Monday, August 26, 2002

While we're on dumb post 9-11 predictions.


THE ANTHRAX SCARE: This is actually probably good news. Let me explain. First, it appears to have been sent in the mail, an idiotic method for spreading anthrax, suggesting that they didn't have a better one. Second, it appears that it was probably sent by the now-dead 19. That suggests that Al-Qaeda doesn't have a lot of resources in the States. Combining operations like that is dangerous, and ordinarily you wouldn't do it if you didn't have to -- had anyone caught on to the anthrax ploy, which was a sideshow, the whole operation could have been blown. So there are only two reasons why you might combine these operations: (1) you're stupid; and (2) you don't have enough resources to do it any other way. I'm betting on (2), because while these guys are stupid in the larger sense -- I guarantee, the end result of this won't be anything the Ladenites like -- they aren't stupid in the tactical or operational sense.



Hey, we all make mistakes.**


** I'm doing this to parody Kaus, not actually to take a swipe at the Instaman, although the latter is always fun too.