MoDo Prediction

Lerxst suggests MoDo will do the obvious - Kerry and Botox.

I suggest MoDo will spend another lonely night wondering why Michael Douglas abandoned her.

Judy, Judy, Judy

Katha Pollitt has a great column.

Lies

Bush is still saying that the deficit will be cut in half in five years if congress follows his plan. I'm not going to revisit the figures, but needless to say this is a total lie. Perhaps the press should start asking where these numbers are coming from, aside from out of Karl Rove's ass.


...perhaps I spoke a little to soon. Bush has been saying this all week, and now the new plan is being presented. We'll have to wait on the actual numbers.

...here they're claiming it's the case, but they haven't released the details of unspecified cuts in over 60 programs.

Add to the Big Mo

Imagine the gnashing of teeth when a DEMOCRAT beats a REPUBLICAN in a RED STATE in a special election. Drop a few nickles into my sponsor Ben Chandler's contribution box. Add $.18 so they know it comes from my readers. You can contribute here.

3 Deadliest Months in a Row

November, December, and January were the 3 deadliest months in Iraq since the "end of major combat operations." Things are not getting better for our military.

The Google Search to End All Google Searches

Here.


From Tom Tomorrow.

(Maybe someone can explain to me how weapons of mass destruction aren't an "imminent threat.")

Holocaust Denial

Tbogg catches the Road Warrior in a bit of Holocaust Denial. He's slick. He first says he knows holocaust survivors. You know, people who LIVED. Then, he says that "some" of the people who died were "Jews in concentration camps." Then he just chalks it all up to war being hell. Okay.

The follow up question, should a reporter get near him again, should be "Mr. Gibson, how many Jews do you think were exterminated by the Nazis during World War II?"

"Kerry and Botox"

So, the volume's off, but the caption on screen at CNN was "Kerry and Botox - he denies using it." So, let's get this straight - the eggman can accuse anybody of anything, and soon the accusation and denial will appear on CNN.

Tomorrow, I look forward to:

"Kerry and Child Molestation - He Denies It."

Then we should be seeing:

"Kerry and Cannibalism - He Denies It."

etc....

Diebold

You know, it's pretty goddamn scary that it's even easier to hack these machines than I thought.

And I better not hear anyone say "conspiracy theory." Election fraud has always been with us - now it's just simple and undetectable.

The paper whitewashes it a bit. Here's a full report.

Pruden

Nick over at TAPPED notices just how dishonest Wes Pruden and his newspaper are. Oh, and he also works for a man who looks forward to genocide against gays and Jews. Oh, and one of his assistant editors is a man who is an open advocate of Southern Secession and who believes that the murder of Emmett Till wasn't really a racist act.

WMDRPA

Heard about this one?

Did you know that a Middle Easterner residing in South Africa has been picked up on federal charges of conspiring to send 200 American-made nuclear weapons detonators to Pakistan?

Me neither. It apparently warranted 3 paragraphs on A12.

Red vs. Blue

I wrote about this a long long long time ago, but Daniel Pink reminds us in the NYT that the "red states" are by and large the ones who are sucking on the federal government's tit.

The wacky folks at the right wing Tax Foundation are kind enough to provide us with this information every year.


...California is one of the worst off. And, as someone pointed out fairly recently, they and other states could find ways to close the gap simply by revamping their tax codes. Specifically, shifting government revenues towards state income taxes which are deductible from federal taxes and away from sales taxes, user fees, property taxes, etc...

Another Theory Shot

After we captured Saddam there were numerous trolls claiming that since the capture there were fewer soldiers being killed. Howard Dean was exorciated for saying that Americans were not safer after Saddam's capture, even though he meant Americans In America, because American soldiers (not all of whom are American) were "of course" now safer. Oops.

US combat deaths in Iraq have risen sharply during January despite a drop in the number of attacks and the capture of former dictator Saddam Hussein over a month ago.

As of Thursday, 33 American soldiers and one civilian had been killed by hostile fire during the month. That compares with 24 US combat deaths in December, and a total of 32 coalition combat deaths.

The figures appear to show that the security situation in Iraq is not improving, contrary to earlier claims from the US military and politicians.

Look, I wish I'd occasionally be wrong about these things. But, you know what? The situation isn't good. And, no amount of "CLAP LOUDER!" is going to make it any better. It may get better. I doubt it. Either way, the fact that I'm insufficiently enthusiastic about things which aren't true is going to have little impact..

One rather sad thing is that I have to admit that it's going to be a hell of a lot easier for a second Bush administration to get us the hell out of there than for a Democratic administration to do so. I think a Democratic administration would be preferable, all things considered, but the Republicans will turn the whole thing into a political nightmare.

Absentee Ballots

Buzz over at the Dean blog is that a large number of absentee ballots have been cast in NM and AZ. Obviously this is a bit of optimism on their part, but more generally I really really don't like the proliferation of easy vote-by-mail. I know many disagree with me on this subject, but a campaign has a certain rhythm to it and voting weeks in advance tends to undercut that. I mean, what if, say, Rick Santorum were in a primary race for a senate seat and the Santorum-on-Dog pictures didn't come out until after thousands of people had already cast their votes?

...note, I'm not coming out against all absentee balloting. But, it used to be that the norm was that you had to go through the trouble of signing an affadavit swearing that you were going to be unable to go to the polls for one of the acceptable reasons. I'm all for making going to vote at the polls easier, but I'm really not for the "everyone vote by internet or mail if they want to" schemes.

Steve G.

A troll, in true form, keeps posting that Steve Gilliard has died. There is no reason to think this information is correct. Carry on, knowing its true depravity.

Irony Lives

Students stopped from performing anti-totalitarianist play because in it they cut up a flag. You just can't make this stuff up.

It was enough to disqualify Archbishop McCarthy High students from a competition early this week for their performance of The Children's Story. In the play, first published in 1963 by Shogun author James Clavell, third-graders in a classroom in a United States that has been defeated by a powerful enemy, presumably Communist, cut the flag into pieces. Their new teacher tells them if the flag is so good, everyone should get a piece and tells them to hand out the shreds. It's a message about the dangers of mindless political indoctrination

"The play is actually pro-American," said Erin Fragetta, 15, a sophomore at the southwest Broward County school who worked on the production. "It was intended to be an anti-communist message, and the judges just turned it around on us."

...

After receiving complaints about the flag cutting, co-chairman Melody Wicht, who teaches drama at Pembroke Pines Charter High, disqualified the McArthur team.

"Some people came to me after the play and complained about the performance," Wicht said. "So I looked into it."

Wicht said she based her decision on Florida Statute 876.52, which says "Whoever publicly mutilates, defaces or tramples with intent to insult any flag ... of the United States shall be guilty of a misdemeanor of the first degree."

...

"For 10 years it's been clear that these flag desecration statutes are unconstitutional," said Bruce Rogow, a Nova Southeastern University law professor specializing in constitutional law and First Amendment rights. "What's especially ironic is that this is a pro-democracy, anti-totalitarianism play, and yet they're punished for using the flag as an example of what shouldn't be done in a totalitarian society."

Rogow cited the 1990 U.S. Supreme Court decision that struck down such a statute in the case of Texas vs. Johnson.

Conservative Justice Antonin Scalia wrote in the court's opinion that flag desecration is the ultimate expression of disagreement in a democracy."

Say Hello to My New Sponsor

The campaign of Ben Chandler for Congress. He's running in the 6th District special election in Kentucky which is... soon! February 17!. The latest poll has him ahead of his challenger, so go donate a few bucks for the cause! Add $.18 to your donation so they know it comes from my readers.


...on a related note, Jerome Armstrong has a post up about campaigns and internet advertising. I don't claim to know anything about this subject, really, except for the fact that advertising on blogs is dirt cheap compared to TV, print, radio, and on "major media" websites. And, at least for fundraising purposes it's hard to imagine that it isn't more cost effective than those other mediums. Well, I hope so anyway. Donate and prove me right! Picking up this seat would help swing a bit of the "Big Mo" our way.

The Hutton Report

I'm not going to bother parsing this, but I do have this observation. I always assumed Hutton would condemn the BBC and exonerate the Blair government. The BBC's reporter did screw up somewhat - there's no question of that (though, frankly, it wasn't exactly a Gerth-level screwup). And, Blair made a genius pre-emptive strike when he promised to resign if Hutton came out against him - essentially giving Hutton the power to bring a government down.

But, the report was such a ridiculous whitewash that it oddly ends up condemning Blair. A "naughty naughty BBC" combined with a "yes, mistakes we're made, but these things happen" with respect to Blair would have preserved the status quo and no one could have found too much fault with it. But, Hutton has tried to play us all for fools and destroyed his own reputation in the process.

