Saturday, January 23, 2010
Times Change
It's a bit hard for me to comprehend, as a license was the key to freedom when I grew up in the burbs.
Some of this is due to states making the permit/initial license a bit more restrictive.
Federal data released Friday underscore a striking national shift: 30.7 percent of 16-year-olds got their licenses in 2008, compared with 44.7 percent in 1988. The downtrend is even sharper in Virginia and Maryland, state figures show. Numbers from the District, which go back to 2003, show a decline in the past two years.
"Driving is real important to a lot of the kids in the culture, but it is not the central focus like it was 25 years ago," said Tom Pecoraro, owner of I Drive Smart, a Washington area drivers education program, who said plenty of his students are older teens. "They have so many other things to do now," he said, and, with years of being shuttled to sports, lessons and play dates, "kids are used to being driven."
Some of this is due to states making the permit/initial license a bit more restrictive.
I'm still trying
to figure out why we don't have a health care reform bill sitting on President Obama's desk. The House wants a bill. The Senate says they want a bill. President Obama surely wants a decent bill as it will be a major part of his legacy. The majority of Americans, who voted for President Obama, want a bill. What's holding it up.
I Doubt He Wants The Job
But, more than that, Paul Krugman is practically a communist so it would never happen.
That's a joke, of course. I'm so old I can remember when Krugman was a pretty standard "sensible centrist." I don't think his views have changed all that much on things, though I'd say he's grown more skeptical about conservative arguments and largely ceased swatting flies to the left of him. But the center, as defined by Villagers, has shifted so far to the right in the past few decades...
That's a joke, of course. I'm so old I can remember when Krugman was a pretty standard "sensible centrist." I don't think his views have changed all that much on things, though I'd say he's grown more skeptical about conservative arguments and largely ceased swatting flies to the left of him. But the center, as defined by Villagers, has shifted so far to the right in the past few decades...
We Could Do Better
Indeed.
And, aside from Ben specifically, as I wrote before it's time for Democrats to stop filling important positions with GOP Daddies.
And, aside from Ben specifically, as I wrote before it's time for Democrats to stop filling important positions with GOP Daddies.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Fighting
According to Obama, in his speech today, he won't stop fighting for us.
Fighting's good. Winning's better. Talking about fighting, not so good.
Fighting's good. Winning's better. Talking about fighting, not so good.
Timmeh, Larry, And Ben
There is growing Senate opposition to Bernanke, with even Reid being noncommital about support. I don't think it's the case, as Andrea Mitchell said earlier, that Bernanke is a "scapegoat," but Senate sources (sometimes I have them!) do tell me that growing opposition does reflect growing discontent with the Obama economic team generally.
Unemployment is at 10%. The foreclosure crisis is ongoing. There should be discontent.
Unemployment is at 10%. The foreclosure crisis is ongoing. There should be discontent.
Better Ways
Obviously I'm not against covering the entire country with SUPERTRAINS, but realistically a lot of lower density suburban areas are as currently put together just not places where it's realistic to add a comprehensive mass transit system. Better to push for better (denser) land use around existing transit lines, create and improve affordable housing near stations, and find ways to encourage employers to locate in transit accessible areas.
CRE Hell
That particular time bomb hasn't quite exploded, and when it does let's hope it doesn't take down the life insurance industry.
Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. life insurers, a group led by MetLife Inc. and Prudential Financial Inc., may face $15 billion in additional commercial real estate losses, most of which will be recognized in the next two years, Fitch Ratings said.
Helicopter Ben
Even if you think he's awesome and brilliant, based solely on the simple "occasionally people in leadership positions should be accountable for what happens on their watch" principle, it was completely ridiculous that Obama renominated him. Hopefully he does go down. Perhaps we could also start appointing actual liberals to some of these positions (top finance, military, law enforcement, intelligence) that seem to be earmarked for GOP Daddies.
