Saturday, July 10, 2010

More Thread

You talk too much.

Saturday Night

Have a Youtube.




Satanic Panic In The Attic

Writing This From Thirty Floors Up

It's the weekend and I've got nothing new to say, so I might as well repeat myself a bit. Not that I don't do that frequently anyway.

When the suburbanites and the urbanites go at it on the internets, I'm always struck by how often many of the former equate "living in city" with "living in a condo in skyscraper." Only a tiny bit of this urban hellhole is above 3 floors, and most (though not all of course) of the buildings that are taller are offices or hotels.

Afternoon Thread

image by Nataraj Metz

Rainy day here in the urban hellhole. Skipped the farmer's market. Went to the Italian Market instead to procure ingredients for tomorrow's paella.

No I have nothing to say. Talk amongst yourselves.

It's Still A Small Amount Of Money

But the change in thinking at the DOT is an improvement. During the Bush years, urban transit projects without significant suburban components were basically denied cash from the feds.

July 2010 Already

Perhaps it doesn't matter for any reason other than my desire to satisfy my curiosity, but I really would like to know what the administration would have, with hindsight, done differently.

Obviously they weren't in charge 30 months ago, but they were 18 months ago. Here we are 18 months later with 9.5% unemployment.

Miserable Failures

The press spent years lauding Alan Greenspan. This was a mistake, but it demonstrated that they're capable of expressing opinions about those who run the Federal Reserve. They failed, and they continue to fail. This should be known.

If You're Going To Spend All That Money...

Real estate in Manhattan is expensive. Building parking garages for a city where most people don't have cars is expensive.

As many commenters note, the sensible thing would be to... offer free or cheap delivery instead.

Morning Thread

Friday, July 09, 2010

Overnight

Rock on.

Friday Evening Thread

The weekend has arrived for this sucky blogger. Talk amongst yourselves, as you always do.

And Another

Ideal Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD

And The FDIC Reaches For Its Spoon

To gobble up Bay National Bank, Baltimore, MD

Jus' Folks

Villagers are so absurd.

So What If They Make $100,000?

One tremendous problem we have in this country is that too many who run in whitecollarish circles get absolutely enraged at the idea that some people working in blue collar or service industry jobs might actually be making a few bucks. It doesn't matter how hard those jobs are, that the jobs might actually require a high level of skills, or how many years people have been in those jobs, they're somehow seen as lesser jobs.

I'm reminded of when my local transit authority went on strike, and people were absolutely livid that some lowly bus drivers earned $50K per year. My response, of course, was to suggest that if you think earning $50K per a year in a job with limited career advancement opportunities, driving a goddamn bus down narrow Philadelphia streets 40 hours a week sounds like an excellent job opportunity, then go become a bus driver.

Better Messaging

Baby steps.
And we made that kind of decision all across America last year. And we were guided by a simple idea: Government doesn’t have all the answers. Ultimately, government doesn’t create all the jobs. Government can’t guarantee growth by itself. But what government can do is lay the foundation for small businesses to expand and to thrive, for entrepreneurs to open up shop and test out new products, for workers to get the training that they need, and for families to achieve some measure of economic security. And that role is especially important in tough economic times.

Stepping On Their Own Message

I suppose this is grumpy blogging day, but I'm still quite perturbed by the administration rolling out their government doesn't create jobs line. Stimulus arguments aside, there is obviously a very big and important role for the government in our economy. We can and do argue about the proper role of government in the economy, but whether we build highways with a federal highway building workforce, or build highways by contracting out to independent contractors, the government is still paying the bill and, yes, creating jobs, and absent the government those highways aren't going to be built and those jobs aren't going to be there.

But aside from it just being stupid, they're completely stepping on their own message. I don't know how we're all supposed to celebrate Recovery Summer, glorifying all of the jobs the government is creating, if the government doesn't create any jobs.

Inflection Points

I remember last year trying to point out to people that "getting bad less fast" was not the same as "getting better." Sure if you were optimistic it was a signal that things might turn around in the future, but it wasn't actually proof of that.


