Thursday, November 30, 2006

Na Ga Ha Pen

Though, if true I have much more respect for this effort than I previously did:

The bipartisan Iraq Study Group plans to recommend withdrawing nearly all U.S. combat units from Iraq by early 2008 while leaving behind troops to train, advise and support the Iraqis, setting the first goal for a major drawdown of U.S. forces, sources familiar with the proposal said yesterday.

The commission plan would shift the U.S. mission in Iraq to a secondary role as the fragile Baghdad government and its security forces take the lead in fighting a Sunni insurgency and trying to halt sectarian violence. As part of major changes in the U.S. presence, sources said, the plan recommends embedding U.S. soldiers directly in Iraqi security units starting as early as next month to improve leadership and effectiveness.

The call to pull out combat brigades by early 2008 would be more a conditional goal than a firm timetable, predicated on the assumption that circumstances on the ground would permit it, according to the sources, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the commission's report will not be released until next week. But panel members concluded that it is vital to set a target to put pressure on Iraqi leaders to do more to assume responsibility for the security of their country.

"It's really about transitioning from a combat to a support role, and basically making very clear that this is no longer an open-ended commitment and we're going to get this done whether the Iraqis like it or not," said one of the sources. "Everybody understands that we're at the end of the road here."


I stand by my prediction: 120,000+ troops 2 F.U.s from now. Hope to be, as I always do, wrong.

Bullshit

Froomkin has a crazy idea.

Let me add that failing to call bullshit doesn't just fail to inform readers, it also requires the reporter to iternalize the bullshit, to continue to treat bullshit as if it might be true.

Maliki's Down for a Friedman

In another 6 months, things will be better.

WASHINGTON --Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki said Thursday that his country's forces would be able to assume security command by June 2007 -- which could allow the United States to start withdrawing its troops.

"I cannot answer on behalf of the U.S. administration but I can tell you that from our side our forces will be ready by June 2007," Maliki told ABC television after meeting President Bush on Thursday in Jordan.

Waiting for Ponies

My view on Iraq, sadly proven to be correct, has long been that the situation isn't going to solve itself, that Bush isn't going to draw down troops, and that we will be there until there is sufficient leadership to get us out. There was never much that Democrats out of power could do about that, and there isn't much more that Democrats in power will be able to do. It's been sad watching this whole affair play out over the years, knowing that for some reason political elites really seemed to believe that one or two F.U.'s away things would be better, that it was inevitable that Bush would start bringing troops home before the 2004... then 2006... election... that James Baker would somehow provide the leadership that most of them weren't willing to provide which would somehow fix stuff.

I fear the 2008 presidential election will play out similarly to the 2004 one. Prominent Democratic candidates will imagine they look "tough" on national security by continuing to essentially support our continuing presence in Iraq. Since Iraq will be the central campaign issue in 2008, no matter how many spider holes of denial some retreat into, the Democratic primary battle will once again be between Very Serious People who won't be pushing for an exit from Iraq, and Dirty Fucking Hippies Who Know Nothing who will be pushing for such an exit.

I don't quite know how it'll play out on the Republican side - probably mostly a battle over who can hate teh gay the most - but I'm not optimistic about it being especially fun on our side.

Our Khalilzad is Up

Two months ago we had:

The U.S. ambassador to Iraq warned on Friday that time is running out for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to contain the burgeoning sectarian bloodshed that threatens to plunge the country into civil war.

"He has a window of a couple months," said the ambassador, Zalmay Khalilzad. "If the perception is that this unity government is not able to deal with this issue, then a big opportunity would have been lost and it would take a long time to address this issue."


So, now a couple of months are over. Khalilzad has since quit. And Bush says Maliki's still the man.

Their Brand is Crisis

Jeremy Rosner, last seen screwing up Bolivia, tells us what we must do:

The new Democratic Congress needs to provide the vigorous oversight of the war their Republican predecessors never provided. But they also need to avoid pushing for funding cut-offs that could be cast as undermining the troops (and which would in any event merely be veto bait). And they need to push for an end-game that moves gradually, doing what we can to build up Iraq’s infrastructure and professionalize its military and police forces, acknowledging that we bear some moral responsibility for Iraq’s growing chaos.


In other words, stay the course.

Question

Why is Kenneth Pollack on the teevee?

Yurp

I miss the days when a favorite topic of conservative bloggers was about how the ALMIGHTY DOLLAR was CRUSHING THE EURO.

$1.32 per Euro now. Don't plan any trips to Yurp.

Meanwhile

The McCain/Lieberman war goes on:

BAGHDAD (AFP) - Baghdad's overflowing morgues have welcomed another grim daily harvest of bullet-riddled corpses as Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki met US
President George W. Bush and vowed to halt the violence.
ADVERTISEMENT

Iraqi security officials said they had recovered the bodies of 58 murder victims in Baghdad over the previous 24 hours -- a US spokeswoman confirmed 49 -- and that a mass grave holding 28 corpses was found north of the city.

Bloggity Blog

Ann Althouse is mad at Andrew Sullivan for his breach of netiquette. Since Andy won't provide a link to her, I will.

Iraq Forever

I've been saying it all along, but no one listens to me.

AMMAN, Jordan, Nov. 30 -- President Bush delivered a staunch endorsement of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki Thursday morning and dismissed calls for U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq as unrealistic, following a summit meeting in which the two leaders discussed speeding up the turnover of security responsibilities.


Our political class has long assumed that this situation would magically right itself after another Friedman or two. It won't.

Fresh Thread

Kinks - All Day and All of the Night



Anyone else having problems accessing big chunks of the internets?

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Two Friedmans From Now

I'll add myself to my little calendar of predictions/deadlines/timetables.

Two Friedmans from now there will be 120,000+ US troops in Iraq.

Na Ga Do It

No one listens to me, but for the millionth time this isn't going to happen.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 29 — The bipartisan Iraq Study Group reached a consensus on Wednesday on a final report that will call for a gradual pullback of the 15 American combat brigades now in Iraq but stop short of setting a firm timetable for their withdrawal, according to people familiar with the panel’s deliberations.

The report, unanimously approved by the 10-member panel, led by James A. Baker III and Lee H. Hamilton, is to be delivered to President Bush next week. It is a compromise between distinct paths that the group has debated since March, avoiding a specific timetable, which has been opposed by Mr. Bush, but making it clear that the American troop commitment should not be open-ended. The recommendations of the group, formed at the request of members of Congress, are nonbinding.

A person who participated in the commission’s debate said that unless the government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki believed that Mr. Bush was under pressure to pull back troops in the near future, “there will be zero sense of urgency to reach the political settlement that needs to be reached.”

The report recommends that Mr. Bush make it clear that he intends to start the withdrawal relatively soon, and people familiar with the debate over the final language said the implicit message was that the process should begin sometime next year.


Barring tremendous political leadership by, well, our political leaders we aren't leaving. Leaving is losing. Bush has made this clear.

"Final Battle of Baghdad"

I don't know if Joe Scar, Joke Line, Mike Crowley, and Pat Buchanan know a damn thing or if they're talking out their asses, but tonight on Scar's show they all seem to think Bush is going to quadruple down and have a final "major climax" by going after al-Sadr.

Macaca!

Discussing the decline and fall of George Felix Allen Jr. last night I was reminded of when I first read the teaser over at Not Larry Sabato, which at the time was:

George Allen steps in it. Video coming soon.

What George Allen just did, sent a chill down my spine. Video coming....

Developing...

UPDATE: I'm verifying with sources deep inside the Allen campaign. This may be the end of any Allen for President campaign.


Indeed it was.

Fristed

T.A. Frank isn't thrilled about Dr. Frist's return to medicine.


My guess is this little guy isn't either.



I think it's fitting to say goodbye to Fristy by re-running a review of his tribute to his genetic code, Good People Beget Good People:

This is a fascinating study of the extraordinary mix of in-breeding, animal sacrifice, and corruption required to produce the world's worst human being. Coming from a family of mildly despicable cheats, the Frists had a leg up on normal human beings...but it still took an enormous amount of laboratory work and careful training to produce not just a self-involved twit but an unspeakable monster.