International Brain Drain

We're pretty lucky that Europe's university system has, thus far, been pretty incestuous and underfunded. That's been changing - and as this Washington Monthly article points out, there's a real risk. For a long time a big chunk of the best and the brighest - in all fields - have come to the US. With the rising xenophobia, increasingly intolerant immigration policies, and a messed up health care, that could turn around.

Predictions

Brokaw's craptacular debate moderation tonight will be even worse than Hume's.

If the polls are close in the general election, there will be at least one major assassination attempt against the Dem. nominee.

The end of Friends ensures that all major networks will produce at least 2 Friends-clone sitcoms for next year.

Threats

I don't even know why we're still having this conversation, really. When the administration says a guy with a moustache who doesn't like us much has weapons of mass destruction, I consider that to be an imminent, immediate, clear and present, Oh Shit We're All Going to Die, threat. Unless, of course, the weapons don't really provide very massive destruction in which case they aren't really WMDs then are they...


But, for the record, the CAP has provided this list for us:

"There's no question that Iraq was a threat to the people of the United States."

- White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan, 8/26/03



"We ended the threat from Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction."

- President Bush, 7/17/03



Iraq was "the most dangerous threat of our time."

- White House spokesman Scott McClellan, 7/17/03



"Saddam Hussein is no longer a threat to the United States because we removed him, but he was a threat...He was a threat. He's not a threat now."

- President Bush, 7/2/03



"Absolutely."

- White House spokesman Ari Fleischer answering whether Iraq was an "imminent threat," 5/7/03



"We gave our word that the threat from Iraq would be ended."

- President Bush 4/24/03



"The threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction will be removed."

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 3/25/03



"It is only a matter of time before the Iraqi regime is destroyed and its threat to the region and the world is ended."

- Pentagon spokeswoman Victoria Clarke, 3/22/03



"The people of the United States and our friends and allies will not live at the mercy of an outlaw regime that threatens the peace with weapons of mass murder."

- President Bush, 3/19/03



"The dictator of Iraq and his weapons of mass destruction are a threat to the security of free nations."

- President Bush, 3/16/03



"This is about imminent threat."

- White House spokesman Scott McClellan, 2/10/03



Iraq is "a serious threat to our country, to our friends and to our allies."

- Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/31/03



Iraq poses "terrible threats to the civilized world."

- Vice President Dick Cheney, 1/30/03



Iraq "threatens the United States of America."

- Vice President Cheney, 1/30/03



"Iraq poses a serious and mounting threat to our country. His regime has the design for a nuclear weapon, was working on several different methods of enriching uranium, and recently was discovered seeking significant quantities of uranium from Africa."

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 1/29/03



"Saddam Hussein possesses chemical and biological weapons. Iraq poses a threat to the security of our people and to the stability of the world that is distinct from any other. It's a danger to its neighbors, to the United States, to the Middle East and to the international peace and stability. It's a danger we cannot ignore. Iraq and North Korea are both repressive dictatorships to be sure and both pose threats. But Iraq is unique. In both word and deed, Iraq has demonstrated that it is seeking the means to strike the United States and our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction."

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 1/20/03



"The Iraqi regime is a threat to any American. They not only have weapons of mass destruction, they used weapons of mass destruction...That's why I say Iraq is a threat, a real threat."

- President Bush, 1/3/03



"The world is also uniting to answer the unique and urgent threat posed by Iraq whose dictator has already used weapons of mass destruction to kill thousands."

- President Bush, 11/23/02



"I would look you in the eye and I would say, go back before September 11 and ask yourself this question: Was the attack that took place on September 11 an imminent threat the month before or two months before or three months before or six months before? When did the attack on September 11 become an imminent threat? Now, transport yourself forward a year, two years or a week or a month...So the question is, when is it such an immediate threat that you must do something?"

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 11/14/02



"Saddam Hussein is a threat to America."

- President Bush, 11/3/02



"I see a significant threat to the security of the United States in Iraq."

- President Bush, 11/1/02





"There is real threat, in my judgment, a real and dangerous threat to American in Iraq in the form of Saddam Hussein."

- President Bush, 10/28/02



"The Iraqi regime is a serious and growing threat to peace."

- President Bush, 10/16/02



"There are many dangers in the world, the threat from Iraq stands alone because it gathers the most serious dangers of our age in one place. Iraq could decide on any given day to provide a biological or chemical weapon to a terrorist group or individual terrorists."

- President Bush, 10/7/02



"The Iraqi regime is a threat of unique urgency."

- President Bush, 10/2/02



"There's a grave threat in Iraq. There just is."

- President Bush, 10/2/02



"This man poses a much graver threat than anybody could have possibly imagined."

- President Bush, 9/26/02



"No terrorist state poses a greater or more immediate threat to the security of our people and the stability of the world than the regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq."

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 9/19/02



"Some have argued that the nuclear threat from Iraq is not imminent - that Saddam is at least 5-7 years away from having nuclear weapons. I would not be so certain. And we should be just as concerned about the immediate threat from biological weapons. Iraq has these weapons."

- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, 9/18/02



"Iraq is busy enhancing its capabilities in the field of chemical and biological agents, and they continue to pursue an aggressive nuclear weapons program. These are offensive weapons for the purpose of inflicting death on a massive scale, developed so that Saddam Hussein can hold the threat over the head of any one he chooses. What we must not do in the face of this mortal threat is to give in to wishful thinking or to willful blindness."

- Vice President Dick Cheney, 8/29/02

Dangerous Job

More than 300 Iraqi cops have been killed since May.

Cue John Lott telling us why this is good news.

Jonah Goldberg - Hand Iraq to the UN

Well, he didn't say this recently of course, but way back when he said this:

So here's the deal: George Bush ? who has rightly been much more reluctant than Tony Blair to toss the U.N. a bone when it comes to the potentially lucrative prospect of rebuilding Iraq ? should make it known that if Coalition forces find no Iraqi WMD while we're in there, we will defer to the U.N. on how to run postwar Iraq...I am still confident we will find plenty of such weapons ? Saddam didn't buy those chemical suits and atropine injectors because Glamour magazine says they're all the rage...

Donate to Your Favorite Candidate Day

John Kerry.

Howard Dean.

John Edwards.

Wesley Clark.

Undecided? Give to the DNC.


I know this is the time in the primary season where people start thinking that contributing is pointless, but this primary isn't over. Ever Dem. ad (good ones, anyway) that shows up on TV is more media coverage about the fact that Democrats aren't all Stalin-loving satanists. Every campaign rally means friendly local news coverage. This primary isn't going to be over right away, and the more chances that the candidates have to get their messages out the better.

Perle Supports Terrorists

I have no idea if the organizations whose funds we've frozen are really "terrorist supporters," but if they aren't we shouldn't be freezing their assets, and if we do freeze their assets a DPB board member shouldn't be attending their events.

FFFFFFF

Pensions underfunded? Why, go ahead and underfund them even more! Fuckheads. And, yes, that includes you too Ted Kennedy.

Wingnuttery

Apparently rich people in America would prefer to be slaves in the 1850s. I'll buy one.

More Gifts For Steve

Here's a more recent wish list for Steve G.

Trippi's Out

As you all know. Discuss.

Senator Barney Frank

What happens if Kerry resigns from his Senate seat? I was assuming that the governor would appoint a replacement. Eric Alterman implies that the Mass. legislature plays a role. Anyone know?

No Box Cutters

I'm not surprised. It was one of those little details which sounded like it emerged from a PR department.
I suppose if the White House weren't doing everything they could to prevent the 9/11 commission from doing its job we could find out what really happened.

Polls

Kos has the most recent poll numbers. Anyway, it's way too early to count any of the 4 out (that Joementum only goes one way). I retract what I said about Clark being "wounded" last night. He's as in as much as Edwards is. I reject all claims that this is over. I reject that any candidate "has to win" any particular state at any particular time, and I also think wondering out loud about a possible brokered convention is silly.

We've had 2 of 50 primaries...

...I'd say the Poor Man's nomination odds are roughly right.

Email

My outgoing mailserver is clogged, presumably due to the worm, so I'll be responding to an even smaller percentage of email than I normally do...

The Crazies Have Taken Over

Brad DeLong takes a look at a WaPo editorial which really is unbelievable. My brain froze up when I read it yesterday.

Moving Forward

The real question now is how comfortable - and aggressive - will the other Dem campaigns be about being the "anti-Kerry?"

Who's Crazy?

