Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Big Dumb Houses
All good people have decided that there's something wrong with houses getting bigger, but I'm not actually sure why this is precisely.
I think it's easier to talk about why big lot sizes are a problem, but big houses?
Bonus question: define big house.
Almost Here
September 1st tomorrow, Labor Day on Monday...then the 14 months of the stupid season really begins.
Oh joy.
Links
Just not sure why, in most cases, this would be any sort of priority.
I mean, I don't have any problem running the inter-city rail system through the airports, but I can't see why it would be a priority worth spending much money on. If there's a rail line nearby when you're thinking of building an airport, or vice versa, sure spend a little extra to add a link, but I don't think it's a priority.
Other ideas for improving spending include coordinating highway, transit and railroad administrations so that they actually link up in a rational fashion — right now, the United States is the only industrialized country that doesn’t do this. A 2005 GAO report, for instance, found that “Most major U.S. airports have direct connections to local transit systems rather than to nationwide rail or bus systems.”
I mean, I don't have any problem running the inter-city rail system through the airports, but I can't see why it would be a priority worth spending much money on. If there's a rail line nearby when you're thinking of building an airport, or vice versa, sure spend a little extra to add a link, but I don't think it's a priority.
A Modest Proposal
Since conservatives claim to believe that the stimulus destroyed the economy, how about we have Stimulus II which only goes to states with Democratic governors. Everybody's happy!
The First Rule Of Industrial Policy
Is that everyone pretends we don't have industrial policy. Of course in practice we do have industrial policy. We may not have a Council On Industrial Policy, and an explicit plan to implement an Industrial Policy. Instead we spend our days complaining about the evil subsidies that other countries have made to their favored industry in the name of industrial policy. But we have various kinds of industrial policy. Some of it comes from people having a sense of how the world is supposed to work and implementing that as policy. Some of that comes from the various consequences of our ridiculously large military budget. Some of that comes from large incumbent industries having the ear of important senators. Sadly, these days, too much of our industrial policy leans towards industries that don't actually do anything. It's about health insurance and the financial industries, the skimmers and middlemen who do nothing but whose obscene profits must be protected at all costs.
That's A Long Time
Sadly, I'm sure many of the people involved understandably never really learn to stop worrying and love the fact that they get free rent for awhile, but at least they're extracting something from the banksters.
I'm sure some people are lazy and bad and irresponsible, but most people are victims of the failures of elites who run this country. Failures to stem corrupt bankster practices, failures to do the easy and obvious things to improve the economy.
As I said, I'm sure most people involved in the foreclosure process are probably not exactly blissed out by the whole experience, but I do hope some take some consolation in the fact that, for a time, they might have free rent. It's something.
Got Away
I think what got away from the political advisers was the fact that the reality of a crappy economy was more important than the "optic" of any unpopular policies. Maybe "stimulus" isn't super popular, though I think with a sexier name and a better sales job (not, you know, "Recovery Summer") it could be more popular. But you know what else isn't popular? No jobs.
And, politically, it might be too late. So...hope!
A Day Of Shopping
I'm so old I can remember when voluntary acts of personal service and charity were actually something conservatives supposedly valued.
Jobs
Government number comes out Friday, widely followed ADP estimate of private sector growth comes in at a whopping +91,000. That's bad news in and of itself, and likely continued reductions in public sector jobs will make it worse.
Lucky Duckies
I guess I never thought the Lucky Duckies idea would travel very far off the WSJ editorial page.
Silly me.
Silly me.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Deep Thought
Strange how stocks soar when Teh Marketz think the Fed might do what all the people on CNBC say they shouldn't do.
Maybe Better Than Nothing. Maybe.
So conventional wisdom is now leaning towards the Fed doing more... something... next month. Presumably this means more goosing of asset prices which, with a bit of luck, might do... something... maybe.
I'm generally of the 'anything is better than nothing' view when it comes to trying to boost aggregate demand, but we should recognize that miraculously we have yet another justification for doing more to help rich people.
Send everyone a $10,000 platinum coin already. Problem solved, recession over.
I'm generally of the 'anything is better than nothing' view when it comes to trying to boost aggregate demand, but we should recognize that miraculously we have yet another justification for doing more to help rich people.
Send everyone a $10,000 platinum coin already. Problem solved, recession over.
