Rock on.
Saturday, September 04, 2010
Your Liberal Media
People are kvetching about Jonathan Alter in comments. Since he plays a liberal on the teevee, I thought I'd bring this one back. From Nov. 2001.
In this autumn of anger, even a liberal can find his thoughts turning to... torture. OK, not cattle prods or rubber hoses, at least not here in the United States, but something to jump-start the stalled investigation of the greatest crime in American history. Right now, four key hijacking suspects aren't talking at all.
Couldn't we at least subject them to psychological torture, like tapes of dying rabbits or high-decibel rap? (The military has done that in Panama and elsewhere.) How about truth serum, administered with a mandatory IV? Or deportation to Saudi Arabia, land of beheadings? (As the frustrated FBI has been threatening.) Some people still argue that we needn't rethink any of our old assumptions about law enforcement, but they're hopelessly "Sept. 10"--living in a country that no longer exists.
Fail
They oppose everything, so maybe you could stand for something good?
Even the reporter gets it (linked to this earlier but missed this paragraph)
More money for Afghanistan, so it's all good.
...article now says no US money.
Even the reporter gets it (linked to this earlier but missed this paragraph)
Democrats say the list of stimulus ideas is mostly tax cuts because spending proposals would have no chance of Republican support. Yet Republicans have opposed Democrats’ tax cutting ideas as well, so some Democrats argue that the new ideas could further demoralize party liberals, who want new spending for job-creating public works.
More money for Afghanistan, so it's all good.
...article now says no US money.
Fail
I keep hoping for bad news in economic data, not because I want the reality to be worse than it is, but because only catastrophically bad news is seen as actually bad. Merely bad news is good news.
Here's An Idea
Maybe the message should be "we're going to do something about it" or "we'd do something about it if those bastards would let us."
And no more bank shot policies.
And no more bank shot policies.
Friday, September 03, 2010
Hire People To Do Stuff
When I look around my hilariously flawed urban hellhole, I see infinite things that could use some work, both public infrastructure and dealing with a lot of deteriorated housing stock. That's even before we get to sexy ideas like weatherization. The idea that we might have "structural unemployment" because there are a bunch of laid off construction workers is absurd. Those people have skills which can be put to good use on obvious productive activities. Someone just needs to write them a check and tell them what to do. The possibilities are, as I said, infinite.
9/11 Day Is Almost Here
Could someone get me an advance copy of the etiquette guide for 9/11 Day so I make sure I behave properly.
Yes They Can
Amazing what you can do for the "eye-popping" sum equivalent to about 3 months of Afghanistan.
Go Long
It's incredible to me that genius political strategists think that what voters really want are tepid and timid half measures.
Not Getting It
There's something about working in politics which starts making people think everything is about perception rather than reality. I think a full payroll tax holiday would be fine as long as it wasn't yet another excuse to try to destroy Social Security, but an employer only one would be truly awful on substance, impact, and message. More help for the overlords, no help for you!
But apparently the geniuses in charge think the problem is that "stimulus" and "bailout" have become scary bad words. The problem is that the economy sucks and people don't have any money.
But apparently the geniuses in charge think the problem is that "stimulus" and "bailout" have become scary bad words. The problem is that the economy sucks and people don't have any money.
Jobs
Unemployment at 9.6%, -54K total jobs, private sector +67K.
The private sector number will be seen as good news as it is better than expected but it still, you know, sucks.
The private sector number will be seen as good news as it is better than expected but it still, you know, sucks.
Thursday, September 02, 2010
OH
On my local transit system overheard convo between a couple of very young women (18+ but barely) about their job situations and that of their significant others and friends. Below minimum wage under the table wages are apparently common.
Virtually Speaking
Ian Welsh should be good on VS tonight - listen live now here or catch the archive stream later.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Signed,
Not Atrios
What's It All About Then
I've never really received a satisfactory answer to the question of just why we went to war in Iraq. I'm somewhat partial to the Grand Iranian Conspiracy theory, but little Tommy Friedman's reason is probably closer to the truth.
