Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Deep Thought
I am shocked that Americans are more concerned with George Bush than Reverend Wright. Apparently my imaginary cab driver lied to me.
Oh Thank God
The stupid bloggers versus journalists conversation comes to sports journalism.
I had no idea Buzz Bissinger was such a wanker.
I had no idea Buzz Bissinger was such a wanker.
Sammiches
Ezra's trying to restart the great sammich war of aught '06.
Best I've had in Philly are at Pumpkin Market on the 1600 block at South and the Banh Mi at Cafe Nhuy at 8th and Christian.
I'll stay out of the great cheesesteak wars, but Locust Bar has a pretty good chicken cheesesteak.
Best I've had in Philly are at Pumpkin Market on the 1600 block at South and the Banh Mi at Cafe Nhuy at 8th and Christian.
I'll stay out of the great cheesesteak wars, but Locust Bar has a pretty good chicken cheesesteak.
The Heloc Years
Even though I've seen quite a few of these, I just continue to be stunned at the amount of fake equity people were pulling out of their homes. "They put in $15,600 and took out $599,800. "
The Jeffrey Goldberg Files
We finally found the ponies.
Yet Goldberg enjoys a sterling reputation. The Atlantic's wealthy owner, David Bradley, reportedly sent Goldberg's children ponies in order to convince the reporter to leave The New Yorker for the prestigious magazine. "He's incredibly persistent and makes you feel like you're God's gift to journalism," Goldberg said of Bradley. The Washington Post media critic Howard Kurtz approvingly referred to Bradley's pursuit of "top talent."
But it seems as though, despite Goldberg's ability to escape accountability for his journalistic malpractice, he can't help smirking to attentive readers. The cover story of the January/February edition of The Atlantic featured Goldberg's meditations on the post-Iraq Middle East. It featured, of all things, a discursion into "a decrepit prison in Iraqi Kurdistan" where "a senior interrogator with the Kurdish intelligence service" tortured an Arab prisoner. Goldberg mentioned not a word of what his last dalliance with Kurdish intelligence yielded. To anyone who read his 2002 and 2003 pieces, it appeared that The Atlantic writer was returning to the scene of the crime.
Nearly 4,000 Americans and perhaps hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, and counting, will not have the same opportunity.
The Jeffrey Goldberg Files
A little walk down memory lane.
Profoundly moral deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
There is not sufficient space…for me to refute some of the arguments made in Slate over the past week against intervention, arguments made, I have noticed, by people with limited experience in the Middle East (Their lack of experience causes them to reach the naive conclusion that an invasion of Iraq will cause America to be loathed in the Middle East, rather than respected)…
The administration is planning today to launch what many people would undoubtedly call a short-sighted and inexcusable act of aggression. In five years, however, I believe that the coming invasion of Iraq will be remembered as an act of profound morality.
Profoundly moral deaths of hundreds of thousands of people.
Drowning
WHEEEE
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- About half of recent subprime and Alt-A borrowers may soon owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth or hold minimal equity, putting $800 billion of debt at greater risk of default, according to Barclays Capital.
Subprime loans from 2006 and 2007 that exceed the value of the homes jumped 5 percentage points to 19.8 percent in the fourth quarter, and may reach 26 percent by midyear if prices drop at the same pace, Barclays analysts wrote in a report yesterday. Alt-A loans, a grade better than subprime, would grow to 23 percent from 16.3 percent.
Objective Analysis
CNN brings on a guy from Cato to talk about the gas tax. Did you know we had an awesome state highway system before the Feds started building the interstate system?
Why does Cato hate Eisenhower and, by extension, America?
Why does Cato hate Eisenhower and, by extension, America?
Elevating Assholes
It appears the Atlantic has hired a pretentious commentless blogging git whose gullible advocacy led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. How he manages to live with himself is a mystery, and why The Atlantic thinks we should live with him is a deeper one.
Still I look forward to to a lively discussion with fellow Atlantic blogger Yglesias.
Still I look forward to to a lively discussion with fellow Atlantic blogger Yglesias.
Fast and Easy
Countrywide had a pretty wide stance.
Countrywide Financial Corp. reported an $893 million loss for the
first quarter, amid mounting evidence of serious problems with its
underwriting of many home loans.
A federal probe of Countrywide, the nation's largest mortgage lender,
is turning up evidence that sales executives at the company
deliberately overlooked inflated income figures for many borrowers,
people with knowledge of the investigation say.
Some of the problems are surfacing in a mortgage program called "Fast
and Easy," in which borrowers were asked to provide little or no
documentation of their finances, according to these people and to
former Countrywide employees. Both Countrywide and Fannie Mae, the
government-sponsored company that bought many of the loans, classify
the loans as "prime," meaning low-risk.
Fast and Easy borrowers aren't required to produce pay stubs or tax
forms to substantiate their claimed earnings. In many cases,
Countrywide didn't even require loan officers to verify employment,
according to an October 2006 presentation by Countrywide's consumer-
lending division. That left the program vulnerable to abuse by
Countrywide loan officers and outside mortgage brokers seeking loans
for customers who might have been turned away if their finances had
been more closely scrutinized, according to three current and former
Countrywide senior executives and to several mortgage brokers who
arranged loans through the program.
Morning thread
My Disgust-o-meter says my level of disgust this morning is really high. And that's just one little thing.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Other Countries Don't Understand Us
Just watched the first episode of the UK show Spooks, shown locally under the name of MI-5. A central plot premise was that in the post-9/11 era, the US government would have such a hardon for catching terrorists that they'd put extreme pressure on the British government to get the capture and extradition of an anti-abortion terrorist.
not.
not.
Big Shitpile Needs Food
Feed it!
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the U.S. bank hit with writedowns on subprime mortgages and bonds, is selling $3 billion of stock two weeks after reporting its second straight quarterly loss.
The shares are being sold in a public offering, New York- based Citigroup said today in a statement. Citigroup already has raised more than $30 billion of capital since December. After posting a first-quarter loss of $5.1 billion on April 18, Chief Financial OfficerGary Crittenden said he couldn't rule out additional rounds of capital-raising.
Rambling and Strident
Something just wasn't right for a certain generation of science fiction authors.
Meanwhile
This election is going to be much much stupider than the last time. Last time much of the stupid was at least nominally about serious issues, this time it's just all about the stupid.
Barrmania
Anyone living through the impeachment era would've been unlikely to believe that uberhack Bob Barr could evolve into a somewhat principled civil libertarian.
Barr for president!
Barr for president!
Life Is Unfair
What has long set me off more than other things is a sense of injustice. Obviously I'm me so perceived injustices to me tend to matter quite a bit, but it's difficult for me to even think about this kind of thing. It gives me a sick feeling inside.
There are two bits to this kind of injustice. One is that you've put an innocent man in jail for a very long time. That sucks. The other is that the actual perpetrator of the crime is walking free. That sucks too.
A Dallas man who spent more than 27 years in prison for a murder he didn't commit was freed Tuesday, after being incarcerated longer than any other wrongfully convicted U.S. inmate cleared by DNA testing.
There are two bits to this kind of injustice. One is that you've put an innocent man in jail for a very long time. That sucks. The other is that the actual perpetrator of the crime is walking free. That sucks too.
The Audacity To Be Different
The answer is that it's elitist to do anything but conform to the prevailing social norms. It's elitist to believe that you can do things differently.
Somewhat related, I've long been struck how the standard flavor of internet glibertarianism* we see also has a giant conformist streak in it.
*internet glibertarianism being somewhat distinct from actual libertarianism.
Somewhat related, I've long been struck how the standard flavor of internet glibertarianism* we see also has a giant conformist streak in it.
*internet glibertarianism being somewhat distinct from actual libertarianism.
Real Journalism
Yglesias:
It is a weird thing how so much of the concept of "real journalism" involves getting people on the phone and getting them to talk to you, especially when there are plenty of other ways to obtain and communicate relevant and necessary information to the public.
It's especially weird as the journalist-as-intermediary is an increasingly unnecessary role.
Kudos to Sam Stein for writing this up. Checking the record by using Nexis doesn't count as "reporting" under the fairly arbitrary rules governing "real journalism" but it sure can be valuable.
It is a weird thing how so much of the concept of "real journalism" involves getting people on the phone and getting them to talk to you, especially when there are plenty of other ways to obtain and communicate relevant and necessary information to the public.
