Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Placeholder?
AP says Paterson is now thinking of a placeholder for Clinton's seat, with the permanent Clinton replacement having to run and win a competitive race in 2010. I don't care much how we get there, but I do want that primary in 2010.
Appointing her would be a nice way to reward Judith Kaye's yeowoman efforts to improve the court system in NY.
Appointing her would be a nice way to reward Judith Kaye's yeowoman efforts to improve the court system in NY.
They Like Him, They Really Like Him
I really am quite fascinating by Obama's polling.
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A national poll suggests that three-quarters of the public thinks President-elect Barack Obama is a strong and decisive leader, the highest marks for a president-elect on that characteristic in nearly three decades.
Seventy-six percent of Americans questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday said Obama is a strong and decisive leader.
"That's the best number an incoming president has gotten on that dimension since Ronald Reagan took office in 1981," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "The public's rating of his leadership skills is already as high as George W. Bush's was after 9/11 and easily beats the numbers that both Bush and Bill Clinton got at the start of their first terms in office."
Perhaps Not Quite Understanding The Concept
Or, maybe he does?
- North Carolina governor Mike Easley (left) complains that newspapers -- particularly the News & Observer and Charlotte Observer -- haven't been very nice to him. "My job is to be nice to other people, and their job is to be nice to me. Just because they're not doing theirs doesn't mean I shouldn't do mine," he tells the News & Record.
Resources
And the fun continues.
- MOSCOW — Negotiations over gas prices between Russia and Ukraine unraveled Wednesday and executives at Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, said they were preparing to halt supplies early Thursday morning. If they do, customers in Western Europe will see shortages as the same pipelines in Ukraine are used for export and internal distribution. It is a problem that has bedeviled Europe’s energy supplies from Russia for years. How quickly Western Europe would feel a shortage of natural gas was unclear, and would depend on the scale and duration of any Russian embargo of Ukraine. The fuel isused for heating and to generate electricity, and winter is the period of peak demand.
Evil
Poor, poor, Abu G. Just what did he do wrong?
I'm actually not even entirely sure why I feel extra disgust for the people who rationalized evil instead of the ones who ordered and committed it.
I'm actually not even entirely sure why I feel extra disgust for the people who rationalized evil instead of the ones who ordered and committed it.
Not Legal Tender
Obviously paying people with a bunch of IOUs they can't actually spend is going to hasten the economy's demise. But, hey, Arnie's in charge!
- The bad news is that next in line to get IOUs instead of cash would be Californians awaiting state income tax refunds and companies that do business with the state. In a letter to state agencies, Chiang said his office was projecting the state would run out of cash around the beginning of March. Without a deficit-closing deal between legislators and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Chiang said, his office "has no choice but to pursue the deferral of potentially billions of dollars in payments and/or the issuance of individual registered warrants, commonly referred to as IOUs."
Malls... With Housing
I think residential/office infill in urban malls, while not my idea of urban paradise, is probably a pretty good idea (and obviously has already been done in places). This kind of infill development is unlikely to create aesthetically pleasing little urban neighborhoods, but it will provide people with both walkability and good highway access!
Wednesday Is New Jobless Day
This week, anyway. It's good news in that the news isn't quite as horrible as it has been, but it's still horrible. And continuing claims rose.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says the number of newly laid off workers signing up for unemployment benefits fell sharply last week. However, those continuing to draw aid climbed to the highest level since 1982.
The Labor Department reports that first-time applications filed for jobless benefits dropped by 94,000 to 492,000 for the week ending Dec. 27. The decline partly reflected seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the Christmas holiday and was a greater drop than analysts expected.
More Thread
by Molly I.
Use this to discuss tonight's plans, resolutions, or hopes for next year.
And make sure to note Thers's coinage: "joie de fuck you"!
Use this to discuss tonight's plans, resolutions, or hopes for next year.
And make sure to note Thers's coinage: "joie de fuck you"!
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Jar Jar is Better Than Jaw Jaw
Go vote in the Only Web-Blog Awards That Matter.
ALSO: What is the functional difference between Marty Peretz and T. Herman Zweibel?
MORE. Phila requests this video. You can see where he's coming from.
ALSO: What is the functional difference between Marty Peretz and T. Herman Zweibel?
MORE. Phila requests this video. You can see where he's coming from.
Female Genital Mutilation
But Christopher Hitchens has been telling me that the Kurds are the good guys.
Free Fall
I've not exactly been Mr. Positive on the economy, but I'm starting to enter Dr. Doom territory.
Get a house in Detroit, cheap! Trade your 6-year-old SUV for one, maybe.
Home values in 20 large metropolitan areas across the country dropped at a record pace in October as the fallout from the financial collapse reverberated through the housing market, according to data released Tuesday.
The price of single-family homes fell 18 percent in October from a year earlier, according to the closely watched Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller Housing Index. All 20 cities reported annual price declines in October; prices in 14 of the 20 metropolitan areas surveyed fell at a record rate as the financial crisis reached a critical point.
...
Fourteen of the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller survey posted double-digit declines for the year. The relative winner was Dallas, which had the smallest yearly decline, of 3 percent. The value of a single-family house in Detroit, which has been pummeled by closing plants and the implosion of the auto industry, was less in October than it was in October 1998.
Get a house in Detroit, cheap! Trade your 6-year-old SUV for one, maybe.
I Didn't See Him As Legitimate
But I was sad to discover that opinion was mostly limited to the denizens of "crazy" corners of the internet. Bush began office with high approval and a media united around the idea that the country must be "healed" or whatever their usual nonsense is.
New Problems
Things get interesting.
(via cr)
With nearly one in six homes worth less than the mortgage owed on it, according to Moody’s Economy.com, divorce lawyers and financial advisers around the country say the logistics of divorce have been turned around. “We used to fight about who gets to keep the house,” said Gary Nickelson, president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “Now we fight about who gets stuck with the dead cow.”
As a result, divorce has become more complicated and often more expensive, with lower prospects for money on the other side. Some divorce lawyers say that business has slowed or that clients are deciding to stay together because there are no assets left to help them start over.
(via cr)
Monday, December 29, 2008
Perfect Timing
Well, not really.
At issue are limits on the number of cotton trousers, golf shirts, babies' socks and more than 30 other textile products that China can export to the United States. The quotas expire at the end of this year, and, under a World Trade Organization agreement, the U.S. government can't reimpose restrictions on Chinese textiles.
The industry is worried that what happened in 2005, when similar safeguards were lifted temporarily, will happen again in 2009.
China flooded the U.S. market in 2005, with a more than 1,500 percent increase in cotton trousers alone. While that drove down the prices of those products for American consumers, U.S. textile companies lost about 55,000 jobs that year, more than 8 percent of the industry's work force, trade officials say.
Department Of Ideas Which Make No Sense
I really have no idea why some people get hooked on this idea that a mileage tax, with some sort of costly technological implementation, is a good idea. Just increase the damn gas tax. It's already roughly a mileage tax, with the added benefit that it mildly encourages people to drive more fuel efficient cars, which is a good thing from every perspective other than the quantity of gas tax revenues. But if gas tax revenues aren't high enough, just raise the rate.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
While the fact that virginity pledges and abstinence-only sex "ed" don't stop teens from having sex is unsurprising, I doubt that even proponents are particularly surprised. They aren't interested in abstinence, really, they're interested in making sure "bad girls" get punished for having sex by being subject to the appropriate consequences. So it actually works as designed.
SUPERTRANSIT
Having knocked the Muni system map and the annoying incompatibility with BART's fare system, let me say that San Francisco's public transit system really is quite awesome. The light rail system is great, and both it and the buses/trackless trolleys run with great frequency. Good way to get around, and good way to see the city.
Our
Without bothering to take issue with any of Robert "not the son of Paul" Samuelson's specific points, I find it pretty funny that he takes a bunch of things which he thinks that everyone, or at least everyone smart like him, believed but which are apparently wrong. But, you know, it isn't really his fault because everyone smart thought just like he did, otherwise they were idiots or dirty fucking hippies or whatever.
Kennedy
While I've taken the "bad idea" position, I don't really think the fate of the nation really rests on whether or not Caroline Kennedy gets Clinton's Senate seat. But reading around the internets I find that there's a small but nontrivial contingent of people who feel very strongly that she should get the seat and it's something that's very important to them. I find this to be rather weird.
Wipeout
I guess this how we went from NO MORE BAILOUTS to LET'S BAILOUT ALL THE RICH PEOPLE in about 24 hours.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's (Other OTC:LEHMQ.PK - News) emergency bankruptcy filing wiped out as much as $75 billion of potential value for creditors, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing an analysis by the bank's restructuring advisers.
