Rasmussen tracking has Kerry at 48-42.
I'm not sure why I'm giving unsolicited advice to the Bush campaign, and unlike when conservatives do it (Lieberman is your best chance!), I'm dead serious - but Bush really should pull one of the ads he's running against Kerry. You know, the really "wacky" one with the wacky announcer talking about Kerry supporting gas tax increases. Given the seriousness of events right now, it just makes Bush look like a total tool. It may succeed in driving Kerry's negatives up, but it probably isn't doing much for Bush's.