put up with me, neener.
Hers are the wisecracks that have inspired at least several dozen online smartasses, and while that may sound backhanded, it for me really isn't, because it's largely to SZ that I owe my own "oh just let it rip." So happy birthday, my friend I never met, and many happy returns.
Hers are the wisecracks that have inspired at least several dozen online smartasses, and while that may sound backhanded, it for me really isn't, because it's largely to SZ that I owe my own "oh just let it rip." So happy birthday, my friend I never met, and many happy returns.
Monday, September 13, 2010
And The Good News
My understanding is 'interim appointment' was part of law, so this isn't a standard 'recess appointment' type of thing. Warren.
Disability
While it of course benefits the truly disabled, it's also the only place to turn for older unemployed people with no realistic job prospects.
It isn't a generous program, and barriers for applicants are quite high. I don't mean to suggest fraud is a big problem, just more that there are people who if they could find the right job situation could in theory work, but it's hard enough finding a job at 57 if you're in perfect health, let alone if maybe you're in less than perfect condition.
It isn't a generous program, and barriers for applicants are quite high. I don't mean to suggest fraud is a big problem, just more that there are people who if they could find the right job situation could in theory work, but it's hard enough finding a job at 57 if you're in perfect health, let alone if maybe you're in less than perfect condition.
What It All Means
Not actually a fan of election season, and especially not a fan of the billion instant thumbsucker pieces about What It All Means once the votes, or some of them anyway, have been counted. No matter what happens this election, it will be proof that we are a center right nation, that voters rejected Obama's extreme liberalism, and that Obama should resign and, no matter what the constitution says about such things, appoint Lindsey Graham, John McCain, and Joe Lieberman to a ruling council. Turns on the tire swing for everybody!
I Haven't Looked But..
It wouldn't surprise me if Rauf saying "everything is on the table" will inspire conservatives to infer that everything includes TERRORISM.
If Only They'd Thought Of This Months Ago
I guess it isn't too late, but I really have just found it baffling that the Democrats willingly have been calling the "Bush tax increases," the ones he signed into law, the "Bush tax cuts," instead of trying to own their own tax cut package.
We'll Be Back Here Again
It's as if Newt spits in their faces repeatedly and each time he does it they're surprised.
Many conservatives don't really hide the fact that they're assholes with crazy vicious ideas. They don't have to, as the press pretends not to notice.
Many conservatives don't really hide the fact that they're assholes with crazy vicious ideas. They don't have to, as the press pretends not to notice.
Good Journalism
In an age where everyone with a comfortable office chair job thinks people retire too early, this is a useful corrective.
I get increasingly enraged by such Villagers who seem to be completely isolated from the realities of the world. Maybe you aren't friends with 60-year-old janitor, but can't you at least see him/her?
I get increasingly enraged by such Villagers who seem to be completely isolated from the realities of the world. Maybe you aren't friends with 60-year-old janitor, but can't you at least see him/her?
Everything That Is Wrong With The World
Apparently Bill Clinton is going to present something called the "Liberty Medal" to Tony Blair this evening here in my urban hellhole.
Maybe Something Different And New
I certainly don't claim to have my finger on the pulse of the American consumer, but recession issues aside I'm puzzled by the apparent belief by developers and retail experts that when people travel to tourist locations what they really want to do, most of all, is visit the same shops that they can visit in any high end mall all over the country. Maybe they're right. What do I know?
When the Pier Shops at Caesars opened on the Atlantic City Boardwalk in 2006, full of $1,000 pocketbooks, trendy restaurants and an $8 million light show, the upscale venue was riding a wave expected to bring billions in new development to the resort.
Then the economy crashed, and casinos experienced record losses as rollers high and low cut back on Atlantic City or spent their cash in Pennsylvania venues. Developers slowly backed away from major deals for new casinos.
...
Iovino hopes any new owner would address parking issues and not try to change the upscale atmosphere. The mall is home to Gucci, Tiffany, Louis Vuitton and several bars and restaurants, including two by Stephen Starr.
Oh Well
Work is suspended on new Hudson rail tunnel, raising possibility that it will never actually be completed.
Count Blackula
I remain quite depressed over the fact that if the day ends in 'y' we inevitably end up talking about whatever stupid shit was most recently hatched in the racist wingnut basement idea vat.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Virtually Speaking
Froomkin and Emptywheel tonight on the show, which ought to be cool. Starting live at 5:00 PM Pacific (8:00 Eastern, 1:00 AM BST), or streammed later.
Honesty
Goolsbee on This Week:
So...how about a more significant push?