This book is Frankenstein of our century, a marvellous account of the line between science and morality, and the "Dr. Frist" character is a chilling reminder of the true evil inherent in all humanity...even if readers will find Dr. Frist himself an impossibly overdrawn character. Surely, no actual human could be so evil. Neverthless, he stands like Shelley's monster as an emblem of the path we as a species must never take.

By damning this "Dr. Frist" character and the bizarre process that created him, this sterling work serves as a moral guide, a hope for the future.

Postponed

CNN sez Maliki's talks with Bush postponed until tomorrow.

Not sure what's going on with all of this.

Reality on the Ground

I suppose Powell might still have some ability to move the conversation forward, but this has always been the problem. The Iraq war has always been packaged purely for domestic political consumption, and specifically for the glorification of Commander Codpiece. The "rebuilding of the schools," the obsession with first "dead enders" then "foreign fighters" and "al Qaeda in Iraq," the constant turning of corners, the denial of the existence of civil war, were all an elaborate reality denial dance. What made it worse was they believed their own propaganda.

Thanks for all you've done for us, oh Wise Men of Washington.

Health Care for the Young Ones

Responding to various commenters and emailers, as a means of fixing the horrible health care system in this country it is true that a group plan for young people is probably a terrible idea, except to the extent that it could blossom into something for everyone. But as a means of fixing the problem that younger people don't have portable health insurance it's possibly an excellent idea. Lots of 20somethings either don't have jobs with health insurance or have to make life decisions based on having to find a job which will give them health insurance.

Wanker of the Day

The Ole Perfesser.


...adding, I've found it to be a fairly consistent them among many gun nut libertarians (who I call "might makes right" libertarians) that they fantasize about the breakdown of civil order and the rise of Road Warrior style society. It's weird. Especially since most of them are such losers.

Chumps

Anyway, just echoing Glenn Greenwald the whole Pelosi/Hastings/Harman "controversy" which every single liberal commentator felt the need to chime in on was a big fact-free fake controversy likely set up by Harman supporters. Whatever the merits of Hastings, there was never anything coming from Pelosi's office suggesting that he was her desginated man for the job, just speculation turned rumor turned "fact."

But, good job everyone who helped fan the flames on this one. You helped one Dem contingent to try to pull the rug out from under Pelosi about 3 minutes after she was voted into a job she doesn't even have yet.

Iraq'd:

CNN:

Lawmakers and cabinet ministers loyal to anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have suspended their membership in Iraq's government because of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's summit with President Bush, The Associated Press reports.

My Life

I don't know how easy or feasible or affordable, but setting up a portable group health plan for young people seems like a pretty good idea.

Chumps

Too tired to write my chumps post.

You'll have to wait.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Home

Well, that was amusing. Rock on.

Even More Thread



From NotAtrios

More thread

(I just get twitchy when they get over 800.)

Signed,
Not Atrios

Fresh Thread

On the road. If you miss me you can watch me here, or you can just chat amongst yourselves.

Centrism

Just adding on to Ezra, I have hostility to the concept of "centrism" for a variety of reasons. First, except on a few mostly social issues there really isn't all that much which can be neatly fit into a left-center-right-axis. Mostly centrism is used be elite opinionmakers to denote sensible, set off against real or (more often) imagined "extreme" positions which are of course wrong because anything "extreme" has to be wrong. Except, perhaps, invading countries for no good reason.


What's sensible? Anything elite centrist opinionmakers think is sensible! So, the political center is an artificial concept created by people who imagine they're centrists because they know they're sensible and they certainly aren't extreme. The fact that such ideas do not have majority support, or don't really fit on the center of some political axis, is irrelevant. It's the sensible center, as they define it.

Whe Kevin Drum writes:

I'd argue, for example, that good analysis supports a fairly extreme view on Social Security (just leave it alone for now)...


He's buying into this "centrism as centrist opinionmakers define it." But how on Earth can wanting to maintain the status quo on a long-existing program which has tremendous majority support be described as an "extreme view"? But all "sensible centrists" know that Social Security is doomed, benefits must be cut, and private accounts are probably a peachy idea, so this becomes a "centrist position."

Your Modern GOP

Tancredo:

WASHINGTON - Rep. Tom Tancredo, the leader of the anti-illegal immigration faction in the U.S. House, spent a recent weekend at The Breakers in Palm Beach.

Ninety miles to the south, he found a symbol to bolster his belief that unfettered immigration is endangering the United States: Miami, he told a conservative online news site, ``has become a Third World country.''

In South Florida to attend Restoration Weekend, a gathering of conservative activists, the Colorado Republican, whose district includes suburbs of Denver, pointed to Miami as an example of how ''the nature of America can be changed by uncontrolled immigration,'' the story says.

''Look at what has happened to Miami,'' the WorldNetDaily quotes Tancredo as saying in an interview. ``It has become a Third World country. You just pick it up and take it and move it someplace. You would never know you're in the United States of America. You would certainly say you're in a Third World country.''

Picking a Winner

Needless to say, if Iraq isn't in a civil war now (it is), it will be when we actively take sides.

Everybody's Fault But His

So, it's Europe's fault that things are shit in Afghanistan and it's Maliki's fault that things are shit in Iraq.

This is the thinking the Sensible Centrists have allowed to bloom. Thanks guys.

Two Years

Watching some of the speech this morning it became clear that our country is run by a shockingly stupid, somewhat delusional, and very messianic person who has downloaded large doses of extreme wingnuttery deep into his brain stem.

Two more years...

Monday, November 27, 2006

Late Night

Kinks - Celluloid Heroes

Great Moments in Daily Show Writing


Stewart: Certainly from an Iraqi perspective, what this is called makes no difference.

Oliver: Oh, really? If you have lost a loved one in this conflict, and statistically if you're an Iraqi you have, wouldn't you rather know it wasn't in a Civil War but rather a territorial arglebargle of regional qualms?

Stewart: 3,000 Iraqis died just this month. To argue over what to call it seems like semantic quibbling.

Oliver: Semantic quibbling? Oh, well, I wouldn't call it that.

Stewart: What would you call it?

Oliver: A minor linguistic flareup between two parties of different terminological points of view.

Stewart: It's really the same thing.

Oliver: It's "same-ey." For now let's agree to disagree on how we state our agreements. Agreed?

Baghdad Bob Says Saddam Is Winning

I really don't understand our contemporary press.


...Washington Post flashback on the Hummer Which Threatened Civilization:

I will say for the Washington Post, we have not labeled it sex. I have asked around to see why not or see what’s the thinking on that and really our reporters have not filed that. We try to avoid the labels, particularly when the elected government itself does not call its hummer sex.
[/satire]

Pogroms

Thanks Oh Wise Men of Washington. Thank you St. McCain. Thank you Last Honest Man. Thanks oh Glorious Keepers of the Flame of the Vital Center. Thanks Jon "Beware the Dirty Fucking Hippies" Chait. Thank you Richard Cohen and Margaret "Whatever Colin does, I’ll go with" Carlson. Thank you oh self-glorifying stewards of our national discourse for sending us down this path. Thank you Joe Lieberman Weekly for being wrong about everything all the time, and therefore making it easy for me to choose a direction every morning.

Pogroms.

The U.S. military is no longer able to defeat a bloody insurgency in western Iraq or counter al-Qaeda's rising popularity there, according to newly disclosed details from a classified Marine Corps intelligence report that set off debate in recent months about the military's mission in Anbar province.

The Marines recently filed an updated version of that assessment that stood by its conclusions and stated that as of mid-November, the problems in troubled Anbar province have not improved, a senior U.S. intelligence official said yesterday. "The fundamental questions of lack of control, growth of the insurgency and criminality" remain the same, the official said.

The Marines' August memo, a copy of which was shared with The Washington Post, is far more bleak than some officials suggested when they described it in late summer. The report describes Iraq's Sunni minority as "embroiled in a daily fight for survival," fearful of "pogroms" by the Shiite majority and increasingly dependent on al-Qaeda in Iraq as its only hope against growing Iranian dominance across the capital.

We Don't Need No Education

I agree with Yglesias' basic suggestion that the overly long summer vacation for kids, at least for the younger ones, is an anachronism. Having said that, I wouldn't support sticking kids in barely air conditioned classrooms for more of the same over the summer months, but instead spend a couple of months with more of an "educational summer camp" model.

But, given that I have no kids and no experience teaching the young ones I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Chait Droppings

Holy shit.