It's especially weird as the journalist-as-intermediary is an increasingly unnecessary role.
Walking Away
This article goes a bit beyond "I hear people are walking away" and provides people who actually walked.
Elizabeth Levensohn walked away from her Mount Dora home about six months ago -- before You Walk Away existed -- and says it was the best thing she has ever done.
She bought the house for just more than $100,000 a little more than two years ago.
"It was the only house I could afford," Levensohn said.
At the time, it seemed like a good decision. She thought she'd be able to pay the mortgage on her salary as a school director at an Orlando church. Commuting wasn't that expensive. The cottage was less than 700 square feet, just enough room for Levensohn and her daughter, Isabella, 12.
Within a year, she knew it was the biggest mistake of her life.
When she and Isabella were down to eating ramen and beans and rice, she knew something had to give.
She decided to walk away from the house and let it go into foreclosure.
Now she rents an apartment and lives a car-free -- and, she said, relatively stress-free -- life in Orlando.
Keeping It Classy
Governor Easley:
2 a usually disparaging : a weak or effeminate man or boy b usually disparaging : a male homosexual
Easley concluded his remarks saying Clinton -- "makes Rocky Balboa look like a pansy".
2 a usually disparaging : a weak or effeminate man or boy b usually disparaging : a male homosexual
Strategery
One of the weird things about the Clinton campaign is that their win-by-superdelegate strategy was somewhat at odds with their "most states don't matter" strategy. A lot of supes, you know, come from those states that don't matter.
His campaign also just announced a 50-state voter mobilization. That reflects another pitch to nonelected party officials: That Sen. Obama would work to build the party even in Republican "red" states, and has the money to do it, while Sen. Clinton focuses only on Democratic "blue" states and battlegrounds such as Ohio.
Interviews with party officials suggest this appeal has effectively exploited lingering resentments that the DNC, under President Clinton, abandoned the red states. "Obama has made it absolutely clear he's committed to the 50-state strategy, and the Clintons obviously aren't," says Nebraska party chairman Steve Achepohl, who endorsed Sen. Obama last week. "That's a major factor for all the party people in smaller states."
Presser
Bush up at 10:30. These things just get more and more comical. He at least used to try, was heavily prepped. Now it's just nonsensical babble.
Foreclosed
Not over yet.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home foreclosure filings jumped 23 percent in the first quarter from the prior quarter, and more than doubled from a year earlier, as more overextended borrowers failed to make timely payments, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Tuesday.
One of every 194 households received a notice of default, auction sale or bank repossession between January and March, for the seventh straight quarter of rising foreclosure activity, RealtyTrac said.
Foreclosure filings were far-reaching, rising on an annual basis in 46 states and in 90 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, to a total of 649,917 properties. The first quarter filings surged 112 percent from the same period last year.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Cats
I've always assumed they were a bit easier than children, though lately I'm not so sure. One demands to sit on my lap for hours each day, and not the "passive take a nap" kind of way, but in the claw comes out if you dare to try to type instead of pet me kind of way. Currently kneading my thigh. The other one, though more content with more passive contact usually, comes running when he hears me putting on my socks. Why? Well, when I'm putting on my socks my hands are at cat level. And shoes are next, so there's a bonus. And if he just wanders back and forth while I'm putting them on he inevitably gets petted. Never mind that in that process I'm likely to accidentally boot him in the head. Or that somehow in that process I managed to sprain and/or break one of my toes.
And then there are the early AM wakeups...
And then there are the early AM wakeups...
Meanwhile
Over there.
But they can stay there until people stop shooting at them so that there will come a time when they can stay there without people shooting at them.
At least 44 American soldiers have been killed in Iraq in April, making it the deadliest month for U.S. forces since September.
The U.S. military said three soldiers were killed in eastern Baghdad by indirect fire, a reference to mortars or rockets. The statement did not give an exact location for the attack, but the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City has been the scene of intense fighting recently with Shiite militiamen.
A fourth U.S. soldier was killed by a shell in western Baghdad, the military said.
But they can stay there until people stop shooting at them so that there will come a time when they can stay there without people shooting at them.
Different Now
Stoller:
Despite always thinking that the internet was a very awesome thing, I've been rather skeptical about some of the more extravagant enthusiasm of some of its boosters. I've seen it as a tool to do a lot of things, and quite a wonderful tool. And while it's certainly affected life in a lot of ways, I never quite saw it as transformational in a revolutionary sense.
But when I start thinking about what it must be like to grow up with the internet, I realize that I was probably a bit too skeptical. The internet generation is going to grow up with a fundamentally altered sense of their relationship to information and knowledge, to each other, and to the world generally. It's going to be a new generational divide.
I remember being a kid and having nowhere to go and nothing to do, no public spaces and no conception of what one would be like. TV was TV, I wasn't allowed to watch it on the weekdays, but what else was there? Now you see Wookiepedia for Star Wars fans and an entire ecosystem of fan sites and communities for every show out there, as well as every hobbyist subculture, of which politics is in many ways just one.
Despite always thinking that the internet was a very awesome thing, I've been rather skeptical about some of the more extravagant enthusiasm of some of its boosters. I've seen it as a tool to do a lot of things, and quite a wonderful tool. And while it's certainly affected life in a lot of ways, I never quite saw it as transformational in a revolutionary sense.
But when I start thinking about what it must be like to grow up with the internet, I realize that I was probably a bit too skeptical. The internet generation is going to grow up with a fundamentally altered sense of their relationship to information and knowledge, to each other, and to the world generally. It's going to be a new generational divide.
Smartbike DC
I did not know Clear Channel was behind this stuff.
I saw this in action in Barcelona, and was surprised at how well it actually seemed to work.
Looks like DC will need quite a few more locations before it's really useful, but it's a start.
I saw this in action in Barcelona, and was surprised at how well it actually seemed to work.
Looks like DC will need quite a few more locations before it's really useful, but it's a start.
Trashouts
What fun.
Jack O’Leary has seen foreclosed homes where ex-owners put paint on the carpets, anti-bank graffiti on the walls or took everything but the kitchen sink - then stole that, too.
“I’ve gone into houses where the light fixtures are gone, the toilets are gone, the kitchen is gone. And when I say ‘gone,’ we’re talking stripped down to the bare walls,” said O’Leary, a Brockton Re/Max real estate agent who specializes in foreclosed homes.
...
Agents say that while they can’t condone vandalism or theft, they sometimes understand the frustration - or desperation - that leads to such acts.
“Some of these homeowners were victimized (by scam mortgages) and have legitimate gripes,” O’Leary said.
But the agent also recalls one case where a foreclosure “victim” had two new SUVs, a 25-foot boat and a 45-foot motor home parked in the driveway.
Exciting New Records
To be fair, one of those homes is mine so I'm part of the problem.
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- A record 18.6 million U.S. homes stood empty in the first quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure.
The figure is 5.7 percent higher than a year ago, when 17.6 million properties were vacant, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. The vacancy rate, the share of homes empty and for sale, rose to 2.9 percent, the highest in a series that goes back to 1956. About 2.3 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 2.2 million a year earlier, the report said.
Deep Thought
Nobody could have predicted that Republicans would attack a Democrat as being effete, elitist, and unpatriotic.
Consensus Estimate
Wasn't so long ago that this was considered to be crazy talk.
April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn said he's ``pessimistic'' on the outlook for financial markets and predicted losses from the global credit turmoil may climb to $1 trillion.
...
``It does seem to be a major adjustment on any level,'' Wolfensohn said, after addressing the European Pensions and Savings Summit 2008. ``There may be a $1,000 billion worth of losses in it somewhere.'' He said he ``cannot recall anything similar, certainly in the last 30 to 40 years that I've worked.''
The International Monetary Fund predicts that losses from the crisis, including those tied to commercial real-estate, may total $945 billion and says global economic expansion may be the slowest since 2003 this year. Wolfensohn said the fund's loss forecast of about $1 trillion is now a ``consensus estimate.''
Stupid Story of the Day
Apparently I'm supposed to be outraged over Hannah Montana's naked shoulder, so outraged that I'll refuse to buy the Hannah Montana rock bikini for my daughter.
Or something.
Or something.
Walking Away
NPR has another story on the Florida real estate market.