If my sucky blog has accomplished anything, it's bringing this to the attention of the world, thanks to a reader tip.
If my sucky blog has accomplished anything, it's bringing this to the attention of the world, thanks to a reader tip.
The Unbearable Burden Of Walking
Like Amanda, I find the aversion to walking to be interesting. It's familiar to me as I once lived that way, but I'm still a bit shocked when occasionally visitors to the urban hellhole perceive a 3 walk block to be a terrible burden. Over time my own view of what is a trivial distance to walk has grown, probably up from a 5 minute walk to a 15 minute one.
Because Parking Is Actually Most Of The Problem
Maybe These Idiots Don't Know What They're Doing
Labor Day is almost here. Time for some new product? Maybe?
Neo-Isolationism
Most Very Serious People still think that unless we're hanging around blowing shit up we aren't involved and it therefore isn't real.
Jaw Jaw
Even if there was little the Fed could have done policy wise, they could have, you know, said something.
Actually Greenspan did say something. This.
Actually Greenspan did say something. This.
American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.
Sure I Don't Drive Much These Days
But I think my lifetime record is 1 reckless driving (in lieu of speeding) ticket and one pulled over and let go for speeding because cop was nice. 20 tickets?
Farewell
Via Ezra Klein's Wonkbook email, Christina Romer's departing words. (It's a pdf, not a big one).
It's hard not to wish there were people doing a Richard Clark imitation, hair on fire, running around, trying anything. Instead, she is measured, prudent, and sorta wistful:
I don't think FDR would have called this liberalism. Not even sure Teddy would have called it progressive.
It's hard not to wish there were people doing a Richard Clark imitation, hair on fire, running around, trying anything. Instead, she is measured, prudent, and sorta wistful:
The result of these powerful headwinds and recent developments is that the United States still faces a substantial shortfall of aggregate demand. GDP by most estimates is still about 6 percent below trend. This shortfall in demand, rather than structural changes in the composition of our output or a mismatch between worker skills and jobs, is the fundamental cause of our continued high unemployment. Firms aren’t producing and hiring at normal levels simply because there isn’t demand for a normal level of output.
In the long run, the transition to a higher-saving, higher-investment, higher-export economy can restore demand, and hence output and employment to normal. But at the moment, as the recent data emphasize, that process is operating painfully slowly.
The pressing question, then, is what can be done to increase demand and bring unemployment down more quickly. Failing to do so would cause millions of workers to suffer unnecessarily. It also runs the risk of making high unemployment permanent as workers’ skills deteriorate with lack of use and their labor force attachment weakens as hope of another job fades.
Policymakers should certainly try innovative, low-cost policies. The President’s National Export Initiative is an excellent example. Given the fixed costs associated with exporting to a new market, small investments in information provision and commercial diplomacy could bring about a substantial increase in our exports. Likewise, responsible new trade agreements can help to open markets and increase trade in both the short run and over time.
Policymakers should also take sensible actions to increase confidence. While some in the business community talk about regulatory uncertainty as one reason they are cautious about hiring and investing, I suspect that uncertainty about future sales is a much larger determinant of firms’ actions. We can, however, do more to highlight and codify our pragmatic approach to regulation. As OIRA Administrator Cass Sunstein detailed in his recent Congressional testimony, the estimated net benefits (that is, the benefits minus the costs) of the Obama Administration’s regulatory actions during its first year far surpass those of the first year of the two previous administrations. For the health of the economy, we should continue and trumpet this prudent regulatory approach.
While we would all love to find the inexpensive magic bullet to our economic troubles, the truth is, it almost surely doesn’t exist. The only surefire ways for policymakers to substantially increase aggregate demand in the short run are for the government to spend more and tax less. In my view, we should be moving forward on both fronts.
I don't think FDR would have called this liberalism. Not even sure Teddy would have called it progressive.
Wednesday, September 01, 2010
Crazy People Mostly Motivated By The Crazy
I'm sure I've been guilty of it myself at some point in the past, but the now standard race to define every violent nutcase as a right wing nut or a left wing nut is a bit depressing. Mostly nutters are driven by the fact that they're nuts, whatever ideological motives they channel their nuttiness through.
