Saturday, July 31, 2010
This Looks Like A Job For The Catfood Commission
Unemployed older (and younger) works are cashing out their 401K plans and other retirement savings. Time to raise the retirement age!
After All These Years
Any crazy right wing shit, even hateful bigoted stuff, is taken seriously by our elite media.
Division
It is painful to see how obviously good and popular public policy (borrow cheaply, hire unemployed people, invest in physical capital) can be so difficult to implement. It is even more painful to see obviously bad and unpopular public policy ( endless counterproductive wars, bankster bonuses, carbon subsidies) continue through what seems to be a combination of graft and inertia.
When it is Democrats who are doing this it is confusing!
Eventually you have to consider the possibility that we are living under the policy regime the controlling factions of the Democratic party prefer.
When it is Democrats who are doing this it is confusing!
Eventually you have to consider the possibility that we are living under the policy regime the controlling factions of the Democratic party prefer.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Bless the Tea Party for Their Profound Contribution to Our National Conversation on Race
Kevin K found this at a very special place on the Internets.
If We Cared About The Women And Children Of The World
It would be far better to spend $100 billion per year granting them political asylum and paying for their transport and relocation to the US than invading their countries and caressing them with our freedom bombs.
Or you could come up thousands of other ways to spend $100 billion all of which would be almost infinitely better than invading their countries and caressing them with our freedom bombs if we cared about the women and children of the world.
So when an asshole like Rick Stengel suggests we must stay in Afghanistan otherwise more girls will be mutilated even though we're currently in Afghanistan and poor girls are still being tragically mutilated, I don't think that's the real reason he thinks we should be there.
Or you could come up thousands of other ways to spend $100 billion all of which would be almost infinitely better than invading their countries and caressing them with our freedom bombs if we cared about the women and children of the world.
So when an asshole like Rick Stengel suggests we must stay in Afghanistan otherwise more girls will be mutilated even though we're currently in Afghanistan and poor girls are still being tragically mutilated, I don't think that's the real reason he thinks we should be there.
The Fortunes Of Democrats
To make an obvious point, the fortunes of Democrats will depend almost entirely on the fact that 9.5% unemployment sucks, people took a tremendous wealth hit due to the housing bubble, and foreclosures are continuing apace. People can have differing opinions on just how much this is the administration's and Democrats' fault, but most voters don't really care.
Everything Liberal Activists Do Is Wrong And Destructive
That's the message I've been hearing from the Very Serious People ever since I started paying attention. I don't know the best way to get more liberal policies and more liberal people in office, but I also don't think the fortunes of Obama and Democrats depend much on how loudly I clap. More than that, if the volume of my clapping is that important then people should be spending a bit more time and money ensuring that I've got an adequate supply of hand lotion to keep my hands in peak clapping form.
Maybe Somebody Should Do Something
CR:
Things are worse than was predicted and have been worse than we thought. I get that the administration is constrained by a Senate which can't even pass a crappy jobs bill filled with tax breaks which won't do much, but they could have done something with HAMP both to help people and to help the broader economy. And they didn't.
If things go well, the economy will be back to pre-recession levels in the 2nd half of 2011. No wonder there is so little investment. And no wonder there is so little hiring!
Things are worse than was predicted and have been worse than we thought. I get that the administration is constrained by a Senate which can't even pass a crappy jobs bill filled with tax breaks which won't do much, but they could have done something with HAMP both to help people and to help the broader economy. And they didn't.
Shorter ADL
Since the existence of Muslims might hurt some bigots' fee fees, they should just go away.
International Adoption Hell
This article is about friends of mine. They were in Kazakhstan for about 6 months, and one of them is still there hoping to finally prevail and be able to take their baby.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Suburban Hellholes
I think (as in imagine, I do not know) there's a lot more property crimes out in the burbs than people are aware of.
When crimes happen in "Philadelphia" they're happening in a big area with 1.5 million people that people have some awareness of. When they happen in "Lower Merion" they don't really register.
ARDMORE, Pa. - July 29, 2010 (WPVI) -- Over the past six weeks, there's been over 23 residential burglaries in Cheltenham and 32 in Lower Merion over the past 2 months.
It's an avalanche of suburban crime that has frustrated the police and rattled residents.
When crimes happen in "Philadelphia" they're happening in a big area with 1.5 million people that people have some awareness of. When they happen in "Lower Merion" they don't really register.
Critics
I don't know what the best pressure point in the administration is, but glad Congress is making some noises about finally exerting some pressure.
Paging Paul Krugman
My econ is a bit rusty and I was never much of a macro guy, but is there any way in which this reasoning makes any sense at all?
The...money...is...sitting...around.
“I think the fear of deflation in and of itself is probably overblown, from my perspective,” Charles I. Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said last week in an interview. He said that inflation expectations were “well anchored” and noted that $1 trillion in bank reserves was sitting at the Fed. “It’s hard to imagine with that much money sitting around, you would have a prolonged period of deflation,” he said.
The...money...is...sitting...around.
At Least From Pesky Bloggers
Interesting that while they're defending their overall efforts, no one really defends HAMP.
The thing is they're sitting on $70+ billion dolllars...they could do something with it.
Criticism of the Obama Administration's mortgage bailout, the Home Affordable Modification Program, is reaching a fever pitch, and I know this because, among other things, the Administration itself appears to be mounting a defense.
Recently, reporters who cover housing were called to the Treasury Department for a "background briefing" by Administration officials, who tried to focus attention on the many, varied Administration efforts to stabilize housing; the message was...it's not all about our modification program.
The thing is they're sitting on $70+ billion dolllars...they could do something with it.
We Are The World's Daddy
The obvious logical flaw in Rick Stengel's WAR FOREVER cover is that abuse of women and children by Taliban-minded folk is... happening. Also happening, freedom bombs. Dead and maimed innocent civilians. Strange inscrutable Afghans who get upset when people bust into their homes in the middle of the night with guns and dogs. Dead US troops.
But nothing good happens without our presence. So stay we will, perhaps until the war machine kicks the soccer ball somewhere else and Stengel dutifully follows it. Obviously the country won't fall for the stealing babies from incubators story again, though you never know...
But nothing good happens without our presence. So stay we will, perhaps until the war machine kicks the soccer ball somewhere else and Stengel dutifully follows it. Obviously the country won't fall for the stealing babies from incubators story again, though you never know...
Your Hopey Changey Moment Of The Day
Sigh.
As for the immigration issue, I heard an NPR report yesterday which suggested that they think if they round up and deport enough people some Republicans might fall in love with them and support a compromise immigration bill. Right.
As for the immigration issue, I heard an NPR report yesterday which suggested that they think if they round up and deport enough people some Republicans might fall in love with them and support a compromise immigration bill. Right.
Even The Homeless Have Cell Phones!!!
There's definitely a strong strain of thinking among elites in this country that the biggest problem this country faces is that our poor people have it just a bit too good. I don't know if this is driving current policy inaction or not, but it's definitely there.
Time Magazine Can't Die Soon Enough
This week's cover is of a girl who had her nose and ears cut off by the Taliban. The cover title is "What Happens If We Leave Afghanistan." Underneath it reads, "Aisha, 18, had her nose and ears cut off last year on orders from the Taliban because she fled abusive in-laws." I leave the logic of this to you, dear readers, as an exercise.
It then has an article agreeing with Limbaugh that the gulf spill is a no big deal.
It then has an article agreeing with Limbaugh that the gulf spill is a no big deal.
Good Times
I can remember when Senators Obama and Clinton voted against a war supplemental. I can even remember when Senator Obama advocated using the regular budget process for funding wars.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Urban Bounty
They aren't hybrids, so seeds can be saved for next year.
Gambling Our Way To Prosperity
I don't have a problem with gambling, just the idea that it's a decent way to raise revenues. Whatever the arguments for or against it, FOUR POINT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR is peanuts and shouldn't even really come into the discussion.
Oh My
People should stop picking on this nice man.
WASHINGTON — The chief executive of Moody's Investors Service sold almost $3 million in company stock this year, and $7.1 million last year, both times right before his company's stock price fell from its peak levels, a McClatchy analysis has found.
In one case, CEO Ray McDaniel sold 100,000 shares of Moody's stock on the same day that the Securities and Exchange Commission notified Moody's that it was under investigation. The notice followed months of federal inquiries into Moody's business practices.
...
However, experts question McDaniel's sales because he had key information about the company's finances that ordinary investors didn't have, because his stock sales' timing is curious, and because Moody's won't disclose when he set the terms of his plan's prearranged stock sales, or whether he changed those terms.
