Tuesday, March 31, 2009
City Living
My observation of the Philly housing market is that yes, some people bought for absurd prices, and more than that plenty of flippers thought they might be able to charge absurd prices, but in center city and nearby at least prices have been relatively stable.
For those wishing to choose a bias, it's not "my house is worth what I paid for it!!!" but rather "people love living in an urban hellhole."
DC too.
For those wishing to choose a bias, it's not "my house is worth what I paid for it!!!" but rather "people love living in an urban hellhole."
DC too.
Everybody Hates Yurp
It is bizarre how every single little bit of the wingnut mindset gets projected onto the entire country.
An image from hell.
An image from hell.
Tedisco in NY20: Panic?
Hilarious, via FDL:
... adding, the polls, of course, are still open. Amazing.
Republican Jim Tedisco may be running for the House in a district where Republicans outnumber Democratic voters by some 70,000, but with the polls closing in a matter of hours, Tedisco’s campaign is prepping for a loss.
An electoral loss, anyway.
The Dutchess County Clerk’s Office has confirmed to FDL that Tedisco’s people have filed an ex parte motion in order, the effect of which would be to investigate and overturn today’s election results, should the outcome not be to Republicans’ liking.
... adding, the polls, of course, are still open. Amazing.
78%
County is drowning.
60% of those holding mortgages.
There's nowhere tougher in America to be paying a mortgage than Yuba County, says a new lending industry study released Monday.
Nearly 78 percent of the county's mortgage debt is tied to houses that have lost value and are worth less than what's owed on them, said New Jersey-based SMR Research in its yearly "Giants of the Mortgage Industry" study.
60% of those holding mortgages.
Testify!
A quality rant from Athenae.
Too often what's left out of the conversation about newspaper declines is the simple fact that owners have made some really shitty business decisions. I don't mean in terms of failing to innovate or whatever, I mean basic financial decisions. In the worst cases they've just looted the place, in other cases they've taken on unsustainable amounts of debt.
I certainly think that it's true that the business model for print journalism is threatened, but in some cases it's simply the businesses that are threatened because they were poorly run.
Too often what's left out of the conversation about newspaper declines is the simple fact that owners have made some really shitty business decisions. I don't mean in terms of failing to innovate or whatever, I mean basic financial decisions. In the worst cases they've just looted the place, in other cases they've taken on unsustainable amounts of debt.
I certainly think that it's true that the business model for print journalism is threatened, but in some cases it's simply the businesses that are threatened because they were poorly run.
Kinda Missing The Point
High density development can have an appeal because it can support a desirable walkable neighborhood. Without that, not so much appeal.
A local equivalent is Waterfront Square, condo towers which aren't integrated with local neighborhoods. I have no idea why anyone would want to live in them. Downsides of urban living without the positives.
A local equivalent is Waterfront Square, condo towers which aren't integrated with local neighborhoods. I have no idea why anyone would want to live in them. Downsides of urban living without the positives.
Better Information
I've said before that transit agencies should elevate certain high frequency bus routes and publicize them more widely. A simple and obvious way to do this is to include them on the standard rail/subway maps.
Still Falling
I really don't think the people in charge (Obama, Larry, Timmeh) understand the reality of the economic situation. It isn't about turning the machines back on.
I have no idea why pumping massive amounts of money into a banking sector which proved that it was horribly bad at its supposed role - allocating capital efficiently - is a good idea. Who are they supposed to lend to?
There's still a big wave of ARM resets* coming, and the CRE implosion has just begun.
*Regarding ARM resets, some suggest this won't be a problem because interests rates are so low. But the issue is option ARMS ("pick a payment!") loans, where people have been making interest-only or even neg-am payments on the loans.
March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell 19 percent in January from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as demand plummeted and foreclosures rose.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index’s decrease was more than forecast and compares with an 18.6 percent decrease in December. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year- over-year records began in 2001.
I have no idea why pumping massive amounts of money into a banking sector which proved that it was horribly bad at its supposed role - allocating capital efficiently - is a good idea. Who are they supposed to lend to?
There's still a big wave of ARM resets* coming, and the CRE implosion has just begun.
*Regarding ARM resets, some suggest this won't be a problem because interests rates are so low. But the issue is option ARMS ("pick a payment!") loans, where people have been making interest-only or even neg-am payments on the loans.
Strange Times
Mendota:
Welcome to life in Mendota — the unemployment capital of California. With a 41 percent jobless rate, the town's social fabric is tearing at the seams. Alcoholism and crime are on the rise. To save money, some mothers wash and re-use disposable diapers. Unemployed men with nothing to do wander the streets and sit on benches.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Sanity
Suck on this, panty sniffer.
ALLENTOWN, Pa. - A federal judge on Monday temporarily blocked a prosecutor from filing child pornography charges against three northeastern Pennsylvania teenagers who appeared in racy photos that turned up on classmates' cell phones.
U.S. District Judge James Munley ruled against Wyoming County District Attorney George Skumanick Jr., who has threatened to pursue felony charges against the girls unless they agree to participate in a five-week after-school program.
One picture showed two of the girls in their bras. The second photo showed another girl just out of the shower and topless, with a towel wrapped around her waist.
Even More Thread
Now I am drinking Belgian beer and am about to be served dinner. Talk amongst yourselves.
They Write Letters
Philly Guild writes to its members:
Dear Guild member,
Three months after Philadelphia Newspapers pressured the Guild and its other unions to postpone a $25 raise, its three most senior executives received a total of $650,000 in bonuses, Philadelphia magazine reported over the weekend. In December, Brian Tierney, Philadelphia Media Holdings CEO, received a holiday bonus of $350,000, while Daily News Publisher Mark Frisby and Richard Thayer, vice president of finance, both received payments of $150,000 the magazine reports. PMH Chairman Bruce Toll confirmed the bonuses for the magazine. The Guild has learned that other senior managers also received year-end bonuses and is working to uncover more information.
Surely by December PMH knew the company would soon declare bankruptcy, as it did last month, so the year-end cash rewards are shocking.
Last summer your Guild officers stood before the membership and encouraged members to vote to delay a $25 raise we had bargained in 2006. The company laid out a dire financial picture which painted any savings as vital to the future of the organization. We asked you to sacrifice what you had earned in the belief that it was for the good of the company. Clearly we were more concerned about the company than the senior management who rewarded themselves with increases totaling more than $400,000 (The three agreed last month in bankruptcy court to roll their salaries back) and as we have now learned, cash bonuses of at least $650,000.
Yelling At Clouds
I do wish someone would tell the celebrity political press that John McCain lost the election. Actually, he got creamed. By Barack Hussein Obama.
Deep Thought
We're the awesomest country in the history of the universe, and the act of building a simple subway tunnel is thought to be practically unfathomably expensive.
The Mall Is Flat
Ruh-roh.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. mall owner General Growth Properties Inc GGP.N, which is struggling to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection, on Monday said a plan to defray payment on five series of bonds failed to secure sufficient bondholder support, sending its stock down as much as 10 percent.
The second largest U.S. mall owner said that after two extensions it still had not garnered enough support from holders of $2.25 billion of bonds of Rouse Cos, the developer General Growth bought in 2004.
Number 3
For years we were ruled by moral monsters, and only a few, like Froomkin, will even acknowledge the facts.
Walking Away
Banks are apparently starting to walk away from foreclosed properties, though often not before people move out thinking they've lost their homes only to discover that their now vandalized and worthless properties are still theirs.
The free market is a remarkable thing.
The free market is a remarkable thing.
The Audience
Living in the mirror universe of a place like Indiana, I get what the "moderates" might be trying to do. It isn't really about reaching voters directly, it's about reaching the elite intermediaries - local press and similar - and getting them to sell this storyline. Here in PA, Arlen Specter doesn't need to be a moderate Republican in any meaningful way, he just has to provide a plausible storyline to the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board so they can sell him to voters as one. Whether they're in on the con or just too stupid to notice I don't know.
What's The Point Of Mass Transit
I do think the popular conception of mass transit is slowly changing. It isn't simply a way to get people from A to B, from population centers to employment centers, but instead a way to reshape development patterns.
It's generally a bad idea to run train lines down highway median strips as it doesn't do much to change land use patterns.
NJ-1 would run down the median of Route 42 and the Atlantic City Expressway to Williamstown. NJ-2 would run down the median of Route 55 to Glassboro. Both of these alignments may or may not relieve congestion along these highways, but they would almost certainly have another, less desirable impact -- increasing pressure to convert open space and fertile farmland into sprawling development, much of it in environmentally sensitive areas.