“It's going to stay high. This recession is the deepest in our lifetimes, the deepest since 1929. If you take the people thrown out of work in the 1982 recession, the 1991 recession, the 2001 recession, not only is this bigger, this is bigger than all of those combined. So more than 8 million people lost their jobs. It's going to take a significant push on our part and time before that comes down. I don't anticipate it coming down rapidly.”
So...how about a more significant push?
The Mall Is Flat
Something awesome about billionaires wishing other people would sacrifice more.
His last call for other people to sacrifice more didn't work out so well.
His last call for other people to sacrifice more didn't work out so well.
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has Imam Feisal Abdul Rauf, Eboo Patel, Irshad Manji, and Richard Cizik. John McCain, Joe Lieberman, and Lindsey Graham all wonder if their phones are broken.
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Rudy 911 and Axelrod.
Face the Nation has Boehner, Keith Ellison, and Tom Kean.
Document the atrocities!
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Rudy 911 and Axelrod.
Face the Nation has Boehner, Keith Ellison, and Tom Kean.
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, September 11, 2010
The War At Home
Took about 2 days after 9/11 for conservatives to recognize who the real enemies were: dirty fucking hippies.
9/11 Day
A tragic day which brought out the worst in our country. Not right away, but once evil people saw opportunity to exploit it for their own dreams of destruction.
600 Executives
Companies have 600 executives?
After surging in size and profits during the post-9/11 era, the defense industry in metropolitan Washington is bracing for a major contraction and significant layoffs that economists said could produce a drag on the regional economy for years.
Already, there have been signs that announced cuts in national defense programs are having an impact: Six hundred executives at Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin are accepting the company's offer of a buyout. ITT Defense and Information Systems, based in McLean, this year combined seven business units into three and cut 1,000 workers. Hundreds were let go this year from Northrop Grumman operations in Maryland.
Dogtrack
"Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities."
Might as well be a thousand words. But...
---
Updating: This is Keynes' "animal spirits" explanation of economic activity. Y's post suggests this is a much better way to explain fluctuations in financial activity than the "efficient markets" story. Neither buying strategy should be dominant if financial markets are "efficient." That betting with the crowd is so dominant is....interesting.
Friday, September 10, 2010
In Case It Isn't Clear
I'd like unemployment to fall so that people have jobs and I'd like the economy not to suck so that we are not ruled by insane Republicans.
They Write Letters
In response to my linking to this:
It's true that to the extent that we believe the supply curve is much more elastic (increased demand will increase the quantity sold and not simply just jack up the price) at this point in time, either due to the depth of the recession or due to the different composition of industry now, we'd expect such policies to have a greater impact. We also might think that subsidizing R&D is in general good policy, as there are greater social returns to innovation than private ones. Still my comment was "terrible bang for the buck," and while I'm willing to believe maybe it's "not as terrible bang for the buck," it's hard to see how this is in any way "the best bang for the buck." I suspect that while the full expensing of capital investment will be a nice bonus for firms, it'll cost the government a lot in lost revenue for capital purchases that would have been made anyway. There's also a bonus effect of making capital cheaper relative to labor, perhaps causing some capital substitution down the line. And the R&D tax credit will tend to benefit larger firms who have people on staff whose job it is to figure out how to take advantage of tax credits.
So will it have an impact? Sure, but that doesn't mean it's anything close to the best possible policy. If it's political compromise, then fine, but it isn't being offered as that, so...
Duncan -
I saw you link to an argument that my dissertation fifteen years ago on investment subsidies implied that the administration’s recently-announced policy calling for temporary expensing of capital investment and making the R&D tax credit permanent would not work. While I admit to a small amount of joy that someone actually looked at my old research, I think the details in that work say differently. I started from the obvious point that subsidizing the demand for something when there are capacity constraints or a steeply rising supply curve, should tend to drive up prices in the short run rather than purely inducing more purchases. This was often true of capital goods like machinery in the data period I studied (which was from the 1960s to the 1980s).
But this effect centered on the idea that this should be in situations where there were constraints on supply in an industry. The findings in that paper showed quite clearly that the price increases were concentrated only among those products where there were significant backlogged orders/capacity was tight. In places of significant slack, there were no price effects. In a period like today, where capacity utilization in the industrial sector has suffered greatly (and where there are substantial numbers of unemployed R&D engineers), the findings in my old work would clearly indicate there would be little reason to expect the increased demand to go into higher prices. Investment subsidies at a time like this could generate significant amounts of investment.