No Clue
Once you get above extreme poverty/unemployment, there are roughly two kinds of households in this country, those which live paycheck to paycheck and those who aren't counting down the days until the next direct deposit shows up every month. Even people who live paycheck to paycheck might be living pretty well, that is those paychecks might be pretty good but they've made housing/transportation/lifestyle choices which still put them at the edge.
I doubt too many senators know what that's like, or know what it's like when you're living paycheck to paycheck and then suddenly no longer have a job.
...adding, commenters not getting my point, which is that even people who are decently well off often live paycheck to paycheck and have all of the associated stresses. I meant no judgment of such people (and in fact count myself among them most of the time).
I doubt too many senators know what that's like, or know what it's like when you're living paycheck to paycheck and then suddenly no longer have a job.
...adding, commenters not getting my point, which is that even people who are decently well off often live paycheck to paycheck and have all of the associated stresses. I meant no judgment of such people (and in fact count myself among them most of the time).
He's Their Governator
There's been surprisingly little national news coverage of the fact that everybody hates Arnold and he's done a good job destroying the state.
Duopoly
The reason it isn't just a business to business concern is that Visa and Mastercard are a duopoly, acting effectively as a monopoly, and absent breaking them up they need to be regulated. The have all the market power, and convenience stores are stuck with them and are unable to negotiate or choose a competitor.
Getting What They Wished For
Well, you're getting rid of all the Latinos.
..and good news.
Katchi's store isn't the only business suffering. The vast shopping center that holds his small shop is almost empty. The Food City supermarket closed this spring. Then the furniture shop. Then the pizzeria.
The giant apartment complex across the street, once brimming with tenants, is two-thirds vacant. Katchi is behind on his rent.
"The business is broken," said Katchi, who has operated his shop at this intersection for 14 years. "After the 29th of July, what happens? Maybe I have to close the store."
..and good news.
Among the provisions U.S. District Judge Susan Bolton put on hold are the "reasonable suspicion" section that would allow police to arrest and detain suspected illegal immigrants without a warrant. She also temporarily blocked the part of the law requiring the carrying of federal immigration documents.
Extend, Gouge, And Pretend
HAMP was announced with great fanfare, a big budget, and a promise that the program could help millions of homeowners. Instead it's mostly gouged desperate people, extracting a few more mortgage payments out of them while doing little to help them.
I don't know if this is how the program designers intended it to work, but either way it's wrong. Heckuva job.
I don't know if this is how the program designers intended it to work, but either way it's wrong. Heckuva job.
We'll Do Nothing Until It's Too Late
Mark Thoma:
To reduce the chance of this happening, policymakers should have already put policies in place to provide additional stimulus as insurance against this outcome. But they will wait until another dip actually happens before even beginning to deliberate seriously, and by then it will be too late for policy to do much to offset the dip in the economy. Thus, even though it will be too late to get insurance once the economy is already evidently sick -- insurance that is a bargain due to low interest rates -- we have decided to go forward uninsured, and hope for the best.
Doing It Wrong
Not Just The Math, The Plan
Krugman says "we" knew the stimulus wasn't big enough because of the math. You know who else knew the stimulus wasn't big enough? Larry Summers.
I have no idea why someone who thought stimulus would be effective would think that a too small "insurance package" was a good idea, but we fix the economy with the awful rulers we have not the ones we want.
The best estimate for the output gap was some two trillion dollars over 2009 and 2010. Because of the multiplier effect, filling that gap didn’t require two trillion dollars of government spending, but Romer’s analysis, deeply informed by her work on the Depression, suggested that the package should probably be more than $1.2 trillion. The memo to Obama, however, detailed only two packages: a five-hundred-and-fifty-billion-dollar stimulus and an eight-hundred-and-ninety-billion-dollar stimulus. Summers did not include Romer’s $1.2-trillion projection. The memo argued that the stimulus should not be used to fill the entire output gap; rather, it was “an insurance package against catastrophic failure.”
I have no idea why someone who thought stimulus would be effective would think that a too small "insurance package" was a good idea, but we fix the economy with the awful rulers we have not the ones we want.
Morning, Morning
114 Congresscritters voted against funding the wars/. I guess it's a start. I was hoping for better.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Run Away
Laws and potential consequences vary from state to state, but no one should feel any guilt or remorse about walking way from an underwater house, especially if you've made good faith attempts to negotiate with lenders.
Excellent Job Opportunities Available
I mentioned recently that I had been rather annoyed at all of the assholes who hated on my local transit authority bus drivers because they had the temerity to earn FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS PER YEAR. Well now you too can drive a bus.
Tony Haz A Sad
His poor fee fees are hurt.
The outgoing boss of BP believes he was "demonised and vilified" over the firm's Gulf of Mexico oil spill crisis.
SUPERTRAINS
People actually ride the things.
Amtrak’s total June revenue rose 17 percent from June of last year to $163.4 million. Revenue on its Northeast Corridor, which runs from Washington to Boston, rose 12 percent from a year earlier. Ticket sales on its high-speed Acela line were up 16 percent.
Amtrak’s June ridership system-wide was 2.6 million passengers in June, up 9.3 percent.
Surprisingly Good At First, But Then There Was That Other Thing
I agree - and have written several times - that after 9/11 Bush was surprisingly good about limiting the general anti-Muslim hate. However that did all kinda fall apart with the whole AL QAEDA AND SADDAM ARE THE SAME stuff which ended up lumping all arabsandmuslimsandswarthybrownpeople together.
Structural Unemployment
Just to clarify what I wrote earlier, I think most arguments about structural unemployment are bullshit and are just an excuse to do nothing other than gawk at the misery of millions of unemployed people. Residential construction workers have have skills that could easily be employed doing other perfectly useful things. But the one argument I don't think is bullshit is the hysteresis one, that long term unemployment does eventually increase the amount of structural unemployment.
They'll Be Back Tomorrow
One big mystery to me about the catfood commission is that there are people who think that all they need to do is find some "fix" which will allow Social Security to be scored as "solvent" for 75 years and then we'll all join hands and sing and all political controversy about the issue will disappear forever.
The people on the Right want to destroy Social Security and steal all the money. That's their goal. And if something the catfood commission proposes is actually passed, they'll get right back to work on their goals.
The people on the Right want to destroy Social Security and steal all the money. That's their goal. And if something the catfood commission proposes is actually passed, they'll get right back to work on their goals.
We Painted All Those Schools Right?
Not especially shocked that no one has any idea what we did with all the money, but it does remind me of that multi-year period where it seemed that we invaded Iraq in order to free Iraqi schoolchildren from the tyranny of peeling paint.
Telling Us What We Need To Know
It's long struck me that when the internet decided to destroy journalism, the journalist class had a choice. They could have made the point that they were important because they were skilled at compiling and communicating what might interest people, or they could cling to their AUTHORITAH and claim they were important gatekeepers, deciding what the rabble should know. They chose the latter, and now they wonder why we don't applaud.
Hysteresis
Economists are, sadly, very quick to embrace the "new normal" and start babbling about "structural unemployment" as an excuse to do nothing, but, yes, long term unemployment does start to increase structural unemployment.
Oh well, nothing to be done. Move along.
Oh well, nothing to be done. Move along.
Muddying The Waters
Years later, I continue to be very confused about just what journalists think they're for.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Monday Night
Question for the week: Just who is responsible for the clusterfuck that is HAMP and why does this person still have a job?
Inscrutable
What's really weird is that the people of Afghanistan have a very odd culture, one which leads them to get upset when foreign powers kill innocent people.
Wacky Afghanis!
Wacky Afghanis!
Bringing The Band Back Together
Netroots Nation also provides a slightly weird reminder of just how long I've been doing this bloggy thing. There are just a large number of people, some I know well, some not, who I have a long weird shared history with.
I've been doing this about as long as the Beatles were releasing albums. Yes I am comparing myself to the Beatles.
I've been doing this about as long as the Beatles were releasing albums. Yes I am comparing myself to the Beatles.
Just What Is This Affirmative Action You Speak Of
As Adam suggests, when people blather on about affirmative action they should be specific about just what they're talking about. Aside from minority contracting rules and some civil service bonuses, there just isn't all that much of it that amounts to much more than occasionally HR people looking around the room and recognizing that if they give all their friends' kids the summer internships they aren't likely to have too many black people in the hiring pipeline. I'm exaggerating a bit, of course, but not all that much.
