Rock on.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Wayback Machine
November 13, 2003.
(11-13) 04:00 PST Washington — 2003-11-13 04:00:00 PST Washington -- The Bush administration plans to support the creation of a reconstituted governing body in Iraq that will assume a large degree of sovereignty by next summer -- a move that could lead to a relinquishing of control by the U.S.-led occupation before the 2004 presidential election.
The decision was reached after two days of hastily organized talks at the White House with Paul Bremer, the U.S. governor in Iraq, in an attempt to accelerate the political transition -- one of two prerequisites, along with security, for the eventual American withdrawal from Iraq.
The Company They Keep
Alan Simpson really is the worst person in the world.
At least until Jeffrey Goldberg pops up again.
At least until Jeffrey Goldberg pops up again.
"Inappropriate Signal To Investors"
Some in the Fed seem to think that the Great Casino is the real economy.
By The Way I Plan To Vote
There's this weird chatter about how crazy it would be for mildly disgruntled democrats to stay home in November and not vote. I agree! Totally crazy! I'll vote for Sestak and Bob Brady, the former probably needs my vote and the latter doesn't. But GOTV concerns aren't about people like me, they're about numerous other people who don't always make a point of voting.
Why It's So Maddening
There's some truth to this counterintuitive take on Krgthulu, and it's the reason some of us our pulling our hair out. The solution to the economic problems we face are, if not perfectly simply in practice, pretty straightforward. That we've had people arguing otherwise, and even people notionally on the right side worrying about invisible bond vigilantes and arguing for a smaller stimulus than necessary just because, is maddening. So, yes, optimistic that problems are solvable. Pessimistic that they will be solved.
One True Christian
If I went around calling peoples' religions "evil" I'd probably get into a bit of trouble. Not that I'm important, of course, but the usual suspects would say I was bigoted against the faithful and whatnot.
Credit Where Credit Is Due File
Orrin Hatch.
Labor Day is almost here so I imagine the mosque "controversy" will begin to recede. What will next August's stupid fake controversy that gets 24/7 coverage be?
Labor Day is almost here so I imagine the mosque "controversy" will begin to recede. What will next August's stupid fake controversy that gets 24/7 coverage be?
I Have No Idea What We're Doing There
I at least understood that we stayed in Iraq so Very Serious People could feel better about themselves. Not an especially good reason, of course, but a reason at least.
Roadside bombings and attacks by militants in Afghanistan killed five U.S. soldiers Tuesday, raising the American death toll since this weekend to 19.
The number of American soldiers killed in August is now 55, a drop from the 66 who died in July, the deadliest month of combat for U.S. troops since fighting began in 2001.
Morning and Stuff
Not an economist, but I think Ruth has it about right. The financial system is like a house of cards that is teetering on the brink of collapse. Sooner or later all the assets held by the banks will have to be valued at market rates instead of the inflated values currently assigned to them. I suppose our betters are hoping that either the housing market will re-inflate or that they can spread the losses out over several years for a soft landing. Either way, it's not very comfortable knowing that we're so close to having the whole house collapse.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Externalities
I thought this was a decent if imperfect piece at GreenTechMedia today. If nothing else it highlights once again the point that energy from coal has significant negative externalities that are not reflected in its price, full stop. It's a very simple point, but apparently not simple enough for the brain trust that scribbles editorials in the WSJ. Whether they don't understand simple economic concepts or whether they dissemble to advance an agenda, or both, is up for debate I suppose.
WSJ editorial is full of crap. Dog bites man. Open thread.
WSJ editorial is full of crap. Dog bites man. Open thread.
Urban Hellhole Blogging
The more interesting than parking (impossible I know) bit of the earlier article about the Italian (aka 9th St.) Market is whether retail gentrification will alter the character of the place which, as I understand it, has from the beginning been a fairly low end market area catering to poor immigrants. There are some higher end specialty shops mixed in a bit, and the various butchers have good if not top quality meats, but overall it's more of a lower priced retail corridor. Locally, the demographics are a mix of older Italian- and African-American populations, along with yuppies, hipsters, and newer Mexican and Vietnamese immigrant populations.
Mandatory Parking
Oy.
Hopefully the information in the second paragraph is actually operative. It would be absurd to require any sort of parking on that parcel.* It would either make it prohibitively expensive to build (underground) or completely break up the flow (surface). None of the existing structures along the corridor have any parking. There are municipal lots and plenty of on street parking nearby. More importantly, people actually, you know, walk there.
*building is gone, and is now empty lot.
On Midwood Management, the New York developer who owns the Paesano's property on Christian Street, and who is purported to be interested in taking over more of the Market: "Midwood wants to open a mixed-use retail and condo space there at the [long-abandoned] Ice House space [at Ninth and Washington], yeah. But the city challenged them to build a parking lot underground as part of the deal, a project that'll cost them plenty. I don't think they're concerned with taking the Market over. They got their hands full."
(Midwood couldn't be reached for comment; DiCicco says Midwood is downsizing its vision due to the dip in the real estate market, and now plans an all-retail space, with no parking, that allows for housing atop if the housing market rebounds.)
Hopefully the information in the second paragraph is actually operative. It would be absurd to require any sort of parking on that parcel.* It would either make it prohibitively expensive to build (underground) or completely break up the flow (surface). None of the existing structures along the corridor have any parking. There are municipal lots and plenty of on street parking nearby. More importantly, people actually, you know, walk there.
*building is gone, and is now empty lot.
I Really Think So
I was also struck by the coverage of Japan this morning. For years everyone in econ-world mocked Japan and their poor policy responses to their economic problems, with a 'there's no way we would do that' attitude. Well now we're doing that, and much of econ-world thinks it's great.
Any Idea What They're Doing There
I really have no idea.
KABUL, Afghanistan - NATO says 7 US soldiers killed in 2 roadside bomb attacks in southern Afghanistan.
The Optimistic View
Not passing this along because I agree or disagree, I'm just fascinated by what's presented as the optimistic outcome.
So the good scenario - the worst is over - unemployment will drop all the way down to 9% by the end of 2011!!
In January 2009, the administration projected that unemployment would drop below 7% by the end of 2011, without any stimulus.
If Berner's right, the worst is over. He expects consumption to grow 2 to 2.5 percent annually, propelling a steady -- if unspectacular -- recovery. Indeed, consumption spending grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Berner forecasts unemployment to decline slowly to about 9 percent by year-end 2011.
The trouble with this analysis, as Berner admits, is that it presumes that most of the adjustment has already occurred. But what if worried Americans are only midway? In the past decade, they counted rising stock and home wealth as "saving," which rationalized high borrowing and spending. Now, the process may work in reverse. Since late 2007, lower home and stock values have shaved about $10 trillion from household wealth. If Americans tried to replace most of this through more annual saving, consumer spending would remain weak for years.
So the good scenario - the worst is over - unemployment will drop all the way down to 9% by the end of 2011!!
In January 2009, the administration projected that unemployment would drop below 7% by the end of 2011, without any stimulus.
Constrained
There is a lot the administration could have accomplished that the progressive base would have praised. Sometimes this would have entailed doing something, like DADT, that was expected and promised. Other times, this would have entailed taking stronger action in response to events, as with health care reform and job creation. So there is handwringing, excuses offered, and worse, on whose fault it is that liberals have not been overjoyed with the administration.
So what can Obama really do?
So what can Obama really do?
Sunday, August 29, 2010
On The More Optimistic Side
Perhaps the placing of this op-ed by Laura Tyson, "a member of President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board," signals a shift...
The Safe Way To Travel
I'm sure there are good reasons some parents might hesitate to bring their kids on mass transit, but concern for safety isn't one of them.
Or Maybe Because Of
Just thinking outside the box here.
Despite the presence of almost 150,000 foreign troops, violence across Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in late 2001.
Oh Jeebus
Please find a new plan already.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration has not decided whether it should resurrect a popular tax credit for first-time homebuyers, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said on Sunday.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Landrieu, Landrieu, and Brad Pitt.