Only NJ-3, which would run along an established rail line through the center of several historic Gloucester County towns, along the Conrail right-of-way, would be a win-win for the region and its residents. Not only would this routing relieve traffic congestion on area highways, but it would promote the revitalization of these historic centers by encouraging walkable, mixed-use development around the stations.
It's generally a bad idea to run train lines down highway median strips as it doesn't do much to change land use patterns.
Shorter Dick Polman
Thank God Obama is listening to Max Boot, William Kristol, and Robert Kagan, instead of a bunch of dirty fucking hippies.
Tough Love
I don't have strong opinions about what should be done about the US auto industry, but apparently the real economy is less important than the paper one.
Just who are the banksters supposed to lend to?
Just who are the banksters supposed to lend to?
Drug War
So I work my through this article about the terrifying drug wars in Mexico, part of a series. It struck me, in a previous article, that they never mentioned what drug was involved. This time, in the third to last paragraph, in a long piece, they do, obliquely:
One of Mr. Calderón’s predecessors, Mr. Zedillo, recently joined two other former heads of state from Latin America in pushing for a complete rethinking of the drug war, including the legalization of marijuana, which is considered the top revenue generator for Mexican drug cartels.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Really Awesome Public Policy
A bunch of people are going to lose their jobs probably.
Starting Monday, St. Louis' mass transit system will reduce service radically. The service area for this multibillion-dollar regional asset will shrink by two thirds, literally overnight.
The Metro transit agency faces an operating deficit of $45 million this year, which is expected to reach $50 million next year. Nearly one in every four of its 2,300 employees will be laid off in the coming weeks. Many highly skilled and productive employees already are being poached by transit systems in other regions.
Service will end at 2,300 of the 9,000 bus stops and shelters on Missouri's side of the system; service in Illinois, which is fully funded, won't be affected. A bus fleet of 320 will shrink to about 140. MetroLink light rail riders will see one-third fewer trains during rush hour. Call-A-Ride service for the disabled will be slashed.
The Little Guy
I don't think anything about David Gregory's background, but we do know that at this point in his life he is a well paid teevee personality. And as a teevee personality he knows his job is not precisely what those of us who read the endless tributes to the majesty of American Journalism might think it is. Part of his job is to play a role, and following in the footsteps of masters like Brian Williams, he knows he must as often as possible identify with the imagined "little guy" despite the fact that his current wealth and status makes him utterly immune from ill effects of an economic downturn.
Socialize The Losses
Privatize the "profits."
The Shrill One
Boehlert's right that Krugman's getting much more attention now than he did in the Bush years, though I still find it refreshing that the self-described establishment is finally acknowledging that a Democratic president actually has criticism from the left which doesn't just come from (in their eyes) crazy people.
Though I haven't even read the article yet, admittedly.
Though I haven't even read the article yet, admittedly.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
I hope John McCain gives us some mavericky straight talk.
Face the Nation President Obama.
Meet the Press The economy: Secretary of the Treasury Timothy F. Geithner. The economy; U.S. foreign policy: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Moderator David Gregory.
This Week With George Stephanopoulos The economy: Secretary of the Treasury Timothy F. Geithner. Panel: Matthew Dowd; Paul Krugman, the New York Times; Cokie Roberts; George Will.
Fox News Sunday With Chris Wallace Afghanistan: Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates. G20 Summit: Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Panel: Bill Sammon; Nina Easton; William Kristol; Juan Williams.
I hope John McCain gives us some mavericky straight talk.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Elite 8 thread
I've watched almost none of it, filled out no brackets, but apparently other people are doing both.
WATB
Matt Taibbi has more to say about AIG. In particular, about DeSantis. Pulls no punches.
DeSantis has a few major points. They include: 1) I had nothing to do with my boss Joe Cassano's toxic credit default swaps portfolio, and only a handful of people in our unit did; 2) I didn't even know anything about them; 3) I could have left AIG for a better job several times last year; 4) but I didn't, staying out of a sense of duty to my poor, beleaguered firm, only to find out in the end that; 5) I would be betrayed by AIG senior management, who promised we would be rewarded for staying, but then went back on their word when they folded in highly cowardly fashion in the face of an angry and stupid populist mob.
I have a few responses to those points. They are 1) Bullshit; 2) bullshit; 3) bullshit, plus of course; 4) bullshit. Lastly, there is 5) Boo-Fucking-Hoo. You dog.
Policy
It's true that the national political press doesn't do policy, except at times to evaluate it against some imaginary response by "the public" which is based on Villager conventional wisdom of what the stupid fucking rubes "public" think about any particular issue. Though when the imaginary public's views go against elite Villager conventional wisdom about policy that's tossed out in favor of what the Very Serious People think.
Manhattan Or Cul De Sac
Reading the comments over at Matt's place it's interesting that some people see those two pictures and think it's a comparison of a dense urban neighborhood like mine and a suburb. The pictures aren't really making any density comparison, they're simply comparing road layouts. And, roughly, it's a comparison between older streetcar suburbs and similar with newer (last 30 years or so) development.
It's not about density, it's just about whether you're building single access point neighborhoods or not.
It's not about density, it's just about whether you're building single access point neighborhoods or not.
And Traffic
Just to add to this post, the additional thing is that by forcing all traffic onto the main road there's a potential for traffic problems. Even if an area doesn't get overdeveloped, when there's essentially only one through road, there's no release valve in the event of an accident or similar.
Morning Thread
by Molly Ivors
Have I ever mentioned that Thers and I live on diametrically opposed schedules?
Have I ever mentioned that Thers and I live on diametrically opposed schedules?
Friday, March 27, 2009
Grim Forecast
I'd put the peak at the higher end for California, but what the hell do I know.
California's unemployment rate will soar to between 12 percent and 15 percent by next spring and remain in the double digits until at least the beginning of 2012, according to forecasts released by two teams of University of California economists.
Acquitted
Good.
This was panty sniffer Phill Kline's project originally.
WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Jurors have acquitted one of the nation's few late-term abortion providers of violating Kansas law requiring an independent second opinion for the procedure.
Dr. George Tiller was found not guilty Friday of 19 misdemeanor charges stemming from some abortions he performed at his Wichita clinic in 2003.
This was panty sniffer Phill Kline's project originally.
Gang of Clowns
I'm sure some of them are very nice and very smart, but I generally feel more than a little bit embarrassed for them when I see senators talk, on CSPAN or elsewhere. The lack of awareness that their odd little rhetorical stylings and absurd self-regard make them look like buffoons to just about everyone is frightening.
Freaks
As I wrote before, I think Obama has a mix of press working for him and against him. On the one hand you have the deferential access journalism, and on the other hand you have the daily freak show which almost always works against Democrats as it's often directed by America's Assignment Editor, Matt Drudge.
Occasionally the freak show is so stupid that one begins to doubt if these journalists are sentient.
Occasionally the freak show is so stupid that one begins to doubt if these journalists are sentient.
Politics Is Weird
I guess it's possible George Voinovich wants to see a pile of money in flames before he's willing to vote for what's necessary, but that's pretty weird.
Curb Cuts And Garages
Inga Saffron continues my war on rowhouse garages.
As individuals, most would tell you - quite rightly - that street-front garages mess up the rhythms of the city's colonial grid. When a ground-floor room is replaced with a windowless garage door, it takes the human eye off the street. The accompanying driveway makes life more treacherous for pedestrians.
On top of all that, front garages reduce the supply of parking available for everyone else, by transferring a parking space from the public realm of the street to the private enclave of the garage. It seems rather selfish, when damage could be minimized by locating the parking behind the houses or in clusters.
Communist
I don't claim perfect foresight about all of this stuff. I knew the housing bubble was unsustainable, though I didn't claim to know if it would pop. I knew banks were giving out loans which were bad for the people who were getting them, but I didn't know that lending standards had gotten so bad that "ability to repay" had stopped being a real consideration. And I didn't, until later, know about the crazy financial asset voodoo which was going on.
Greg Mitchell points me to this clip of Jim Cramer calling Andrew Cuomo a communist in 2007. While this basic conversation never was as mainstream as other debates, it's important to remember that people who suggested there was a housing bubble were generally treated like they were crazy, and mainstream news outlets generally turned to people in the real estate profession for their wisdom about this subject.
Greg Mitchell points me to this clip of Jim Cramer calling Andrew Cuomo a communist in 2007. While this basic conversation never was as mainstream as other debates, it's important to remember that people who suggested there was a housing bubble were generally treated like they were crazy, and mainstream news outlets generally turned to people in the real estate profession for their wisdom about this subject.