But, more than that, Bernanke sucks. He presided over this disaster, did nothing to prevent it, and now thinks minuscule inflation is a bigger concern than jobs, and gutting social security is more important than increasing tax revenues by helping people to get employed.
Don't let the door hit you, wanker.
But, more than that, Bernanke sucks. He presided over this disaster, did nothing to prevent it, and now thinks minuscule inflation is a bigger concern than jobs, and gutting social security is more important than increasing tax revenues by helping people to get employed.
Don't let the door hit you, wanker.
It's So Easy
As I wrote yesterday, I'm not going to get too excited about proposals until they look like they might actually pass. But on the politics, the amazing thing is how easy it is to "outpopulist" the Republicans because they're, you know, big corporation humpers at heart. The fact that the Dems have been failing to do what is basically effortless is bizarre.
POST-IT NOTES
Jan. 20 (Washington Post) -- FBI agents seeking telephone
records demanded information from phone companies in a variety of
"startling" and illicit methods, including e-mail and post-it
notes, in an "egregious breakdown" of safeguards and oversight,
the Justice Department's inspector general reported Wednesday.
records demanded information from phone companies in a variety of
"startling" and illicit methods, including e-mail and post-it
notes, in an "egregious breakdown" of safeguards and oversight,
the Justice Department's inspector general reported Wednesday.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Dreaming
It seems there's more opposition to Bernanke brewing in the Senate, though I don't know if any of those opposing him are willing to be a complete pain in the ass about it. You know, in the Senate you can simply oppose something or invoke your right to be a giant pain in the ass and completely gum up the works.
Too much to hope that Ben, Timmeh, and Larry will be shown the door...
Too much to hope that Ben, Timmeh, and Larry will be shown the door...
Air America Is Dead
Not really surprised, given their business and programming decisions. Still it was, when it started, a bit of hopefulness at a time when there wasn't much. I used to have fun doing Sam and Janeane's show weekly, even back when I was anonymous.
Oh well.
Oh well.
Bankster Reform
For rather obvious reasons I can't get too excited about proposals until they actually pass, but at least Obama is moving in the right direction.
Heckuva job, Larry.
Heckuva job, Larry.
People Hate Parking Garages
More generally, people don't like parking without a clear line of sight to their destination especially if they're in unfamiliar territory. So, yes, available spaces on the top floors of parking garages aren't thought to be "available parking."
(via streetsblog)
(via streetsblog)
Is Anyone Trying?
All local newspapers seem to devote a lot of their print space to national issues, largely duplicating the same coverage you can get anywhere. I've definitely had reporters tell me there's just no market for local coverage. No one wants to read about zoning board meetings. But, you know, I want to read about zoning board meetings! To do so I generally have to read local bulletin boards because the press isn't covering them.
Obviously it isn't just about zoning board meetings, but the point is that I don't see a lot of effort to improve coverage of local news. Maybe there is no business model there, but who is even trying?
Obviously it isn't just about zoning board meetings, but the point is that I don't see a lot of effort to improve coverage of local news. Maybe there is no business model there, but who is even trying?
Heckuva Job
I'm reasonably sure Obama and (some in) the administration wanted HAMP to work, though I'm not sure why they thought it would.
"More troubling, more than 70 percent of modifications result in an increase in the principal amount owed," according to the report by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, a collection of 12 state attorneys general and three state banking supervisors (underlined in the original). This occurs because modification programs typically allow for mortgage companies to tack on delinquent amounts and any fees incurred by servicing to the mortgage principal. The Obama administration's signature effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program, allows for this, too.
This occurs despite estimates that at least one in four homeowners currently owe more on their home than it's worth. Loan modification programs thus put these homeowners further "underwater." Less than 10 percent of loan modifications through October of last year involved significant cuts to principal.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Geography Of Poverty
Suburban poverty will, I think, create some interesting challenges. Social services that serve poor people and mass transit tend to be concentrated in urban areas for various reasons. It's difficult to afford an insured automobile, or multiple ones per household, if your household is below the poverty line.
