Tomorrow's Friday! Fridays are exciting!!
Rock on.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
That Awesome Bankruptcy Bill
While I do think no-or-little-money-down combined with the general corrupt carnival atmosphere of the whole lending/housing markets in recent years are the major explanations, one certainly can't dismiss the likely role of the Bankruptcy Bill in all of this.
All of this cultural "shame" stuff is nonsense. But bankruptcy laws exist largely for the benefit of creditors, not debtors, and if you don't make it a reasonable path for people who are underwater to take then they'll choose another course. And so they send in the keys and walk away from the house.
The issue at stake revolves around so-called delinquency rates, the proportion of people who fall behind on their debt repayments. When American households have faced hard times in previous decades, they tended to default on unsecured loans such as credit cards and car loans first – and stopped paying their mortgage only as a last resort. However, in the last couple of years households have become delinquent on their mortgages much faster than trends in the wider economy might suggest. That is particularly true of the less creditworthy subprime borrowers. Moreover, consumers have stopped paying mortgages before they halt payments on their credit cards or automotive loans – turning the traditional delinquency pattern on its head. As a result, mortgage lenders have started to face losses at a much earlier stage than in the past.
“In the past, if a household in America experienced financial problems it tended to go delinquent on its credit cards, but kept on paying its mortgage,” says Malcolm Knight, head of the Bank for International Settlements, the central banks’ bank. “Now what seems to be happening is that people who have outstanding mortgages that are greater than the value of their home, or have negative amortisation mortgages, keep paying off their credit card balances but hand in the keys to their house . . . these reactions to financial stress are not taken into account in the credit scoring models that are used to value residential mortgage-backed securities.”
One possible explanation is that it has become culturally more acceptable this decade for people to abandon houses or stop paying in the hope of renegotiating their home loans. The shame that used to be associated with losing a house may, in other words, be ebbing away – particularly among homeowners who took out subprime loans in recent years, as underwriting standards were loosened. Consumers may also be rationally re-evaluating the costs that come with defaulting on different forms of debt, in the light of recent bankruptcy law reforms in America.
All of this cultural "shame" stuff is nonsense. But bankruptcy laws exist largely for the benefit of creditors, not debtors, and if you don't make it a reasonable path for people who are underwater to take then they'll choose another course. And so they send in the keys and walk away from the house.
Deep Thought
Only 38 US troops were killed in January. At that rate, only 456 US troops will be killed in 2008.
Only.
Only.
The Many Joys of Blogging
Include the fact that people are always telling you what you're supposed to be doing with your blog.
WHEEEEEEEEEEE
Make the shitpile higher!
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Credit rating company Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it raised its assumptions for losses on loans backing subprime mortgages as much as 85 percent in response to deteriorating performance.
...
The revised estimates will likely result in more negative ratings actions on 2006 subprime RMBS.
Ground and Early Voting
Jane makes some important points here. There's a weird lack of attention to non-teevee strategies by the candidates, and especially when lots of states have pretty widespread early voting those strategies are rather important to understand before presenting us with sage analysis.
Mitt Still In It
Yay Mittens!
LOS ANGELES — Competition between Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney for California’s vast array of Republican delegates was heating up on Thursday, with Mr. McCain poised to receive a major endorsement and Mr. Romney preparing to broadcast television advertisements in California and several other February 5 states.
Mr. Romney, who has done well with fundraising compared to his rivals, but who also has repeatedly dipped into his own deep pockets, will buy advertising time in California’s expensive media markets Thursday, as well as markets in several other states across the country that are still being chosen, Carl Forti, the Romney campaign’s political director, said on Thursday morning.
Spoils
One thing that's lost in much of the postpartisanbipartisancantweallgetalongisan rhetoric - and media portrayal of the Village generally - is that there are tremendous stakes in national elections. There are trillions of dollars in goodies to be handed out, and much power - economic and otherwise - involved. People do a lot for money and power, and while our national patronage machine isn't quite as easily understood as your typical city's is, it's still a giant patronage machine.
Big Money
The teevee just told me that Obama raised $32 million in January.
Don't think Clinton's numbers are out yet.
Don't think Clinton's numbers are out yet.
Gravelmania
Two left. I never thought any of the "others" - Kucinich, Biden, Richardson, Dodd - had any serious kind of chance, though I figured Edwards would stay in until the end. Not a crazy idea given that he said he was going to, but whatever.
A woman or an African-American man will be the Democratic nominee. As is the case with such firsts it's rather important that whoever it is succeeds or it'll be a hell of a long time before there's a second. It puts some additional pressure on the candidates to win this thing.
A woman or an African-American man will be the Democratic nominee. As is the case with such firsts it's rather important that whoever it is succeeds or it'll be a hell of a long time before there's a second. It puts some additional pressure on the candidates to win this thing.
Hang In There, Mittens!
Tagg can afford to lend you a few more million from his inheritance. You can place some ads!
The Beginning?
New jobless claims jump to 375K. That's a serious number. Shouldn't take too much from one week of data, but...
Billion Here, Billion There
MBIA:
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., the world's largest bond insurer, posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss and is considering new ways to raise capital after a slump in the value of subprime-mortgage securities.
The fourth-quarter net loss was $2.3 billion, or $18.61 a share, raising concern the Armonk, New York-based company will lose its top credit ratings. The loss came a day after FGIC Corp.'s insurance unit became the third company to be stripped of its AAA grade.
Why We Fight
In this difficult primary season, I think it is important that we remember the common values that have brought us together.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
WHEEEEEEEEEEE
Make the shitpile higher.
NEW YORK (AP) — Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is considering slashing its rating on more than $500 billion of investments tied to bad mortgage loans, the ratings agency said Wednesday.
The massive downgrade would threaten a broad swath of the world's finance industry, S&P said, ranging from Wall Street's trading desks to regional banks to local credit unions.
Downgrade
CNBC guy says he expects downgrade of MBIA and Ambac (bond insurers) today (informed opinion, not necessarily fact).
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
...and:
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
...and:
William Ackman, a hedge fund manager and short-seller of MBIA, is submitting data to the Securities and Exchange Commission and insurance regulators in New York State alleging that bond insurers MBIA and Ambac Financial Group are understating their losses.
In his report, Ackman, of Pershing Square Capital, will contend that both bond insurers have said their mark-to-market losses are less than $1.5 billion, but according to his analysis, the losses for each firm will be around $12 billion.
Ackman has come up with this number through an analysis of the vast majority of the CDOs that have been insured by the company. He will claim that his analysis is conservative, meaning that if there is a question about a particular CDO, he doesn’t assume a worst case scenario.
Deep Thought
Maybe if Edwards had announced his exit from the race every week he would have gotten more media coverage.
Cramerica
Since I occasionally knock Jim Cramer a bit, though it's really more just knocking him as a symbol of something larger than anything personal, it's appropriate to point out that he's out there speaking out against the deregulation trend.
Perhaps he should put some of those ideas out there a bit more prominently on his cable show.
(ht reader b)
Perhaps he should put some of those ideas out there a bit more prominently on his cable show.
(ht reader b)
When The Downgrades Come
For some time now the big question has been when will the ratings agencies pull out the jenga pieces marked "MBIA" and "ABK." Some noise now that it will happen soon, despite a request for a postponement from New York regulators.
What happens then?
What happens then?
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co., UBS AG and other banks may be forced to post up to $70 billion in writedowns should bond insurers lose their top credit ratings, according to Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney.
Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and UBS AG, which have already suffered the biggest losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, according to Bloomberg data, hold 45 percent of the ``entire market risk,'' Whitney wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday. MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the biggest so-called monoline insurers, are on review for possible downgrades by Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's.
``The fate of the monoline insurers is of paramount importance to financial stocks,'' said New York-based Whitney. ``When it becomes clear, as we expect it will, that more charges are on the horizon, we believe the market will take another turn for the worse.''
Feeling Their Pain
The inability of the Republican lizard brains to even fake the slightest bit of empathy or sympathy for those experience economic troubles, or in fact to even restrain from outright hostility, is rather fascinating.
That isn't to say all of those in foreclosures are victims. But there were a lot of people ripped off by mortgage brokers they thought were acting in their interests who instead were pushing them into crappier loans for bigger commissions. When you hire someone whose job you think it is to get you the best loan possible, and their incentives are actually to get you the shittiest loan possible and you are unaware of that fact, there's a wee bit of a problem in the system.