A more planned and orderly filing would have allowed Lehman to sell some assets outside of bankruptcy court protection and would have given it time to unwind derivatives positions, according to the analysis by Alvarez & Marsal.
Opportunities
Funny.
- On a recent morning, a 27-year-old skateboarder who goes by the name Josh Peacock peered into a swimming pool in Fresno, Calif., emptied by his own hands — and the foreclosure crisis — and flashed a smile as wide as a half-pipe. “We have more pools than we know what to do with,” said Mr. Peacock, who lives in Fresno, the Central Valley city where thousands of homes, many with pools behind them, are in foreclosure. “I can’t even keep track of them all anymore.” Across the nation, the ultimate symbol of suburban success has become one more reminder of the economic meltdown, with builders going under, pools going to seed and skaters finding a surplus of deserted pools in which to perfect their acrobatic aerials.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
How Strange
It seems my local sports team has, once again, fallen bass ackwards into a playoff slot.
TOD
Wandering around San Francisco, one of those places where no one wants to live because it's too expensive, I'm reminded yet again how absurd it is that in so many places it's illegal to build anything resembling like how much of San Francisco is laid out, which is not so different from Philadelphia really (street grid, attached 2-3 story homes). And so when people get crazy ideas about building around train stations they needed to change zoning.
Don't know the area at all, but the key will be that similar development will be allowed nearby in addition to this one project so that an urbanish area can grow somewhat organically.
HUNTERSVILLE A Charlotte developer is proposing to build a transit-oriented retail, commercial and residential development with 772 apartments and 150 townhomes beside a planned commuter rail station.
Harris Development Group's Sam Furr Station also would include 135,500 square feet of offices and 99,500 square feet of commercial and retail businesses, according to documents the developer has filed with the Huntersville Planning Department.
The 53-acre Sam Furr Station would be on N.C. 115 across from the Caldwell Station community.
Don't know the area at all, but the key will be that similar development will be allowed nearby in addition to this one project so that an urbanish area can grow somewhat organically.
Dark Days For Dynasty Built On Debt
I'm starting to think that General Growth Properties, the source of Mrs. Tom Friedman's family fortune, might be an appropriate metaphor for everything.
Two board members of General Growth Properties Inc. marched into CEO John Bucksbaum's office to deliver a blunt message. It was time for him to resign.
An internal investigation showed that the Bucksbaum family trust had violated company policy by making private loans to two company officers and failing to inform the board....
...The stock of General Growth, which is redeveloping the demolished Cottonwood Mall in Holladay and operates five other Utah malls, has plunged more than 97 percent in the past year, dragging down the Bucksbaum family fortunes with it. The Bucksbaums' 25 percent ownership stake, worth $3.2 billion just six months ago, is now worth $116 million.
...Rather than apply for bank loans, General Growth began taking out short-term mortgages on its malls. As the mortgages came due, the company would replace them with even larger mortgages to provide cash for additional acquisitions.
The strategy picked up steam with the emergence of new debt-trading markets. In the mid-1990s, lenders started slicing up commercial mortgages and selling them to multiple investors as bonds. The boom in trading made mortgage-backed debt much cheaper and more plentiful -- as long as investors were willing to buy.
General Growth was soon at the forefront of this market. And because the company was borrowing mostly against its individual properties, lenders didn't place restrictions on its overall debt load, allowing it to accumulate more and more debt.
Dealers
Losing their inventory.
A half-dozen trailers rolled up to Eckenhoff Cadillac Buick Pontiac GMC in Jenkintown bright and early and wiped the lot clean of $8.4 million in inventory - Hummers, Cadillacs and all.
"Load up, leave. Load up, leave. . . ." The funereal rhythm of repossession transfixed the sales guys next door at Hopkins Ford Lincoln Mercury, who watched through their showroom window as the devastating news descended on their neighbor.
GMAC, the beleaguered financing arm of General Motors Corp., had called the loan that had enabled Scott Eckenhoff to stock new and used vehicles. Big trailers carted away the collateral from a Big Three retailer that had been hanging on by a thread.
GMAC also cleared out Eckenhoff's used-car lot in Maple Shade, which held another batch financed by a GMAC "floor-plan" credit line.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
- ABC's "This Week" — Leon Panetta, Clinton White House chief of staff; Ken Duberstein, Reagan White House chief of staff; Robert Gibbs, incoming press secretary to Barack Obama.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Illinois Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn; David Axelrod, senior adviser to Obama; Paul Krugman, Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economist. ___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Axelrod.
___ CNN's "Late Edition" — A compilation of interviews from 2008 featuring New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., Gov. Sarah Palin, R-Alaska, and CNN founder Ted Turner.
"Fox News Sunday" _ First lady Laura Bush.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Actually I didn't because I had no idea lending practices had gotten so absurd. I did know that people were getting loans were bad ideas for them, I just didn't know that they were getting loans which were bad ideas for the banks.
It's a shame more journalists weren't spending time trying to figure out what was going on with the housing bubble instead of getting quotes from people with a vested interest in it continuing to expand, but you go to financial crises with the press you have not the press you want.
During Mr. Killinger’s tenure, WaMu pressed sales agents to pump out loans while disregarding borrowers’ incomes and assets, according to former employees. The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.
WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.
It's a shame more journalists weren't spending time trying to figure out what was going on with the housing bubble instead of getting quotes from people with a vested interest in it continuing to expand, but you go to financial crises with the press you have not the press you want.
Getting The Talking Points Wrong
As I've written before, I don't know Phoenix and don't know if the light rail system is a good use of public funds or if it's a "boondoggle." When I've written about it before, readers have written to complain that I'm wrong to support the project. I don't have any idea! I've just mocked some of the arguments against it. In general I think that transit sytems can work in places like Phoenix if land use patterns around the system are allowed to change pretty drastically, but that's not an argument for or against any particular project. Rail haters amuse me, as do city haters generally. It's just sport.
And here we have another.
The real talking point, used by light rail-haters for a long time, is that it's "19th century" technology, not so dissimilar to the internal combustion or the automobile, but nonetheless a supposedly damning factoid.
The anti-light rail lobby has long dangled shiny "new" technology, like absurd Personal Rapid Transit vehicle systems, which miss the point of "mass" transit entirely, as a never-to-be-achieved alternative to light rail as a way of derailing projects.
And here we have another.
- Wow 1980's technology has come to the valley let me run down to the nearest light rail station with my camera!!! comical f'ing comical.
The real talking point, used by light rail-haters for a long time, is that it's "19th century" technology, not so dissimilar to the internal combustion or the automobile, but nonetheless a supposedly damning factoid.
The anti-light rail lobby has long dangled shiny "new" technology, like absurd Personal Rapid Transit vehicle systems, which miss the point of "mass" transit entirely, as a never-to-be-achieved alternative to light rail as a way of derailing projects.
Gas Tax
The advantage of a gas tax is that is does line up prices more closely with actual cost, due to various externalities, and that by putting the money towards SUPERTRAINS and other transit improvements the costs of a regressive tax can be turned into benefits for lower income people in the form of better transit service.
I won't be holding my breath, however.
I won't be holding my breath, however.
Retail Bloodbath
Pretty bad, it seems, and there will probably be many bankruptcies in January leading to further problems for commercial real estate, and on and on.
Things in the UK aren't going well, either.
Things in the UK aren't going well, either.
SUPERTRAINS
SF has a lot of public transit. But the BART/Muni split is annoying, and Muni has the Worst System Map Ever.
Discuss!
Discuss!
Meanwhile
Over there.
BAGHDAD -- A bomb tore through a busy square in Baghdad at midday Saturday, killing at least 22 people and wounding 54, the Iraqi army said, demonstrating the precariousness of the relative calm that Iraq has been enjoying for months.
Morning Thread
B-b-b-b-but the little dancing lady on my webmail says mortgage rates are wonderful!
(Krugman: the hardest working man in econ. Does he never take a day off?)
--Molly I.
(Krugman: the hardest working man in econ. Does he never take a day off?)
--Molly I.
Friday, December 26, 2008
So You Want To Start A Blog
I think Ezra's advice is roughly right. The easiest way to drum up an audience is to find a some topic, issue, or unfolding event, and make it your own. Your blog doesn't have to just be that, but it has to be the go-to place for that, and then you can fill it up with crappy music videos or whatever else makes you happy.
"Advice to bloggers" posts always seem to make some people mad. Do whatever you want with your blog! But in recent years that's how people who wanted an audience managed to obtain it.
