I actually don't agree that McCain is somehow largely just a victim of circumstances. Leaving aside very recent history, he chose to be a Bush loving conservative instead of Mr. Bipartisan McMaverick or otherwise running against Bush. By Fall of 2005, it didn't take a genius to see that people were really getting a bit fed up with this bunch of clowns. If it wasn't clear then, it became clear in the November '06 election. If it wasn't clear then, it became clear after Bush was sub-40 in the polls for like 3000 months straight. Yes I know that McCain had to win the Republican primary, but even after that he didn't make much effort to pivot. And by that time even Republicans were beginning to hate Bush!