These people are a staple of housing stories, but it's really hard to know how many people are just abandoning their properties because they figure there's no reason to be stuck with negative equity if they don't have to. I'm sure these people exist, and I don't have any problem with what they're doing. Once upon a time for various reasons we could have seen the 30 year fixed mortgage as part of a special kind of social contract, but once the exotic mortgages and dishonest lending practices proliferated that got chucked out the window.
Still I wish reporters doing these stories would try to actually get some hard numbers or evidence of people walking away, rather than just passing on unsupported claims of their existence.
Even some buyers who can afford their mortgages are opting to quit paying because they owe too much, Speronis says. With prices falling, some amazing deals are now on the market, and owners figure they can better themselves by purchasing another home and walking away from their existing properties, she says.
These people are a staple of housing stories, but it's really hard to know how many people are just abandoning their properties because they figure there's no reason to be stuck with negative equity if they don't have to. I'm sure these people exist, and I don't have any problem with what they're doing. Once upon a time for various reasons we could have seen the 30 year fixed mortgage as part of a special kind of social contract, but once the exotic mortgages and dishonest lending practices proliferated that got chucked out the window.
Still I wish reporters doing these stories would try to actually get some hard numbers or evidence of people walking away, rather than just passing on unsupported claims of their existence.
Crazy Talk
There's this guy on my teevee talking about how our government supported Apartheid and the peasant-killing Contras using money gained by selling arms to Iran. Oh and 4000+ US troops died in Iraq over a lie.
Going Backwards
It's 2008 and apparently there's an outrage campaign about a show and its ad campaign which features teenagers drinking, having sex, and taking drugs.
Rock Star Endorsement Watch
Roger Waters goes for Obama, while the world waits for guidance from David Gilmour.
But Waters' biggest prop was an inflatable pig the size of a school bus that emerged while he played a version of "Pigs" from 1977's capitalism critique, "Animals."
The pig, which was led above the crowd from lines held on the ground, displayed the words "Don't be led to the slaughter" and a cartoon of Uncle Sam wielding two bloody cleavers. The other side read "Fear builds walls."
The underside of the pig simply read "Obama" with a checked ballot box alongside.
As Waters drew the song to a close, flame bursts exploded on the sides of the stage and the swine floated into the night sky. Waters said sadly and comically, "That's my pig."
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Capital Gains
This post follows from a discussion about a Media Matters item that hasn't been posted yet, but I think we should all be armed with the information so we can put a silver bullet into this zombie lie's head.
With talk of raising the capital gains tax in the air, you're going to hear a lot of conservatives and mainstream media folks blather on about how much this kind of thing is going to be so bad for the "middle class" or "even working folk" because everyone is invested in the stock market through 401K plans, etc. But the capital gains tax rate will never apply to that money. More than that, any capital gains from those plans will be, upon withdrawal, taxed at the income tax rate which for most people will be higher than the current 15% capital gains rate. So wealthier people who have direct investments in stocks and whatnot get to pay 15% on their capital gains, while the rest of us in lowly 401K land will likely be paying a higher rate.
With talk of raising the capital gains tax in the air, you're going to hear a lot of conservatives and mainstream media folks blather on about how much this kind of thing is going to be so bad for the "middle class" or "even working folk" because everyone is invested in the stock market through 401K plans, etc. But the capital gains tax rate will never apply to that money. More than that, any capital gains from those plans will be, upon withdrawal, taxed at the income tax rate which for most people will be higher than the current 15% capital gains rate. So wealthier people who have direct investments in stocks and whatnot get to pay 15% on their capital gains, while the rest of us in lowly 401K land will likely be paying a higher rate.
High Comedy
I love Ron Paul supporters.
Outmaneuvered by raucous Ron Paul supporters, Nevada Republican Party leaders abruptly shut down their state convention and now must resume the event to complete a list of 31 delegates to the GOP national convention.
Outnumbered supporters of expected Republican presidential nominee John McCain faced off Saturday against well-organized Paul supporters. A large share of the more than 1,300 state convention delegates enabled Paul supporters to get a rule change positioning them for more national convention delegate slots than expected.
Now I Really Can Just Phone It In
Blogger finally lets one schedule posts to be published in the future.
Test to see if it works.
Test to see if it works.
Republican Hissyfits
These days nothing seems to inspire the Republican hissy fit more than bringing up McCain's 100 years in Iraq comments. A gusher of incoherent "MISREPRESENTINGOUTOFCONTEXT HEDIDNOTMEANWHATYOUSAYHEMEANSBBLUUUUUUUURG" streams out of their mouths. Even now I have no idea what their problem is.
Rather Important News
Dean Baker is right that this is quite the disturbing bit of information.
So when he went to the Clinton administration he changed his policy because of a threat made against his former company?
Shortly before leaving Goldman to head up President Clinton’s National Economic Council, Mr. Rubin says, he met with Richard B. Fisher, the chairman of Morgan Stanley, to discuss the idea of imposing stricter margin requirements on futures trading. Mr. Rubin says the idea died after the Chicago Board of Trade told him “we will make sure Goldman Sachs never trades another future on the C.B.O.T. if this went ahead.”
So when he went to the Clinton administration he changed his policy because of a threat made against his former company?
The Last Word In Sunday Talk
It isn't the most important thing in the world, but when I lived in California I was struck by how much cable news is in tune with the eastern time zone, and how strangely off-kilter the world seemed when watching it 3 hours earlier. CNN's Sunday show with Wolf Blitzer has long billed itself as "the last word in Sunday talk," though it comes on at 8am California time.
McCain Plane
Regarding the NYT story about McCain using his wife's plane for campaign purposes, what took so long? I mean, all of the members of the press's sycophant express have been following him around like needy puppies for months, as commonly repeated reports about McCain "flying coach" floated around.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's “This Week” — Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.); former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.); Reps. Artur Davis (D-Ala.) and Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Texas).
CBS' “Face the Nation” — David Axelrod, campaign advisor for Barack Obama; Howard Wolfson, campaign advisor for Hillary Clinton; Roger Mudd, author of a book on CBS News.
NBC's “Meet the Press” — Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. Panel discussion.
CNN's “Late Edition” — Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.); Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.); Steve Coll, author of a book on the Bin Laden family; James Rubin, a Clinton campaign advisor; Susan Rice, an Obama campaign advisor.
“Fox News Sunday” — Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).
And The War Is Over
The other one.
KABUL, Afghanistan – President Hamid Karzai survived an assassination attempt at a military parade in central Kabul on Sunday, when suspected Taliban insurgents fired mortars and bullets at the dignitaries assembled in the spectator stand.
One person was killed and 11 injured in the incident, Gen. Zaher Azimi, a military spokesman, confirmed soon afterward. Two parliamentarians in a section of the stands not far from the president were seen falling from their chairs on television footage as gunfire rang out. Loud explosions could be heard some distance from the parade ground.
Sunday morning thread
Is there really anyone who lies awake in terror that there might be an anti-gay law missing?
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Econ 101 Through The Gibberish Machine
Megan McCardle is one of life's enduring mysteries. Along with Jonah Goldberg.
...adding that while the term "preference maximization" is occasionally used, it's a rather bad and misleading substitute for "utility maximization."
...adding that while the term "preference maximization" is occasionally used, it's a rather bad and misleading substitute for "utility maximization."
Almost Miss The Friedman Unit Days
While it was always a farce, just a way to kick the can down the road another six months, at least during those years there was some sense that something needed to change in Iraq.
Now it's just static and stagnant. We're there. We're staying. That's it.
Now it's just static and stagnant. We're there. We're staying. That's it.
Parades and Magnets
It's gotta be weird returning from Iraq, from the war back to a country where the war barely exists. Its existence, at least any representation of it, is largely unacknowledged in our media. Sure they mention the war, but there's no confrontation with the reality of it or chronicling of the daily lives (and deaths) of the people who are there.
Iraq'd
Foreclosures:
Not everyone can rely on a press inquiry to fix things.
WASHINGTON — As the home foreclosure crisis sweeps across America, military and financial aid groups say they are hearing from a rising number of troops who say they are falling behind on their mortgage payments and struggling to keep their homes.
"The Army as a whole has seen an increase in soldiers and families seeking assistance for mortgage foreclosures," says Army Lt. Col. Anne Edgecomb, an Army spokeswoman, citing data from branch legal offices trying to advise soldier.
...