"Advice to bloggers" posts always seem to make some people mad. Do whatever you want with your blog! But in recent years that's how people who wanted an audience managed to obtain it.
SUPERTRAIN
I think too often when such things are proposed the "perfect is the enemy of the good" syndrome sets in among good liberals. But a SUPERTRAIN in California is a good idea, and if they actually do it right will be a great idea.
-
That optimism in the face of a dire economic outlook is the product of the priorities of President-elect Barack Obama's administration; the likelihood of a big federal infrastructure investment; growing concern over climate change; the volatility of gas prices; Californians' backing of the $10 billion high-speed rail bond measure and strong support for the project from the state's potent congressional delegation, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
"It seems like the stars are aligned," said Rod Diridon of San Jose, a member of the High Speed Rail Authority.
Building the San Francisco-to-Los Angeles and Anaheim line that will be the spine of the system will cost between $32.8 billion and $33.6 billion, according to the High Speed Rail Authority's business report. Extensions built later would cost another $12 billion. In addition to the $10 billion from state bond sales, the authority is counting on $12 billion to $16 billion in federal funds plus $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in private investment and $2 billion to $3 billion in local contributions.
They Hate Him, They Really Hate Him
Buh-bye:
- Seventy-five percent of those questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday say they're glad President Bush is going, with 23 percent indicating they'll miss him.
...
The three-quarters of Americans surveyed who say they won't miss Bush is 24 points higher than the 51 percent who said they wouldn't miss Bill Clinton when he left office in January 2001. Forty-five percent of those questioned at that time said they would miss Clinton.
...
The poll indicates that Bush has been compared poorly to his predecessors, with 28 percent saying that he's the worst ever when compared to other presidents in American history. Forty percent rate Bush as poor and 31 percent feel he's been a good president.
Only a third of those polled want Bush to remain active in public life after he leaves the White House, with two-thirds saying they don't want him to stay active in a public way. That 33 percent figure who want Bush to remain in the public eye is 22 points lower than those questioned in 2001 who wanted Bill Clinton to retain a public role.
Different Rules For Democrats
Krugman argues that Obama needs to be squeaky clean, though I think he leaves unsaid the real reason: while IOKIYAR, it isn't OKIYAD.
They Like Him, They Really Like Him
Strange days.
- WASHINGTON — A month before his inauguration, Americans choose Barack Obama as the man they admire most in the world, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. It's the first time a president-elect has topped the annual survey in more than a half-century. President Bush falls to a distant second after seven years as the most-admired man. ... One-third of Americans call Obama their first or second choice for most-admired man. The only higher support for a man in the history of the survey was Bush's 39% rating in 2001, months after the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington.
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Pity The Future Historians
50 or so years from now the history dissertations about this time will start being churned out. And those poor students will have to wade through the contemporary press accounts from the 9/11-Iraq war era. I hope their advisers provide them with puke buckets, because they're going to need them.
Deep Thought
Remember when the obnoxious tone of anonymous blog commenters on liberal blogs was going to doom the Democratic party forever? Good times.
Merry Christmas
Celebrate the way the good Lord intended, with the cast of Star Wars and, of course, Bea Arthur.
Morning Thread
Travel day for me, so light posting for reasons in addition to the other ones. Can we call him Senator Franken yet?
They Like Him, They Really Like Him
I admit I'm still surprised by Obama's popularity. Maybe things have changed more than I thought.
- More than eight in 10, or 82 percent, of those questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Wednesday approve of the way Obama is handling his presidential transition.That approval is up 3 percentage points from when CNN asked the same question at the beginning of December.
Fifteen percent of those surveyed disapprove of the way the president-elect is handling his transition, down 3 points from the last poll.Obama's approval is higher than George W. Bush eight years ago.
Bush had a 65 percent approval rating during his transition, and Bill Clinton was at 67 percent in 1992."Barack Obama is having a better honeymoon with the American public than any incoming president in the past three decades. He's putting up better numbers, usually by double digits, than Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan or either George Bush on every item traditionally measured in transition polls," said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Can't Do Anything Right
Idiot.
As if this will be anything close to the "worst" pardon.
WASHINGTON - President George W. Bush on Wednesday took the extraordinary step of reversing a pardon issued the day before to Isaac Robert Toussie, the Brooklyn developer convicted of a large-scale Suffolk real estate scam, the White House said.
Victims of the scam and Suffolk elected officials rejoiced at the revocation of the pardon, which the White House said was made Tuesday without the usual Justice Department review.
As if this will be anything close to the "worst" pardon.
All
Major hit for Seattle.
- JPMorgan Chase is notifying landlords it will pull out of all the downtown Seattle office space rented by Washington Mutual by the end of March. The New York bank is laying off 80 percent of WaMu's Seattle work force and consolidating the 800 remaining office workers into the WaMu Center headquarters building it owns downtown. ... WaMu leased about 700,000 square feet in Seattle, according to brokers and building owners.
Wednesday Is New Jobless Day
This weeek, anyway. Holy crap!
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits jumped by 30,000 to a 26-year peak last week, government data on Wednesday showed, as the country's year-long recession continued to chill the labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 586,000 in the week ended Dec 20 from a revised 556,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Good morning
Have a good rant.
Always worth reminding people, though, that the NSA spy program was not a response to 9/11, but just something the Bush administration started as soon as they took over, because they wanted to be able to spy on Americans, period. They've never shown the slightest interest in protecting Americans.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Always worth reminding people, though, that the NSA spy program was not a response to 9/11, but just something the Bush administration started as soon as they took over, because they wanted to be able to spy on Americans, period. They've never shown the slightest interest in protecting Americans.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Holiday Schedule
It's that time of the year again. Traffic drops, not as much news and blogging to talk about, and I'm busy with other things. So, holiday schedule's pretty much beginning.... now. Reduced posting, even more exciting open threads, pictures of SUPERTRAINS, etc.
Kennedy
I, too, don't mind the idea that Senate vacancies are sometimes used to appoint people who haven't really spent much time in electoral politics. One flaw in democracy, specifically our particular version of it, is that there's no real reason that the skills required to get elected match up all that well with the skills necessary to become an awesome legislator. So a lot of senators really do suck, and not just because they disagree with my politics, but because they're sub-competent dolts.
But as Sam says at the link, that isn't really an argument for Kennedy as opposed to plenty of other people who might be pretty awesome.
But as Sam says at the link, that isn't really an argument for Kennedy as opposed to plenty of other people who might be pretty awesome.
No Earmarks
Obviously it makes sense from Obama's perspective to get a bill without earmarks, giving the executive branch much more flexibility about how to spend the money. It also makes sense from a negotiations perspective to prevent every member from demanding their little cut. But it isn't clear that this is actually better policy. Sure the earmark process is often flawed, and some resulting projects are absurd and/or corrupt, but it's also the case that members of Congress sometimes have a better understanding of local needs than the federal DOT does.
Pardon Season
It's quite likely Bush will pardon top Republicans including ones who could implicate him in the various crimes he's been responsible for, but the Villagers will cheer those pardons and continue to discuss the Marc Rich pardon, which was worse than the holocaust.
News
My hazy memory of recent history of newspapers&the internet is that as the dot com boom got going, many newspapers did try to embrace the internet and spent time and money thinking about how to do that. Then when the dot com bust hit there was an almost relieved "oh, good, you can't make money on the internets anyway" and such efforts were scaled back.
But, basically, newspapers could have done anything on the internet that anyone else did. I think there was some understanding of this early on, with Knight-Ridder and others setting up what were poised to be branded local portal sites (philly.com, boston.com) but which sort of stagnated creatively, both in terms of content and potential revenue streams. The point is that they had fairly high traffic web sites and known brands and they could have leveraged that for lots of things. Free classifieds, online dating, concert and other event ticket sales (either directly or commission cut), affiliations with online retailers like Amazon, local search. Whether or not any of these or better ideas could provide enough revenue to support a rough approximation of their news gathering operation I don't know, but you got the sense that many papers weren't even trying.
And we shouldn't leave aside the issue of content, both in print and online. It seems that newspapers are partially hamstrung by outmoded notions of what print journalism is supposed to be and, frankly, they should think a bit harder about giving the people what they want. Failure to change was in part due to the notion that they were important civic institutions giving the city what it needed instead of what people wanted, which worked as long as the monopoly held. That doesn't mean dumbing things down or trying to be "hip," it means making it more interesting. People like stories. Lots of stories in my big dumb city. Tell interesting stories! The Philadelphia Inquirer should be more like The Wire and less like wire copy.