What's It All About Then
Sometimes I think it's more complicated than this, but often I think that contemporary white racial resentment boils down to people being intensely angry at the fact that someone might criticize them if they use racial slurs.
But A Tree Didn't Fall On My House
I find the Irene coverage backlash to be puzzling. It was a big storm. It did (and is still doing) a lot of damage. If it had been just a little bit worse it could have done major damage to population centers like Philly and NYC. Fortunately, it wasn't a little bit worse, but it easily could have been if the dice roll had gone the other way.
Silly Consumers
Just head to the dog track, and if you lose send your slip to Bernanke. He'll reimburse.
Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest in more than two years as Americans’ outlooks for employment, incomes and business conditions soured.
I Know It's Drudgico
So you make your own assessment of the sourcing in this article, along with the usual Villager "it's just about who gets invited to the dance" view, but regarding this.
Here's where we were in February of 2010.
Black unemployment was at 15.9% last month. Better, but not enough better. It's important to remember that this isn't about people losing their jobs for a few months and then finding another one, this is about people experiencing long term unemployment, getting chucked out of their homes and apartments, burning through what little savings they have and cashing out their retirement accounts at great penalty. This is, you know, a bad fucking situation.
In a striking turnabout for a president who has rewritten American racial history, Obama finds himself the target of criticism from the black cultural and political elite that has, for the most part, been leery of airing its disappointment.
The president is reportedly angry that African-American leaders aren’t crediting him for his hard-bought achievements that will especially help communities of color, including health care reform, aid to cities, student aid and protecting Medicaid.
“The whole thing is bull-sh-t… We have met with [black leaders] more than any other group and we are increasing our outreach,” said a person close to Obama.
Here's where we were in February of 2010.
President Barack Obama met for nearly an hour amid Wednesday’s blizzard with three civil rights leaders, who made the case for more investment in jobs, particularly in hard-hit communities. The president replied that his initiatives are aimed at helping all Americans in need, they said.
While the national unemployment rate was down a bit to 9.7% last month, African-American unemployment was still 16.5%. “This was part of our effort to raise our voices and raise the level of concern about the jobs crisis,” said Marc Morial, president and CEO of the National Urban League.
Black unemployment was at 15.9% last month. Better, but not enough better. It's important to remember that this isn't about people losing their jobs for a few months and then finding another one, this is about people experiencing long term unemployment, getting chucked out of their homes and apartments, burning through what little savings they have and cashing out their retirement accounts at great penalty. This is, you know, a bad fucking situation.
Three Years Later
The international financial system is still in crisis mode and unemployment remains at a level which, once upon a time, would have correctly been perceived as a crisis level.
Substance aside, there are those who think the people in charge are playing the politics just right. Maybe they are, but I've never had a lot of confidence that 'senior democratic strategists' have any idea what they are doing.
Where To Look
I don't pay all that much attention to the education reform debates, though I am reasonably sure that for some reason teachers get all of the attention and no one seems to be too concerned with what administrators are up to.
When I Win Big At The Dog Track I Will Have Money To Pay My Bills
Elites continue to maintain the fantasy that the problems in the financial system were just about "liquidity," which perhaps is true to some extent as long as you understand "liquidity problem" means "not enough people trust us with their money anymore."
Better Ideas
I don't agree with everything in this, but I think the basic point - that extending the Social Security payroll tax cut isn't very good bang for the buck stimulus - is completely valid. There are certainly worse not-the-best ideas as this one at least provides a bit of money for not rich people, but we shouldn't forget that there are better ideas.
The Cranky Season
I thought it was just me, but looking around the internets it seems lots of people are cranky these days.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Monday Night
Already feels like Friday, but a crappy Friday when you gotta get up early and do stuff on Saturday morning.
We All Like A Bit Of Crap
I guess the 'guilty pleasure' stuff is about liking stuff which you know not to have any weight or depth, but basically this is true of all of us. Most of us aren't programmed to be operating at full mental capacity 16 hours per day, and there are moments when a bit of crap is just what we need.
Related are people who dismiss entire genres/mediums as being crap (television, any music written after arbitrary date X, etc.)
Related are people who dismiss entire genres/mediums as being crap (television, any music written after arbitrary date X, etc.)
