Here’s my prediction: If Lieberman wins the election, he will not switch to the Republicans, as some fear. But he will do the functional equivalent, which is accept Bush’s appointment to replace Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense, resign his seat and allow the Republican governor of Connecticut to appoint a Republican in his stead. That is the implicit deal between the Lieberman camp and Rove, Cheney, Bush etc and the reason, that alone, in the entire country, this is the only race where this most partisan of political operations, refuses to support the Republican in the race. Bush, Rove and Cheney do not make political decisions on the basis of what they think is good for the country. They care only about their party and themselves. If Lieberman supporters are genuinely supporting him as a Democrat, is it not enough for him to pledge to vote with the party in the Senate. He must pledge that, under no circumstances, will he accept an appointment from Bush or resign his seat under any circumstances, so long as a Republican occupies the state House.
I don't know how likely this is, but if it comes to pass don't say we didn't warn you . Another guess about a likely possibility is that Lieberman's agreed to caucus with Republicans if they need him. If by some miracle the Dems manage to retake the Senate with Lieberman's vote he'll vote for the Repulican Majority Leader instead.
Joe's got many more opportunities for betrayal ahead of him. Maybe he's not as much of a wanker as I think he is. Let's hope we don't find out.
...adding that the not exactly reliable Gerstein has said Lieberman is committed to supporting Reid.