But, basically, newspapers could have done anything on the internet that anyone else did. I think there was some understanding of this early on, with Knight-Ridder and others setting up what were poised to be branded local portal sites (philly.com, boston.com) but which sort of stagnated creatively, both in terms of content and potential revenue streams. The point is that they had fairly high traffic web sites and known brands and they could have leveraged that for lots of things. Free classifieds, online dating, concert and other event ticket sales (either directly or commission cut), affiliations with online retailers like Amazon, local search. Whether or not any of these or better ideas could provide enough revenue to support a rough approximation of their news gathering operation I don't know, but you got the sense that many papers weren't even trying.
And we shouldn't leave aside the issue of content, both in print and online. It seems that newspapers are partially hamstrung by outmoded notions of what print journalism is supposed to be and, frankly, they should think a bit harder about giving the people what they want. Failure to change was in part due to the notion that they were important civic institutions giving the city what it needed instead of what people wanted, which worked as long as the monopoly held. That doesn't mean dumbing things down or trying to be "hip," it means making it more interesting. People like stories. Lots of stories in my big dumb city. Tell interesting stories! The Philadelphia Inquirer should be more like The Wire and less like wire copy.
Doesn't Anyone Remember Anthrax?
It is weird that conservatives continue to celebrate the fact that "only" 9/11 happened under Bush's watch, as if catastrophic terrorist attacks of that magnitude have been a regular feature of American life.
But of course it wasn't "only" 9/11. We also had the anthrax attacks, which in my somewhat controversial opinion did more to drive the nation temporarily insane than the 9/11 attacks. 9/11 was horrific, but anthrax was 'OMG TERRRORISTS ARE GOING TO CRAWL THROUGH MY TOILET.' Anthrax made it seem like terrorism might become an ongoing feature of life.
And of course we've also had numerous soldiers killed by terrorist acts, as well as civilians, in Iraq. Plus, of course, the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who died while under our "protection."
Heckuva job, Bushie!
But of course it wasn't "only" 9/11. We also had the anthrax attacks, which in my somewhat controversial opinion did more to drive the nation temporarily insane than the 9/11 attacks. 9/11 was horrific, but anthrax was 'OMG TERRRORISTS ARE GOING TO CRAWL THROUGH MY TOILET.' Anthrax made it seem like terrorism might become an ongoing feature of life.
And of course we've also had numerous soldiers killed by terrorist acts, as well as civilians, in Iraq. Plus, of course, the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who died while under our "protection."
Heckuva job, Bushie!
Still Really Bad
Housing market still horrible.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of existing homes plunged 8.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49 million, from a revised 4.91 million rate in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.
It was the slowest pace in nearly 18 years.
...
A second report said sales of new single-family homes also fell in November, to the weakest levels since 1991, according to the Commerce Department.
The seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 407,000 new homes was down 2.9% from October and was the lowest rate since January, 1991.
Shorter EJ Dionne
We should welcome hateful bigots into the party if they have a large constituency on the off chance they'll renounce their hateful bigotry.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Bye Jim
I gather wapo.com's Jim Brady probably isn't all that bad a guy, and we shall be forever thankful for him bringing us Box Turtle Ben Domenech, and one of the most entertaining weeks of my blogging life.
...ah, I see Jane's doing a retrospective. Good times.
...ah, I see Jane's doing a retrospective. Good times.
Whose Fault?
On the Lou Dobbs xenophobia hour I just learned that states are going broke because illegal aliens are taking all your taxpayer dollars.
Congratulations, Cokie!
You win!
Though my choice was Matthews & Shuster finding it weird that Obama... ordered orange juice in a diner.
Though my choice was Matthews & Shuster finding it weird that Obama... ordered orange juice in a diner.
2009 American Almanac
Otherwise known as the Statistical Abstract of the United States is out. Have fun!
SUPERTRAIN
Still requires legislative approval.
I don't really know these communities so don't have an opinion about whether this is awesome or not. But in general the awesomeness of such projects depends on the degree to which land use and development patterns around the corridor/stations are allowed to change.
More info here.
Montgomery County planners today endorsed building a light rail system along the proposed east-west Purple Line and recommended running the trains mostly above ground and next to the Capital Crescent Trail, a heavily used hiker-biker route.
I don't really know these communities so don't have an opinion about whether this is awesome or not. But in general the awesomeness of such projects depends on the degree to which land use and development patterns around the corridor/stations are allowed to change.
More info here.
What's The Problem
Emailers and commenters (here and elsewhere) have been suggesting that because Yglesias's boss acted like an idiot, Matt has to... I don't know, something. Look, even a fantasy version of editorial independence doesn't really include calling out your boss using your boss's printing press.
Trade Wars
Should be fun.
Seeking to avoid such a reversal, leaders from 20 major and emerging economies gathered in Washington on Nov. 15 for a global economic summit, issuing a pledge to refrain from protectionist measures for at least 12 months. They also vowed to reach a breakthrough this year on a stalled global trade deal that would bring down tariffs on a wide variety of exports, injecting as much as $100 billion into the global economy.
But nations have failed to comply with both of those promises, with many not waiting for the ink to dry on the summit agreement before reversing course.
For example, on Nov. 18 -- just three days after the summit -- India levied a new 20 percent duty on imports of some soybean oils to protect domestic farmers as international prices have dropped during the global economic slump. Experts in India think the government may soon raise taxes on other types of foreign-made cooking oils.
Increasingly, nations are rolling out support for battered domestic industries that critics are decrying as trade-distorting government subsidies. The United States, under fire for bailing out General Motors and Chrysler, on Friday announced that it was taking legal action against China at the WTO for allegedly offering unfair support of its export industry -- including the award of cash grants, rebates and preferential loans to exporters.
Deep Thought
It does not affect your daily life very much if your neighbor marries a box turtle. But that does not mean it is right... Now you must raise your children up in a world where that union of man and box turtle is on the same legal footing as man and wife.
WAAAAAAAAAAHHHH
Josh:
Right. There's nothing wrong with disagreements - within members of institutions and between institutions - but this is just 'WAHHH ONE OF YOUR PEOPLE SAID SOMETHING MEAN ABOUT US YOU HAVE TO SAY SOMETHING NICE ABOUT US.' I mean, I have no idea if Third Way contacted Palmieri and complained or not, but in any case this sort of ego-smoothing is really really childish. But it's how the Village works! We are ruled by children.
Adding to the problem is that the fact that the 'guest post' seems pretty clearly to stem from inter-group Dem politics rather than any disagreement that some actual person has with what Matt said.
Right. There's nothing wrong with disagreements - within members of institutions and between institutions - but this is just 'WAHHH ONE OF YOUR PEOPLE SAID SOMETHING MEAN ABOUT US YOU HAVE TO SAY SOMETHING NICE ABOUT US.' I mean, I have no idea if Third Way contacted Palmieri and complained or not, but in any case this sort of ego-smoothing is really really childish. But it's how the Village works! We are ruled by children.
Reality Bites
Even now my interpretation is that the Wise Men Of Washington who are "dealing" with this financial crisis believe they are dealing with a liquidity crisis rather than an insolvency one. They think that big shitpile is actually worth something, but that "financial actors" are "spooked." They think that if banks aren't lending it's because they have temporary capital issues because of this, instead of the fact that maybe banks aren't lending because recession is here and it's not the most awesome time to lend money for projects. And if only we can get mortgage rates low enough then absurd housing price appreciation can continue 4evah! As if that would be a good thing.
For five figures in Los Angeles, the offerings are pretty humble. Pretty typical is a one-bedroom, one-bathroom house on East 98th Street in South Los Angeles, near the intersection of the Harbor Freeway and Century Boulevard. Its listing calls the 738-square-foot house "great for a growing family." The seller wants $85,000 for the house, which sold in 2006 for . . . $365,000.
Chasing A Shrinking Population
Of course it makes perfect sense in a radio market already dominated by conservative voices to add even more after a Democratic landslide election.
Dying business. Good riddance.
Dying business. Good riddance.
Civil Society Costs
And the money's running out.
Reporting from Brentwood, N.H. -- Come February, the red-brick Rockingham County Courthouse, one of New Hampshire's busiest, will arraign criminal suspects, process legal motions and otherwise deal with murders, mayhem and contract disputes. What it won't do is hold jury trials.
The economic storm has come to this: Justice is being delayed or disrupted in state courtrooms across the country.
