Chuck Schumer, over a year ago:
Sen. Charles Schumer, architect of the new Democratic Senate majority, argues that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the 2008 elections will not center on Iraq.
"I think Iraq will not be as strong an issue in the 2008 elections," said the senior senator from New York, as he enters his second straight cycle as chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "I think the surge will fail and the president will have no choice but to begin removing troops."
It's quite possible that there will be enough of a domestic clusterfuck that the election won't "center" on Iraq, though there's certainly evidence that the public is linking the domestic situation with the war.
But, no, there was no chance Bush would ever remove troops unless he was forced to do so.