That Time Already
Government jobs numbers come out Friday, private estimate says...-10K private sector jobs (estimate does not look at public sector jobs). Consensus forecast for all jobs is -120K, due in part to continued Census job losses. I'll take the under...
Getting It Right
As Krugman says, it isn't about "I told you so," it's about establishing the correct narrative about what happened which for bizarre reasons the administration isn't willing to do. The stimulus wasn't big enough. Had it been bigger things would at least be somewhat better.
Actually Michelle Plans To Put Crack Pipes On The Tree
Nice to see some things never change.
The most infamous of the Regnery titles is undoubtedly Gary Aldrich's Unlimited Access, which included such "revelations" as lesbian encounters in the White House's basement showers, Hillary Clinton ordering miniature crack pipes to hang on the White House Christmas tree, and the claim--backed by anonymous sources--that Clinton made frequent trips to the nearby Marriott to shack up with a mistress "who may be a celebrity." That last bit helped catapult Unlimited Access to the top of The New York Times's best-seller list, though Aldrich soon revealed to The New Yorker's Jane Mayer that the Marriott story was "not quite solid" and, indeed, was "hypothetical." But according to Aldrich, it was Regnery editor Richard Vigilante who had moved the Marriott bit out of the epilogue (where it had been presented as a "mock investigation") and into the middle of the book (where it was presented as an actual occurrence). Vigilante, Aldrich told Mayer, threatened not to publish the book if Aldrich didn't agree to the changes.
Let's Hope
The best part of Obama's speech was the suggestion that lighting trillions of dollars on fire in the service of killing random foreigners was perhaps not the best use of our limited resources.
But Roads Pay For Themselves!!
The most you can say (and this hasn't been true for some time either) is that the federal and some state highway systems are paid for by user fees (gas taxes, etc.), but basically the rest of the road system construction and repair costs are paid for with other tax money.
Standards
Oh What a Lovely War
It's easy to beat up on the prime movers, but sadly, in general, elites, including many liberal ones, in this country will never accept that they supported and advocated for a pointless war based on lies which led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and the upheaval of millions of lives. Heckuva job.
Also, Good Luck Getting Credit
Banks have long histories of avoiding certain neighborhoods, whether through explicit policy or just actual practice.
Echoes
Glenzilla reminds us that somebody certainly could have knowed what the US was getting itself into.
Even aside from dirty hippies, like ex-Marine weapons-inspector Scott Ritter, there was no shortage of voices of sanity.
But I guess that is just looking backwards, which the Village only does in order to say nobody could have known. Unfortunate, perhaps, but what can you do?
Anyway, the war is over now. The President said so.
Even aside from dirty hippies, like ex-Marine weapons-inspector Scott Ritter, there was no shortage of voices of sanity.
But I guess that is just looking backwards, which the Village only does in order to say nobody could have known. Unfortunate, perhaps, but what can you do?
Anyway, the war is over now. The President said so.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
The Wayback Machine
November 13, 2003.
(11-13) 04:00 PST Washington — 2003-11-13 04:00:00 PST Washington -- The Bush administration plans to support the creation of a reconstituted governing body in Iraq that will assume a large degree of sovereignty by next summer -- a move that could lead to a relinquishing of control by the U.S.-led occupation before the 2004 presidential election.
The decision was reached after two days of hastily organized talks at the White House with Paul Bremer, the U.S. governor in Iraq, in an attempt to accelerate the political transition -- one of two prerequisites, along with security, for the eventual American withdrawal from Iraq.
The Company They Keep
Alan Simpson really is the worst person in the world.
At least until Jeffrey Goldberg pops up again.
At least until Jeffrey Goldberg pops up again.
"Inappropriate Signal To Investors"
Some in the Fed seem to think that the Great Casino is the real economy.