Financially strapped New Hampshire has become a poster child for the problem. Among other cost-cutting measures, state courts will halt for a month all civil and criminal jury trials early next year to save $73,000 in jurors' per diems. Officials warn they may add another four-week suspension.
Who Pays?
Hilzoy succinctly summarizes the deep injustice involved in ensuring financial executives retain their bonuses, company paid chauffeurs, accountants and private jet rides, while UAW workers and retirees must give up wages and benefits they won in fair negotiations.
Honestly: what sense does it make to stick it to a bunch of auto workers while letting the financial executives off scot-free? How can Richard Shelby get all upset about the fact that some blue-collar workers have, gasp, health care, and not about the fact that financial executives, on whom we have spent a lot more money than the Big Three ever asked for, get financial planners and chauffeurs? Just imagine the furious oratory we might have heard had the UAW succeeded in negotiating benefits like the ones people get at Goldman Sachs. (I'll bet chauffeurs would help auto workers concentrate more on their jobs...)
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Choke On Your Own Vomit
Mark Sanford's got a problem.
This city in the center of South Carolina is an ideal listening post. According to a range of indicators assembled by Moody’s Economy.com — from job growth to change in household worth — this metropolitan area came closer than any other to being a microcosm of the nation over the last decade.
This is now an unfortunate distinction. Some 533,000 jobs disappeared from the economy in November, the worst month since 1974. In South Carolina, a government panel is predicting that the state’s unemployment rate could reach 14 percent by the middle of next year.
...
Yet questions confront the notion of putting people to work through federal largess. South Carolina’s governor, Mark Sanford, a Republican, has been an ardent opponent of federal aid for states, branding it pork barrel spending. If the money is delivered to state agencies like the Department of Transportation, which has its own list of priorities, Columbia might be disappointed.
Overnight
Enjoy
...use this thread to contemplate the issue of editorial independence, and the various revenue models which make it possible or not.
...use this thread to contemplate the issue of editorial independence, and the various revenue models which make it possible or not.
Cheap Gas For A Little While Longer
I'm pretty surprised that gas prices have gone way done. No particular insight, but those (including me) who thought we were hitting a new higher priced paradigm have been proven, at least temporarily, wrong.
Suckers
You and me, that is, and anyone who didn't set up their own Ponzi-ish scheme during the past 8 years. I think an appropriate symbol of this era comes from Steve & Barry's, a chain store I never went to, which filed for bankruptcy earlier in the year.
It really was an awesome business model. Sell things at prices to low to cover your operating costs, and then make it up by taking big upfront payments from malls to open more stores which couldn't cover their costs.
Even as its business imploded, it claimed annual sales of about $1.1 billion and sales gains of 20 percent in stores open one year or more. But the company’s strategy of operating on razor-thin margins and of adding stores in distressed locations with special payments from landlords became tenuous in recent months as the economy weakened.
It really was an awesome business model. Sell things at prices to low to cover your operating costs, and then make it up by taking big upfront payments from malls to open more stores which couldn't cover their costs.
Unfounded
I don't know if Rick Warren is a liar, stupid, or both (we're so often confronted with this question), but either way he isn't someone who should be listened to about anything.
And since he's demonstrably wrong, should he rethink his position?
haha, just kidding.
And since he's demonstrably wrong, should he rethink his position?
haha, just kidding.
Unemployment
It's interesting reading about the state-level unemployment data. For places that I know at least a little bit it gives me a better sense of what it might actually mean. North Carolina:
I've long said that a deep recession has sort of been lost from our cultural memory. The last one was the Reagan recession, though as bad as it was it was actually quite short. There were regional pockets of deep pain in the Bush I recession, but nationally it wasn't that big of a deal.
North Carolina lost jobs at a record pace last month, pushing unemployment to a 25-year high as the outlook for the state darkened amid a deepening recession.
Employers slashed 46,000 jobs in November, more than in any state except Florida, according to data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Those job cuts pushed the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent from 7.1 percent in October, according to figures from the N.C. Employment Security Commission. The jobless rate is now the highest since October 1983.
I've long said that a deep recession has sort of been lost from our cultural memory. The last one was the Reagan recession, though as bad as it was it was actually quite short. There were regional pockets of deep pain in the Bush I recession, but nationally it wasn't that big of a deal.
Rick Warren Is A Big Fat Idiot
Which is why, even aside from his support for Prop H8 and his general horrible beliefs, it's such an insulting choice.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's "This Week" — Vice President-elect Joe Biden.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Kerry Kennedy, cousin of Caroline Kennedy; Reps. Tom Reynolds, R-N.Y.; Peter King, R-N.Y., and Gary Ackerman, D-N.Y.; Joel Klein, chancellor, New York City Department of Education.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
___
CNN's "Late Edition" — Reps. Barney Frank, D-Mass., and Eric Cantor, R-Va.; Laura Tyson, former Clinton economic adviser; Carly Fiorina, former Hewlett-Packard chairman and CEO.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Vice President Dick Cheney.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
They Fucked The Whole Thing Up
This NYT article about the mortgage/housing market issues is pretty good for what it is, thought it overemphasizes the role of Fannie and Freddie and completely ignores the finance/securitization side (not necessarily a big flaw, given the focus on White House policy influence).
Anyway, as I've said many times... all you had to do was look at home prices, look at incomes, and realize that not enough people actually made enough money to afford those mortgages. If you wanted some confirmation you could look at rent-to-own ratios, as someone did in the Bush White House (and was ignored), and look at what was happening to Option ARM mortgages (negative amortization). Those things were up front and obvious, even if not everything was.
Anyway, as I've said many times... all you had to do was look at home prices, look at incomes, and realize that not enough people actually made enough money to afford those mortgages. If you wanted some confirmation you could look at rent-to-own ratios, as someone did in the Bush White House (and was ignored), and look at what was happening to Option ARM mortgages (negative amortization). Those things were up front and obvious, even if not everything was.
Still Wanking
The three stooges, John, Joe, and Lindsey, go to the Washington Post to tell us that what's important that we find "consensus" on Iraq.
This Washington fetishization of everyone agreeing with each other is just weird. People disagree about stuff. I'd think people in politics would understand that.
This Washington fetishization of everyone agreeing with each other is just weird. People disagree about stuff. I'd think people in politics would understand that.
Selling
Looks like the source of Tom Friedman's wife's wealth needs some cash.
New York brokerage DTZ Rockwood LLC said on its Web site Thursday it has been retained to market the Festival Marketplace portfolio, which includes Baltimore's Harborplace & The Gallery, New York's South Street Seaport and Boston's Faneuil Hall.
On Wednesday, GGP said lenders had agreed to a two-month extension on $900 million of debt service.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Deep Thoughts
Obviously Josh's Deep Thoughts are generally done in the spirit that mine are, with a healthy dose of stupidity irony, but it's still important to understand that it's really really hard to make a truly rich person poor, absent hauling them off in shackles. There's a big difference between falling down a few social classes and, you know, being homeless. I'll even be a bit sympathetic and acknowledge that anyone who finds their socioeconomic status in jeopardy is experiencing a great degree of distress. But distress is not poverty. Even if Mrs. Tom Friedman's mall company goes bankrupt, the mustache of understanding will still not have to suck on anything it doesn't want to. Though, sadly, he'll still be making us suck on it!
Gullyvornia
Things are not going well there.
Unemployment in California, fueled by a weak economy and lackluster holiday season retail hiring, rose to 8.4% in November from 8.2% the month before.
Mass Transit Not Good For Everything
Admittedly.
The Route 101 trolley served as a get-away vehicle for the two bank robbers arrested by SEPTA Police at the 69th Street terminal at 10 am today.
The two men are suspected of robbing the Sovereign Bank located at Providence Road and Baltimore Pike in Media.
After fleeing the bank, they were seen boarding the Route 101 trolley for the 25 minute ride into Upper Darby . SEPTA Police Sergeant Don Wagner and SEPTA Officer James Hoback overheard a police scanner broadcast about the robbery and were waiting for the alleged robbers when the trolley arrived at the 69th Street Terminal.
Indulging My Guilty Pleasue
Which is reading the comments in local newspaper articles like these. Anyway, SWCC, formerly Graduate Hospital or G-Ho until Tenet sold the hospital to help pay a bunch of Medicare fraud fines, was my old neighborhood, though I lived at the very Northern end of it, closer in character to the neighboring wealthy neighborhood of Rittenhouse Square. It was a pretty marginal neighborhood when I first got to Philly, though it has improved a lot since then. It was an area where, for better or for worse, developer frenzy existed and plenty of them didn't/aren't going to get nearly as much cash for their houses as they thought. Still the housing stock has been greatly improved over the past 7 years or so.