Morning Thread
Up for an hour and I got nothin'.
Oh, CNN's telling me that the banksters are really worried about changing the rules. Except that taking all the free government money rule, of course.
Oh, CNN's telling me that the banksters are really worried about changing the rules. Except that taking all the free government money rule, of course.
Morning Thread
Actual "graph" from GOP Budget plan pamplet -- the substantive part:
They left out "Jesus" and "Profit".
Which is quite an oversight.
They left out "Jesus" and "Profit".
Which is quite an oversight.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Left Out
Not a criticism of her, but it's quite fascinating that the actual meat in Tumulty's story about Max Baucus was left on the cutting room floor.
That's the part of her story which is actually... substantive and newsy.
That's the part of her story which is actually... substantive and newsy.
I Thought They Were Good At This Stuff
It's been sort of weird watching the Republicans flail about. Those of us who began our political lives in the 90s have, I think, been assuming that if there's one thing the Republicans know how to do was be an opposition party. And now, despite a media willing to put most of their horseshit into the discourse, they've been really really bad at it so far.
Kids Today
And the crap they deal with.
ALLENTOWN, Pa. (AP) -- The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has overturned likely hundreds of juvenile convictions issued by a corrupt judge.
...
Federal prosecutors charged Ciavarella and another judge with taking $2.6 million in payoffs to put juvenile offenders in private lockups.
Sexting
All of this stuff is about adult men being completely freaked out about any expression of teen female sexuality. Simple nudity - or just being less than fully clothed - isn't pornography by any reasonable definition. More than that, in the age of omnipresent digitial cameras and webcams, this stuff is just going to be part of "normal" teen behavior. Like plenty of such behavior it isn't entirely unproblematic, but nor should it be prosecuted under child pornography laws.
...and the absurdity goes on.
...and the absurdity goes on.
Because Kicking Around Joe Lieberman Isn't As Fun As It Used To Be
I was going to ask what exactly the point of a congressional group which has taken no positions on anything was, but then I realized the answer was "getting on the teevee and having David Broder say nice things about me."
Still, if Evan Bayh wants to walk around town with a "Kick Me" sign on his back I guess he's free to do so.
Still, if Evan Bayh wants to walk around town with a "Kick Me" sign on his back I guess he's free to do so.
Death Threats
Any time the great unwashed get a bit uppity, the powerful start whining about death threats. Violence and threats of violence are bad things without justification, but there's a big difference between receiving a nasty email and whining about it and genuinely feeling threatened. Like David Rees I used to get plenty of nasty emails (not so much recently), though I wouldn't say I've ever actually gotten something which was an actual threat ("I hope you die" is not the same as "I'm going to find you and kill you.") If any AIG employees have reason to and genuinely feel that their safety is threatened then I feel for them, but I'm a bit skeptical that there's all that much of that.
And a wee bit of advice: if you get an actual threat, call your friendly neighborhood FBI. They'll take care of it!
And a wee bit of advice: if you get an actual threat, call your friendly neighborhood FBI. They'll take care of it!
Connectivity
This is a sensible move by Virginia. A big change in suburban development in recent decades was moving from a world where developments at least had some connectivity through smaller through roads to other places to a world where most new developments basically had single access to the main road. While such development has certain desirable features for people, when every neighborhood is built like that it's problematic.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still deep into holy crap territory.
The economy shrank at a 6.3 percent pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, and probably isn't doing much better now.
The Commerce Department on Thursday reported that the economy was sinking a bit faster than the 6.2 percent annualized drop for the October-December quarter estimated a month ago.
And the pain has persisted in the current quarter. New claims for unemployment benefits last week rose to a seasonally adjusted 652,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 644,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The total number of people claiming benefits jumped to 5.56 million, higher than economists' projections of 5.48 million, and a ninth straight record-high.
NTodd is (ewwwwww) Right
This hurts me more than it hurts you, but NTodd is right. The governor of Vermont is poised to deal a blow to the rights of gays and lesbians to be, you know, treated as equal citizens under the law.
He should be. "I've sent him an e-mail and will call 802 828-3333 (toll-free in VT only: 800 649-6825) as well to register my anger. I'm actually being respectful and simply noting that because of this I will be applying my 2008 campaign experience to helping Democrat Deb Markowitz unseating him next election."
This is an issue for Vermont residents of conscience, of course, but also for all Americans who cherish the principle of equal rights. Be polite, but firm. Go here to contact the Vermont governor.
Also what Scott said.
Our Governor has said he will veto S.115, which would guarantee the rights for ALL to marry. No matter what state you live in, please let Jim Does Less know that he is a coward. We'll most likely (hopefully) muster an override, but he should still be shamed.
He should be. "I've sent him an e-mail and will call 802 828-3333 (toll-free in VT only: 800 649-6825) as well to register my anger. I'm actually being respectful and simply noting that because of this I will be applying my 2008 campaign experience to helping Democrat Deb Markowitz unseating him next election."
This is an issue for Vermont residents of conscience, of course, but also for all Americans who cherish the principle of equal rights. Be polite, but firm. Go here to contact the Vermont governor.
Also what Scott said.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Bushvilles
NYT:
- Like a dozen or so other cities across the nation, Fresno is dealing with an unhappy déjà vu: the arrival of modern-day Hoovervilles, illegal encampments of homeless people that are reminiscent, on a far smaller scale, of Depression-era shanty towns. At his news conference on Tuesday night, President Obama was asked directly about the tent cities and responded by saying that it was “not acceptable for children and families to be without a roof over their heads in a country as wealthy as ours.”While encampments and street living have always been a part of the landscape in big cities like Los Angeles and New York, these new tent cities have taken root — or grown from smaller enclaves of the homeless as more people lose jobs and housing — in such disparate places as Nashville, Olympia, Wash., and St. Petersburg, Fla.
Public Options
I disagree with Ezra - given the reality of our political system the only health care plan which has any chance of being good long term is once which includes a good public option. It's not that I think the only good system is one with a public option, it's that the only system which has a chance of not being corrupted and looted is one with a viable public option.
Boo
A city like New York needs a decent and affordable comprehensive mass transit system to exist in its current form. Going backwards by increasing fares and cutting service is a bad idea, especially now.
Deep Thought
I'm going to rename this "The Practical Blog" then everything I write will be, by definition, practical and the best way to achieve practical things.
Shitpile
California:
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- California home prices dropped 41 percent last month from a year earlier, more than double the U.S. decline, as surging foreclosures drove down values, the state Association of Realtors said today.
The median price for an existing, single-family detached home in California sank to $247,590 in February from $418,260 a year earlier, the Los Angeles-based group said in a statement. The U.S. median price fell 16 percent during the same period, the second-biggest drop on record, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Pecking Order
I was talking with someone the other day about how when faced with the oncoming hordes on the internets, journalists could've clung to knowledge and expertise or they could've clung to authority as their raison d'etre. The Villager press, at least, decided that authority (as in, we're the New York Fucking Times and you're not) was the important thing to cling to.
Good luck with that.
Good luck with that.
Dear Jake
You almost had me until "payment from A.I.G. amounting to $742,006.40, after taxes." Enjoy your vacation, and good luck finding a new job.
Love,
Atrios.
Love,
Atrios.
Moderate Gibberish
It is gibberish, as it always has been, but it's also gibberish that the Villagers luuuuuv.
Retrofitting The Burbs
These kinds of land use changes - increasing density around transit stops - are the kinds of things which should be happening everywhere appropriate. Still, it's hard to be too optimistic that it's possible to graft a reasonably walkable community on top of what was meant to be car heaven.
All The Really Cool Kids Are Bored
It seems there comes a time in the lives of most political reporters where they decide that the thing they ostensibly cover - politics, policy - is just SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORING.
You're an inspiration to all of your laid of colleagues, Andrew.
You're an inspiration to all of your laid of colleagues, Andrew.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Deep Thought
One would've thought that buying 80% of AIG suggests that the federal government had, in some sense, the ability to take over AIG.
Deep Thought
The best part about my "job" is definitely the 300 or so emails I look forward to reading every time I leave the house.
And If They Can Get Private Capital
Why don't they?
A worrying thing about all of this is that there's no exit strategy either from the Fed or Treasury side. Not sure how the government and the banksters are going to ever have a divorce.
A worrying thing about all of this is that there's no exit strategy either from the Fed or Treasury side. Not sure how the government and the banksters are going to ever have a divorce.