Army Staff Sgt. Daniel Escamilla was on his third combat tour in Iraq last year when he had to negotiate from the battlefield with his lender over disputed penalties for the adjustable-rate loan on his four-bedroom home near Fort Carson, Colo. His payment had ballooned from $967 to more than $3,000.
"Not only do I have to worry about staying alive, but now I got to worry about whether or not my family's going to get kicked out of the house," Escamilla says of the long-distance haggling last fall.
...
After a USA TODAY inquiry last week to the parent company, New York-based Lehman Bros., a corporate officer notified Escamilla that all penalties would be removed and his payment adjusted down to its original amount, Escamilla says. "She was sorry for what happened," the soldier says.
Not everyone can rely on a press inquiry to fix things.
Gonna Sleep With The Fishes
Eleanor Clift's if Hillary wins everyone who doesn't support her is going to sleep with the fishes article is pretty inane. Yes different people will have their pecking order in the Washington hierarchy changed depending on which candidate ultimately triumphs, but that's a sort of duh point which is less exciting than describing Clinton as a vengeful bitch.
Facts Are Stupid Things
Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post just told MSNBC viewers about the "wacky superdelegate system that only Democrats could come up with."
Of course the GOP has superdelegates too, though not quite as many.
Of course the GOP has superdelegates too, though not quite as many.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Rules
The comment below was inspired in part by the back and forth which Chief Enforcer Tomasky discusses.
I'm sort of tired of the whole journalist/blogger/citizen journalist discussion. Basically, it's very simple. Once upon a time we lived in the world where most of us, upon discovering something interesting, could tell a few friends and that's about it. We now live in a world where anyone can, potentially, broadcast a bit of information to hundreds of millions of people.
As for the Fowler situation specifically, it seems that if Fowler had merely "leaked" the information no journalist would be fretting about any ethical issues. Okay to be an anonymous source to a responsible journalist, not okay to broadcast yourself.
I'm sort of tired of the whole journalist/blogger/citizen journalist discussion. Basically, it's very simple. Once upon a time we lived in the world where most of us, upon discovering something interesting, could tell a few friends and that's about it. We now live in a world where anyone can, potentially, broadcast a bit of information to hundreds of millions of people.
As for the Fowler situation specifically, it seems that if Fowler had merely "leaked" the information no journalist would be fretting about any ethical issues. Okay to be an anonymous source to a responsible journalist, not okay to broadcast yourself.
Past Due
Sizable jumps in unpaid utility bills it appears.
By Fall we'll have a pretty good idea if we're hitting a really nasty economic period or just a minor bump.
By Fall we'll have a pretty good idea if we're hitting a really nasty economic period or just a minor bump.
And What Does He Say In Private?
I suppose Tweety doesn't exactly have a functioning self-censoring filter, but given all the messed up race and gender stuff he says on the teevee I do wonder what he says aloud in private.
Crying Over Henry Ford
There are certainly reasons to do so, but not the ones I presume Nooners was thinking about.
This is going to be an even dumber election than the last one.
This is going to be an even dumber election than the last one.
Nobody Ever Could Have Predicted
I guess I'm failing in my efforts to turn that, and similar phrases, into enough of a joke that people stop saying it.
RSS
A bunch of people have complained that the RSS feed isn't working. Obviously that means there's a problem, but I don't know what it is. This feed appears to be working to me.
Accessing Culture
I went to see Destroyer last night, and was chatting with the person I went with about how the "kids" today are exposed to and access pop culture. Back in the pre-internet days you had mainstream radio and maybe you had a college radio station which played some other things. Perhaps an alt-weekly told you about stuff. But that was it. Aside from listening to what your friends had, other than going to record shops and buying random things you thought you might like there really wasn't any way to sample what was out there.
Obviously things are different now, with the internet, but still it's a mystery to me just how your typical suburban teen interacts with that universe.
Obviously things are different now, with the internet, but still it's a mystery to me just how your typical suburban teen interacts with that universe.
Bygones
63% think the Iraq war was a bad idea. Still, no harm no foul. We shouldn't fault the people who made that mistake. We should look forward instead, and look to those same people to continue to make wise and intelligent pronouncements about what we should do in the pages of our elite newspapers. That's the Washington way, after all.
And On And On
Still Iraq'd:
The story says this is an effort to calm the situation in Iraq. Perhaps it's that, too, but it's obviously not just that.
Under pressure from Iraqi government troops and the American military, Moktada al-Sadr called on his followers to stop the bloodshed, unite with all Iraqis and focus their firepower on driving out the “occupation forces,” meaning the United States military and its foreign allies.
...
In the statement Mr. Sadr, who is believed to be in Iran, issued eight edicts in an effort to open the way for a negotiation with the Iraqi government, but also to shore up his own support.
He instructed his followers to “to wage open war against the Americans” but forbade them from “raising a hand against another Iraqi citizen.” He also urged the Iraqi Army and Iraqi police to stop cooperating with the Americans, and he asked the government to purge the militias within the ranks of the police and the army. He said he would oppose any American military bases in Iraq.
He also issued a “final warning” to the Iraqi government to end its crackdown or face an “open war until liberation.”
The story says this is an effort to calm the situation in Iraq. Perhaps it's that, too, but it's obviously not just that.
And The Dream Is Over
Personal loan guarantees. Not so smart.
After months of wrangling with lenders over huge debts accumulated during the housing boom, prominent Sacramento-area home builder John D. Reynen filed Wednesday for personal bankruptcy protection.
Reynen, co-founder of Reynen & Bardis Communities, took the action to prevent San Francisco-based Bank of the West from seizing his house and other personal assets for a $26 million debt owed by his company, said Michele McCormick, spokeswoman for the builder.
...
On Wednesday, McCormick characterized Reynen's personal bankruptcy filing as a necessity that allows the company to continue its restructuring efforts with its lenders. She said all the firm's creditors have agreed to equal shares of Reynen's personal assets as a condition of trying to work out a financial solution to his company's debts.
"However, the fly in the ointment is the Bank of the West action to personally take attachment to the personal assets of John Reynen," McCormick said.
In court filings, the bank asserts that John Reynen and company co-founder Christo Bardis personally guaranteed more than $750 million in loans to various lenders and have failed to pay them. That means lenders have the right to seize their personal property.
...
Reynen's bankruptcy court filing estimates the number of creditors at 1,000 to 5,000 and puts his personal assets at between $50 million and $100 million. It estimates his liabilities between $500 million and $1 billion.
State Budgets
States are often pretty much powerless during downturns, given various ways in which there are constraints on their ability to borrow.
The finances of many states have deteriorated so badly that they appear to be in a recession, regardless of whether that's true for the nation as a whole, a survey of all 50 state fiscal directors concludes.
The situation looks even worse for the fiscal year that begins July 1 in most states.
...
The situation is grim in Delaware, with a $69 million gap this year, and bleak in California, with a projected $16 billion budget shortfall over the next two years, the report said. Florida does not expect a rapid turnaround in revenue because of the prolonged real estate slump there.
By mid-April, 16 states and Puerto Rico were reporting shortfalls in their current budgets as the revenue those budgets were built on -- typically, taxes -- fell short of estimates. That's double the number of states reporting a deficit six months ago.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Journalism!
Newsweek!
President Bush's lackadaisacal response to the Hurricane Katrina crisis is pretty much a truism by now. But John McCain's cameo role in the mess may soon make it into the highlight reel as well.
As the deadly storm system moved ashore almost three years ago, sending fatal floods through New Orleans and the Gulf Coast, Bush was in Phoenix, on a tour aimed at boosting participation in what was then the administration's new Medicare prescription-drug plan. McCain had opposed the bill, but showed up to meet Bush at the airport anyway, along with other Arizona lawmakers. It was Aug. 29, McCain's 69th birthday, and on the tarmac, Bush presented his old political rival with a cake. The two posed, holding the cake up for cameras, and within seconds, went their separate ways. The cake, melting in the 110-degree Arizona heat, was left behind, uneaten.
...
Yet on the issue of New Orleans, it's still unclear how different McCain and Bush actually are. Speaking about Katrina, McCain, like many other Republicans, has trashed the administration's handling of the storm and has vowed to prevent similar catastrophes. "We can never let anything like that happen again," McCain told reporters on board his Straight Talk Express earlier this week. Still, the senator, who has visited the Lower Ninth Ward twice since the storm, has yet to tread into the far trickier debate over what to do about New Orleans now, a fight that has dragged on and on with little progress since the waters washed part of the city away.