Joe Conason lets us know:

The president was fantasizing again this afternoon about the circumstances that led to war -- and if his remarks at his press conference with the Polish president are to be taken seriously, he also seems badly confused about his Iraqi timeline. This was Bush's first attempt to answer the damning findings of David Kay, departing director of the Iraq Survey Group. It didn't go well, although almost everyone in the White House press corps pretended not to notice.

So removed from reality is the president that it seems worthwhile to unpack two exchanges with reporters who asked about Kay's admission that he expects no weapons of mass destruction to be found in Iraq.

...

Leaving aside those incoherent references to "programs" and what the world obviously "felt," what is most notable in Bush's answer is that he again said Saddam "did not let us in." This is the second time he has made this weird statement, as if Hans Blix and UNMOVIC had never existed, nor conducted the most intrusive weapons inspections ever done in Iraq. (The first time was last July, when Bush said, in the presence of an astonished Kofi Annan: "And we gave [Saddam] a chance to allow the inspectors in, and he wouldn't let them in.")

How dare the press mock Howard Dean when they listen respectfully to this arrant lunacy?

Someday even Bush may learn to cope with the reality of the weapons of mass disappearance. He and his friends will no doubt remind us, however, that liberating the Iraqis from Saddam's evil oppression justifies itself, even though Iraq posed no military threat to us or anyone else. That's an argument of dubious legality -- and Ken Roth disposes of it in Human Rights Watch's annual report:

Gifts for an Ill Blogger

As most of you probably know, Steve Gilliard just had surgery for a heart valve infection. The good news is that he made it through surgery.

His Amazon Wish list is here. Send him a bunch of gifts so when he gets home he has some toys to play with. And, hey, if you want to buy him something that isn't on the list you can always add that to your shopping cart too.

The Big Mo

No one can argue that two wins gives Kerry momentum. But, that's partially because the press will run with it. The most recent projection gives Kerry +13 delegates to Dean's +9 from New Hampshire.

2161 are needed to win.


The Big Mo is real, but this race ain't over.

The Primary Paradox

Big Media Matt makes yet another astute Kinsley-esque observation.

The Script

Just now Jeff Greenfield was on. For about an hour he'd been prepping for his great show - to prove that Kerry had won "beer country" and that Dean had won "wine country," whatever the hell those are. But, then the map pops up and doesn't support his thesis at all so he just degenerated into gibberish.

But, you gotta love a guy who made it into Doonesbury 33 years ago.

Primary Thoughts

Well, I'm not going to pat myself on the back for correct predictions because obviously at some point I changed them, but... My thinking 9 months or so ago was that if not for Howard Dean the primary was going to be dull dull dull and the Dems would be DOA. Dean went out in front and made it "okay" to actually say nasty things about Dear Leader, something the rest of them were scared to do. I figured Dean would continue to force the other candidates to actually come up with a message and distinguish themselves from the Republicans... and that eventually Kerry would be The Man. I was one of the last few to say that Kerry still had a chance before everyone, including me, declared him DOA. It turns out I was right - I just thought Kerry would figure things out by November or December. I didn't think it would take until 3 days before the Iowa Caucus. But, hey, he managed it - good for him. I'm less high on a Kerry candidacy than I once was, but maybe he's found the fire in the belly I've been worried that he lacked.

But, I think people who are writing Dean's obituary yet again are dead wrong. Sure, there were expectations that he could make it a *close* second, but he'll come away with a *solid* second. The difference, while important, is less important than many are saying. Dean has the money.

Similarly, I think it's completely wrong to count Edwards out. To me, Clark's looking pretty wounded, but I could be wrong.

But, everythings changes now. No more months and weeks of on the ground campaigning. There isn't time. It's going to be a combination of momentum, ads, and organizations on the ground. One week from today there are seven primaries. There's a good chance Edwards will take South Carolina. Clark's still got a good chance in Oklahoma. Clark has a good chance in Arizona, and the big prize - Missouri - is probably up in the air. Delaware and New Mexico are probably up for grab also.


How long before Clinton won his first primary in 1992? Who was the presumed nominee at this point? A certain Senator from Mass. if I remember correctly...



...a rather odd thing is the number of people who voted in the Republican primary, but wrote in the names of Democrats...



...along those lines, it's a bit weird listening to Carville and Begala write Dean's obituary. Yeah, I know they've been anti-Dean from the beginning, but don't they remember 1992? I don't remember President Tsongas...

Results

You can find them here. Willis is blogging it.

Draw it Out

I used to think that the best thing for the Dems would be for the primary to be effectively decided as early as possible. But, I'm starting to think that Digby's right. In 3 years of the bunnypants regime, the Democrats have basically gotten zero media coverage. They'd call press conferences and no one would show up. For about 18 months after 9/11, CNN would run every single speech Bush gave live without commercials. Now the Dems are getting a lot of media coverage. It isn't all good media coverage, but as they say any publicity is good.

Roll the Tape

Let's hope there's video of Novakula attacking someone.

Nasty Tactics

We'll probably never know who to pin this on but this is disgusting:

He did not specify tactics but his spokesman, Jay Carson, said Dean supporters are getting phone calls criticizing Dean for, among other things, claiming to be a Christian when his wife and children are Jewish.

Welcome to politics 2004. Just wait for the general...

Exit Polls

Calpundit has a bunch of them from somewhere.

A Fate Worse Than Death

Can you imagine being trapped on a ship with these people?

Bush '04 Pledges to Restore Honor and Dignity

Link:

BOSTON - Addressing guests at a $2,000-a-plate fundraiser, George W. Bush pledged Monday that, if re-elected in November, he and running mate Dick Cheney will "restore honor and dignity to the White House."

"After years of false statements and empty promises, it's time for big changes in Washington," Bush said. "We need a president who will finally stand up and fight against the lies and corruption. It's time to renew the faith the people once had in the White House. If elected, I pledge to usher in a new era of integrity inside the Oval Office."

Bush told the crowd that, if given the opportunity, he would work to reestablish the goodwill of the American people "from the very first hour of the very first day" of his second term.

"The people have spoken," Bush said. "They said they want change. They said it's time to clean up Washington. They're tired of politics as usual. They're tired of the pursuit of self-interest that has gripped Washington. They want to see an end to partisan bickering and closed-door decision-making. If I'm elected, I'll make sure that the American people can once again place their trust in the White House."

Bush said the soaring national debt and the lengthy war in Iraq have shaken Americans' faith in the highest levels of government.

"A credibility gap has opened between the Oval Office and America," Bush said. "The public hears talk, but they don't see any result. But if you choose me as your next president, the promises I make in my inaugural address will actually mean something. The president of this country will be held accountable for his promises, starting Jan. 20 of next year."

Exit Polls

Frankly, I don't care if the media releases exit poll numbers and predicts a winner at 10 AM, but the total hypocrisy of the media (if the rumor is true) releasing exit poll data 3 hours before the polls close just pisses me off. The Most Important Issue in election 2000 wasn't the 80,000+ people who were wrongly scrubbed from the voter rolls, it wasn't the "bourgeois" riot by Republican staffers, it wasn't the Supreme Court's emergency stay due to the possible "irreperable harm" to one George W. Bush, it was the fact that the media called the election 15 minutes before the polls closed on the Florida panhandle, causing literally millions of panhandle voters to turn their cars around and drive home. Since then they promised us over and over that they would never ever do such a thing. Oy.

Actually, I wish they would release the data - the numbers are always an "open secret" in the media, and you can infer what they are from the little giggles the know-it-alls start making. It influences their coverage in an obvious way.

More on Conflict Kurtz

The Horse has an update.

...here's the Media Notes column they refer to.

Useful Idiots

Christopher Allbritton takes a look at the latest truly hilarious "iraq miracle" email being gobbled up by the armchair warriors.

The funny thing is that the email really doesn't pass the giggle test. Not even close.

Punch and Judy Dean Show

I'm sure the Diane Sawyer interview was a net positive for Dean, but it was nonetheless a truly horrible moment in campaign journalism.

Dean's natural response should have been, at some point, to have cut Sawyer off: "Excuse me, I'm tired of answering these superficial questions. Can't we talk about issues that matter to the American people?" Had he done so, however, it would have appeared to confirm the rap on him as a hothead. So the Deans were forced into the frame supplied by Sawyer — a father who gets excited at his son's hockey game can't be trusted; a woman doctor who doesn't watch much TV isn't really a normal American.

Incompetence

You know, it isn't just Bush himself - his whole adminstration defines a culture of "failing upwards," in which the competent sensible people get canned and the crazies get promoted. This article in the WaPo is a Cliffs Notes version of a longer one in the Atlantic Monthly. It's devastating. Will any of these idiots ever be held accountable? For anything? Ever?