Not Going To Achieve Anything
The point is that what's been on the table so far isn't going to actually achieve results, if by results we mean "lowering unemployment by Nov. 2012" instead of "passing some crap through Congress that at best won't do much." Maybe the Big Plan should be presented to voters, maybe not. I actually wasn't making a messaging argument, though I do tend to think if you aren't going to have any results then messaging is all you have left. My operating premise is that the agenda of Prime Minister Obama and his economic advisers, when enacted, won't do enough, so he needs some new advisers and he needs some new plans. President Obama will have trouble getting any plan through Congress, but my point is that even Prime Minister Obama isn't going to do enough.
I Am Better Than You
Read enough of the internets and you come across a reasonable number of entries in the "my lifestyle choices which will help save the world make me better than you" genre. I don't intend to dismiss the idea that we can all make somewhat better choices which will marginally nudge the world in the right direction, but your self-righteousness will not, in fact, save the world. Your choice to be a vegetarian, or not own a car, or stick a solar panel on your roof, doesn't even necessarily mean that your actual contribution to destroying the world is particularly low relative to other people. You've probably made some other world destroying choices. More than that, we all make constrained choices. It's easy for some (me) to not own a car, for example. I imagine my failure to breed has probably lowered my contribution somewhat, but I'd never suggest that others should not have children.
The point is that individual conservation is great, but moralizing about it is mostly just preening and ultimately saving the world requires collective action. We should all be a bit more diligent about recycling, but only policy changes will really solve the problems.
The point is that individual conservation is great, but moralizing about it is mostly just preening and ultimately saving the world requires collective action. We should all be a bit more diligent about recycling, but only policy changes will really solve the problems.
Results
Monthly jobs report comes out Friday. Absent a miracle or massive mismeasurement, it most likely won't be anything close to the very very good news we need to start turning the economy around with any speed. I understand the difficulties of getting things done, of Republican obstructionism, of Democrats who also, too, suck, but ultimately such excuses don't matter. Results do. If I were the one in charge of this pop stand, I'd direct my economics team to come up with the "If I were a prime minister instead of a president, this is what we would do" plan. And if all they came up with was minor tax breaks for hiring, "patent reform," and "trade deals," I'd, you know, fire them.
Life Among The Econ
I don't think the nomination of Alan Krueger is bad, but nor does it exactly signal revolution. Still it's a good moment to offer up a rerun of this "oops I bet I said too much" moment from Krueger's former coauthor, David Card.
I think economists who objected to our work were upset by the thought that we were giving free rein to people who wanted to set wages everywhere at any possible level. And that wasn't at all the spirit of what we actually said. In fact, nowhere in the book or in other writing did I ever propose raising the minimum wage. I try to stay out of political arguments.
I think many people are concerned that much of the research they see is biased and has a specific agenda in mind. Some of that concern arises because of the open-ended nature of economic research. To get results, people often have to make assumptions or tweak the data a little bit here or there, and if somebody has an agenda, they can inevitably push the results in one direction or another. Given that, I think that people have a legitimate concern about researchers who are essentially conducting advocacy work. I try to stay away from advocacy of any kind, but that doesn't prevent people from being suspicious that I have an agenda of some kind.
I've subsequently stayed away from the minimum wage literature for a number of reasons. First, it cost me a lot of friends. People that I had known for many years, for instance, some of the ones I met at my first job at the University of Chicago, became very angry or disappointed. They thought that in publishing our work we were being traitors to the cause of economics as a whole.
All Those Cars Are Coming From And Going To Somewhere
Not really about the subject of this article, just made me think about it, but when people clamor for highway expansions I think they tend to forget that a 10 lane highway may be great until, at some point, it ceases to be a 10 lane highway. Those cars are coming and going from somewhere, and the surface streets leading to the highway often won't have the appropriate capacity.
Please Don't Tell Him To Do The Maths
Aside from the 'being wrong about stuff' part,' what's maddening about Friedman, aside that somebody actually pays him large sums of money and gives him an unlimited expense account, is that he really does seem to think that all that's necessary are his narratives and metaphors. He's telling stories, and the need to consult reality never actually occurs to him. Or his editors.
Oh What A Lovely Little War
I don't claim to know everything, and there are certainly things I know I don't know all that much about, but what I thought most of us should have learned over the past decade is that once you take the violence genie out of the bottle it's very hard to put it back in. Lots of people die in wars and their aftermaths.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
And What A Great Memory It Is
Leaving aside the stupid voluntary community service=socialism crap, I really will never understand the relationship conservative assholes have to the best day ever, 911 Day.