The senator won't present his own plans for recovery, at least not today. Asked earlier this week if he thought the Lower Ninth Ward should be rebuilt, McCain shrugged, considering the question for several seconds. "I really don't know," he finally said. "That's why I am going … We need to go back to have a conversation about what to do: rebuild it, tear it down, you know, whatever it is."
Not Gonna Air
Unsurprisingly, the ad that aired on a continuous loop on MSNBC for free will not actually ever run in a paid spot. No worries though, I'm sure it'll get another 48 hours or so of free airtime on cable news.
...now it IS going to air. On Monday. Or not, depending on whether cable news spends 4 more days on this important subject.
...now it IS going to air. On Monday. Or not, depending on whether cable news spends 4 more days on this important subject.
Deep Thought
How many hours of free advertising will MSNBC provide by playing an ad that isn't playing in any other media, except perhaps for free on Fox, CNN, and one of my local news stations this morning?
Ouch
CNBC says new home sales down 8.5%, to 5256K. 11 month supply of inventory, highest since 1981. Median price down 13.3%.
....even worse than it first sounded, as the previous month was revised downwards.
....even worse than it first sounded, as the previous month was revised downwards.
New single-family U.S. home sales fell by an unexpectedly steep 8.5 percent in March and the median sales prices versus a year ago dropped by the largest amount since 1970, a government report showed.
The pace of sales slowed to an annual rate of 526,000 last month, the weakest rate since October 1991, the Commerce Department said.
This follows a downwardly revised 575,000 in February and delivered more grim news to the troubled housing sector.
Republican Concern Trolls
In the credit where credit is due file, it appears the Blue Dogs aren't backing down on FISA/immunity. I love the Republican concern trolling:
Because "one House Republican leadership aide"'s prime concern is the electoral fortunes of Democrats.
“If they were smart, all of the Blue Dogs would sign it,” said one House Republican leadership aide. “This petition shows separation from Speaker [Pelosi] who’s toxic in their districts and would be the right thing for our national security.”
"I urge the 21 Blue Dog Democrats who have called on Speaker Pelosi to schedule the Senate-passed bill to sign the discharge petition so we can give our intelligence officials every tool they need to protect us," said House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio.).
Because "one House Republican leadership aide"'s prime concern is the electoral fortunes of Democrats.
Lack Expertise
Those silly Iraqis, if only they knew how to tie their shoes.
I do wish reporters would apply a bit more critical thinking to what "U.S. officials" tell them, both given their track record and the often utterly idiotic things they say.
Along with the $48 billion appropriated by Congress for reconstruction since 2003, Iraqis have budgeted $50.6 billion and international donors have pledged $15.8 billion. Though Iraqis have budgeted the money, they have a poor record of actually spending it. U.S. officials say that is largely because they lack expertise in budgeting and financial management.
I do wish reporters would apply a bit more critical thinking to what "U.S. officials" tell them, both given their track record and the often utterly idiotic things they say.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
And some better news.
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a two-month low, a sign some companies have put firing plans on hold.
Initial jobless claims decreased by 33,000 to 342,000 in the week ended April 19, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast a gain of 3,000. The number of people staying on benefit rolls declined to 2.934 million from close to a four-year high of 2.999 million the week earlier.
First Step
I've been thinking about Devilstower's call for reducing gas consumption. Personal conservation isn't a substitute for good public policy, though obviously it can be a good complement. Still the fact remains that for most people significantly or even marginally reducing automobile usage isn't all that realistic given how so much of this country is organized.
But the only way most people are going to be able to reduce their driving is if they move to a place where they are less automobile dependent. With annual cost of owning and operating a vehicle up over $6000, being able to reduce the ratio of cars/people in a household results in a significant cost savings. People tend to see one car per driving age person as a necessity, but it doesn't have to be. Not everywhere, anyway.
Our decision to become car-free was a financial one, not a political statement or done for environmental reasons. It was a big expense for something we didn't really need or use all that often. Increasingly I don't think I'd get a car even if cost wasn't an issue, though a change in life circumstances of some sort could necessitate it of course.
But the only way most people are going to be able to reduce their driving is if they move to a place where they are less automobile dependent. With annual cost of owning and operating a vehicle up over $6000, being able to reduce the ratio of cars/people in a household results in a significant cost savings. People tend to see one car per driving age person as a necessity, but it doesn't have to be. Not everywhere, anyway.
Our decision to become car-free was a financial one, not a political statement or done for environmental reasons. It was a big expense for something we didn't really need or use all that often. Increasingly I don't think I'd get a car even if cost wasn't an issue, though a change in life circumstances of some sort could necessitate it of course.
Al Gore Is So Fat
AND HE'S SOOOOOOO WRONG ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING!@!$$$$@
McCALL -- Near-record snowfall and low spring temperatures are creating ideal conditions at Brundage Mountain Resort. Resort officials announced today that they will be open for a third bonus weekend in May.
Overnight Anti-Elitism
In order to inoculate this blog against charges of elitism I hereby present a Judas Priest video. I'm sure Atrios appreciates it.
(Could you believe Rob Halford turned out to be gay? With all that leather? Nobody could have predicted it.)
(Could you believe Rob Halford turned out to be gay? With all that leather? Nobody could have predicted it.)
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
12.7%
I'm not exactly an optimist on this issue, but even I can't see 12.7% of homeowners experiencing foreclosure.
But if they do, home prices are going to fall a lot more than 15% over the next 2 years.
But if they do, home prices are going to fall a lot more than 15% over the next 2 years.
Deep Thought
I can remember when the wise old men of Washington weren't actually all that old, when David Gergen was a strapping young lad of 50.
Deep Thought
I dream of the day when the generations of people who see every election as an echo of '68 or '72 put down their punditry pens for good.
Modern Parenting
All quite the mystery to me.
Anyway, fine with me if people want to be helicopter parents. Not fine with me that there's been a racheting up of social pressure so that it's expected that everybody is one.
Anyway, fine with me if people want to be helicopter parents. Not fine with me that there's been a racheting up of social pressure so that it's expected that everybody is one.
The Next Six Months
Some Republican or conservative group runs a dumb ad.
John McCain nobly distances himself from it.
Cable news spends all day talking about it and showing it for free.
Rinse. Repeat.
John McCain nobly distances himself from it.
Cable news spends all day talking about it and showing it for free.
Rinse. Repeat.
Food
The idea of actual serious food shortages in the developed world is hard to fathom, but this sounds a little ominous.
Rye flour stocks have been depleted in the United States, and by June or July there will be no more U.S. rye flour to purchase, said Lee Sanders, senior vice president for government relations and public affairs at the American Bakers Association.
...
For bakers, rye grain is not the only supply stock that is declining. In the past the market has typically had a three-month surplus of wheat stocks to serve as a cushion against supply interruptions, but now the surplus is down to less than 27 days worth of wheat, Sanders said.
God Hates Shrimp
Just saw a report on CNN about how our State Department might be a wee bit annoyed at forced labor in the shrimp industry in countries like Thailand. It's possible some industries are more amenable to this kind of thing, and it's also possible that human rights groups will focus on particular items as a way of focusing attention, but more generally if we trade with countries with shitty human rights and labor laws, this is in the "to be expected" column.
And While We're Talking Economics
I made a handy little graph to explain what's happening to oil prices. Ditto gas.
...since the picture isn't worth quite a thousand words, apparently... Basically over some range of the supply curve (marked S), firms are willing to increase the quantity supplied without charging much more. That's the flat horizontal section of the upward sloping curve. More oil can be easily pumped out of existing fields, or gasoline refineries are running below capacity. Eventually you get to a quantity where no more oil can be pumped out of the fields, or gasoline refineries are at capacity. Then increases in demand (rightward shifts in the demand curve marked D), lead to sharp increases in price without any noticeable increase in the amount of oil or gas supplied.
Over time, perhaps, more oil fields can be brought online (though probably at higher cost/barrel than existing ones) and more gasoline refineries can be built. But over a relatively short time horizon, once you hit capacity the sky is the limit on the price.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEE
...since the picture isn't worth quite a thousand words, apparently... Basically over some range of the supply curve (marked S), firms are willing to increase the quantity supplied without charging much more. That's the flat horizontal section of the upward sloping curve. More oil can be easily pumped out of existing fields, or gasoline refineries are running below capacity. Eventually you get to a quantity where no more oil can be pumped out of the fields, or gasoline refineries are at capacity. Then increases in demand (rightward shifts in the demand curve marked D), lead to sharp increases in price without any noticeable increase in the amount of oil or gas supplied.