Crap
The issue isn't that they're worthless, the issue is that they aren't worth nearly as much as the financial institutions are pretending they're worth. Sellers have a huge incentive to not sell at lower prices because lower prices will potentially reveal that they're insolvent/essentially bankrupt. As for this comment (crap, heading into Someone On The Internet Is Wrong territory), the reason that the big players can make money while the gov't loses money is because of the no recourse loans, and the asymmetric upside/downside of the Geithner plan. They're buying shitpile mostly with gov't loans, and if there's money to be made they and the gov't benefit. But if the asset is shit, they don't have to pay back the loan, just hand over the asset. All this encourages institutions to overpay, so we get to pretend shitpile isn't so shitty until the gov't eats the losses.
Bye Bye
Bank of America's dirty fucking hippie, who said bad things about banks and Timmeh's plan yesterday, is leaving his job.
Trojan
Sadly, I agree with Yves that the pleasing sounding noises about getting more authority to deal with too big to fail institutions is at best just a bit of noise to try to soothe critics and at worst just a desire for more authority to bail out the banksters.
Core
I used to be much more supportive of bringing transit to the unserved masses, but now I also am much more in favor of expanding service in places that are more well-suited for it. Though, frankly, as much as I love my SUPERTRAINS in plenty of places improved land use policies are actually much more important than service expansion. Or, at least, improved land use policies could allow much better use of existing transit routes.
Optimism
Krugman expresses a tiny bit of optimism that they're just pretending to be fools.
I know it's accepted conventional wisdom that Larry Summers is a very smart guy, but that doesn't make it true.
I know it's accepted conventional wisdom that Larry Summers is a very smart guy, but that doesn't make it true.
Robbery
Stiglitz:
I think he's wrong that anger will matter. The Banksters own the country now.
The U.S. government is basically using the taxpayer to guarantee against downside risk on the value of these assets, while giving the upside, or potential profits, to private investors, he said.
"Quite frankly, this amounts to robbery of the American people. I don't think it's going to work because I think there'll be a lot of anger about putting the losses so much on the shoulder of the American taxpayer."
I think he's wrong that anger will matter. The Banksters own the country now.
Morning Thread
FoxNews talking head, all class.
Well maybe not, but it rhymes with class.
UPDATE: Oh dear, dear, someone has posted an accurate Wiki entry. Take screenshots while you can.
Well maybe not, but it rhymes with class.
UPDATE: Oh dear, dear, someone has posted an accurate Wiki entry. Take screenshots while you can.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Adversarial
While Glenn's of course right that in general the idea that national Village reporters have a strongly adversarial relationship with the government is absurd at least in terms of what most of us think that should mean, I also think there is one sense in which it's true. There is an ongoing competition about just who is in charge of the whole show.
As for Obama and the press, I think it's been a weird mix so far. On one hand you get the Matt Drudge Rules Their World and Republicans Drive The Freak Show Story Of The Day stuff which obviously isn't exactly friendly, but on the other you've had the kind of deference to and privileging of anonymous administration sources which we had under Bush which is good for Obama though certainly not necessarily good in a general sense, except maybe as some counterweight to the Freak Show crap.
As for Obama and the press, I think it's been a weird mix so far. On one hand you get the Matt Drudge Rules Their World and Republicans Drive The Freak Show Story Of The Day stuff which obviously isn't exactly friendly, but on the other you've had the kind of deference to and privileging of anonymous administration sources which we had under Bush which is good for Obama though certainly not necessarily good in a general sense, except maybe as some counterweight to the Freak Show crap.
DFH Alert
We've even infested Bank of America.
And, of course, the next big wave is just beginning.
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell bank stocks after they rallied 12 percent today because the Treasury Department’s plan to buy toxic assets won’t stop profits from dropping, Bank of America Corp.’s Richard Bernstein said.
Removing devalued loans and securities from banks’ balance sheets is a short-term solution that will delay the problem’s ultimate solution, which is bank takeovers, Bernstein said. The government won’t be able to inflate the prices banks receive for selling bad assets indefinitely, he added.
And, of course, the next big wave is just beginning.
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks, battered by record losses from the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, now must weather increasing loan delinquencies from owners of skyscrapers and shopping malls.
The country’s 10 biggest banks have $327.6 billion in commercial mortgages, which face a wave of defaults as office vacancies grow and retailers and casinos go bankrupt. A projected tripling in the default rate would result in losses of about 7 percent of total unpaid balances, according to estimates from analysts at research firm Reis Inc.
Overthinking
People are spending too much time trying to make sense of a plan which doesn't make much sense, certainly not as advertised.
The Geithner plan will:
1) Funnel more government money to the banksters.
2) Allow the banksters to pretend for a bit longer that their hunks of big shitpile aren't quite as shitty as we thought by using the bullshit price that this process comes up with, allowing too big to fail businesses to stay in business for a bit longer.
This might make sense if you truly believe the magic market you believe in fervently is genuinely incorrectly pricing the assets, perhaps because you genuinely believe that if you could turn around the economy fast enough that you could massively reduce expected foreclosures.
But if you genuinely believe that, I don't think you've been paying too much attention to just what's been going on in the housing market. I don't think you paid too much attention 3 years ago when you didn't realize that it didn't quite make sense that so many people could afford $700,000+ homes in Orange County. I don't think you paid too much attention to the degree of speculation and outright fraud that was happening in parts of the country.
The Geithner plan will:
1) Funnel more government money to the banksters.
2) Allow the banksters to pretend for a bit longer that their hunks of big shitpile aren't quite as shitty as we thought by using the bullshit price that this process comes up with, allowing too big to fail businesses to stay in business for a bit longer.
This might make sense if you truly believe the magic market you believe in fervently is genuinely incorrectly pricing the assets, perhaps because you genuinely believe that if you could turn around the economy fast enough that you could massively reduce expected foreclosures.
But if you genuinely believe that, I don't think you've been paying too much attention to just what's been going on in the housing market. I don't think you paid too much attention 3 years ago when you didn't realize that it didn't quite make sense that so many people could afford $700,000+ homes in Orange County. I don't think you paid too much attention to the degree of speculation and outright fraud that was happening in parts of the country.
Meanwhile
Over there:
BAGHAD — At least 25 people were killed and 45 were injured when a man walked into a tent of mourners and detonated himself in a town north of Baghdad on Monday evening. The death toll was expected to rise, hospital officials said.
Why Can't I Buy Big Shiptile With Taxpayer Money?
Jane:
Do you get a chance to make money in this "off-the-charts good" investing opportunity? Noooo, these loans that nobody has to pay back aren't being offered to the public.
Reminds Me Of The Bush Administration
It isn't as if "legacy" loans and assets were from 40 years ago. They're from like, you know, a year ago.
Not About Risk Aversion
I don't know if Obama people really believe this or if it's just their cover story. Either way, it's horseshit.
Depressingly Stupid
Ana Marie Cox Twitters from Timmeh's on the record, but not for broadcast briefing:
This is going to turn out very badly.
Geithner, BREAKING: "We are the United States of America, we are not Sweden."
This is going to turn out very badly.
Risk
One thing which stood out from Timmeh's WSJ op-ed (perfect place to leg hump the banksters) was this:
This story about "risk" is a pleasing one for people who imagine that the masters of the universe, or their managers, actually worry about such things. I don't know if Timmeh does or doesn't believe this, but it's absurd. The current financial crisis has nothing to do with how much risk the banksters were willing to take on. They didn't say: oh, well, I think we should tolerate a bit more risk now. They said: CA CHING CA CHING CA CHING CHING!
I have no idea if Timmeh is a fool or corrupt and I'm not sure which is better or worse. But the idea that all this came about simply because the banksters decided a bit of extra risk was good is an idea only a macro finance person could sanely entertain.
- While this crisis was caused by banks taking too much risk, the danger now is that they will take too little.
This story about "risk" is a pleasing one for people who imagine that the masters of the universe, or their managers, actually worry about such things. I don't know if Timmeh does or doesn't believe this, but it's absurd. The current financial crisis has nothing to do with how much risk the banksters were willing to take on. They didn't say: oh, well, I think we should tolerate a bit more risk now. They said: CA CHING CA CHING CA CHING CHING!
I have no idea if Timmeh is a fool or corrupt and I'm not sure which is better or worse. But the idea that all this came about simply because the banksters decided a bit of extra risk was good is an idea only a macro finance person could sanely entertain.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Banksters
This is such a good idea.