Beware Of The Bond Vigilantes. Also, Unicorns
At 3% it's practically a crime for the government not to borrow absurd amounts of money and spend it on good stuff.
Must Love SEPTA
As I've written before (After 8+ years of blogging I think I've written everything before), my local transit authority is hilariously flawed, but nonetheless it's one of the greatly underappreciated features of my urban hellhole. Took the airport train home last night, and while it should run a bit more often, it's a reasonably quick way back into the city. Land use hasn't adjusted appropriately everywhere, and it's underutilized for some other reasons, but with two subways, 6 urban trolley lines, 2 suburban trolley lines, and a dozen or so rail lines, it ain't bad. Though as I don't really depend on it I get to be amused rather than inconvenienced by its flaws.
We Love The Brits
It's been fascinating to me how BP has apparently quite wrongly perceived that some antipathy to them is due to the fact that they're British. We're Americans! We're all Anglophiles! We implicitly trust anyone with a British accent!
Funny that they don't get that. We don't hate you because you're British, we hate you because you destroyed the Gulf.
Funny that they don't get that. We don't hate you because you're British, we hate you because you destroyed the Gulf.
Junk Loans
At a lunch with [namedropping alert] Jeff Merkley, I brought up the point that a lot of the discussion about small business lending has conflated two issues. Bloomberg:
A big issue is that a lot of small businesses have seen their short term credit lines dry up. Arguably (I don't know and don't know if the person quoted knows) these are the "least qualified" businesses in the sense that they are struggling short term, but they're struggling in part because a lot of them have had their credit lines suddenly yanked at the wrong moment. If you're planning to get through a rough patch by drawing on a $30K credit line which you thought you had, but then suddenly it's gone, you're pretty screwed.
This is a separate issue from whether healthy businesses have troubles getting loans to expand their businesses in this exciting economy.
Bankers say the problem isn’t scarce credit, it’s lack of demand from creditworthy firms in a weak economy. The result may be more loans given to distressed firms and higher losses. While bank regulators don’t compile default rates, the biggest lenders have charge-offs of 4 percent to 14 percent tied to small businesses. Eliot Stark, managing director at Capital Insight Partners Inc., said their credit record resembles “junk.”
“The highest demand for loans is from the companies least qualified, the companies that have really struggled because of the economic downturn,” said Stark, a former Comerica Inc. executive whose Chicago-based investment bank helps community lenders raise capital. The way lawmakers see it, “everyone’s a good borrower, and that’s just not the case.”
A big issue is that a lot of small businesses have seen their short term credit lines dry up. Arguably (I don't know and don't know if the person quoted knows) these are the "least qualified" businesses in the sense that they are struggling short term, but they're struggling in part because a lot of them have had their credit lines suddenly yanked at the wrong moment. If you're planning to get through a rough patch by drawing on a $30K credit line which you thought you had, but then suddenly it's gone, you're pretty screwed.
This is a separate issue from whether healthy businesses have troubles getting loans to expand their businesses in this exciting economy.
Not Just About Fee Fees
While it's true that political movements need a bit of care and feeding, it's also true that there are some legitimate reasons to be angry at the administration over policies they have no excuses for.
HAMP has been a disaster. It should be a story, but political reporters don't seem to care.
HAMP has been a disaster. It should be a story, but political reporters don't seem to care.
Brutal Fisticuffs
They won't stop bugging Sherrod until they find she has an unpaid parking ticket which will somehow PROVE that she IS A GIANT RACIST.
No it does not make sense. It never makes any sense. But attention must be paid, so the WaPo ombudsman will do so.
No it does not make sense. It never makes any sense. But attention must be paid, so the WaPo ombudsman will do so.
Verification
While I applaud the general thrust of Kevin's post, I think it's wrong to see credit card fraud as the fault of careless people leaving their credit cards around. More than that, even if that was the case, I assume there's some point to the whole signature verification thing. But in any case I've been the victim of people using my cards a few times. I think once a new card was stolen from the mail. The rest of the times I think it was all online purchases and I have no idea how they got the information.
Survivor Bias
Answer to why journalists in a declining industry are so unsympathetic to the unemployed.
Though still haven't figured out why unionized journalists hate unions.
Though still haven't figured out why unionized journalists hate unions.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
What's It All About Then
I'm sure some revelations will be stunning and horrifying, and maybe even prompt some discussion of just what the hell we're doing there, but as has been clear for some time, the people who have 24/7 to try to come up with a basic description of what the hell we're doing there haven't managed to do so.
This is totally random and mostly unrelated to the post, but I was hunting for something else and came across this. Nothing's changed.
This is totally random and mostly unrelated to the post, but I was hunting for something else and came across this. Nothing's changed.
What The Netroots Really Should Be Doing
One slightly annoying thing about netroots nation type events is that they always come with a reasonable dose of that kind of discussion. It isn't that I'm not open to any advice, but often the advice giver fails to realize that "the netroots" does lots of different things and it's kinda dumb to try to channel it all into the One Best Activity.
Stories Not Told Often Enough
At the foreclosure panel I went to, HuffPo's Ryan Grim, who had been inteviewing people around town, told the story of a 50something guy who was going to lose a house he'd put $100K down on. A lot of the Tales Of Foreclosure Hell have focused on people who bought houses with little money down and who therefore in some sense didn't lose much, but there are a lot of people who did lose/will lose their life savings over this.
I get the occasional angry email because I'm not hopey changey enough, but right now I'm angry at the administration over HAMP. It was their baby, it didn't require Congressional action of any kind, and when it was introduced the usual suspects said it was unlikely to help people. More than that, it's actually hurting people, extracting payments during the extend and pretend period before finally chucking people out.
At this point, walking away for underwater homeowners unable to meet their payments who have been given the run around by the government and their lenders shouldn't simply be seen as a rational economic choice (check state laws, get some advice before doing so), but also as a noble act of civil disobedience. The system failed, and the government failed to help.
I get the occasional angry email because I'm not hopey changey enough, but right now I'm angry at the administration over HAMP. It was their baby, it didn't require Congressional action of any kind, and when it was introduced the usual suspects said it was unlikely to help people. More than that, it's actually hurting people, extracting payments during the extend and pretend period before finally chucking people out.
At this point, walking away for underwater homeowners unable to meet their payments who have been given the run around by the government and their lenders shouldn't simply be seen as a rational economic choice (check state laws, get some advice before doing so), but also as a noble act of civil disobedience. The system failed, and the government failed to help.
The New Normal
I really don't know how people expect this country to survive with these trends.
Unlike banksters, who did not have their pay renegotiated to $14/hour, autoworkers actually do something useful in society.
Yet they fall into distinctly unequal classes: About half make $28 an hour or more, while the rest, the recently hired, make $14.
This oddity, which could become the norm in much of the domestic U.S. auto industry, arises from the jury-rigged labor agreement that the United Auto Workers, U.S. automakers and the federal government reached during the industry's near-death experience last year.
Unlike banksters, who did not have their pay renegotiated to $14/hour, autoworkers actually do something useful in society.
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has Timmeh and Gov. Christie
CBS has Abigail Thernstrom, Michael Dyson, and Cornel West.
Meet the Press has Timmeh, Anita Dunn, and Marc Morial.
Document the atrocities!
Next year's Netroots Nation will be in Minneapolis.
CBS has Abigail Thernstrom, Michael Dyson, and Cornel West.
Meet the Press has Timmeh, Anita Dunn, and Marc Morial.
Document the atrocities!
Next year's Netroots Nation will be in Minneapolis.
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Evening Thread
Couple outs away from my local sports franchise winning my roulette losses back for me.
The Forgotten Foreclosure Crisis
About to attend panel with that title (with Merkley, Warren, dday, and Ryan Grim). Maybe a few more people will remember.
..sadly, Merkley won't take the bait from Ryan Grim and say who should be fired over HAMP. Dday says Gene Sperling should go.
...dday makes point that HAMP program isn't just failing, it's hurting liberalism, as needy people are confronted with this complicated "government" program which ultimately just hurts them.
...streaming.
...Warren reminding us that first wave of crappy ARM mortgages were refinances marketed to minority and elderly homeowners. I first realized we had a giant fucking problem at an ACORN presidential candidate forum where practically every audience member with a question was talking about this problem.
..sadly, Merkley won't take the bait from Ryan Grim and say who should be fired over HAMP. Dday says Gene Sperling should go.
...dday makes point that HAMP program isn't just failing, it's hurting liberalism, as needy people are confronted with this complicated "government" program which ultimately just hurts them.