Please, just cut his mic. Just cut all their mics. They're hurting us.

Just Blow The Place Up

A certain segment of our population spends their time touting all of the various "hate America" type things which bubble out of the Arab press. It never occurs to them that people in the Middle East can, you know, find the mirror image in our press, whether its Glenn Reynolds' new favorite saying, "more rubble, less trouble," or Dick Cheney's favorite radio host saying we should blow the place up.

Goodbye to Dick?

Nah, I don't believe it. Obviously it would make a lot of sense, but that has never figured greatly into the Bush decision making process.

Iraq'd

Michael Ware explains Iraq to Kyra Phillips.

heh-indeedy

Greenwald:

There is nothing "credible" about Harman. Yes, she is smart and knowledgeable, but she has been wrong about everything that matters, particularly in the intelligence area. But she was wrong in exactly the same way that the Beltway geniuses and The New Republic and David Broder and Fred Hiatt were wrong. For that reason, they don't want her to be repudiated and rejected because that would constitute a repudiation and rejection of them. So they build up and glorify the "credible," responsible Harman because she represents them, and they hate Pelosi in advance for rejecting Harman for being wrong about everything because they feel rejected by that choice.

As a result, Pelosi and her opposition to Harman have to be belittled and removed from the substantive arena. Harman supported the most disastrous strategic decision in our nation's history and repeatedly defended the administration's worst excesses. That ought to be disqualifying on its face. But the Beltway media are guilty of the same crimes, so they want to pretend that Harman -- just like Steny Hoyer -- did nothing wrong and the only reason not to anoint her to her Rightful Place is because of petty, womanly personality disputes that have no place in the public arena.

For the same reason, they decree that Pelosi must prove that she's a "responsible" and serious leader. How does she do that? By embracing the Beltway establishment types, including those -- especially those -- who have been so wrong about so many things.

The Moral Bankruptcy of Modern Punditry

Yglesias writes:

The primary question facing America's pundit class today is how to avoid responsibility for the situation in Iraq, which is almost certain to get much worse over the next two or three years.


Of course, most of them are responsible. And it's reprehensible that they're engaging in word games which ensure that we will continue to "stay the course" because George W. Bush thinks we're "winning."

Deck of Cards

When the history of this era is written, I hope it is remembered that the President of the United States created a deck of cards with "bad guys" on it. The media, rather than seeing this is a bizarre and infantile thing, thought it was wonderful. So wonderful that they dutifully printed the graphics on their newscasts, and created lovely interactive web features around it.

We are ruled by dangerously silly people.

The Scary Left

I'm a bit more in agreement with Max than with Matt, though I think they're probably more in agreement than Max makes it sound.

Whatever my opinion on the merits of any particular policy, the self-defined sensible center has long shot itself in the foot by spending more time marginalizing opinions to their left while announcing loudly their willingness to embrace and negotiate those on the right. That ensures the compromise negotiated by the Sensible Technorats is way to the right. And that's when Democrats are in charge. When Republicans are in charge, they lock the Sensible Technorats out and put the right wing nutters in charge.

Having said that, as a strategic plan for getting things done instead of a rhetorical strategy ensure a monopoly on "liberal" thought in the marketplace of ideas it isn't such a bad thing. You know, you'd better drop your resistance to higher CAFE standards or Al Gore's going to be the next EPA chief. Still, it does continue to start from a position of compromise which if nothing else makes you appear to be rather weak.

Human Grocery Store

I suppose we should be thankful that NBC is now calling the civil war in Iraq the civil war in Iraq, but it's rather disheartening that it took them this long.

Prodigious Leaker

Roll Call (sub. req.) has a story about how Democratic Senate aides are rather unhappy with The Last Honest Man's hiring of McCain loyalist, "prodigious leaker" to the press, and extraordinarily silly person Marshall Wittmann. Basically, they know Wittmann's loyalties are elsewhere and he'll likely leak everything both to the press and to his Republican pals so they won't be able to actually talk when he's in the room.

If I Can Make It There

I'll be in NYC at the Museum of Television and Radio for a Very Exciting Event, 6:30-8 tomorrow. It'll be webcast too, so you can all gaze at my beauty.

"Cyber Monday"

We went through this last year, but if there was ever any doubt about the influence of the PR industry on news coverage it was swept away by the full embrace of the mythical "Cyber Monday" as the online counterpart to "Black Friday."

It's just some shit they made up. Stop talking about it.

Stay the Course

Thanks oh Wise Men of Washington. Thanks St. John McCain. Thanks Last Honest Man. Thanks Joe Lieberman Weekly. Thanks oh Glorious Keepers of the Flame of the Vital Center.

Wankers all.

Late Night

The Kinks - Village Green Preservation Society

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Over There

Herbert:

With no obvious personal stake in the war in Iraq, most Americans are indifferent to its consequences. In an interview last week, Alex Racheotes, a 19-year-old history major at Wesleyan University in Connecticut, said: “I definitely don’t know anyone who would want to fight in Iraq. But beyond that, I get the feeling that most people at school don’t even think about the war. They’re more concerned with what grade they got on yesterday’s test.”

His thoughts were echoed by other students, including John Cafarelli, a 19-year-old sophomore at the University of New Hampshire, who was asked if he had any friends who would be willing to join the Army. “No, definitely not,” he said. “None of my friends even really care about what’s going on in Iraq.”

This indifference is widespread. It enables most Americans to go about their daily lives completely unconcerned about the atrocities resulting from a war being waged in their name. While shoppers here are scrambling to put the perfect touch to their holidays with the purchase of a giant flat-screen TV or a PlayStation 3, the news out of Baghdad is of a society in the midst of a meltdown.


When I was an undergraduate student, at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, it wasn't that way for us. I knew two people who went to Gulf War the First quite well, had many other friends who expected to go but fortunately didn't have to, and was within a couple of degrees of separation of dozens who went. The point is pretty much everyone on campus knew people who went. A lot of students were in the National Guard because it helped pay for college. Some of them went to Iraq.

At the school I was last teaching, Bryn Mawr College, it was as Hebert described.* No student I talked to knew anyone who was going to Iraq (I'm sure there were students for whom that wasn't the case). It just wasn't in the air. It was something for other people.

Anyway, my point is that I'm sure there are college students for whom Iraq is very real, and whose friends/boyfriends/girlfriends have served. But the farther you get away from elite institutions, the more likely that's the case.


*Clarifying - there were certainly students who were much less apathetic than Hebert describes, but it was still something for other people.

When the Friedmans Come Due

At some point I started keeping track of various Friedmanesque predictions/deadlines. For those who wish to follow at home here's what we have coming ahead. The dates posted are the dates the predictions/deadlines are due.

11/30/06 Zalmay Khalilzad sez Maliki has a window of a couple of months.
11/18/06 Joe Klein says we should give Iraq "One last shot." Time ambiguous, so I gave him a Friedman.
11/19/06 Lee Hamilton says next 3 months are critical.
12/31/06 Joe Lieberman says significant troop withdrawals begin.
1/06/07 Senator Warner sez "In two or three months if this thing hasn’t come to fruition and this level of violence is not under control," Warner said, "I think it’s a responsibility of our government to determine: Is there a change of course we should take?"
03/05/07 General George Casey says "This is a decisive period for everyone and everyone knows it. The next six months will determine the future of Iraq>"
05/20/07 Obama says reduction should start in 4 to 6 months.
05/26/07 Cornyn says we need another 4 to 6 months to get this right.
05/26/07 McCaffrey says the next 4 to 6 months are crucial.
06/12/07 McCain sez we're going to win or lose this thing within the next several months.
12/31/07 Joe Lieberman says half the troops will likely be home, with full withdrawal possible.

Black Bars

It appears the White House has weird thick black bars at the bottom of lots of videos, not just the mission accomplished one.

How odd.