People make possibly valid excuses for the administration for a variety of things, but I'll point to one thing they completely and utterly screwed up which wasn't due to the need to placate President Snowe or whoever - the HAMP program. At best it did nothing for people, and frequently it made things worse as banks strung them along and then screwed them in the end.

Wanker of the Day

Joshua Green.

$7 Million To See A Show

Obviously ticket prices are too high and there plenty of smaller venue playing good acts that you can see for $10-$20.

I'd have to really love a band to go to an arena show at this point, and wouldn't pay much money for the experience.

Things That Will Never Happen

A bit tired of the whole "well, maybe we can raise the retirement a bit as long as we ease up on disability eligibility" line because that second part isn't ever going to happen.

It's Impossible To Shovel Money Out Of The Door Fast Enough

Except there are so many obvious things that need to be done.
A 30-inch water main burst this morning, flooding streets and surrounding cars in a North Philadelphia neighborhood near the Temple University campus for more than an hour.

Several buildings were evacuated in the area of the break on the 1800 block of North Ninth Street, a mostly industrial area east of Temple's campus

I harp on water systems because this kind of work is needed in so many places.

Nasty, Brutish, But Not Too Long

It's part and parcel with them thinking that the financial crisis was merely a liquidity crisis. Essentially the system was functioning, except there was a hiccup. Fix the hiccup and on we go.

So we saved the banksters, but homeowners are fucked and so are workers.

Happy recovery summer!

Overnight

enjoy

Thursday, July 08, 2010

We're All Subprime Now And Forever

It's a bit hard to comprehend that this housing/foreclosure crisis stuff has been going on for...fucking years already. As is so often the case, the maintstream media got it completely wrong initially, painting it as a "subprime" crisis due to bad behavior by unworthy brown people.


Whether it is their residence, a second home or a house bought as an investment, the rich have stopped paying the mortgage at a rate that greatly exceeds the rest of the population.

More than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars is seriously delinquent, according to data compiled for The New York Times by the real estate analytics firm CoreLogic.

By contrast, homeowners with less lavish housing are much more likely to keep writing checks to their lender. About one in 12 mortgages below the million-dollar mark is delinquent.

True Story

My fiance and I are in the process of trading in one delightful urban hellhole for another, and this past weekend all the driving earned me a cracked windshield on my pickup truck. A couple days ago I called a local dealer (yeah I know, dealer) in my former city, where the truck was but I wasn't, and got an estimate for replacing the windshield at $250-$300. Fair enough; they hire a glass contractor to do it for $150 and charge me for the privilege of their customer service.

So imagine my surprise when my fiance dropped it off and called me to say that they gave her an estimate of $450-$500. Same car. Same windshield. 24 hours apart. Now, I'm not quick to assume bad faith or nefarious motive, but I'm pretty damn sure some pig in the service department thinks it's ok to try to rip off women.

When I called this morning to speak with the manager the woman who handled my call seemed genuinely appalled that this was going on where she worked. I'm sure it made her feel good to know what at least one of her coworkers thinks of women. Speaking to the manager only furthered my suspicions. The repair had already been done, and the bill had come to about $425 total, but there was little attempt on his end to justify the price. As soon as I said I wanted to see the invoice from the glass contractor he told me he would see what he could do, and five minutes later he called me back to say he had "fixed the problem with my bill," with a state inspection thrown in to sweeten the deal.

It's an indication of my blindness to my privilege that this episode shocked me. It seemed like an antiquated cliche, but I guess it's really not rare at all. The fact that the manager seemed more sheepish about being caught than surprised at the behavior of his employees is enough to make me realize how common the practice must be. And the really crazy/depressing thing is that in a global context getting ripped off by mechanics is pretty far down on the list of pressing issues women face.

Thursday Night Thread

enjoy

Helicopter Drop

I'm not especially convinced that a commitment to a moderately higher target inflation would really do the trick. It would be better than nothing, but there's no way the Fed will commit to high enough inflation to lower the real interest rate significantly.