The Reptilian Invasion

Peggy Noonan admits that it exists:

Let me assert something that I cannot prove with a poll but that is based on serious conversations the past few months with Republicans and also normal people ...

(thanks to cadenhead)



...go here for more on the Reptilian Invasion.

Predictions for Tomorrow

It will either be close between Kerry and Dean or it won't. Clark or Edwards will be third. How's that for bold?


...final ARG numbers out.

By the Numbers

Max draws a pretty picture to explain the latest CBO deficit projection. It isn't pretty.

...Krugman has more.

Why 13 Year Olds Shouldn't Be Tried As Adults

For Anything. These two pictures say it all.

Conflict Kurtz

It's hard to imagine what conflicts of interest Howard could have that a) are worse than what we know about and b) would actually cause his bosses at the WaPo to give a shit, but this is amusing...

From the Horse:

HOWARD KURTZ CAUGHT IN ETHICS PROBE
Conflict-of-Interest Charges to Get Kurtz Fired?
Charges of Personal Influence Peddling at Wash Post

MWO has learned from highly informed Washington sources that Howard 'Mistah' Kurtz faces numerous dangerous charges of conflict-of-interest and influence peddling in his media column at the Washington Post...The charges stem from documented instances of Kurtz's involvement in what appears to be insider trading of information aimed at enriching his wife, GOP right-wing media consultant Sheri Annis..."No one has used the word 'fired' yet," one source close to the investigation told MWO, "but Kurtz better be watching his back."...

Developing...

Sully's Minions

Thanks for all the viruses you're sending me.

...apologies to the minions. It appears there's a new worm.

Pity Them

For they know not how silly they are.

You Rock Antonin Scalia!

A 9-0 Miranda case. Finally.

Silly Sully

Last night in our little conversation Silly Sully said the following:

...what you'll never hear atrios do, is criticize the left...

after which I deservedly called him a liar. He then posted the following “challenge:”

On the radio last night, I made the point that blogger Atrios never seems to criticize the left. He denied this and called it a lie. So I asked him to cite a recent case in which he criticized the left or had anything good to say about president Bush. He couldn't. Well, he's now got plenty of time to prove me wrong. Let's see a few recent examples of his taking on the left or defying pure partisanship. If he can't, I'd appreciate him withdarwing the notion that I was committing a lie.

He's already shifting the goal post, requiring that I also demonstrate that I ever praise Bush and also wants recent examples.

The thing is, of course, is that no matter what I write in “defense” of the challenge, debate team gold star winner Andy will declare victory. You see, it all depends on how we define “the left” and what it means to criticize them.

I'm not sure what “the left” means in Andy's world. Sometimes it's Salon and the New York Times. Sometimes it's Tom Daschle. Sometimes it's Hillary Clinton. Sometimes it's the mythical Transnational Progressivism movement, operated out of Barbra Streisand's basement. Sometimes it's some guy with a sign somewhere that Andy doesn't like. Sometimes it's a website in the Netherlands which proves the existence of a liberal fifth column operating out of liberal blue state enclaves like Provincetown and Washington, D.C.

As for criticize, I'm sure what Andy will require is that I've criticized them in a way he agrees with. It won't be enough to prove I'm ever critical of the Left, but critical of them from a perspective he endorses.

Anyone who reads this blog knows I regularly criticize the New York Times and Salon. I've criticized the American Prospect and even the liberal New Republic. I regularly criticize the congressional leadership. I've criticized Daschle for selling out for farm interests. I've criticized Clinton, Kerry, Lieberman, and Edwards for their Iraq war votes. I've criticized Russ Feingold for voting to confirm John Ashcroft. I've criticized Dennis Kucinich for his abortion flipflop. I've criticized all of the major Democratic candidates for various things they've done in the campaign. I've criticized the Dems for passing that Medicare nonsense. Given that they're the minority party, there's little to criticize them for doing proactively – such as stupid legislation they've proposed . They're the minority party – they can't do much but react. But, I've criticized Fritz Holling for being behind stupid digital copyright-related stuff. I called for Jim Moran to resign from his leadership position after his anti-Semitic comments, as did Nancy Pelosi, and he subsequently did step down. I said that their little “pledge of allegiance under God” performance was when I was most embarassed to be a Democrat. Andy may not agree with these criticisms, but they are criticisms nonetheless.


The implication of Andy's statement is that in order to make “my team” look good, I only ever criticize the other team. That's what a hyper-partisan would do – never find foul with anything they do. So, if, say, Tom Daschle proposed a constitutional amendment banning abortion I'd say “You rock Tom! That's Great!” despite my lifelong opposition to such a thing. I don't do that. I can't think of any major person/entity/publication on “the left” that I haven't criticized.

I don't care what some guy with a sign or some other person-we're-going-to-pretend-is-representative-of-the-left says or does. I don't really feel the need to scream and shout every time Cockburn writes something I don't agree with, largely because I never read him. He doesn't represent me or the Democratic party, so why should I? I have no idea what Transnational Progrsesivism is, and I really don't understand why the Left gets equated with Militant Islamic Fundamentalism simply because we're occasionally insufficiently enthused about indscriminately bombing countries which have nothing to do with it. Generally, there's little point in critcizing the powerless, and only in the fevered imagination of Adam Yoshida do the elements of the left which are unpleasant to me actually have any political or financial power.

But, once again, Andy showed himself to be the small little man that he is. I had my list of “things to attack Andy with just in case” at hand, but after listening to 100 minutes of cordial nonconfrontational discussion about blogs it really didn't seem appropriate. It wasn't.

Big Mo

As a couple of people have pointed out, the latest Zogby poll has such a drastic change due to a change in the methodology - the "leaners" are now put in with the decideds. There's nothing wrong with this - Zogby's job this close to the election is to make his best guess, given the information, about what the outcome will be.

But, on the other hand, obviously polls have an influence, to some degree, on the outcome. So, if this outlier of a result gets pushed, as Drudge is doing now, it could help give Dean the "comeback kid" momentum. Zogby can make a self-fulfilling prophesy.


Anyway, it's increasingly clear that the big loser of Iowa was the guy who didn't even run in it - Clark. One wonders what he can do to get the Big Mo back.


...and, what Kos says, which is much the same.

AWOL Primer

If there are any journalists who, years later, have found all this Bush/AWOL stuff just too confusing to look into, you can go read David Neiwert who takes a look at the issues.
He concludes:

Though of course, we all remember how many critics of the mainstream right have referred to Clinton as a "draft dodger" -- which, like "deserter," is a term that refers specifically to acts of law-breaking. But then, I can't recall anyone demanding that George H.W. Bush or Bob Dole renounce the people who uttered those characterizations, either.

Indeed

Latest Polls

ARG shows NH tightening slightly, but with Kerry still way ahead, and Zogby shows it to basically be a tie.

Silly Sully

I'll have a response to Sullivan's dishonest "challenge" later, but here's Sadly, No on his now-modified letters policy.

Radio MP3

You can listen to the bit I was on here, courtesy of Intelligence Failure.


... I'm not the one with the Brit accent.

Preemption House

The General has a great suggestion for Fox News.

Fake Campaign Calls in NH

It appears that in NH people are phoning residents in the wee hours of the morning and claiming to be from the Dean campaign and encouraging them to vote. Lovely 4am wakeup call.

Here's an individual story.
Here's the statement from the New Hampshire Dean campaign:

Statement from State Director Karen Hicks
Posted by Timothy Jones
on Sun, 01/25/2004, 12:50 pm

Today, Karen Hicks, Dean For America's New Hampshire State Director, made the following statement:

"In recent days, our campaign has been hearing reports from New Hampshire voters that they are receiving:

* phone calls early in the morning and late at night;
* "robo calls" from soulless machines, not calls from considerate people;
* calls claiming to originate from the Dean campaign, but do not;
* and even harassing calls and bigoted messages.

Let me be very clear. The Dean campaign does not call New Hampshire homes before 8:30 am or after 8:30 pm. Our calls are made by respectful people, not droning machines. Our callers tell the truth.

We call on the other campaigns to make the same commitments.

We are grateful for the extraordinary engagement of New Hampshire's people in this race. But our campaign believes that everyone deserves some peace, some respect, and a truthful message."

Radio Tonight

I'll be on sometime between 9-11 EST. I'm not sure exactly what time or who I'll be on with, but all the info can be found here.

More Eastercrap

Easterbrook gets a spanking in the NYT today. Frankly, in my mind, Easterbrook is practically hitting John Lott territory. At least Lott has the good sense to dazzle you with a fancy laser light show to obscure the fact that he's full of it, but Easterbrook seems to just make stuff up as he goes along while hoping that no one notices. His honesty is definitely in question.

