Sunday, January 31, 2010
November Reality
Barring a miracle, it's almost a certainty that the jobs picture in November is going to be just about as shitty as it is now, and that's the bullish view.
And taking the longer view, a shitty jobs picture 11 months from now will mean that we will have had a shitty jobs picture for 11 months longer. Long term unemployment really really impacts people.
And taking the longer view, a shitty jobs picture 11 months from now will mean that we will have had a shitty jobs picture for 11 months longer. Long term unemployment really really impacts people.
Turning The Machines Back On
There have been two administrations involved in all of this, and presumably there has been diversity of opinion within administrations, but it's hard not to conclude that ultimately decisions they made were based in part on the denial that there ever was a housing bubble. Prices going up was never a problem, just the prices coming down bit. To some degree reinflating the bubble has always been part of the plan, or at best minimizing the losses. Remember, for quite some time this was all because of the CRA and subprime borrowers with darker than average complexions. While that was transparent bullshit when people were saying it, that doesn't mean that they didn't believe their bullshit.
Real Economy
So much more fun to take the money to the casino.
Banks that take too much risk should be allowed to fail, Mr. Ackermann said, and all banks should concentrate firmly on working to develop what participants here repeatedly referred to as “the real economy.”
Blogging In The Age Of Obama
I admit it can be a bit annoying at times, not as bad but in some ways similar to blogging during primary season. There are people who think they are noble truthtellers for explaining how Obama is the awesomest ever, and people who think they are noble truthtellers for pointing out how foolish we all were for voting for him instead of... well, not quite sure who we were supposed to vote for. I'm not writing this in a Broderesque "nuts to the left of me, nuts to the right, must mean I'm just right" way. People can legitimately believe Obama is awesome, and they can legitimately believe he's awful, having different priorities, interpretations, and understanding of things which can't necessarily be known. In other words, people can disagree about stuff! This does not bother me. What's annoying is getting from both sides an accusation of being some kind of a sellout or dupe. By both sides I don't mean all people, I mean in the sense of coming from some people from both directions.
Maybe we Should All Take a Civility Pledge
[bumping this because it got stepped on earlier..-a]
Kevin K of RumpRoast is getting hassled with one of the more appalling cases of trying to out a blogger I've come across. It's appalling because (1) the crazy person behind it is going after Kevin's wife too, as well as his co-bloggers; (2) the crazy obscure blogger behind it is claiming he's the victim of attacks on the part of Daily Kos ultimately financed by George Soros, and wingnuts of course, are eating this lunacy up (see for instance the serially irresponsible Glenn Reynolds) despite the fact the obscure crazy blog's claim to getting persecuted is as transparently false as it is completely unhinged.
Taking internet blog arguments personally to the extent of trying to find out where someone's family members work is nasty enough, but it's especially awful when the guy doing it is making obviously crazy claims that are uncritically swallowed whole by the right blogosphere (the guy BTW has also done a Breitbart internet radio show).
Kevin K of RumpRoast is getting hassled with one of the more appalling cases of trying to out a blogger I've come across. It's appalling because (1) the crazy person behind it is going after Kevin's wife too, as well as his co-bloggers; (2) the crazy obscure blogger behind it is claiming he's the victim of attacks on the part of Daily Kos ultimately financed by George Soros, and wingnuts of course, are eating this lunacy up (see for instance the serially irresponsible Glenn Reynolds) despite the fact the obscure crazy blog's claim to getting persecuted is as transparently false as it is completely unhinged.
Taking internet blog arguments personally to the extent of trying to find out where someone's family members work is nasty enough, but it's especially awful when the guy doing it is making obviously crazy claims that are uncritically swallowed whole by the right blogosphere (the guy BTW has also done a Breitbart internet radio show).
By Now They Write Themselves
Another week, another Adam Nagourney GOP Rocks/GOP is coming back strong article.
Except For The Stuff That Might Help The Little People
Not working.
oh well.
In his latest quarterly report to Congress, special inspector general Neil Barofsky said that the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, has failed to boost bank lending as well as halt the spread of foreclosures -- two key aims of the sprawling program.
"Whether these goals can effectively be met through existing TARP programs is very much an open question at this time," Barofsky said in the report.
oh well.
Strange Concerns
Obviously having a comprehensive and integrated transit system would boost the benefits of high speed rail investment, especially for relative short distance routes like Tampa-Orlando, but we already have a commonly used system for transportation which requires renting a car or otherwise getting automobile transportation in most places. It's called flying.
I get that on relatively short routes, where automobile travel will be a close substitute for most people, this is somewhat of an issue, but I see concerns like this generally.
I get that on relatively short routes, where automobile travel will be a close substitute for most people, this is somewhat of an issue, but I see concerns like this generally.
Nothing About Nothing
After years doing this, I'm reasonably sure that Joe/Jill Conservative don't know jack shit about anything, including (if not especially) defense and military spending issues. What they do understand is how to reference dominant narratives, which is easy because they're, you know, dominant, and regularly parroted back to them.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Axelrod and Speaker Boehner.
This Week has President Scott Brown.
Face the Nation has Thune, Granholm, Barbour, and Rendell.
Document the atrocities!
This Week has President Scott Brown.
Face the Nation has Thune, Granholm, Barbour, and Rendell.
Document the atrocities!
Ha-ha funny or...
Scurrilous Videos Besmirch, Enrage Forum, Leaders, WorldSigned,In a series of diabolically stupid video manipulations, a cabal of anti-poverty filmmakers have performed an elaborate slander of the World Economic Forum, showing its "leading lights" taking a dramatic departure from the litany of meaningless pledges they usually make at the annual gathering in the Swiss resort town.
In response, WEF spokesperson Adrian Monck could barely contain himself. "The only defense to satire is common sense!" he sputtered, before racing back into the WEF war room to deal with the burgeoning crisis.
Fortunately for the WEF, few media outlets picked up on the WEF's fantastic but fictional approach to world poverty ("World Leaders Pledge Strategy to End Poverty Now"). Instead, the media was dominated by coverage of a real WEF press release warning of "Over Regulation of the Financial Sector" (sic).
Not Atrios
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Just A Prank
No doubt.
SALISBURY, Conn. (AP) — Actor Elmore "Rip" Torn has been charged with breaking into a Connecticut bank and carrying a loaded handgun while intoxicated.
Human Recession
Perhaps someone should consider doing something about this?
Unemployment data comes out on Friday. I'm hoping it's a really horrible one, not because I want things to be worse but if we get an official measurement of things that's really bad maybe someone will consider doing something about it.
Of course I'm so old I can remember when 10% unemployment was "really bad."
Unemployment data comes out on Friday. I'm hoping it's a really horrible one, not because I want things to be worse but if we get an official measurement of things that's really bad maybe someone will consider doing something about it.
Of course I'm so old I can remember when 10% unemployment was "really bad."
Is Health Care Reform
really dead, or is this just some more theater for the rubes.
Difficult for me to believe that the Dems will let it wither in an election year. They need something to run on.
Damnit.
Difficult for me to believe that the Dems will let it wither in an election year. They need something to run on.
Damnit.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Whatever
Harold Ford:
I know plenty of hardworking people fighting the good fight like Harold Ford. Taking a temporary leave of absence from a major financial institution, a little here and there from private universities and cable news networks. Just enough to scrape by.....
"Now I've taken a 45-day unpaid leave of absence from my job at Merrill Lynch. It's not right to draw a salary when I'm out every day campaigning. Fortunately, I've still got a little NYU teaching job and some MSNBC, so for a while I think I can put food on the table."
I know plenty of hardworking people fighting the good fight like Harold Ford. Taking a temporary leave of absence from a major financial institution, a little here and there from private universities and cable news networks. Just enough to scrape by.....
My New Neighbor
I assumed Crunchy Con Dreher would move to some exurban paradise, but apparently he's in the urban hellhole somewhere.
More Like That
While it was pretty dumb for the GOP, it would be excellent if Obama did more events with lawmakers like that, including separate meetings with various Dem caucuses, GOP senators, etc.
GOP Follies
I wonder who the idiot is who thought this format - Republican idiots asking questions of Obama at a podium - was a good idea.
Might do will in November elections after all.
Might do will in November elections after all.
I'm So Old
I can remember when Rahm was a brilliant hire who was going to bust some heads and enforce some party discipline.
They do bust heads on the important stuff, like Bernanke.
They do bust heads on the important stuff, like Bernanke.