I Suppose They Could Still Surprise Us
Since he took office, the bar I basically set for Obama was whether or not he'd succeed in passing a health care bill with something resembling a public option. As they did with the campaign, they've governed with a kind of "trust us we know what we're doing" approach which doesn't really give outside activists much to do. And that's fine, if not my preferred way of doing things, as long as it achieves its goals.
Going forward, I suppose there's some chance they don't run and hide but instead get convinced that they'd better give out some popular goodies soon.
We'll see.
Going forward, I suppose there's some chance they don't run and hide but instead get convinced that they'd better give out some popular goodies soon.
We'll see.
Shorter Dems
With large majorities in the House and the Senate, and control of the executive branch, we are utterly powerless to do anything.
I'm starting to think these people have no idea what they're doing.
I'm starting to think these people have no idea what they're doing.
Good Luck With That
While often journalists rail against imagined bloggers who believe that all news content on the web should be free, most of us just think charging for content is probably just an unworkable business model for everything but certain niche publications. I am quite happy to be wrong about that, but it's always been advertisers, not readers, who have paid the bills...
But, good luck to the New York Times! I doubt it's a good idea, but...maybe not!
But, good luck to the New York Times! I doubt it's a good idea, but...maybe not!
Keep It Simple
Medicare buy-in would be very popular and relatively simple.
Which is, of course, why it won't happen.
Which is, of course, why it won't happen.
Car Free And Loving it
One thing I don't think most urban policymakers have ever really come to terms with is the fact that appealing modern cities and cars really are enemies. I don't mean that cities need to be entirely car free, of course. Don't worry, the cars we will always have with us. But the population density needed to support good urban living isn't supportable if every person comes with a car attached to them. It just doesn't work. People need more mobility than walking allows, which is why a comprehensive mass transit system and an affordable car sharing program are necessary, but one-car-per-driving-age-person and pleasant walkable communities just cannot go together.
I'm specifically talking about urban living. Enjoy your suburban and rural communities if that's what you like!
I'm specifically talking about urban living. Enjoy your suburban and rural communities if that's what you like!
Unlike The Deficit
Which is just an abstract issue for people, jobs are, you know, a little more concrete. "Deficit hawks" can vote for tax cuts and wars perpetually because nobody really cares about the deficit and Fred Hiatt will always remain impressed with how serious they are. Jobs, however, matter to people.
And, yes, Congress and the administration could, if they wanted to, do a lot about the jobs situation. I don't think they're likely to, however, and therefore November's going to be a lot of fun.
And, yes, Congress and the administration could, if they wanted to, do a lot about the jobs situation. I don't think they're likely to, however, and therefore November's going to be a lot of fun.
Clock Ticks
Like Krugman, I'm puzzled by the administration's lack of initiative about trying to do something about jobs. When the last jobs report came out it seemed there was, yet again, a brief sense of urgency about the problem and then... crickets.
They Control Everything
And while the absurdities of the Senate don't always make it easy, the fact is they're still in charge, and hiding behind Joe Lieberman's wankery isn't going to change that.
Swing/"independent" voters will vote for Democrats on the hope that they'll deliver some goodies to them, believing that usually the Dems give the goodies to undeserving brown-hued people. Obama's been in office for a year. Where are the goodies?
Swing/"independent" voters will vote for Democrats on the hope that they'll deliver some goodies to them, believing that usually the Dems give the goodies to undeserving brown-hued people. Obama's been in office for a year. Where are the goodies?
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Noted
Chris Matthews (rough quote): We feel a lot better about what we're doing in Haiti than we do fighting these wars.
What's This Country Coming To
When rich white guys can't make racist jokes and expect everyone to laugh at them.
I admit I'm always a bit surprised about how saddened some people are by this.