Face the Nation has Joe Miller (R-AK), Kendrick Meek, President Barbour and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
This Week has Arne Duncan, the head of the AFT, and Jamie Oliver.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has Joe Miller (R-AK), Kendrick Meek, President Barbour and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
This Week has Arne Duncan, the head of the AFT, and Jamie Oliver.
Document the atrocities!
Contempt
In his opening column, the new ombud at the NYTimes displays the newsroom's contempt for its readers--people are apparently either partisans or nitpickers--and, by extension, for the "scold, scourge" in "the principal's office" who ostensibly represents them.
Deep Questions of Our Time
In the long run, is the African American community likely to view Glenn Beck with the same reverence with which they regard Martin Luther King, Jr?
Only time will tell.
Only time will tell.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Boring Blogging Day
Weather is nice and I'm not really up for Glenn Beck day.
I'm sure you can go read some of the many fine blogs which can be found on the left of your screen.
I'm sure you can go read some of the many fine blogs which can be found on the left of your screen.
Friday, August 27, 2010
HAMP'd
I've long said that if the economy fails to turn around, a big reason will be the administration's failure to adequately deal with the housing and foreclosure crisis.
Time to hope that someone decides he needs some new advisers. If only they'd listened to me and backed cramdown....*
*They did in theory but made no effort
Time to hope that someone decides he needs some new advisers. If only they'd listened to me and backed cramdown....*
*They did in theory but made no effort
Inflation Was Actually Kinda Awesome For A Lot Of People
I've never seen a study, but while the 70s had some economic problems, for large numbers of homeowners inflation eroded the value of their mortgages tremendously. If wages keep up - and that's an if of course - higher than expected inflation is pretty awesome for people with nominally denominated deb and bad for those who lent the money, which is why banksters and their pals at the Fed really really hate inflation.
The Danger Of Appointing GOP Daddies
I can understand why Obama reappointed Bernanke given the circumstances. I also hope people start acknowledging that it was a mistake.
Stay Classy
The greatest senator a few weeks ago.
What a joke.
12-18 months recovery...
Some things never change: Birds fly, waves pound the sand and cranky old men complain that everything was better in their own day.
Today's entrant is Jim Bunning who was, of course, a starting pitcher for 17 big-league seasons before becoming a Republican Senator from Kentucky. A reporter from Politico asked Bunning for his thoughts about Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg missing his start on Tuesday with shoulder soreness. Bunning grabbed his arm with a fake exclamation of pain and then decided to question Strasburg's manhood.
"Five-hundred twenty starts, I never refused the ball," Bunning said. "What a joke!"
What a joke.
Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo announced this morning that pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg will probably require "Tommy John" elbow ligament replacement surgery.
12-18 months recovery...
Though It Ultimately Was A Mistake
Obsessing too much about possible Republican attacks about "wasteful" spending has crippled some spending initiatives in the stimulus.
And the economy is where it is now.
And the economy is where it is now.
Oh Well
So much for that.
U.S. economic growth slowed more sharply than initially thought in the second quarter, held back by the largest increase in imports in 26 years, a government report showed on Friday.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 1.6 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said, instead of the 2.4 percent pace it had estimated last month.
We're The Greatest Nation In The History Of The Universe
But some things are just too expensive.
SAN DIEGO — Fire departments around the nation are cutting jobs, closing firehouses and increasingly resorting to “rolling brownouts” in which they shut different fire companies on different days as the economic downturn forces many cities and towns to make deep cuts that are slowing their responses to fires and other emergencies.
Philadelphia began rolling brownouts this month, joining cities from Baltimore to Sacramento that now shut some units every day. San Jose, Calif., laid off 49 firefighters last month. And Lawrence, Mass., north of Boston, has laid off firefighters and shut down half of its six firehouses, forcing the city to rely on help from neighboring departments each time a fire goes to a second alarm
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Shorter NYT
Hatred of deficit spending when done by Democrats has distracted Republicans who normally spend lots of time hating gay people.
For Immediate Release
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, Congressman Jerrold Nadler (D-NY) called on President Obama to fire former Senator Alan Simpson from his position as Co-Chairman of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform in light of Simpson’s recent remarks regarding Social Security. Nadler issued the following statement:
“We cannot trust the integrity of any product or recommendations of the Commission as long as former Senator Simpson is the Chairman. His insulting and outrageous comments reveal his own mistaken belief that Social Security is a) in crisis, b) about to collapse, and c) contributes to the deficit. None of this is true. In fact, the Social Security Trust Fund has a $2.5 trillion dollar surplus, and it will be able to pay 100 percent of benefits through 2037, according to the Social Security Board of Trustees. What’s more, Social Security has not contributed at all to the federal deficit. It is well known that Simpson has tried time and again over the years to raise the retirement age and cut Social Security benefits, and he makes no attempt to disguise his goals and attitude toward Social Security in his most recent comments.
“Furthermore, Simpson demonstrated a total disrespect for women and an unjustifiably contemptuous attitude toward Ashley Carson, Executive Director of the Older Women’s League. His comments were offensive, ignorant, and misleading, and he should be fired immediately.”
Though, admittedly, Simpson isn't the problem. The whole crew is.
Glenn Beck Has A Fever Dream
One would have thought that trying to appropriate the civil rights movement and the legacy of MLK, facts be damned, would be problematic. I guess not.
Hamp'd
Whatever you think the feds should have done (or not) to help homeowners, what happened is that they set up and endorsed a predatory lending program which has ended up completely screwing people. It's unconscionable.
Beck'd
The slightly interesting thing Beck is that he appears to be an insane megalomanic who is self-aware enough to be aware of that fact. It's what allows him to be a huckster clown on top of it.
Not Over
Treasury's predatory lending program did not solve the crisis.
The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process declined last quarter to 4.57 percent from 4.63 percent in the first quarter, partially because of lender efforts to ease payments for homeowners and the impact of temporary home purchase tax credits, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in its quarterly delinquency report.
Foreclosures could head higher in coming months, however, as the percentage of borrowers at least one payment behind resumed its rise after easing late last year, the MBA said.
Campaign And The Economy
Judging by all the emails I get from various campaigns and party organizations, the Dem plan for the campaign is to run against social security privatization and then come December vote to cut benefits and raise the retirement age.
As for what they should actually be doing, I'm rather skeptical that there's much that monetary policy can do though that doesn't mean I think it can do nothing. As a matter of politics one would think, as dday says, they should unite around an awesome jobs bill and run with it whether or not President Snowe blesses it.
Though, probably, they think if we give the economy another F.U. everything will be ok. They might be right. But 6 months is a long time...
As for what they should actually be doing, I'm rather skeptical that there's much that monetary policy can do though that doesn't mean I think it can do nothing. As a matter of politics one would think, as dday says, they should unite around an awesome jobs bill and run with it whether or not President Snowe blesses it.
Though, probably, they think if we give the economy another F.U. everything will be ok. They might be right. But 6 months is a long time...
Silly Krugman
Our capitalist overlords are simply going Galt to protest the coming nationalization of all of the means of production.
Or something.
Or something.
310 Million Tits
No wonder there is so much suckage in the world. Thanks Mr. Simpson for clearing that up for us.
Good Morning.
Good Morning.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Next Steps
Nothing new here yet....
VINEYARD HAVEN, Mass., Aug 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama held a conference call with top economic advisers on Wednesday to discuss newly released grim data that has raised fears the economy is at risk of a new downturn.
...
"The economic team provided an update on the next steps to keep the economy growing, including assistance to small businesses and the extension of tax cuts to the middle class," it said.
Along Those Lines
Plenty of Dems feel completely comfortable running against Obama and other Dems from the right, as is always the case, and I'm sure the DCCC will help many of them do it. But my question is whether any of them will run against the administration from the left, even on something as basic as 'the economy.'
I Feel Your Pain
Curious if anyone has noticed many Democratic politicians running on the economy? As in, it sucks and we need to do something about it.
Deep Thought
I'm so old I can remember when the running of primary challenges against incumbent senators bordered on treason.