But some executives at private equity firms and hedge funds, who were briefed on the plan Sunday afternoon, are anxious about the recent uproar over millions of dollars in bonus payments made to executives of the American International Group.
Some of them have told administration officials that they would participate only if the government guaranteed that it would not set compensation limits on the firms, according to people briefed on the conversations. The executives also expressed worries about whether disclosure and governance rules could be added retroactively to the program by Congress, these people said.
Where The Unemployed Are
I think the colors chosen for this map actually make things "look" a bit better from a national perspective. It's important to realize the second lightest color goes all the way up to 10% unemployment. And then realize a non-trivial numbers of counties are seriously into holy fuck levels of unemplomeny. Data's from January.
Just A Thought
One (there are a few) reason that the market for Big Shitpile securities is "frozen" is that it would have been stupid to sell them at an actual market price when Timmeh's been promising that one day soon he'll scoop them up at above market prices.
Ponies In The Shitpile
Aside from setting up an overly complicated plan to try to disguise what they're really doing, the utility of the Geithner plan rests (or pretends to rest, not sure) on one fundamental premise: that Big Shitpile is greatly undervalued by "the market" and that these mortgage securities really have expected revenues which justify higher prices. One could have reasonably believed this months ago, I have no idea why anyone would believe this now. The housing bubble burst, and now recession is here. There's a lot of shit to be eaten, the question is who will eat it? Timmeh wants to make sure it's not the banksters.
What's The Goal?
Others have made this point in various ways, but if the goal is to bail out the banksters and keep the existing too big to fail financial order in place with the same cast of characters in charge, then all of this sounds like a cunning plan.
If the goal was really to get banks lending again they'd be funneling large sums of money to healthy (mostly smaller) financial institutions who actually made sensible choices over the last few years.
If the goal was really to get banks lending again they'd be funneling large sums of money to healthy (mostly smaller) financial institutions who actually made sensible choices over the last few years.
Uh, Brad?
Come on, you're better than this.
So if shitpile is really as shitty as I think it is, then without Timmeh's cunning plan it's Mad Max for all of us.
Actually, it's worse than that, it's "If Timmeh is wrong about the ponies in Big Shitpile then it's Mad Max for all of us."
Q: What if markets never recover, the assets are not fundamentally undervalued, and even when held to maturity the government doesn't make back its money?
A: Then we have worse things to worry about than government losses on TARP-program money--for we are then in a world in which the only things that have value are bottled water, sewing needles, and ammunition.
Actually, it's worse than that, it's "If Timmeh is wrong about the ponies in Big Shitpile then it's Mad Max for all of us."
Looters
Nice work.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Bank of America vaulted into the top 10 banks for insider lending last year with an increase of more than $358 million, much of it coming as credit markets froze and mounting financial calamity threatened the industry's survival.
For at least seven years, the bank's quarterly insider lending never exceeded $300 million and was often less than half that. But by the end of 2008, it had jumped to $624 million.
The dollar gain was the biggest of any bank in the country, a 135 percent hike from a year earlier. The average for all banks with insider loans was 5.7 percent.
The bank wouldn't say what drove the doubling. The bank's lead director, Temple Sloan, did not respond to two calls for comment.
Losing Money
I've read a few stories like this, too. It seems that for whatever reason (perhaps their perceived obligations in servicing agreements), banks are finding it preferable to sell foreclosed homes than to accept short sales. And they're selling the foreclosed homes in bulk to investors for less than what they could've gotten in the short sales.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
•"Face the Nation," CBS 3 10:30 a.m. Guests: Austan Goolsbee, member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass.; and Sen. Charles Grassley, R- Iowa.
•" Fox News Sunday," Guests: Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala.; Rep. Charles Rangel, D-N.Y.; and Pete Souza, White House photographer.
•"State of the Union," CNN Guests: Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Rep. Aaron Schock, R-Ill.; Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H; and Gov. Jennifer Granholm, D-Mich.
•"Meet the Press," Guests: New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Govs. Ed Rendell, D-Pa., and Arnold Schwarzenegger, R-Calif.
•"This Week," AGuests: Sens. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., and Susan Collins, R- Maine; Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind.; and Jared Bernstein, chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Deep Thought
So why can't I buy borrow money from the government to buy up a bunch of financial assets with no recourse loans?
How The Gamblers See Things
George Stephanopoulos from twitter:
Early read on Geithner plan from plugged in investment source asset managers he knows just won't play until sure WH can control Congress
Deep Thought
Anyone want to lend me $300 billion so I can go hit the roulette table in Atlantic City?
Not All Things Are Unknowable
As Jamie Galbraith says, there is actually information about the quality of the underlying mortgages and the expected future revenue stream. My guess is Timmeh is too scared to look behind the curtain.
Some Progress
I'd prefer newspapers just stop publishing horseshit altogether, but I think this not very polite demolishing of George Will in the Washington Post by Chris Mooney is at least a bit of progress.
A Cunning Plan
John Cole sums it up pretty well:
Larry Summers and Tim Geithner
-
The Illness- reckless and irresponsible betting led to huge losses
The Diagnosis- Insufficient gambling.
The Cure- a Trillion dollar stack of chips provided by the house.
The Prognosis- We are so screwed.
Larry Summers and Tim Geithner
Really Bad Ideas
Paulson kept proposing versions of this, but even he wasn't dumb enough. Sadly, Timmeh is.
As Dean says, if the reporting is accurate Timmeh is even dumber than I think he is.
Krugman has more. We are so screwed.
- The plan is likely to offer generous subsidies, in the form of low-interest loans, to coax investors to form partnerships with the government to buy toxic assets from banks. To help protect taxpayers, who would pay for the bulk of the purchases, the plan calls for auctioning assets to the highest bidders.
As Dean says, if the reporting is accurate Timmeh is even dumber than I think he is.
Krugman has more. We are so screwed.
Scapegoat
I actually don't think anyone should be treated like this, although it may be gratifying to read. Until you consider that the very people who made his actions possible are also responsible for the fact that many people are treated as badly or worse.
What this story says to me is not that Bernie Madoff is getting his just deserts, but that he either just made a really convenient scapegoat or somehow managed to piss off far greater Malefactors of great wealth. Or, more likely, both.
Signed,
Not Atrios
What this story says to me is not that Bernie Madoff is getting his just deserts, but that he either just made a really convenient scapegoat or somehow managed to piss off far greater Malefactors of great wealth. Or, more likely, both.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Friday, March 20, 2009
Sorry Alaska...
No education for you! "I said no to that bridge to the 21st century!"
Also, GOP grovelling fun! Tedisco latest to abase himself before the GOP Hutt.
Also, GOP grovelling fun! Tedisco latest to abase himself before the GOP Hutt.
The Mall Is Flat
And the empire crumbles.
NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) - A Louisiana court issued an order to seize and sell a General Growth Properties Inc GGP.N shopping center in a New Orleans suburb after the No. 2 U.S. mall owner failed to repay a $95 million loan, a Citigroup Inc (C.N) unit said on Friday.
The Oakwood Shopping Center in the town of Gretna is the fourth General Growth property seized in the last few days after the company failed to pay mortgage debt.
Driving Less
I'm curious if there are any trends in vehicle registrations as well, but my quick visit to the Google yielded no answers.
Less money also means fewer trips for shopping, entertainment and vacations.
Americans drove 7 billion fewer miles this January than in January the year before, according to a new report from the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Pennsylvanians drove 353 million fewer miles - a drop of about 4.5 percent.
Or We Could Just Do It
This is good from Bernanke...
And while I agree having procedure in place in advance, FDIC-like, is a good idea, it isn't clear why the lack of those procedures prevents us from "safely winding down a systemically important firm rather than keeping it operating." If Timmeh hadn't spent all those months chasing an idea that even Paulson knew was crap, we could have been doing just that.
"We have such a regime for insured depository institutions, but it is clear we need something similar for systemically important nonbank financial entities," he said in prepared remarks to a community bankers convention in Phoenix.
"Improved resolution procedures for these firms would help reduce the too-big-to-fail problem by giving the government the option of safely winding down a systemically important firm rather than keeping it operating," he said.
And while I agree having procedure in place in advance, FDIC-like, is a good idea, it isn't clear why the lack of those procedures prevents us from "safely winding down a systemically important firm rather than keeping it operating." If Timmeh hadn't spent all those months chasing an idea that even Paulson knew was crap, we could have been doing just that.
The End Of Blogging Is Nigh
I've long been amused about the fact that people are endlessly predicting that political blogging will stop because there won't be anything to write about anymore, as if it's purely an election or opposition oriented thing. Got this a lot around the time of the 2004 election.