McCain

Kudos to Matt Welch for managing to reveal some truths about St. McCain without falling into the usual trap of trying to argue about where he actually fits on the imaginary political spectrum and instead just telling us what the dude thinks about things.
Look, people who advocate adding "personal accounts" to Social Security are just stupid people. Really, just morons. There's no reason to do it. There's no reason to take any part of Social Security contributions and put them in a little fund account with my name on it. If you think some Social Security contributions should be invested in the stock market (I don't) to raise returns overall, then it can be stuck into an index fund or managed by a fund manager or whatever. I still think that's a bad idea, but there's a rationale for it. There's no rationale for dividing that up into millions of individual accounts. There's no rationale for letting individuals "control their own money" by letting them choose across some finite number of managed funds. Social Security is a lovely program which works just fine and really needs no changes other than extraordinarily nonurgent tweaks to the tax formula at some point. And, no, there's no need for modest benefit cuts. There's no need for means testing it. There's no need for any of these things The Serious People like Bob Kerrey want to do. There's no need to strike a "grand bargain" which combines some stupid things with some smart things because there's no need to do so. Leave it alone.

There is no problem with the Social Security system. People who continue to argue that there is - and that the problem can be "solved" with the magic private accounts fairy - either have broken brains or are attempting to push an agenda for ideological reasons or for personal enrichment for themselves and their kind.

Mission Accomplished

Someone sent this to me a few days ago and I can't remember who it was, so apologies for not giving credit.

Anyway, if one goes to Mission Accomplished Day at Whitehouse.gov and then clicks on the video link there's something interesting.


Notice anything weird? The black bar at the bottom of the video?

They clipped off the top quarter of the video, and pushed the rest up, in order to hide the Mission Accomplished banner.


Ah, found it:

Iraq'd

John Roberts explains the situation in Iraq to Howard Kurtz.

Joke Line

Well, almost six months later Joke Line kinda-sorta-wish-washily thinks maybe it's time to leave Iraq. Though, one imagines, only in his not-actually-specified way and not in the horribly unserious way any Democrats would propose.

Even More Friedmans

Senator Cornyn:

We have about another 4 to 6 months to get this right.


And then what?

yeeeeargh


Cornyn also said he wanted to send more troops, that the number of troops should be decided by the generals, but that he disagreed with Abizaid who thought it was a bad idea to send more troops.

Just kill me.

In For Another Friedman

On Meet the Press, General McCaffrey informed us that the next 4 to 6 months are crucial.

...he was on Meet the Press last on June 11. Here's what he said then:

MR. RUSSERT: The U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Khalilzad, had this to say to Der Spiegel magazine in Germany. "The next six months will be critical in terms of reining in the danger of civil war. If the government fails to achieve this, it will have lost its opportunity."

GEN. McCAFFREY: Yeah, well, thank God we've got that ambassador on the ground. He's going to be a huge part of our ability to coach this new emerging legitimate Iraqi government to achieve some...

MR. RUSSERT: But General, he seems to be saying that by the end of this year...

GEN. McCAFFREY: Yeah. I think so.

MR. RUSSERT: ...if we have not gotten control of this civil war, the Iraqi government will have lost its opportunity.

GEN. McCAFFREY: Yeah. I think between now and Christmas is the crucial time.


The endless cycle of Friedmans cannot be broken.

Conventional Wisdom

Mistah Kurtz:

The conventional wisdom is American troops resent the media's coverage of this war as too negative.


And that's about all you need to know about Howie.


...overall the segment was very good, with the Mighty Power of John Roberts' Truth Vanquishing the Truthiness of Mistah Kurtz. I'll put the clip up in a bit.

The Endless Cycle of Friedmans

Greenwald:

Is withdrawal -- whether incremental or total -- considered to be an "extreme view" that the Washington "centrists" have not only rejected but have excluded in advance even from consideration? That's what this article seems to suggest, and that would definitely be consistent with conventional Beltway wisdom -- that withdrawal is advocated only by the fringe radicals and far leftists (such as the individual whom Americans just knowingly installed as Speaker of the House).

There is nothing "centrist" about a Commission which decides in advance that it will not remove our troops from a war which is an unmitigated disaster and getting worse every day. It just goes without saying that if you invade and occupy a country and are achieving nothing good by staying, withdrawal must be one of the primary options considered when deciding what to do about the disaster.

Even if that is not the option ultimately chosen, a categorical refusal in advance to consider that option -- or to listen to experts who advocate it -- is not the work of a "centrist" body devoted to finding a solution to this war. If the Commission begins with the premise that we have to stay in Iraq and then only considers proposals for how to modify our strategy on the margins, that is anything but centrist. To the contrary, that is a close-minded -- and rather extremist -- commitment to the continuation of a war which most Americans have come to despise and want to see brought to an end.

Back in 2002, when the U.S. was debating whether to invade Iraq, those who opposed the invasion were, for that reason alone, dismissed as unserious morons and demonized as anti-American subversive hippies. Despite the fact that subsequent events have largely proven them to have been right, and that those who did the demonizing were the frivolous, unserious, know-nothing extremists, this narrative persists, so that -- even now, when most Americans have turned against this war -- the only way to avoid being an "extremist," and to be rewarded with the "centrist" mantle, is to support the continuation of this war in one form or another.


It's now lasted longer than [our participation in] WWII. Thanks to St. McCain, The Last Honest Man, the Wise Old Men of Washington, and the Glorious Keepers of the Flame of the Vital Center, we're on track to beat the Vietnam record. woohoo!

Snap

Booby Woodward just called Laura Bush a liar (not with that word of course). Funny.

...and the transcript just landed in my inbox:

LAURA BUSH, FIRST LADY: Andy Card, also went on television and said that's not true. And let me just say the one thing about that book: Those quote of mine, were in quotes, and the author didn't call me and fact check. And it just didn't happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KURTZ: Your response?

WOODWARD: Well, first of all, Andy Card, as you know, has gone on television and said the quotes are accurate. And that they did happen. And the first lady is saying that what she said and -- again, there is a way, and a habit they have in the White House of you write something and then they kind of pick it up one step, then they deny the version that they say you wrote.

Sunday Bobbleheads

Document the atrocities:

ABC’s “This Week” — Jordan’s King Abdullah II; Sens. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., and Dick Durbin, D-Ill.; supermodel Maggie Rizer. 1

CBS’ “Face the Nation” — Sens.-elect Bob Corker, R-Tenn., Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio.

NBC’s “Meet the Press” — California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger; Reps. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., and Ike Skelton, D-Mo.; retired Gens. Wayne Downing and Barry McCaffrey.

CNN’s “Late Edition” — Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Jack Reed, D-R.I.; Iraqi National Security Adviser Mowaffak al-Rubaie; former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger; former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski; Maryland Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele; Democratic strategist Donna Brazile.

“Fox News Sunday” — Reps. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y., Barney Frank, D-Mass., and John Dingell, D-Mich.; Sen. Trent Lott, R-Miss.; Joseph E. Robert Jr., chairman of Fight for Children.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

The Big Money

And Joe Lieberman's war continues:

BAGHDAD, Nov. 25 — The insurgency in Iraq is now self-sustaining financially, raising tens of millions of dollars a year from oil smuggling, kidnapping, counterfeiting, corrupt charities and other crimes that the Iraqi government and its American patrons have been largely unable to prevent, a classified United States government report has concluded.

The report, obtained by The New York Times, estimates that groups responsible for many of the insurgent and terrorist attacks are raising $70 million to $200 million a year from illegal activities. It says that $25 million to $100 million of the total comes from oil smuggling and other criminal activity involving the state-owned oil industry aided by “corrupt and complicit” Iraqi officials.

As much as $36 million a year comes from ransoms paid to save hundreds of kidnap victims in Iraq, the report said. It estimates that unnamed foreign governments — previously identified by senior American officials as including France and Italy — paid Iraqi kidnappers $30 million in ransom last year.


What was that you said, Joe? Oh yes, it was:

Does America have a good plan for doing this, a strategy for victory in Iraq? Yes we do.


Maybe Joe just didn't clap loudly enough.

The Straight Talk of St. John McCain

Says war is lost if his pony plan doesn't happy. Also says his pony plan is not going to happen. Says it's immoral to keep sending troops to Iraq if his pony plan doesn't happen. Also says his pony plan won't happen.


Truly bold, decisive, maverick leadership.

Checking Out

I'm not sure if Josh is right, but we do face a very real possibility that Bush will pretty much check out. He's always abandoned his failures to others. There's nothing left to campaign for. There's no agenda left to sell. He has no idea how to actually govern.


Gonna be a sad couple of years. Thanks oh wise men of Washington.

Meanwhile

In Joe Lieberman's war:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iraqi President Jalal Talabani postponed a trip to Iran set for Saturday as a wave of bloody sectarian reprisals swept through Iraq.