High Broderism
It is ultimately about a desire for a not very competent technocracy run by the people you find to be pleasant when you dine at their table on quail. Paying too much attention to politics over the years as certainly made me cynical about a lot of things, but I don't think I've ever lost my respect for the idea that democracy requires the consent of the governed, even if the masses are often seriously ill-informed.
Also, The Tooth Fairy
I suppose we'll never know, but it'd be nice to know who in the administration decided they needed to cower to the nonexistent demands of "the market" and start making noises about the need for deficit reduction. And it'd be nice to know why that person still has a job.
So Surprising
So Surprising
So very surprising.
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods excluding transportation equipment posted their largest decline in 1-1/2 years in July while overall booking rose far less than expected, pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing.
...
The Commerce Department said durable goods orders excluding transportation dropped 3.8 percent—the biggest fall since January 2009—after rising 0.2 percent in June. Overall orders rose 0.3 percent following a revised 0.1 percent fall in June.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Animals
During the Katrina disaster, victims were perceived as criminal vermin by media, law enforcement, and the military. It was never quite clear how starving people would get very far swimming down the road with big screen TVs, but for a time that concern was seen as more important than people simply trying to eat or drink fresh water.
I CRASHED THE MARKET
Not really, of course, but people had made convincing case that that the housing numbers were going to be much much worse than expected. And they were!
Bringing In The Bucks
An energy innovation hub at the Navy Yard sounds cool. You know what else would be innovative? Extending the subway to the Navy Yard.
Perhaps You Should Start Listening To Some New People
Krugman reminds us of that crucial misstep, when the administration economic advisers were spooked by sasquatch invisible bond vigilantes and pivoted from stimulus to CUT SPENDING OR WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE.
Maybe some people should recognize that they suck and should retire. Maybe before the election?
Maybe some people should recognize that they suck and should retire. Maybe before the election?
Shovel Ready
Yes I'm sure that if the government tried hard enough, they could borrow a bunch of money at 2.5% and figure out some crazy ways to spend it.
Kick Their Ass And Take Their Gas
We should probably just put Pete Peterson and T. Boone Pickens in charge of everything and the rest of us can get back to our lives..
They Ran The World
One of the incredibly frustrating things during the Bush years was that people who were incompetent buffoons at best and transparently evil liars at worst were treated as Very Serious People.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped more steeply than expected in July to their lowest pace in 15 years, an industry group said Tuesday, implying further loss of momentum in the economic recovery.
The National Association of Realtors said sales dropped a record 27.2 percent from June to an annual rate of 3.83 million units, the lowest level since May 1995. June's sales pace was revised down to a 5.26 million-unit pace.
The expectation was 4.7 million.
Beware Of The Bond Vigilantes
10-year Treasury at 2.51. As I keep saying, at rates this low it's a crime not to borrow crazy amounts and spend it on SUPERTRAINS and fixing bridges and whatnot.
Only A Stock Market Crash Can Save Us Now
I'm guessing the same people who think the cure for a recession is a long spell of mass unemployment don't actually think that a falling stock market is a good idea. Labor should feel the hangover, but not the mighty capitalists with their Galtian splendor.
No I don't really want any bad news, but some kinds of bad news might spur some action. The kind of bad news that doesn't spur action? 15.6% unemployment among African-Americans.
No I don't really want any bad news, but some kinds of bad news might spur some action. The kind of bad news that doesn't spur action? 15.6% unemployment among African-Americans.
Decades Of Crazy Right Wingers Appointing Crazier Right Wingers
I don't know, but likely that's the untold story of the Fed.
But they're all very serious people!
But they're all very serious people!
Morning
Listening to Digby on Virtually Speaking. She has a wonderful radio voice. Also, what Digby said.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Cruelty
Like Felix, I actually do doubt (maybe I'm just naive) that people at Treasury wrote down a plan to deliberately screw over lots of desperate homeowners. However, that's their message, not mine. When confronted with a choice between "you guys fucked up" and "you guys are complete and total assholes" they went for option 2.
Any Given Sunday
It's incredible that years later reporters either pretend or misremember that Bush had awesome church attendance habits. But mostly this conversation is dumb, as there's a very simple reason why even the most devout church loving president would decide to skip church: it would be incredibly disruptive for any congregation to have to deal with all of that. So a president would have to find a church that fit him, and one which the Secret Service could approve of, and one which was ok with having snipers on the roof and in the corners every week. It's possible. Bill Clinton did it. But it's obviously problematic.
Their Baby
The reason I focus on HAMP is that it is entirely the administration's baby. They didn't need to get President Snowe or Lord High Everything Else Baucus on board, or reassure Vice President Lieberman that hippies would hate it sufficiently. They used TARP money, and it was the main portion of the TARP funds that were supposed to be used to help people instead of banksters. They could have done just about anything with the allocated funds, and instead they barely even spent any of them. I actually don't believe this was their initial intention, but it's the line that they themselves are running with in declaring victory so who am I to disagree.
No They Are Cruel People
Truly awful people.
Conning homeowners by announcing a government program designed to help them when in fact it was designed to help the banksters is, in my world, "cruel."
The conversation next turned to housing and HAMP. On HAMP, officials were surprisingly candid. The program has gotten a lot of bad press in terms of its Kafka-esque qualification process and its limited success in generating mortgage modifications under which families become able and willing to pay their debt. Officials pointed out that what may have been an agonizing process for individuals was a useful palliative for the system as a whole. Even if most HAMP applicants ultimately default, the program prevented an outbreak of foreclosures exactly when the system could have handled it least. There were murmurs among the bloggers of “extend and pretend”, but I don’t think that’s quite right. This was extend-and-don’t-even-bother-to-pretend. The program was successful in the sense that it kept the patient alive until it had begun to heal. And the patient of this metaphor was not a struggling homeowner, but the financial system, a.k.a. the banks. Policymakers openly judged HAMP to be a qualified success because it helped banks muddle through what might have been a fatal shock. I believe these policymakers conflate, in full sincerity, incumbent financial institutions with “the system”, “the economy”, and “ordinary Americans”. Treasury officials are not cruel people. I’m sure they would have preferred if the program had worked out better for homeowners as well. But they have larger concerns, and from their perspective, HAMP has helped to address those.
Conning homeowners by announcing a government program designed to help them when in fact it was designed to help the banksters is, in my world, "cruel."
Extend And Pretend
So the jerks at Treasury have basically decided that as long as the banksters are doing good everything is fine.
Sadly, they'll probably find out soon that unless the rest of us are doing fine, the banskters are still in trouble.
Sadly, they'll probably find out soon that unless the rest of us are doing fine, the banskters are still in trouble.
Dream
The post-war boom in single-family residential housing, fueled by a complex collection of subsidies, was a huge boon to a couple of generations. But if you are under 55 or so, it is not turning out so well.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Virtually Speaking
Tonight's guests are Digby and Jay Ackroyd, listen now (8:00 PM Eastern) or later at the link.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
Someone's Gotta Go To Disney World
There's this weird disconnect in our discourse, where it's expected that people take plane trips, fill hotel rooms, go fill the seats in the local steak house, etc... but that anyone who does such things is spending on unnecessary luxuries.
Kids Today Suck
And it's their fault they don't graduate college debt free and find instant meaningful employment with affordable health insurance.
Where We Are
As Stan Collender says, elites demanded we listened to the bond market up until the point when the bond market started to send a different message, at which point it was "LA LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU MUST DESTROY LIVES OF MORE PEOPLE LA LA LA".
Nobody Could Have Predicted
It'd be one thing if austerity was truly the only way forward, but austerity was pushed by elites as a way of actually helping these economies to convince them to bail out their creditors.
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has Karzai and some people to talk about the not mosque.
Face the Nation has Odierno and Attorney General Graham.
Meet the Press (is this a joke?) has McConnell, Armey, Granholm, Katty Kay, Paul Gigot, Jeffrey Goldberg, and Rick Lazio.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has Odierno and Attorney General Graham.
Meet the Press (is this a joke?) has McConnell, Armey, Granholm, Katty Kay, Paul Gigot, Jeffrey Goldberg, and Rick Lazio.