The Pickler

When Nedra Pickler writes that Howard Dean said " that the standard of living for Iraqis is a "whole lot worse" since Saddam Hussein's removal from power," she neglects to inform us that he's referring to the dead ones.

Of course, it isn't as if what she's claiming he said should be particularly controversial either.

The Kucinich-Bush Iraq Plan

Both are for bugging out, apparently, though the former is for doing it a bit more responsibly.

Oy

I think we're all in agreeance that the world didn't need a Limp Bizkit cover of the Who's "Behind Blue Eyes."

That'll teach me to turn on the local rock station.

GYWO

SOTU edition.

Haiku Award Winner

In comments, marquer provided the generic shorter Tom Friedman:

If we had some ham
We could have some ham and eggs
If we had some eggs.

Koufax Awards

Go vote!

Latest NH Tracking Polls

ARG.

Zogby.

...and Gallup.


...as Mark Kleiman wondered a couple days ago - are they polling the same race?

ARG gives us a huge Kerry victory and a 3 way tie for second - Clark, Dean Edwards.

Zogby gives us an increasingly slim Kerry victory, a strong Dean second, and a Clark/Edwards tie for 3rd.

Gallup gives us a big Kerry victory, a clear Dean second, and ... Lieberman in 3rd!

Bush vs. Dean

You be the judge.

It's funny. In the crowd video, the famous scream is all but inaudible.

Dead Peasants

You know, something's been confusing me. We've had these stories about how companies have been taking out "dead peasant" life insurance policies on their workers and make money on their deaths. Now we have this story out of Texas where the state is proposing to take out such life insurance policies on retired teachers. This Does Not Make Any Sense. Somebody doesn't understand how insurance works.

Any life insurance policy should be actuarially fair - that is, the expected discounted value of the payout should be equal to the expected discounted lifetime premium payments. So, if you die the day after you take out the policy you'll be ahead of the game. If you live until you're 110 you'll probably have wasted your money. Life insurance isn't a get quick rich scheme for the estate, it's simply a way to remove individual risk by combining it with a large number of other policies making it, from the perspective of the company, a riskless endeavor - barring a plague or something.

The reason to have "dead peasant" insurance policies is because from the point of view of a business, if your workers die prematurely it's costly to replace them and train new workers. (update: as Wingnut correctly reminds us in comments, favorable tax treatment can also be a reason.)

However, I can't think of any reason why an actuarially fair insurance policy written for a pool of retired teachers would have any financial benefit for the state. Somebody's getting scammed. And who's doing the scamming?

Former U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm, now an executive at UBS Investment Bank of New York, is promoting the proposal. State officials stressed that they are only considering the idea. But they pointed out that the plan could raise millions of dollars for the financially strapped Texas Teacher Retirement System, one of the largest public pensions in the nation, while the state would assume little risk.

Shorter Tom Friedman

Link:

If there were more liberal democracies, there would be more liberal democracies.

Blogs On the Media

You can listen to William of the Wilgoren Watch and Jay Rosen discuss the general "adopt a journalist idea" on On the Media.

Steve Gilliard, who is quite sick, gets a mention too.

That Jodi Wilgoren is one nasty piece of work. Wow.

Polls

Oops:

Meanwhile, a week after President Bush's State of the Union address, his approval rating has fallen to 50 percent from 54 percent in the last Newsweek Poll (1/8-9/04). Yet, a 52-percent majority of registered voters says it would not like to see him re-elected to a second term. Only 44 percent say they would like to see him re-elected, a four-point drop from the last Newsweek Poll. (Of that, 37% strongly want to see him re-elected, and 47% strongly do not).

Will they ever stop calling him "popular?"

Sloppy

David Brooks needs to be a bit more careful with his re-writes.


...note, I don't think this qualifies as plagiarism under any reasonable definition but it's still quite sloppy.

Anatomy of a Goreing

Campaign Desk traces the coverage of Dean's speech.

Rarely is the Question Asked

Does Bush attend church every week? I remember in the early days, when he'd be at Camp David most weekends, they'd make a point of saying he attended church at the private chapel there. But lately? Is it like Reagan all over again, who the media dutifully provided with the aura of a churchgoer but who rarely attended?

Donor Demographics

Interesting.

Afternoon Yawp

Enjoy.


Mean Dean to Flightsuit Boy: YEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAGH

...and here's Dean's latest campaign ad.

...and here you can listen to Howard Dean teach us the names of the states. (right click and save, then rename to a .mp3 file).

(thanks to azizisbored)

More on WMDs

Following up this Calpundit post, I don't actually believe the administration believed that Iraq had any kind of WMDs which posed a real threat to the US or anyone else. I think they assumed Iraq would have something which could be used to justify that claim - some nasty chemicals, say. But, some nasty chemicals are far less of a "WMD" than our shock-and-awe (ah, remember all the media whore oohing and aahin over those. sick, really.) conventional bombs are.

As one of Kevin's commenters notes, "it was completely obvious the administration did not believe there were WMD as there was no plan to secure them (or anything else for that matter) and insufficient personnel to do so." This is correct. If they truly believed that something existed, and truly cared about the "war on terra," there would have been a bit more concern about such things either being used on then-Viceroy Garner's new digs, or falling into the hands of international terrorist organizations.

And, one final word on the whole "they never said it was imminent!" nonsense. When there is a country which has been explicitly the enemy of the US and one of our major allies for years, and when the Vice President says about the leader of that country "Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt he is amassing them to use against our friends, against our allies, and against us," I and every other rational person would conclude that there is indeed an imminent threat. I mean, what the hell kind of weapons of mass destruction are they if they a) exist, and b) are not a threat?

League of Conservation Voters

The idiot Whitfield on CNN just referred to this as a "conservative group."

Pass the bourbon.

The Kerry Strategy

Let me second what Big Media Matt says about Kerry's strategy to portray himself the candidate whose patriotism is unimpeachable. As he says, it may work in the primary but lord help us if he's the candidate and he truly believes that it's actually true.

My rule for this election - no candidate, by virtue of their resume, is immune from any kind of attack. Any campaign which clings to this fantasy is doomed.

With 5 seconds of thought I can think of about a half-dozen ways which Kerry is easily vulnerable along these lines - in some ways, perhaps, even more than the other candidates.

...Just to clarify, I wasn't making an argument that Kerry is therefore "less electable," just trying to get the point across that in this up-is-down world with a pliant RNC/Drudge talking point-repeating SCLM, even a candidate's "strengths" can easily be turned against him. That isn't to say that different candidates don't have genuine strengths, and of course they will and should try and use them, but no one should be fooled into thinking that they've been given an immunity card against anything based on those perceived strengths. A smart Kerry campaign will have already considered how to overturn the various smears I've anticipated, a dumb Kerry campaign will just assume that they can't happen. I'm not saying the Kerry campaign is dumb - this whole post was premised on "IF..."

War Profiteers

Southern Exposure has some interesting stuff about what's going on in Iraq.

No WMD

Even Kay is out. Anyway, there are many things one could say about this but I'd just like to say that this is yet another indictment of our media.

Let's grant everyone the benefit of the doubt for a moment. Let's suppose the Bush administration truly believed their own rhetoric. Let's suppose they were operating on good intelligence and, though they were a bit selective in their reading, they were true believers. Fine.

But, at the time, there were also plenty of reasonable people running around saying that this whole WMD stuff was nonsense. Remember how they were treated by our media? They were treated like escapees from an insane asylum who needed to up their Thorazine dose. Remember how radical and controversial it was to even suggest such a thing?

How embarassing for them all, if they could feel such emotions.

Presidential

August J. Pollak suggests some things the candidates can do in order to be deemed presidential by our press corps.


read it while having your Morning Yawp.

AWOL

skippy reports on a little episode on CNN today where a bunch of journalists sat around perplexed about W's AWOL issue. Apparently none of them had ever bothered to look into the story. It's all so complicated, you, see, and, I mean, my gosh, it wasn't as if this came up when the guy was running for president or anything...

pathetic.

It's All About Me

Howard Fineman gives us a glimpse inside his mind. It really really isn't pretty. In fact, just writing that paragraph should be enough to get him booted out of his job.

Shocking Photo Discovered

Wonkette has found a shocking photo of Howard Dean.

(darn broadband was down all afternoon)

A Yawping Good Time

They're all here. Post your favorites.

Help Bill Press

Over at the DNC blog, Bill Press is asking people to help him write his next book. Don't worry, it isn't a Rich Lowry-type "do my homework for me" request.

Afternoon Yawp

Welcome to the Jungle Baby!