Guilty
Scott Roeder guilty in Tiller murder. Given that he confessed, any other verdict would have been insane...
Gambling Our Way To Propserity
I don't care if gambling is legal, I just chafe at the fantasy that casinos are some sort of saviors for state budget problems.
Block Killers
It isn't especially hard to build a building which makes a pleasing pedestrian friendly block, but for some reason people love to build giant blank walls.
Maybe If We're Nicer To Chuck Grassley
Dems have no one to blame but themselves. I certainly get that they have media and the noise machine largely working against them on this stuff, but they haven't even tried to make obstructionism an issue for Republicans.
Not Sure I Believe It
But here's the good news.
The United States economy grew at its fastest pace in over six years at the end of 2009, but a sluggish job market is still souring economists on the sustainability of the recovery.
Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, well above analysts’ expectations. It had grown at an annualized rate of 2.2 percent in the previous quarter. Analysts had forecast annualized growth of 4.8 percent in the quarter.
Morning Thread
If you have the BBC or BBC America, or go here, you can see Tony Blair testifying on one-minute delay about the Iraq War inquiry.
Something our supposedly "better" system will never have the guts to do with Bush or Cheney.
Something our supposedly "better" system will never have the guts to do with Bush or Cheney.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Because It Worked
And it's nice that a company gives you good advice that actually reduces their sales.
My DVD remote wasn't working. Replacing the batteries didn't work, but oddly the linked advice did.
My DVD remote wasn't working. Replacing the batteries didn't work, but oddly the linked advice did.
Sally's Village
I guess she does us all a valuable service by providing an honest window into the warped and twisted minds of elite Villagers...
Not Over
I've been beating this drum for years now, but the foreclosure crisis isn't over and the president and Congress really should do something about it.
Good Job
Any assessment of Geithner's job performance should take into account the total failure of the HAMP program, run by Treasury.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the program which might have helped people and not banks was the one to fail, and fail predictably.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the program which might have helped people and not banks was the one to fail, and fail predictably.
Heckuva Job
From 2005.
U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.
...
"House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates," said Bernanke, who served on the Fed board from 2002 until June. However, he added, "a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year."
Epic Fail
Happy to be wrong, but the failure to deal with the underlying problems in housing and finance under the theory that prices will magically rebound and everything will then be ok is going to doom the economy....
Still A Problem
I'm not sure if the absence of the word foreclosure in the speech was a big problem, but certainly a big problem that they've failed to deal with the problem.
It's a tremendous personal and social burden, and they didn't take the necessary steps to deal with it. The press has moved on, as if the problem is over. It isn't.
It's a tremendous personal and social burden, and they didn't take the necessary steps to deal with it. The press has moved on, as if the problem is over. It isn't.
Spread Thin
I definitely would've preferred concentrating all the SUPERTRAIN money in a couple of projects. I'm certainly not against modest improvements - getting average speeds up to 110mph is good enough in many places - but I'm not convinced there's enough money for doing that.
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
SOTU
Might be proven wrong, but kinda hard to think speeches of this sort matter much. Maybe he'll surprise me with awesome proposals, though proposals which go nowhere don't much thrill me. Probably he'll punch a few hippies, because that's how all the cool kids in the Village roll.
Drink when he says "Some on the left..."
Drink when he says "Some on the left..."
Horrors
Apparently the prospect of modestly progressive taxation means we must support regressive taxation.
Not Confused About Everything
The White House might be unsure about what to do about their signature piece of legislation, but that hasn't stopped them from whipping senators on Bernanke.
Priorities.
Priorities.
Good Luck With That
After years of journalists complaining about how those pesky bloggers and teh google are destroying their jobs, I wish they'd direct a bit more of the ire at their owners and publishers who are apparently dreaming that Apple Jesus will save them.
Point being: it was the job of the publishers to figure out how to make money. They failed and they're still dreaming of Apple Jesus.
Point being: it was the job of the publishers to figure out how to make money. They failed and they're still dreaming of Apple Jesus.
Catastrophic
No one in the administration seems to understand that 10% unemployment is catastrophic.
Why I Blog
Because every now and then I manage to successfully inject something into the bloodstream. Because of me (and that because of a reader's tip), a couple hundred thousand people know that Tom Friedman said we went to go to Iraq in order to tell their population to Suck On This.
Small and infrequent victories, but they're satisfying.
Small and infrequent victories, but they're satisfying.
Tipping
As I've written a few times, I generally think concerns about the ill impacts of urban gentrification are overblown, but one big exception to this is if poor people get priced out of areas with decent mass transit access. I worry a bit about this in parts of my urban hellhole, specifically the West Philly area.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Ghost of Reformers Past
The good ol' days:
Americans of every background and belief are hungry for a new kind of politics -- a people's politics that reconnects them with their government; one that offers not just a vote at the ballot box, but a voice in Washington and an assurance that the leaders we send there will hear it.
The people I've met across this country don't just want reform for reform's sake, they want reform that will help pay their doctor's bills, or ensure that their tax dollars are spent wisely, or put us on the path to energy independence. They want real reform and they're tired of the lobbyists standing in the way.
Afternoon Thread
I am celebrating the spending freeze by declaring that liquor rations are up. I am the only customer at my local, so apparently the message did not get out.
Gonna Take Out Some Fire Insurance On My Neighbor's House
They turned the machines back on.
- Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley are encouraging clients to buy swaps that pay higher yields for speculating on the extent of losses in corporate defaults. Trading in credit- default swap indexes rose in the fourth quarter for the first time since 2008, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. data. Federal Reserve data show leverage, or borrowed money, is rising in capital markets.
Also
Arab men get a bit upset when you break into their homes and point guns at them and their families.
Bizarre culture, really.
Bizarre culture, really.
When A Freeze Isn't A Freeze
As I said, the best you can say is that it's an irrelevant political gimmick. But it's horrible politics, short term and long term. I don't care how well poll-tested it is. People always say they like stuff like that, but what they really care about is cash in their pockets.
Fear Is The Mindkiller
The thing I've never been able to comprehend is why Democrats think public opinion is fixed and unmovable.
I thought a charismatic president would alter that dynamic a bit.
Oh well.
I thought a charismatic president would alter that dynamic a bit.
Oh well.
But They Got Special Goodies!
I didn't quite get it at first, when a college friend was bitching about it on facebook, but eventually I did. Unions were pissed off by the "cadillac tax," and when they announced the deal that would've held off on taxing health plans obtained through collective bargaining, non-union independents were livid at the "special deal for unions."
The people in charge have no idea what they're doing.
The people in charge have no idea what they're doing.
Deep Thought
I guess the best defense of the "spending freeze" is that it's a cheap political gimmick with little actual impact.
CRE Hell
I'm sure a spending freeze and nonrefundable tax credits will take care of this.
The Urban Land Institute, a research center, said in an emerging trends report this month with consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers that respondents to its survey predicted that "commercial real estate vacancies will continue to increase and rents will decrease across all property sectors before the market hits bottom in 2010 and projects value declines of 40 percent to 50 percent off 2007 market peaks."
Monday, January 25, 2010
Giving Up
Chuck Toddler informs us that Obama, in SOTU, will push for 3 year non-defense discretionary spending freeze.
And then, I suppose, he'll "focus" on jobs. Message: Obama cares.
We are ruled by idiots.
And then, I suppose, he'll "focus" on jobs. Message: Obama cares.
We are ruled by idiots.
Permit Reform
I certainly don't have any kind of comprehensive deep knowledge of the building and construction permit process in Philadelphia and can't tell you what an optimal system would look like, but the combination of permit costs/delays and obscenely low property taxes on many properties does provide incentives for parcel owners to sit on undeveloped/abandoned properties for years. Hopefully this reform does improve things.
Bad Ideas
Not going to cry if Reid loses his job.
Because in a time of deep recession, the people want fewer benefits and higher health care costs.
WASHINGTON – The top Democrat in the Senate is proposing tough new budget rules that would make it much more difficult for Congress to extend emergency unemployment benefits and health insurance subsidies for laid-off workers.
The tough anti-deficit rules being proposed by Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada would also make it harder to permanently extend some of the tax cuts that expire at the end of this year, though middle-class tax cuts would not be affected.
Because in a time of deep recession, the people want fewer benefits and higher health care costs.
Plan B
I get that administration officials were not as pessimistic as I was about the economy. I don't claim to right and prescient about everything. They could have been right!
What bugs me is that they should have had a plan 'B' in place. And they didn't.