Talabani was slated to meet with Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday to discuss ways that Iran could help stabilize Iraq but the trip was delayed when officials shut down Baghdad's airport and imposed a strict curfew.

There were also reports that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was to attend.

Overnight, Sunni gunmen with possible links to al Qaeda in Iraq stormed two Shiite homes and killed 21 men from two families north of the Iraqi capital in Diyala province, an official with the Diyala Joint Coordination Center said Saturday.

Out

Hagel:

There will be no victory or defeat for the United States in Iraq. These terms do not reflect the reality of what is going to happen there. The future of Iraq was always going to be determined by the Iraqis -- not the Americans.

Iraq is not a prize to be won or lost. It is part of the ongoing global struggle against instability, brutality, intolerance, extremism and terrorism. There will be no military victory or military solution for Iraq. Former secretary of state Henry Kissinger made this point last weekend.

The time for more U.S. troops in Iraq has passed. We do not have more troops to send and, even if we did, they would not bring a resolution to Iraq. Militaries are built to fight and win wars, not bind together failing nations. We are once again learning a very hard lesson in foreign affairs: America cannot impose a democracy on any nation -- regardless of our noble purpose.

We have misunderstood, misread, misplanned and mismanaged our honorable intentions in Iraq with an arrogant self-delusion reminiscent of Vietnam. Honorable intentions are not policies and plans. Iraq belongs to the 25 million Iraqis who live there. They will decide their fate and form of government.

Friday, November 24, 2006

Meanwhile

Pony fails to appear. Sources say that the Last Honest Man was heard saying that the next six months in Iraq are critical.
Gunmen bent on revenge burned mosques and homes in a Sunni enclave of Baghdad on Friday as Iraq's leaders pleaded for calm, a day after the worst bomb attack since the U.S. invasion.

Some 30 people were killed, police said, as suspected Shi'ite militiamen rampaged for hours, untroubled by a curfew enforced in the capital by U.S. and Iraqi forces after bombs killed 202 people in the Shi'ite stronghold of Sadr City.

Four mosques and several houses were burned in a small Sunni part of the mainly Shi'ite Hurriya area in northwest Baghdad, Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Salem al-Zobaie told Reuters.

One witness said 14 people were killed in his mosque during Friday prayers: "It was attacked by rocket-propelled grenades," university teacher Imad al-Din al-Hashemi said. "When the gunmen moved on to attack another mosque, we evacuated the wounded."

Simple Answers to Simple Questions

Hilzoy asks:

I just have to ask: is there anything this administration does competently?


No.

This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

Serious

It was just about a year ago that Joe Lieberman wrote:

Does America have a good plan for doing this, a strategy for victory in Iraq? Yes we do. And it is important to make it clear to the American people that the plan has not remained stubbornly still but has changed over the years. Mistakes, some of them big, were made after Saddam was removed, and no one who supports the war should hesitate to admit that; but we have learned from those mistakes and, in characteristic American fashion, from what has worked and not worked on the ground. The administration's recent use of the banner "clear, hold and build" accurately describes the strategy as I saw it being implemented last week.

We are now embedding a core of coalition forces in every Iraqi fighting unit, which makes each unit more effective and acts as a multiplier of our forces. Progress in "clearing" and "holding" is being made. The Sixth Infantry Division of the Iraqi Security Forces now controls and polices more than one-third of Baghdad on its own. Coalition and Iraqi forces have together cleared the previously terrorist-controlled cities of Fallujah, Mosul and Tal Afar, and most of the border with Syria. Those areas are now being "held" secure by the Iraqi military themselves. Iraqi and coalition forces are jointly carrying out a mission to clear Ramadi, now the most dangerous city in Al-Anbar province at the west end of the Sunni Triangle.

Nationwide, American military leaders estimate that about one-third of the approximately 100,000 members of the Iraqi military are able to "lead the fight" themselves with logistical support from the U.S., and that that number should double by next year. If that happens, American military forces could begin a drawdown in numbers proportional to the increasing self-sufficiency of the Iraqi forces in 2006. If all goes well, I believe we can have a much smaller American military presence there by the end of 2006 or in 2007, but it is also likely that our presence will need to be significant in Iraq or nearby for years to come.


And Joe Klein almost six months ago.

What can the Democrats do? They can play politics or be responsible. The political option is to embrace "cut and run"; call for an immediate withdrawal, as Kerry did; and hope the public is so sick of Bush and sick of the war that it will punish the g.o.p. in the fall. But embracing defeat is a risky political strategy, especially for a party not known for its warrior ethic. In fact, the responsible path is the Democrats' only politically plausible choice: they will have to give yet another new Iraqi government one last shot to succeed. This time, U.S. military sources say, the measure of success is simple: Operation Forward Together, the massive joint military effort launched last week to finally try to secure Baghdad, has to work. If Baghdad isn't stabilized, the war is lost. "I know it's the cliche of the war," an Army counterinsurgency specialist told me last week. "But we'll know in the next six months—and this time, it'll be the last next six months we get."


I don't know how to break the endless cycle of Friedmans.

Liars

It is true. They lie, and they lie about things which should cause revulsion in decent people. They lie and people die, and St. McCain and the Last Honest Man and the rest of the Wise Old Men of Washington somehow manage to make it out of bed each day. I don't know what's wrong with their brains, but they don't seem to work as they should.

Taking Sides

I've long noticed a tendency of the American press to take the side of official US policy when covering foreign affairs. Basically, "our bastards" are given good press while other bastards are not.

I was struck by this little tidbit I just learned from CNN:

Most Shiite insurgents have given up violence and adapted to political process.


If by "political process" you mean "controlling the cops" there's a bit of truth to that, but only even barely. Well, not really at all.

We may be taking sides.

Something to be Thankful For

Leahy:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 23 — Seeking information about detention of terrorism suspects, abuse of detainees and government secrecy, Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee are reviving dozens of demands for classified documents that until now have been rebuffed or ignored by the Justice Department and other agencies.

“I expect real answers, or we’ll have testimony under oath until we get them,” Senator Patrick J. Leahy of Vermont, who will head the committee beginning in January, said in an interview this week. “We’re entitled to know these answers, and in many instances we don’t get them because people are hiding their mistakes. And that’s no excuse.”

Thursday, November 23, 2006

Fresh Thread

Tryptophan edition.

Meanwhile

Thanks St. McCain. Thanks Last Honest Man. Thanks Oh Wise Men Of Washington. Thanks Oh Keepers of the Flames of the Vital Ceter.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A series of car bombs killed 30 people and wounded 95 in a Shi'ite militia stronghold in Baghdad on Thursday and gunmen mounted an audacious daylight raid on a Shi'ite-run government ministry.

Three apparently coordinated car bombs and a mortar blast in different parts of Sadr City neighborhood destroyed whole streets, leaving bloodied remains amid mangled vehicle wrecks in one the worst bomb attacks in the capital this month.



...update
:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- At least 100 people were killed and at least 125 wounded on Thursday in a string of bombing attacks in Baghdad's Sadr City, police said.

There were conflicting reports on the death toll. Iraq's Health Ministry said 100 were killed and 200 wounded. Police said 115 were killed and 125 were wounded.

Happy Thanksgiving

Cook. Drink. Eat.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Fresh Thread

Green Day - American Idiot

Evening Thread

M. Ward - Right in the Head.





Uh, Terrorists?

You can stop trying to influence the elections now.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- More than 140 bodies have been found dumped across Baghdad over the past three days, police said Wednesday.

Police said 52 bullet-riddled bodies were found Wednesday, with 20 of them blindfolded, tied up and possibly tortured.

Police also discovered 29 bodies on Tuesday and 60 on Monday.

The dead are thought to be victims of Sunni-Shiite sectarian revenge killings.

Afternoon Thread

Norfolk & Western - A Gilded Age




heh-indeedy

Lawrence O'Donnell:

Advocating war is easier when you and your family are not endangered by it. I've reached a Rangel-like breaking point with my TV pundit colleagues who championed the Iraq war and now say we can't leave even if we went there for the wrong reasons. For every one of them, I have a simple question: Why aren't you in Iraq? Or why did you avoid combat in your generation's war? The one unifying characteristic that all of us men in make-up on political chat shows share is fear of combat. Every one of us has done everything we can to avoid combat or even being fitted for a military uniform. Just like George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Dick Cheney, we are all combat cowards. It takes a very special kind of combat coward to advocate combat for others. It's the kind of thing that can get you as angry as Charlie Rangel.