Over time, perhaps, more oil fields can be brought online (though probably at higher cost/barrel than existing ones) and more gasoline refineries can be built. But over a relatively short time horizon, once you hit capacity the sky is the limit on the price.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEE
Seeds Of Its Own Destruction
In the simple adverse selection with asymmetric information model of insurance markets, the possibility exists that the market simply implodes. And if there is a market, low risk (low cost) people are underinsured and high risk people pay a lot. Essentially what we've been saying over the past few years is low end insurance getting shittier and shitter and high end insurance getting costlier and costlier. We may be hitting the point where low end insurance disappears altogether.
Not Really The Status Quo
In the world of media narratives, how the press will talk about the primary campaign, it's true we're at the status quo. But in terms of who is actually going to win this thing, last night was actually a bad night for Clinton. Somehow she has to win a lot of delegates, and opportunities to do so lessen with each contest.
Lucky Duckies
Or maybe not.
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- The looming wave of bankruptcies is unlikely to be kind to bondholders. And they have only themselves to blame.
Rather than receiving the historical average recovery of 42 cents on the dollar in a default, owners of a third of high- yield, high-risk bonds rated B+ or lower may get no more than 10 cents, according to New York-based Fitch Ratings. About 22 percent are likely to get 11 cents to 30 cents.
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD (AFP) — A suicide car bomb and roadside bombings against have killed five US troops, including three marines, the American military announced on Tuesday.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
More Thread
Locally in races most of you don't care about, there's some good stuff, bad stuff, and weird stuff going on.
Results
CNN seems to be getting them out the fastest.
...adding that while I don't have any idea how good the exit poll data is, given what's come in and what hasn't (philly burbs) it seems a bit premature for the networks to call it.
...adding that while I don't have any idea how good the exit poll data is, given what's come in and what hasn't (philly burbs) it seems a bit premature for the networks to call it.
Just For Fun
Drudge claims early exit polls of 52 C/48 O. If the actual vote totals aren't precisely this, then you know somebody stole it.
Also, now Clinton just has to beat this spread to make it a big win.
Or something.
I don't really know how this stuff works.
...and the National Review says 52 O, 47 C.
Atrios says Kodos 95, Gravel 5.
Also, now Clinton just has to beat this spread to make it a big win.
Or something.
I don't really know how this stuff works.
...and the National Review says 52 O, 47 C.
Atrios says Kodos 95, Gravel 5.
Ballots
Regarding this, it's standard practice for various campaign people to distribute "sample ballots" which are really just a way of telling you who to vote for. They are somewhat deceptive for people who haven't seen them before, but they're just standard practice here. The actual machine ballot lets you choose. There's no conspiracy of Clintonian nefariousness, just the way things are done here.
Voting Problems
One of my personal pet peeves is the fact that legitimate concerns about voting problems and systems tend to be drowned out by people freaking out about perfectly normal and minor election day snafus. You know, having a couple of busted machines or a few misplaced or unrecorded voter registrations isn't evidence of some grand conspiracy to deprive the one true candidate of a victory.
That's not to say that minor snafus or improper election day activities shouldn't be reported, get attention, and hopefully be fixed. It's just that they aren't always evidence of corruption or a sign that our democracy is hopelessly broken.
That's not to say that minor snafus or improper election day activities shouldn't be reported, get attention, and hopefully be fixed. It's just that they aren't always evidence of corruption or a sign that our democracy is hopelessly broken.
PA Delegates
Heavily Democratic places get more delegates.
I'm in the 2nd.
...here's a full district delegate breakdown for real geeks (.pdf).
Fifty-five will be awarded based on the statewide vote, which should be available Tuesday night. Another 103 delegates will be awarded based on the vote in individual congressional districts. All delegates will be awarded proportionally, as they are in every Democratic contest.
The distribution of delegates among congressional districts raises the possibility that one candidate could win the statewide vote and the other could win more delegates, but the statewide vote would have to be very close.
The delegates are weighted heavily toward urban and suburban areas because Pennsylvania, like other states, apportions congressional district delegates based on Democratic voting strength in the most recent presidential and gubernatorial elections.
Under the formula, the 2nd Congressional District, which includes part of Philadelphia, has nine delegates at stake, more than any other district. The 9th Congressional District in the south central part of the state has the fewest, with three delegates at stake.
I'm in the 2nd.
...here's a full district delegate breakdown for real geeks (.pdf).
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Normally we reserve this for record low approval ratings, but I think we'll make an exception for most hated preznit evah.
That's poorly written, suggesting FDR was unpopular. It's just about the modern polling era.
This administration really has to get out of office. You have no idea about the creepy places on the internets I have to go to satisfy Holden's insatiable lust for ponies.
WASHINGTON — President Bush has set a record he'd presumably prefer to avoid: the highest disapproval rating of any president in the 70-year history of the Gallup Poll.
In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday, 28% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing; 69% disapprove. The approval rating matches the low point of his presidency, and the disapproval sets a new high for any president since Franklin Roosevelt.
The previous record of 67% was reached by Harry Truman in January 1952, when the United States was enmeshed in the Korean War.
That's poorly written, suggesting FDR was unpopular. It's just about the modern polling era.
This administration really has to get out of office. You have no idea about the creepy places on the internets I have to go to satisfy Holden's insatiable lust for ponies.
Sucky Political Journalists Loved Sucky Debate
It is fascinating that they keep writing out the indictment of their own profession. Yes, we know, you love obsessing about trivial bullshit that no one cares about and that doesn't affect the lives of actual people.
Yes good journalists exist, but the ones who do campaign coverage mostly suck. And they're the public face of journalism to most people, because they go on the teevee and other conventional wisdom generating machine outlets.
Yes good journalists exist, but the ones who do campaign coverage mostly suck. And they're the public face of journalism to most people, because they go on the teevee and other conventional wisdom generating machine outlets.
Voted
Polling place wasn't crowded at all, though there's a lot of action outside. In a one party town, contested local primaries attract more poll workers than general elections do.
Off To Vote
Time for my 3 block stroll to my polling station.
My only regret is that I didn't register as a Republican so I could vote for Ron Paul.
My only regret is that I didn't register as a Republican so I could vote for Ron Paul.
Drink Liberally!
Anyone showing up to town for campaign-related reasons should feel free to stop by Tangier, at 18th and Lombard, 6-? this evening.
Priorities
I've been reading with some fascination the various intergenerational feminist back and forth going on. I'm not sure how valid that description is for the country generally (aside from the general trend of older voters siding more with Clinton), but it has played out in the media to some extent that way.
I found this bit to be telling:
One of the more frustrating, futile, and self-aggrandizing rhetorical games is to tell people what their priorities should be. Nick Kristof has played this game in the past, chastising womens' rights groups for not focusing their limited resources on whatever his pet cause of the week happens to be. It's also global warming concern troll Bjorn Lomborg's trick, saying that instead of focusing resources on combating global warming we should use them for a bunch of other things that aren't going to happen. There's always a more important cause, a more deserving subject, a more downtrodden person. It's essentially a way of undermining all good works while building up the critic as More Serious And Enlightened Than Thou.
But people have different priorities. And to the extent people become involved in issues or causes, they have different skill sets, different abilities, different sets of knowledge. They have different things they can bring to the table. Telling people they should be fretting about the women of Afghanistan instead of focusing on eating disorders is, to put it bluntly, just stupid. More than that, it achieves absolutely nothing.
I found this bit to be telling:
At a recent pre-panel reception, I immediately connected with a philosophy professor about the difficulties and joys of teaching feminist theorist Judith Butler. But the professor's mood took a 180-degree turn when the issue of eating disorders came up. "I'm so sick of hearing young feminists talk about fashion and body image and work/family balance," she said, rolling her eyes like an adolescent, though she looked to be about 50. "What about the women in Afghanistan!?"
She even approached one of the other panelists, 42-year-old journalist Kristal Brent Zook, with a plea to shut down any conversation about these "frivolous" issues if they should come up during the panel (i.e., shut down me, the silly author of a book on body image). Zook had my back, of course. She responded to the professor, "Actually the entire goal of this panel is to create intergenerational dialogue where all voices are heard. It's not my job to decide what's important to Courtney or any other feminist. It's my job to express my own issues and listen openly to others."