Recapitalize European Banks
More free money for rich people!
Might even be the right policy in some sense, as long as we all remember who the true moochers are.
And, again, for the millionth time: it's one thing to bail out the banks, yet another to bail out the shareholders, and still another to bail out the rich assholes who destroyed the banks.
Might even be the right policy in some sense, as long as we all remember who the true moochers are.
And, again, for the millionth time: it's one thing to bail out the banks, yet another to bail out the shareholders, and still another to bail out the rich assholes who destroyed the banks.
Years Later
Pampered over-privileged scribe finally discovers that it's kinda bad when people don't have any jobs or money.
Better late then never I guess.
Bye Bye Stumpy Joe
Got him!
WASHINGTON — A drone operated by the Central Intelligence Agency killed Al Qaeda’s second-ranking figure in the mountains of Pakistan on Monday, American and Pakistani officials said Saturday, further damaging a terrorism network that appears significantly weakened since the death of Osama bin Laden in May.
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation has Colin Powell to talk about who MLK would bomb. This Week has Chris Christie and FEMA dude Craig Fugate. Meet the Press has Fugate. Document the atrocities!
Good morning
Or at least, the best you can.
(Here in London, the morning sun is blasting so hard through my window that I can barely see my screen, but I hear it's a bit wet back home.)
Update: Might as well leave you with something educational to watch.
Signed,
Not Atrios
(Here in London, the morning sun is blasting so hard through my window that I can barely see my screen, but I hear it's a bit wet back home.)
Update: Might as well leave you with something educational to watch.
Signed,
Not Atrios
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Doggies In Restaurants
Seems like something fun for people to argue about on a Saturday.
Of course, it has always been a violation of the city’s health code to allow a dog anywhere near a beer tap. But for years, this has been one of the most widely — and gleefully — violated rules in the city. Not any more. Since the health department adopted a letter grade system for bars and restaurants last year, bar owners say, health inspectors are allowing no wiggle room for four-legged patrons. The stricter enforcement is apparently bringing to an end a rich tradition of dog-friendly bars in New York.
Stupid Stadium Tricks
It is a mystery to me why anyone thinks a sport with 8 home games per year can provide a local economic boost.
Wee Suggestion
In our great and glorious humanitarian enterprise, perhaps we should put down the freedom bombs for a bit and start airlifting in water. Or providing it somehow anyway.
Friday, August 26, 2011
I Don't Think They Got It Quite Right
Do you?
| Variable | Central tendency1 | Range2 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Longer run | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Longer run | |
| Change in real GDP | 2.8 to 3.5 | 3.4 to 4.5 | 3.5 to 4.5 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.3 to 4.0 | 2.7 to 4.7 | 3.0 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| November projection | 2.5 to 3.5 | 3.4 to 4.5 | 3.5 to 4.8 | 2.5 to 2.8 | 2.0 to 4.0 | 2.5 to 4.6 | 2.8 to 5.0 | 2.4 to 3.0 |
| Unemployment rate | 9.5 to 9.7 | 8.2 to 8.5 | 6.6 to 7.5 | 5.0 to 5.2 | 8.6 to 10.0 | 7.2 to 8.8 | 6.1 to 7.6 | 4.9 to 6.3 |
| November projection | 9.3 to 9.7 | 8.2 to 8.6 | 6.8 to 7.5 | 5.0 to 5.2 | 8.6 to 10.2 | 7.2 to 8.7 | 6.1 to 7.6 | 4.8 to 6.3 |
| PCE inflation | 1.4 to 1.7 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 1.3 to 2.0 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.0 | 1.0 to 2.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| November projection | 1.3 to 1.6 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.2 to 1.9 | 1.7 to 2.0 | 1.1 to 2.0 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.2 to 2.3 | 1.5 to 2.0 |
| Core PCE inflation3 | 1.1 to 1.7 | 1.0 to 1.9 | 1.2 to 1.9 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.8 to 2.0 | ||
| November projection | 1.0 to 1.5 | 1.0 to 1.6 | 1.0 to 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.0 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.2 to 2.3 | ||
Neither Football Nor Hide And Seek
Too much of the Libya coverage has treated it as a sporting event, glossing over the fact that people die in wars.
Shutting Down
My local transit authority will cease all service at 12:30 Sunday morning.
Less wimpy than New York at least!
Less wimpy than New York at least!