Document the atrocities!
Threats
Pew:
More Detail:
This is insane. Utterly delusional. A demonstration of the power of propaganda even in a society with very open communication systems. The survey itself exhibits the propaganda bias; "No major threat exists" is apparently not a choice.
The only threat that remotely compares to a country aiming thousands of nuclear weapons at US population centers, set to launch on command, is climate change. In some ways it is more insidious because it requires a government looking at generational timeframes. But, c'mon. Pakistani instability poses a threat to the US? 85% of the Serious People say so.
And, wonderin' aloud, the threat from Pakistan is that it will launch an attack against India, right? And the Iran threat involves attacking its neighbors. So, why is Israel, not an NPT signatory, not on this list?
The public and CFR members generally see the world as more dangerous for the United States since the Cold War ended two decades ago. And majorities in both groups say the danger of an attack on the United States with a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon is greater now than a decade ago.
More Detail:
This is insane. Utterly delusional. A demonstration of the power of propaganda even in a society with very open communication systems. The survey itself exhibits the propaganda bias; "No major threat exists" is apparently not a choice.
The only threat that remotely compares to a country aiming thousands of nuclear weapons at US population centers, set to launch on command, is climate change. In some ways it is more insidious because it requires a government looking at generational timeframes. But, c'mon. Pakistani instability poses a threat to the US? 85% of the Serious People say so.
And, wonderin' aloud, the threat from Pakistan is that it will launch an attack against India, right? And the Iran threat involves attacking its neighbors. So, why is Israel, not an NPT signatory, not on this list?
Saturday, August 21, 2010
When Liberalism Doesn't Work It Discredits Liberalism
Aside from the fact that I'm not happy with certain outcomes, if you do liberalism badly then people get it in their heads that maybe liberalism is pretty sucky. The economy sucks and HAMP was a complete failure, whether deliberately or not, and that's what people know.
Pastor Gerson Explains The World
NPR had on Pastor Gerson, a man who had no small part in helping to liberate large numbers of Muslims from their lives, to discuss the Park51 "controversy." He explained the big problem is that the debate is dominated by people on one side who think that Islam is not compatible with plurality, and on the other side by people who think that all who oppose are simply bigots.
The next piece was about a bunch of bigots who are protesting a mosque somewhere in California.
The next piece was about a bunch of bigots who are protesting a mosque somewhere in California.
Dumb Ideas Which Probably Won't Happen Anyway
Just to prove there's at least one SUPERTRAIN project I think is stupid.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Friday Late Night
Some more banks got eated, too lazy to link. I'm sure they were tasty.
Glad that the couple of times people asked me if they should bother with HAMP I said...well...not sure...but leaning against. Walk away instead.
Glad that the couple of times people asked me if they should bother with HAMP I said...well...not sure...but leaning against. Walk away instead.
The Horror Show Continued
Mike Konczal:
Really fucking unbelievable. As I think I said to Mike at Netroots Nation, if HAMP is actually a program designed to boost the housing market and funnel money several billion more dollars to banks, it's also a really fucking horrible and stupid and inefficient way to do that even without the "screwing people over" part.
- They are sticking by HAMP. The narrative seemed to change from helping homeowners to spacing out the foreclosures. I asked them to repeat it, because the idea that billions of taxpayer dollars are being spent to smooth out foreclosures for banks struck me as new narrative – it’s explicitly extend-and-pretend, and also fairly cynical.
- There was talk about how fiscal policy can’t move through Congress. I asked them about only 0.5% of HAMP being spent and how that could be used without Congress’ permission. Before I suggest that the remainder of the $50bn be divided into two funds, the Digging Holes Across States (DHAS) fund and the Filling Holes Across States (FHAS) fund, two far more socially productive means of spending the HAMP money than what is currently being done with it, I was told that the entire $50bn is expected to be spent by the time the program is over. I didn’t believe it; we will see.
Really fucking unbelievable. As I think I said to Mike at Netroots Nation, if HAMP is actually a program designed to boost the housing market and funnel money several billion more dollars to banks, it's also a really fucking horrible and stupid and inefficient way to do that even without the "screwing people over" part.
Horror Show
Thanks for finally admitting the HAMP was essentially an 'extend and pretend' plan, a way to gouge a few more pennies out of desperate homeowners before dumping them on the streets. We're from the government, and we're here to fuck you over.
Hey, It's Friday
And another week in the month of stupid (August) is almost over. I hope the Dems are planning to roll out some new product after labor day, because "vote for us because we're not going to privatize social security" isn't really going to cut it.
Destroying Their Retirement Savings
NPR had a bit about how people are cashing out their retirement plans, or in some cases taking out loans from them (better, do that if you can), due to hardship needs. We should be talking about lowering the Social Security retirement age, not increasing it.
Stop Listening To The People Who Are Wrong All The Time
Something had to cause that premature austerity pivot the administration began several months back.
December Is The Bleakest Month
Given the basic dynamics of the catfood commission: Republicans don't need a 'win' but Dems do and Republicans won't support any tax increases except maybe regressive ones, there's a good chance that come December that they will come out with a "compromise" which will include raising the Social Security retirement age. Why Dems think a political winner will be destroying their one remaining brand, basically the most popular thing the government does, and opening themselves up for attack ads stating, truthfully, "Congressman X voted to raise your retirement age..." I do not know.
December will, for us, be the busiest month.
December will, for us, be the busiest month.
Where'd All The God Talk Go
While we're debating whether Obama is a secret Muslim, it occurs to me that all the religion talk that infused our political discourse for a few years there has almost disappeared.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Mainstream Positions
I think Amanda goes a bit wrong with the last paragraph.
Things that are mainstream aren't necessarily true, and plenty of thoroughly mainstream views in a majority Christian country seem as "nutty" to nonbelievers as the apparent non-mainstream beliefs she listed. Atheism is obviously a fringe belief in the US, as is belief in the Islamic religion.
The point is there's a difference between beliefs about things which are basically verified or verifiable and beliefs which are in the realm of faith. Yes it's possible Obama is secretly a Muslim, but all available facts (remember that Reverend Wright stuff?) suggest otherwise. The virgin birth and divinity of Jesus and the existence of ghosts are, as far as I know, not exactly verified and as of yet not verifiable. Still people are free to believe them and I can't say they're wrong, I can only say I doubt they're right.
..adding that while I'm not religious despite occasional accusations to the contrary I'm not anti-religion. Most of us believe in things which don't necessarily have a strong factual basis, and most of us probably construct some unsupported paradigm to try to make sense of the universe and our place in it.
There have been many news reports over the past few years debunking the rumor that Obama is a Muslim. Nevertheless, the right-wing media continues to push the myth. These fringe views aren’t rejected by influential conservatives, but often embraced, and therefore picked up in mainstream discourse and media. Saying that he needs to publicly change his habits of worship in order to appease people is like saying he needs to roll around in big piles of money to show he isn’t a socialist.
And in the end, there will always be people who can’t be convinced of mainstream positions. Twenty-one percent of the public believes in witches, 41 percent believe in ESP, and 34 percent are convinced that “houses can be haunted.”
Things that are mainstream aren't necessarily true, and plenty of thoroughly mainstream views in a majority Christian country seem as "nutty" to nonbelievers as the apparent non-mainstream beliefs she listed. Atheism is obviously a fringe belief in the US, as is belief in the Islamic religion.
The point is there's a difference between beliefs about things which are basically verified or verifiable and beliefs which are in the realm of faith. Yes it's possible Obama is secretly a Muslim, but all available facts (remember that Reverend Wright stuff?) suggest otherwise. The virgin birth and divinity of Jesus and the existence of ghosts are, as far as I know, not exactly verified and as of yet not verifiable. Still people are free to believe them and I can't say they're wrong, I can only say I doubt they're right.
..adding that while I'm not religious despite occasional accusations to the contrary I'm not anti-religion. Most of us believe in things which don't necessarily have a strong factual basis, and most of us probably construct some unsupported paradigm to try to make sense of the universe and our place in it.