At this point, the Fed should do the act which gave Helicopter Ben his nickname, and shower free money on all of us. They won't do that either, both because they're allergic to invisible inflation and because some of that money might flow into the nasty hands of the great wretched masses. But it just might work!

Evening Thread

enjoy

Virginia Is For Lovers

And most of them aren't married anymore.

I Doubt Sam And John Will Be Impressed

But good news for now.
BOSTON -- A U.S. judge in Boston has ruled that a federal gay marriage ban is unconstitutional because it interferes with the right of a state to define marriage.

The Great Shirk

Someone once sent me an email exchange they had once with (Econ Nobel Prize Winner) Ed Prescott which was more than a little nutty. As is this:

3. Ed Prescott did pathbreaking work in the economics profession, and his Nobel prize is well-deserved. His work with Finn Kydland made macroeonomists more quantitatively disciplined, and serves as a benchmark for most of the work done in macro in the last 30 years, including New Keynesian economics, models with financial frictions, and incomplete markets models. However, I doubt that there were any people in the room yesterday who took Ed seriously. Ed's key points were: 1. Monetary policy does not matter. 2. Financial factors are the symptoms, not the causes, of the recent downturn. 3. The recession was due to an Obama shock, i.e. labor supply fell because US workers anticipate higher future taxes.

Chart of the Day

From the Job Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan, January 10, 2009.

Government Cannot Create Jobs

Back on Stimulus Anniversary day, Jared Bernstein expressed some discontent with the degree to which liberal media folks were selling the stimulus. The administration does not make it easy to do so.

Happy recovery summer!

As Nasty As We Want to Be

It's a bit weird remembering when 2 Live Crew, and record retailers, were being arrested over their material.

Strange times.

Through 2011

The IMF might be wrong, of course, but they're predicting 9%+ unemployment until the end of 2011.  If I had suggested such a prolonged period of unemployment at the end of  2008, people would have thought I was a nutter.  If anyone actually believed me they would have considered it to be economic armageddon.  Now it's just the new normal.

It's worth pointing out that in January 2009 the administration thought that without any stimulus unemployment would go back down to 7% by the end of 2011. This was not thought to be good enough, and that's why we had the stimulus.

And where were we just about 1 year ago today?


And what do these models say today? They are forecasting that the recession will end in the next few months. Administration officials aren’t quite so specific, but they are in a similar place.

Christina Romer, a senior Obama economist, argues that businesses that have spent the last few months drawing down their warehouse inventories will eventually need to rebuild them. Lawrence Summers, the top economics adviser, says that many consumers who have been delaying the purchase of a new car will eventually take the plunge. The government, meanwhile, will be pumping out close to $30 billion in stimulus money every month for months to come.

A big headline across the front page of Monday’s Financial Times summed up the position: “Romer upbeat on economy.”

Unlikely To Help

Yes it is true that more action could come from the Fed, but I'm just not optimistic that Fed action can be effective.  While in theory there is a lot the Fed could do, in practice it's relying on our failed financial system to ultimately do the work.  And, as I said, it's a failed financial system.  What part of failed don't we understand?

Truly Depressing

DeLong:

I had expected that we economists would have to fight Democratic political advisors who would be pushing for policies that were bad in the long run but that gained votes in the short run. I had never expected to be fighting Democratic political advisors who are pushing policies that are:
  • bad in the long run.
  • bad in the short run.
  • lose votes too.

Thursday Is New Jobless Day

Still high.


nitial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 454,000 in the week ended July 3, the lowest level since early May, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to fall to 460,000 from the previously reported 472,000, which was revised up to 475,000 in Thursday's report.

Don't hear too much about green shoots anymore.

Take Off

Cathie from Canada compiles the G20 stories you didn't hear about. Would be nice also to have this sort of debate about the limits of federal power down here in the land of the free, also:
But beyond that, it seems to me that the abdication of provincial responsibility in announcing and interpreting the temporary law speaks to a broader phenomenon: the choice of governments, through both their actions and inactions, to give police gratuitous leeway in securing these kinds of international summits.
Wacky stuff. Crazy Canucks.