What bugs me is that they should have had a plan 'B' in place. And they didn't.
Fuck The Labor Market
The only thing that matters are capital markets. Someone should tell the administration that the labor market already crashed, and Helicopter Ben isn't doing enough to help it.
So the fate of our economy, or at least the parts of it that Timmeh cares about, depends on the confirmation of One Great Man, otherwise everything goes to hell. What if Ben has an accident and is unable to continue in his position? Are we just fucked because The Great Man is gone?
I hate these people.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, in a recent interview with Mike Allen of Politico warned that the financial markets could react negatively if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke isn't confirmed for a second term. (READ Politico's full story here.)
Geithner suggested that the market would see a failed Bernanke confirmation as "very troubling," but claimed that he was "very confident" Bernanke would receive enough Senate votes to win a second term.
"The markets would view this as very troubling thing for the economy as the whole," Geithner said. "I don't think they should be uncertain. I think they can be confident because we're very confident."
So the fate of our economy, or at least the parts of it that Timmeh cares about, depends on the confirmation of One Great Man, otherwise everything goes to hell. What if Ben has an accident and is unable to continue in his position? Are we just fucked because The Great Man is gone?
I hate these people.
Accountability Free
The more powerful you are and the more you fuck everything up, the more love you get from Fred Hiatt's crayon scribble page.
Surprised they're not advocating we put zombie Ken Lay in charge of the Fed.
Surprised they're not advocating we put zombie Ken Lay in charge of the Fed.
The Strategery
This from Dave Weigel is about right...
Going to be a fun year. sigh.
Lucky for Republicans, Democrats are set to spend the last year of their large majority explaining why they can't pass their own bills.
Going to be a fun year. sigh.
Business Plans Gone Bad
The owners tried to take all the units off of rent stabilization, but the courts smacked them down because they were receiving tax breaks. Stuy town's investors are going to eat it.
Via Avedon
Sen. Dianne Feinstein says Democrats should go "slower": “I can tell you the situation has changed dramatically. And I think it’s a sweep across the country and I think that the (White House Economic Adviser) Larry Summers’s of the world have to see it, the administration has to see it and we have to see it. And therefore everything is jobs and the economy and education. People are worried about education. You see anger. People are worried. And when they’re worried they don’t want to take on a broad new responsibility."
Perhaps the little people would less worried and angry if they didn't have to worry about losing their life's savings or even dying because they don't have health insurance. Just a thought.
Perhaps the little people would less worried and angry if they didn't have to worry about losing their life's savings or even dying because they don't have health insurance. Just a thought.
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Sunday Night
Harold Ford thinks we should cut taxes and cut the deficit and that the federal government should shrink in size and create jobs.
And that's how stupid you have to be to write an op-ed for our elite papers.
And that's how stupid you have to be to write an op-ed for our elite papers.
My Big Concern Was That They Believed Their Own Bullshit
And apparently, if the WaPo is to be believed, they did.
And now they're fanning out with the "we're just powerless" message. Jeebus.
The Obama legislative agenda was built around an "advancing tide" theory.
Democrats would start with bills that targeted relatively narrow problems, such as expanding health care for low-income children, reforming Pentagon contracting practices and curbing abuses by credit-card companies. Republicans would see the victories stack up and would want to take credit alongside a popular president. As momentum built, larger bipartisan coalitions would form to tackle more ambitious initiatives.
And now they're fanning out with the "we're just powerless" message. Jeebus.
CRE Hell
There are definitely things I like to be wrong about, but it's hard not see the administration's solutions as largely being about preserving the existing order while propping up everything just long enough for the free market fairies to return and save us all. Maybe fine if it works, but I'm just not sure it's going to work. Still a lot of shit on the books, and residential and commercial foreclosures aren't stopping...
"The middle class, they're just dead in the water," said Cathy Lada, owner of the flooring store, A Lada Flooring. "We're basically (living) paycheck to paycheck right now. There's no security."
With tenants hurting and unemployment rising, banks are bracing for another round of shaky loans, this one to borrowers who own property such as shopping centers and office buildings.
Regulators warn that banks haven't fully accounted for the trouble ahead. And while Shore-area banks say they have enough money on hand to cover it, their stock prices have taken a hit and they have reined in lending even more.
Priorities
Dooming millions to unemployment and poverty because of the slim possibility that lenders might have higher than expected inflation eroding the value of their portfolios.
Heckuva job, Democrats...
Heckuva job, Democrats...
Good Plan
Perhaps we should consider it ourselves.
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian Finance Minister Ibrahim al-Assaf said the kingdom will continue to pump money to boost growth in 2010, even as the economy rebounds from last year’s stagnation.
...
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, is spending $400 billion on infrastructure over a five-year period starting from 2009 to stimulate the economy. Rising oil prices, which have rebounded to around $75 a barrel from less than $35 in February, are also likely to boost growth this year.
Orchestra
I go to about half a dozen concerts per year, and the problems the orchestra faces are pretty obvious to me. Their marketing is horrible, their ushers and ticket sellers treat people like crap (not all, of course, but many), especially people who are there with discount tickets (I'm a subscriber, but since I usually have a self printed ticket they think it's a discounted ticket), and the facility is completely unwelcoming to people.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation has President John McCain and Dick Durbin.
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Valerie Jarrett.
This Week has Axelrod, DeMint, and Menendez.
Document the atrocities!
Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Senate Majority Leader McConnell and Valerie Jarrett.
This Week has Axelrod, DeMint, and Menendez.
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Times Change
It's a bit hard for me to comprehend, as a license was the key to freedom when I grew up in the burbs.
Some of this is due to states making the permit/initial license a bit more restrictive.
Federal data released Friday underscore a striking national shift: 30.7 percent of 16-year-olds got their licenses in 2008, compared with 44.7 percent in 1988. The downtrend is even sharper in Virginia and Maryland, state figures show. Numbers from the District, which go back to 2003, show a decline in the past two years.
"Driving is real important to a lot of the kids in the culture, but it is not the central focus like it was 25 years ago," said Tom Pecoraro, owner of I Drive Smart, a Washington area drivers education program, who said plenty of his students are older teens. "They have so many other things to do now," he said, and, with years of being shuttled to sports, lessons and play dates, "kids are used to being driven."
Some of this is due to states making the permit/initial license a bit more restrictive.
I'm still trying
to figure out why we don't have a health care reform bill sitting on President Obama's desk. The House wants a bill. The Senate says they want a bill. President Obama surely wants a decent bill as it will be a major part of his legacy. The majority of Americans, who voted for President Obama, want a bill. What's holding it up.
I Doubt He Wants The Job
But, more than that, Paul Krugman is practically a communist so it would never happen.
That's a joke, of course. I'm so old I can remember when Krugman was a pretty standard "sensible centrist." I don't think his views have changed all that much on things, though I'd say he's grown more skeptical about conservative arguments and largely ceased swatting flies to the left of him. But the center, as defined by Villagers, has shifted so far to the right in the past few decades...
That's a joke, of course. I'm so old I can remember when Krugman was a pretty standard "sensible centrist." I don't think his views have changed all that much on things, though I'd say he's grown more skeptical about conservative arguments and largely ceased swatting flies to the left of him. But the center, as defined by Villagers, has shifted so far to the right in the past few decades...
We Could Do Better
Indeed.
And, aside from Ben specifically, as I wrote before it's time for Democrats to stop filling important positions with GOP Daddies.
And, aside from Ben specifically, as I wrote before it's time for Democrats to stop filling important positions with GOP Daddies.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Fighting
According to Obama, in his speech today, he won't stop fighting for us.
Fighting's good. Winning's better. Talking about fighting, not so good.
Fighting's good. Winning's better. Talking about fighting, not so good.
Timmeh, Larry, And Ben
There is growing Senate opposition to Bernanke, with even Reid being noncommital about support. I don't think it's the case, as Andrea Mitchell said earlier, that Bernanke is a "scapegoat," but Senate sources (sometimes I have them!) do tell me that growing opposition does reflect growing discontent with the Obama economic team generally.
Unemployment is at 10%. The foreclosure crisis is ongoing. There should be discontent.
Unemployment is at 10%. The foreclosure crisis is ongoing. There should be discontent.
Better Ways
Obviously I'm not against covering the entire country with SUPERTRAINS, but realistically a lot of lower density suburban areas are as currently put together just not places where it's realistic to add a comprehensive mass transit system. Better to push for better (denser) land use around existing transit lines, create and improve affordable housing near stations, and find ways to encourage employers to locate in transit accessible areas.
