Attaturk's got the right idea. Certainly, as Josh says, this is all about the 2006 elections bt it's more complicated than that. I'm sticking with my "we're never leaving while George Bush is in office." The number of troops in Iraq is now at near record levels, so decreasing that number somewhat is possible simply by reverting back to the average. Perhaps they'll go down to 100,000 as that's a nice round number.
Still, it isn't just the fact that the troops are there that's a problem it's the fact that they're dying. If troop strength is decreased simply for electoral purposess and the declining numbers leave those who remain more vulnerable then that's a problem.