So, to clear up some of Hotline's confusion - the reason why different polls are getting such different results is that one of those polls is polling about a named candidate who isn't on the ballot.
Here's the question.
Vote_CD. If the election for the US House of Representatives was being held today and the candidates were MICHAEL FITZPATRICK, the Republican, PATRICK MURPHY, the Democrat, AND TOM LINGENFELTER, the Independent candidate, would you vote for...
47% MICHAEL FITZPATRICK
38% PATRICK MURPHY
3% TOM LINGENFELTER
12% Do not know
Murphy's been trending well in ever other poll I've seen. He's still got a tough battle, but this particular poll can be somewhat discounted.