That isn't to say all of those in foreclosures are victims. But there were a lot of people ripped off by mortgage brokers they thought were acting in their interests who instead were pushing them into crappier loans for bigger commissions. When you hire someone whose job you think it is to get you the best loan possible, and their incentives are actually to get you the shittiest loan possible and you are unaware of that fact, there's a wee bit of a problem in the system.
A Phrase Which Inspires Me To Hit The Mute Button
"Joe Klein of Time Magazine is on the phone with us..."
America's Mayor
The "serious" point of the Fox News "America's Mayor" video is that Murdoch and crew bet hard on Rudy... and lost.
Billion Here, Billion There
More Big Shitpile.
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Europe's largest bank by assets, had a record loss after raising fourth-quarter writedowns on assets infected by U.S. subprime mortgages to $14 billion.
The fourth-quarter net loss of 12.5 billion Swiss francs ($11.4 billion) was almost double what analysts surveyed by Bloomberg were estimating, and brings the total decline for the year to about 4.4 billion francs, the Zurich-based bank said today in a statement. UBS publishes detailed results on Feb. 14.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Ballot Fun
I realize he's out so it doesn't much matter, but was Bill Richardson really on the ballot as "William Richardson III"?
Still In
I've been pretty skeptical about the whole "Bank of America to buy Countrywide" thing. I still am. They say they're still in...
The $422 million loss Countrywide Financial Corp. reported Tuesday didn't appear to scare off Bank of America.
"At this point, everything is a go to complete this transaction," Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Ken Lewis said at an investor conference in New York.
FISA
House passes 15 day extension of the PAA Act. It sounds like Senate will do same and Bush will sign. We'll see.
Oh My
WSJ:
CNBC sez they're "looking at accounting fraud, securitization of loans, and insider trading..."
One day they'll stop calling it the "subprime mortgage crisis."
...bit more:
Federal investigators have opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the subprime mortgage crisis.
CNBC sez they're "looking at accounting fraud, securitization of loans, and insider trading..."
One day they'll stop calling it the "subprime mortgage crisis."
...bit more:
The FBI wouldn't identify the companies under investigation but said that generally the bureau is looking into allegations of fraud in various stages of mortgage securitization, from those who bundled the loans, to the banks that ended up holding them.
Delinquent
It's important to remember that the subprime loans were just the first phase.
I don't know what overlap there is between subprime and option ARMs - the former is a characteristic of the borrower and the latter is a type of loan - but Mozilo has lots of those.
That was in 2006.
Countrywide Financial, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, Tuesday said more than one in three subprime mortgages were delinquent at year-end in the $1.48 billion portfolio of home loans it services.
The comments on loan delinqencies comes as the troubled mortgage lender reported a loss of $422 million, or 79 cents a share, for the fourth quarter, compared with a year-earlier profit of $622 million, or $1.01 per share.
Countrywidesaid borrowers were delinquent on 33.64 percent of subprime loans it serviced as of Dec. 31, up from 29.08 percent in September. It also said borrowers were at least 90 days late on payments on 17.25 percent of subprime mortgages.
The rate of late payments rose to 7.32 percent at year end from 5.76 percent on prime home equity loans, and to 5.76 percent from 4.41 percent on conventional first mortgages, Countrywide said. For all loans, the delinquency rate rose to 8.64 percent from 7.12 percent, it said.
I don't know what overlap there is between subprime and option ARMs - the former is a characteristic of the borrower and the latter is a type of loan - but Mozilo has lots of those.
It seems the CEO of America's No. 1 mortgage lender would have you believe the company is above reproach. But Calabasas (Calif.)-based Countrywide has been among the most aggressive underwriters of option ARMs. As of the end of last year, the dollar amount of option ARMs on its books leaped more than fivefold, to $26.1 billion, or 38% of its total mortgages held, vs. 11% in 2004. Three-quarters of the company's option ARM borrowers chose the cheapest mortgage payment, according to its latest earnings release -- meaning these loans could reset at much higher rates. Yet accounting rules let Countrywide book the full payment as revenue on its books right now.
That was in 2006.
Threadbot says...
My cellular phone's got it goin' on.
(Hey, Threadbot is alive if you are willing to believe you heathen bastards!)
(Hey, Threadbot is alive if you are willing to believe you heathen bastards!)
And The Good Economic News
Durable goods orders up.
New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods rose by a much bigger-than-expected 5.2 percent in December and a key gauge of business spending also surged, a Commerce Department report showed on Tuesday.
Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, rose a much greater-than-expected 4.4 percent. It was the first rise in that category since September, a Commerce Department official said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected orders for durables to rise 1.5 percent and for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft to rise 0.1 percent.
Shitty Shitpile
Then:
Yesterday:
And reality.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Countrywide Financial, the nation's leading mortgage lender, reported a staggering $1.2 billion third-quarter loss Friday that was much larger than Wall Street expected, but predicted it would quickly return to profitability.
...
Countrywide Chairman and CEO Angelo Molizo said the lender has weathered the worst of its problems and is in a good position to post a profit in the fourth quarter, as well as in 2008. He pointed out out that many lenders have pulled out of the residential mortgage business in recent months due to the upheaval, or have gone out of business entirely.
Yesterday:
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the company to report a fourth-quarter loss of 30 cents per share on revenue of $1.71 billion.
And reality.
CALABASAS, Calif., Jan. 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Countrywide Financial Corporation today reported a net loss of $422 million, or $0.79 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2007, which compares to net income of $622 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2006.
Doesn't Anyone Remember Anthrax?
Yglesias:
Indeed. And anthrax was what made things like "mobile chemical weapons labs" sound so scary. Not everyone agrees, but I think more than 9/11 the anthrax freaked the country out. 9/11 was horrible, but the anthrax made it seem like we'd reached a new era where some horrible creepy shit was going to happen every day.
And then it was all forgotten.
"There has not been another attack on our soil since 9/11" -- anthrax! Anthrax! Oh well. For some reason that whole episode has been officially erased from the historical record or something.
Indeed. And anthrax was what made things like "mobile chemical weapons labs" sound so scary. Not everyone agrees, but I think more than 9/11 the anthrax freaked the country out. 9/11 was horrible, but the anthrax made it seem like we'd reached a new era where some horrible creepy shit was going to happen every day.
And then it was all forgotten.
FISA!
I feel nearly optimistic after the Dems actually did something right. If they have any brains, they will just let the "Protect America" Act expire, since we don't actually need it.
Don't forget to check how your reps voted and let them know what you think.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Don't forget to check how your reps voted and let them know what you think.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Monday, January 28, 2008
The food's good and people pretend they like me
Bush is Mr. Empathy, he's a guy you'd like to pour a beer on:
“yeah, there’s a bubble but life’s pretty comfortable inside the bubble.”
He Did It His Way
Are we nearing the end of the Giuliani era?
Could God be so cruel to His angel?
Could God be so cruel to His angel?
"God sent an angel, his name was Rudy Giuliani," said Voight, adding: "He's kind of a genius."
Better
Extending umemployment benefits is key.
Though I'm a bit confused about why the House ran to cut a deal with the preznit before the Senate got involved.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Democrats will move to add to a $150 billion economic stimulus package rebates for senior citizens living off Social Security and an extension of unemployment benefits, setting up a clash with the White House and House leaders who are pushing a narrower package.
As the House planned a vote Tuesday on a plan that would speed rebates of up to $600 to most income earners -- more for couples and families with children -- the Senate was planning to draft its own measure with the add-ons, said senior Senate aides in both parties, speaking on condition of anonymity because the package is not yet final.
Though I'm a bit confused about why the House ran to cut a deal with the preznit before the Senate got involved.
(Some) Credit Where Credit is Due File
Countrywide:
SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones) -- Countrywide Financial said on Monday that Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo, a lightening rod for criticism over the subprime- lending meltdown, is giving up a $37.5 million severance package.
The package is less than a quarter of the money Mozilo collected selling Countrywide stock in 2007 as the company's shares slumped almost 80%.
The Calabasas, Calif., lender said Mozilo is giving up cash severance payments, post-closing consulting fees and continued perquisites that he was owed in connection with the mortgage lender's takeover by Bank of America (BAC).
Our Stupid Discourse
Maybe if Romney would wrestle a pig or something he could prove his Regular Guyness to the world.
Some Earmarks ARE Ok
I do worry that that the war on Congressional earmarks has got a bit out of hand. They seem to have become shorthand for "pointless and irresponsible spending," but there's not necessarily anything wrong with Congress telling, say, the Department of Transportation how they should spend some of the money they give them. The earmark process is an issue, but not earmarks themselves.