Pretty Easy To Pass A Drug Test If You Know When It's Going To Happen
Another reason this was a hideously dumb idea is that most "bad" drugs, other than marijuana, really don't stay in your system for very long. Random drug checks can work well for this purpose, but not self-scheduled ones, except perhaps for chronic pot smokers or true addicts.
Elite Fail
A big part of the problem is that the central bankers of the world and their cheering squad in the economics profession pulled off a nice trick. The took a reasonable concept of "central bank independence," which was basically about politicians not having the power to run the printing presses when they felt like it, and turned it into a concept about a lack of an appropriate degree of transparency or accountability. They rule our world, and they're ruling it badly, but what are we going to do about it?
A Bunch Of Meddling Kids Stamped Out All The Green Shoots
I do cheer on bad news like this, not because I want there to be actual bad news, but because I think it's clear enough that the economy sucks and anything which might actually cause politicians to notice the reality of the situation is a good news.
The Lower Classes
As inequality and the size of the underclasses rise, expect more of this. For a long time in the US, poverty has been associated with urban minorities (somewhat incorrectly of course). And we all know what's wrong with them! EvenTheNewRepublic told us! As this image of the underclass becomes impossible to maintain, we'll learn that the problem with poor people isn't that they're black (though that's a problem too!), it's that they're just rotten bad and depraved people who never learned the manners and etiquette of our betters, like Jonah Goldberg or Dick Cheney.
That's The Monetary Policy Debate
Krugman lays it out.
My maybe this should be obvious but I'm not caffeinated enough to know question is... I gather that there are monetary policy people (Bernanke included) who are, for some reason, "more comfortable" with QEII type mucking about than they are with announcing policy in order to change expectations. Why?
Well, I should add, there's also a crazy stupid people monetary debate among people who think the Great Depression should be renamed the Great Shirk...
My maybe this should be obvious but I'm not caffeinated enough to know question is... I gather that there are monetary policy people (Bernanke included) who are, for some reason, "more comfortable" with QEII type mucking about than they are with announcing policy in order to change expectations. Why?
Well, I should add, there's also a crazy stupid people monetary debate among people who think the Great Depression should be renamed the Great Shirk...
Hurricane Prep
So, uh, any suggestions? A small bit of water occasionally finds its way into the basement during really really heavy rains (standard hazard of south philly living).
Flying UHauls
Occurs to me that Irene's gonna hit the urban hellhole during Uhaul weekend. Last weekend of the month is moving weekened.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
A Place For Good Things
Sometimes I'm too grumpy and I forget that this should be fun, not just a place for bitching but a place to find WONDERFUL THINGS.
Will try to remember that a bit more going forward. Even if you all hate my youtube videos.
I Want My
I don't know if Ben or Timmeh get their chicks for free, but I think Krgthulu's point is the point which needs to advertised. In crazy times like these, you really do get your money for nothing.
Congratulations On Your FAIL
The administration promised help for homeowners in order to get the necessary TARP II release votes.
So, uh, about those promises....
So, uh, about those promises....
I Know The Little Things Don't Matter Much
But they usually aren't very difficult, either.
WASHINGTON — In October, Energy Secretary Steven Chu pledged that solar panels and a solar hot water heater would be installed on the White House roof before the start of summer.
Now, summer is almost over, the 2012 election campaign is well under way, and there are still no solar panels on the White House roof.
Everything's Coming Up Downtown
While I do think that people put too much focus on 'where the skyscrapers are' when thinking about quality urban life, instead of looking at the more residential urban neighborhoods, it's also the case that having a thriving core seems to have spillover benefits. I've been to downtown LA quite a bit over the years, and the last time I was there it was quite stunning how much it had become a pretty hopping place.
Bye COBRA Subsidy
This never had much fanfare, but was one of the things they did right.
With little fanfare, the federal COBRA subsidy program that has helped millions of the recently unemployed afford to continue health insurance will expire next week.
Everything's A Nail
You know, if I actually believed that nuclear non-proliferation was something that anybody in the Bush administration, especially Cheney, actually cared about, then maybe one could see bombing a potential Syrian reactor as a reasonable option. But I don't believe that, I just think Cheney liked to bomb things.
Hey A Bit Of Sense
I loathe all "main street" references as nobody knows what the hell main street is anymore, unless perhaps there's a "main street" section of your local mall, but otherwise it's useful to see this in the news.