The world doesn't just stop.
The world doesn't just stop.
And Why Don't We Bail These People Out?
I'm kidding, of course, but when you go from bailing out the system to bailing out the players that's where the logic takes you.
With the recession hammering retail sales, empty curbside spaces abound along the suburban Connecticut thoroughfare, known as the Rodeo Drive of the northeast, and “For Rent” signs decorate vacant storefronts. Ann Taylor, Banana Republic and Borders have all closed their Greenwich Avenue locations.
As banks and hedge funds cut jobs or close down in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, Greenwich merchants are suffering sales declines. Some stores are simply packing it in. Many are renegotiating rents, cutting inventory or offering cheaper products.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Thread
The only nostalgia I have for the Reagan administration is, that was when Jay Leno was funny.
They Are Bastards
Which is the important point.
The issue is that Timmeh and friends never distinguished between bailing out the system and bailing out the players. There was a way to do that, and they didn't do it.
The issue is that Timmeh and friends never distinguished between bailing out the system and bailing out the players. There was a way to do that, and they didn't do it.
Pay No Attention To The Crooks You're Handing Your Money To
Yves:
It's a system which has proven itself to be incompetent at best and extraordinarily corrupt at worst. There's no reason to prop up the people who did this.
Now I have said repeatedly the reason no one wants to pursue this line of action is that it is likely to reveal fraud, including at high levels (remember, post Sarbox CEOs and CFOs are now required to certify financial statements) and Team Obama does not want to do anything that would jeopardize confidence in the financial system. But this is completely wrong-headed; the reason there is no trust is the public at large sees considerable evidence of malfeasance. So the confidence is already gone, and an organized process to root out at least the worst instances of rot would be salutary.
It's a system which has proven itself to be incompetent at best and extraordinarily corrupt at worst. There's no reason to prop up the people who did this.
The Mall Is Flat
Almost over.
Moody's Investors Service lowered its ratings on debt-laden mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. (GGP) and some of its subsidiaries to C, the last stop before default, after the company let a $395 million bond payment pass without a payment earlier this week.
Protection Money
What it's always been about.
"Nobody is going to give it back and then stay," said one of the firm's employees. "If they give back the money, then they will walk. And they will walk into the arms of AIG's counterparties."
And Auto Parts Suppliers
CNBC says Treasury is going to guarantee payments from auto manufacturers to parts suppliers.
Kudlow is very upset.
Kudlow is very upset.
Jamie Galbraith Is Insane
Well, not really, but to the Villagers he is. In any case, his long Washington Monthly piece is worth reading.
Geithner’s banking plan would prolong the state of denial. It involves government guarantees of the bad assets, keeping current management in place and attempting to attract new private capital. (Conversion of preferred shares to equity, which may happen with Citigroup, conveys no powers that the government, as regulator, does not already have.) The idea is that one can fix the banks from the top down, by reestablishing markets for their bad securities. If the idea seems familiar, it is: Henry Paulson also pressed for this, to the point of winning congressional approval. But then he abandoned the idea. Why? He learned it could not work.
Class Identification
Timmeh:
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is making his move to Washington D.C. official and is selling his New York home. The English Tudor style home has a Larchmont, New York address but is actually in the village of Mamaroneck. The five-bedroom brick home was built in 1931 and sits on .18 acres. It is listed at $1.635 million.
Geithner, who already lives in Washington may not make much of a profit on his home due to falling real estate prices. The AP found the property records which show that Geithner and his wife, Carole Sonnenfeld Geithner paid $1.602 million for the home back in 2004.
Our Elite Monsters
As Scott says, the worldview of those who have entrusted themselves to rule over our elite discourse (fortunately its influence wanes), is truly ugly.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still in holy crap territory.
However, the number of people filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 646,000 in the week ended March 14, the Labor Department said, still at levels consistent with a distressed labor market. The prior week's number was revised up to 658,000 from 654,000.
...
The number of people staying on the benefits roll after drawing an initial week of aid surged 185,000 to 5.47 million in the week ended March 7, the latest week for which the data is available, from 5.29 million the previous week.
This was the highest on record and pushed the insured unemployment rate to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent the week before, the highest since June 1983.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Deep Thought
MSNBC is so liberal that they have two hours of original programming hosted by self-described liberals and three hours of original programming hosted by a conservative Republican.
Big Shitpile
Is Timmeh just going to keep shoveling cash until all the bets are paid off?
Liddy also offered lawmakers a hard number that's long been the subject of speculation. He said the face value of the transactions made by its Financial Products division that still haven't been unwound — or paid off — is $1.6 trillion. That dwarfs the roughly $100 billion of taxpayer money that flowed back through to investment banks, hedge funds and other financial players to pay off bad bets by AIG.
Oh Boy
AIG could be one giant of house of shit.
Thomas Gober, a former Mississippi state insurance examiner who has tracked fraud in the industry for 23 years and served previously as a consultant to the FBI and the Department of Justice, says he believes AIG's supposedly solvent insurance business may be at least as troubled as its reckless financial-products unit. Far from being "healthy," as state insurance regulators, ratings agencies and other experts have repeatedly described the insurance side, Gober calls it "a house of cards." Citing numerous documents he has obtained from state insurance regulators and obscure data buried in AIG's own 300-page annual reports, Gober argues that AIG's 71 interlocking domestic U.S. insurance subsidiaries are in hock to each other to an astonishing degree.
Most of this as-yet-undiscovered problem, Gober says, lies in the area of reinsurance, whereby one insurance company insures the liabilities of another so that the latter doesn't have to carry all the risk on its books. Most major insurance companies use outside firms to reinsure, but the vast majority of AIG's reinsurance contracts are negotiated internally among its affiliates, Gober says, and these internal balance sheets don't add up. The annual report of one major AIG subsidiary, American Home Assurance, shows that it owes $25 billion to another AIG affiliate, National Union Fire, Gober maintains. But American has only $22 billion of total invested assets on its balance sheet, he says, and it has issued another $22 billion in guarantees to the other companies. "The American Home assets and liquidity raise serious questions about their ability to make good on their promise to National Union Fire," says Gober, who has a consulting business devoted to protecting policyholders. Gober says there are numerous other examples of "cooked books" between AIG subsidiaries. Based on the state insurance regulators' own reports detailing unanswered questions, the tally in losses could be hundreds of billions of dollars more than AIG is now acknowledging.
Propping Up Corrupt Stakeholders
Harold Meyerson:
But Geithner's indulgence of bankers' indulgences is fast becoming the Obama administration's Achilles' heel. The AIG debacle is the latest in a series of bewildering Geithner decisions that threaten to undermine the administration's efforts to restart the economy. So long as it's Be Kind to Bankers Week at Treasury -- and we've had eight straight such weeks since the president was inaugurated -- American banking, and the economy it is supposed to serve, will remain paralyzed. The Geithner plan to restart the banks provides huge taxpayer subsidies to hedge funds, investment banks and private equity companies to buy the banks' toxic assets without really having to assume the risk. That's right -- the same Wall Street wizards who got us into this mess, using the same securitization techniques that built mountains of debt within a shadow financial system that remains unregulated, are the saviors whom Geithner has anointed to extricate us -- with our capital, not theirs -- from the mess that they created.
...
It's certainly not because Americans are dead set against bank nationalization: A Newsweek poll this month found that 56 percent of respondents supported it. Hell, Alan Greenspan supports it. But Geithner seems unable to imagine a banking system not run by its current leaders or owned by its current shareholders or engaged in the same arcane securitization practices that led to its collapse. An administration that is busily creating alternatives to our health-care system and our energy policies is being dragged down by a Treasury secretary who cannot conceive of an alternative to our catastrophic system of banking.
Being Wrong
Is the best way to get ahead in this world.
Heckuva job.
Lewis Alexander, who has been at Citigroup since 1999 and before that worked at the Federal Reserve, will head to the Treasury "to work on domestic financial issues," said the Citigroup memo, which was sent Tuesday.
...
Mr. Alexander's role as Citigroup's chief economist didn't entail significant management responsibilities. But his optimistic economic forecasts colored executives' views that the U.S. was unlikely to face a prolonged slump.
"I think that's not going to spill over more broadly into the economy, and so I think we're going to have a normal kind of housing cycle that's going to last through the middle of this year," Mr. Alexander said in a 2007 interview on PBS.
Heckuva job.
Shorter Ruth Marcus
The people who fucked everything up are the only ones who can fix it, and they should be compensated well for their efforts.