I admit I'm always a bit surprised about how saddened some people are by this.
Stupid
What digby said, twice.
Two posts. The narrative is getting set. Regardless of who wins in MA. It is not The Economy Stupid. It is Dems in disarray, and deficits.
America thrived with 90 percent marginal rates in the top bracket.
Two posts. The narrative is getting set. Regardless of who wins in MA. It is not The Economy Stupid. It is Dems in disarray, and deficits.
America thrived with 90 percent marginal rates in the top bracket.
Big Turnout
is good for Democrats. Maybe the villagers did us a favor by hyping the horse race aspects of the MA election. I'm sure it was by accident.
Lessons
Josh sez:
Is that clear? I mean, I've never really gotten the impression that was actually the lesson learned in Washington, whatever the truth.
Anyway, a few months ago I would've thought the idea of a Republican resurgence in 2010 was absurd, and now I don't.
Unemployment is at 10%. Still.
And the lesson of 1994 is clear: the folks who killed health care in 1994 didn't gain any benefit from it. They were the ones who got slaughtered in November.
Is that clear? I mean, I've never really gotten the impression that was actually the lesson learned in Washington, whatever the truth.
Anyway, a few months ago I would've thought the idea of a Republican resurgence in 2010 was absurd, and now I don't.
Unemployment is at 10%. Still.
Legalizing Ultimate Fighting
Whatever it takes, I guess.
ALBANY — Gov. David A. Paterson proposed what would be the largest cut to school aid in more than two decades and nearly $1 billion in new or increased taxes and fees as he unveiled his budget on Tuesday, a plan that is sure to touch off fierce opposition in the Legislature.
Scouring for new sources of tax revenue amid a fiscal crisis, the governor is also proposing to legalize ultimate fighting, allow the sale of wine in grocery stores, tax cigarette sales on Indian reservations and deploy speed-enforcement cameras in highway work zones.
Back In The Saddle
In case you missed the exciting news, I'm home. Thanks to everyone who helped keep this place running in various ways while I was gone (and as always thanks to many of those same people who help keep it running while I'm here). Apologies for not being a bit more organized for my absence before my trip. I had grand plans, but then haloscan killed itself and I spent a bunch of time trying out various commenting platforms to see what might hold up best while I was away. Not thrilled with the current setup, but it'll work well enough until Eschaton 2.0 premiers sometime in late 2017.
Our Dumb Discourse
Just a couple of paragraphs apart.
So his rationale for running has nothing to do with issues, but it's about issues. Harold Ford is so awesome.
The interview - granted under the condition that the questions be limited to his rationale for running, and not issues - comes at the end of a rocky first week of buzz surrounding his potential candidacy.
...
"This race isn't about feet, it's about issues," he said of ribbing he has taken on the web and elsewhere of his regular pedicures.
So his rationale for running has nothing to do with issues, but it's about issues. Harold Ford is so awesome.
Dud
I'd really like it if reporters pressed administration people on just what they think went wrong with the HAMP program. I think they truly believed, when they proposed it, that it would work for a lot more borrowers than it did. They certainly announced it with great fanfare. I suspect they'd just say the economy is worse than they expected, but when the program was announced plenty of people pointed out why it wasn't very likely to work well.
I don't think the economy can turn around until the foreclosure crisis is over. Damaged abandoned properties are destroying neighborhoods. This has been a big failure.
I don't think the economy can turn around until the foreclosure crisis is over. Damaged abandoned properties are destroying neighborhoods. This has been a big failure.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
blah blah blah...
The FBI illegally collected more than 2,000 U.S. telephone call records between 2002 and 2006 by invoking terrorism emergencies that did not exist or simply persuading phone companies to provide records, according to internal bureau memos and interviews. FBI officials issued approvals after the fact to justify their actions.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Run Away
Yes, a Coakley loss would ensure that Dems double down on their craven capitulation.
Because it always works so well.