CRE Hell
That particular time bomb hasn't quite exploded, and when it does let's hope it doesn't take down the life insurance industry.
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. life insurers, a group led by MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., may face $15 billion in additional commercial real estate losses, most of which will be recognized in the next two years, Fitch Ratings said.
Helicopter Ben
Even if you think he's awesome and brilliant, based solely on the simple "occasionally people in leadership positions should be accountable for what happens on their watch" principle, it was completely ridiculous that Obama renominated him. Hopefully he does go down. Perhaps we could also start appointing actual liberals to some of these positions (top finance, military, law enforcement, intelligence) that seem to be earmarked for GOP Daddies.
But, more than that, Bernanke sucks. He presided over this disaster, did nothing to prevent it, and now thinks minuscule inflation is a bigger concern than jobs, and gutting social security is more important than increasing tax revenues by helping people to get employed.
Don't let the door hit you, wanker.
But, more than that, Bernanke sucks. He presided over this disaster, did nothing to prevent it, and now thinks minuscule inflation is a bigger concern than jobs, and gutting social security is more important than increasing tax revenues by helping people to get employed.
Don't let the door hit you, wanker.
It's So Easy
As I wrote yesterday, I'm not going to get too excited about proposals until they look like they might actually pass. But on the politics, the amazing thing is how easy it is to "outpopulist" the Republicans because they're, you know, big corporation humpers at heart. The fact that the Dems have been failing to do what is basically effortless is bizarre.
POST-IT NOTES
Jan. 20 (Washington Post) -- FBI agents seeking telephone
records demanded information from phone companies in a variety of
"startling" and illicit methods, including e-mail and post-it
notes, in an "egregious breakdown" of safeguards and oversight,
the Justice Department's inspector general reported Wednesday.
records demanded information from phone companies in a variety of
"startling" and illicit methods, including e-mail and post-it
notes, in an "egregious breakdown" of safeguards and oversight,
the Justice Department's inspector general reported Wednesday.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Dreaming
It seems there's more opposition to Bernanke brewing in the Senate, though I don't know if any of those opposing him are willing to be a complete pain in the ass about it. You know, in the Senate you can simply oppose something or invoke your right to be a giant pain in the ass and completely gum up the works.
Too much to hope that Ben, Timmeh, and Larry will be shown the door...
Too much to hope that Ben, Timmeh, and Larry will be shown the door...
Air America Is Dead
Not really surprised, given their business and programming decisions. Still it was, when it started, a bit of hopefulness at a time when there wasn't much. I used to have fun doing Sam and Janeane's show weekly, even back when I was anonymous.
Oh well.
Oh well.
Bankster Reform
For rather obvious reasons I can't get too excited about proposals until they actually pass, but at least Obama is moving in the right direction.
Heckuva job, Larry.
Heckuva job, Larry.
People Hate Parking Garages
More generally, people don't like parking without a clear line of sight to their destination especially if they're in unfamiliar territory. So, yes, available spaces on the top floors of parking garages aren't thought to be "available parking."
(via streetsblog)
(via streetsblog)
Is Anyone Trying?
All local newspapers seem to devote a lot of their print space to national issues, largely duplicating the same coverage you can get anywhere. I've definitely had reporters tell me there's just no market for local coverage. No one wants to read about zoning board meetings. But, you know, I want to read about zoning board meetings! To do so I generally have to read local bulletin boards because the press isn't covering them.
Obviously it isn't just about zoning board meetings, but the point is that I don't see a lot of effort to improve coverage of local news. Maybe there is no business model there, but who is even trying?
Obviously it isn't just about zoning board meetings, but the point is that I don't see a lot of effort to improve coverage of local news. Maybe there is no business model there, but who is even trying?
Heckuva Job
I'm reasonably sure Obama and (some in) the administration wanted HAMP to work, though I'm not sure why they thought it would.
"More troubling, more than 70 percent of modifications result in an increase in the principal amount owed," according to the report by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, a collection of 12 state attorneys general and three state banking supervisors (underlined in the original). This occurs because modification programs typically allow for mortgage companies to tack on delinquent amounts and any fees incurred by servicing to the mortgage principal. The Obama administration's signature effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program, allows for this, too.
This occurs despite estimates that at least one in four homeowners currently owe more on their home than it's worth. Loan modification programs thus put these homeowners further "underwater." Less than 10 percent of loan modifications through October of last year involved significant cuts to principal.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Geography Of Poverty
Suburban poverty will, I think, create some interesting challenges. Social services that serve poor people and mass transit tend to be concentrated in urban areas for various reasons. It's difficult to afford an insured automobile, or multiple ones per household, if your household is below the poverty line.
I Suppose They Could Still Surprise Us
Since he took office, the bar I basically set for Obama was whether or not he'd succeed in passing a health care bill with something resembling a public option. As they did with the campaign, they've governed with a kind of "trust us we know what we're doing" approach which doesn't really give outside activists much to do. And that's fine, if not my preferred way of doing things, as long as it achieves its goals.
Going forward, I suppose there's some chance they don't run and hide but instead get convinced that they'd better give out some popular goodies soon.
We'll see.
Going forward, I suppose there's some chance they don't run and hide but instead get convinced that they'd better give out some popular goodies soon.
We'll see.
Shorter Dems
With large majorities in the House and the Senate, and control of the executive branch, we are utterly powerless to do anything.
I'm starting to think these people have no idea what they're doing.
I'm starting to think these people have no idea what they're doing.
Good Luck With That
While often journalists rail against imagined bloggers who believe that all news content on the web should be free, most of us just think charging for content is probably just an unworkable business model for everything but certain niche publications. I am quite happy to be wrong about that, but it's always been advertisers, not readers, who have paid the bills...
But, good luck to the New York Times! I doubt it's a good idea, but...maybe not!
But, good luck to the New York Times! I doubt it's a good idea, but...maybe not!
Keep It Simple
Medicare buy-in would be very popular and relatively simple.
Which is, of course, why it won't happen.
Which is, of course, why it won't happen.
Car Free And Loving it
One thing I don't think most urban policymakers have ever really come to terms with is the fact that appealing modern cities and cars really are enemies. I don't mean that cities need to be entirely car free, of course. Don't worry, the cars we will always have with us. But the population density needed to support good urban living isn't supportable if every person comes with a car attached to them. It just doesn't work. People need more mobility than walking allows, which is why a comprehensive mass transit system and an affordable car sharing program are necessary, but one-car-per-driving-age-person and pleasant walkable communities just cannot go together.
I'm specifically talking about urban living. Enjoy your suburban and rural communities if that's what you like!
I'm specifically talking about urban living. Enjoy your suburban and rural communities if that's what you like!
Unlike The Deficit
Which is just an abstract issue for people, jobs are, you know, a little more concrete. "Deficit hawks" can vote for tax cuts and wars perpetually because nobody really cares about the deficit and Fred Hiatt will always remain impressed with how serious they are. Jobs, however, matter to people.
And, yes, Congress and the administration could, if they wanted to, do a lot about the jobs situation. I don't think they're likely to, however, and therefore November's going to be a lot of fun.
And, yes, Congress and the administration could, if they wanted to, do a lot about the jobs situation. I don't think they're likely to, however, and therefore November's going to be a lot of fun.
Clock Ticks
Like Krugman, I'm puzzled by the administration's lack of initiative about trying to do something about jobs. When the last jobs report came out it seemed there was, yet again, a brief sense of urgency about the problem and then... crickets.
They Control Everything
And while the absurdities of the Senate don't always make it easy, the fact is they're still in charge, and hiding behind Joe Lieberman's wankery isn't going to change that.
Swing/"independent" voters will vote for Democrats on the hope that they'll deliver some goodies to them, believing that usually the Dems give the goodies to undeserving brown-hued people. Obama's been in office for a year. Where are the goodies?
Swing/"independent" voters will vote for Democrats on the hope that they'll deliver some goodies to them, believing that usually the Dems give the goodies to undeserving brown-hued people. Obama's been in office for a year. Where are the goodies?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Noted
Chris Matthews (rough quote): We feel a lot better about what we're doing in Haiti than we do fighting these wars.
What's This Country Coming To
When rich white guys can't make racist jokes and expect everyone to laugh at them.
I admit I'm always a bit surprised about how saddened some people are by this.
