As I've written before, the currency markets tend to react quickly in a predictable fashion to any new financial news, so their movement generaly provides a pretty quick proxy for how new data deviated from expectations.
Today we hit a record trade deficit which was higher than the supposed "consensus" result. But, the dollar instantly rose on the news, when it instead should have moved in the opposite direction if the published consensus view accurately reflected the market view. Clearly the market was betting on an even higher number...