The Rapture
Ellen Tauscher might be thankfully raptured out of Congress.
Rep. Ellen Tauscher (D-Calif.) is under consideration to take a top State Department position under Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to reports.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Will They Manage?
I've been sitting her for months wondering if Republicans would ever be able to get away from reflexively leg-humping Big Money and their general love of handing taxpayer money to rich people and start out-outraging and out-populisting Democrats about this bailout stuff.
Some signs today they might be going there. It's an obvious route, even if it means going against the money boys. Can they manage?
Some signs today they might be going there. It's an obvious route, even if it means going against the money boys. Can they manage?
Retention Bonuses
Uh-huh.
So these are the evil ones.
Mr. Cuomo did not name the recipients of bonuses but said one employee received more than $6.4 million. The top seven received more than $4 million each, and the top 10 received a combined $42 million. Eleven of those who received “retention” bonuses of $1 million or more are no longer working at A.I.G., including one who received $4.6 million, he said.
“A.I.G. made more than 73 millionaires in the unit which lost so much money that it brought the firm to its knees forcing a taxpayer bailout,” Mr. Cuomo wrote in the letter. “Something is deeply wrong with this outcome.”
So these are the evil ones.
Nice Work
Because they did such awesome work.
To be fair it's important to distinguish between AIG's various bits. AIGFG was where the evil was done. Not sure from this yet who these bonus recipients were.
AIG paid 73 employees bonuses of $1 million or more; 11 of whom are no longer there, according to NY Atty. Gen. Cuomo.
To be fair it's important to distinguish between AIG's various bits. AIGFG was where the evil was done. Not sure from this yet who these bonus recipients were.
Tax'Em
Wonder if this will actually go through.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced on the Senate floor Tuesday that the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee will pursue a legislative fix in such a way that the "recipients of those bonuses will not be able to keep all their money — and that's an understatement."
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Montana, will propose a special tax within the next 24 hours, Reid said.
"I don't think those bonuses should be paid," Baucus said Tuesday.
Wanker of the Day
John McCain.
And the man whose injuries prevent him from using a computer has since written:
And the man whose injuries prevent him from using a computer has since written:
@GStephanopoulos i would have never bailed out AIG, the real scandal is billions to foreign banks.
Post-Shame
It is, sadly, where we are. Elites don't take responsibility for the actions, and other elites, like the inane finger painters in Fred Hiatt's kindergarten class, rise to their defense. After a couple of decades of being lectured by these people on the subject of personal responsibility it's all a bit too much to take.
Not An Urban Theme Park
I mentioned being somewhat stunned by this column yesterday, though it actually reflects fairly common sentiment. The city doesn't just exist as a parking lot for a commuters and day trippers, and its policies aren't and shouldn't be overly oriented towards such people. Maintaining its desirability as a place to live by, you know, not charging for amenities that local residents enjoy is also quite important.
TV Journalists
CNN's Heidi Collins just said, "Growing up, you probably remember your mother going to the supermarket with coupons..." I'm sure the popularity of coupons waxes and wanes somewhat, but I'm also quite sure that for plenty of CNN viewers their use isn't just some cute childhood memory.
Silly Jamison
Richard Cohen knows funny, and knows when the kids should get off his lawn.
And also when to harass his female employees. Just sayin'.
And also when to harass his female employees. Just sayin'.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Where Are The Liberal Economists?
I left academia for a variety of reasons, but one of them was the fact that more people read my shitty blog in about the first 3 weeks than would ever read any of my academic papers. And a related reason was that I thought the culture of the profession, at least in this country, worked against outspoken liberals. In my experience (this is anecdote, not survey), the majority of economists I knew were Democrats, if not especially liberal ones, but still they were generally more comfortable with economist public intellectuals who were right wing cranks than they were with left wing public intellectuals. Paul Krugman is shrill and whatnot.
Anyway, the point is... The Left needs more "respectable" economists who are willing to put themselves out there in public discourse space. You know, blogging, op-ed pieces, radio, teevee, etc. I was asked recently to list them and I didn't come up with many. Stand up and be heard!
Anyway, the point is... The Left needs more "respectable" economists who are willing to put themselves out there in public discourse space. You know, blogging, op-ed pieces, radio, teevee, etc. I was asked recently to list them and I didn't come up with many. Stand up and be heard!
Deep Thought
How dare Obama's press secretary mock Dick Cheney just hours before his wife is hospitalized.
The Mall Is Flat
Suck on this, bondholders.
The financial condition of General Growth Properties Inc. became even more precarious as the mall giant let a Monday due date for $395 million in bonds pass without payment.
General Growth, which is trying to coax its bondholders into a nine-month extension, is betting that holders of the past-due bonds will forego filing an involuntary bankruptcy petition against it and instead allow it to restructure its $27 billion debt load out of court.
And How Many Others
How many other rich assholes - crooks or otherwise - owe the IRS far more money than I'll earn in my lifetime? And what's taking the IRS so long to collect?
Accused billionaire swindler R. Allen Stanford and his wife owe the IRS $226.6 million in back taxes, according to a new court filing by the IRS. A lien filed in Stanford's divorce records indicated he owed $114 million, but the new IRS filing shows the total debt is nearly twice that figure.
I'm Miffed
Barack Obama did not attend my birthday party, and did not buy me that new bicycle that I wanted.
Gonna Pull That Jenga Piece
Emptywheel is right that AIG basically threatened to pull the whole house down.
Time to nationalize their personal belongings, preferably with little Tommy Friedman yelling "Suck On This" through a bullhorn as it happens.
Time to nationalize their personal belongings, preferably with little Tommy Friedman yelling "Suck On This" through a bullhorn as it happens.
Stepping In It
I'd like to believe AIG did, but I'm not optimistic anything will happen.
If I were an editor with some spare reporters I'd get them on a feature series of "Lifestyles of the New Welfare Recipients." Name and shame...
If I were an editor with some spare reporters I'd get them on a feature series of "Lifestyles of the New Welfare Recipients." Name and shame...
Vince Fumo Is Having A Bad Day
From my twitter feed:
Meaningless to outsiders, but he's a former state senator and one of the giant local power brokers for the last couple of decades...
...even worse:
...final tally: guilty on 137 of 137 counts. Impressive!
# cbs3Fumo has been found guilty on the first 52 counts ...3 minutes ago from web
# WHYY's It's Our CityItsOurCityVince Fumo found GUILTY...so far of all counts...but they are at only 50 of more than 130 separate counts. stay tuned.3 minutes ago from web
# Philly City PapercitypaperFUMO GUILTY ON FIRST 30 COUNTS: http://tinyurl.com/c7l24s3 minutes ago from web
# cbs3cbs3Fumo has been founds guilty on the first 24 counts4 minutes ago from web
Meaningless to outsiders, but he's a former state senator and one of the giant local power brokers for the last couple of decades...
...even worse:
# ItsOurCityVince Fumo - guilty - counts 1 - 91. there are still more counts to be read. We are tracking Robert Moran's blog. http://tinyurl.com/d8y6dyhalf a minute ago from web
# cbs3cbs3#Fumo has been found guilty on the first 80 counts ... he is sitting in the courtroom with his head down and motionlesshalf a minute ago from web
...final tally: guilty on 137 of 137 counts. Impressive!
On The Merits Of Congestion Tolling
A reader writes in:
It is true that congestion tolling would be somewhat of a regressive tax, though I think opponents of such things tend to overestimate the degree to which poor people drive, even in the LA metro area. Still it would be costly for less than rich if not exactly poor people. One way to ameliorate this is either through social contract (using money raised to fund that public transportation) or reduction of other taxes (implement congestion charge, give everyone $1000 tax credit).
But the reason to have a congestion toll is that... there's too much congestion! Road congestion involves an unpriced externality. That is, when you get on a crowded freeway in the morning you take into account your private cost (cost of expected travel time), but don't take into account the fact that your car on the road is making things just a bit worse off. Everyone pays for this excess congestion by extra waiting in traffic time. Tolling is essentially a way to replace "excess wasted time in traffic jams" with money raised, which could either be spent on productive things (SUPERTRAINS) or just rebated back to all people.
The point isn't to punish people for driving, it's to try to line up incentives a bit more closely with actual costs in order to make more efficient use of the existing infrastructure.
I work in LA county and commute to Irvine. You wrote, "Congestion tolling is a good idea." I don't understand. Without good public transportation, how would congestion tolling not favor the wealthy?