I admit I'm always a bit surprised about how saddened some people are by this.
Stupid
What digby said, twice.
Two posts. The narrative is getting set. Regardless of who wins in MA. It is not The Economy Stupid. It is Dems in disarray, and deficits.
America thrived with 90 percent marginal rates in the top bracket.
Two posts. The narrative is getting set. Regardless of who wins in MA. It is not The Economy Stupid. It is Dems in disarray, and deficits.
America thrived with 90 percent marginal rates in the top bracket.
Big Turnout
is good for Democrats. Maybe the villagers did us a favor by hyping the horse race aspects of the MA election. I'm sure it was by accident.
Lessons
Josh sez:
Is that clear? I mean, I've never really gotten the impression that was actually the lesson learned in Washington, whatever the truth.
Anyway, a few months ago I would've thought the idea of a Republican resurgence in 2010 was absurd, and now I don't.
Unemployment is at 10%. Still.
And the lesson of 1994 is clear: the folks who killed health care in 1994 didn't gain any benefit from it. They were the ones who got slaughtered in November.
Is that clear? I mean, I've never really gotten the impression that was actually the lesson learned in Washington, whatever the truth.
Anyway, a few months ago I would've thought the idea of a Republican resurgence in 2010 was absurd, and now I don't.
Unemployment is at 10%. Still.
Legalizing Ultimate Fighting
Whatever it takes, I guess.
ALBANY — Gov. David A. Paterson proposed what would be the largest cut to school aid in more than two decades and nearly $1 billion in new or increased taxes and fees as he unveiled his budget on Tuesday, a plan that is sure to touch off fierce opposition in the Legislature.
Scouring for new sources of tax revenue amid a fiscal crisis, the governor is also proposing to legalize ultimate fighting, allow the sale of wine in grocery stores, tax cigarette sales on Indian reservations and deploy speed-enforcement cameras in highway work zones.
Back In The Saddle
In case you missed the exciting news, I'm home. Thanks to everyone who helped keep this place running in various ways while I was gone (and as always thanks to many of those same people who help keep it running while I'm here). Apologies for not being a bit more organized for my absence before my trip. I had grand plans, but then haloscan killed itself and I spent a bunch of time trying out various commenting platforms to see what might hold up best while I was away. Not thrilled with the current setup, but it'll work well enough until Eschaton 2.0 premiers sometime in late 2017.
Our Dumb Discourse
Just a couple of paragraphs apart.
So his rationale for running has nothing to do with issues, but it's about issues. Harold Ford is so awesome.
The interview - granted under the condition that the questions be limited to his rationale for running, and not issues - comes at the end of a rocky first week of buzz surrounding his potential candidacy.
...
"This race isn't about feet, it's about issues," he said of ribbing he has taken on the web and elsewhere of his regular pedicures.
So his rationale for running has nothing to do with issues, but it's about issues. Harold Ford is so awesome.
Dud
I'd really like it if reporters pressed administration people on just what they think went wrong with the HAMP program. I think they truly believed, when they proposed it, that it would work for a lot more borrowers than it did. They certainly announced it with great fanfare. I suspect they'd just say the economy is worse than they expected, but when the program was announced plenty of people pointed out why it wasn't very likely to work well.
I don't think the economy can turn around until the foreclosure crisis is over. Damaged abandoned properties are destroying neighborhoods. This has been a big failure.
I don't think the economy can turn around until the foreclosure crisis is over. Damaged abandoned properties are destroying neighborhoods. This has been a big failure.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
blah blah blah...
The FBI illegally collected more than 2,000 U.S. telephone call records between 2002 and 2006 by invoking terrorism emergencies that did not exist or simply persuading phone companies to provide records, according to internal bureau memos and interviews. FBI officials issued approvals after the fact to justify their actions.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Run Away
Yes, a Coakley loss would ensure that Dems double down on their craven capitulation.
Because it always works so well.
Because it always works so well.
Win Or Lose
It's excellent news for Republicans.
Anyone remember the name of that weirdo from upstate New York who was going to win but didn't? Me neither.
Anyone remember the name of that weirdo from upstate New York who was going to win but didn't? Me neither.
Deep Thought
Whatever happens in the Mass. Senate race will confirm what I've been saying all along.
Wrong
The HAMP program has mostly been a failure, and people are just walking away.
I've talked to quite a few people about just why it hasn't made sense for the various stakeholders to be more open to principal modification. I really don't think anyone quite has the definitive answer. Roughly it seems that the incentives for the various people/institutions involved are just completely screwed up. Investors don't want to have to revalue their portfolios, servicers benefit from extending the process because of fees they can charge, etc.
There was never going to be a perfect program, but bankruptcy cramdown was always the best hope to achieve sensible principal modification through an established process.
By the way, the foreclosure crisis? Not even close to being over.
Desperate homeowners scrambling to get a loan modification through federal foreclosure relief programs are beginning to shun the offer, opting for a strictly business approach to the dilemma — walking away.
Because the majority of modifications don't reduce the principal payment on loans made during the overpriced boom years, underwater mortgages could still be drowning 10 years out.
The better option for those borrowers, some say, is to take the hit now and attempt a short sale, deed in lieu, or even allow their home to go into foreclosure.
I've talked to quite a few people about just why it hasn't made sense for the various stakeholders to be more open to principal modification. I really don't think anyone quite has the definitive answer. Roughly it seems that the incentives for the various people/institutions involved are just completely screwed up. Investors don't want to have to revalue their portfolios, servicers benefit from extending the process because of fees they can charge, etc.
There was never going to be a perfect program, but bankruptcy cramdown was always the best hope to achieve sensible principal modification through an established process.
By the way, the foreclosure crisis? Not even close to being over.
If Only They'd Listened To Me
It's true that any principal modification program will have its problems, which is way principal modification through the bankruptcy system was always the best way to go. It isn't a pain free process and it won't reward bad behavior, but it also implicitly recognizes both parties are somewhat to blame (lender and borrower) and can modify debt levels accordingly.
This, of course, was a grand idea a couple of years ago. Oh well.
This, of course, was a grand idea a couple of years ago. Oh well.
Wrong
A point many people make, somewhat in defense of the Obama administration, is that they don't run everything, they must deal with Congress, they have to worry about politics, etc. All of this is true. But that isn't a magical "not our fault" card to be played every time things don't go perfectly. The economic stimulus, at least, is one clear place where they were wrong, not just on the politics or what was possible, but wrong about what was needed and wrong about how bad unemployment was going to get. Krugman.
Why was the stimulus underpowered? A number of economists (myself included) called for a stimulus substantially bigger than the one the administration ended up proposing. According to The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, however, in December 2008 Mr. Obama’s top economic and political advisers concluded that a bigger stimulus was neither economically necessary nor politically feasible.
Their political judgment may or may not have been correct; their economic judgment obviously wasn’t. Whatever led to this misjudgment, however, it wasn’t failure to focus on the issue: in late 2008 and early 2009 the Obama team was focused on little else. The administration wasn’t distracted; it was just wrong.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Really Bad Form
These kinds of press leaks really just make everyone involved look like petty idiots.
It's Always Excellent News For Republicans
I have no idea what will happen in the Mass. Senate race, and obviously a Dem loss would be a big blow for the Dems, but apparently even if Coakley wins it's a big loss for the Dems. Go figure.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Presidents Clinton and W.
This Week has Presidents Clinton and W. You also don't want to miss George's tearjerker of a farewell.
Face the Nation has Presidents Clinton and W.
Very diverse lineup.
This Week has Presidents Clinton and W. You also don't want to miss George's tearjerker of a farewell.
Face the Nation has Presidents Clinton and W.
Very diverse lineup.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Pretty Tough Already
Not something which really impacts me, but I think Pennsylvania's DUI penalties - for those unable to afford lawyers who can get them off of course - are already pretty tough. You only skate a bit on a first time offense with .8-.99 .08-.099 BAC. Anything higher, and any second offenses, and you're getting a 12 month license suspension plus other punishments. Not really sure more is necessary.
But, anyway, just about everyone who drives to drink will at least occasionally drink and drive over the legal limit. Not saying this is a good thing, just inevitable as long as people don't have other options.
But, anyway, just about everyone who drives to drink will at least occasionally drink and drive over the legal limit. Not saying this is a good thing, just inevitable as long as people don't have other options.