Wednesday, July 07, 2010

One More

Special request from Matt.



Continue rocking.

Giving Credit

Had lost where the alien pony came from, here it is.

You can buy that and more stuff here.

Artist's site.

Wanker of the Day

Phil Griffin.

Everything's Going To Be OK

Stock market went up today, so ignore all that crap I said recently about the economy being crappy. It's all good.

Have A Pony




Just for old time's sake.

Remember The Schloz

A reminder of how truly awful so many Bush administration appointees were.

The Lifestyles Of The Not Quite Rich Enough

NYT continues its series.

Deficit Hawks Don't Care About The Deficit

So I get an email announcing that Kerry's energy bill reduces the deficit by some rounding error over the next 10 years according to the CBO. It depressed me because it made me realize Kerry and his people actually think deficit hawks genuinely care about the deficit. More than that, this piece of information won't even stop them from claiming that the bill "costs too much" or whatever.

People may oppose the bill for a variety of reasons, including simply a desire for this Congress to achieve nothing, but caring about the deficit is not one of them no matter what they say.

Completely Confusing Mysteries

To many of our elites it is very confusing why businesses with excess capacity aren't investing.

Our elites is stoopid.

Missed Opportunities

The stretch of I-95 that runs through Philly and largely cuts the city off from the waterfront needs to be redone soon, and sadly it looks like they're not going to take the opportunity to do something different with it. Increasingly I lean towards "just knock them damn thing down," though I don't think there's any way that's a realistic option.

Fake Scandals

We're getting a small taste of what will happen if Republicans get subpoena power. Endless fake scandals will bubble up through the right wing puke funnel, promoted by Drudge, covered in a willfully ignorant way by the mainstream media, etc.

The Right's been off their game for awhile, but they're starting to come back a bit.

The Quiet Leafy Suburb

Something that has happened in recent decades is the development of a lot of places which are too dense but not dense enough, that is they become dense enough to have a lot of the downsides (such as extreme traffic congestion) of density, without being developed in such a way that the benefits of density (such as walkability) can be realized. Some places are more positioned than others to transition to a better state, with some tweaking of development codes, but some are likely to be stuck.

A few weeks ago I was driving around in burbs I remembered from when I was a teenager, only they weren't the same. This was... not an older suburb, but not a newer one either, probably a place which had its initial development boom in 60s-70s. The traffic was... incredible. Back when I was younger it was the archetypal quiet leafy suburb, but increased development in the area plus the fact that the area was increasingly a conduit to major highways without really having the roads to support such a role had really changed the place.

Class Barriers

The persistence of the unpaid internship in so many elite areas of life has done a lot to perpetuate class barriers and ensure that only the right sorts of folk obtain certain positions in society. Almost as if by design, really. Personally I was never aware of a whole range of opportunities potentially available to me at that age because it never occurred to me that taking an unpaid internship was a realistic thing to do. Because, you know, it wasn't.

The Fix Is In

Reading the tea leaves, I gather that trying to increase the social security retirement age is pretty much a given. Odd, really, that politicians don't realize that the phrase "raising the retirement age" causes spitting fits for everyone regardless of party affiliation.

Also, Charles Krauthammer Gets Excited When Brown People Die

But some filters really require neon disclaimers.

Capped

The gusher is still gushing, but the information flow is definitely capped.

Froomkin

Morning

Not gonna mention the heat. Not gonna mention the heat. Not gonna mention the heat...

Tuesday, July 06, 2010

plus ça change

No deep thoughts for the late night, just occasionally look back and marvel at how much things have changed and yet... how much they haven't.

Tuesday Night

enjoy

Apocalypse Now

I'm sure future historians will recognize THE TRUTH, that there are actually plenty of jobs and lots of lazy people, and will name this era The Great Shirk, or The Long Time Of Funemployment, or something similar. But meanwhile, people are still losing their homes.
Fifty-six percent of all home sales in Riverside County in the first three months of the year involved foreclosure or bank- owned properties, according to RealtyTrac, an online service that monitors distressed property.

