As far as I can tell, this is the conventional wisdom of the Iraq debate right now (leaving aside what is true):
1) The surge is "working," and by that we mean that increased military presence has reduced the level of violence in the areas where there is an increased military presence.
2) The surge did not succeed in achieving its actual stated goal of any sort of political success.
3) The surge will start to wind down soon no matter what because the army is incapable of sustaining it.
...
4) Profit!
