On a related note, I have been wondering recently, as Obama climbs in the polls, if the conventional wisdom after the election might be that Rove-style smear politics are less effective these days.
I think a better term is something like "cable news smear politics." For that stuff to work well, you basically have to get the cable news bobbleheads talking about it nonstop for days and weeks. I think it's been less effective this time around because the McCain campaign has been awful for a variety of reasons, and because important events like the financial crisis force the bobbleheads to occasionally go off message and talk about other things. Too many shiny soccer balls for them to chase after.