Fee For Service
While I'm not entirely against efforts to make people pay for the actual costs of driving, I think the problems with limiting the free provision of all local public services to locals only are rather obvious.
HUNTINGTON BEACH - Nonresidents who cause car accidents will now be billed for emergency response services, which may cost upwards of $3,000 depending on the accident.
City Council members at their meeting Monday approved a cost recovery program for emergency services including car accidents, car fires and pipeline and power line damage.
Think I Need A Surprised Face Logo
Surprise!
An anticipated gradual gain in US employment has turned into a surprising deterioration, and that has economists worried about the increasing threat to the economic recovery.
Speaking Of Allen
Ah, yes, and the other bit was Mike Allen typing things up for the purpose of giving me a stroke, but fortunately my bullshit filter was working when I read it.
Long Bomb
Can't find the link at the moment, but saw a Mike Allen thingy which I'll take with a couple of grains of salt because it seemed to be a mix of things he heard and overinterpretation of those things. That is, I couldn't quite tell what to actually attribute to people in the administration. But, in any case, one bit of it was that the administration thinks they can't get any stimulus out of Congress except the small and not especially helpful small business help bill.
Maybe this is true. And maybe the people in the White House know a lot more about how the Village works than I do. But I don't get the allergy to getting on the teevee every day and saying "this is what we need to do" while daring Congress to do it. You may not get it done, but at least people would have a sense of a) what you want to do and b) why it isn't happening. Maybe you could actually blame Republicans!
Oh well, I guess we can wait for the catfood commission to stick it to poor old people.
Maybe this is true. And maybe the people in the White House know a lot more about how the Village works than I do. But I don't get the allergy to getting on the teevee every day and saying "this is what we need to do" while daring Congress to do it. You may not get it done, but at least people would have a sense of a) what you want to do and b) why it isn't happening. Maybe you could actually blame Republicans!
Oh well, I guess we can wait for the catfood commission to stick it to poor old people.
Car Sharing Will Save The World
Good for San Francisco for pushing car sharing. The enemy of a good urban landscape is too many cars, but of course cars are useful things and people sometimes need to use them even in an urban hellhole with good walkability and decent mass transit. For anyone who doesn't need a car to commute and who otherwise might want to use a car just a couple of times each month, car sharing is a great solution. Can cancel that car insurance policy!
A Wee Unemployment Problem
There's no perfect correspondence between the weekly new jobless number, which measures the gross number of new people receiving claims, and the monthly jobs number, which measures net jobs. That is, in theory you could have a large amount of churning in the job market while still having net positive jobs but it isn't very likely. Presumably the next jobs number will be less than good, and I'll be shocked if the unemployment number doesn't shoot up.
Happy campaign season! Thanks for the insurance policy Larry.
Happy campaign season! Thanks for the insurance policy Larry.
But Minorities Are The Real Racists
Sadly I don't think the press is just playing dumb about the bigots being, you know, bigots. They're generally pretty clueless about issues that any marginal group faces, due to race, gender, ethnicity, sexuality, or anything else, and aren't any more enlightened about them than the general public.
The Great Shirk
It's somewhat amusing to discover that many economists I remember from my days in academia are completely bonkers.
They Don't Really Believe It
But our media has created an environment which has made anti-Muslim bigotry perfectly acceptable, in fact an honest expression of deep heartland values. So people say he's a Muslim.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
And hey, another surprise. [[Surprised Face]]
New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly climbed to a nine-month high last week, government data showed on Thursday, yet another setback to the frail economic recovery.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 500,000 in the week ended Aug. 14, the highest since mid-November, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims slipping to 476,000 from the previously reported 484,000 the prior week, which was revised up to 488,000 in Thursday's report.
Impossible to Say
For me, the most depressing thing about contemporary politics is how despite everything that has transpired in reality, in Villager Years, which are like Dog Years only more gristly, it is always and forever October 2001 and George Doubleyew Shithead Reigns Eternal.
A-fucking-men.
A-fucking-men.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
We Won Or We Think We Did
The teevee tells me it's the official end of the Iraq war, except for the 50,000 or so we seem to leave behind everywhere we go.
Not really the end, of course, but I guess we can pretend for a bit. Here's a reminder of how we went there in the first place, from Richard Cohen.
And Natalie can speak for the fools and Frenchmen among us.
Not really the end, of course, but I guess we can pretend for a bit. Here's a reminder of how we went there in the first place, from Richard Cohen.
The evidence he presented to the United Nations -- some of it circumstantial, some of it absolutely bone-chilling in its detail -- had to prove to anyone that Iraq not only hasn't accounted for its weapons of mass destruction but without a doubt still retains them. Only a fool -- or possibly a Frenchman -- could conclude otherwise.
And Natalie can speak for the fools and Frenchmen among us.
Also, Iraq War Was A Bad Idea. Refudiate It And Such.
Not that it wasn't obvious before, but it's apparent from the Bai piece that the Obama people figured that the economy would turn itself around just fast enough that everything would be OK. But that just doesn't happen in all recessions, and more than that there were plenty of reasons to see that the usual tool, monetary policy, just wasn't going to do the trick. Normal expansionary monetary policy works through the banking sector which, in case you hadn't noticed, is a wee bit dysfunctional these days. Even if it wasn't, interest rates were already pretty low and because of the zero bound there just wasn't much wiggle room. The Fed did do nontraditional things like buying up bits of big shitpile, but that was more about propping up that dysfunctional banking sector than actually turning the economy around.
Maybe somebody should do something?
Maybe somebody should do something?
Getting So Much Better All The Time
The 2005 spike was due to impending law change.
The country has a problem.
U.S. bankruptcy filings have reached the highest level since 2005, government data released on Tuesday show, as the economy slows and the unemployment rate hovers just below double digits.
There were 422,061 bankruptcy filings between April and June, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, up 9 percent from 388,148 in the prior three-month period, and up 11 percent from 381,073 a year earlier.
The country has a problem.
It's The Stupid Economy Stupids
I get the desire to spin out grander narratives, but it's really that simple.
That and the fact that members of the professional left can't say with a straight face things like, "Vote for Democrats! They won't cut your social security!" because there is no such commitment on the table.
That and the fact that members of the professional left can't say with a straight face things like, "Vote for Democrats! They won't cut your social security!" because there is no such commitment on the table.
No It Doesn't
Why it's difficult to give a shit about the November elections.
President Obama said Social Security is not in crisis and only modest changes are needed to keep it solvent.
The president acknowledged at a small town hall gathering in Columbus, Ohio, Wednesday that the pension fund "has to be tweaked because the population is getting older" but said Republicans' plans to drastically overhaul the program are wrong.
If You Design Place For Cars You'll Get Places Designed For Cars
There are lots of car centric places in this country. Those places are unlikely to change, and more than that I expect more of them to be built. I don't have a problem with that. Lots of people like cars and places designed for cars. I don't, personally, so I object to policies which push the urban hellhole in a car-centric direction. The main policy I'm talking about is minimum parking requirements. Plenty of existing residents disagree with me, as for them (many are car owners) the issue is concern that new development will mean more competition for existing parking spaces. I think their solution - more mandatory parking! - is a mistake as it ensures more cars will come.
Blue Dogged
I admit it's quite nice feeling that for the first time in forever I can actually root for a few bad Dems to lose their seats.
Inevitably the beltway gas bags will tell us that when they lose it's because Obama is too liberal and we're a center right nation blah blah blah. It's the same story they've been telling since I've paid attention.
Inevitably the beltway gas bags will tell us that when they lose it's because Obama is too liberal and we're a center right nation blah blah blah. It's the same story they've been telling since I've paid attention.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
It's so depressing.
The austerity measures that were supposed to fix Greece's problems are dragging down the country's economy. Stores are closing, tax revenues are falling and unemployment has hit an unbelievable 70 percent in some places. Frustrated workers are threatening to strike back.
Progress!!
So awesome.