...streaming.
...Warren reminding us that first wave of crappy ARM mortgages were refinances marketed to minority and elderly homeowners. I first realized we had a giant fucking problem at an ACORN presidential candidate forum where practically every audience member with a question was talking about this problem.
How Many Extensions
It is of course good that the unemployment benefits extension passed, but it's going to have to be revisited yet again in November. And after January we're presumably going to need more than Presidents Snowe and Collins to continue passing such things.
NAH NAH NAH NAH I CAN'T HEAR YOU
Jan Schakowsky, one of the presumably good members of the Catfood Commission, just mentioned the introduced House bill for a public option, pointing out that having one will save money. This is a fact that her catfood commission members are unlikely to acknowledge, preferring instead to make construction workers retire at 70 remain unemployed and penniless for several years before their Social Security benefits kick in.
Accountable For What?
Just adding to the post below, ever since I've been blogging - anonymously at first, and then not - I've been hearing journalists talk about the need for people on the internets to be "held accountable."
Again...what kind of accountability? Jail time for being mean on the internets? Basically it comes down to "people who annoy me should get fired for stuff they do when not on the job."
Phillips announced: "something is going to have to be done legally. . . . these people have to be held accountable, they're a bunch of cowards." [The most noteworthy part of this might actually have come toward the end, when Roberts -- out of absolutely nowhere -- volunteered this creepy confession: "I always caution young people: never post a naked photograph of yourself on the Internet"; if there's anything needing greater attention, it might be Roberts' bizarre propensity for walking around starting conversations with "young people" about that].
Again...what kind of accountability? Jail time for being mean on the internets? Basically it comes down to "people who annoy me should get fired for stuff they do when not on the job."
No We Can't
I know I have a boring, gloomy, and repetitive blog these days, but it's hard not to be depressed as I come to the realization that there are significant numbers of people in positions of power who seem to be under the impression that 9%+ unemployment for the next 18 months is ok.
Friday, July 23, 2010
Maybe Somebody Should Do Something
ugh.
When the administration had the stimulus passed, the economic emergency which prompted it was projected to have unemployment peak at 9% and fall to just about 7% by the end of 2011. Without the stimulus.
This is so goddamn depressing, though Van Jones said I should clap louder.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The White House said Friday it expects that unemployment will stay at or above 9% until 2012, but at the same time forecast that the economy will grow by at least 4% in 2011 and 2012.
When the administration had the stimulus passed, the economic emergency which prompted it was projected to have unemployment peak at 9% and fall to just about 7% by the end of 2011. Without the stimulus.
This is so goddamn depressing, though Van Jones said I should clap louder.
Miserable Failure
HAMP has just allowed banks to squeeze a few more mortgage payments out of people before screwing them. Whether this is bug or feature I do not know, but either way the person responsible for this program should be fired.
How Did You Get Your Summer Internship
The basic issue is that while class impacts us all, race impacts us differently. It's perfectly fine to acknowledge that non-minority poor people get the shit end of the stick, too, but minority poor people... generally have it even worse. And wealthy minorities also have it worse, relative to wealthy whites. Policy wise, for me, that means doing more for poor people rather than fretting about imaginary affirmative action programs which barely exist in most of the real world
Cars Take Up An Immense Amount Of Space
It's good (to me! I know most of you don't care) that the conversation is finally shifting a little bit from "not enough parking is the problem" to "maybe too much parking is a problem.
Another consequence of single use zoning is that immense amount of space devoted to parking is empty most of the time. With mixed use zoning, parking can, to some degree, have a double duty, serving workers and shoppers during the day and residents during the evening.
Another consequence of single use zoning is that immense amount of space devoted to parking is empty most of the time. With mixed use zoning, parking can, to some degree, have a double duty, serving workers and shoppers during the day and residents during the evening.
Also, All The Deficit Peacocks
The public option is good policy and deficit reducing. Which I suppose is why it didn't happen. Funny how things work these days.
Paint It White
I'm sure there are very good reasons a stupid hippy like me can't understand why the government can't directly hire thousands of people to go knock on doors and paint roofs white, but I have no idea what they are.
Curious
It isn't something I follow closely generally, but I am a bit confused why the looming specter of EPA regulation hasn't melted some opposition to a decent climate/energy bill.
Deflation
Increasingly a real possibility, meaning the Fed is failing at both price stability and full employment.
Heckuva job!
Heckuva job!
Thursday, July 22, 2010
There Is Still No Crisis
Was at Social Security panel, as people are gearing up for the inevitable fight against the catfood commission. Good panel on the whole, but was rather distressed with the chosen messaging by the coalition which was "Don't cut it, strengthen it." As we knew last time we dealt with this crap, once you concede something has to be done you ensure some sort of horrible "compromise" will happen. When pushed on this by Sam Seder, there wasn't much more than spluttering in response.
Complete Failure
It's not a subject the political press ever covers, but Obama's HAMP program was a complete failure. The people responsible should lose their jobs.
The watchdog of the federal bailout efforts criticized efforts under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), saying the number of borrowers receiving modifications remains "anemic."
Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (SIGTARP), in its quarterly report (download here), noted fewer than 400,000 permanent modifications through HAMP so far. As of June 30, a total 753,275 mortgages were being modified, either permanently or on trial basis.
House of Pain
Depressing and likely.
But if the technical challenge of depression prevention has rudely announced itself unsolved, the current crisis has also reawakened a long-obscured, but far more profound debate about the very nature of cyclical capitalism. That is: Are economic contractions, like the one we're currently experiencing, a good thing?
You won't hear this question asked in most mainstream political discussion of the crisis. It would be career suicide for any elected official to suggest that the widespread stress, misery and heartache being wreaked by the precipitous contraction were are a good thing. But scratch the surface a bit and you'll find a surprisingly vibrant school of thought, one that reaches back all the way back to the Great Depression, that holds precisely this view.
Panel
At 1:30 Eastern Time I'll be on a panel with Ray LaHood, David Alpert, and Radhika Fox, discussing my plants to forcibly relocate you all to vertical FEMA camps in Manhattan.
It'll be streaming here so you can watch all the excitement.
It'll be streaming here so you can watch all the excitement.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still quite high...
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 464,000 in the week ended July 17, the Labor Department said on Thursday, more than erasing a decline in the prior week.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 445,000 from the previously reported 429,000 in the July 10 week, which was revised slightly down to 427,000 in Thursday's report.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Then Maybe You Should Do Something?
The powers that be are, for the moment, fine with high unemployment. It's their world, we just live in it.
The chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, said Wednesday that the recovery was continuing at a modest pace, though with a “somewhat weaker outlook.”
He projected that the unemployment rate would remain well above 7 percent through the end of 2012, and the duration of President Obama’s current term.
Big Problems, Simple Solutions
As this recession drags out, we'll probably see more and more people arguing that this just the new normal, that we face new "structural unemployment," that what we can really do for unemployed 58 year olds is give them exciting "job training" so they can learn exciting new skills, blah blah blah.
When all we really need to do is boost aggregate demand by a lot.
When all we really need to do is boost aggregate demand by a lot.
Some Good Stuff
Locating offices near transit and allowing more telecommuting are smart moves.
The government also plans to cut indirect emissions by controlling its heating and cooling systems and by promoting recycling programs, officials said. Agencies also will locate future office space closer to public transit systems. Tuesday's orders are part of a broader effort to cut direct emissions by 28 percent by 2020, based on 2008 figures.
Some federal workers may find themselves giving up their commute at least some of the time. The White House is also backing legislation supporting teleworking, a move it says should save millions of dollars in lost productivity during weather events and cut down on air pollution and commuter costs. A bill approved by the House last week expands work-at-home options and requires agencies to appoint a telework manager. The Senate passed a similar bill in May.
Not Just About Speed
Of course speed is an issue, but there's too much focus on speed in discussions of things like streetcars. Within city distances are fairly small and their value is more in reducing cars on the road and giving people a way to get around with using one.
We're From The Government, We're Here To Paint Your Roof
Yes I'm repeating myself, but if only there was some way to hire lots of people to go door to door and turn all the black roofs white. It would be good stimulus, good for climate change, good for energy costs, good for a whole bunch of stuff. I suppose that's why it isn't happening.