Millionaires Don't Worry About Your Health Care
If Massachusetts Senate race is all about health care the revelation that Scott Brown doesn't think his own employees should have health insurance should be illuminating in a public policy sense. He formed his campaign and at some point he figured it wasn't worth insuring the kids who are running around the state on his behalf. For a Republicans like Brown, who owns five houses, health care is a luxury item. They have no clue what people without health insurance live but the world keeps turning and they get richer so the system must work.
Frames
There are times when the frame cracks. Shep Smith after Katrina, for example. But it is a powerful force.
Newspaper Commenters The Same The World Over
Moe sent in this article from Toronto about city living. I was amused that the commenters there are the same as commenters here, interpreting the suggestion that some people choosing to live where they can walk to work might be good for commuters is a demand that all people make similar decisions.
Urban dwellers are your friends, car commuters! They own fewer cars and are less likely to get in your way during your morning commute. No one is forcing you to join them.
Urban dwellers are your friends, car commuters! They own fewer cars and are less likely to get in your way during your morning commute. No one is forcing you to join them.
Still Hungry
FDIC gobbled up a couple more banks yesterday.
St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, MN and
Town Community Bank and Trust, Antioch, IL
St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, MN and
Town Community Bank and Trust, Antioch, IL
Friday, January 15, 2010
Bwahahah! Life Imitating A Cartoon Show
Remember this, from 2003?
Scroll forwards to 2010. Here's Rush Limbaugh on...you guessed it: "Voting Democrat Causes Cancer."
Rupert Murdoch's Fox News Channel threatened to sue the makers of the Simpsons over a spoof news ticker, the show's creator Matt Groening has claimed.
Mr Groening said Fox News raised the unlikely prospect of suing a show broadcast by its sister channel, Fox Entertainment, because it wanted to stop the Simpsons parodying its famously anti-Democratic party agenda.
The alleged row centred on a parody of Fox News' rolling news ticker, which included headlines such as "Do Democrats cause cancer?"
Scroll forwards to 2010. Here's Rush Limbaugh on...you guessed it: "Voting Democrat Causes Cancer."
Another Reason to Take Notice
From Huffington Post:
If his immoral and emotionally stunted stance on gay rights wasn't bad enough, this incident raises even more eyebrows about his judgment and temperament.
In the course of his career, Brown has earned more than a few headlines for playing a conservative role in the ongoing cultural wars. Brown was one of only three members of the heavily Democratic State Senate to vote against a repeal of a state law that barred out-of-state gay couples from marrying in Massachusetts. Later, he would vote for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage - for which he earned the endorsement of the group The Coalition for Marriage -- and he opposed the repeal of the federal Defense of Marriage Act.
If his immoral and emotionally stunted stance on gay rights wasn't bad enough, this incident raises even more eyebrows about his judgment and temperament.
Your Modern GOP
I'll leave it to the tax lawyers to provide a definitive legal answer, but one can't just classify everyone as an independent contractor and make the IRS happy. If you could, well, everyone would be.
On Scott Brown of Massachusetts
A wingnut in sheep's clothing?
Tax cuts. It's the Republican panacea for everything that hurts you, never mind that it was the Bush tax cuts and the associated free-market (read: jungle of the greediest and most reckless) ideology which brought us the current economic recession. I don't see the logic of voting the architects of the collapsing building to be the ones to fix it.
On October 17th, 2001, Brown voted against a bill that would authorize "leaves of absence for certain Red Cross employees participating in Red Cross emergencies." The bill gave 15 days of paid leave each year to state workers called up by the Red Cross to respond to disasters. At the time, state workers called for such emergencies were required to use sick and vacation days.
This suggests an almost-stunning callousness. It's all the more galling that Brown knew it was going to pass -- 148 to 3 -- but opposed it anyway, just to make a point.
I shudder to think what Republicans would say about a Democratic lawmaker who cast a vote like this just a month after the 9/11 attacks
The Brown campaign has said the vote was about fiscal responsibility -- Massachusetts couldn't afford assistance for Red Cross workers who had volunteered with 9/11 recovery efforts.
That's not a bad line, I suppose, but here's my follow-up question: why, then, does Scott Brown recommend tax cuts now that the nation can't afford? Why would tax cuts for the wealthy be more important that help for 9/11 recovery volunteers?
Tax cuts. It's the Republican panacea for everything that hurts you, never mind that it was the Bush tax cuts and the associated free-market (read: jungle of the greediest and most reckless) ideology which brought us the current economic recession. I don't see the logic of voting the architects of the collapsing building to be the ones to fix it.
Sister
I see that Jake Tapper's sister organization will be allowed to take pictures at the Teabagger conference. Jake's own organization? Banned.
They Know More Than That
Krugman says the banksters don't know much. Sadly, they know how to convince the relevant people in the federal government that they are indispensable men.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Great Expectations
A year ago the Obama administration predicted that the unemployment rate would fall to about 6% at the end of 2011 if the stimulus passed.
CBO now sez:
Perhaps someone should do something?
CBO now sez:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at 10 percent, is unlikely to drop below 8 percent before 2012 unless Congress takes further steps to boost the economy in the short term, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said on Thursday.
Perhaps someone should do something?
The Candidate Protecting The Big Banks
It's astonishing that Scott Brown would go out of his way to protect the banks that received TARP from paying back into the system. But loyalty to Wall Street is a core Republican value.
Here's what Michael Steele said today about taxing the banks to recoup TARP money.
The fact is this money has already been paid back by the banksThey should run on that. It's a great message.
Things I Worry About
Chris Bowers:
Something to think about.
Given how easy it is to pressure Arlen Specter from the left during a Democratic primary, isn't it extremely likely that Specter will move to the right in the general election when Toomey is pressuring him instead of Sestak?This primary seems to be really flying under the radar online, for various understandable reasons. And while I'm glad Specter has been behaving himself since he switched parties, the threat of a primary won't last forever.
Something to think about.
Who's Your Daddy Now?
A few days ago Maureen Dowd pined for a strong daddy in the White House, one which would check under our beds for any terrorists.
But it seems that the majority of Americans approve of Obama's handling of terrorism:
Addressing the popular meme that Barack Obama is weak on national security and should act more like America's daddy, Greg Sargent pointed out yesterday that polls on the subject show precisely the reverse sentiment from the American people:
We now have enough polls to call BS on this. Today's Gallup poll finds Obama's rating on terror has actually inched up since the foiled plot. Today's Quinnipiac poll says that 66% view Obama as a "strong leader." Yesterday's CNN poll found that 64% like Obama's personality and leadership qualities.
Yesterday's CBS poll found that 57% approve of Obama on terrorism. Still another poll found that 65% have confidence that Obama will protect them from terror. Is that enough yet?
Just in case it's not enough, Pew released a poll today showing that Obama's ratings on dealing with terrorism are higher than on any other single issue at 51 percent. So can we definitively say that the torture wing of the GOP's assault on the president has been a complete failure?
Could it be that this country is finally growing up?
via echidne
Rush doesn't think he needs to donate to help Haiti, after all, he pays taxes. As on most fact based issues, he's wrong. Only 1.5% of our budget goes to foreign affairs. Not 10% as is widely believed. Of course, he probably believes even 1.5% is too much.
Note: This 1.5% doesn't include wars.
Note: This 1.5% doesn't include wars.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
444K lucky duckies.\
Job market isn't turning around. Unemployment is over 2 percentage points higher than the administration projected a year ago.
Not sensing the fierce urgency of now.
Job market isn't turning around. Unemployment is over 2 percentage points higher than the administration projected a year ago.
Not sensing the fierce urgency of now.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Big Misses
This is what they're paid hundreds of millions for.
By 2006 there were plenty of reasons that the existence of a housing bubble was rather obvious, even if all the details weren't known yet and the eventual consequences weren't completely clear.
My main reason, a rather simple one, was that not nearly enough people had the kind of incomes that allowed them to afford homes at those prices. I know that because the helicopter is not my primary mode of transportation.
However, Dimon cautioned, "You never saw losses in these products, because home prices were going up."
The sector's failure, he added, was the assumption that prices can only go up.
By 2006 there were plenty of reasons that the existence of a housing bubble was rather obvious, even if all the details weren't known yet and the eventual consequences weren't completely clear.
My main reason, a rather simple one, was that not nearly enough people had the kind of incomes that allowed them to afford homes at those prices. I know that because the helicopter is not my primary mode of transportation.
There Goes The Neighborhood
I hope "Philadelphia" means some exurb somewhere in the general vicinity...