By The Way I Plan To Vote
There's this weird chatter about how crazy it would be for mildly disgruntled democrats to stay home in November and not vote. I agree! Totally crazy! I'll vote for Sestak and Bob Brady, the former probably needs my vote and the latter doesn't. But GOTV concerns aren't about people like me, they're about numerous other people who don't always make a point of voting.
Why It's So Maddening
There's some truth to this counterintuitive take on Krgthulu, and it's the reason some of us our pulling our hair out. The solution to the economic problems we face are, if not perfectly simply in practice, pretty straightforward. That we've had people arguing otherwise, and even people notionally on the right side worrying about invisible bond vigilantes and arguing for a smaller stimulus than necessary just because, is maddening. So, yes, optimistic that problems are solvable. Pessimistic that they will be solved.
One True Christian
If I went around calling peoples' religions "evil" I'd probably get into a bit of trouble. Not that I'm important, of course, but the usual suspects would say I was bigoted against the faithful and whatnot.
Credit Where Credit Is Due File
Orrin Hatch.
Labor Day is almost here so I imagine the mosque "controversy" will begin to recede. What will next August's stupid fake controversy that gets 24/7 coverage be?
Labor Day is almost here so I imagine the mosque "controversy" will begin to recede. What will next August's stupid fake controversy that gets 24/7 coverage be?
I Have No Idea What We're Doing There
I at least understood that we stayed in Iraq so Very Serious People could feel better about themselves. Not an especially good reason, of course, but a reason at least.
Roadside bombings and attacks by militants in Afghanistan killed five U.S. soldiers Tuesday, raising the American death toll since this weekend to 19.
The number of American soldiers killed in August is now 55, a drop from the 66 who died in July, the deadliest month of combat for U.S. troops since fighting began in 2001.
Morning and Stuff
Not an economist, but I think Ruth has it about right. The financial system is like a house of cards that is teetering on the brink of collapse. Sooner or later all the assets held by the banks will have to be valued at market rates instead of the inflated values currently assigned to them. I suppose our betters are hoping that either the housing market will re-inflate or that they can spread the losses out over several years for a soft landing. Either way, it's not very comfortable knowing that we're so close to having the whole house collapse.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Externalities
I thought this was a decent if imperfect piece at GreenTechMedia today. If nothing else it highlights once again the point that energy from coal has significant negative externalities that are not reflected in its price, full stop. It's a very simple point, but apparently not simple enough for the brain trust that scribbles editorials in the WSJ. Whether they don't understand simple economic concepts or whether they dissemble to advance an agenda, or both, is up for debate I suppose.
WSJ editorial is full of crap. Dog bites man. Open thread.
WSJ editorial is full of crap. Dog bites man. Open thread.
Urban Hellhole Blogging
The more interesting than parking (impossible I know) bit of the earlier article about the Italian (aka 9th St.) Market is whether retail gentrification will alter the character of the place which, as I understand it, has from the beginning been a fairly low end market area catering to poor immigrants. There are some higher end specialty shops mixed in a bit, and the various butchers have good if not top quality meats, but overall it's more of a lower priced retail corridor. Locally, the demographics are a mix of older Italian- and African-American populations, along with yuppies, hipsters, and newer Mexican and Vietnamese immigrant populations.
Mandatory Parking
Oy.
Hopefully the information in the second paragraph is actually operative. It would be absurd to require any sort of parking on that parcel.* It would either make it prohibitively expensive to build (underground) or completely break up the flow (surface). None of the existing structures along the corridor have any parking. There are municipal lots and plenty of on street parking nearby. More importantly, people actually, you know, walk there.
*building is gone, and is now empty lot.
On Midwood Management, the New York developer who owns the Paesano's property on Christian Street, and who is purported to be interested in taking over more of the Market: "Midwood wants to open a mixed-use retail and condo space there at the [long-abandoned] Ice House space [at Ninth and Washington], yeah. But the city challenged them to build a parking lot underground as part of the deal, a project that'll cost them plenty. I don't think they're concerned with taking the Market over. They got their hands full."