Conspiracy Theories

Jesse makes the point that not all conspiracy theories are created equal.

No Deal for Rusty

Prosecution says they have evidence supporting 10 felony counts. Time for the arrest and perp walk!

Silly Sully

For some reason a hundred thousand people marching with a few unreconstructed Stalinists is bad, but working for an advocate of gay genocide is good. Whatever.

Duel in the Moon-light

One unambiguously gay duo President Bush doesn't have to worry about getting married any time soon is conservative columnist Andrew Sullivan and left-leaning commentator Michelangelo Signorile.

Signorile has denounced Sullivan for writing for the Washington Times, whose owner, cult-leader Sun Myung Moon, makes no secret of his hatred for gays.

The main Moonie has called gays "less than animals," and believes God will purge them from the earth.

Signorile asked in the New York Press: "How on earth could a gay writer take a check from a man who can't wait to see him thrown into an oven?"

But Sullivan has hit back, saying the Washington Times never censors him.

He told us: "Moon's views are horrifying, but ... I champion gay rights and equality in a paper where they are usually unmentionable," adding, "When you're a tiny minority, purism isn't an option."

The Morning Yawp

Start your day off with Howard Dean singing Crazy Train.

Inverse Judo Flip

Dean on Letterman.

Plame Grand Jury

Apparently it exists.

Wives

So, whatshername on ABC is grilling Howard and Judy Dean about the fact that Judy isn't attached to Howard on the campaign trail. Aside from all the obvious sillyness of these questions - are the Mrs. Edwards, Kerrys, Liebermans, and Clarks on the permanent campaign? Have they really been that much more visible than Mrs. Dean?

Summary Judgment

The debate is still going on NH, I believe, but Fox has cut. So here's my take - just + , neutral, or minus without commentary.

I'm going to do this two ways. First, my judgments. Second the judgment of the hypothetical mind of the average New Hampshire voter which I claim to know. The latter, of course, is pure speculation. And both depend on the baseline judgments.

My personal judgments - how I thought they did personally, if I were the voter they were trying to convince:

Lieberman - neutral
Kerry - minus
Edwards - plus
Dean - neutral
Sharpton - minus
Kucinich - neutral
Clark - plus

My fake mindreading:

Lieberman - ?
Kerry - minus
Edwards - neutral
Dean - plus
Sharpton - minus
Kucinich - minus
Clark - neutral

Atrios Live!

It looks like I'll be on the radio...

Debate Thread

Nice job so far Fox. Jeebus.

Anyway, I thought about doing a play by pay but perhaps it'd be best if I keep my mouth shut.

...the Pandagon twins are taking care of it... as is the California Kid.
I'll give my final judgment when it's over. This is actually the first one I've watched any significant part of, I think.

...live feed here (thanks to Dom Suzanne).


You know, there really is nothing more disgusting than Brit "I love my dead gay son" Hume getting all indignant about gay rights issues.

Presidential

Nothing could be more presidential than this.

Cheney Pushes "Inaccurate" Leaked Classified Document

In an interview this month, Vice President Dick Cheney touted a report and leaked classified document that the Administration itself has billed "inaccuarate" as the basis for his Iraq-Al Qaeda claims.

Specifically, when questioned about his tenuous Saddam-Al Qaeda claims, Cheney said "you ought to go look is an article that Stephen Hayes did in the Weekly Standard here a few weeks ago, that goes through and lays out in some detail, based on an assessment that was done by the Department of Defense and forwarded to the Senate Intelligence Committee some weeks ago. That's your best source of information."

Yet, the article and document Cheney is referring reporters to was discredited by the Administration as "inaccurate" weeks ago. Additionally, the Administration criticized the leak saying "Individuals who leak or purport to leak classified information are doing serious harm to national security; such activity is deplorable and may be illegal." Now, though, Cheney is actively trumpeting the "inaccurate" document as the basis for his unsubstantiated claims.

For the transcript of Cheney's interview where he directs reporters to "inaccurate" and classified material see:
Link

For the Administration's press release calling the article "inaccurate" and condemning the leak see:
Link

(courtesy CAP)

Political Appointees Running things at Justice

This is getting fucking ridiculous:

The Justice Department has formally refused a demand from Texas Democrats to release a lengthy internal memo about a Republican redistricting plan that experts believe could produce a GOP gain of as many as seven House seats in that state later this year, according to documents and officials.

...
The Democrats' lead attorney, J. Gerald Hebert of Alexandria, responded with an appeal to the Justice Department yesterday, alleging that career attorneys had recommended an objection to the redistricting plan, but were overruled by political appointees. Democrats argue that the Texas map violates the Voting Rights Act of 1965 because it eliminates two districts in which minorities make up a majority of the voters.

"Clearly the Department of Justice is stonewalling this request to avoid the embarrassment that will surely ensue when the memorandum is made public," Hebert wrote in his appeal, which was filed with the department's Office of Information and Privacy. "Unfortunately, the political appointees of the Justice Department appear committed to dismantling the Voting Rights Act. They are hiding this report, because it will make their intentions clear."

Complete contempt for the Civil Rights movement. Bigoted assholed bastard fuckheads.

Oops

Poll no longer operative:

When the American Family Association posted an online poll last month asking its constituents their position on gay marriage, it thought it was engaging in a straightforward exercise.

The conservative organization supports a constitutional amendment defining marriage as strictly between a man and a woman, and it planned to forward to Congress the results of the poll, which it expected would support its position, as evidence of Americans' opposition to gay marriage.

But the AFA never counted on the power of the Internet. And once the URL to the poll escaped its intended audience, everything went haywire. As of Jan. 19, 60 percent of respondents -- more than 508,000 voters -- said, "I favor legalization of homosexual marriage." With an additional 7.89 percent -- or 66,732 voters -- replying, "I favor a 'civil union' with the full benefits of marriage except for the name," the AFA's chosen position, "I oppose legalization of homosexual marriage and 'civil unions,'" was being defeated by a 2-1 ratio.

"We're very concerned that the traditional state of marriage is under threat in our country by homosexual activists," said AFA representative Buddy Smith. "It just so happens that homosexual activist groups around the country got a hold of the poll -- it was forwarded to them -- and they decided to have a little fun, and turn their organizations around the country (onto) the poll to try to cause it to represent something other than what we wanted it to. And so far, they succeeded with that."

Of course, no such poll can be said to represent an accurate picture of popular opinion. But, clearly, the AFA had hoped Congress would take the numbers it planned to produce as exactly that kind of evidence.

Now, Smith says, his organization has had to abandon its goal of taking the poll to Capitol Hill.

"We made the decision early on not to do that," Smith admitted, "because of how, as I say, the homosexual activists around the country have done their number on it."

Don't forget plenty of straight activists, too.

Peggy Drew Noonan and the Case of the Missing Papal Quote

Ha Ha Ha.

Someone start paying this woman, soon.

Political Hate Speech

I have no idea what that is, but it sounds like Trent Lott is engaging in it.

Regarding Drudge's Latest Fake Scoop

I doubt you could find a single Democrat who didn't, at one time, toy with some private investment plan as a part of Social Security, myself included. We've fortunately mostly all woken up from that bad dream. But, as with most things, what matters is where Edwards is now on the whole nonsense. If he's your guy, ignore Drudge.

...now he has the details. Still a dumb idea, but nothing to do with what the Bushies are proposing. At the time remember there were genuine concerns about what to do with surplus SS money once the government no longer needed to issue T-Bills for new debt. Haha, remember those silly days?

The Morning Yawp

Just a great way to start the day.

Liar Liar

Kevin Drum wrote the post that I've been meaning to write, which is that if Bush carries through with his stated budget promises, which include the Medicare bill already passed, holding spending to 4% per year, and making the tax cuts "permanent," the only way he can come close to "cutting the deficit in half in 5 years" is if Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, and George Soros all donate the bulk of their fortunest to the federal government. At best, without AMT reform, the deficit will be cut from $480 to $440 billion dollars.


Kevin's analysis also ignores likely increased Iraq expenditures and various assorted tax giveaways Bush may propose.

Bigger Than the Watergate Break-In

This really is absolutely incredible, and the goddamn media is just sleeping. Imagine if Democrats had done this. Really - just try.

WASHINGTON -- Republican staff members of the US Senate Judiciary Commitee infiltrated opposition computer files for a year, monitoring secret strategy memos and periodically passing on copies to the media, Senate officials told The Globe.
ADVERTISEMENT


From the spring of 2002 until at least April 2003, members of the GOP committee staff exploited a computer glitch that allowed them to access restricted Democratic communications without a password. Trolling through hundreds of memos, they were able to read talking points and accounts of private meetings discussing which judicial nominees Democrats would fight -- and with what tactics.