I Am Brilliant And Gorgeous
Regarding this:
But the reason people never gave Bush much credit for the economy was that for most people the economy was never that awesome. While Iraq is something that most people don't experience directly, the economy is. And if they aren't completely thrilled about it, there's probably a reason.
For years, President Bush and his advisers expressed frustration that the White House received little credit for the nation's strong economic performance because of public discontent about the Iraq war. Today, the president is getting little credit for improved security in Iraq, as the public increasingly focuses on a struggling U.S. economy.
But the reason people never gave Bush much credit for the economy was that for most people the economy was never that awesome. While Iraq is something that most people don't experience directly, the economy is. And if they aren't completely thrilled about it, there's probably a reason.
Meanwhile...
in one of John McCain's many wars...
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Five U.S. soldiers were killed when their patrol was hit by a roadside bomb and then came under small arms fire in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul on Monday, the U.S. military said.
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Wired
Spent the evening at a friend's place getting caught up on The Wire as I lack HBO. I haven't really been reading reviews but from glancing at them I've sensed that there has been disapproval of this season. Or maybe it's just that journalists have disapproved of this season. In any case I think it's pretty good so far.
Try to avoid temptation to put spoilers in comments, aside from the fact that Darth Vader is McNulty's father.
Try to avoid temptation to put spoilers in comments, aside from the fact that Darth Vader is McNulty's father.
Deep Thought
The existence of multiple candidates in the Democratic primary race means that the party is hopelessly splintered.
Brokered
Yes all political junkies dream of the brokered convention. It would be exciting!! But I started to think about how the news media would deal with such a thing if it were necessary. The primaries are early. The convention is in August. Between the primaries and the convention the bobblehead discussion would be unbearable. I don't know how the campaigns themselves would deal with it. They couldn't go dark, but they couldn't campaign as the presumptive nominee either. There'd be calls and pressures from various quarters for one of the candidates to "do the honorable thing" and bow out for the sake of the party, or Tim Russert's Nantucket vacation, or whatever.
The horror.
The horror.
Mac and Mittens
Rasmussen has McCain and Romney basically tied nationally, with Rudy and Huck floundering. Hang in there, Mitt!
Except For All That Stuff About His Penis
Silly person Mary Katherine Ham on Howie Kurtz's show, regarding Bill Clinton:
When he was president, he was not subjected to quite as much scrutiny, and I think he got a lot of passes, and now he's mad he's not getting them anymore.
On Trolls
Tanta:
I cannot make anyone stop responding to pointless or nuisance comments. You have to want to restrain yourself, because you understand that the only way to get rid of them is to fail to give them the attention they want. A "troll" is not just someone whose comments you disagree with, or even just a nasty or badly-worded comment. A troll is someone who does not, under any possible set of circumstances, care what you think about him or his comments. He merely wants attention. Negative attention will do. The more you disagree with him, the more he is able to tell himself that he is persecuted and victimized or the only voice of reason or one of the elite few who has the God's-eye view of the world or whatever his current delusion is. If he isn't merely a narcissist who thrives on feeling attacked, he's just some putz who enjoys irritating other people. Therefore, you "feed" the troll by paying any attention to him at all. It does not matter what you say in response. Any response to a troll just encourages the troll.
Besides classic trolls, we have a few resident long-winded bores who believe that the rest of us have never been exposed to some trite, shallow, bombastic rant they just heard on the radio or read in Reader's Digest or saw in a vision, and feel compelled to share with the rest of us. These people lack any possible sense of context or audience; they are incapable of noticing that the bulk of our commenting community has been exposed to the world for a while now and is not interested in any comment that starts "there is one simple answer to this the rest of you aren't getting." It does you no good to respond to this type either; they'll just re-write the same comment again, at the same length, saying the same thing, until you "get it." They are bores with no self-awareness. The cool thing about the internet is that you can just scroll down to the next comment without being "rude." So take advantage of the medium.
What's Mittens Thinking?
After her stellar work on the Fred Thompson campaign, Liz Cheney joins team Romney.
PNAC
I've just started reading this article on the decline of the American empire, so I don't have anything to comment on it specifically, but I do think it's been quite obvious for some time that the neocons who dreamt of American hegemony have basically destroyed it.
Making It Happen
I'll wade briefly into primary-related commentary to say that as in Iowa, Obama pulled off the feat of actually getting a lot of people to the polls. It's a bit weird to judge a candidate by the success of his campaign. I mean, obviously, in some sense that's how all candidates are judged, but part of Obama's spiel is that he's so awesome that he'll get lots and lots of people to come out to vote for him.
The press is overplaying the race and gender stuff, with a little help from the campaigns themselves of course, though that isn't to say there's nothing there. But I agree with Digby that it's the younger people that provide the more interesting story.
The press is overplaying the race and gender stuff, with a little help from the campaigns themselves of course, though that isn't to say there's nothing there. But I agree with Digby that it's the younger people that provide the more interesting story.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
2 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 1 Jesus Petraeus.
ABC's "This Week" — Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
___
CNN's "Late Edition" — Gen. David Petraeus; Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson; former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.; former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Paulson and Huckabee.
2 Democrats, 7 Republicans, 1 Jesus Petraeus.
Threadlet
It's as plain as the nose on my face that Ronald Reagan hasn't been "the party of ideas" for "the last 10 to 15 years" - and while I don't expect Chris Matthews to have noticed this, I do expect Hillary Clinton's defenders to know it. How do these people get hired?
Signed,
Not Atrios
Update: To be clear, the point is that "Reagan" and "the Republican Party" are actually two different things, and referring to the last 10-15 years is not the same thing as saying "Ronald Reagan", especially given that Reagan left office in 1989 already suffering from Alzheimer's and didn't actually express a lot of ideas after that, especially once he died.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Update: To be clear, the point is that "Reagan" and "the Republican Party" are actually two different things, and referring to the last 10-15 years is not the same thing as saying "Ronald Reagan", especially given that Reagan left office in 1989 already suffering from Alzheimer's and didn't actually express a lot of ideas after that, especially once he died.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Thred
I know I'm repeating myself, but have you all seen my favorite instruction video of Republican-style bipartisan negotiation and compromise?
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Results
I hear there's a primary today. I'll be out eating and drinking with my decadent coastal enclave elite friends, so you can look elsewhere for coverage.
Still I think we can all agree that whatever the results, they'll be excellent news for Rudy Giuliani and/or John McCain.
...MSNBC says Obama won.
Still I think we can all agree that whatever the results, they'll be excellent news for Rudy Giuliani and/or John McCain.
...MSNBC says Obama won.
Speaking of Teen Sex
And on and on...
(CBS) A Utah retailer of family-friendly tapes and DVDs - Hollywood films with the "dirty parts" cut out of them - has been arrested for trading sex with two 14-year-old girls.
Orem police say Flix Club owner Daniel Dean Thompson, 31, and Issac Lifferth, 24, were booked into the Utah County jail on charges of sexual abuse and unlawful sexual activity with a 14-year-old.
Groundhog Day
May 2006.
Now.
The reality is that more Marines probably will die here. Half of all U.S. servicemen killed in Iraq during March gave their lives in Ramadi, now the last major stronghold of the Iraqi insurgency.
Now.
The massive explosion in Mosul on Wednesday and the suicide attack assassination of a top police official the next day have prompted obvious concern among Iraq's leaders.
On Friday, the government said it would dispatch several thousand more security forces to Mosul in a "decisive" bid to drive al-Qaida in Iraq from its last major stronghold.
Naked Butts and Naked Teens
We're really going to have to rethink our understanding of things like "photograph," "publication," "distribution," "commercial use," etc. Teens have cameras in every device they own. Teens get naked and have sex with each other. Teens will, stupidly, take pictures and videos of each other and, even more stupidly, send them around the world. Whatever laws we have should have related to this stuff it isn't "child pornography" and in the case of a photo of a "bare breast" it isn't even pornography, just nudity. I'm not saying there aren't genuine issues here, but they're more in the "behavior problem" category than in the "ZOMG EVERYONE WHO SAW THE BOOBY MIGHT GO TO JAIL FOR 30 YEARS CATEGORY," or at least they should be.
And this is even stupider.
And this is even stupider.
Friday, January 25, 2008
High Stakes Slots
Bill Bennett is probably jealous.
Seeking to reassure investors and the public, Bank of France governor Christian Noyer insisted that Societe Generale "is stronger today" after it had "cleaned" up its accounts.
But a top French presidential advisor revealed that Kerviel had positions of more than 50 billion euros (73 billion dollars) -- more than the bank's current market capitalisation of 35.9 billion euros.