Urban Hellholes
Because no matter how many times I write it that I am not talking about the city, I am talking about slightly different suburbs than the prevailing model, people feel the need to explain to me that not everyone likes the city. I know!
Since reading comprehension can't be that poor, I assume that some people just lack the model. They don't know what I'm talking about because they haven't seen it. So, I'm talking about places like Narberth, where once you get a couple blocks away from the main street it's suburban, just not typical 1990s-era suburban.
Since reading comprehension can't be that poor, I assume that some people just lack the model. They don't know what I'm talking about because they haven't seen it. So, I'm talking about places like Narberth, where once you get a couple blocks away from the main street it's suburban, just not typical 1990s-era suburban.
Local Pub
One of the enduring mysteries to me is how so much of our population voluntarily chooses to live in places where walking - or even taking a cab - home from a bar, any bar, really isn't an option. While I believe there is a shortage of walkable communities in many parts of the country, with many people being priced out of what little good urban living is available, I also believe that many people really like the archetypal American suburban neighborhood. This desire for complete separation of residential/retail is just weird to me.
...adding, I don't mean that I find it weird that people want to live in suburbs, I mean that I find it weird that so many people want to live in the post-1950s style suburbs which are prevalent in many places, instead of places which more resemble older inner ring suburbs or European-style suburbs. Still very suburban, but with walkable access to retail at least in parts.
...adding, I don't mean that I find it weird that people want to live in suburbs, I mean that I find it weird that so many people want to live in the post-1950s style suburbs which are prevalent in many places, instead of places which more resemble older inner ring suburbs or European-style suburbs. Still very suburban, but with walkable access to retail at least in parts.
Gonna Steal It All
Nobody could have predicted.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says Congress will need to release the last half of the $700 billion rescue fund because the first $350 billion has been committed.
Odious
It is an odious rule, and absurd, and women will suffer or even die because of it. I've been around members of the "religious left" for whom "conscience clauses" are considered to be nonnegotiable. Be careful how big you make that tent.
Liars
They lied. Hundreds of thousands of people died. Then they lied about lying.
How they live with themselves I do not know. How the Villagers get more upset about, say, John Edwards' big house than this stuff I do not know.
How they live with themselves I do not know. How the Villagers get more upset about, say, John Edwards' big house than this stuff I do not know.
Dirty Hippies
The divide between Dirty Fucking Hippie and Serious Person really turns on whether you are on board with what I call the Great American Hegemony Project.
Domestic policy issues, not so important.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Our Bigoted Media-Industrial Complex
Being anti-gay is perfectly acceptable, and nothing pleases The Villagers more than punching hippies in the face, so it's a two-fer. Greg Sargent:
I don't actually think it was a good step politically, even though I agree that often punching hippies in the face is, sadly, politically smart. But it would be nice if someone like, say, EJ Dionne, would confront Warren's bigotry and suggest it isn't the change we can believe in. But I assume it'll just be the dirty fucking hippies and Teh Gay. Because anti-gay bigotry is very centrist!
Such a decision would be met not just with screams from the right, but outrage from middle-of-the-road pols and pundits all over the country. But the pick of Warren is only generating outrage from the left, so it doesn't matter, and indeed, it's good for Obama politically, we're told.
I don't actually think it was a good step politically, even though I agree that often punching hippies in the face is, sadly, politically smart. But it would be nice if someone like, say, EJ Dionne, would confront Warren's bigotry and suggest it isn't the change we can believe in. But I assume it'll just be the dirty fucking hippies and Teh Gay. Because anti-gay bigotry is very centrist!
America's Pastor
Doesn't believe in evolution, equates gay marriage with child rape, and, frankly, is a fucking idiot. Thanks Faith In Public Life! Thanks Obama!
Barack Obama has selected the Rev. Rick Warren, the evangelical pastor and author of “The Purpose Driven Life,” to deliver the invocation at his inauguration, a role that positions Mr. Warren to succeed Billy Graham as the nation’s pre-eminent minister and reflects the generational changes in the evangelical Christian movement.
Madoff Fallout
This NYT article suggests Madoff fallout could further impact many in Big Real Estate because they used their investments with him as collateral for their projects.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still high.
The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week, easing from a 26-year peak, government data showed Thursday, but stayed at levels consistent with a distressed economy.
Jobless claims are still more than 200,000 higher than a year ago. Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell 21,000, to a seasonally adjusted 554,000 in the week ended Dec. 13 from an upwardly revised 575,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Turn Your Backs
I won't be in DC, but let me suggest that the appropriate way to deal with Warren's appearance for those who are there is to turn your backs to him.
Old Time Religion
Who would Jesus assassinate?
...it should be obvious, but in case it isn't, imagine the headlines here if a prominent cleric who had called for the assassination of Bush spoke at an equivalent Iranian event? That's some diplomacy we can believe in, my friends!
...it should be obvious, but in case it isn't, imagine the headlines here if a prominent cleric who had called for the assassination of Bush spoke at an equivalent Iranian event? That's some diplomacy we can believe in, my friends!
Lever Up!
I really don't think it's appropriate for state pension funds to be making leveraged investments.
Liars For Jesus
Aside from the bigot part, Rick Warren is, you know, a liar.
That's some lying we can believe in, my friends.
...more complete quote:
Warren claimed he supported Proposition 8 because of a free-speech issue -- asserting that "any pastor could be considered doing hate speech . . . if he shared his views that homosexuality wasn't the most natural way for relationships."
That's some lying we can believe in, my friends.
...more complete quote:
And the reason I supported Prop 8 really, was a free speech issue. Because if it had…. First, the court overid the will of the people. But second, is, there were all kinds of threats that if you… that did not pass, then any pastor could be considered doing hate speech if he shared his views that he didn’t think homosexuality was the most natural way for relationships. And that would be hate speech. To me, we should have freedom of speech. And you should be able to have freedom of speech to make your position, and I should be able to have freedom of speech to make my position. And can we do this in a civil way?
REINFLATE THE BUBBLE
I know we're in crazy economic times here, but it's still a bit weird seeing economists suggesting that our government get into the mortgage business at below market rates. Something else to consider is that substantial numbers of marginal homeowners, people who are notionally roughly on the fence between renting or buying, are the very people who have been or soon will be in foreclosure. These are the people who were lured into becoming buyers instead of renters by the availability of cheap credit. Going to offer them low interest loans given the hit their credit rating just took? Home ownership rates are still quite high by historic standards.
Meanwhile
Thanks, Oh Wise Men Of Washington. Heckuva job!
BAGHDAD — A bomb planted in a minibus exploded near a parking lot of the Iraqi traffic police in a market neighborhood of northeastern Baghdad on Wednesday, killing at least 18 people and injuring 52, Ministry of Interior and police officials said.
Is That You, Ben?
CNN's telling me about someone wandering around handing out free money to people. For a second I thought it might be Helicopter Ben Bernanke engaging in some creative monetary policy, but some of the people look kinda poor so I doubt it.
You Forgot Murkowski!
I'm not a fan of political dynasties, but the Villagers have decided this was a recent invention by Democrats which is absurd.
Even Worse
I can remember when Irvine Renter was making his "crazy" predictions about falling home prices.
I don't think I had a strong belief back then about whether home prices would level off/decline a bit or go bust. The reason was that I had no idea that lending standards had gotten so bad. I knew people were taking out loans with shitty terms which would come back and bite them in the ass, but I didn't know banks had basically tossed out "ability to repay" as something to be concerned about. I did know that there was no way continued appreciation was sustainable because I knew that not enough people in the country had that much money.
I don't think I had a strong belief back then about whether home prices would level off/decline a bit or go bust. The reason was that I had no idea that lending standards had gotten so bad. I knew people were taking out loans with shitty terms which would come back and bite them in the ass, but I didn't know banks had basically tossed out "ability to repay" as something to be concerned about. I did know that there was no way continued appreciation was sustainable because I knew that not enough people in the country had that much money.
Back to the 90s
I'm not surprised that Congressional Republicans want to go back there. It was truly their time. They were the stars of Washington, and all they had to do was make some shit up and cable news would give them a platform to spew it. Truly fun times.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Criminal incompetence.
Of course our boy Steve was all positive when the bill was passed.
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Steve Preston said the centerpiece of the federal government's effort to help struggling homeowners has been a failure and he's blaming Congress.
The three-year program was supposed to help 400,000 borrowers avoid foreclosure. But it has attracted only 312 applications since its October launch because it is too expensive and onerous for lenders and borrowers alike, Preston said in an interview.