Because it always works so well.
Win Or Lose
It's excellent news for Republicans.
Anyone remember the name of that weirdo from upstate New York who was going to win but didn't? Me neither.
Anyone remember the name of that weirdo from upstate New York who was going to win but didn't? Me neither.
Deep Thought
Whatever happens in the Mass. Senate race will confirm what I've been saying all along.
Wrong
The HAMP program has mostly been a failure, and people are just walking away.
I've talked to quite a few people about just why it hasn't made sense for the various stakeholders to be more open to principal modification. I really don't think anyone quite has the definitive answer. Roughly it seems that the incentives for the various people/institutions involved are just completely screwed up. Investors don't want to have to revalue their portfolios, servicers benefit from extending the process because of fees they can charge, etc.
There was never going to be a perfect program, but bankruptcy cramdown was always the best hope to achieve sensible principal modification through an established process.
By the way, the foreclosure crisis? Not even close to being over.
Desperate homeowners scrambling to get a loan modification through federal foreclosure relief programs are beginning to shun the offer, opting for a strictly business approach to the dilemma — walking away.
Because the majority of modifications don't reduce the principal payment on loans made during the overpriced boom years, underwater mortgages could still be drowning 10 years out.
The better option for those borrowers, some say, is to take the hit now and attempt a short sale, deed in lieu, or even allow their home to go into foreclosure.
I've talked to quite a few people about just why it hasn't made sense for the various stakeholders to be more open to principal modification. I really don't think anyone quite has the definitive answer. Roughly it seems that the incentives for the various people/institutions involved are just completely screwed up. Investors don't want to have to revalue their portfolios, servicers benefit from extending the process because of fees they can charge, etc.
There was never going to be a perfect program, but bankruptcy cramdown was always the best hope to achieve sensible principal modification through an established process.
By the way, the foreclosure crisis? Not even close to being over.
If Only They'd Listened To Me
It's true that any principal modification program will have its problems, which is way principal modification through the bankruptcy system was always the best way to go. It isn't a pain free process and it won't reward bad behavior, but it also implicitly recognizes both parties are somewhat to blame (lender and borrower) and can modify debt levels accordingly.
This, of course, was a grand idea a couple of years ago. Oh well.
This, of course, was a grand idea a couple of years ago. Oh well.
Wrong
A point many people make, somewhat in defense of the Obama administration, is that they don't run everything, they must deal with Congress, they have to worry about politics, etc. All of this is true. But that isn't a magical "not our fault" card to be played every time things don't go perfectly. The economic stimulus, at least, is one clear place where they were wrong, not just on the politics or what was possible, but wrong about what was needed and wrong about how bad unemployment was going to get. Krugman.
Why was the stimulus underpowered? A number of economists (myself included) called for a stimulus substantially bigger than the one the administration ended up proposing. According to The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza, however, in December 2008 Mr. Obama’s top economic and political advisers concluded that a bigger stimulus was neither economically necessary nor politically feasible.
Their political judgment may or may not have been correct; their economic judgment obviously wasn’t. Whatever led to this misjudgment, however, it wasn’t failure to focus on the issue: in late 2008 and early 2009 the Obama team was focused on little else. The administration wasn’t distracted; it was just wrong.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Really Bad Form
These kinds of press leaks really just make everyone involved look like petty idiots.
It's Always Excellent News For Republicans
I have no idea what will happen in the Mass. Senate race, and obviously a Dem loss would be a big blow for the Dems, but apparently even if Coakley wins it's a big loss for the Dems. Go figure.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Presidents Clinton and W.
This Week has Presidents Clinton and W. You also don't want to miss George's tearjerker of a farewell.
Face the Nation has Presidents Clinton and W.
Very diverse lineup.
This Week has Presidents Clinton and W. You also don't want to miss George's tearjerker of a farewell.
Face the Nation has Presidents Clinton and W.
Very diverse lineup.
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