More Center

Aside from my general belief that the concept of the political center has become mostly meaningless in recent years, to the extent that there's any basis for it does anyone, including Joe Lieberman, really believe that "both parties are in danger of abandoning the political center."

I have a hard time even coming up with fantasy proposals which would reflect some crazy run-to-the-left action by the Democrats. Is Dennis Kucinich going to propose disbanding the army? Are marginal tax rates going to be raised to Eisenhower-era levels? It's difficult to imagine that anything other than a move towards Clinton-era status quo on most issues is on the table.

Lieberman's a lying politician, so the fact that he continues to lie to paint himself as the savior of the country is no surprise, but nobody else who expects to be taken seriously should help him propagate these myths.

Center

I do not think that word means what Ed Kilgore thinks it means.

Hack

There's something cute about self-described libertarians being reliable conduits for government propaganda.

Immoral

So, now St. John McCain says it would be immoral to ask soldiers to go to Iraq unless his magical pony plan is adopted.

They Write Letters

Michael Sokolove writes to Pool Boy:

Memo to Jim VandeHei: In a mere 48 hours you've gone from a guy doing an interesting thing to a guy I can't wait to see fail. Your victory lap before you've written a written a story or cashed a paycheck -- your boast that you'll be better than the New York Times and Washington Post -- your revelation that the Post came in with an "unprecedented" offer to induce you to stay but you told them to stick it -- and especially your gloating that big-name journalists have come "begging" for jobs (and the ones lucky enough to be hired will be on TV, too!) is really, uh, classless. It's bad out there if you hadn't noticed. Count your blessings on this Thanksgiving, and difficult as it may be, try not to enjoy all that groveling too much.

Overnight

Holiday schedule here.

Portastatic - Song for a Clock

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Dick

Hilzoy and Greg Mitchell smack Cohen around some more.

Liberal Losers

Just thought I'd remind you that Bush. Was. Right.

Freedom in Afghanistan, say goodbye Taliban
Free elections in Iraq, Saddam Hussein locked up
Osama’s staying underground, Al Qaida now is finding out
America won’t turn and run once the fighting has begun
Libya turns over nukes, Lebanese want freedom, too
Syria is forced to leave, don’t you know that all this means

Chorus
Bush was right!
Bush was right!
Bush was right!

Democracy is on the way, hitting like a tidal wave
All over the middle east, dictators walk with shaky knees
Don’t know what they’re gonna do,
their worst nightmare is coming true
They fear the domino effect, they’re all wondering who’s next

Repeat Chorus

Ted Kennedy – wrong!
Cindy Sheehan – wrong!
France – wrong!
Zell Miller – right!

Economy is on the rise kicking into overdrive
Angry liberals can't believe it's cause of W's policies
Unemployment's staying down, Democrats are wondering how
Revenue is going up, can you say "Tax Cuts"

Repeat Chorus

Cheney was right, Condi was right,
Rummy was right, Blair was right
You were right, we were right, “The Right” was right and
Bush was right
Bush was right

Comedy Gold

Indeed. "Centrist" is just a word which has come to mean "someone who is smart and sensible like me."

Breaking Green Room Omerta

Robert Reich violates the rules:

I talked with John McCain Sunday morning in the green room just before “This Week.” I asked him why he continued to call for more troops for Iraq when he must know it's a political non-starter. He said he thought it important for the morale of the troops.


And that straight talk express keeps on going...

More on the Question Below

Judging from comments people are misunderstanding my question. I'm not wondering why Dick Cheney wanted to go to war with Iraq, or the neocons and the PNAC crowd (though, admittedly, years later I still don't actually know why they wanted to go to war with Iraq). I'm wondering about the support from people I think of as, while not necessarily entirely sharing my worldview, roughly occupying the same political space as I do. I'm talking about the people who bought into the "it's a noble mission to go topple a bad dictator and then rebuild the country as wonderful Democracy as a way of showing the world the power and rightness of American benevolence" line. I'm not sure how many people like that existed in the country at large, but there were certainly a lot of people like that in the world of elite liberal punditry.

And Then It All Went Wrong

There's one thing I've long given President Bush credit for. Unsurprisingly he later shit all over that, too, but at the time it was the right thing. Immediately after 9/11 the basic narrative which was in part encouraged by Bush's rhetoric was that Afghanistan had been taken over by some bad people who attacked us, we're going to go over there and rescue the poor people in Afghanistan from those bad people, then we're going rebuild that country and turn it into a tremendous place.

And then... axis of evil and Iraq.

One thing which has long puzzled me is why Afghanistan wasn't enough for all the "liberal hawks" and people like Richard Cohen who wanted "therapeutic violence" (Spank them! Spank them!). The Beinarts of the world wanted a war and a grand humanitarian mission. They had one. It was Afghanistan. It was justifiable. We went and kicked some ass. And then we abandoned the grand humanitarian mission and went chasing after a shiny new war.

Why wasn't Afghanistan enough? Why were people who tried to point out that maybe we should stick around and try to fix that country before we went and busted up another one considered to be unserious dirty fucking hippies?

We had a chance to do all the things the Quiet Americans wanted us to do. Invade a country, get rid of their bad leaders, pave the streets with gold, and create a wonderful paradise which could be an example for the world.

Why couldn't we do that in Afghanistan?

Shorter Richard Cohen

I would've opposed the war if it wasn't for those dirty fucking hippies.

As for the bit about oil, the president himself has recently been saying we have to stay in Iraq because of the oil.

Arab Winter

Big Media Matt keeps getting smarter.

But still, something must be said. Indeed, the editors of The New Republic have convened a "special issue" dedicated to pondering that sad country. It features, among other things, an unsigned editorial observing that "at this point, it seems almost beside the point to say this: The New Republic deeply regrets its early support for this war." And, well, so do I regret my support for it. But what is one to do to make up for it? Mostly, nothing can be done. At least, however, when surveying a fiasco one can attempt to learn something about what went wrong and change one's thinking in the future. Such a change in thinking is precisely why I, at least, having fallen for the Iraq boondoggle one time, was not seduced by the siren song of the Arab Spring. Those of us who chose not to get fooled again were, of course, heartily condemned by a March 2005 TNR editorial that espied a "certain grudging quality" to liberal takes on events in Lebanon. "So far," they sniffed, Daily Kos "has featured only two short posts on Lebanon's equally stirring Cedar Revolution -- and both were notable mostly for their pessimism." This was, perhaps, the measured version of the April 11, 2005, take offered by the magazine's owner and editor-in-chief, Martin Peretz. He analyzed "The Politics of Churlishness" in a cover story dedicated to the proposition that "if George W. Bush were to discover a cure for cancer, his critics would denounce him for having done it unilaterally, without adequate consultation, with a crude disregard for the sensibilities of others." And, about sixteen months later, of course, these voices so eager to condemn liberals for not celebrating the new freedom of the Lebanese were the loudest in clamoring for Lebanese blood.

"As we pore over the lessons of this misadventure" in Iraq, explained the magazine in last week's reassessment, "we do not conclude that our past misjudgments warrant a rush into the cold arms of 'realism.'" Given what else is said in the editorial and in the special issue, it's fair to interpret this as meaning that, in surveying the scene, they conclude nothing in particular. For my part, at a minimum I've concluded that it's a mistake to entrust the cause of American idealism and Arab reform to a movement led by people who plainly loathe Arabs (Palestinians "behave like lemmings" wrote Peretz two weeks ago before observing last week that Iraqis now lack "even the bare rudiments of civilizations") and couldn't care less about their well-being except insofar as pretense to caring is a useful club with which to batter domestic political opponents.

The McCain Plan

Well, he's the prominent politician who was advocating we send 20,000 more troops. If that happens, it'll be his war. Hope he likes it.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 20 — Pentagon officials conducting a review of Iraq strategy are considering a substantial but temporary increase in American troop levels and the addition of several thousand more trainers to work with Iraqi forces, a senior Defense Department official said Monday.