One of the more frustrating, futile, and self-aggrandizing rhetorical games is to tell people what their priorities should be. Nick Kristof has played this game in the past, chastising womens' rights groups for not focusing their limited resources on whatever his pet cause of the week happens to be. It's also global warming concern troll Bjorn Lomborg's trick, saying that instead of focusing resources on combating global warming we should use them for a bunch of other things that aren't going to happen. There's always a more important cause, a more deserving subject, a more downtrodden person. It's essentially a way of undermining all good works while building up the critic as More Serious And Enlightened Than Thou.
But people have different priorities. And to the extent people become involved in issues or causes, they have different skill sets, different abilities, different sets of knowledge. They have different things they can bring to the table. Telling people they should be fretting about the women of Afghanistan instead of focusing on eating disorders is, to put it bluntly, just stupid. More than that, it achieves absolutely nothing.
I Get to Vote
Two campaigns, neither especially aimed at getting my vote. I'm sensible enough to know that neither of them should have been aiming their campaigns at me, but the point is both candidates have said and done plenty which have ticked me off over the past several months. I'll vote for Obama today, though there was certainly a period when I would have likely gone the other way.
Basic Services
Over 5 years later...
This war was always a stupid idea, but quite often you feel like they weren't even trying to do it right. Of course they figured they'd just off the government and a libertarian paradise would emerge.
BAGHDAD — Even as American and Iraqi troops are fighting to establish control of the Sadr City section of this capital, the Iraqi government’s program to restore basic services like electricity, sewage and trash collection is lagging, jeopardizing the effort to win over the area’s wary residents.
For weeks, there have been reports that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is preparing to move ahead with a multimillion-dollar program to rebuild the southern swath of Sadr City, which is currently occupied by Iraqi and American troops.
But almost a month after American and Iraqi forces pushed into the area, there are no signs of reconstruction. Instead, the streets are filled with mounds of trash and bubbling pools of sewage. Many neighborhoods are still without electricity, and many residents are too afraid to brave the cross-fire to seek medical care. Iraqi public works officials, apparently fearful of the fighting, rarely seem to show up at work, and the Iraqi government insists the area is not safe enough for repairs to begin.
This war was always a stupid idea, but quite often you feel like they weren't even trying to do it right. Of course they figured they'd just off the government and a libertarian paradise would emerge.
Less Gas
Interesting:
U.S. drivers are doing something they haven’t done for nearly two decades — consume less gasoline.
Gas consumption so far this year is down about 0.2 percent compared to last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. The federal agency is predicting that gasoline demand will be down 0.4 percent this summer and 0.3 percent for the year.
That may not sound like much, but it would be the first time since 1991 that there’s been a decline in annual gas consumption. And it would be only the eighth year since 1951 in which demand for gasoline has declined.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Pain
Sometimes it's a bit too easy to scan the internets for video to make fun of. Phil Collins! HA HA!
And then you check the comments.
And then you check the comments.
This was the song I played at my wife's funeral a month ago. She has left me a widower at 36 and our daughter Molly, 13.
8.4%
Not so shabby.
Big Shitpile needs to be fed.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroupon Monday will sell $6 billion in non-cumulative perpetual preferred shares, said International Financing Review, a Thomson Reuters publication.
The shares are expected to pay a fixed 8.4 percent dividend for 10 years and pay a floating rate after that.
Banks this year have been increasing their issuance of preferred shares, which improve their "Tier 1" capital ratios, a measure of their ability to cover losses.
Big Shitpile needs to be fed.
Fairly Quiet in Philly
Took my daily walk to make sure my house isn't being occupied by squatters. Campaign materials everywhere, but only a couple of corners were being worked by volunteers (Obama in this case).
And tomorrow we vote. And then on to the next states...
And tomorrow we vote. And then on to the next states...
Little Ricky
The idea that conservatives would fail to support McCain was always a bit silly, but I thought some of the ones who had explicitly rejected him would at least hold out a little longer. Santorum hearts McCain!
Ali and Rick
I don't know why CNN is forcing Ali and Rick to stand outside the art museum on a cloudy windy day. They aren't even using good camera angles to make use of what could be a nice backdrop.
LEAVE PHILADELPHIA ALOOOOOOOOOONE
Visual aids: Art Museum area.
Ali:
Rick:
LEAVE PHILADELPHIA ALOOOOOOOOOONE
Visual aids: Art Museum area.
Ali:
Rick:
Times Change
This somewhat anecdotal stuff rankles my inner social scientist, but perhaps things are changing a bit.
Economists say home prices are no where near hitting bottom. But even in regions that have taken a beating, some neighborhoods remain practically unscathed. And there's a pattern emerging as to which neighborhoods those are.
The ones with short commutes are fairing better than places with long drives into the city. Some analysts see a pause in what's long been inexorable—urban sprawl.
...
Realtor Danilo Bogdanovic surveyed two rows of neat new brick town homes on Falkner's Lane. "These were selling for about $550,000 at the peak, which was about August 05, and they're selling right now for about $350,000," Bogdanovic said.
"So $200,000 in a year and a half and fifty 50 of this community has been ether foreclosed on or is facing foreclosure."
For residents who work in the city, their commute is around an hour on trouble-free days. But that could extend upward toward two hours very quickly.
...
But construction in town has held steady. Goldberg sees other cities rebounding too, including Baltimore and Philadelphia.
"Philadelphia was loosing downtown housing and in town housing until very recently," Goldberg said. "And now that's the hottest part of their market."
Meaningless Polls
I do think the Pennsylvania polls are pretty much meaningless right now, at least absent more detailed information about geographic sampling, turnouts models, and adjustments for cell phone users.
...adding, what I mean is that they may not be meaningless, but they're meaningless to me without that information. The election result will depend mostly on Philadelphia turnout and results from the Philadelphia suburbs.
...adding, what I mean is that they may not be meaningless, but they're meaningless to me without that information. The election result will depend mostly on Philadelphia turnout and results from the Philadelphia suburbs.
Funny And True
Thers:
It's even worse than that. You don't even have to mention Amanda to get the reaction. Every now and then I get these random emails filled with semi-coherent rage from people who seem to just want me to agree that Amanda is the worst person ever, or something. I'm never quite sure.
Anyway, New Yorkers can go see the she-devil herself this week.
MODUS SUCK-A-RANDI: Mention the name "Amanda Marcotte" and instantly a troll appears to explain her utter, irredeemable, innate evil -- try it, like, the next time you're on the bus or in the shower or burning a flag or otherwise going about your normal routine. It's like "Beetlejuice," but you only need to say it once and it's a lot stupider. See you in the comments, and you know who you are!
It's even worse than that. You don't even have to mention Amanda to get the reaction. Every now and then I get these random emails filled with semi-coherent rage from people who seem to just want me to agree that Amanda is the worst person ever, or something. I'm never quite sure.
Anyway, New Yorkers can go see the she-devil herself this week.
More Straight Talk
As we head towards the general election campaign, we'll be reminded once again that when Democrats propose buying an extra stapler for the office Tim Russert will ask them whose taxes they'll raise to pay for it, while Republicans can just make up numbers and he'll call it mavericky straight talk. Though occasionally news orgs will rise to the occasion.
To help pay for the tax cuts, Holtz-Eakin said he would save $30 billion a year by eliminating so-called ``rifle shot'' provisions. Those include items such as tax breaks for small insurance companies.
A Treasury Department report Holtz-Eakin cited as the source of his estimate states $27 billion could be raised by eliminating narrowly used tax preferences spread over a decade, not a single year.
The Discrepancy
When asked about the discrepancy, Holtz-Eakin replied that McCain would start with those provisions and target others like them to recover $30 billion annually.
Len Burman, director of the Tax Policy Center and a former Clinton administration Treasury official, said that is unrealistic. ``We looked for loopholes when I was there and couldn't even come up with $10 billion a year,'' he said.
Trend
There aren't really any numbers, just anecdotes, to back up the idea that this is actually a trend. Still it's a perfectly sensible thing for many people to do.
Also, there's a pretty big gray area between "don't want to pay" and "can't pay." There are people who are fairly financially sound but who need to move. If the bank won't accept a short sale, they're either stuck or they're going to mail in the keys.