Supply And Demand And Zombies

Have not read, but did read some of it in progress over at the blog.

Zombie Economics: How Dead Ideas Still Walk among Us

US Public Health Spending

A point which is not made often enough, though I have made it, is that not only does the US spend a stupid amount of money in total on health care, we also beat a lot of countries in the amount of public money spent on health care (bottom graph).

Not sure we get a lot for that money, but we spend it.

Plan B

The administration is not big on Plan B, and while they occasionally admit error they seem to do it without actually changing direction.

I think they genuinely believed the economy was turning around this winter despite the fact that signs of that were paltry at best.

Job Fair In A Box

This sounds like an especially bad idea. People who show up to town meetings because they're concerned about jobs are going to be the people who, you know, don't have any goddamn jobs.

Afternoon Thread

enjoy

False Choices

I generally don't bother to engage Kotkin, but there is no stark choice between suburban and urban* and urban living does not equal condo in a skyscraper. More than that, there are a variety of preferences out there and it's dumb to read polls on issues like this in the way he does. There is no one way.


Anyway, for the billionth time, the urban hellhole revolution I promote does involve improving certain elements of infrastructure and it also involves getting rid of the creeping suburbanization policies which make urban hellholes difficult to build even in urban hellholes, but for all of you suburb lovers it just involves reducing some of the worst elements of recent suburban design by removing policies which mandate those elements. Nice, walkable, if still largely car-centric, neighborhoods with good transit links are desirable and command a premium in many areas, and they're still suburbia. You can keep your car, and your kids can walk to the playground and when they get older take the train to the urban hellhole where they can get up to no good as is expected.

*Yes, DWD, I know there are rural places too, but the land use, transportation, and zoning issues aren't especially interesting or complicated in places with lots of empty space.

Wankers of the Day

The Today Show.

Eschaton Assignment Desk

Perhaps some enterprising reporter could look into the case of the missing Social Security Trustees report.

Make Some Noise

One of the mysteries to me is why state lawmakers with budget and unemployment problems aren't putting more pressure on federal officeholders to do more. I guess the answer is that they just don't have any real influence over them.

Remember That Foreclosure Crisis, A Lovely Thing Of The Past

Actually not a thing of the past. People withhout jobs or unemployment benefits can't pay their mortgages.

As Philadelphia economist Kevin Gillen sees it, "The recession that started with the bursting of the housing bubble has come full circle.

"Whereas housing led us into the recession, the recession is now leading housing."



The big myth is the crisis was "averted" because the financial system was "saved." The reality is that they saved the banksters, but left the unemployment and foreclosures crises in place.

Eliminating Saturday Mail

No strong opinion, just throwing it out there for discussion.

Truly Depressing

Krgthulu.

I was on Good Morning America this not-so-good morning, doing what I could. But I was struck by something that George Stephanopoulos said: he claimed to have been speaking to an administration official who asserted that what we need to get businesses investing is for business to know that the government has stopped — presumably, that means no new spending, no new regulation, whatever.

I have no idea why any sentient people think this makes any sense. Businesses have no incentive to invest if they have slack demand and are producing under capacity. The only reason businesses would care what government was doing is if government borrowing was causing interest rates to spike which, you know, isn't happening. We're getting into underpants gnome territory.

I SEE THE FUTURE

Depressingly, the script for the autumn is already easy to see. Dems will lose seats, in part because it was inevitable and in part because the economy sucks completely. All the very serious people will tell us that Obama "overreached" and was this crazy marxist hippie, and if only he'd be "center right" like the country supposedly is then Dems would be popular again.

They should unveil a major new jobs plan like today, and then spend the next few months talking about it nonstop even if they can't pass it. I have no sense that there's anything like that in the pipeline.

heckuva job

Nobody could have predicted, yada yada...
In the 77 days since oil from the ruptured Deepwater Horizon began to gush into the Gulf of Mexico, BP has skimmed or burned about 60 percent of the amount it promised regulators it could remove in a single day.