Fix the banks, destroy the world is a more likely outcome.
Two U.S. Treasury secretaries and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke provided capital and cheap loans to banks during the last three years to help fuel an economic revival. It hasn’t worked out. ... “The political class is fixated on how the banking system caused the problem in the first place and therefore how it will have to cure it in the future -- that if you get the banks working again the economy works,” said Robert B. Albertson, chief strategist at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP in New York. “It drives me into silly laughter. It’s the other way around.”I suppose it should be no surprise that someone (Geithner) coming from the banking world would have thought it was indispensable. Fix the banks, fix the world was the belief. But they never thought through (or didn't care to) the true implications of what happened, that our banking system completely failed in its supposed purpose, that the people in charge therefore have no idea what the fuck they're doing.
Fix the banks, destroy the world is a more likely outcome.
It's Almost Sept. 2011
So I'm glad that maybe they're finally realizing they should do something about housing, but the details matter...
Now it's a mess. Early on there were obvious win-win-win ways through. Haircuts for loans, small bribes to servicers, investors kept happy.
Now it's a mess. Early on there were obvious win-win-win ways through. Haircuts for loans, small bribes to servicers, investors kept happy.
Perversity
Periodically, Krugman reminds us that Kenneth Arrow showed that market-based systems can't work efficiently as health care delivery mechanisms. Over at the Great Orange Satan, Mcjoan gives an object lesson. For Medicaid, and the health care system as a whole, a key element in cost control is minimizing ER admissions.
For private sector hospitals, ERs are a profit center:
For private sector hospitals, ERs are a profit center:
Efforts to reduce unnecessary ER visits by patients in Medicaid, the joint state-federal health program for the poor and disabled, are proliferating as states search for ways to control the soaring costs of the program. But state officials complain that their efforts are sometimes hampered by hospitals’ aggressive marketing of ERs to increase admissions and profits.
"Many hospitals are actively recruiting people to come to the ER for non-emergency reasons," said Anthony Keck, South Carolina's Medicaid director, citing facilities that tout their speedy ER service on highway billboards. "When you are advertising on billboards that your ER wait time is three minutes, you are not advertising to stroke and heart attack victims," he said.
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Poor People In LA And San Francisco Mostly Don't Have Cars
But even if they did, the important point is that smart parking charging policies don't just involve raising prices. In San Francisco prices increased/stayed same/decreased in about even proportions. Generally, however, in larger cities with not horrible transit systems if your concern for poor people begins and ends with the price of parking you probably don't have much actual concern for the lives of poor people.
Deep Thought
I admit blogging was a bit more fun when it was mostly about finding new and creative ways to inform the world that George Bush sucked.
Elite Fail
Occasionally I find some comfort in the fact that we're not the only country with elites who are stupid and/or evil.
Only occasionally.
Only occasionally.
Also
Raising the Medicare eligibility age would increase health care costs.
So, you know, lowering it would... decrease health care costs.
Shhh. Don't tell anyone
So, you know, lowering it would... decrease health care costs.
Shhh. Don't tell anyone
The Fed Could Buy All The Debt And Then Burn It
No I don't know what precise legal authority the Fed has to do such things, but roughly speaking what happened is that the Fed gave all the Banksters a giant do-over on all of their bad bets. But the rest of us didn't get any such do-over. If they gave us a do-over, by, say, giving everyone a 30% haircut on their debts, then people would have more money to spend.
But only giant mega banksters, the smartest guys in the room, the ones who destroyed the economy, get a do over. The rest of us have to suffer so that they economy can continue to be in recession. No I don't know why this is. In "normal" (full employment) times all these crazy ideas would be bad policy. But we aren't in normal times, and giving people lots of free money would actually be very good policy. Better policy than giving it to the Banksters anyway.
But only giant mega banksters, the smartest guys in the room, the ones who destroyed the economy, get a do over. The rest of us have to suffer so that they economy can continue to be in recession. No I don't know why this is. In "normal" (full employment) times all these crazy ideas would be bad policy. But we aren't in normal times, and giving people lots of free money would actually be very good policy. Better policy than giving it to the Banksters anyway.
Sent Home From School
I'm not sure I get the legal basis for these "deals" anyway, but surely with all of this stuff running through New York trust law I'm not sure how you do it without them.
White-Coat Hypertension
I have this. I can feel my blood pressure spike when the sphygmomanometer comes out.