-- Austan Goolsbee, Council of Economic Advisers
It's true that to the extent that we believe the supply curve is much more elastic (increased demand will increase the quantity sold and not simply just jack up the price) at this point in time, either due to the depth of the recession or due to the different composition of industry now, we'd expect such policies to have a greater impact. We also might think that subsidizing R&D is in general good policy, as there are greater social returns to innovation than private ones. Still my comment was "terrible bang for the buck," and while I'm willing to believe maybe it's "not as terrible bang for the buck," it's hard to see how this is in any way "the best bang for the buck." I suspect that while the full expensing of capital investment will be a nice bonus for firms, it'll cost the government a lot in lost revenue for capital purchases that would have been made anyway. There's also a bonus effect of making capital cheaper relative to labor, perhaps causing some capital substitution down the line. And the R&D tax credit will tend to benefit larger firms who have people on staff whose job it is to figure out how to take advantage of tax credits.
So will it have an impact? Sure, but that doesn't mean it's anything close to the best possible policy. If it's political compromise, then fine, but it isn't being offered as that, so...
Ending The Imperial Presidency
What it will take (and even then only temporarily) is a Republican Congress, a Democratic president, and a real or perceived abuse of power against some part of the conservative tribe.
Prescient Me
March, 2007:
Maybe if they'd listened to me we wouldn't have had all those problems all those years.
Joking aside, my real reason for looking that up is that blog time gets very confusing and sometimes I forget how far back it was obvious that the housing situation was going to be a disaster. Quite awhile.
Essentially you need to make it possible for people to refinance, both by getting rid of prepayment penalties and strongly "encouraging" lenders who gave out a bunch of mortages they shouldn't have to renegotiate the terms in order to make repayment more realistic.
Maybe if they'd listened to me we wouldn't have had all those problems all those years.
Joking aside, my real reason for looking that up is that blog time gets very confusing and sometimes I forget how far back it was obvious that the housing situation was going to be a disaster. Quite awhile.
Nobody Is Ever Responsible
And no one will be held accountable.
Aside from the accountability/responsibility issue, it's also a wee reminder that our infrastructure is old and crumbling, and the impacts of that can range from troubling to catastrophic...
According to residents, the tragic disaster may have been preventable.
San Mateo Assemblyman Jerry Hill said he was "outraged" to learn that some residents had complained to PG&E about gas leaks in the neighborhood "for up to three weeks" before the explosion.
Hill said the pipe that ruptured was installed in 1948.
Aside from the accountability/responsibility issue, it's also a wee reminder that our infrastructure is old and crumbling, and the impacts of that can range from troubling to catastrophic...
I Know Chris Hayes Is There
Occasionally it'd be nice if there were some questions marginally from "The Left." Could ask about why HAMP was such a disaster, for example. Maybe about the DADT court ruling. Or maybe about assassinations and indefinite detentions.
...Helene Cooper had decent question about corruption in Afghanistan.
...Compton asks about Guantanamo not closing.
...Helene Cooper had decent question about corruption in Afghanistan.
...Compton asks about Guantanamo not closing.
I've Said It Before
But I have no idea why we're talking about the "Bush tax cuts" instead of talking about how Bush's tax cuts are expiring as he intended, and meet the new and improved "Obama tax cuts."
An Excercise In Balance
I think I've mostly avoided talking about the wannabe Koran burner, but it's worth pointing out that the whole thing was just another exercise in false balance by our idiot media. On one hand we have mooooslims doing something "provacative" with that community center thingy, so on the other hand we have a guy burning Korans. That these things are not the same, and that they've established that any random nutcase can make himself front page news for no good reason, will likely not occur to anybody.
HAMP'd
This is a story in which the bank admits they screwed up, but it's the kind of screwup which is enabled by the fact that HAMP encourages homeowners to continue making payments while banks decide how best to screw them.
It's thoroughly depressing.
It's thoroughly depressing.
Who Would Jesus Bomb
I like that he's "self-described."
A Concord man was charged with describing how to make explosives, in an effort to bomb an abortion clinic, after FBI agents found instructions on the man's Facebook page and caught him in a sting, officials said Thursday.
Justin Carl Moose, 26, is a self-described "extremist, radical" and the "Christian counterpart of Osama bin Laden," according to an affidavit filed by FBI agents. Agents arrested Moose, who lives in a northwest Concord neighborhood, on Tuesday.
Nobdy Could Have Predicted
That energy "deregulation" was just a scam to enrich monopolists and that actual competition would never appear.
Thursday, September 09, 2010
Slow Progress
Gotta cheer the good news.
RIVERSIDE, Calif. -- A federal judge in Southern California has declared the U.S. military's ban on openly gay service members unconstitutional.
