Well, I'm not going to pat myself on the back for correct predictions because obviously at some point I changed them, but... My thinking 9 months or so ago was that if not for Howard Dean the primary was going to be dull dull dull and the Dems would be DOA. Dean went out in front and made it "okay" to actually say nasty things about Dear Leader, something the rest of them were scared to do. I figured Dean would continue to force the other candidates to actually come up with a message and distinguish themselves from the Republicans... and that eventually Kerry would be The Man. I was one of the last few to say that Kerry still had a chance before everyone, including me, declared him DOA. It turns out I was right - I just thought Kerry would figure things out by November or December. I didn't think it would take until 3 days before the Iowa Caucus. But, hey, he managed it - good for him. I'm less high on a Kerry candidacy than I once was, but maybe he's found the fire in the belly I've been worried that he lacked.
But, I think people who are writing Dean's obituary yet again are dead wrong. Sure, there were expectations that he could make it a *close* second, but he'll come away with a *solid* second. The difference, while important, is less important than many are saying. Dean has the money.
Similarly, I think it's completely wrong to count Edwards out. To me, Clark's looking pretty wounded, but I could be wrong.
But, everythings changes now. No more months and weeks of on the ground campaigning. There isn't time. It's going to be a combination of momentum, ads, and organizations on the ground. One week from today there are seven primaries. There's a good chance Edwards will take South Carolina. Clark's still got a good chance in Oklahoma. Clark has a good chance in Arizona, and the big prize - Missouri - is probably up in the air. Delaware and New Mexico are probably up for grab also.
How long before Clinton won his first primary in 1992? Who was the presumed nominee at this point? A certain Senator from Mass. if I remember correctly...
...a rather odd thing is the number of people who voted in the Republican primary, but wrote in the names of Democrats...
...along those lines, it's a bit weird listening to Carville and Begala write Dean's obituary. Yeah, I know they've been anti-Dean from the beginning, but don't they remember 1992? I don't remember President Tsongas...