The Worst Person In The World
The one thing I probably would be enjoying doing if I were home right now is finding some of the 8 million ways that Harold Ford truly sucks.
Given the way he's spent his time in NYC, he probably thinks the primary mode of transportation for everyone there is helicopter.
Given the way he's spent his time in NYC, he probably thinks the primary mode of transportation for everyone there is helicopter.
Now This Is Fun
Marco Rubio, the very very right-wing Republican candidate for U.S. Senate from Florida tells us his economic theories:
Help
Thanks to Chicago Dyke for the h/t
"The U.S. State Department Operations Center set up the following number for Americans seeking information about relatives in Haiti: (888) 407-4747. The department cautioned that because of heavy volume, some callers may hear a recording. The State Department said those interested in helping immediately may text 'HAITI' to '90999' and a donation of $10 will be made automatically to the Red Cross for relief efforts. The donation will be charged to your cellphone bill. The department also suggested contacting agencies such as the Red Cross or Mercy Corps to help with relief efforts."
"The U.S. State Department Operations Center set up the following number for Americans seeking information about relatives in Haiti: (888) 407-4747. The department cautioned that because of heavy volume, some callers may hear a recording. The State Department said those interested in helping immediately may text 'HAITI' to '90999' and a donation of $10 will be made automatically to the Red Cross for relief efforts. The donation will be charged to your cellphone bill. The department also suggested contacting agencies such as the Red Cross or Mercy Corps to help with relief efforts."
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
More Jam Today, Please
Greg Sargent links to a new CBS poll which suggests that slightly more people find the health care reform proposal too little than find it too much.
This is especially true when it comes to increasing access.
The poll also asks a question about how dissatisfied people are with the way Obama, the Democrats in the Congress and the Republicans in the Congress are handling the bill. It turns out that the respondents are more frustrated by the Republicans (61% dissatisfied) and the Democrats (57% dissatisfied) than Obama himself (54% dissatisfied). No jam for anyone, including the Republicans who are fighting the bill.
This is especially true when it comes to increasing access.
The poll also asks a question about how dissatisfied people are with the way Obama, the Democrats in the Congress and the Republicans in the Congress are handling the bill. It turns out that the respondents are more frustrated by the Republicans (61% dissatisfied) and the Democrats (57% dissatisfied) than Obama himself (54% dissatisfied). No jam for anyone, including the Republicans who are fighting the bill.
Freak Show Vacation
One thing about traveling abroad is that no matter how much time I actually still spend blogging - sometimes a lot, sometimes very little - I find it provides an effective shield against understanding why I should waste 3 seconds bothering my beautiful mind with any of the freak show stuff. And that's a good thing.
Good Luck Sen. Gillibrand
Harold Ford Jr. today:
Harold Ford Jr. is a slimier-than-most politician who wraps himself in sanctimony. Plus, he's a horrible pundit. I've never seen him reject the premise of a question, and as a frequent Fox News contributor, that says a lot.
I am pro-choice -- have always been since I entered politics almost 15 years ago. My cumulative grade with NARAL during 10 years in Congress was right at 80 percent. Any assertions to the contrary are false.Harold Ford Jr. in 2006:
WALLACE: Congressman, you voted for the Iraq war. You're pro-life. You voted to ban gay marriage and flag burning. If a Democrat who votes as a conservative on guns, gays and God can't win this year, in Tennessee, does any Democrat ever chance in a red Southern state?And Harold Ford Jr. in 2006:
FORD: Well, that's why we're going to win, to prove that one, to prove that right. I think the other issue that my opponent has is that he's wrong on taxes. He's never, ever cut a tax in his entire life, not as mayor of Chattanooga or as finance commissioner for our former governor, Don Sundquist, who actually introduced a state income tax.
COLMES: Why would you change your view? You were pro-choice at one time. What happened?And on and on.
FORD:Let me say this. No, no. I was not pro-choice at one time. We don't have votes like that in the Congress, sir. I voted for parental notification. I voted against partial birth abortion. I voted for the procedure my first two or three years in the Congress.
Harold Ford Jr. is a slimier-than-most politician who wraps himself in sanctimony. Plus, he's a horrible pundit. I've never seen him reject the premise of a question, and as a frequent Fox News contributor, that says a lot.
That's a lot of
explosives
Clean up will be hazardous. I watched the bomb squad in NYC approach a suspicious package, in full haz mat gear. Those guys have balls.
Clean up will be hazardous. I watched the bomb squad in NYC approach a suspicious package, in full haz mat gear. Those guys have balls.
Operation Leper
I just happened to stumble upon this golden oldie from the Red State Strike Force. It looks like the Operation Leper spreadsheet is no longer being moderated.
Scroll down and have fun!
Scroll down and have fun!
Sources
Interesting the Times would write so much (a search yields a couple of pages of article references) about fourth hand paraphrases of what a third party claims two people said a couple of years ago.
It doesn't fit in very well with their polices on anonymous sourcing.
Also odd that Reid was the source Halperin and Heilemann chose to burn.
Update: Should have included a link to the actual NYT policies.
It doesn't fit in very well with their polices on anonymous sourcing.
Also odd that Reid was the source Halperin and Heilemann chose to burn.
Update: Should have included a link to the actual NYT policies.
Oh Pay Them Anyway
Some inner-city family probably got an extra food stamp payment, so it all evens out really.
KABUL (AP) -- The U.S. agency overseeing the multibillion dollar Afghanistan reconstruction effort is investigating 38 criminal cases ranging from contract fraud to theft -- most involving non-Afghans, officials said Tuesday.
Field of (my) Screams!
What's a worse crime than trumping up evidence to stage an illegal war that kills tens of thousands, if not more than a million, and costs $2 trillion and counting?
Why not immediately admitting the taking of steroids in baseball, that's what!
Brian Williams opening last night's NBC Nightly News:
Lying is something that can be proclaimed only for what a "baseball player" like Mark McGwire ever did or said. Certainly it cannot be uttered against a mere President, like George Bush.
Not Dick Cheney, not George Bush, not anybody who got us into a war we didn't need to get into at all because because -- no matter what Sarah Palin still says -- Saddam wasn't associated with 9/11, but he was somebody to bomb for fun and profit. No they just acted in "good faith" and no "serious" person can ever proclaim them to be liars. That's just impolite and is reserved only to those who engage in serious endeavors like sporting events.
UPDATE: Just to compare and contrast Mark McGwire with, say, Rudy Giuliani. While McGwire was called a "liar" yesterday, last week when Rudy said there were no domestic terror attacks under George Bush it was said -- hours later -- that he was "not quite correct".
Why not immediately admitting the taking of steroids in baseball, that's what!
Brian Williams opening last night's NBC Nightly News:
Good evening. Because this is a family broadcast, we probably can't say what we'd like to about the news today that Mark McGwire—the home run hitter, the family favorite from the St. Louis Cardinals—stopped lying today and admitted that he did it while on steroids.
Lying is something that can be proclaimed only for what a "baseball player" like Mark McGwire ever did or said. Certainly it cannot be uttered against a mere President, like George Bush.
Not Dick Cheney, not George Bush, not anybody who got us into a war we didn't need to get into at all because because -- no matter what Sarah Palin still says -- Saddam wasn't associated with 9/11, but he was somebody to bomb for fun and profit. No they just acted in "good faith" and no "serious" person can ever proclaim them to be liars. That's just impolite and is reserved only to those who engage in serious endeavors like sporting events.
UPDATE: Just to compare and contrast Mark McGwire with, say, Rudy Giuliani. While McGwire was called a "liar" yesterday, last week when Rudy said there were no domestic terror attacks under George Bush it was said -- hours later -- that he was "not quite correct".
Fuck the Daily Mail
The Daily Mail publishes a bunch of bullshit about how The World Is Freezing. Fox News picks up this bullshit.
And you know what? It's crazy bullshit!
You really have to read this Climate Progress piece -- it's brilliant journalism.
MORE. Oh and this. If someone says to you the name "Monckton," pelt them with garbage until they stop.
And you know what? It's crazy bullshit!
You really have to read this Climate Progress piece -- it's brilliant journalism.
MORE. Oh and this. If someone says to you the name "Monckton," pelt them with garbage until they stop.
Monday, January 11, 2010
The Glamorous Jet Trainsetting Life
Was a travel day for me and now I am ill and in bed in the only marginally comfortable position that allows me to access the wifi.
Implication: not much exciting blogging immediately forthcoming from me.