The office of Senate Sergeant-at-Arms William Pickle has already launched an investigation into how excerpts from 15 Democratic memos showed up in the pages of the conservative-leaning newspapers and were posted to a website last November.

With the help of forensic computer experts from General Dynamics and the US Secret Service, his office has interviewed about 120 people to date and seized more than half a dozen computers -- including four Judiciary servers, one server from the office of Senate majority leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, and several desktop hard drives.

But the scope of both the intrusions and the likely disclosures is now known to have been far more extensive than the November incident, staffers and others familiar with the investigation say.

The revelation comes as the battle of judicial nominees is reaching a new level of intensity. Last week, President Bush used his recess power to appoint Judge Charles Pickering to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, bypassing a Democratic filibuster that blocked a vote on his nomination for a year because of concerns over his civil rights record.

Democrats now claim their private memos formed the basis for a February 2003 column by conservative pundit Robert Novak that revealed plans pushed by Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Democrat of Massachusetts, to filibuster certain judicial nominees. Novak is also at the center of an investigation into who leaked the identity of a CIA agent whose husband contradicted a Bush administration claim about Iraqi nuclear programs.

Citing "internal Senate sources," Novak's column described closed-door Democratic meetings about how to handle nominees.

Its details and direct quotes from Democrats -- characterizing former nominee Miguel Estrada as a "stealth right-wing zealot" and describing the GOP agenda as an "assembly line" for right-wing nominees -- are contained in talking points and meeting accounts from the Democratic files now known to have been compromised.

Novak declined to confirm or deny whether his column was based on these files.

"They're welcome to think anything they want," he said. "As has been demonstrated, I don't reveal my sources."

Oh, but you do Bob, remember Robert Hanssen?

Jeff Gerth Still Has a Job

Eric Boehlert reminds us of all that Wen Ho Lee crap.

What We're Up Against

You know, I've read a lot of crazy shit in freeperville and elsewhere, but this email to Margaret Cho is truly a work of art.

Get Thee to Sundance

The Hunting of the President movie is finally having its premier.

Losing His Religion

It really is odd watching Lou Dobbs lose his religion. He's flailing around looking for a new one and he's mighty confused.

Seventy-six percent of consumers who look for U.S.-made products say that they have a hard time finding them, and the reason for this is simple: We've given away our manufacturing base through "free" trade. In 1951, the average U.S. trade tariff was approximately 15 percent. By 1979 the average industrial tariff had sunk to 5.7 percent, and now it is just under 3 percent. Most foreign importers enjoy nearly unrestricted access to the U.S. marketplace. As a result, Americans have become the world's greatest customers, with the country accumulating a trade deficit every year since 1976.

...

Amazingly, last week Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan referred to our record-high trade deficits as "seemingly uneventful." I assume Greenspan has heard of the boiling frog analogy, in which as the temperature rises to near boiling, all is seemingly uneventful for the ill-fated frog. But the Fed chairman evidently has no problem proclaiming the dangers of what he calls "clouds of emerging protectionism," apparently referring to a number of calls by members of Congress for this country to conduct fair trade and balanced trade. Those calls so concerned Greenspan that he said, "The costs of any new protectionist initiatives . . . could significantly erode the flexibility of the global economy."

Joining those members of Congress are Democratic presidential candidates: Reps. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina, and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.

Trade has hardly become a central issue on the campaign trails, up to this point. But I suspect it is about to. America can no longer afford the price of "free" trade.

I'm basically a "free trader," but it's time we stop pretending it's that simple.

Plagiarism in the SOTU

Rep. Peter Hoekstra, Detroit News, 10/20/2003

The group's report uncovers dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations.

Bush, last night:

Already, the Kay Report identified dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations.

Probably the white house PR gnomes wrote Hoekstra's op-ed for him, too.

(thanks to reader pd)

Not Nit Picklering

USA Today provides context to Bush's speech in a fair way.

Barbaric Yawp

Haha. Max brings us a little poem.

Listen to Dean in all his funky glory.

I agree. Play this at every campaign appearance.

By the Rules

Given the way our immigration system works, it is impossible to be 100% certain that you are indeed following the rules. I've had friends who were literally told two completely opposite things by different immigration officials about what they were supposed to do. I've known people whose US employers also gave them false information about their obligations which could have been catastrophic had the advice been followed. And, these days, any screwup can get you whisked out of the country. Note that this isn't just about the rights of foreigners to not have to deal with Calvinball justice - it's also about citizens' rights to marry whoever the hell they want to.

A German woman married to a Brooklyn schoolteacher had been told that she had all her papers in order when she took a quick trip to show off her infant daughter to her parents in Germany.

But her return home in late December turned surreal and terrifying when Homeland Security officials at Kennedy Airport rejected her travel documents, confiscated her passport, then detained her and the 3-month-old overnight in a room with shackled drug suspects. They let her go only after ordering her to leave the country no later than tomorrow.

After a month of desperate efforts by her American husband, their lawyers and legislators, late yesterday a spokeswoman for the Homeland Security Department said that the woman, Antje Croton, 36, would be granted a last-minute reprieve. But Mrs. Croton said she had received no written notification. "I'm in a nightmare," she said as she packed yesterday afternoon, having abandoned hope of straightening out the problem. "I feel like I'm in the wrong movie."

...

Mrs. Croton has lived in Park Slope for five years, and her application for a green card has been pending for nearly two. When her sister urged her to visit Germany, she wanted to take no chances. So in October, she said, she asked immigration officials at 26 Federal Plaza about getting a new travel permit.

According to her account, an immigration official, C. E. Herndandez, insisted that her old permit was still valid, though it had a July expiration date, because it bore a stamp saying "April 2004." Reassured, Mrs. Croton departed on Dec. 9. "I did everything by the rules," Mrs. Croton said.

But on Dec. 22, when she returned to Kennedy Airport at 9 p.m., exhausted after a 10-hour trip alone with her baby daughter, Clara, front-line border security officers barred her way. They said the immigration official had been wrong: the July 2003 expiration, not the April 2004 stamp, applied, and she could not enter the United States.

They interrogated her until 2 a.m., she said, as she wept, tried to nurse her baby and pleaded with officials to call her husband, who was waiting without word in the terminal.

You shall know them...

... by their favorite music.

An Associated Press canvass of the candidates on what album they'd most like to pop into their CD players turns up gospel, opera, hip-hop, country and rock.

The rock fans are Wesley Clark, who likes Journey's "Greatest Hits"; Sen. John Edwards, "The Essential Bruce Springsteen"; and Sen. John Kerry, the Beatles' "Abbey Road."

Howard Dean singled out the music of Grammy-winning hip-hop singer Wyclef Jean. Rep. Dennis Kucinich chose country's Willie Nelson (who has endorsed him), and Al Sharpton favored gospel's Yolanda Adams. Sen. Joe Lieberman's favorite album is "Sueno," by classical Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli.

Faith Based Bull

Even I could be persuaded (on principle, at least), that government funding for religious social programs, such as drug treatment, could be okay as long as the program participants had a variety of options - both secular and from other religious perspectives - that received roughly equal support. But, here we have a perfect example of a situation where this is not the case:

Most inmates at Iowa's Newton Correctional Facility live three to a cell and have no privacy, even when they use the toilet. But if they agree to immerse themselves in Bible study and "the transforming love of Jesus Christ," according to two lawsuits filed yesterday, they are given keys to their cell doors, private bathrooms, free phone calls -- even access to big-screen TVs.

The lawsuits, filed by the Washington-based advocacy group Americans United for Separation of Church and State, challenge the constitutionality of a prison ministry program that President Bush has promoted as a model for his effort to allow religious groups to compete for public funds to provide social services.

....

InnerChange runs programs that combine Bible study with job training at prisons in Iowa, Texas, Minnesota and Kansas. The lawsuits challenge only the Iowa program. But experts said a ruling against the program could lead to similar challenges in the other states, an appeal to the Supreme Court or both.

To ensure its legal standing to sue, Americans United filed one lawsuit on behalf of Jerry D. Ashburn, 44, who is serving a life sentence for murder, and the second on behalf of families of three other inmates.

According to the suits, about 200 Iowa prisoners pray and memorize Bible verses under the guidance of Christian staff in prison rooms lined with displays of scripture passages. In return, they live in an "honor" unit where they are housed two to a cell, permitted to leave their cells at night and granted many other privileges.

The program is funded, in part, with revenue from phone charges on the general inmate population. Iowa Department of Corrections spokesman Fred Scaletta said, "No state dollars, including telephone monies, are used in the religious component of the program." But the lawsuits contend that it is impossible to separate the religious and secular portions of a program that describes itself as "Christ-centered" 24 hours a day.