Simple Answers to Simple Questions
Can this possibly make sense?
No.
This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.
No.
This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.
The Dream Is Over
I imagine that not all of the pressure to keep prices high comes from clients. Real estate agents have an incentive to keep sale prices high as low sales prices of comparable homes will drive down their commission. Still I suppose they have to give up the dream at some point, too.
That's a lot of listings.
TAMPA - Real estate agent Tony Rojas loves his job. But there's one thing that drives him crazy: unrealistic sellers who insist on asking buyers to pay boom-year sales prices despite profound drops in area home values.
So he has decided to walk away. In essence, he's firing them.
"We as Realtors have two choices," said Rojas, of ReMax Realty Associates in Tampa. "We can tell clients what they want to hear. Or we can tell them the truth: Values have dropped.
"Some clients get so mad when I tell them what their home is really worth that they won't even call me back. I have 40 to 50 listings. I have to get really serious about selling."
That's a lot of listings.
I'm Dreaming Of A Billionaire Dictatorship
Oddly that isn't what the country wants.
With an immense amount of free press, Draft Bloomberg has gotten a whopping 3136 signatures.
I'm feeling the Mikementum!!
With an immense amount of free press, Draft Bloomberg has gotten a whopping 3136 signatures.
I'm feeling the Mikementum!!
Are There Any Republicans Left?
Dave "Not Curt" Weldon (R-FL) to retire.
Partisan gloating aside, while I'm no fan of term limits, an institution like Congress benefits from having a decent amount of churn.
Partisan gloating aside, while I'm no fan of term limits, an institution like Congress benefits from having a decent amount of churn.
Voters
There are certainly elements of our modern political system that we can all object to, but contempt for the wishes of voters by elites is something we should all shun. Voters may not always be as perfectly informed as we would like them to be, but this democracy thing is rather important as the alternative is probably, you know, a Bloomberg Plutocracy.
Punditry
If were not a little mad and generally silly
I should give you my advice upon the subject, willy-nilly;
I should show you in a moment how to grapple with the question,
And you'd really be astonished at the force of my suggestion.
On the subject I shall write you a most valuable letter,
Full of excellent suggestions when I feel a little better,
But at present I'm afraid I am as mad as any hatter,
So I'll keep 'em to myself, for my opinion doesn't matter!
Thursday, January 24, 2008
MITTENS
Okay, I flipped on the debate for a bit. Mitt's making the others seem crackpottish and weird.
...Giuliani looks forward to the Rise of the Machines: "We need to get us to the point where those technologies can take over."
...Andrea Mitchell: "I thought John McCain did really well... Reaganesque..."
...Chris Matthews grunts, slobbers, gropes for the Clenis...
...Giuliani looks forward to the Rise of the Machines: "We need to get us to the point where those technologies can take over."
...Andrea Mitchell: "I thought John McCain did really well... Reaganesque..."
...Chris Matthews grunts, slobbers, gropes for the Clenis...
Debate Thread
In case any of you enjoy watching Republicans.
I, for one, don't like to waste my beautiful mind with such things.
I, for one, don't like to waste my beautiful mind with such things.
That Sounds More Like It
While I have no special knowledge of the exact amount, the tiny numbers being thrown around as possible lifelines for the monolines were absurd. They're currently the ones holding the bag.
Question
I recognize that Craigslist is taking over the world of classified advertising, but is it really the right place to advertise $3+ million homes?
Freedom
Bush America.
FLORENCE, Ariz. — Thomas Warziniack was born in Minnesota and grew up in Georgia, but immigration authorities pronounced him an illegal immigrant from Russia.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement has held Warziniack for weeks in an Arizona detention facility with the aim of deporting him to a country he's never seen. His jailers shrugged off Warziniack's claims that he was an American citizen, even though they could have retrieved his Minnesota birth certificate in minutes and even though a Colorado court had concluded that he was a U.S. citizen a year before it shipped him to Arizona.
During a deportation hearing Thursday morning, pleas by Warziniack's family and lawyer to release him, as well as a copy of his birth certificate proving his citizenship, did little to deter the government.
Conforming Loan Limit
This has been announced in various ways today, but the latest from CNBC is that the conforming loan limit would be raised to 125% of median home prices in local markets in the version being drafted by Barney Frank.
Compromise
Nancy and Boehner are on my teevee patting each other on the back for their bipartisan awesomeness. It's sort of mysterious why there needs to be bipartisan awesomeness in the House. I recognize that for such a thing they need to make nice with the president, because of his veto power, and with the Senate, because of ability of the minority to block things. What should happen is that the House comes up with some Democratic dream legislation, the Senate passes something a bit worse, and then the compromise in conference is something in between. Instead what happens is that the House compromises when they don't have to, the Senate compromises further, Bush stamps his feet about something, then the further compromise is even worse.
...adding, I actually know the answer to this. The governing coalition in the House is the Republicans+Bush Dogs, despite the nominal majority of the Dems.
...adding, I actually know the answer to this. The governing coalition in the House is the Republicans+Bush Dogs, despite the nominal majority of the Dems.
Conforming Loan Limit
This is, I think, a very bad idea. While it's true that entry-level property prices are much higher in certain parts of the country, that's largely due to the fact that the housing bubble was much bigger than in the rest of the country. Prices need to come down, and this will prop them up.
I'd be okay with it if lending standards were raised substantially - such as 20% down - for people to qualify. otherwise....
...adding, the issue is how big of a loan Fannie and Freddie are allowed to take off the hands of lenders. Right now the limit is at $417K, which isn't a lot in high cost areas. The practical effect is that loans above this limit, "jumbos," go for a point or point and a half higher than loans under this limit.
...supposedly "the deal" has this limit going up over $700K in high cost areas. Pumping some more helium into the bubble...
I'd be okay with it if lending standards were raised substantially - such as 20% down - for people to qualify. otherwise....
...adding, the issue is how big of a loan Fannie and Freddie are allowed to take off the hands of lenders. Right now the limit is at $417K, which isn't a lot in high cost areas. The practical effect is that loans above this limit, "jumbos," go for a point or point and a half higher than loans under this limit.
...supposedly "the deal" has this limit going up over $700K in high cost areas. Pumping some more helium into the bubble...
"Fraud"
There is fraud here, sort of, but only in the sense that the guy was hiding what he was doing to avoid detection. He wasn't stealing.
CNBC bobbleheads speculating that the big market crash on Monday was due to SG dumping all of their crap onto the market, which led to Ben firing up the helicopter...
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale SA said unauthorized bets on stock index futures by an unidentified employee caused a 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) trading loss, the largest in banking history.
France's second-largest bank by market value plans to raise 5.5 billion euros from investors after the trading loss and subprime-related writedowns depleted capital, the Paris-based company said today. The Bank of France, the country's banking regulator, said it's investigating the situation.
The trading shortfall exceeds the $6.6 billion Amaranth Advisors LLC lost in 2006, and is more than four times the $1.4 billion of losses by Nick Leeson that brought down Barings Plc in 1995. An offer by Chairman Daniel Bouton to resign after the trades were discovered this past weekend was refused by Societe Generale's board, the bank said.
CNBC bobbleheads speculating that the big market crash on Monday was due to SG dumping all of their crap onto the market, which led to Ben firing up the helicopter...
Crap
The stimulus bill will likely be bad, and likely be worse than whatever is negotiated in advance, as the Republicans will complain, the Blue Dogs will side with them, and Bush will accuse the Democrats of preventing people from getting their rebate check...
Meanwhile
Such a lovely little war.
(CBS/AP) A suicide bomber struck officials fleeing an ambush in Mosul, northern Iraq on Thursday, killing the provincial police chief and two other officers and wounding U.S. and one Iraqi soldier, the military said.
The attack occurred at the site of a blast that killed at least 34 people and wounded 224 the day before. The toll was raised Thursday from a previous total of 18 killed.
The Thursday attacker was wearing an explosives vest under an Iraqi police uniform when he struck, killing Brig. Gen. Saleh Mohammed Hassan, the director of police for Ninevah province, of which Mosul is the capital, according to the statement.
Super Shitpile Revisited
I doubt this will work, but whatever.
The whole system's been corrupt for a long time, courtesy of the ratings agencies and the Masters of the Universe in Wall Street.
an. 24 (Bloomberg) -- New York regulators are pushing the biggest U.S. financial institutions to rescue bond insurers, led by MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., and avert credit- rating downgrades that may further disrupt financial markets.
Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, who met with industry executives yesterday, is trying to bolster the bond insurers' ratings with help from banks and securities firms that posted $133 billion of writedowns and credit losses tied to mortgage securities. He's received encouragement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner, said a person with knowledge of the matter.