(Midwood couldn't be reached for comment; DiCicco says Midwood is downsizing its vision due to the dip in the real estate market, and now plans an all-retail space, with no parking, that allows for housing atop if the housing market rebounds.)
Hopefully the information in the second paragraph is actually operative. It would be absurd to require any sort of parking on that parcel.* It would either make it prohibitively expensive to build (underground) or completely break up the flow (surface). None of the existing structures along the corridor have any parking. There are municipal lots and plenty of on street parking nearby. More importantly, people actually, you know, walk there.
*building is gone, and is now empty lot.
I Really Think So
I was also struck by the coverage of Japan this morning. For years everyone in econ-world mocked Japan and their poor policy responses to their economic problems, with a 'there's no way we would do that' attitude. Well now we're doing that, and much of econ-world thinks it's great.
Any Idea What They're Doing There
I really have no idea.
KABUL, Afghanistan - NATO says 7 US soldiers killed in 2 roadside bomb attacks in southern Afghanistan.
The Optimistic View
Not passing this along because I agree or disagree, I'm just fascinated by what's presented as the optimistic outcome.
So the good scenario - the worst is over - unemployment will drop all the way down to 9% by the end of 2011!!
In January 2009, the administration projected that unemployment would drop below 7% by the end of 2011, without any stimulus.
If Berner's right, the worst is over. He expects consumption to grow 2 to 2.5 percent annually, propelling a steady -- if unspectacular -- recovery. Indeed, consumption spending grew at a 2 percent annual rate in the second quarter. Berner forecasts unemployment to decline slowly to about 9 percent by year-end 2011.
The trouble with this analysis, as Berner admits, is that it presumes that most of the adjustment has already occurred. But what if worried Americans are only midway? In the past decade, they counted rising stock and home wealth as "saving," which rationalized high borrowing and spending. Now, the process may work in reverse. Since late 2007, lower home and stock values have shaved about $10 trillion from household wealth. If Americans tried to replace most of this through more annual saving, consumer spending would remain weak for years.
So the good scenario - the worst is over - unemployment will drop all the way down to 9% by the end of 2011!!
In January 2009, the administration projected that unemployment would drop below 7% by the end of 2011, without any stimulus.
Constrained
There is a lot the administration could have accomplished that the progressive base would have praised. Sometimes this would have entailed doing something, like DADT, that was expected and promised. Other times, this would have entailed taking stronger action in response to events, as with health care reform and job creation. So there is handwringing, excuses offered, and worse, on whose fault it is that liberals have not been overjoyed with the administration.
So what can Obama really do?
So what can Obama really do?
Sunday, August 29, 2010
On The More Optimistic Side
Perhaps the placing of this op-ed by Laura Tyson, "a member of President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board," signals a shift...
The Safe Way To Travel
I'm sure there are good reasons some parents might hesitate to bring their kids on mass transit, but concern for safety isn't one of them.
Or Maybe Because Of
Just thinking outside the box here.
Despite the presence of almost 150,000 foreign troops, violence across Afghanistan is at its worst since the Taliban were ousted by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in late 2001.
Oh Jeebus
Please find a new plan already.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration has not decided whether it should resurrect a popular tax credit for first-time homebuyers, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said on Sunday.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Meet the Press has Landrieu, Landrieu, and Brad Pitt.
Face the Nation has Joe Miller (R-AK), Kendrick Meek, President Barbour and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
This Week has Arne Duncan, the head of the AFT, and Jamie Oliver.
Document the atrocities!
Face the Nation has Joe Miller (R-AK), Kendrick Meek, President Barbour and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz.
This Week has Arne Duncan, the head of the AFT, and Jamie Oliver.
Document the atrocities!
Contempt
In his opening column, the new ombud at the NYTimes displays the newsroom's contempt for its readers--people are apparently either partisans or nitpickers--and, by extension, for the "scold, scourge" in "the principal's office" who ostensibly represents them.
Deep Questions of Our Time
In the long run, is the African American community likely to view Glenn Beck with the same reverence with which they regard Martin Luther King, Jr?
Only time will tell.
Only time will tell.
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