...
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who helped steer the HUD program through Congress, said some of the federal bailout money should be used to revamp it. Frank acknowledged the initiative has its problems, but he blamed them on the Bush administration.
"That's partly their fault," said Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. "The administration was critical of the program and kept putting pressure on us to make it cheaper and more restrictive. . . . If it hadn't been for the Bush administration's opposition, we would have written it in a better way in the first place."
Of course our boy Steve was all positive when the bill was passed.
This program starts today and ends September 30, 2011. The HOPE for Homeowners program was passed by Congress and signed by the President at the end of July. The legislation allows FHA to kick off the program no earlier than October 1.
We wanted the program implemented by October 1. We moved quickly. Many said it couldn't be done. We knew it would be tough.
* We needed extensive coordination with other federal agencies.
* Our teams needed to reprogram and expand systems and hire staff.
Well, we did it.
I thank everyone involved for their hard work and dedication. I especially want to thank all of the HOPE for Homeowners Board designees including Brian Montgomery, the FHA Commissioner; Phil Swagel, Treasury's Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy; Governor Betsy Duke from the Federal Reserve Board; and the Director of FDIC, Tom Curry, for their public service to the nation during these trying times.
This program is one more tool in the toolbox for homeowners and lenders. It is yet one more way that families may be helped to weather the current turbulence in the housing market. For the past two years, HUD has offered other ways to help homeowners find the right mortgage and stay in their homes. FHASecure is what we call our refinancing program.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Rules For Democrats
As Jamo notes, Obama has two choices: 1) honor Fitzgerald's request and delay the release of his internal investigation, and 2) fail to honor Fitzgerald's request and potentially undermine parts of his corruption investigation. Obviously #2 would be the more suspicious course of action and would rightly raise the eyebrows of reporters. But fortunately our reporters know the rules of the new game, so #1 is a problem too!
Ingrates
A theme which has been with us since the beginning.
One wonders why we didn't respond to this lack of gratitude by, you know, leaving.
Ah, memories.
One wonders why we didn't respond to this lack of gratitude by, you know, leaving.
Ah, memories.
Act Of An Ingrate
I don't expect everyone to approve of shoe throwing as appropriate political protest, but only our sick and corrupt elites could literally be unable to comprehend what might motivate such a thing. It's one thing to condemn the act, but something else to deny legitimate motivation. We blew up their country, hundreds of thousands of people died, and millions were displaced. Ungrateful wogs!
Do The WaPo Editors Let Just Anything Through
Richard Cohen doesn't think Michelle Obama will be worrying her beautiful mind about "hard news."
Changes
I think I'd misunderstood when I first heard about this and thought they were discontinuing all paper copies most days. Regarding the Detroit papers:
I don't know enough about the various costs of doing business, but one imagines suburban (especially) home delivery is quite expensive. And I wonder why the free tabloid format seems to work well for things like the Metro but hasn't been as embraced by "real" newspapers.
Expanding digital information channels that provide news and information to a variety of audiences when, where and how they want it.
Limiting newspaper home delivery to Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays while selling printed copies at newsstand seven days a week.
Providing subscribers daily access to electronic editions, exact copies of each day’s printed newspapers.
I don't know enough about the various costs of doing business, but one imagines suburban (especially) home delivery is quite expensive. And I wonder why the free tabloid format seems to work well for things like the Metro but hasn't been as embraced by "real" newspapers.
Unconcerned With The Consequences
Yglesias:
I don't expect Cheney's gang to ever care about the hell they unleashed in that country, but they were enabled by almost the entire population of Elite Washington. Even now simple inconvenient facts of that time are brushed aside in favor of the Official Narrative. The complete lack of repentance or honest accounting by our elites is a continuing reminder of just how corrupt and sick elite Washington is. I don't know how they live with themselves. They're obviously not like me or most of the people I know.
The harsh reality is that this was not a noble undertaking done for good reasons. It was a criminal enterprise launched by madmen cheered on by a chorus of fools and cowards. And it’s seen as such by virtually everyone all around the world — including but by no means limited to the Arab world. But it’s impolitic to point this out in the United States, and it’s clear that even a president-elect who had the wisdom not to be suckered in by the War Fever of 2002 has no intention of really acting to marginalize the bad actors. Which, I think, makes sense for his political objectives. But if Americans want to play a constructive role in world affairs, it’s vitally important for us to get in touch with the reality of what the past eight years of US foreign policy have been and how they’re seen and understood by people who aren’t stirred by the shibboleths of American patriotism.
I don't expect Cheney's gang to ever care about the hell they unleashed in that country, but they were enabled by almost the entire population of Elite Washington. Even now simple inconvenient facts of that time are brushed aside in favor of the Official Narrative. The complete lack of repentance or honest accounting by our elites is a continuing reminder of just how corrupt and sick elite Washington is. I don't know how they live with themselves. They're obviously not like me or most of the people I know.
Depressing
I find the whole unfolding Caroline Kennedy saga to be rather depressing. Not just that she's being considered (in the press if not elsewhere), but that she's running a public campaign which involves reaching out to elites. The whole thing is just weird and feeds into the politics as personality soap opera that the press loves to focus on.
Americans Are Deeply Unserious
We're supposed to stay 4evah!
Americans are more upbeat about U.S. prospects in Iraq than at any time in the past five years, but nearly two-thirds continue to believe the war is not worth fighting and 70 percent say President-elect Barack Obama should fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw U.S. forces from the country within 16 months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Starts
Home building industry not going to turn around for awhile.
Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders broke ground in November on the fewest new homes since record-keeping began, signaling the housing slump will extend into a fourth year.
Construction starts on housing fell 18.9 percent last month to an annual rate of 625,000 that was the lowest since the government started compiling statistics in 1959, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The annual rate was lower than all 70 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Monday, December 15, 2008
365
Aside from the obvious "gee it was nice to win" bit, it was a bit of a relief that this election wasn't a close-enough-to-be-disputed one as the last two were.
I always expected Obama to win, though that didn't prevent me from worrying about the horror of the alternative, but I didn't expect him to win that big. Indiana, bitches!
I always expected Obama to win, though that didn't prevent me from worrying about the horror of the alternative, but I didn't expect him to win that big. Indiana, bitches!
Nobody Could've Predicted
That Chris Cox would suck ass.
The latest black eye for the commission came when inspectors and agency lawyers missed a series of red flags at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities. If it had checked out the warnings, the commission might well have discovered years ago that the firm was concealing its losses by using billions of dollars from some investors to pay others.
The firm was the subject of several inquiries over the years, including one last year that was closed by the agency’s New York office after it received a referral of potentially significant problems from the Boston office.
Similarly, the agency’s chairman, Christopher Cox, assured investors nine months ago that all was well at Bear Stearns. It collapsed three days later.
Between those two events, H. David Kotz, the commission’s new inspector general, has documented several major botched investigations. He has told lawmakers of one case in which the commission’s enforcement chief improperly tipped off a private lawyer about an insider-trading inquiry.
Salazar To Interior
I have no opinion on whether he's a good choice for that job, but don't mind the idea that he's leaving the Senate hopefully to be replaced by a better Democrat.
Due Diligence
But you forgot to look inside the magical money box!
Nice work!!
Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Tremont Group Holdings Inc., a hedge- fund firm owned by OppenheimerFunds Inc., had $3.3 billion invested with Bernard Madoff, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Tremont’s Rye Investment Management unit had $3.1 billion, virtually all of its assets, invested with Madoff, said the person, who declined to be identified because the information is private. Tremont had another $200 million invested through its fund of funds group, Tremont Capital Management.
“We believe Tremont exercised appropriate due diligence in connection with the Madoff investments,” the company said in a statement.
Nice work!!
When I Forget To Finish A Thought
Yes, there's a difference state speech and private speech on public property. Religious stuff is fine in the latter case as long as it's nondiscriminatory. But, in practice, that's going to be problematic. So put up some nonreligious holiday displays and leave it at that!
BK
Business bankruptcies soaring, which isn't just bad news for the business owners but also all the people they owe money to.
Teh Google
A bunch of people have sent in complaints about the WSJ Google article. I think this Wired analysis, sent in by reader b, is the best. The WSJ was wrong that Google had changed their position, but there is nonetheless reason for concern about the edge caching they're engaging in. On the margin there's nothing wrong with it as it speeds up the internets. But if content providers continue to do this they'll effectively privilege their own content over others, and if the main tubes get clogged while their content flows more freely it will in effect be an erosion of net neutrality even if it wasn't their evil intention.