Black People Are Scary And Racist And Get All The Good Stuff White People Deserve
That's the basic narrative being pushed, directly and indirectly, by the Right with all of the various Breitbarty fake scandals. It is seriously depressing to watch the media be quick to bite on them, slow to correct (though much better on this one), and eager for the next one. Even more depressing is that people in the administration are actually frightened by these people, whose audiences will never ever vote for Democrats no matter what anyway.
Internets ON A PLANE
This is novel, didn't realize USAir did such a thing. Now I can never escape the intertubes.
Another Edition of What Digby Said
Again, this is from a few days ago, but deserves some attention. The new high risk insurance pool will not cover abortion services except in cases of rape, incest or the *life* of the mother. This is Stupak on steroids. It seems to have come about because some right wing groups started rumors that the pool would cover abortions so to avoid a battle, the regs were just written to exclude abortion for sick women, who almost by definition, will have health problems carrying the pregnancy to term. Sorry, ladies. Best to just keep your legs crossed.
And yes, I know a woman can still obtain an abortion if she can afford it, but with health complications, it will be far more expensive than a visit to your local Planned Parenthood clinic.
And yes, I know a woman can still obtain an abortion if she can afford it, but with health complications, it will be far more expensive than a visit to your local Planned Parenthood clinic.
What Digby said
This is from a few days ago, but it is the most complete compendium of refutations of the various Social Security Zombie Lies that I've seen.
No, life expectancy at age 65 has not changed all that much, and those changes were anticipated.
No, the beneficiary/taxpayer ratio is not an important issue.
No, you can't do better investing the money in private sector funds (and people wouldn't do it anyway. 25-year-olds do not save 15% of their gross for retirement).
I'm hoping that Digby's panel on this topic is on the list of ustreamed content from NetRoots Nation.
No, life expectancy at age 65 has not changed all that much, and those changes were anticipated.
No, the beneficiary/taxpayer ratio is not an important issue.
No, you can't do better investing the money in private sector funds (and people wouldn't do it anyway. 25-year-olds do not save 15% of their gross for retirement).
I'm hoping that Digby's panel on this topic is on the list of ustreamed content from NetRoots Nation.
$25, $250, What's The Diff?
No time to check the other numbers, but as asserted the per person amount is $250, not $25.
Good enough for journalism!
Good enough for journalism!
Easy Answers to Simple Questions
The WaPo has a hard question.
Love,
Thers
A fuzzy video of an Agriculture Department official opened a new front Tuesday in the ongoing war between the left and right over which side is at fault for stoking persistent forces of racism in politics.The people deliberately posting ludicrously chopped up videos to whip up anti-government reverse-racism paranoia are being pretty damn racist.
Love,
Thers
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Night Thread
Very early flight for me tomorrow, so sucky if any blogging in the AM.
Airport train runs early, bus to airport train does not.
Your public transit system sucks.
Airport train runs early, bus to airport train does not.
Your public transit system sucks.
100% Vilsack's Call
To fire Sherrod, sez the White House according to Jake Tapper, although it's not clear exactly what that says. Meaning, in some sense of course it was his call although that doesn't mean there was or wasn't White House involvement.
...and Vilsack is a tremendous dick.
...Sherrod says USDA's Cook told her it was what the White House wanted.
...and Vilsack is a tremendous dick.
...Sherrod says USDA's Cook told her it was what the White House wanted.
TWELVE DOLLARS PER HOUR
I've been mulling over that recent NYT article which had some business owner complaining that he couldn't get skilled (!) manufacturing workers to work for $12/hour.
At full time with no vacations that's about $25K/year.
When I was in college, I could reliably get summer temp jobs paying $9-10/hr based on my modest typing and basic word processor skills. The BLS's CPI calculator tells me that $9/hour then is about $15/hr now. As I said, my typing skills were modest (reasonably fast, but very sloppy and typewriters were still in use) and my word processing software skills were about at the level of ...typing and printing. And I was 19.
At full time with no vacations that's about $25K/year.
When I was in college, I could reliably get summer temp jobs paying $9-10/hr based on my modest typing and basic word processor skills. The BLS's CPI calculator tells me that $9/hour then is about $15/hr now. As I said, my typing skills were modest (reasonably fast, but very sloppy and typewriters were still in use) and my word processing software skills were about at the level of ...typing and printing. And I was 19.
Not Looking Good For Breitbart?
Actually it's looking great for Breitbart. He won the day, ruined an innocent woman's life, and a willing media will wait for his next scalp.
It's not looking great for Tom Vilsack, who sadly still has his job.
It's not looking great for Tom Vilsack, who sadly still has his job.
Watch Out White House Staffers
One of the under reported stories of the 90s was just how much Starr's merry band of lawyers totally fucked over relatively lowly White House staffers in the Great Clinton Cock Hunt. That was largely through subpoenas and lawyer bills, but lacking subpoena power the Right has now turned to a credulous news media and the power of selectively edited video to go after random government officials.
Apparently Glenn Beck and Andrew Breitbart rule Tom Vilsack's world. Heckuva job.
Apparently Glenn Beck and Andrew Breitbart rule Tom Vilsack's world. Heckuva job.
Other People Are Disgusting
One of the weirder (to me) arguments one sees around the internet about how public transit is awful and Americans (upper class white Americans) will never use it is that riding public transportation puts you in the presence of other human beings who are hideous and disgusting and gross.
People is weird.
People is weird.
WOLVERINES
Also, Arab men are wacky and get upset when people bust in their homes in the middle of the night with guns. This is one of those strange cultural things which make them inscrutable.
Still once we kill all of the ones who want us to leave, then we can go.
Still once we kill all of the ones who want us to leave, then we can go.
Low Rent City
Obviously condo living has an appeal for some of the population, but for a million bucks you can buy yourself a giant house in a premium location in the urban hellhole.
Monday, July 19, 2010
What To Do About Congestion
Here's some happy hour econ nerdery. You hear a lot of talk about congestion pricing of central city areas, but a simpler way to think about the congestion problem is that of a highway headed from the burbs to the city center. During rush hours, the highway experiences a lot of congestion, meaning that there are too many drivers on the road. More than that, such congestion is an unpriced externality, meaning that absence some sort of intervention, we have "too much" congestion relative to some social optimum. One thing you can do about this is institute congestion pricing, tolling at peak hours specifically so that some people change their route or the timing of their trip. Alternatively, if there are other routes - say a SUPERTRAIN - which don't really experience congestion, you can equivalently subsidize that uncongested route, pricing below marginal cost. In practice, given that the marginal cost of providing an additional person a train trip is about zero, this would actually involve giving trips away or paying people to ride it.
Also, roads don't actually pay for themselves. Neener.
Also, roads don't actually pay for themselves. Neener.
Um
Kudos to Hoboken for taking steps to reducing the number of cars in the city, not because I hate cars but because they take up a lot of space and create congestion. The reporter writes about it as if it's some sort of alien behavior, even though Zipcar is all over NYC.
Availability of cars in on street spots makes them somewhat more convenient, but it isn't necessary. Surface lots and parking garages work, too. More than that, given the immense amount of free on street parking available in New York, providing designated spots for free or cheap would be a policy choice unrelated to the price of pedicures.
But, yes, as the article suggests, for many urban hellhole dwellers who have but don't need cars, a decent, convenient, and relatively inexpensive carsharing system makes it easy to get rid of the car.
So could something like Corner Cars work in New York? Well, it’s complicated.
Alternate side of the street parking would be one obstacle. So would the great variety in New York’s neighborhoods, not all of which are good candidates for this service.
The most obvious obstacle is that in New York, space comes at a premium. Hoboken lets Hertz have those curbside parking spots for $100 a month each. But in New York? Please, that’s less than the cost of some pedicures.
Availability of cars in on street spots makes them somewhat more convenient, but it isn't necessary. Surface lots and parking garages work, too. More than that, given the immense amount of free on street parking available in New York, providing designated spots for free or cheap would be a policy choice unrelated to the price of pedicures.
But, yes, as the article suggests, for many urban hellhole dwellers who have but don't need cars, a decent, convenient, and relatively inexpensive carsharing system makes it easy to get rid of the car.
It's Something
CR:
I'm modestly optimistic it will pass, but at this magnitude it's more "helping people who need it" than "stimulus," though it's the latter too. Every bit helps...
It looks like the only additional stimulus will be an extension of the emergency unemployment benefits - and even that isn't clear.
I'm modestly optimistic it will pass, but at this magnitude it's more "helping people who need it" than "stimulus," though it's the latter too. Every bit helps...
The Good Old Days
No I don't think we're ready for some serious Bush nostalgia, but it is the case that the Bush economy through much of his presidency, while not as awesome as the press often portrayed it, was... better than it is now.