Morning

It's now official. Reporters and photographers going pretty much anywhere BP doesn't want them can face criminal charges and/or fines of up to $40,000. While the big news corporations may be willing to bring it to court, this new rule will certainly stifle smaller, independent news outfits that don't have deep pockets. So much for that freedom of the press thingy.

Overnight?

Enjoy.

Monday, July 05, 2010

Too Much Fucking Perspective

Ringo Starr turns 70 this week.

Monday Night

enjoy

I Don't Know What They're Thinking

This level of unemployment is not ok. Maybe it's time for Jared Bernstein to resign and tell us.

Fresh Thread

Sadly the urban hellhole rooftop does not have good views of either of the main fireworks locations due to various buildings being in the way, but fortunately some people in the neighborhood were putting on a show of their own.

Straight Lines

The administration doesn't have super powers and I certainly don't fault them for things they truly did inherit, but either they believe they've done all that they can do or they don't. If there's more that they can do, whether or not President Snowe agrees, they should make the case. Loudly. Continuously.

Even More Depressing

Important people in the White House waste valuable time giving a shit what David Brooks thinks.

Times are tough for the president, too—which isn’t a coincidence. It sometimes seems as if Barack Obama and David Brooks share the same rational, unflappable DNA. Every Monday and Thursday, as his deadline approaches, Brooks gets a call from someone in the White House—“I’m not going to say who,” he says, which means Rahm—asking if tomorrow is going to be a good day.

In a world where there were archetypal Republicans who could be influenced by the archetypal David Brooks (as opposed to the real one, who really is a conservative hack with a fake reasonable face), this might make sense. But we do not live in a world with Republican senators who give a shit what David Brooks thinks.

Depressed

Our elites are populated with significant numbers of people who truly believe that the biggest problem this country faces is that poor people have it a bit too good.

It's all very depressing.

Confusion

None of these things trouble readers, they trouble reporters and editors who are upset that the well-established pecking order is being dismantled.

The Catfood Commission

I go back and forth on whether it's truly a danger. It's hard to imagine them coming up with something that would actually achieve their stated goals while getting Republican support. Still it's important to keep our collective eye on it, and remember that come December there may be a big fight...

Nothing Creates Confidence Like A Deep Recession

I guess it's comforting in some weird way that global elites are as awful as ours are.

Paying Bills

This is from a couple of days ago, but highlights what happens when a state stops paying its bills. People lose jobs, businesses go under, etc...

Morning

Hey, you kids, get offa my lawn!

Sunday, July 04, 2010

Evening Thread

Happy Hour Thread

One day we'll find the right strategy to complete the mission, just as soon as we figure out what the mission is.

Afternoon Thread

Enjoy.

The Liars Who Rule Us

Catfood commission takes to Parade:

Are you willing to recommend cuts to Social Security?

SIMPSON: We’re not going to cut Social Security—we’re going to stabilize it. None of the ideas that have been presented will affect anyone over age 58. But we’re going to make the system work. As it is, it can’t sustain itself.

So they're only going to cut it for people under 58. The system can sustain itself, if current projects are correct, by paying promised benefits out in full until 2036 and then could pay 76% of scheduled benefits after that.

The catfood commission is not about "saving social security," it's about stealing from a regressive tax so that rich people don't have to pay more in taxes.

huh?

Stagflation was low growth/high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously, not deflation.

Just Like Toothpaste

Heckuva job.

Just weeks ago, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour claimed that oil was not a big threat to the people of the Gulf Coast. Now, with oil hitting his state's beaches for the first time since the start of the BP spill, the Republican governor says his state isn't prepared for the spill and needs more help.

Don't know why so many politicians think that denying reality is a plan.

Sunday Bobbleheads

It must be wanker sweeps week!

Face the Nation has an EXCLUSIVE with Lindsey Graham.

This Week has an EXCLUSIVE with President John McCain.

Fox News Sunday has Joe Lieberman and Jim DeMint.


Dancing Dave's Meet the Press has Wimbledon.

Morning Again

Disc golf accomplished. Beautiful, cool morning.