The idea, dubbed the “surge option” by some officials, would involve increasing American forces by 20,000 troops or more for several months in the hope of improving security, especially in Baghdad. That would mark a sharp rise over the current baseline of 144,000 troops.

The Stupidest People on the Internets

Not my trolls after all. It's the people who run Hotsoup.com:

Where else on else on the Internet do people of opposing views mix things up?


Yes, before our wise overlords at hotsoup came along there was no political debate on the internet.

morons.

They Say Go

So why don't we go?

More importantly, why the hell would we want to stay?

Absurd

I know we're supposed to get upset about this stuff because of civil liberties issues, but frankly I get more upset about it because of the absurdity and what it suggests about the intelligence of our rulers:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 20 — An antiterrorist database used by the Defense Department in an effort to prevent attacks against military installations included intelligence tips about antiwar planning meetings held at churches, libraries, college campuses and other locations, newly disclosed documents show.

One tip in the database in February 2005, for instance, noted that “a church service for peace” would be held in the New York City area the next month. Another entry noted that antiwar protesters would be holding “nonviolence training” sessions at unidentified churches in Brooklyn and Manhattan.

The Defense Department tightened its procedures earlier this year to ensure that only material related to actual terrorist threats — and not peaceable First Amendment activity — was included in the database.


Someone at some level in this administration was embracing absurdly Nixonian levels of paranoia at a time when there was no justification for it. No, I'm not saying that Nixon's various abuses were justified, but during that time there was at least genuine social turmoil. Think of the time and money spent on monitoring elderly Quakers.

Monday, November 20, 2006

Get Rid of the Dollar Bill

I don't care how many hot and sexy ex-presidents they put on the dollar coin, people will still think they're post office tokens until you get rid of the bill.

Oh, and what's up with the penny? Get rid of that, too.

And Dear Mr. President, There are too many states nowadays. Please eliminate three.

Even More Thread

I got nothin'.

But What Will You Say One F.U. From Now?

Obama:

CHICAGO - Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, who is contemplating a run for the presidency, on Monday called for a "gradual and substantial" reduction of U.S. forces from
Iraq that would begin in four to six months.


The basic content of what Obama is saying, divorced from the larger debate, is fine, but as to how it plays in the current debate it's not fine. It allows us to wait around one more Friedman... and then something will happen. Except it won't happen. Troops will not start coming home 4-6 months from now. And, most likely, 4-6 months from now Obama won't be saying "bring them home now," though I've put him on my little calendar and will make sure to check back then and let you know.

The thing is that "bring them home now" doesn't really mean now. It doesn't mean that thousands of troops start boarding transport planes for the trip home. It just means that the focus shifts from staying to leaving, and the latter slowly begins to happen. Every time someone punts that action for yet another Friedman, it helps to ensure that the end of the war will always be a Friedman away.

STFU

AJ writes:

I honestly have no idea how people can get away with saying things like "the United States and Britain have never attempted a truly comprehensive policy on Iraq," "We have to help Iraq's politicians put the country's unity above their sectarian priorities," "The problems of the federal constitution, the distribution of Iraq's resources and the role of the unofficial militias have to be resolved in the direction of preserving the unity of the nation," and the like -- all of which are included in the above article. I will now light myself on fire.

Any time you read something that talks about what Iraqis "must" do, without following it up with, "here's how," you're getting one of the Sensible Centrist Arguments, which are, of course, part of the Magical Plans Never To Be Implemented genre. Experts in this genre are often "liberals" who advocated the war and cannot quite bring themselves to admit that it's a crippling strategic blunder, therefore feeling obligated to propose solutions that have no chance of being tried, much less actually working.


If people want to spend their time writing wankery think pieces about fantasy pony plans for Iraq they're free to do so, but they should understand that such things have one very real impact on the Iraq debate. Their implicit (and often explicit) criticism is that people who want to get out of Iraq are unserious, because if they were serious they'd sign on to the fantasy pony plan. But the choice will never be between fantasy pony plan and getting out, the choice is between starting to get out or letting George W. Bush continue to fuck things up with HIS fantasy pony plan for Iraq. You know, the current mess. Every person who writes an op-ed with yet another fantasy pony plan for Iraq, no matter how wonderful a pony plan it is, helps to ensure that George W. Bush gets to continue fucking things up for just a little bit longer.

Unless you think that's a tremendously lovely idea, please STFU.

heh-indeedy

Josh Marshall:

And yet here we have President Bush, stepping on to Vietnamese soil to further our rapprochement with Vietnam, and arguing, in so many words, that the lesson of Vietnam is that we should still be there blowing the place up thirty years later.

We're really deep into the primitive brainstem phase of our long national nightmare of presidential denial and mendacity on Iraq. Poetically, politically and intellectually it's appropriate that Henry Kissinger is now along for the ride.

Fresh Thread

If you're thinking about heading over to the Reading Terminal Market for some Thanksgiving related shopping, don't.

Noted

What's with St. John McCain, The Really Serious Foreign Policy Guy who has fringe views about Iraq, having to consult his notes ever time Stephy asks him a question?

It's weird.

Hellbound

I, for one, have long been rather annoyed at the incomprehensible alliance of "people of faith" versus the rest of us. "People of faith" believe in very different things, and this includes rather vast differences within the major faiths as well as between them.

So, yes, lots of religious people believe that they've found the one true path to eternal salvation and everyone who doesn't share that view is going to hell forever. This might seem like a rather abhorrent and morally vacuous view of the universe, but it isn't a fringe view. Lots of people believe it. According to this poll, 24% of Americans who believe in the existence of Heaven think that only Christians can get to Heaven.

Feel the Joementum!

Yes, ignore all presidential polls.

IIRC, John Kerry was in single digits in December of '03.

Going Long

Well, of course we are. Bush equates leaving with losing. We're staying. Everyone who reads this blog knows this.

Many more dead people so George Bush, St. McCain, The Last Honest Man, and the Quiet Americans can feel good about the fact that they aren't dirty fucking hippies.


...atta j. turk provides the graphic to accompany this post.

Not So Simple Answers to Not So Simple Questions

To answer Tom's question, I think there are various reasons which apply to different actors. One is a high degree of regional tribalism - there are of course many progressive Southerners and they are wedded to the idea of turning their own tribe Blue. One is the influence of BoboBrooksian thinking on many people - the South is real America. One is an understandable unwillingness to abandon a region to the forces of darkness. And, of course, one is the need to both brand and shift the Democratic party to a mythical center which is whatever those arguing for that center claim it is - it's easier to cherry pick that if you have more ideological and regional variety in the caucus.

Meanwhile

Over there:

BAGHDAD - The body of an Iraqi actor was found with three bullet wounds in the head in al-Yarmouk district in western Baghdad, police and al-Sharkiya channel said. Waleed Hassan was known for his popular sketch show "Charicature".

...

FALLUJA - A U.S. Marine died on Sunday from wounds suffered in combat in the western province of Anbar, the U.S. military said.

...
NEAR BAGHDAD - The bodies of 14 people, with gunshot wounds and bearing signs of torture, were found dumped south of Baghdad, an Interior Ministry source said.


Still, all was not well in the City of Brotherly Love either, so I guess it's a wash.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Paranoid Ideas

Heh-indeed.

I wonder if it occurs to any of these people that maybe, just maybe, the repeated calls for regime change and bombing campaigns by prominent pundits and senior administration officials might you know, be perceived as a genuine threat by people in and around the Middle East.

Meanwhile

At least 112 people killed across Iraq.


Still not quite as bad as Philadelphia.

One Last Shot

Yglesias wonders just what the One Last Push crowd actually wants. More importantly, what happens after this Yet Another One More Try fails?

I'm looking forward to December 18th, when I'm hoping (though not optimistic) that we might get an answer. Joe Klein was in the "one last shot" camp before it was the cool position. He wrote:

What can the Democrats do? They can play politics or be responsible. The political option is to embrace "cut and run"; call for an immediate withdrawal, as Kerry did; and hope the public is so sick of Bush and sick of the war that it will punish the g.o.p. in the fall. But embracing defeat is a risky political strategy, especially for a party not known for its warrior ethic. In fact, the responsible path is the Democrats' only politically plausible choice: they will have to give yet another new Iraqi government one last shot to succeed. This time, U.S. military sources say, the measure of success is simple: Operation Forward Together, the massive joint military effort launched last week to finally try to secure Baghdad, has to work. If Baghdad isn't stabilized, the war is lost. "I know it's the cliche of the war," an Army counterinsurgency specialist told me last week. "But we'll know in the next six months—and this time, it'll be the last next six months we get."