The insurers may get fresh capital of as much as $15 billion, the Financial Times said on its Web site yesterday. The figure may be smaller, said a person familiar with the talks. The infusion would help stave off credit rating downgrades of MBIA and Ambac, the industry's two largest companies, and the $2.4 trillion of debt they guarantee. Banks would avoid billions more in writedowns on the value of subprime securities they had insured.
The whole system's been corrupt for a long time, courtesy of the ratings agencies and the Masters of the Universe in Wall Street.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
If Copland Composed A Concerto For a Punk Bluegrass String Trio...
Jennifer Higdon's Concerto 4-3 was pretty awesome. Those local folk who are free for a Friday matinee should check it out.
Thread
In case Chris Dodd has to filibuster, he might need things to read. I thought this would be good.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
All That Money
It gets more expensive every year.
Good thing we have those fiscally responsible Blue Dogs to...oh wait, never mind.
War funding, which averaged about $93 billion a year from 2003 through 2005, rose to $120 billion in 2006 and $171 billion in 2007 and President George W. Bush has asked for $193 billion in 2008, the nonpartisan office wrote.
Good thing we have those fiscally responsible Blue Dogs to...oh wait, never mind.
Davos
Harry Reid whining that Chris Dodd might prevent them from jetting off to Davos is pretty disgusting.
Ranty
Bush just spoke briefly after meeting with various mayors. He really just sounds like the crazy uncle in the corner who keeps belting out nonsense.
Teen Sex
I guess I missed the memo where we all agreed that teens should abstain from sex to make William Saletan happy. Or something.
But, no, I don't think the ideal amount of teen sex is zero. I think the ideal amount of teen sex is whatever amount of safe and consensual sex between people who have a reasonable understanding of what they're getting up to want to have. We freak out about teen sex because we freak out about sex generally, and more specifically female sex drive, and we screw up a new generation of people by convincing them that "waiting" is the "right" thing to do and sex is somehow wrong, especially because, but not limited to, the fact that we set up women to be the "check" on male sex drive.
But, no, I don't think the ideal amount of teen sex is zero. I think the ideal amount of teen sex is whatever amount of safe and consensual sex between people who have a reasonable understanding of what they're getting up to want to have. We freak out about teen sex because we freak out about sex generally, and more specifically female sex drive, and we screw up a new generation of people by convincing them that "waiting" is the "right" thing to do and sex is somehow wrong, especially because, but not limited to, the fact that we set up women to be the "check" on male sex drive.
Still Wanking
Apparently Michael O'Hanlon is going for the record for longest wank in the history of wanking.
De-Baathifying the Healthy Forests Under the Clear Skies
The degree to which our elite press still swallows administration bullshit, even when it's transparently bullshit, is truly depressing.
Hard To Get Excited
Indeed the failures of the leadership candidates to actually try to use their existing power to do anything positive has been a big disappointment of the campaign. They're probably doing the smart thing by focusing on their campaigns, but it doesn't mean I have to like it.
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A bomb attack on a residential building in Iraq's northern city of Mosul on Wednesday killed at least seven people and wounded more than 70, police said.
Witnesses said it was one of the biggest explosions they had ever heard in Mosul, part of a region where al Qaeda in Iraq militants have regrouped after being pushed out of Baghdad and western Anbar province.
The Sunni Islamist militant group is blamed for most major bombings in Iraq.
Slut
CNBC bobblehead giving opinion:
I'm telling you somebody went to the Fed over the weekend, and knocked on the Fed's door, and said, "Listen. I am big. I'm someone big. And I have a contagious disease and I slept with the world."
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Reporters Needed
Right now there is probably a lot of behind the scenes stuff going on between the Fed, the Treasury, and various big financial players. Some non-stenographic updates on this stuff would be nice.
Bad
Bernanke the pessimist.
Housing market problems will persist for the next two years minimum, at least in many areas. Just how much that spills over into the rest of the economy is somewhat of an open question.
Met a guy tonight whose job it was/is to bundle up pieces of big shitpile and sell them off tosuckers financial wizards. He certainly couldn't say anything to make me feel any better about all of this.
People wondering why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suddenly moved to reduce the bank borrowing rate by three quarters of a point should know that in private he has expressed growing pessimism about the economy. Whispers has learned that has told people in recent weeks that the economic situation some see falling into recession will be much worse than he has admitted to publicly.
We're told by those who've heard him that he says the first six months of this year will be "bad," an adjective that some interpret this as signaling there is better than a 50-50 chance for a recession. Even worse, the former Princeton prof believes the ensuing recovery will be "weak" because of persistent problems in the housing market that will result in subdued consumer spending.
Housing market problems will persist for the next two years minimum, at least in many areas. Just how much that spills over into the rest of the economy is somewhat of an open question.
Met a guy tonight whose job it was/is to bundle up pieces of big shitpile and sell them off to
The Tweety Effect
It is encouraging that occasionally "The Left" can make some noise and actually get a response. A few years ago it just felt like we were just screaming into the vacuum.
Bailout
CNBC bobblehead now cheering on bailout of MBIA and Ambac (bond insurers). "A public/private bailout that has to be monumental in nature..."
The Inevitable Financial Apocalypse
Just kidding. A few people are confused about my "not sure there will be a bad recession" assertion combined with my obsession with documenting various indications and predictions of total financial meltdown.
I don't think the apocalypse is a likely event. I think that, going forward, there will be a continuing decline in the labor market over the next few months. The foreclosure crisis will continue, with foreclosure levels increasing somewhat. States and local municipalities are going to have big problems dealing with the costs of this, especially in areas where there was a lot of speculation. There will probably be more homebuilders going belly up.
The Feds will do what they have to do to prevent, say, a major bank from going under, for better or for worse.
...adding that I do think moderate to serious economic pain is coming, and that it won't be quick. It might be a long and drawn out period of little-to-no-growth, and there might be an actual recession in there. Certainly there will be regions which are in recession territory if not the economy as a whole.
I don't think the apocalypse is a likely event. I think that, going forward, there will be a continuing decline in the labor market over the next few months. The foreclosure crisis will continue, with foreclosure levels increasing somewhat. States and local municipalities are going to have big problems dealing with the costs of this, especially in areas where there was a lot of speculation. There will probably be more homebuilders going belly up.
The Feds will do what they have to do to prevent, say, a major bank from going under, for better or for worse.
...adding that I do think moderate to serious economic pain is coming, and that it won't be quick. It might be a long and drawn out period of little-to-no-growth, and there might be an actual recession in there. Certainly there will be regions which are in recession territory if not the economy as a whole.
Wasn't Holtz-Eakin Available?
Indeed it's a bit frightening that McCain has decided to exhume the corpse of Phil Gramm.
Jingle All The Way
I know some will find walking away from homes morally unsettling somehow, but I don't see what's wrong with people behaving as businesses would. It's the fault of lenders for not ensuring that people had skin in the game by requiring reasonable down payment levels.
...and, adding, if the banks hadn't lobbied for the awful Bankruptcy Bill more of their customers might be choosing that route instead.
...and, adding, if the banks hadn't lobbied for the awful Bankruptcy Bill more of their customers might be choosing that route instead.
A Really Bad Word
Ah, our elite media, so in touch with the common people.
Even a modest recession will end up hurting a lot of people, and will likely be quite deep in some regions/cities even if the national picture isn't that bad.
Even a modest recession will end up hurting a lot of people, and will likely be quite deep in some regions/cities even if the national picture isn't that bad.
Long
I agree with Krugman that while I don't know how bad a recession will be - or even if there will technically be one - I do think there will be a long period during which it feels like one.
Rentals
I doubt this.
Plenty of condos might be rental units now, but I seriously doubt most of them were "purchased to generate rental income." Rents remained low as prices skyrocketed and no one thought rents would cover mortgage costs. They were bought by flippers who thought they'd cash out quickly.
Painter said when Town Homes of Cape Haze "originally came out, guys were talking about selling units for $500,000. Now the price is in the $250s -- and not a single resale yet."
Most new condos, he said, were purchased to generate rental income.
"They're getting $1,200 a month in rent, tops," Painter said. "It's hard to keep a cash-flow property when you paid $500,000 and can only get $1,200 a month rent."
Plenty of condos might be rental units now, but I seriously doubt most of them were "purchased to generate rental income." Rents remained low as prices skyrocketed and no one thought rents would cover mortgage costs. They were bought by flippers who thought they'd cash out quickly.