Call centre workers are becoming as cheap to hire in the US as they are in India, according to the head of the country’s largest business process outsourcing company.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Time Goes By
One thing that was painfully obvious when I was still teaching was that as each year passed there was less and less overlap between the cultural frame of reference of the students and my frame of reference. I don't mean that I ceased to be hip to whatever music they were listening to, but the increasing degree to which basic current events for me were ancient history for them.
Members of this year's incoming college freshman class were born in 1992. They were six when Bill Clinton's penis almost destroyed the world. As a historian friend occasionally says, she doesn't yet have to explain who Monica Lewinsky is, but she will soon...
Members of this year's incoming college freshman class were born in 1992. They were six when Bill Clinton's penis almost destroyed the world. As a historian friend occasionally says, she doesn't yet have to explain who Monica Lewinsky is, but she will soon...
BLAGO
The internets tell me jury hung on 23 counts, guilty verdict on 1 count of lying to FBI...
...adding that I didn't follow the case or trial very closely, but from what I did see I'm not very surprised. Blago seemed to be more guilty of being clumsy than doing anything that politicians don't do every day, just a bit more intelligently. That isn't to say it's right, but just that politics involves deals and it's difficult to criminalize anything short of a clear bribe along the lines of "transfer $50,000 to my personal Swiss bank account and I will do this for you."
...adding that I didn't follow the case or trial very closely, but from what I did see I'm not very surprised. Blago seemed to be more guilty of being clumsy than doing anything that politicians don't do every day, just a bit more intelligently. That isn't to say it's right, but just that politics involves deals and it's difficult to criminalize anything short of a clear bribe along the lines of "transfer $50,000 to my personal Swiss bank account and I will do this for you."
HCR
Basically, I think it's fair to say that HCR as passed is a potential path to a path to a better health insurance system, but absent a public option or similar there's no guarantee that we're actually on even the path to the path yet. A public option would have been the simple fix to a lot of potential problems, and also would have been quite difficult to take away.
Cuba Travel
I think the fact that George Bush made it much harder for people to travel to Cuba was one of those stories that got a bit lost. One had to jump through hoops a bit to do so prior to his administration, but it was doable.
Deep Thought
Perhaps I was right to be a bit skeptical about claims from Republicans and conservatives that they wanted to liberate Muslims from tyranny.
Nothing To Be Done
As I wrote awhile back, look for economists chalking up the shitty economy to "structural unemployment" as a justification for just... doing... nothing.
We are ruled by incompetent fools. At least they have jobs.
We are ruled by incompetent fools. At least they have jobs.
The Stock Market Is The Economy
The degree to which the mood and tenor of reporting on the economy is driven by stock market fluctuations is frustrating. If it goes down there's a "maybe we're all doomed" message being conveyed, if it goes up it's "phew everything's ok after all!"
9.5% unemployment is not ok. And it'll be higher next month...
9.5% unemployment is not ok. And it'll be higher next month...
So You're All Utter Sociopaths Then
Not so long ago Evan Thomas was on some NPR show and he stated that he thought US journalists were generally in favor of the Iraq war (duh) because, I think his reasoning was, they "like conflict" or something like that. Now if he'd claimed that US journalists were in favor of the war because they believed Iraq was a legitimate national security threat I would've thought they were stupid, but the whole country was pretty stupid. Instead, apparently, they were for the war because they get excited by the thought of lots of innocent children getting their limbs blown off. No of course they don't think of it that way, but that's what war is and if they aren't capable of understanding that...
Mostly It Was About Punching Hippies
There was some discussion on the twitter about who coined the phrase "hippie punching" for its current lefty blog usage. Not sure, though it actually seems to be a pretty recent blog term. In any case, it occurred to me that the whole Iraq war stuff was mostly about punching hippies, as if until 9/11 US foreign policy was governed by People With Giant Puppets and then suddenly an opportunity arose to show those people (hippies) once and for all.
Such a strange time.
Such a strange time.
Meanwhile
Remember when only crazy hippies thought this endeavor was a really bad idea?
Almost a dim memory now, but it's radicalizing when people think you're crazy for thinking that Colin Powell's vial of white powder was not, in fact, dangerous.
BAGHDAD — A suicide bomber struck early on Tuesday at an army recruiting office here, killing dozens in the first major bombing of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan — a period made more fraught than in previous years by the looming deadline for American forces to replace their combat mission here with a training role.
Almost a dim memory now, but it's radicalizing when people think you're crazy for thinking that Colin Powell's vial of white powder was not, in fact, dangerous.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Two Blocks Is A Million Miles
I'll be glad when August is over and I can stop talking about how Obama is setting up the death panels in Park51 near the WTC, because 99% of the obvious response is: you people are insane bigots and our mainstream media apparently loves you. But the other issue is simply that in Manhattan, 2 blocks is the equivalent of a million miles most places. The amount of people, employers, and retail packed into 2 blocks anywhere in Manhattan is huge. The sense of what is or isn't 'close' is totally different. 2 block is close, but within 2 blocks you have multitudes.
I'll Keep Repeating Myself
With interest rates this low it's stupid for the government not to borrow absurd amounts of money to spend on things like rebuilding crumbling bridges and redoing water/sewage systems.
Sounds Like Communism
DC is good in various ways with respect to transit (Metro) and just being walkable generally, but it's also obviously the case that quite often car traffic considerations take priority over pedestrian considerations. Good if that is changing, because there are a lot of pedestrians!
...adding, meant to write pedestrians&cyclists but somehow that last bit didn't get in there.
...adding, meant to write pedestrians&cyclists but somehow that last bit didn't get in there.
HAMP'd
It's all worth reading, but the punchline is this.
HAMP's failure has screwed homeowners, and quite likely the economy generally and potentially the fortunes of a certain political party.
Despite violations of the program guidelines such as the extended trials, the Treasury Department has not penalized any servicers.
HAMP's failure has screwed homeowners, and quite likely the economy generally and potentially the fortunes of a certain political party.
Mysterious Things Which Actually Aren't Mysterious
Sometimes Cato loves big government restrictions on private property.
It is not actually especially mysterious.
It is not actually especially mysterious.
The Bond Vigilantes Are Coming
Nobody could have predicted that the Masters of the Universe are always wrong about everything.
10-Year Treasury is currently at 2.59%.
As 2010 began, there was nearly unanimous agreement in financial circles on at least one thing: Interest rates were sure to rise during the year.
...
The governments are seeking ways to bring down budget deficits, fearing that without austerity they could go so far into debt that they would never be able to borrow again. Investors in the financial markets seem to be much more concerned by the possibility of renewed recession and a general deflation that could send asset values and prices down.
That market reaction is the opposite of what happened in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Then “bond vigilantes” were reluctant to invest in United States Treasury securities because they feared runaway inflation. Their refusal drove up the interest rates the government had to pay on its borrowings and eventually led the Federal Reserve, under Paul A. Volcker, to wage war against inflation even if it meant choking off economic growth.
10-Year Treasury is currently at 2.59%.
Two Americas
This provides a good companion to Douthat's column.
(ht reader k)
Young and strapping, the 57 Irish immigrants began grueling work in the summer of 1832 on the Philadelphia and Columbia railroad. Within weeks, all were dead of cholera.
Or were they murdered?
Two skulls unearthed at a probable mass grave near Philadelphia this month showed signs of violence, including a possible bullet hole. Another pair of skulls found earlier at the woodsy site also displayed traumas, seeming to confirm the suspicions of two historians leading the archaeological dig.
"This was much more than a cholera epidemic,'' William Watson said.
(ht reader k)
Muslims=Nazis
Newt Gingrich is a very serious person. I wonder which Sunday show he'll be on this week?
National
Just got an email from National Journal informing me that the "Mosque Issue" which the national press has been obsessing about for weeks, because they obsess about anything crazy right wingers want them to, has now gone "national."
I see.
I see.
Morning and Shit
I kind of avoided the news all weekend, but it's Monday, guess it's time to be back at it.
Cheap labor. Thanks for the link Avedon.
Cheap labor. Thanks for the link Avedon.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
In His Heart He's A Truly Wonderful Man
So, you know, best to just ignore what he says when he's on the radio. Really!