Well, our last six months has just one month left. Then, maybe, we'll find out what the new "responsible path" is. Approx. 350 American troops died since Joe Klein told us what the responsible path was. What will his next responsible path lead to?

The People We Listened To

Kevin Drum pulls up a Ken Pollack flashback:

Just to be clear about this: in 1990, Iraq built a workable nuclear weapon. All it lacked was the fissile material.


Anyone with a wee bit of sense reading those two sentences would know that the person who wrote them is either a shameless propagandist or quite possibly the stupidest fucking person on the face of the planet.

In the early 1990s I built a workable time machine. All it lacked was the flux capacitor and 1.21 gigawatts of electricity.

Two F.U.s From Now

Two F.U.s from now we'll still be in Iraq. The Last Honest Man and Saint John McCain will continue to say we just need to send a few more troops in to find the ponies. The Quiet Americans at TNR will still be seeing the Iraq conflict as little more than their own personal intellectual struggle, instead of as a genuine conflict with lots of dead people.

It's all very depressing. Will any reporter ask the Last Honest Man about this statement?

So I am confident that the situation is improving enough on the ground that by the end of this year, we will begin to draw down significant numbers of American troops, and by the end of the next year more than half of the troops who are there now will be home.

"Willing More American Deaths"

I'll just outsource all my blogging to Think Progress today.

Saint McCain and the Last Honest Man and the Quiet Americans at TNR want this to continue so they can feel better about themselves. I don't know what's wrong with these people.

Sunday Bobbleheads

Document the atrocities.

Meet the Press" Guests: Sens.-elect Jim Webb, D-Va., and Jon Tester, D-Mont.

• "This Week" Guests: Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.; House Majority Leader-elect Steny Hoyer, D-Md.; NASCAR driver Jimmie Johnson.

• "Face the Nation" Guests: Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y.; Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.

• "CNN Late Edition" Guests: Iraqi Ambassador to the U.S. Samir Sumaidaie; Sens. Carl Levin, D-Mich., and Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas; House Majority Whip-elect James Clyburn, D-S.C.; House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, R-Mo.

• "Fox News Sunday" . Guests: Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass.; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

Late Night

Pretty Girls Make Graves - Speakers Push the Air

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Saturday Night

White Whale - What's an Ocean For

Mayor

Well, here in Philly things are starting to heat up. Congressman Fattah has entered the mayor's race. I don't think anyone is making many predictions on this race, but he's probably the early, if slight, favorite to win.

The Big Money

Consider helping out your favorite bloggers. Not me, advertising money has been good lately (thanks Chevron! thanks Glenn Beck!) but some of the rest of bloggers out there. The largely unsung heroes are the "local bloggers" who focus mostly on local issues and candidates and while they can never hope to have a consistent large national audience can have a disproportionate impact on such things, both by bringing national attention to things and by being able to influence local media coverage. Odds are the traffic will never exist for those sites such that they can be advertiser supported, but they're really where a lot of the important stuff is happening.

I know people think this blogging thing is easy. Aspects of it are. But it takes a long time to not just build up traffic, but reputation. To not just have a readership, but hope to have a wider influence, you have to demonstrate that you're not nuts, that your judgment about what is and isn't important is pretty consistent, that your bullshit detector is pretty good. At least if you're a left wing blogger. If you're a right winger your bullshit fantasies can jump from your page to Drudge to Noron's mouth at light speed.

Most bloggers have to work for a living, their blogs are just a side thing. Few are hoping to have blogging be a full time thing. But every second spent blogging is time away from spouse, away from kids, away from advancing career, etc. Sure, it's "just a hobby," but it's shame if people who have spent time building their sites and reputations, building their networks, eventually recognize that it's something they have to step away from.

Campaigns and candidates and politicians are often still hostile to bloggers. Some of that's understandable as we can be a pain in the ass and they don't know how to deal with us. But lacking the equivalent of He Who Rules Their World and Limbaugh, we're still the best way to try to get around the media gatekeepers to get important stuff out there. Often it's the local bloggers who have the best shot of doing that, but they're mostly toiling away in obscurity.

So give some love to Blue Jersey, or your favorite local/smaller blogger.

God Bless America

I'm so glad racism is behind us:

For years, it was an open secret at North Dallas' Preston Hollow Elementary School: Even though the school was overwhelmingly Hispanic and black, white parents could get their children into all-white classes. And once placed, the students would have little interaction with the rest of the students.

The result, a federal judge has ruled, was that principal Teresa Parker "was, in effect, operating, at taxpayer's expense, a private school for Anglo children within a public school that was predominantly minority."

...

The judge also had sharp words for the district's attorneys, who argued that segregation would cause no harm to the minority students because their teachers used the same curriculum as those teaching white students.

"The court is baffled that in this day and age, that [DISD relied] on what is, essentially, a 'separate but equal' argument," the judge wrote.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Poor Thomas Edsall

He just wrote a book called "Building Red America." Then America turned Blue.

Still he clings to his script, as they always do.

Speaker

Pelosi:

This morning, I visited our brave men and women at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center. It is a place of prayers, of honor, of respect, and reflection. And I left there more committed than ever to bringing the war to an end.

I told my colleagues yesterday that the biggest ethical issue facing our country for the past three and a half years is the war in Iraq.


Indeed it is. The Quiet Americans over at The New Republic have helped destroy the soul of this country, as they continue to pat themselves on the back for their moral virtue. Sick people, really.

Rigged

Jumping into the "why so many Senators" conversation, an additional reason is that the system is rigged in their favor.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. - Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on Friday said potential 2008 presidential rival John McCain's campaign finance reforms gives the Republican senator an advantage over other candidates by allowing him to transfer money easily.


"If you're a senator, you can take the money you raise in a Senate campaign and transfer it to a presidential, but you can't take money you raise in a state campaign and transfer that to a federal campaign," Huckabee, a Republican, told The Associated Press in an interview Friday.

"McCain was very smart in creating a system where he could take all of this Senate money that he had and turn it over to his presidential campaign to give him a distinct advantage over anyone else who ran," he said.


Senators can raise a pile of money before they ever decide to run for president. Governors can't.

YEEAARGH

Ho Ho:


TETON VILLAGE, Wyo. -- Democratic chairman Howard Dean on Friday took a swipe at Washington critics who questioned his strategy of spending money in all 50 states, dismissing them as the "old Democratic Party."

Basking in the afterglow of last week's election victories, Dean told the state party chairmen who were among the biggest beneficiaries of his strategy that it was an approach marked by Democratic wins at all levels of government.

"It was a great win for what I call the new Democratic Party," Dean said in a speech to the Association of State Democratic Chairs. "This is the new Democratic Party. The old Democratic Party is back there in Washington, sometimes they still complain a little bit."

...


"The people who complain always get the headlines," Dean said, adding there are other high-profile Democrats who support his initiative. "But the fact is that this strategy not only works, it works in states Democrats have given up on for 30 years.

"We cannot give up on anybody."

Better Late Than Never

Or, not really. 12 years later when they're out of power, CBSNews.com's editorial director decides it's time to tell people the truth about the Republican freaks who have been ruling us.

Speaking of Silly People No One Should Listen To

David Ignatius:

The new House speaker, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, had a disastrous post-election week in which her first priority seemed to be settling scores rather than solving these big problems. Shame on her!


I know I'm just an idiot with a cable modem and David Ignatius gets to write for the Washington Post, but for the record the Speaker of the House is currently Dennis Hastert. He's running the show. The Democrats don't take control for another couple of months. If big problems aren't being solved, it's because Dennis Hastert isn't trying to solve them. The Democrats had leadership elections, as did the Republicans. People took sides in those elections. That's pretty normal stuff. Some people won, and some people did not. The Republicans had an incredibly divisive election in the Senate in which John McCain's favorite segregation-loving candidate won by one vote. It's a real shame that McCain, who is currently in the majority in the Senate, apparently spent time on this stuff instead of solving the Big Problems, but hey that's how things apparently work. There's an election which is immediately followed by leadership elections. Then the new leadership takes control in January. This stuff happens every two years. It's not that complicated.