The Country's Gain
We can all be thankful for Rudy's implosion. A Giuliani administration would be like Bush's without all the good stuff.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Helicotper Ben to the rescue! Fed drops the rate .75, my old Professor Poole lone dissenter....
Stock futures still way down.
...CNBC guys fighting with each other. Funny.
Stock futures still way down.
...CNBC guys fighting with each other. Funny.
Morning Thread
To paraphrase a commenter over at Firedoglake:
How's that plan for putting social security into the hands of Citibank, Merrill Lynch and the other financial ‘wizards’ as President Bush had so strongly urged looking now?
How's that plan for putting social security into the hands of Citibank, Merrill Lynch and the other financial ‘wizards’ as President Bush had so strongly urged looking now?
Monday, January 21, 2008
Debate
Not watching, but I just read the first chunk of the transcript which arrived in my inbox.
Depressing.
Depressing.
Cramer's World
CNBC:
Bygones.
- Cramer: My Lightning Round Recommendations Are Not Meant To Be Taken At Face Value.
Bygones.
And It's Morning In Australia
Market's open.
Australian shares resumed their slide this morning, with investors joining counterparts around the world to dump their holdings ahead of an expected slowdown in global growth.
In early trading, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 share index had shed nearly 3.7 per cent, down 205.9 points to 5374.5 points, placing the market on course for a record 12th day of declines.
More Happy Talk
From billionaire Mort Zuckerman.
Zuckerman: I don't think it's an exaggeration. It's an understatement. You've heard me say here I think we are facing the worst financial crunch and crisis since the Great Depression. You have the entire banking system now that is virtually frozen and there are not just the sub-prime mortgage thing. There are other things called credit default swaps where they're going to lose as much money, 250 billion dollars on. The banks are frozen. They're not making loans because they have such huge debts that they have to take onto their balance sheets and nobody knows how to deal with that because you had a dramatic...you had two bubbles that have burst at the same time. The housing bubble which has collapsed in this country. The first time since the Great Depression that housing values have gone down for a year since the depression and it's going to go down even more next year. The credit crunch, you've just exploded the whole credit system in this country. We were way over leveraged. The banking system was over-leveraged. People didn't even know about it. The bankers didn't know about it. They didn't access the risk. Now that risk is piling in and every body's going to pay the price. Uh it's going to stimulate nothing other, I mean it's going to destimulate the economy. Nobody has money to lend. They're saving all their money to pay off their debts. They're borrowing money or looking at uh the rest of the world to enhance their capital and it's still not going to solve their problems.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEE
Hold on...
As I've written before, while there were some regional pockets of doom, the national economy just hasn't experienced a protracted downturn in quite some time. The Bush I&II recessions were slight, and the Reagan recession was painful but relatively short.
Asian markets open in a few hours...
University of Maryland economist Carmen Reinhart and Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff agree. They say the current crisis appears on track to be at least as bad as the five most catastrophic financial crises to hit industrialized countries since World War II.
If those past experiences are any guide, the economy is in trouble, they argue in a recent paper. Indeed, "if the United States does not experience a significant and protracted growth slowdown, it should either be considered very lucky or even more 'special' than most optimistic theories suggest," they write.
As I've written before, while there were some regional pockets of doom, the national economy just hasn't experienced a protracted downturn in quite some time. The Bush I&II recessions were slight, and the Reagan recession was painful but relatively short.
Asian markets open in a few hours...
Called
I don't think there's anything wrong with this kind of religion-based identity politics. It certainly doesn't appeal to me, and it isn't designed to. But it isn't in any way outside the rules which our grand and glorious Villagers set up until they decided they didn't like Mike Huckabee.
To be clear, I'm not saying you have to like this stuff, I'm just saying that I don't think it's in any way out of bounds. We've been told for years that politicians should embrace religion, and now a couple of them have in a very explicit fashion. Like any identity-based tribal politics, as a strategy it runs the risk of being exclusionary. And I'm much less likely to push the Obama button in April because of it. But it isn't somehow wrong. In fact it's much better than the be-very-religious-without-any-actual-religion "faith based" rhetoric we previously dealt with. If you think religion is important, and you think voters will respond to that positively, run with it.
To be clear, I'm not saying you have to like this stuff, I'm just saying that I don't think it's in any way out of bounds. We've been told for years that politicians should embrace religion, and now a couple of them have in a very explicit fashion. Like any identity-based tribal politics, as a strategy it runs the risk of being exclusionary. And I'm much less likely to push the Obama button in April because of it. But it isn't somehow wrong. In fact it's much better than the be-very-religious-without-any-actual-religion "faith based" rhetoric we previously dealt with. If you think religion is important, and you think voters will respond to that positively, run with it.
No Other Voting Bloc
I imagine if CNN's Randi Kaye thought a bit harder she could come up with at least one more.
Recent polls show black women are expected to make up more than a third of all Democratic voters in South Carolina's primary in five days.
For these women, a unique, and most unexpected dilemma, presents itself: Should they vote their race, or should they vote their gender?
No other voting bloc in the country faces this choice.
Ah...Capitalism
Fun times.
Jim Cramer is pushing for the government to step in.
an. 21 (Bloomberg) -- ACA Capital Holdings Inc., the bond insurer being run by regulators after subprime-mortgage losses, won a month's grace to unwind $60 billion of credit-default swap contracts that it can't pay.
ACA, under the control of the Maryland Insurance Administration, extended an agreement that waives collateral requirements, policy claims and termination rights until Feb. 19, the New York-based company said in a statement on Business Wire late yesterday.
The insurer said it's working with trading partners ``to develop a permanent solution to stabilize its capital position'' after losses of $1.04 billion in the third quarter.
...
``The monolines are dead, their business model is dead,'' said David Roche, head of investment consultancy Independent Strategy in London. ``The government is going to have to recapitalize this industry or there will be communities in the U.S. where they can't even flush their toilets'' because they can't afford the services.
Jim Cramer is pushing for the government to step in.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
From the "media should stop pretending that nobody could have predicted the housing bubble" file, I give you this from Nov. 2005 from Baker and Rosnick (.pdf).
More Edwards
Josh:
Right. I mean, as I said I can come up with arguments for why Edwards should drop out, but those arguments require some sort of goal. I want him out to help Obama! I want him out to help Clinton! I want him out because I'm tired of looking at his face! Or, maybe even I want him out because that way it'll be more likely he'll get a position in the Cabinet!
But increasingly it seems that John Edwards should drop out... because, well, he just should that's all! Um, why? The honorable thing? WTF?
It's not clear to me which candidate his withdrawal would help most at this point. And depending on what your judgment of that question is, I can see supporters of Hillary or Obama wanting him to get out. That makes sense to me.
But I don't see any reason that Edwards is under any obligation to get out of the race as long as his supporters are willing to fund his campaign.
Right. I mean, as I said I can come up with arguments for why Edwards should drop out, but those arguments require some sort of goal. I want him out to help Obama! I want him out to help Clinton! I want him out because I'm tired of looking at his face! Or, maybe even I want him out because that way it'll be more likely he'll get a position in the Cabinet!
But increasingly it seems that John Edwards should drop out... because, well, he just should that's all! Um, why? The honorable thing? WTF?
The Honorable Thing
Julian Epstein just told all 5 of us watching MSNBC that "the honorable thing" for John Edwards to do would be to drop out if he does poorly in South Carolina.
Could anyone explain the details of this particular code of honor to me? I mean, there are certainly arguments that can be made for why John Edwards should drop out, but I have no idea how any of them include a concept of "honor."
Could anyone explain the details of this particular code of honor to me? I mean, there are certainly arguments that can be made for why John Edwards should drop out, but I have no idea how any of them include a concept of "honor."
The End of the HELOC Era
What happens when people can no longer finance their lifestyles by pulling fantasy equity out of their homes?
We're going to find out.
We're going to find out.
Obama Ad
Since Pennsylvania's primary is in 2010, or whatever, it's a bit surprising to see a Obama ad which I just did.
...yeah, as people point out that ad was probably intended for New Jersey. Still it shows that digital cable has really failed to do the kind of ad targeting it's capable of doing. Ad was on CNN, and it's pretty stupid that Comcast wouldn't allow Jersey-only ads.
...yeah, as people point out that ad was probably intended for New Jersey. Still it shows that digital cable has really failed to do the kind of ad targeting it's capable of doing. Ad was on CNN, and it's pretty stupid that Comcast wouldn't allow Jersey-only ads.
Stimulus
Krugman explains the basic textbook reasoning for why an economic stimulus should be focused on lower income individuals.