New York Is Really Large
Was traveling this weekend, poking around some corners of New York I hadn't really been to before. That city, and its subway system, really just never ends.
If you're in town, head to Flushing for the eats.
If you're in town, head to Flushing for the eats.
I Blame Irish Policymakers
They believed the bullshit, and saved the banksters on the backs of workers. They had other choices. Maybe not all awesome choices, but choices other than saving the banksters and screwing workers. Their reward? Economic contraction and debt downgrade. Heckuva job!
For awhile the very serious people touted the Irish success. So successful!
For awhile the very serious people touted the Irish success. So successful!
Oh Well
It occurs to me that some crazy hippies thought that a massive overreaction to 9/11, including pointless wars and massive expansion of the security state, might not be such a good idea. Well, nobody could have predicted. Bygones.
Actually Important
I wasn't meaning to minimize the importance of the WaPo story by saying there was nothing especially surprising. Verifying and going into detail on not very surprising things can be an especially important thing to do, particularly on the front page of the Village rag. There are lots of important takeaways, but Greenwald provides a succint version of an important one from the national security perspective:
Whatever the initial thoughts behind any of this stuff, it's a tremendous waste of money and resources which, as I said below, can't possibly, in the net, be useful. It serves to transfer money and power to elites while cementing the existence of a giant and extremely opaque patronage system. One with surveillance capabilities.
Something only civil liberties extremists like Greenwald should worry about.
[W]e keep sacrificing our privacy to the National Security State in exchange for less security.
Whatever the initial thoughts behind any of this stuff, it's a tremendous waste of money and resources which, as I said below, can't possibly, in the net, be useful. It serves to transfer money and power to elites while cementing the existence of a giant and extremely opaque patronage system. One with surveillance capabilities.
Something only civil liberties extremists like Greenwald should worry about.
SoCal's Loss, DC's Gain
I knew someone who went back to school after the military-industry complex (aerospace mostly) in Southern California dried up a bit. He always joked that it was 'welfare for rich white people.' The secondary point of the WaPo story is that the intelligence-industrial complex has largely set up shop in the DC area, and it's sucking away all of our precious bodily fluids to make everybody in it RICH RICH RICH, or at least more comfortable than many in the Great Recession.
Taking Over Everything
Not sure I was surprised by anything in here, but basically we spend stupid amounts of money on stuff which can't possibly be useful.
Maybe we can cut food stamps to help continue paying for it.
Maybe we can cut food stamps to help continue paying for it.
Doing Their Jobs For Them
Not sure why we want to let the slash and burn crowd off the hook for their slashing and burning.
GREGORY: Senator, I’m sorry, I’m not hearing an answer here on specifics. What painful choices to really deal with the deficit — is Social Security on the table? — what will Republicans do that will give them, like ‘94, there was the Contract with America, what are voters going to say, hey, this is what Republicans will say yes to.
CORNYN: Well, the president has a debt commission that reports December the first, and I think we’d all like to see what they come back with.
GREGORY: But wait a minute, conservatives need a Democratic president’s debt commission to figure out what it is they need to cut?
Not Good
Thad Allen, the U.S. official in charge of the response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, ordered BP Plc to prepare for reopening the company’s Macondo well after a “seep” was detected.
They've been back and forth all weekend, with BP wanting to keep the well shut and the Government wanting it opened. From the live feed, it looks still to be closed.
Good morning.
They've been back and forth all weekend, with BP wanting to keep the well shut and the Government wanting it opened. From the live feed, it looks still to be closed.
Good morning.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Those Wacky Pakistanis
Crazy what goes on in that country!!
But behind the opulence lurks a troubling fact. Very few of these households pay income tax. That is mostly because the politicians who make the rules are also the country’s richest citizens, and are skilled at finding ways to exempt themselves.
That would be a problem in any country. But in Pakistan, the lack of a workable tax system feeds something more menacing: a festering inequality in Pakistani society, where the wealth of its most powerful members is never redistributed or put to use for public good.
Austerity For Some
I don't have any opinion about whether dealership closures were done properly, but it's still important to remember the differing treatment of the auto industry versus the banksters.
Learning To Love Free Money
The point is that there's little to be feared from either firing up the helicopters or, more realistically, simply obtaining more money to spend by moving decimal points on Treasury bank accounts instead of borrowing it, relative to the predicament we are currently in.
Refudiate
Tea Party racists, Michael Steele, Sarah Palin, perhaps George W. Bush himself, were all planted by liberals to make conservatives look bad. Clever liberals.
How High
While I do think "The Left" has made significant progress in dealing with the basic puke funnel that the right has, it's still the case that key actors still think dancing whatever dance conservatives want them to is a big part of their jobs.
Everybody Else Sucks
I don't think the double standard thing is especially new, nor limited to our own country, but what is new is that there are couple of examples so obvious and glaring that it's difficult to comprehend how reporters and editors run with them without an immense sense of shame. Or, really, how they run with them at all.
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has Joe the Biden.
Meet the Press has Cornyn, Menendez, Van Hollen, and Pete Sessions.
Face the Nation has Bill Richardson, JD Hayworth, and apparently a debate between someone from the NAACP and someone from the "Tea Party." I bet they'll debate who the real racists are! Oh joy.
Document the atrocities!
Meet the Press has Cornyn, Menendez, Van Hollen, and Pete Sessions.
Face the Nation has Bill Richardson, JD Hayworth, and apparently a debate between someone from the NAACP and someone from the "Tea Party." I bet they'll debate who the real racists are! Oh joy.
Document the atrocities!
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Gravel Roads
Moving forward into the 21st century.
SPIRITWOOD, N.D.—A hulking yellow machine inched along Old Highway 10 here recently in a summer scene that seemed as normal as the nearby corn swaying in the breeze. But instead of laying a blanket of steaming blacktop, the machine was grinding the asphalt road into bits.
"When [counties] had lots of money, they paved a lot of the roads and tried to make life easier for the people who lived out here," said Stutsman County Highway Superintendant Mike Zimmerman, sifting the dusty black rubble through his fingers. "Now, it's catching up to them."
There Was Something Fishy In The White House Travel Office
And Clinton did the perfectly normal thing of putting his own people in, but that upset the press - then the Republicans - who liked the people in the travel office who did them lots of favors and began the process of making perfectly standard behavior illegitimate when done by democrats.
Morning
Busy day for me. Not sure I'll be around much. There are plenty of fine blogs linked to the left that can keep you occupied.
Memories
Maybe I'm all fuzzy these days, but I seem to remember a day when the National Rifle Association talked, a lot, about gun safety, education and commonsense approaches to gun ownership in the US. Is this really the same organization?
This is in the context of the NRA working to block an attempt by the cops to identify a serial killer.....
What's truly amazing, though, is how the Washington NRA leadership is always there for the worst among us. Do you want to continue to sell guns to criminals, terrorists, and those not of sound mind through the gun show loophole -- unlike 69% of NRA members and 85% of non-NRA gun owners who support a simple background check at gun shows to prevent this insanity? No worries, NRA Executive VP Wayne LaPierre has got your back! Do you think it's a swell idea to sell guns & explosives to those being actively investigated by the FBI, TSA or DHS? Excellent! Top NRA lobbyist Chris Cox is there to ensure you can continue to hawk your wares to those who can't even get on airplanes because they are being investigated for being members of violent, terrorist organizations -- something 82% of the NRA's own membership and 86% of non-NRA gun owners agree is just plain nuts.
This is in the context of the NRA working to block an attempt by the cops to identify a serial killer.....
Friday, July 16, 2010
Panel
Almost avoided doing any work, but this year at Netroots Nation I'll be on the SUPERTRAIN panel discussing SUPERTRAINS and my plan to forcibly relocate you all to vertical FEMA camps in Manhattan.
Reminders
Summers didn't help.
I know I'm crazy, but I think sustained 9.5% unemployment is "catastrophic failure."
Romer had run simulations of the effects of stimulus packages of varying sizes: six hundred billion dollars, eight hundred billion dollars, and $1.2 trillion. The best estimate for the output gap was some two trillion dollars over 2009 and 2010. Because of the multiplier effect, filling that gap didn’t require two trillion dollars of government spending, but Romer’s analysis, deeply informed by her work on the Depression, suggested that the package should probably be more than $1.2 trillion. The memo to Obama, however, detailed only two packages: a five-hundred-and-fifty-billion-dollar stimulus and an eight-hundred-and-ninety-billion-dollar stimulus. Summers did not include Romer’s $1.2-trillion projection. The memo argued that the stimulus should not be used to fill the entire output gap; rather, it was “an insurance package against catastrophic failure.” At the meeting, according to one participant, “there was no serious discussion to going above a trillion dollars.”