Sunday Bobbleheads
This Week has Corker, Corzine, some dick from the Chamber, and Laura D'Andrea Tyson.
Meet the Press has Saint Petraeus
Face the Nation has Kaine, Rendell, and Gillespie. Who's missing?
Document the atrocities!
Meet the Press has Saint Petraeus
Face the Nation has Kaine, Rendell, and Gillespie. Who's missing?
Document the atrocities!
Morning
So religious freedom means you can be Baptist or Evangelical or maybe even Jewish, but that's about it?
Saturday, August 14, 2010
I'm Sure There Will Be No Unintended Consequences
There never are.
WASHINGTON — At first, the news from Yemen on May 25 sounded like a modest victory in the campaign against terrorists: an airstrike had hit a group suspected of being operatives for Al Qaeda in the remote desert of Marib Province, birthplace of the legendary queen of Sheba.
But the strike, it turned out, had also killed the province’s deputy governor, a respected local leader who Yemeni officials said had been trying to talk Qaeda members into giving up their fight. Yemen’s president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, accepted responsibility for the death and paid blood money to the offended tribes.
The strike, though, was not the work of Mr. Saleh’s decrepit Soviet-era air force. It was a secret mission by the United States military, according to American officials, at least the fourth such assault on Al Qaeda in the arid mountains and deserts of Yemen since December.
Village Journalists Against The 1st Amendment
Maybe they should advocate for its repeal or something.
Good For Him
While I don't think opposition to the Mosque is quite as strong as a rather badly worded poll suggests, and I highly doubt there's any intensity to the issue except among the people who wouldn't vote for a Democrat ever, it is good to see Obama take a stand on an issue without much obvious political upside because it's the right thing to do.
Hahahahaha
Six months more has been the strategy all along.
"General Petraeus is a smart man and he attracts smart people and I know that since he's been given this onerous duty, he's been looking at at least tactical and operational shifts," said Patrick Cronin, a South Asian expert at the Center for a New American Security and one of the contributors to the report. "But what he isn't addressing is the need for a new political strategy."
Cronin said Petraeus's target audience "shouldn't buy into this military incrementalism. 'Six months more' is not a strategy."
ella
Baby steps towards contraception sanity.
WASHINGTON — Federal drug regulators on Friday approved a new form of emergency contraceptive pill that prevents pregnancies if taken as many as five days after unprotected intercourse.
The pill, called ella, will be available by prescription only. Developed in government laboratories, it is more effective than Plan B, the morning-after pill now available over the counter to women 17 and older.
Morning and Stuff
Yea! President Obama has come out in favor of the Islamic Center in lower Manhattan.
Really, this shouldn't even be an issue.
Really, this shouldn't even be an issue.
Friday, August 13, 2010
I Admit One Major Counterexample Doesn't Necessarily Prove Him Wrong
But...it is a pretty major one...
Can't Actually Tie Hands
I think more important than the absurdity of believing strongly in any long term projections is the absurdity of thinking that some long term budget roadmap is going to be passed and then everyone declares victory and goes home for 70 years. We have an obvious example in recent history, when during the Clinton era we got rid of the deficit and then Alan Greenspan said that surpluses were dangerous and Bush passed massive deficit increasing tax cuts.
Lunch Thread
enjoy
...adding, I forgot to mention earlier that I heard part of a piece on NPR about the economy, and the basic gist was the consumers just need to be more confident that we aren't entering a double dip and all will be well. There seems to be little understanding that people aren't spending money because they, you know, don't have any, and not because of unwarranted existential angst about the future.
...adding, I forgot to mention earlier that I heard part of a piece on NPR about the economy, and the basic gist was the consumers just need to be more confident that we aren't entering a double dip and all will be well. There seems to be little understanding that people aren't spending money because they, you know, don't have any, and not because of unwarranted existential angst about the future.
Fallows Disappoints
It's true that some of us have a rather negative reaction to Jeffrey Goldberg, The Worst Person In The World, but there is good reason for that reaction, and it isn't simply about past sins. Journalists demand we Respect Their Authoritah, but then give us little reason to do so.
Paul Ryan Is A Very Serious Person
And the Village loves him because he wants old people to starve and go without health care.
Standing
People were chatting about this on comments yesterday. Tt's not clear that the Prop H8ers have any standing to appeal.
Although he allowed the coalition of religious and conservative groups that sponsored the measure to defend the lawsuit during the 13-day trial over which he presided, the judge said appellate courts have different rules for deciding when a party is eligible to challenge a lower court.
Based on his interpretation of those rules, it appears the ban's sponsors can only appeal his decision with the backing of either Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger or Attorney General Jerry Brown, Walker said. But that seems unlikely as both officials refused to defend Proposition 8 in Walker's court and said last week they see no reason why gay couples should not be able to tie the knot now.
Walker also turned aside arguments that marriages performed now could be thrown into legal chaos if Proposition 8 is later upheld by an appeals court. He pointed to the 18,000 same-sex couples who married legally in the five months that gay marriage was legal in California as proof.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Jobs
It occurs to me that the headline unemployment rate is likely to increase every month until the election, or at least for the next couple of reports as this past one was only flat because so many people dropped out of the labor force.
Maybe somebody should think about this.
Maybe somebody should think about this.
The Agenda
I suppose one waits until after Labor Day to roll out new product, but is there any expectation that the Dems will have any kind of agenda for the campaign season?
Completely Sensible Policies Which Aren't On The Table
I'm repeating myself, but in a sane world we wouldn't be worried about the catfood commission, instead Democrats would be at least temporarily lowering the full Social Security eligibility age to 62 and lowering the reduced benefit eligibility age to 60. This economy is horrible. It isn't getting better. People who lose their jobs at that age aren't going to get new ones which come even close to replacing the wages they've lost, if they get new ones at all.
I know we don't live in a sane world, we live in a world where Paul Ryan is Very Serious because he usually manages to tie his shoes, but someone has to say it.
I know we don't live in a sane world, we live in a world where Paul Ryan is Very Serious because he usually manages to tie his shoes, but someone has to say it.
The Dreams Of Reporters
They really are an awful lot.
That's Mike Allen chatting with Hugh Hewitt.
MA: (laughing) I don’t know, but I can tell you the press loves the fact that Ken Buck, he’ll definitely be covered. Very colorful, he definitely will be good copy. It’s just like the dream of every reporter is that the Republicans will pick up nine seats, and that Marco Rubio wins in Florida, because Hugh, you know what that means?
HH: Impeachment! No. (laughing)
MA: That’s a 50-50 Senate. That’s power sharing. Ben Nelson suddenly is huge.
That's Mike Allen chatting with Hugh Hewitt.
The Forgotten Foreclosure Crisis
It keeps getting worse, but it no longer exists.
RealtyTrac says foreclosure notices rose 4% last month, the 17th straight month filings have exceeded 300,000. And RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga tells MarketWatch News Break that foreclosures may not peak until 2011.
Loanable Funds Fallacy
This is why I'm pretty pessimistic about effectiveness of Fed action. Yves Smith:
The banksters like cheap money. They can bring it to the casino. It doesn't mean they have a desire to lend it, or that the rest of us want to expand our capacity to build widgets that no one has any money to buy.
Can you see why this won’t work? The Fed’s implicit reasoning is that the BoJ didn’t shove money into the banking system in a way that would lead businesses to borrow, but the Fed has a better mousetrap. Huh? This is the loanable funds fallacy, that if you make money cheap enough, firms will borrow and invest.
But the cost of money is only one factor in a business’s decision to expand, and outside of financial firms, it’s typically a constraint, not a spur. If you run a dry cleaner, are you going to say, “Gee, my borrowing rate went down a point, I think I’ll open that new store”? The fall in the cost of money would change your action only if it was a critical factor, at the margin, and had restricted you. And for the vast majority of enterprises, the decision of whether to grow or not is based first and foremost on their reading of the environment, which includes the strength of the market for their services, the likelihood of competitor response, whether there are steps they can take to alleviate risk, like securing commitments from prospective customers or tying up critical technology or vendors.