The suits also say the privileges given to InnerChange participants amount to incentives to convert to fundamentalist Christianity.

Eugene Volokh, a law professor at UCLA who generally takes a supportive view of faith-based programs, said that if the courts accept the description of the program in the lawsuits, it is likely to be struck down. Even setting aside the issue of state funding, he said, "the offer of various benefits that are unavailable to others is an indirect form of coercion that is clearly impermissible."

In practice, I don't think conditions can be met such that government intervention in religion in this way isn't more harmful than good. In any case, this situation doesn't even come close to being "okay."

How Low They've Sunk

This story about NBC promising to not run a critical investigation piece of Jackson in exchange for an interview should be unbelievable, but we should stop pretending that this isn't simply the way things work now.

Mars

I guess that idea is no longer operable.

Privatizing Social Security

Just imagine when there's trillions more to be looted:

Deep down, Michael O'Hara knew the huge profits at Financial Advisory Consultants Inc. "were just too good to be true."

So when his 70th birthday rolled around in 2000, and he had to start drawing down his individual retirement accounts, he hedged his bets by taking out more money than required by law.

O'Hara, a prosperous insurance agent from Placentia, regarded the $106,000 he had deposited in the 1990s in an FAC investment fund as "Vegas money." And with the fund reporting annual returns of nearly 40%, O'Hara seemed to have hit the jackpot: Late last year, even after he had withdrawn $123,000, his FAC account balance was $700,000.

Then FAC crapped out. Two days before Christmas, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged the Lake Forest company and its owner, James P. Lewis Jr., with operating an elaborate, 20-year fraud.

An FBI raid of FAC's office on El Toro Road turned up assets worth a bit more than 1% of the $813.9 million that Lewis' clients supposedly had accumulated. Lewis, known to his family, friends and clients as an investment genius, was nowhere to be found. As of late Friday, he was being sought by the FBI.

But this paragraph is just silly:

Among the cruel twists of the FAC debacle is that so many investors, like O'Hara, were gambling with their retirement funds. Many lost virtually everything. According to SEC filings and attorneys involved in the case, the victims include Lewis' computer technician, who mortgaged his house to invest with FAC, and the mother of Lewis' live-in companion, who handed over her entire $250,000 in retirement savings.

All investment is "gambling with retirement funds." All of it. Some has greater risk, some less, but all of it is gambling. These were to a great degree IRA accounts.

SOTU Gets Nit Pickled By Woodward

You know, this style is just awful. Really horrible. If something's dishonest, call it dishonest. If something requires more context, provide more context. But all lack of context deemed appropriate by the journalist does not imply an intent to deceive. This sort of point/counterpoint style is not the appropriate way to write an analysis piece of this type.

Nagourney on Rose

I'm sitting here watching Adam Nagourney communicate the views of his invisible friends. As we know, the plural of anecdote is data, but poor Adam has only one. Good enough for the NYT!


Journalism in the 21st century - A Boat Load of Crap.

CNN Poll

Go!

Self-Parody

This has to be a joke:

[T]he Kay Report identified dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities...

There are days I think they're just laughing at us. Well, most days.

On CNN Tonight

(thanks to ns)

Dear Andrew

Your hero said this tonight:

On an issue of such great consequence, the people's voice must be heard. If judges insist on forcing their arbitrary will upon the people, the only alternative left to the people would be the constitutional process. Our Nation must defend the sanctity of marriage.

Love,

Atrios.


Seriously, I heard Crazy Andy on NPR the other day. He truly believes that if Bush pushes the FMA - which of course he is - that a million strong right wing gays will rise up and change the face of american politics forever. What a weird world he lives in.

Nit Picklering

Big Media Matt comments on the latest journalistic standard for truth-telling by Democrats in The American Prospect.


P.S. I actually have no idea if I devised "Nit Picklering" or if I borrowed it from someone in comments. Feel free to take credit!

SOTU Thread

I won't watch. Doctor's orders. But snark away...

Chivalry and Anger Management

Compare and Contrast:

Dean:

Q: You've mentioned that you don't give him advice on politics or policy because it's not really where your interest is. Are there any issues that you feel passionate about that you do weigh in on — whether it's the environment or health care or any policy things at all?
Judy: I have my opinions on health care from my point of view, and he probably knows what they are because we talk about them. But it's not really giving advice. So I would say no, I don't really give advice.
Howard: Judy sort of functions as my Person-in-the-Street. The best kind of advice she gives me is, "You look like an idiot on television." She wouldn't say it that way, but, "You didn't do very well on television"' I'll never forget the first time we went to a speech that I was giving on a subject I knew not much about. And on the way home, I said, "Well, how did you think I did?" and she said, "Fair to poor, with the emphasis on poor," which, I had to admit, was probably exactly right.

Bush:

Things were not always so smooth. For much of her life, Laura Welch was ''so uninterested in politics.'' Even though they lived for a time at different ends of the same apartment complex, she turned down a couple of suggested dates with George W. Bush. Finally, she attended a back-yard barbecue thrown by mutual friends. He made her laugh. He was a great talker. She was a great listener. Both in their 30s, they married three months after their first date. There was no honeymoon. They hit his congressional campaign trail the day after the wedding.

After a few speeches, he asked her - coming up the driveway on the way home from one - how his delivery was going over. Terrible, said the forthright wife. George W. drove his Pontiac Bonneville right into the garage wall.

Greg Mankiw Flashback

There seems to be a neverending parade of economists willing to trash their reputations by carrying water for this administration. Comrade Max brings us a little ditty Mankiw sang back in the dark days of 1998.

No one in Washington seems to worry about budget deficits anymore--no one, that is, except the Congressional Budget Office. Its recent study Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and Policy Options describes the economic future our children and grandchildren are likely to face. The report is written in the CBO's dryasdust style, but for anyone with a tolerance for numbers and an interest in policy, it is as scary as a Stephen King novel. . . .

What does it take to solve the problem? The CBO estimates that the federal government could fix this whole mess by immediately and permanently reducing spending or raising taxes by 8%.

Frightening though that solution is, what's even worse is the probability that no one will act on it. . .

SOTU Speech Over

I guess I missed it.

WASHINGTON Jan. 20 — President Bush, wrapping the themes of his re-election campaign in an upbeat State of the Union address, said Tuesday night that America is still a nation at war and must not "falter and leave our work unfinished."
Bush said he was optimistic about the reviving economy and urged Congress to take steps to make sure the recovery lasts. "We must respond by helping more Americans gain the skills to find good jobs in our new economy," the president said.

Jeebus

The government has been using Census Data in its little airline data project.

What the fuck.


UPDATE: It appears that they may have used the publicly available Public Use Microsample (PUMS). If so, no foul.

Delegate Count

Lost in much of the Iowa discussion was how many delegates each candidate actually picked up. Kerry picked up 20, Edwards picked up 18, and Dean picked up 8.

Dean's still winning the delegate count, given commitments by super delegates, but those can of course change.

Union Blogging

Welcome the SEIU to the blogosphere.

Trent Lott Then and Now

Courtesy of the Center for American Progress:

THEN

"Any appointment of a federal judge during a recess should be opposed."

- Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) opposing the appointment of an African American judge, December 2000

NOW

"Judge Pickering's record deems this recess appointment fully appropriate."

- Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), 1/17/04

Indeed.

Caucus and the Dollar

It looks like the currency markets didn't like the results in Iowa.*

*That's a joke by the way, I'm not suggesting there's any connection. Just apeing the business news spin.

Craptacular

Just go read this World O'Crap post.

Hell, Jack Shafer? This is a Rewrite.

Jack Shafer reprimands Howie Kurtz for not emphasizing in his recent story that it was mostly Democrats that journalists were giving money to. But, if I were an editor and I had Jack Shafer's story I'd have made Jack point something else out to his readers.

As Shafer himself notes, Kurtz claims to have found over 100 examples by looking through FEC records. There's no way to know if this is an exhuastive list or not. Then, Howard only lists 28 examples out of 100, so there's no way to know if this is a representative sample of the people he found.

That's the real story - Kurtz and Shafer are hacks. It could be that Kurtz busted more people giving to Democrats than Republicans, and that was clearly what he was trying to imply with his article, but he didn't actually bother to share enough information with us.

...Another interesting point Kurtz could have made is that while he lists plenty of people who gave to the Bradley campaign, there isn't a single person listed who gave money to Gore. Now there's a story!

Howie "Conflict of Interest" Kurtz

Howie never met a conflict of interest he couldn't explain away or ignore.