I know I'm crazy, but I think sustained 9.5% unemployment is "catastrophic failure."
And Jobs
Ultimately it just doesn't seem like the scale of the problem is understood. This "new normal" doesn't actually have to be that. There are things that can be done about it.
The Forgotten Foreclosure Crisis
I'm going to kick this dead horse for awhile because it's really pissing me off. They had 75 billion bucks to do something about foreclosure crisis. They didn't need President Snowe to sign off on anything. The program they implemented didn't work. Does anybody care?
Do You Really Think We Can Afford Long Term Mass Unemployment?
That would have been the correct question.
The stimulus 'debate' was so absurd, with dirty fucking hippies saying what needed to happen and Very Serious People objecting not because of any actual reason, but on basic aesthetic grounds. "OOoh, that just sounds so big, can't we make it smaller?"
Geniuses.
The stimulus 'debate' was so absurd, with dirty fucking hippies saying what needed to happen and Very Serious People objecting not because of any actual reason, but on basic aesthetic grounds. "OOoh, that just sounds so big, can't we make it smaller?"
Geniuses.
Don't Tell Anyone
But a couple days ago a guest on a local NPR show uttered the demon-inspired word "bullshit."
One day I really hope we stop worrying about the purity of our virgin ears.
One day I really hope we stop worrying about the purity of our virgin ears.
Morning
Feeling mildly optimistic that they are beginning to get a handle on the gusher. Just beginning, mind.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Tear It Down
Hopefully Landrieu genuinely considers tearing down I-10 in New Orleans.
I suppose I'll do this at some point to fill some bloggy space (no time now), but if you're ever a bored nerd like I am look at an overhead shot of a random US city and see where the freeways are. Then imagine the city without the freeways. Then if you dig a bit, try to find a similar shot from 70 years ago.
It's easy to see now how running a massive highway through midtown Manhattan or leveling most of the French Quarter in New Orleans are utterly crazy ideas, but many of the projects that were built were also...utterly crazy ideas which actually happened.
I suppose I'll do this at some point to fill some bloggy space (no time now), but if you're ever a bored nerd like I am look at an overhead shot of a random US city and see where the freeways are. Then imagine the city without the freeways. Then if you dig a bit, try to find a similar shot from 70 years ago.
It's easy to see now how running a massive highway through midtown Manhattan or leveling most of the French Quarter in New Orleans are utterly crazy ideas, but many of the projects that were built were also...utterly crazy ideas which actually happened.
Shocker From Uncle Alan
Occasionally they surprise.
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose endorsement of George W. Bush’s 2001 tax cuts helped persuade Congress to pass them, said lawmakers should allow the cuts to expire at the end of the year.
“They should follow the law and let them lapse,” Greenspan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Conversations with Judy Woodruff,” citing a need for the tax revenue to reduce the federal budget deficit.
Reality Bites
I'm sort of over caring about people sneering at stoopid liberal bloggers, but I think there's a giant issue that political reporters, though not other reporters, have completely ignored, and that's the complete failure of the HAMP program. Here was a program which was supposed to help people. It in theory might have helped some, but for many more it either didn't help or prolonged the agony. They had an interaction with a "government program" which was poorly designed, complicated, and ultimately unhelpful.
Remember How We Solved That Foreclosure Crisis?
When the central bankers saved the world?
I've been astonished at the degree to which "crisis" became "normal" even as the crisis got worse.
The number of U.S. homes taken back by banks through foreclosure hit a record high in the second quarter, even as lenders delayed more homes from entering the process through short sales and loan modification efforts, according to data to be released Thursday.
I've been astonished at the degree to which "crisis" became "normal" even as the crisis got worse.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Still high, but better.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 429,000 last week, the lowest since late August 2008, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 450,000 from the previously reported 454,000, which was revised up to 458,000 in Thursday's report.
The four-week moving average of new jobless claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 11,750 to 455,250.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Plans
There are many possibilities...in isolation or in combination... are they doing any of them?
I get that the realities of Congress blah blah blah means that maybe not everything passes, but would it be so hard to...
Spend a couple of weeks making the case for a crucial piece of legislation.
Publicize major votes on that issue.
Have votes.
If votes fail, continue to make noise about the vote.
I get that the realities of Congress blah blah blah means that maybe not everything passes, but would it be so hard to...
Spend a couple of weeks making the case for a crucial piece of legislation.
Publicize major votes on that issue.
Have votes.
If votes fail, continue to make noise about the vote.
Design The Helicopter
I'm glad support for the helicopter drop is increasing, but half joking aside, how would you do a helicopter drop of cash?
Taking The Under And The Over
The Fed is now a bit more gloomy, but secure in their jobs they aren't really thinking of doing much about it.
...but, hey, there's a possibility it could potentially boost inflation over time. Maybe. So, mass unemployment for all!
...but, hey, there's a possibility it could potentially boost inflation over time. Maybe. So, mass unemployment for all!
Consequences
Consequences of both the unemployment and foreclosure crises are unappreciated. Unoccupied housing stock degrades pretty fast, especially when there are trashouts and neighborhoods with significant numbers of empty homes. And many skills also deteriorate pretty fast, or are perceived to do so, for unemployed people.
The stimulus was too small and HAMP was a complete failure. The consequences will be with us for some time.
The stimulus was too small and HAMP was a complete failure. The consequences will be with us for some time.
Another Hobo
Reader S sends in a tale of another lucky ducky.
Now would be an excellent time to raise the Social Security eligibility age.
When Laurie-Ellen Shumaker, 59, was laid off from her job as a lawyer for a shopping center in January of 2009, she assumed she would be hired again in no time. In addition to her impressive resume, which includes a degree from a top-tier law school and 23 years of legal experience, she has always been actively recruited for positions.
But in the past year-and-a-half, Shumaker says she has applied to over a thousand jobs -- everything from secretary to file clerk to daycare worker -- and she has yet to be called for an interview.
Now would be an excellent time to raise the Social Security eligibility age.
Some Good News
Occasionally there is some.
OMAHA, Neb. – A federal judge on Wednesday blocked a new Nebraska law requiring mental health screenings for women seeking abortions until a lawsuit filed against it is decided.
U.S. District Judge Laurie Smith Camp granted Planned Parenthood of the Heartland's request for a preliminary injunction against the law, which was supposed to take effect Thursday.
Continue To Press
Summers makes the case for doing more.
I hope he does continue to press, all day every, sending out an army of allies to the teevee to do it too.
That is why President Obama will continue to press Congress to extend unemployment benefits and pass commonsense measures to strengthen our economic recovery – like extending unemployment insurance and COBRA, supporting our clean energy economy, providing aid to state and local governments, and saving the jobs of thousands of teachers.
I hope he does continue to press, all day every, sending out an army of allies to the teevee to do it too.
Hobo
If the unemployed don't get their emergency supplemental some of them might have to start doing stupid things.
For nearly two years, Coleman says she has filed an average of 30 job applications a day, but remains jobless.
"People keep telling me there are jobs out there, but I haven't been able to find them."
Coleman, 58, a former manager at a telecommunications firm, said the only jobs she found were over the Ohio state line in Kentucky, but she cannot reach them because her car has been repossessed and there is no bus service to those areas.
After her $300 a week benefits ran out, Freestore Foodbank brokered emergency 90-day support in June for rent. Once that runs out, her future is uncertain.
An Excellent Choice For Commerce Secretary
For the most part, media spin reflects these views. Spending not on Glorious Wars or oil company subsidies is always bad, tax cuts are always good. Republicans will have no trouble getting away with saying these things.
Also
Once some random person submitted a video in an open Move On contest which made Hitler comparisons, so the left and the right are just alike.
The media treatment is identical, too.
The media treatment is identical, too.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Jobs
I hope and assume that eventually unemployment benefit extension will pass, but while that will help - both individuals and the economy generally - it won't change the fact that there currently aren't any jobs.
Still Ongoing
As with unemployment, the foreclosure crisis, which was once seen as a crisis, is now just part of the new normal.
I'm boring myself with all the whining about the economy, but it's thoroughly disturbing.
I'm boring myself with all the whining about the economy, but it's thoroughly disturbing.