Implication: not much exciting blogging immediately forthcoming from me.
The Hillary Effect
The Washington Post reported on the increase of female ambassadors to Washington on the front page of its dead trees edition:
Too bad that the online version of the Post has this story under "arts and living."
There are 25 female ambassadors posted in Washington -- the highest number ever, according to the State Department.
"This is breaking precedent," said Selma "Lucky" Roosevelt, a former U.S. chief of protocol.
Women remain a distinct minority -- there are 182 accredited ambassadors in Washington -- but their rise from a cadre of five in the late 1990s to five times that is opening up what had been an elite's men club for more than a century.
A key reason is the increase in the number of top U.S. diplomats who are women, what some call the "Hillary effect."
Too bad that the online version of the Post has this story under "arts and living."
Broderesque jockularity
In one of the bi-partisan fantasies salutes to departing politicians that make up about a third of his columns (the ones that don't quote a right-wing think tank) David Broder says that Chris Dodd is a nice guy.
Well, that's so very important isn't it? But there was one statement that seemed particularly awkward:
So Matlock, who have you done favors for?
Well, that's so very important isn't it? But there was one statement that seemed particularly awkward:
In all that time, I don't recall ever doing a favor for Dodd.
So Matlock, who have you done favors for?
Jobs
Bit behind on economic data, obviously, but as I said at the time the relatively "good" (though still actually bad) jobs number from last month was probably the worst thing which could have happened as it kind of took the wind out of the sails of the doing something ship, letting doing nothing coast to another easy victory.
With another "bad" number this month, which really isn't much worse than last month's but, hey, it's all about perception baby, on one hand we have Romer saying, "The sense that we need to do more is overwhelming," but on the other hand we have Obama saying:
Which is just another way of saying we aren't losing jobs as fast as we used to!! The employment situation doesn't start to improve until job gains start exceeding 100-140K per month. Inflection points aren't worth throwing a party over.
With another "bad" number this month, which really isn't much worse than last month's but, hey, it's all about perception baby, on one hand we have Romer saying, "The sense that we need to do more is overwhelming," but on the other hand we have Obama saying:
- In fact, in November, we saw the first gain in jobs in nearly two years. Last month, however, we slipped back, losing more jobs than we gained, though the overall trend of job loss is still pointing in the right direction.
Which is just another way of saying we aren't losing jobs as fast as we used to!! The employment situation doesn't start to improve until job gains start exceeding 100-140K per month. Inflection points aren't worth throwing a party over.
You Go to the Box and Feel Shame!
Charles Pierce has a blog now, and he seems to be using it to spread Evil Tidings. All Right-Thinking-Folk must be appalled at this news, though as of this moment there is no real confirmation, and is probably merely an instance of the old tactic, the mind-fuck.
As an aside, Mr. Pierce is more than welcome to my blog's old Flann O'Brien tag-line, but only on condition that in future whenever he references Ed Reed, he is careful to use the proper descriptor, which would be "former University of Miami Hurricanes great Ed Reed." (With "great" as the noun, naturally.) This would be more than fair.
To those Eschaton readers who don't care about sports or sports movies, Nathan Fillion playing Ralph Hinckley in a remake of The Greatest American Hero would be The Greatest Fucking American Movie Ever. But only if they don't fuck with the theme song (which I can still sing in its entirety, unless I haven't been drinking). That guy who did Buffy the Vampire Slayer, whatsisname, Judd Apatow, should direct it.
As an aside, Mr. Pierce is more than welcome to my blog's old Flann O'Brien tag-line, but only on condition that in future whenever he references Ed Reed, he is careful to use the proper descriptor, which would be "former University of Miami Hurricanes great Ed Reed." (With "great" as the noun, naturally.) This would be more than fair.
To those Eschaton readers who don't care about sports or sports movies, Nathan Fillion playing Ralph Hinckley in a remake of The Greatest American Hero would be The Greatest Fucking American Movie Ever. But only if they don't fuck with the theme song (which I can still sing in its entirety, unless I haven't been drinking). That guy who did Buffy the Vampire Slayer, whatsisname, Judd Apatow, should direct it.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
And While I'm Linking Digby
I don't doubt Wyoming's having some problems relative to the boom years, but Wyoming is hardly the center of economic misery in this country, with unemployment at 7.2%.
Bad Daddy
They don't just want a daddy, they want a bad daddy, one who occasionally beats up the wife and kids and regularly runs the risk of passing out with a lit cigarette and lighting the homestead on fire.
Why that is, I do not know...
Why that is, I do not know...
Off The Grid
5 days, no TV, no radio, no internets, no newspaper. What happened while I was gone? Did Jonah Goldberg say anything stupid? Ha ha, of course he did! I, fortunately, was blissfully unaware of it.
Sorta back, though not really. Still in my undisclosed location, just not in the secured bunker.
Sorta back, though not really. Still in my undisclosed location, just not in the secured bunker.
Science is for Pansies
The cold weather in Florida and elsewhere obviously means that we should rethink this whole global warming thing. I need a vacation from the ridiculous.
Joe the Plumber
is alive and well and giving speeches in support of Republican candidates at teabagger rallies. The other day in Virginia he told the crowd that the Constitution remains exactly as it was written. I guess he forgot, or never learned, about those pesky amendments.
Cha-Ching
NYT:
I'd like the banksters to explain to every 55 year old whose retirement was destroyed why they deserve so much money.
Bank executives are grappling with a question that exasperates, even infuriates, many recession-weary Americans: Just how big should their paydays be? Despite calls for restraint from Washington and a chafed public, resurgent banks are preparing to pay out bonuses that rival those of the boom years. The haul, in cash and stock, will run into many billions of dollars.
Industry executives acknowledge that the numbers being tossed around — six-, seven- and even eight-figure sums for some chief executives and top producers — will probably stun the many Americans still hurting from the financial collapse and ensuing Great Recession
I'd like the banksters to explain to every 55 year old whose retirement was destroyed why they deserve so much money.
Saturday, January 09, 2010
Europe: The New Evil (And Dying) Empire
That is a popular meme by American conservatives who view Europe as weak, morally corrupt and dying. We all remember the Freedom Fries, eh?
But underlying all those stories about the sinful-yet-fruitless streets of Old Europe is the old conservative fear: That a less capitalistic and more sharing society might actually economically outperform a Wild West one, the kind the conservatives would like to see here. Whether it would turn into a Banana Republic is of no concern to those who would live in the guarded enclosures.
The most recent story in this vein has to do with James Manzi's article in National Affairs:
The story has been eagerly picked up by all sorts of conservative writers. But John Chait and Paul Krugman have doubts about Manzi's data:
Interesting...
But underlying all those stories about the sinful-yet-fruitless streets of Old Europe is the old conservative fear: That a less capitalistic and more sharing society might actually economically outperform a Wild West one, the kind the conservatives would like to see here. Whether it would turn into a Banana Republic is of no concern to those who would live in the guarded enclosures.
The most recent story in this vein has to do with James Manzi's article in National Affairs:
But it is important to see that this robust growth means only that America has not lost ground in global economic competition, not that it has gained much. From 1980 through today, America's share of global output has been constant at about 21%. Europe's share, meanwhile, has been collapsing in the face of global competition — going from a little less than 40% of global production in the 1970s to about 25% today. Opting for social democracy instead of innovative capitalism, Europe has ceded this share to China (predominantly), India, and the rest of the developing world. The economic rise of the Asian heartland is the central geopolitical fact of our era, and it is safe to assume that economic and strategic competition will only increase further over the next several decades.
The story has been eagerly picked up by all sorts of conservative writers. But John Chait and Paul Krugman have doubts about Manzi's data:
But as Jonathan Chait quickly pointed out, Manzi's definition of Europe included the Soviet bloc (!), so that he was attributing to social democracy an economic decline that was mainly about the collapse of communism. Chait also suggested that Manzi wasn't comparing the same dates for America and Europe; and most importantly, Chait pointed out that to the extent there has been a growth divergence, it's almost entirely because America has faster population growth; since 1980, real GDP per capita in Western Europe and the US have grown at almost the same rate.
But I went back to Manzi's source of data, and it turns out that it's even worse than that. If you use the broad definition of Europe, which includes the USSR, it did indeed have 40 percent of world output in the early 1970s. But that share has not fallen to 25 percent — it's still above 30 percent.
The only thing I can think is that Manzi compared Europe including the eastern bloc in 1970 with Europe not including the east today.
Interesting...