BP said there would be just a 21 percent chance that oil would reach Louisiana's coast within a month; in fact the first sheen hit the state in nine days after the rig exploded. The company also said it had more than enough equipment in place to capture any oil before it would hit shore.
If the documents downplay risk to the Gulf coast, they completely ignore the threat beyond. There's no mention of the much-discussed loop current, for example, which could send oil around the Florida peninsula and up the Atlantic Coast.
The 52-page plan BP submitted early last year covering Mississippi Canyon Block 252, the location of the busted well, is particularly disheartening to read in hindsight, after seeing all those pictures of oiled birds and turtles and gunky wetlands and beaches.
Out in the Gulf, a spill might cause "some detrimental effects" on fish habitats, the report concedes, but it would likely be "sub-lethal." Both finfish and shellfish, the company pointed out, can swim away.
They can swim away.