Maybe Somebody Should Do Something
At least the term "green shoots" is now out of fashion.
I just don't get the disconnect. I would have never thought there would be such inaction in response to 9.5%+ unemployment.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that job openings fell to 3.2 million in May from 3.3 million in the previous month. April's upwardly revised figure was the highest in 18 months.
The department's report, known as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, illustrates how competitive the job market is. There were about 4.7 unemployed people, on average, for each job opening in May. That's down from the peak of 6.3 last November, but is much higher than the 1.8 unemployed per opening when the recession began in December 2007.
I just don't get the disconnect. I would have never thought there would be such inaction in response to 9.5%+ unemployment.
Enablers
Newt thinks about running for president every time he writes a book, and his cheerleaders at Kaplan Test Prep Daily and elsewhere dutifully trumpet the exciting news that is thrilling most of the country who have no fucking idea who this guy is.
Welfare Queens
I got this sense when I had a couple of conversations in DC with people about possible ways to ameliorate the mortgage crisis. Basically many see defaulters as unworthy deadbeats because maybe some of them are "strategic defaulters" even though there isn't anything wrong with being one. There was tremendous fear that if you provide any mortgage relief maybe some "unworthy" people will be the recipients of it and that would be the worst thing in the world.
The banksters, however, they're golden.
The banksters, however, they're golden.
Against Contraception
I watched for years as mostly well-meaning anti-abortion (some anti-choice, some not) Democrats tried to make nice with conservative anti-choicers to find common ground to "reduce abortion" by doing things like trying to make contraception more affordable. As I could have told them it was a colossal waste of time, as the conservative anti-choice movement is also anti-other people having sex without punishment.
War!
I am so old I remember when the military-industrial complex tried to gin up reasons to exist after the Soviet collapse. This War on Terrah is a pretty good one, with three hundred or so stateless super-villians hidden away in the landlocked rural areas of two impoverished countries.
Just in case, though, they have backup. CYBER-War. (via avedon)
Just in case, though, they have backup. CYBER-War. (via avedon)
Monday, July 12, 2010
Unhappy Hour Thread
It seems many at the Fed thinks things are as they should be.
I'm skeptical that realistic Fed options can do much, but I'm also rather skeptical about those who don't think anything needs to be done.
I'm skeptical that realistic Fed options can do much, but I'm also rather skeptical about those who don't think anything needs to be done.
The Modern Economy
That sounded like a lot of money for companies I had never heard of.
And what do they do?
Um, what do they do?
Hewitt Associates will merge with a subsidiary of Aon, the company announced Monday, and shareholders will receive some $4.9 billion for their trouble.
And what do they do?
Hewitt currently operates in over 30 countries, employing more than 23,000 associates representing roughly 3,000 clients. Aon totes itself on its website as the “leading global provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human capital consulting” with 36,000 associates in offices across 120 countries.
Um, what do they do?
Deficit Hawks Don't Care About The Deficit
Some just want to cut spending that might benefit poor brown people, most just want to cut taxes paid by rich people. They don't actually care about the deficit. Nobody does except maybe CBO actuaries.
Prediction: the catfood commission's major tax increase will be... increasing the bottom tax bracket from 10 to 15%.
Prediction: the catfood commission's major tax increase will be... increasing the bottom tax bracket from 10 to 15%.
Electorally Fearful
The problem is that the catfood commission comes out after the November election, meaning that a bunch of crappy Democrats who just lost their seats might feel free to "vote their consciences" and starve your granny.
The main hope is that any tax increases will be a poison pill.
The main hope is that any tax increases will be a poison pill.
Maybe Because It Doesn't Really Mean Anything?
One of the truly stupid things that the organized and funded left spent years doing was to rebrand themselves as "progressive."
Blunt
You know, given that we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, whatever I felt about those adventures at the time or what I feel about them now, I do wish we had "done it right," gone in and paved the streets with gold, or at least built a few power plants and sewage treatment plants. Hell, maybe a supertrain or two. But I think the lesson we need to learn is that hostile military occupation and nation building are just not compatible. You go to war with the military-industrial complex you have, not the one you want, and the one we have didn't especially care if that power plant was built right.
Rich New Yorkers Live In Condos!
It's long been a mystery to me why there are developers out there who believe that "urban living" means "build a big condo tower in the middle of the suburbs." As Irvine Renter says, it gives you the inconveniences of cities and suburbs without the benefits.
While actually in the city, these condos are a mystery to me. They're set too far back and somewhat isolated, giving people the worst of both worlds.
While actually in the city, these condos are a mystery to me. They're set too far back and somewhat isolated, giving people the worst of both worlds.
Credibility
I think the punchline to Krugman's column is the most important. The Fed only perceives its "credibility" as being about inflation. Unemployment is just an afterthought at best. Of course for most of the latter is much more important than the former.
Helplessly Hoping
I read the Bobblespeak Translations yesterday, some transcript excerpts, listened to commentary last night at Virtually Speaking and experienced a twitter barrage.
And I still don't hear anybody who says that Krugman and the other Keynesians are wrong, that another stimulus directed to job creation would not decrease unemployment without any significant risk of inflation or any real danger to the bond markets.
They all say stuff like "You have to be realistic" "Change is very, very hard." " So therefore, what? Out with the old, in with Boehner, Issa, Romney? Then what?"
Or Gibbs yesterday:
And, therefore, we should........
[crickets]
And I still don't hear anybody who says that Krugman and the other Keynesians are wrong, that another stimulus directed to job creation would not decrease unemployment without any significant risk of inflation or any real danger to the bond markets.
They all say stuff like "You have to be realistic" "Change is very, very hard." " So therefore, what? Out with the old, in with Boehner, Issa, Romney? Then what?"
Or Gibbs yesterday:
The, the point the president was making and the point that the president will make this fall is, do you want to go backward to an economy that led us into this mess, that saw the greatest financial calamity since the Great Depression, that turned record surpluses into record deficits? Or do you want to continue on the track that the president has put us on, that has started to create private sector jobs.
And, therefore, we should........
[crickets]
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Important Moments In Philadelphia History
Had wondered about this building in my neighborhood, specifically in precisely what sense it was the "Home of 7up." First time I tried to get the internet to explain it to me it failed, but fortunately the internet has become smarter since then. Apparently the stuff was first made in St. Louis, was marketed as a hangover cure, and contained lithium citrate to stabilize your mood. Someone in Philly licensed the formula and set up the first bottling company.
Now you know.
Confused About The Politics
So let's say Obama's people have correctly deduced that there's no chance in hell of getting anything through Congress. They have two basic options. First, they could get on the teevee every day and say, "This is my plan to help. Republicans in Congress won't pass it." They could hold rallies in Maine. Allies could run ads. At least people would know who is for and who is against...and just what it was that people are for or against.
Option two is back off proposals you've previously made and have Axelrod get on the teevee and say, "there is some argument for additional spending in the short-run to continue to generate economic activity.”
Option two is back off proposals you've previously made and have Axelrod get on the teevee and say, "there is some argument for additional spending in the short-run to continue to generate economic activity.”
Giving Up
Oh well. Good luck everyone!
Hopefully the unemployment benefits are extended but then... I guess it's over.
In his February budget proposal, the president requested $266 billion for additional stimulus for the economy. And just a month ago, the President called for $50 billion in emergency aid to states alongside the extension of unemployment benefits. This morning Axelrod called again for extension of unemployment benefits, but aid to states was not on his list.
“It’s true that there is not a great desire” on Capitol Hill to spend more money, Axelrod said, “even though there is some argument for additional spending in the short-run to continue to generate economic activity.”
“There’s not a great appetite for it, but I do think we can get additional tax relief for small businesses – that’s what we want to do – additional lending for small businesses,” the President’s senior advisor said.
Hopefully the unemployment benefits are extended but then... I guess it's over.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation has Holder.
Meet the Pres has Gibbs, DNC Chairman Harold Ford, and Ed Gillespie.
This Week has Bilbray, Gutierrez, and Axelrod.
Document the atrocities!
Meet the Pres has Gibbs, DNC Chairman Harold Ford, and Ed Gillespie.
This Week has Bilbray, Gutierrez, and Axelrod.
Document the atrocities!
Morning
The oil is flowing freely, but the news is not. I'm betting the reason no reporter has been arrested yet is because the law imposing criminal charges on anyone filming anything BP doesn't want revealed is for intimidation purposes only. Otherwise, surely, there's one reporter out there willing to risk arrest to get the story.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
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