(We already have toll roads that are too expensive for working people to use -- private highways for the rich.)
It is true that congestion tolling would be somewhat of a regressive tax, though I think opponents of such things tend to overestimate the degree to which poor people drive, even in the LA metro area. Still it would be costly for less than rich if not exactly poor people. One way to ameliorate this is either through social contract (using money raised to fund that public transportation) or reduction of other taxes (implement congestion charge, give everyone $1000 tax credit).
But the reason to have a congestion toll is that... there's too much congestion! Road congestion involves an unpriced externality. That is, when you get on a crowded freeway in the morning you take into account your private cost (cost of expected travel time), but don't take into account the fact that your car on the road is making things just a bit worse off. Everyone pays for this excess congestion by extra waiting in traffic time. Tolling is essentially a way to replace "excess wasted time in traffic jams" with money raised, which could either be spent on productive things (SUPERTRAINS) or just rebated back to all people.
The point isn't to punish people for driving, it's to try to line up incentives a bit more closely with actual costs in order to make more efficient use of the existing infrastructure.
But They're Very Smart And Serious
Timmeh and Larry are just shoveling cash to their pals. It's so depressing.
Abandoned
Wonder how much of this coming.
It wasn’t until early March that Krause and other residents learned why the complex – the alluringly named Alante at the Islands — was rapidly going to seed. The property owner, Irvine, Calif.-based Bethany Holdings Group, had abandoned the complex and a dozen other large rental properties in the greater Phoenix area after defaulting on hundreds of millions of dollars in loans.
...
As panicked renters in Arizona began holding public meetings to explore whether they could walk away from leases, recoup security deposits or sue, it became clear that the scale of the mess was far larger than they had realized. Companies under the Bethany umbrella owned at least 60 — and possibly many more — large residential complexes across the nation, all of which are now believed to be in bankruptcy or receivership, potentially affecting tens of thousands of renters.
The Bethany Group meltdown highlights how few protections exist for renters caught in the foreclosure crisis. That’s a situation that some experts say is becoming much more common.
Sorry Your Career Might Not Be As Awesome
Ezra:
This is the reason I'm so often pretty unsympathetic about the way many journalists whine about their declining industry. I don't actually care if the Philadelphia Inquirer has somebody covering Washington (though they should have somebody covering local races for federal office, etc.). I have no idea why 3 million journalists showed up in Denver for the Democratic convention. I don't know why there are so many journalists stationed at the White House all day every day waiting to pester Gibbs.
This stuff might be sexier and feel more important than covering local zoning board meetings, but it doesn't actual require the amount of resources that are devoted to it.
I actually disagree with Ezra (click the link) that what we're losing is news that people don't want. I think local newspapers have generally been pretty bad at doing the thing they don't have all that much competition for, which is providing good coverage of local news. Frankly, much maligned local television news often does a better job, not because they're so awesome but because they're focused on it.
It will be bad if there's no business model for quality local journalism, though I think for years part of the problem is that there hasn't been enough...quality local journalism. Perhaps someone should try it.
You often hear journalists complain about DC Bureaus closing and high profile jobs being lost. But that's not the problem.
This is the reason I'm so often pretty unsympathetic about the way many journalists whine about their declining industry. I don't actually care if the Philadelphia Inquirer has somebody covering Washington (though they should have somebody covering local races for federal office, etc.). I have no idea why 3 million journalists showed up in Denver for the Democratic convention. I don't know why there are so many journalists stationed at the White House all day every day waiting to pester Gibbs.
This stuff might be sexier and feel more important than covering local zoning board meetings, but it doesn't actual require the amount of resources that are devoted to it.
I actually disagree with Ezra (click the link) that what we're losing is news that people don't want. I think local newspapers have generally been pretty bad at doing the thing they don't have all that much competition for, which is providing good coverage of local news. Frankly, much maligned local television news often does a better job, not because they're so awesome but because they're focused on it.
It will be bad if there's no business model for quality local journalism, though I think for years part of the problem is that there hasn't been enough...quality local journalism. Perhaps someone should try it.
If Fred Hiatt Is For It
America's stupidest Op-Ed editor, Fred Hiatt, comes out in favor of a vehicle miles tax.
Unlike most proponents, Hiatt at least comes up with some uses which aren't covered - and covered better - by a simple gas tax which already charges more for Hummers than for Civics. But then the real point of a vehicle miles tax isn't to charge per mile, it's a way of implementing congestion tolling. Congestion tolling is a good idea, but there's no need to connect to a general vehicle miles fee.
So Congress created the National Surface Transportation Infrastructure Financing Commission to figure out what to do. It was stocked with Democrats (such as Atkinson, who heads the Information Technology & Innovation Foundation) and Republicans, gas tax people and toll people, bankers and mass-transit executives -- 15 members who started far apart but after hours of hearings, discussions and meetings ended up, in a recently released report, unanimous.
And here's what they said: Raise the gas tax now, by 10 cents from the current 18.4 cents per gallon. Then replace it entirely over the next decade or so with a system that would charge drivers a fee per mile driven.
In this new world, a GPS would be built into every car and truck. It would keep track of where you drove your car, and when, but the data would not be shared beyond the vehicle so privacy would be protected. It could be set to charge more per mile driven for Hummers than for Civics; more during rush hour than in the middle of the night; more for driving on congested bridges than on empty roads.
Unlike most proponents, Hiatt at least comes up with some uses which aren't covered - and covered better - by a simple gas tax which already charges more for Hummers than for Civics. But then the real point of a vehicle miles tax isn't to charge per mile, it's a way of implementing congestion tolling. Congestion tolling is a good idea, but there's no need to connect to a general vehicle miles fee.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Ron Silver, RIP
I'm so old I can remember when CNN had him guest host Crossfire... from the "left." Of course that was in 2002 so it says more about your liberal media than it does about how old I am, but still.
Actor and longtime political activist Ron Silver died this morning, succumbing to a long battle with cancer, friends of the liberal Democrat-turned-GOP stalwart told The Post.
Stop Feeding Me A Shit Sandwich
Timmeh's puppeteer Larry:
It's called bankruptcy you idiot.
Summers argued today that the Obama administration has sought to limit the AIG bonuses.
"We are a country of law. There are contracts. The government cannot just abrogate contracts. Every legal step possible to limit those bonuses is being taken by Secretary Geithner and by the Federal Reserve system," Summer said.
It's called bankruptcy you idiot.
That's A Lot Of Riders
I don't know Phoenix at all, but that's a lot of a riders on a newly opened line.
I usually making rail/highway comparisons, as I think too many people see them as simply parallel routes rather than fundamentally different modes of transportation, but just to give a sense of scale a highway lane can, at best (generous estimate), carry about 2000 vehicles per hour, though obviously your, uh, mileage may vary depending on congestion levels.
- The average passenger count for weekdays in February, the second month of the cross-Valley line's revenue operations, jumped 15 percent from January and was well over projections for the first year. Almost 35,300 people rode trains on the average weekday, Metro announced Thursday. That figure exceeded Metro's target of 26,000 by more than one-third.
I usually making rail/highway comparisons, as I think too many people see them as simply parallel routes rather than fundamentally different modes of transportation, but just to give a sense of scale a highway lane can, at best (generous estimate), carry about 2000 vehicles per hour, though obviously your, uh, mileage may vary depending on congestion levels.
Who's The Boss?
Remember that part about the US owning AIG? Well, you know, we just gave them a bunch of money and they get to do with it whatever they want.
Heckuva job, Timmeh.
This money is going to the clowns who sunk the company, and almost the world.
I guess that means a bit less money for Goldman Sachs, at least.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Heckuva job, Timmeh.
This money is going to the clowns who sunk the company, and almost the world.
I guess that means a bit less money for Goldman Sachs, at least.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Sunday Bobbleheads
Document the atrocities.
ABC's "This Week" — Lawrence Summers, director of the National Economic Council; Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
___
CBS' "Face the Nation" — Summers.
___
NBC's "Meet the Press" — Christina Romer, head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va.
___
CNN's "State of the Union" — Former Vice President Dick Cheney; Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa.
"Fox News Sunday" _ Austan Goolsbee, member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers; Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn.; Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass.; Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
The Death Yaks
I agree with this, except I think if you routinely post absurd Eastern Bloc disco videos to the Internets, you should be taxed down to your toenails, dammit.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Any Day Now
Super Shitpile returns again...
(Reuters) - The Treasury will offer more details in the coming week about how proposed public-private partnerships to take bad assets off banks' books will work, a senior department official said on Saturday.