U.S. District Judge Virginia Phillips on Thursday granted a request for an injunction halting the government's "don't ask, don't tell" policy for gays in the military.
Curious
Good for Voinovich, but I'm also a bit curious about why I don't ever remember hearing him be one of those reasonable Republicans the Obama administration was trying to reach out to. He stepped up a couple of times during the Bush years.
Driving Is Really Dangerous
I know for lots of people getting around by any means other than automobile for most purposes is basically unfathomable, but it still amazes me that we collectively yawn at the massive number of annual automobile deaths. They continue to decline, which is good news of course, but it's still a lot of people.
All We Need To Do Is Anything
Of course there are better and worse plans, and I'm not especially enamored with parts of this, but what we need are people who recognize that 9.6% unemployment is a problem and it's their job to fix it.
Rigged Game
I do not think I am going out on a limb in predicting that there will never be any consequences for Bob Rubin ever.
That Nasty Deficit
So the "centrist" Dems who are usually given lots of friendly ink over the endless kvetching about the deficit are going to prove, for the trillionth time, that they don't actually care about the deficit but instead only care about marginal tax rates for rich people.
That won't stop reporters from writing about their "deficit concerns," though with any luck they'll all be chucked out of their jobs.
That won't stop reporters from writing about their "deficit concerns," though with any luck they'll all be chucked out of their jobs.
Our Genius Overlords
OECD in May:
OECD now:
Our business discourse is so absurd. "Reassure investors."
RATE RECOMMENDATIONS:
UNITED STATES:
In the United States, where some long-term measures of inflation expectations have increased and the labour market has stabilised earlier than expected, the start of normalisation should not be delayed beyond the last quarter of 2010. Policy interest rates should be well above half-way to neutral by end-2011, but the path of convergence to full normalisation would have to accelerate if long-term inflation expectations were to drift up further.
OECD now:
The global economic recovery is proving slower than projected and policy makers may need to extend or bolster stimulus programs to support it, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
...
If the slowdown is temporary, then policy makers should postpone the withdrawal of monetary support for a few months, while maintaining plans to cut fiscal deficits to reassure investors, the OECD said. If growth is threatened for longer, then central banks may need to buy assets and commit to near- zero interest rates for a long period and governments may need to delay budget cuts, it said.
Our business discourse is so absurd. "Reassure investors."
Is That Really So Many?
My local newspaper is trying to make a big deal out of the fact there was a 1.5% absentee rate for teachers on the first day of school. That doesn't sound so bad to me.
Hopey Changey
I admit to just feeling completely powerless over the issues that are Glennzilla's main beat, as the Obama administration continues with the worst of the Bush administration claims on executive power and torture/assassination. This, it must be said, has nothing to do with the power of President Snowe.
Deep Night Thought
I'm very grateful that the Guardians of Our Elite Discourse have decided to listen carefully to Pam Geller. They are however missing out on a good thing in regards to Pastor Grant Swank. I could hook them up. Pastor Swank = Great Copy.
Wednesday, September 08, 2010
The View From TheMineapolis Fed
The problem is structural, nothing we can do, call us in a few years, naptime.
Oh well.
This estimate is based on a rather aggregative view of the labor market. It is important to dig deeper to get a better understanding of the problem, and there is a considerable amount of research under way exploring the quantitative importance of the various forms of mismatch. For example, the International Monetary Fund has recently released a special study based on a new state-by-state measure of the gap between demand and supply for workers with different levels of educational attainment. The study examines the impact of this variable and the foreclosure rate on state-level unemployment. It estimates that 1.5 percentage points of the national unemployment rate is due to these two sources and their interaction. Thus, according to this study, these two types of mismatch alone can account for a significant fraction of my estimate of 2.5 percentage points.
Good economic policy is about using the right tool for the problem at hand. The mismatch problems in the labor market do not strike me as readily amenable to the kinds of monetary policy tools currently available to the Fed.
Oh well.
Econ 101 Makes You Stupid
It is indeed a problem. Just to add to the linked post a bit, in normal situations increased demand for shovels would lead to new entrants into the shovel manufacturing and distributing businesses, causing there to be more shovels available for all. But in snow storm crisis, there isn't actually going to be time for new shovels to appear in the marketplace. Instead, shovel sellers will simply make more money, and rich people will be more likely than poor people to obtain needed shovels, even though poor people might not just shovel their own driveways but also might get a bit entrepreneurial and sell their driveway shoveling services to their neighbors. As James says, the point isn't that there's necessarily a perfect rationing mechanism, just that in this case there's no particular reason to think that price is the best one. Under certain conditions, price is a good rationing mechanism, but not all.
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