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Hamp'd
For a moment there was catastrophe and goodwill. Also, too, slush fund billions.
They made choices.
They made choices.
The Stupidest Man Alive
Andrew Malcolm is going to have to work harder as long as Jim Hoft is in the game.
Bargaining
Basically if the richest most awesomest country in the world can't provide, for most people who try reasonably hard (and a safety net for those it doesn't provide for), enough money to have a place to live, transportation, ability to raise a couple of kids and send them to college, have some nice things and the occasional vacation or night out, then we're doing something wrong.
That most economists are content to define the social welfare function as W=Real GDP is a problem
That most economists are content to define the social welfare function as W=Real GDP is a problem
But Did He Lie About Using Steroids?
We should all remember that the scope of prosecutable lies to Congress has narrowed somewhat in recent years.
Shares in the Wall Street bank fell in late trading on Monday when it emerged that Blankfein had retained Reid Weingarten, criminal defence attorney at Steptoe & Johnson. Blankfein turned to Weingarten after the US Department of Justice began investigating the way Goldman sold subprime mortgage securities – the toxic investments that triggered the credit crunch.
Blankfein has also been accused of misleading a Senate committee – a claim that is emphatically denied by Goldman.
Withern
Doesn't take all that much to chuck reasonable due process out the window.
Senior Metropolitan police officers devised a policy of holding all people arrested on riot-related offences in custody and recommending that the courts also refuse bail after they were charged, according to a leaked "prisoner processing strategy" that lawyers argue could pave the way for a mass legal challenge.
The document sheds significant light on the Met's processes and could explain why people accused of apparently minor offences such as theft of small items or receipt of stolen goods were not cautioned. They included a 23-year old student with no previous convictions who was refused bail and then sentenced to six months in prison for stealing a £3.50 bottle of water. The debate about sentencing of people accused of taking part in the riots has so far focused on the courts' right to use "exemplary" sentencing – harsher sentences to deter people from rioting. But the document suggests that in deciding whether or not to grant bail the courts would have also been considering recommendations from the police to detain people in the vast majority of cases.
Stuck In The Middle With You
Not really necessary for regular readers of this blog, but any time a pundit constructs a "clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right" column, that column can be tuned out.
Or Maybe A Hundred
I'm sorry, England, for inflicting you with our stupidity.
He does love his 100 year timelines.
John McCain (left), the US Republican senator who ran for president in 2008 and is known in America as a foreign policy expert, has just been speaking to Sky News about the situation in Libya. He said: "Now we have succeeded militarily, now the major challenge of building democracy will come." It took the US over 100 years and a bloody civil war before it decided "what sort of country we wanted to be", McCain said.
He does love his 100 year timelines.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Um...For Starters...
A HAMP-type program that wasn't actually a government blessed predatory lending program? It's easy to hide behind Congress, but we can also look at the things they had direct power over.
Perhaps A Committee?
I'm sort of kidding, but mildly suggesting that maybe looking for "one unifying figure" is not the best way to be thinking about this issue.
Though I suppose the last unifying figure had a pretty good run.
Revealing
It is revealing that Andrew Malcolm is fighting as hard as he can to win the stupidest man alive contest.
Random Reminder
People die in gun battles, from the perspective on the ground it isn't always clear who the good guys and bad guys are, and not everybody really has much choice in which team they're fighting for.
Today's Worst Person In The World
Shaun Donovan.
In recent weeks, Shaun Donovan, the secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and high-level Justice Department officials have been waging an intensifying campaign to try to persuade the attorney general to support the settlement, said the people briefed on the talks. ... In an interview on Friday, Mr. Donovan defended his discussions with the attorney general, saying they were motivated by a desire to speed up help for troubled homeowners. But he said he had not spoken to bank officials or their representatives about trying to persuade Mr. Schneiderman to get on board with the deal.Please just stop. Stop. It's Almost September, 2011, do not dare suggest speedy help for homeowners is any concern.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Let's Play Our Bastard/Not Our Bastard
McCain 2009:
McCain today:
Late evening with Col. Qadhafi at his "ranch" in Libya - interesting meeting with an interesting man.
McCain today:
Looking ahead to a possible rebel victory in the civil war, John McCain said it will be very difficult to build a united democratic government there, due to the tribal rivalries.
