A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.Sounds bad for Democrats!
Democrats continue to show resilience in places where abortion is still high on the minds of voters, and where popular incumbents are on the ballot. Indeed, the Democrats were still tied or ahead in all four districts — three of which were carried by Mr. Biden in 2020. But the party’s slim majority — control could flip if just five seats change hands — demands that it essentially run the table everywhere, at a moment when the economy has emerged as the driving issue in all but the country’s wealthier enclaves.Wait, What? Computer, enhance:
So he had some vibes, the polls didn't agree with the vibes, so he wrote up the vibes anyway.Obviously, four districts can't say a ton about the battle for the House.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 28, 2022
But on balance, the polls are better for Democrats than I would have guessed given our national polling (yes, the methodology is identical), esp in KS-03 -- which feels like a possible outlier