Capital Gang Predictions, Dec. 2002

And they pay these people?

And now our predictions for 2003.

First, the biggest crisis next year.

Bob Novak.

NOVAK: Assuming that we are going to attack Iraq, the absolute revulsion in Islam. The whole world, Islamic world all around the globe, what the reaction is against the West and the U.S.

O'BEIRNE: Mark Russell.

RUSSELL: Well, there's this whole thing surrounding Korea, Kate. Now, Bob Novak fought the Korean War to defend South Korea from North Korea, making South Korea what it is today, the country we buy American flags from, because they're cheaper than the ones made in China.

O'BEIRNE: Your prediction for the biggest crisis, Margaret?

CARLSON: Well, I think Iraq and North Korea will be big foreign policy crises. The biggest domestic crisis will be a political one, it will be Al Sharpton running for president. He will be more trouble to Democrats than Trent Lott was to Republicans, and Democrats will not be able to get rid of him, however.

RUSSELL: You know, when he was in India recently, he was the first showboat to go down the Ganges River?

CARLSON: And Democrats would like to keep him there.

O'BEIRNE: In Austin, Texas, Mark Shields, your biggest crisis.

SHIELDS: Biggest crisis, Kate, just to let the record show that Mark Russell, he talked about Korea, Mark Russell dodged the military draft. How did he do it? He did it my joining the United States Marine Corps. That's how clever and true this guy is.

But I do, I do want to say...

RUSSELL: And like Mark Shields, we both saw combat in Tijuana.

SHIELDS: That's right. Hey, thank God for penicillin, Mark.

But let's get one thing straight. The biggest crisis, Bob Novak has put his finger on it, is going to be the Middle East. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict will look like a lovers' spat at the end of this year, I'm fearful.

O'BEIRNE: I predict the biggest crisis next year will be the axis of evil. When George Bush so labeled those three countries in January, his critics thought it was random and overly dramatic, and now we're seeing the triple threat, possibly nuclear, of North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. He was awfully prescient.

Next, what will this prescient president's approval ratings be one year from now, December 2003, Mark?

RUSSELL: OK, what is it now?

O'BEIRNE: Low 60s, mid-60s.

RUSSELL: OK, I really predict that in a year from now, it will be about the same, unless, God forbid, al Qaeda hits us again, at which time Bush's ratings go back to 92.

O'BEIRNE: Margaret Carlson, where will he be?

CARLSON: Yes, I say up to 92, at least higher, if we're in Iraq and it's successful. If, however, it's a quagmire, low 40s.

O'BEIRNE: In Austin, Mark Shields.

SHIELDS: Kate, proving that this prescient president cannot defy the laws of gravity perpetually, his -- the president's job rating December of 2003 will be 49 percent favorable.

O'BEIRNE: Huh. Bob, I am more optimistic on the president's behalf than Mark. I give him a precise 61 a year from now. And what is your prediction?

NOVAK: I'm assuming there'll be a war, and the war will be over and won, and he'll start slipping. He'll be around 53 percent. Third year is a bad year for a president. RUSSELL: Well, if the war's completely successful, it'll be Bush's war. If it is completely unsuccessful, it'll be Clinton's war.

O'BEIRNE: Margaret Carlson, who will lead the Democratic presidential polls one year from now, December 2003?

CARLSON: I predict that Senator Lieberman will get the Gore vote without being Gore. He will have the family values licked against the Republicans. He will have homeland security locked up, given that it was his bill. And he's in the Mideast right now, and I think he will have the Jewish vote.

So I give him the Democratic base and the lead out of the gate.

O'BEIRNE: Joe Lieberman?

In Austin, Mark Shields, who's your pick for the top Democratic in a year?

SHIELDS: Kate, I'll tell you, because we rerun the last election, the premium will be upon who -- which Democrat can emerge as unorthodox, as the John McCain of 2003? And I'm going to predict an unorthodox selection, and that is Dick Gephardt, the House Democratic leader, understands this is his last, best, and only chance, and he better say something bold and do something daring.

O'BEIRNE: I'm going to guess that a year from now, we would have moved beyond name recognition, and one of the president's sharpest critics on foreign and defense policy's going to be John Kerry, and I think that'll be popular with the base. I'll pick John Kerry.

Bob?

NOVAK: I will, I will too, but for a different reason. I think that he has two people's votes. He has his votes, and he has Bob Kerrey's votes, and you add that up, and he'll be in front.