Another good thing to do would be to fund productive public infrastructure projects. The downside of doing so would be that such projects can take time to plan before the money already gets spent, though there are plenty of projects that are essentially just waiting for funding. The upsides are: presumably a lot of jobs being lost are in residential and commercial real estate construction, and increasing public infrastructure expenditures would provide a jobs cushion for those people; there are a lot of crumbling bridges which need to be repaired as there's been a lot of absurd and ultimately costly "deferred maintenance"; smart projects will have later benefits.
Along those lines, Fred Hiatt is shocked that insane conservative free market ideologues like the ones his paper publishes on a regular basis actually mean the things they say!
Another good thing to do would be to fund productive public infrastructure projects. The downside of doing so would be that such projects can take time to plan before the money already gets spent, though there are plenty of projects that are essentially just waiting for funding. The upsides are: presumably a lot of jobs being lost are in residential and commercial real estate construction, and increasing public infrastructure expenditures would provide a jobs cushion for those people; there are a lot of crumbling bridges which need to be repaired as there's been a lot of absurd and ultimately costly "deferred maintenance"; smart projects will have later benefits.
Along those lines, Fred Hiatt is shocked that insane conservative free market ideologues like the ones his paper publishes on a regular basis actually mean the things they say!
People I Don't Bother To Listen To
Self-proclaimed moderates, independents, centrists.
Self-proclaimed truth-tellers.
Self-proclaimed truth-tellers.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Duh:
WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration is beginning its last year in office by quietly scaling back its foreign policy ambitions as it struggles with new obstacles and rapidly dwindling influence.
Only a few months ago, senior officials predicted that before their exit, they could deliver the Middle East peace deal that had eluded so many predecessors. But this month, as President Bush toured Israel and the West Bank, officials made it clear that the deal he's now talking about is not a long-awaited final agreement, but a preliminary pact to set the terms for talks.
In addition, the administration's efforts to get North Korea and Iran to end their nuclear programs have suffered deflating setbacks in recent weeks. And although the administration's greatest foreign policy undertaking, Iraq, has seen encouraging security improvements, the goal of Iraqi political reconciliation remains distant.
The upshot is that the Bush administration is going to be spending the next year managing crises and tidying up messes until the next president takes over, rather than reaching legacy milestones, as officials recently had hoped.
Morning Thread
Have we ended the season of Favre love, only to see it replaced with McCain love?
If only there was a picture that went with this post?
If only there was a picture that went with this post?
Sunday, January 20, 2008
The Surge Is A Glorious Success
Indeed:
Hundreds of billions of dollars gone and hundreds of US troops dead so that George Bush and the Villagers can continue to have their wonderful war.
In only one respect has the surge achieved undeniable success: It has ensured that U.S. troops won't be coming home anytime soon.
Hundreds of billions of dollars gone and hundreds of US troops dead so that George Bush and the Villagers can continue to have their wonderful war.
Beauty Contests
I think the above chart from CNN shows the problem with the coverage of these races Apparently Obama won New Hampshire and tied in Nevada (not sure if anyone's definitively figured out that last part)! Although Clinton gets the little red check signaling victory.
Perhaps now the coverage will actually start focusing on the delegate counts and how they're ultimately what matters. Some voters might actually be interested in finding out just what these "superdelegate" things are, too.
Ironic
I really can't imagine what it must have been like to grow up in Tim Russert's world. Women just freak them out completely.
So Super
For all the obsession of with the horserace, it's been surprisingly focused on the Horse Race Right Now Based On Prevailing Press Narratives, instead of actually talking about stuff which might actually be a bit more interesting. Obviously Super Tuesday matters for candidates who are trying to collect delegates, otherwise known as candidates not named Giuliani. I assume the various campaigns have strategies for which states they intend to focus on, try to win, etc., but I've heard basically nothing about it.
Yazidi
Like so many others, that story just faded away.
* BAGHDAD - The U.S. military said the final death toll in multiple truck bombings targeting Iraq's minority Yazidi sect in northern Iraq last August was 796.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
“Fox News Sunday,” Guests: Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, a Republican presidential candidate, and Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat.
•NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Guest: Doris Kearns Goodwin, presidential historian.
•ABC’s “This Week,” Guests: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Republican presidential candidate, and Rep. Charles Rangel, a New York Democrat.
•CBS’ “Face the Nation,” Guests: Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, a Democratic presidential candidate; David Axelrod, strategist for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign; Howard Wolfson, communications director for Sen. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.
•CNN’s“Late Edition,” Rep. James Clyburn, a South Carolina Democrat; Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton, a District of Columbia Democrat; Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, a Democrat.
McCain's Base
I think McCain is easy to beat as a candidate, but I don't think my mental health will survive the press fluffing of him for all these months.
Morning Thread
Honestly, it's almost as depressing when MoDo actually writes about the issues, since it shows that her Heather persona isn't her only trick. It's just the one she likes best.
--Molly I.
--Molly I.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Evening Thread
On your own tonight. Got some bunnies to boil.
...here's a shot of Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann anchoring MSNBC's election coverage.
...here's a shot of Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann anchoring MSNBC's election coverage.
NBC Calls Nevada For Clinton
Schmidt calls South Carolina for Tancredo.
...project 38 delegates for Clinton, 37 for Obama...
...project 38 delegates for Clinton, 37 for Obama...
Deep Thought
The result in Nevada is excellent news for Rudy Giuliani.
...MSNBC just said that their entrance polls - showing big Clinton win - didn't include the strip locations. FYI
...MSNBC just said that their entrance polls - showing big Clinton win - didn't include the strip locations. FYI
Deep Thought
There are several viable Republican candidates, despite the fact that many of them haven't won anything, but only two viable Democratic ones.
Delegate Strategy
It's amazing the degree to which the actual mechanics of winning the primary contests are ignored in favor of how various outcomes impact press narratives that the press is somehow powerless to control.
Saint Petraeus
The absurdity of everything continues. It's just impossible for common sense and facts to penetrate our contemporary discourse anymore. I have no idea whether weapons are coming from Iran - whether from inside its borders or as some sort of organized plot by the Iranian state or elements of it - but this notion that any IED which is an EFP comes from Iran, which is how Saint Petraeus and his press stenographers portray it, is just flat out false. But he's Joe Klein's source, so we know he wouldn't lie. Just like Pete Hoekstra.
"Signature attacks." Because those stupid Arabs who until recently had Weapons of Mass Destruction which were an existential threat to the United States couldn't possibly make these bombs. Only the wily Persians could, as directed to by their leader Mullah Hitler VI.
Except, you know, not.
Still if someone's killed by a bomb that's Al Qaeda. And if it's a "special" bomb it's Sunni Al Qaeda being armed by Shia Iran, because al Qaeda, the Greatest Enemy Ever, can't make bombs and has to get tem from Shiites who are happy to supply them with bombs that AQ uses to kill Shiites. If none of this makes any sense it's because none of this makes any fucking sense. All hail Saint Petraeus!
"During the first half of January there were as many IEDs (improvised explosive devices) as there were in all of December," Defense Secretary Robert Gates told reporters aboard a plane after a visit in Charleston, South Carolina.
Gates' military adviser, Peter Chiarelli, said later the secretary was actually referring to explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), which US officials say Iran has been supplying to insurgents in Iraq.
General David Petraeus, the commander of US forces in Iraq, said Wednesday that EFP attacks had dropped in recent months but increased at the start of January.
"The signature attacks that employ Iranian-provided weapons have decreased substantially," he told a small group of reporters accompanying him on his visit to the Iraq-Iran border post at Zurbitiyah.
"Signature attacks." Because those stupid Arabs who until recently had Weapons of Mass Destruction which were an existential threat to the United States couldn't possibly make these bombs. Only the wily Persians could, as directed to by their leader Mullah Hitler VI.
Except, you know, not.
Bleichwehl said troops, facing scattered resistance, discovered a factory that produced "explosively formed penetrators" (EFPs), a particularly deadly type of explosive that can destroy a main battle tank and several weapons caches.
Still if someone's killed by a bomb that's Al Qaeda. And if it's a "special" bomb it's Sunni Al Qaeda being armed by Shia Iran, because al Qaeda, the Greatest Enemy Ever, can't make bombs and has to get tem from Shiites who are happy to supply them with bombs that AQ uses to kill Shiites. If none of this makes any sense it's because none of this makes any fucking sense. All hail Saint Petraeus!
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Members of an obscure messianic cult fought pitched battles Friday with Iraqi security forces in two southern cities, leaving at least 80 people dead, injuring scores and spreading panic among worshipers marking Shiite Islam's holiest holiday.