Transit
Matt's correct that while you can just start putting down track for SUPERTRAINS everywhere, there are plenty of mass transit-related projects that can be implemented fairly quickly. Some of them are pretty unsexy, such as station refurbishment, and some of them, such as buying new SUPERTRAIN capital stock, wouldn't see results right away but would still act as an economic stimulus.
Historical Accident
I didn't mean to suggest that it was a "historical accident" in the sense that it happened magically without any human beings directing it. What I mean is that the internet as we know it was not simply a neat technological development which would have inevitably happened. We got lucky! Lucky that smart people were in the right places doing the right things at the right time, and lucky that other relatively powerful actors (Compuserve, AOL, etc...) weren't aware that their existing business models were about to take a severe beating. Lucky that few understood the potential and didn't try to legislate or regulate it out of existence before it took off. Imagine telling senators in 1992 that soon every 13 year old would have a porn machine on his/her desk.
Laws
If members of Congress can't get outraged when they're lied to, I'm kinda starting to wonder why I should bother getting outraged on their behalf.
The accountability-free era.
The accountability-free era.
Secular Christmas
As someone who grew up in a religion-free home, but nonetheless celebrated Christmas and Easter, I've long been puzzled by the difficulty many - even fairly nonreligious people - have in seeing them as secular holidays grafted onto religious ones. Christmas was about trees and Santa and presents. Easter was about chocolate bunnies and colored eggs. While both have their roots in religious traditions, the secular traditions easily exist independently. So, for holiday displays on public property, trees and lights are fine but nativity scenes and crosses aren't. It really isn't that complicated.
Their Job
Nice to see someone make the obvious but important point.
I've seen some around the internets ask why people would invest in a fund which did little other than invest in another fund and take a cut. The only reason is because you're paying them to do due diligence. Which they weren't because Madoff's investment strategy was the "secret magic box" that no one was allowed to look inside. Nice work!!
The $7.3 billion Fairfield Sentry Fund invested solely with Madoff, taking a cut of 1 percent of assets and 20 percent of gains, which averaged about 11 percent annually in the past 15 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Fairfield Greenwich is one of at least 15 hedge-fund firms and private banks, including Tremont Holdings Group Inc. and Banco Santander SA, that earned similar fees for sending customers’ cash to the 70-year-old money manager.
“It’s mind-boggling that people like Tremont and Fairfield Greenwich had been doing this for so long,” said Brad Alford, who runs Alpha Capital Management LLC in Atlanta, which helps clients choose hedge funds. “It’s the job of these funds of funds to be doing due diligence. That’s why they get paid.”
I've seen some around the internets ask why people would invest in a fund which did little other than invest in another fund and take a cut. The only reason is because you're paying them to do due diligence. Which they weren't because Madoff's investment strategy was the "secret magic box" that no one was allowed to look inside. Nice work!!
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Well, you know, except everyone.
The great $700 billion theft.
But at the last minute, the Bush administration insisted on a one-sentence change to the provision, congressional aides said. The change stipulated that the penalty would apply only to firms that received bailout funds by selling troubled assets to the government in an auction, which was the way the Treasury Department had said it planned to use the money.
Now, however, the small change looks more like a giant loophole, according to lawmakers and legal experts. In a reversal, the Bush administration has not used auctions for any of the $335 billion committed so far from the rescue package, nor does it plan to use them in the future. Lawmakers and legal experts say the change has effectively repealed the only enforcement mechanism in the law dealing with lavish pay for top executives.
The great $700 billion theft.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
First, Do Evil
Fuckers
The open internets was a bizarre historical accident, necessary to defend and unlikely to be repeated. People always object when I say this, but they're wrong.
The celebrated openness of the Internet -- network providers are not supposed to give preferential treatment to any traffic -- is quietly losing powerful defenders.
Google Inc. has approached major cable and phone companies that carry Internet traffic with a proposal to create a fast lane for its own content, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Google has traditionally been one of the loudest advocates of equal network access for all content providers.
The open internets was a bizarre historical accident, necessary to defend and unlikely to be repeated. People always object when I say this, but they're wrong.
No Mo Money
All going bad.
With unemployment claims reaching their highest levels in decades, states are running out of money to pay benefits, and some are turning to the federal government for loans or increasing taxes on businesses to make the payments.
Thirty states are at risk of having the funds that pay out unemployment benefits become insolvent over the next few months, according to the National Association of State Workforce Agencies. Funds in two states, Indiana and Michigan, have already dried up, and both states are borrowing from the federal government to make payments to the unemployed.
At Least
Given the list that's already out, I'm guessing $50 billion isn't going to to be the full amount EATED by Madoff. Might have notionally been a fund with $50 billion in assets, but he'd been taking money from new investors and giving it to existing ones so who knows just how many people got screwed.
And someone wrote me to point out that there's a lot of collateral damage here. Charitable foundations and similar are being destroyed by this and laying off workers.
And someone wrote me to point out that there's a lot of collateral damage here. Charitable foundations and similar are being destroyed by this and laying off workers.
The Whole Thing Has Been A Giant Ponzi Scheme
Josh is right that there's less difference between the Madoff case and the financial sector generally over the past few years than will generally be acknowledged. There are differences, especially in that it was a kind of decentralized Ponzi scheme within and between organizations, and no one person could have stopped it or given up the game. But for years the housing, mortgage, mortgage backed securities, and everyone's favorite, the synthetic MBS, markets all depended on getting new suckers to throw cash into the system. And it wasn't as if nobody noticed.
The question we've been asking for some time is who gets left holding the bag. Unsurprisingly, it'll largely be taxpayers. Apparently we're the ultimate suckers!
The question we've been asking for some time is who gets left holding the bag. Unsurprisingly, it'll largely be taxpayers. Apparently we're the ultimate suckers!
None Of Those Things Are Actually True
80 years or so from now when they finally get around to teaching this time period in high school, I really do wonder how they'll try to answer that simple unanswerable question... why did we invade Iraq?
BAGHDAD, Dec. 14 -- Arriving in Baghdad today for a farewell visit, President Bush staunchly defended a war that has taken far more time, money and lives than anticipated, saying the conflict "has not been easy" but was necessary for U.S. security, Iraqi stability and "world peace."
Smash and Destroy
I'm so old I can remember Gray Davis's budget deficit made him a laughingstock in the national press, which also kept just making up exaggerated numbers.
California is bleeding Republican red as the state's minority party tries to squeeze a spending cap and pro-business policies from fiscal chaos.
Badly outnumbered and often ignored by the Democratic-dominated Legislature, the GOP is not getting sand kicked in its face these days.
California is hurtling toward a financial abyss, projecting a $40 billion shortfall by July 2010, and no deal can be struck without at least three Republican votes in both the Assembly and Senate.
Still Riding
Variety of articles about how people mass transit ridership is still up despite falling gas prices. In the past this pattern hasn't held up, with people returning to their cars once prices fell.
Now if only more places wouldencourage allow the kind of development which would allow people to get away from the one car needed for every 16+ household member situation that exists in so many places in the country.
Now if only more places would
Boring Stuff
As I suggested before, much of any stimulus bill would likely be first focused on boring stuff like deferred maintenance. We need a massive public works project for its own sake - one that isn't meant to be a short run stimulus - but we need the stimulus too.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
If it's Sunday, it still sucks.
- •“Fox News Sunday,” — Guests: Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Michigan Democrat; Sen. Bob Corker, Tennessee Republican.
•NBC’s “Meet the Press,” — Guest: Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan; Illinois Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn, Democrat; Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Democrat; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Republican; former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina; Wal-Mart President & CEO Lee Scott; Google CEO Eric Schmidt.
•ABC’s “This Week,” — Guest: Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican.
•CBS’ “Face the Nation,” — Guests: Sen. Carl Levin, Michigan Democrat; Sen. Bob Corker, Tennessee Republican; Sen. Sherrod Brown, Ohio Democrat; Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Democrat; Michael Eric Dyson, sociology professor at Georgetown University.
•CNN’s“Late Edition,” 10 a.m. — Guests: Sen. John Ensign, Nevada Republican; Sen. Bob Casey, Pennsylvania Democrat; Gene Sperling, former Hillary Clinton economic adviser; Ron Gettelfinger, president of United Auto Workers.
If it's Sunday, it still sucks.
No Combat Troops
Little item on the front page of the NYT:
Bumiller on page 28.
The top American commander in Iraq said some America troops would remain in a support role in cities past a summer 2009 deadlime.
Bumiller on page 28.