Instead of mailing in their monthly mortgage payment, a growing number of homeowners are sending lenders their keys.
...
The mortgage industry is struggling to estimate how many homes are going into foreclosure because of people who don't want to pay, rather than because of people who can't afford to pay.
...
Real-estate agents are hearing it more often from people who can't sell. Mortgage lenders are reporting getting more jingle mail, and now there are businesses advising homeowners how to walk away.
"Even if someone put 5 to 10 percent down but bought in the Valley during '05 or '06, they are likely upside down now," said Brett Barry of the north Phoenix office of Realty Executives. "I don't advise people to walk away, but how do you convince someone to keep paying when they owe so much more than their home is worth? They can't sell, and their lender isn't going to forgive $100,000 in principal. It's not good."
Investors started the walk-away trend, but it has spread to the typical homeowner.
Also, there's a pretty big gray area between "don't want to pay" and "can't pay." There are people who are fairly financially sound but who need to move. If the bank won't accept a short sale, they're either stuck or they're going to mail in the keys.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Any Functioning Democratic State
What are we then?
Rice used her visit to praise Maliki's choice to take on the militia. Fighting Sadr, who has declared that resistance against U.S. forces is legitimate, is an "internal Iraqi matter," she said.
"But clearly, the prime minister has laid down some ground rules which any functioning democratic state would insist upon, having to do with, you know, arms belonging to the state, not to -- not in private hands," she said. "The current circumstances come out of what I think is a very important and indeed appropriate action that the Iraqi government has taken."
Mighty General Bush Led His Troops On Horseback
We are led by the stupidest fucking people on the planet.
So Smart
The post linked below reminds me of that exciting time before the war. Aside from everything else, the pro-war conservatives and "liberal hawks" - even the milder ones - were just dripping with condescension for us dirty fucking hippies. Ultimately, I think, the Iraq war had to fought Just Because and that Just Because was some deep mystical truth that each war supporter had access to but which dirty fucking hippies could not comprehend.
5 years later they're propping up this Just Because with an ever more complicated web of Truths that only they and very serious people can see.
In other words, barking insane.
5 years later they're propping up this Just Because with an ever more complicated web of Truths that only they and very serious people can see.
In other words, barking insane.
Deep Thought
After his disastrous campaign misstep of putting swiss cheese on a cheese steak, John Kerry won 81% of the vote in Philadelphia.
Frozen
It's nice not having to spend my Sundays looking at open houses anymore. What's interesting is that from what I can tell, of the approximately 5 billion homes we looked at, only a couple have actually sold. The center city Philadelphia market never went completely crazy, but there were a couple years of big appreciation followed by a big rehab/construction boom in which the developers assumed that there would be a couple more years of big appreciation and priced accordingly.
The other issue is that it's difficult to get a loan larger than $417,000, so there's a bit of a discontinuity in what people can afford.
The other issue is that it's difficult to get a loan larger than $417,000, so there's a bit of a discontinuity in what people can afford.
Almost Over
I suppose the CNN bus will decamp from the Art Museum soon. My prediction: a stunning write-in campaign victory for Kodos.
Vote Uretsky
Eschaton officially endorses Josh Uretsky as an Obama delegate representing Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District.
Vote Josh!
Vote Josh!
More Blogger Ethics
Glennzilla adds some additional perspective to the whole independent military analyst sham. Kudos to the NYT for fleshing out the story, as I said, but shame on all of these news outlets for helping to catapult the propaganda all these years.
Electability
One place I decided to try to avoid going was to the land of the "electability" argument. I find these discussions, though admittedly I occasionally get sucked in, to be quite tiresome. First I reject the idea that one should pick a candidate based on some imagined preferences of other voters. And second, there just isn't enough evidence out there to support the idea that either candidate is "stronger." People can have opinions about this, of course, but I don't think there's much of an argument to made either way.
And in this primary election the subtext is to some degree, whether stated or unstated, "Is the country more likely to vote for a woman or a black guy?" I don't know the answer to that and nor does anyone else. Again, people can have opinions, but there really just isn't an argument to made.
Lots of Clinton supporters seem to thin Obama is unelectable, whether because he's African-American, or because he has scary friends, or because Republicans will attack him. Lots of Obama supporters seem to think Clinton is unelectable because she's a woman, or because she has he negatives, or because Republicans will attack her.
But really... the Republicans will attack anyone and it's dumb to base your support on that idea. And none of us, not even David Brooks, can really guess who people will vote for.
And in this primary election the subtext is to some degree, whether stated or unstated, "Is the country more likely to vote for a woman or a black guy?" I don't know the answer to that and nor does anyone else. Again, people can have opinions, but there really just isn't an argument to made.
Lots of Clinton supporters seem to thin Obama is unelectable, whether because he's African-American, or because he has scary friends, or because Republicans will attack him. Lots of Obama supporters seem to think Clinton is unelectable because she's a woman, or because she has he negatives, or because Republicans will attack her.
But really... the Republicans will attack anyone and it's dumb to base your support on that idea. And none of us, not even David Brooks, can really guess who people will vote for.
Blogger Ethics Panel
Yes it's an old joke, but a still relevant one given the constant demands for bloggers to live up to ethics and transparency standards which don't exist, even in theory, anywhere else in the world. Anyone watching the teevee over the past few years knew that this independent military analyst stuff was just another way for the Bush administration to launder information and propaganda to give it more authority. Kudos to the Times for actually doing the hard work and fleshing out the story, but real questions remain about the standards and practices of CNN and other cable networks who used - and probably will continue to use - these people.
Back when blogger ethics was all the rage I was chatting with one reporter who was a bit obsessed about financial transparency, as if the fact that you spout off on the internets means that you have to post your bank statements. Trying to get this reporter to understand that such transparency exists nowhere in the world, I asked what kind of financial disclosures their various op-ed contributors have to make. He paused for a minute and... well, I don't want to say he was lying, but he said something he wanted to be true more than it was true, that such people were "vetted."
Right.
Back when blogger ethics was all the rage I was chatting with one reporter who was a bit obsessed about financial transparency, as if the fact that you spout off on the internets means that you have to post your bank statements. Trying to get this reporter to understand that such transparency exists nowhere in the world, I asked what kind of financial disclosures their various op-ed contributors have to make. He paused for a minute and... well, I don't want to say he was lying, but he said something he wanted to be true more than it was true, that such people were "vetted."
Right.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's "This Week" — Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., and Gov. Ed Rendell, D-Pa.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — David Axelrod, campaign adviser for Barack Obama; Geoff Garin, campaign adviser for Hillary Rodham Clinton.
___
CNN's "Late Edition" — Former presidential candidate Bill Bradley; Gov. Jon Corzine, D-N.J.; Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter; Rep. Chaka Fattah, D-Pa.; Catholic University President David O'Connell; Delia Gallagher, Vatican analyst; Carly Fiorina, adviser to McCain.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Charles Schumer, D-N.Y.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Time For Another Blogger Ethics Panel
Now!
To the public, these men are members of a familiar fraternity, presented tens of thousands of times on television and radio as “military analysts” whose long service has equipped them to give authoritative and unfettered judgments about the most pressing issues of the post-Sept. 11 world.
Hidden behind that appearance of objectivity, though, is a Pentagon information apparatus that has used those analysts in a campaign to generate favorable news coverage of the administration’s wartime performance, an examination by The New York Times has found.
...
Those business relationships are hardly ever disclosed to the viewers, and sometimes not even to the networks themselves. But collectively, the men on the plane and several dozen other military analysts represent more than 150 military contractors either as lobbyists, senior executives, board members or consultants. The companies include defense heavyweights, but also scores of smaller companies, all part of a vast assemblage of contractors scrambling for hundreds of billions in military business generated by the administration’s war on terror. It is a furious competition, one in which inside information and easy access to senior officials are highly prized.
Records and interviews show how the Bush administration has used its control over access and information in an effort to transform the analysts into a kind of media Trojan horse — an instrument intended to shape terrorism coverage from inside the major TV and radio networks.
...
In turn, members of this group have echoed administration talking points, sometimes even when they suspected the information was false or inflated. Some analysts acknowledge they suppressed doubts because they feared jeopardizing their access.
A few expressed regret for participating in what they regarded as an effort to dupe the American public with propaganda dressed as independent military analysis.
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