Morning thread
Have a linky post I just saw. (I think I may have to write something about language and race, but I'll probably do that at my place.)
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Midnight Ranting
I'm going to second Avedon: call your senators.
Especially if (like me) one of your senators is running for president. Leadership, Hillary & Barack, leadership. Show it. NO on retroactive telecom immunity for domestic spying.
NO. Yelling at these people helps. And if Hillary's your senator, go here. And if Barack's your senator, go here.
Be polite but be heard. NO to retroactive immunity: YES to the Constitution.
This really is a major issue, and a chance for two of the major candidates for the Democratic nomination to show their mettle in a fight over something that matters -- not just a soundbite joust. Let them know we're watching. Very, very closely.
Especially if (like me) one of your senators is running for president. Leadership, Hillary & Barack, leadership. Show it. NO on retroactive telecom immunity for domestic spying.
NO. Yelling at these people helps. And if Hillary's your senator, go here. And if Barack's your senator, go here.
Be polite but be heard. NO to retroactive immunity: YES to the Constitution.
This really is a major issue, and a chance for two of the major candidates for the Democratic nomination to show their mettle in a fight over something that matters -- not just a soundbite joust. Let them know we're watching. Very, very closely.
Friday, January 18, 2008
FISA
I was going to rant about this, but you need a new thread more than I need to vent. Just remember to call your Senators, okay?
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
If?
And Ambac is downgraded.
If Ambac and MBIA lose their top ratings, billions of dollars of muni bonds will be downgraded, and the guarantees that have been sold on mortgage-related securities such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, will lose value.
"The destruction of the bond insurers would likely bring write-downs at major banks and financial institutions that would put current write-downs to shame," Tamara Kravec, an analyst at Banc of America Securities, wrote in a note Friday.
Kravec cut her rating on Ambac and MBIA on Friday because she thinks that ratings downgrades are "highly probable" now.
And Ambac is downgraded.
sprezzatura
From blogofascists to blogocommies.
I guess as with Lee Siegel's intellectual peer, Jonah, it's all the same to him.
...how stupid is our discourse that you can successfully pitch a book proposal based on the notion that people on the internets were mean to you after you acted like the biggest tosser in history.
I guess as with Lee Siegel's intellectual peer, Jonah, it's all the same to him.
...how stupid is our discourse that you can successfully pitch a book proposal based on the notion that people on the internets were mean to you after you acted like the biggest tosser in history.
Worst. Campaign. Ever.
While not quite as bad as Rudy's campaign, one should also remember a certain Democratic frontrunner who threw it all away...
That article's from last Spring, so we aren't at the same point in the campaign now.
WASHINGTON - Sen. Joe Lieberman — stalwart supporter of the invasion of Iraq — as the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee?
Unthinkable? In retrospect, yes, but according to the Gallup Poll of 438 Democrats in April 2003 — at a point about where we now are in the 2008 presidential campaign cycle — Lieberman was the Democratic frontrunner.
He got 23 percent of Democrats in the Gallup survey, defeating Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., who placed second, and an array of other Democrats.
That article's from last Spring, so we aren't at the same point in the campaign now.
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD — For the second time in two days, a suicide bomber struck outside a Shiite mosque in Diyala Province north of Baghdad on Thursday, as worshipers prepared for one of the most important days in the Shiite calendar. The police and witnesses said at least 11 people were killed.
The bomber attacked a civilian checkpoint near the Shafta mosque in Baquba during the ceremony of Ashura, which commemorates the seventh-century slaying of Imam Hussein, the Prophet Muhammad’s grandson and a revered figure to Shiites.
Witnesses said that moments before the blast a policeman named Baseem seized the bomber and began shouting, “stranger,” but was too late to stop the explosion, which killed both men and at least nine other people. Fifteen people were wounded.
Lucy, Football
Call me cynical, but I'll be very surprised if the White House doesn't spend a few days telling the country everyone's gonna get an $800 check and then demand some bullshit in the bill which the Dems, frightened, will cave on...
Stimulus
John Hardwood said the proposed stimulus would involve checks cut to people and the checks would be a "credit against the payroll tax."
Wonder if he was being precise. If so, the money's coming out of those social security file cabinets instead of general revenue.
Wonder if he was being precise. If so, the money's coming out of those social security file cabinets instead of general revenue.
Just A Little More Time...
This really is getting absurd.
Essentially this would mean that those who bought insurance would fork over money to the insurance company to maintain the fiction that they're actually insured.
It's akin to bailing water from the port side of the boat to the starboard side in an attempt to prevent it from sinking.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Struggling bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty Corp is set to ask trading partners for more time to unwind its insurance contracts, The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.
Standard & Poor's in December cut ACA Financial Guaranty's credit rating to junk.
...
Friday's report, quoting people familiar with the matter, said ACA is likely to announce an extension to give it more time to work out arrangements.
One possible solution would be a rescue plan giving the counterparties stakes in a restructured bond-insurance company, while another was a capital infusion, it said.
Essentially this would mean that those who bought insurance would fork over money to the insurance company to maintain the fiction that they're actually insured.
It's akin to bailing water from the port side of the boat to the starboard side in an attempt to prevent it from sinking.
Your Moment of Zen
G. Gordon Liddy, May 7, 2003, Hardball:
LIDDY: Well, I -- in the first place, I think it's envy. I mean, after all, Al Gore had to go get some woman to tell him how to be a man. And here comes George Bush. You know, he's in his flight suit, he's striding across the deck, and he's wearing his parachute harness, you know -- and I've worn those because I parachute -- and it makes the best of his manly characteristic. You go run those -- run that stuff again of him walking across there with the parachute. He has just won every woman's vote in the United States of America. You know, all those women who say size doesn't count -- they're all liars. Check that out. I hope the Democrats keep ratting on him and all of this stuff so that they keep showing that tape.
The Rest Of Us
Yglesias:
This true, but it's even worse than this. Aside from general cluelessness about those lovable "heartland"* voters they claim to speak for, part of the long-running conservative campaign to trumpet the myth of the liberal media has been to go on the attack every time a news outlet actually writes about poor people or economic misfortune. Economic difficulty just isn't covered in a comprehensive sense.
*I use the term heartland not in its geographic sense but in the amorphous "real Americans who live somewhere outside the Beltway but probably not NYC or California" sense that reporters mean when they throw it around.
... CNN just now: "It's not the people in autos and steel like past recessions. We've got financial services people being laid off, people in the retailing sector and everything that flows out of housing...
...this is a time when there are still jobs, so even though you're a young executive, you might want to go out and get a weekend job as a waitress, in the evening, something like that..."
One thing that doesn't get talked about enough is that people in Washington are pretty out of touch with the basic economic picture in the United States. Not in the usual, pat, pseudo-populist "oh you're out of touch" sense but in a pretty literal one -- the DC metro area is both quite affluent and economically unusual; much of our region is experiencing a war-driven boom that doesn't have much to do with the experience of other areas (though parts of the southwest are, I believe, the same way).
This true, but it's even worse than this. Aside from general cluelessness about those lovable "heartland"* voters they claim to speak for, part of the long-running conservative campaign to trumpet the myth of the liberal media has been to go on the attack every time a news outlet actually writes about poor people or economic misfortune. Economic difficulty just isn't covered in a comprehensive sense.
*I use the term heartland not in its geographic sense but in the amorphous "real Americans who live somewhere outside the Beltway but probably not NYC or California" sense that reporters mean when they throw it around.
... CNN just now: "It's not the people in autos and steel like past recessions. We've got financial services people being laid off, people in the retailing sector and everything that flows out of housing...
...this is a time when there are still jobs, so even though you're a young executive, you might want to go out and get a weekend job as a waitress, in the evening, something like that..."
More Layoffs
Sprint:
Sprint Nextel, the No. 3 U.S. mobile service, said it would cut about 4,000 jobs within the company, close 125 stores and reduce its use of outsourced services to improve its financial performance.
Default Odds
Bond insurers:
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two biggest bond insurers, have a more than 70 percent chance of going bankrupt, credit-default swaps show.
Prices for contracts that pay investors if Armonk, New York- based MBIA can't meet its debt obligations imply a 71 percent chance the company will default in the next five years, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. valuation model. For New York-based Ambac, credit-default swaps show the odds are 73 percent.
...
The bond insurers place their AAA stamp on $2.4 trillion of debt sold by thousands of municipalities across the country, as well as subprime-mortgage securities. Losing those rankings may cost borrowers and investors as much as $200 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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