For some time now the media has made this a "Dean vs. Clark" race. It isn't entirely clear why. Dean is obviously the frontrunner - both in national poll performance and more importantly in polls of states with early primaries. But, if we need to pick a number two based on available poll numbers, who should it be?
Judging by national poll numbers it's a tossup between Clark and Lieberman, with Lieberman probably having a slight edge (and Gephardt not far behind).
Moving to the state polls (slogging through Kos's archives for all of these), what do we see? Clark's out of Iowa (what was he thinking?), and it has Dean and Gephardt in the #1 and #2 spots.
Moving onto New Hampshire, we currently have Dean and Kerry in the #1 and #2 spots.
Then, onward to Feb. 3 - Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
Arizona has Dean ahead, and Clark second but statistically tied with 3 others in this poll, though this one makes it a Dean/Clark close race.The only poll of Delaware was taken in October, and it has Lieberman coming out ahead.
South Carolina has Dean first with Clark, Sharpton, and Edwards basically tied for second in that poll, and a closer Dean/Clark race in this poll.
Oklahoma has Clark winning.
Some later polls:
Wisconsin has Dean ahead, with Lieberman and Clark basically tied for second.
Pennsylvania (very late so probably irrelevant) has Dean first, with Lieberman second.
Anyway, I'm tired of looking up more numbers. But, the point is that there's really no evidence that any particular candidate has become the "anti-Dean" candidate.
