Monday, January 08, 2007

So Many Chances

Yitzhak Nakash 9 months ago:

A unity government may stop Iraq's slide into an all-out civil war and give Iraqis one last chance to reach a political compromise. Some of the most contentious issues that Iraqis would need to address revolve around the meaning of just governance, the nature of federalism and the creation of an Iraqi national identity.


today:

There is no guarantee that any course of action adopted by the Bush administration at this point could stop Iraq's slide into full-scale civil war and save the country from partition. But the U.S. must try: Iraq holds enormous strategic importance for the United States, and its fragmentation would further erode American global stature. What's more, Turkey, Iran and Syria will not tolerate a partition plan that would lead to a Kurdish state for fear of the repercussions among their own restive Kurdish minorities. Indeed, they are likely to interfere militarily in Iraq to abort such a development.

Because of that, and because of the heavy human and material cost that would be exacted in the event of a war that leads to partition, the U.S. ought to make a last-ditch effort to bring Iraqis to the table to hold their country together.

To preserve Iraq's unity, the U.S. military needs to secure Baghdad — a precondition for any attempt to revive the political process. The administration also needs to engage Iraq's neighbors in an effort to quell the fighting in Iraq and reintegrate the country into the Arab world.

...

The Bush administration has reached a critical juncture in its mission in Iraq. Whether it begins withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq or opts for a temporary troop surge, the administration owes Iraqis a final chance to work things out. The stakes in Iraq are too high for the U.S. to simply cut and run.



...and then what?