The banksters like cheap money. They can bring it to the casino. It doesn't mean they have a desire to lend it, or that the rest of us want to expand our capacity to build widgets that no one has any money to buy.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
Surprise. Still high.
The number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose in the latest week to its highest level in close to six months, a fresh signal of a weak jobs market.
The number of new claims for jobless benefits rose 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended August 7, the second straight increase, Labor Department data showed on Thursday.
Gibby
From where I sit, this flap was really about the Obama administration reassuring fellow members of their New Democrat "centrist" movement that they were staying the course. Erskine Bowles and William Simpson still chair the Catfood Commission. While they have "nominated" Elizabeth Warren, Timmeh's commitment to the new normal will still rule economic policy-making.
There is no chance that the administration will advocate a cheaper, more effective, more popular health care system like the one run by the pinko Canadians. And the manly US war machine will continue to be the foundation of the Beltway entitlement system.
I suppose it would an interesting innovation for the press to discuss whether these policies were a good idea, rather than just whose knickers are just in what state of twistiness. Alas.
Another Gibby, from a younger day:
There is no chance that the administration will advocate a cheaper, more effective, more popular health care system like the one run by the pinko Canadians. And the manly US war machine will continue to be the foundation of the Beltway entitlement system.
I suppose it would an interesting innovation for the press to discuss whether these policies were a good idea, rather than just whose knickers are just in what state of twistiness. Alas.
Another Gibby, from a younger day:
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Gotta Water The Green Shoots
I don't think I have perfect predictive powers, and more than that my skepticism about the supposedly recovering economy mostly didn't come from my Ph.D in economics (plenty of people with those are idiots), but from some basic common sense combined with a bit of observation. It was common sense at the level which lead me to conclude years ago that we had a housing bubble because I knew that not that enough households have enough money to afford those homes. Some of my skepticism came from knowing what the data meant a bit, but mostly it was just that I never saw any evidence that a jobs recovery was coming, along with a greater appreciation for the problems of the housing/foreclosure markets and what they meant for the macroeconomy.
Once we overshot their "pessimistic" unemployment predictions the administration should have adjusted. Mostly they didn't. Obviously I think more and better stimulus (either fiscal or monetary) would have helped. Fixing the housing problem sensibly would have helped some too. The point isn't that there was some magic obvious solution, the point is that the problem was bigger than they imagined and, frankly, recovery noises from the administration started to remind me of Bush era noises about how things were always improving in Iraq.
While I think they should have actually tried to make the case, I'm sympathetic to the argument that a bigger stimulus couldn't have gotten through Congress. So what did they do wrong? They failed to actively support judicial bankruptcy for primary residence first mortgages (aka cramdown) and they totally screwed up HAMP. The latter was entirely under their control and the former would have stood some chance of passing if the White House had thrown its weight behind it. It didn't.
Once we overshot their "pessimistic" unemployment predictions the administration should have adjusted. Mostly they didn't. Obviously I think more and better stimulus (either fiscal or monetary) would have helped. Fixing the housing problem sensibly would have helped some too. The point isn't that there was some magic obvious solution, the point is that the problem was bigger than they imagined and, frankly, recovery noises from the administration started to remind me of Bush era noises about how things were always improving in Iraq.
While I think they should have actually tried to make the case, I'm sympathetic to the argument that a bigger stimulus couldn't have gotten through Congress. So what did they do wrong? They failed to actively support judicial bankruptcy for primary residence first mortgages (aka cramdown) and they totally screwed up HAMP. The latter was entirely under their control and the former would have stood some chance of passing if the White House had thrown its weight behind it. It didn't.
Beach Reading
Some just released lighter fare for those of you who are interested in awesome reports. I support FITs in the US, and though I'm aware of some disagreement about the social inequality aspects of FITs, I think it's a trivial matter to resolve via customer differentiation. Plus, the poor will disproportionately bear the brunt of climate change.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Another exciting day at the dog track.
Bummer for your retirement fund, if you have one, but maybe a panicky "Street" will spur action.
Bummer for your retirement fund, if you have one, but maybe a panicky "Street" will spur action.
Nothing To See Here Folks
Move along folks.
Tens of thousands of dead fish are lining the Jersey Shore -- as far as the eye can see -- beginning at High’s Beach in Middle Township Wednesday.
“Once you figured out what it was, the smell hit you,” Flavia Scotto of Burlington, N.J. said about the bizarre fish kill.
Well You All Saw That Time Cover Right????
You know, the one Rick Stengel used to prove we have to stay in Afghanistan so that young women can continue to be tortured and mutilated. Or something. It didn't make any sense.
But look for more of it...
But look for more of it...
Compromise
In Broderesque fashion, I've developed a compromise for what was once called the Cordoba House. Just build a replica of The Great Mosque of Córdoba Catedral de Nuestra Señora de la Asunción.
Riding The El
I looked this up a few weeks ago and don't remember where I found the numbers, but about as many people ride 76, the highway into the city from the Western suburbs, daily within the city as ride the Market-Frankford El, the largely East-West subway/El line.
This isn't a precise apples to apples comparison, of course, but it struck me because the plight of the poor car commuter is given a hell of a lot more attention than the plight of the daily transit rider. Real time traffic info is ominpresent in local media during rush hour.
This isn't a precise apples to apples comparison, of course, but it struck me because the plight of the poor car commuter is given a hell of a lot more attention than the plight of the daily transit rider. Real time traffic info is ominpresent in local media during rush hour.
Getting Worse
The mainstreaming of lying bigots by our press is something that's gotten a lot worse over the past several years.
Lawn Mower
Data suggests that Q2 GDP growth was not as large as first thought.
Maybe somebody should do something?
Maybe somebody should do something?
psss... people can't afford that crap
It's satisfying to cheer on the potential woes of Live Nation who are discovering that as their ticket prices have gone from the absurd to the obscene people have stopped paying.
I wish the article delved into the fortunes of smaller (200-2000) venues where you can see bands for $10-25 generally, and where the beer doesn't cost $13.
I wish the article delved into the fortunes of smaller (200-2000) venues where you can see bands for $10-25 generally, and where the beer doesn't cost $13.
Something
I worry eligibility requirements and various hoops will make this less effective than it could be, but providing no interest non recourse loans to help the unemployed keep their homes is something.
This new program will complement Treasury’s Hardest Hit Fund by providing assistance to homeowners in hard hit local areas that may not be included in the hardest hit target states. Those areas are still being determined.
The program will work through a variety of state and non-profit entities and will offer a declining balance, deferred payment “bridge loan” (zero percent interest, non-recourse, subordinate loan) for up to $50,000 to assist eligible borrowers with payments on their mortgage principal, interest, mortgage insurance, taxes and hazard insurance for up to 24 months.
Under the program, eligible borrowers must:
1. Be at least three months delinquent in their payments and have a reasonable likelihood of being able to resume repayment of their mortgage payments and related housing expenses within two years;
2. Have a mortgage property that is the principal residence of the borrower, and eligible borrowers may not own a second home;
3. Demonstrate a good payment record prior to the event that produced the reduction of income.
HUD will announce additional details, including the targeted communities and other program specifics when the program is officially launched in the coming weeks.
HAMP'D
The only way through the foreclosure crisis was some sort of principal modification program. Judicial bankruptcy would have made the most sense, which is presumably why it didn't happen. Absent principal modification, the forgotten foreclosure crisis, and all of its associated impacts, will be with us for some time.
What To Do About The Fed
The organization that rules the world is failing to meet either of its mandated goals, and doesn't seem to care too much.
Maybe they're idiots. Maybe they're sociopaths who like the thought of mass widespread unemployment. I don't know, I can't read minds.
Maybe they're idiots. Maybe they're sociopaths who like the thought of mass widespread unemployment. I don't know, I can't read minds.
Links
Digby reposts some helpful hints from Bill in Portland, Maine. (Heading there on Friday!)
Useful during the election season, and at those Labor Day cookouts (as we say in Maine.)
Useful during the election season, and at those Labor Day cookouts (as we say in Maine.)
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
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