"We've seen the difficulties with other countries who made this transition, but we will be rid of a guy who has the blood of Americans on his hands. We will be rid of a guy who has practised the worst kind of brutalities. And now it's going to be up to us and the Europeans."
McCain said he thinks the opposition forces can ultimately succeed in setting up a new government, aided by revenues from oil. He said he believes it is a "matter of hours, if not days" before Gaddafi falls.
The Impotence Of Jibber Jabber
Floating around out there is the basic idea that the presidential bully pulpit isn't very powerful. I can accept that no amount of presidential jibber jabber can force through policy (might be true, might not, but a reasonable argument). So, then, the entire point of presidential jibber jabber is simply the politics. It isn't the package, it's the advertising. Fair enough.
Has the focus on cutting the deficit for the past 20 months or so really been good politics?
Has the focus on cutting the deficit for the past 20 months or so really been good politics?
Sunday Bobbleheads
Face the Nation is on reruns for August apparently, and gives us an oldie but goodie from the year 2000, with John McCain, Terry McAuliffe, and Ed Gillespie.
This Week has GOP presidential frontrunner Jon Huntsman (only 53 cents on Intrade!) and Axelrod.
Meet the Press has Gibbs and Mitch Daniels.
Document the atrocities!
Just Have Your Assistant Take Care Of That
My post office is always full. People do lots of things there, but one thing they do is pick up packages. Often they aren't home when the postman tries to deliver.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Something Other Than Hippie Punching In Our Future
So in September new product will be rolled out. It will hopefully be more than hippie punching. However, currently all signs point to the administration pre-negotiating a deal (give us money for jobs and we'll take the blame for other future cuts!) instead of making the case that something needs to be done about jobs, and letting the Republicans provide their counteroffer.
No I don't know why they do things this way.
No I don't know why they do things this way.
Fringe Views
It really doesn't matter all that much whether the economy, according to somewhat arbitrary criteria, has another "recession." I think the true fringe view, where fringe means outside the Village, is that unending 9.0%+ unemployment is horrible and requires an appropriate policy response. The point is we never got out of the last recession, and whether GDP growth is barely positive or barely negative doesn't matter all that much.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Super Duper Committee
I don't know how effective this will be, but it's just insane that anyone thinks 'lowering the deficit' is an important policy goal in and of itself. More jobs and/or higher GDP growth with broadly distributed gains are policy goals. Lowering the deficit, in normal times, might be a way of achieving those goals. In the middle of a long deep recession, the best you can say is that it's idiotic.
How Many Times Can We Write This Story
NYT:
Yet, even at this hour, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic seem determined to handcuff fiscal policies — the main tools that can increase jobs, consumer demand and economic growth — with an unquestioning devotion to rigid austerity.Too often lost in all of this is that as the stimulus began to wind down we entered a period of anti-stimulus. The federal government joined state and local governments in being a drag on growth. And the beatings will continue.
Investor FeeFees
The sad truth is that only a stock market crash can spur elites to act. Not that they'll necessarily act in a good way.
ATRIOS IS PROBABLY DEAD
Noted blogger Duncan Black is presumed murdered in the "flash mob violence gripping the city" of Philadelphia.
Allegedly, Mr. Black is mourned by his cats.
Allegedly, Mr. Black is mourned by his cats.
A Funny Joke
Via Steve M. Here is a funny joke.
Anyway civility harrumph discourse coarsening etc. and so forth. Can I hope in public that McMaster dies in a well-publicized two-wetsuit ball-gargling mishap, or would that be impolite?
Henry McMaster, the state's silver-haired former attorney general, then makes the political tenor of the room explicit when he rises to introduce Jon Huntsman in his thick-as-gravy drawl. "Some of you folks may remembah that I made a pledge that I looked forward to the day Democrats in South Carolina were so rare we'd have to start huntin' em with dawgs," McMaster intones. "It's come true! You cay-ant find any!"Maybe those dogs would have come in handy when the SC governor disappeared on the Appalachin Trail.
Anyway civility harrumph discourse coarsening etc. and so forth. Can I hope in public that McMaster dies in a well-publicized two-wetsuit ball-gargling mishap, or would that be impolite?
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Strictly Comedy
It's funny watching the Right get all sniffy over Dan Savage's "Santorum" coinage, mostly because they are claiming that when they say to gays "what you do is totally gross and destroying civilization and also you are going to HELL," that is just Civil Discourse because Jesus.
In Defense Of Crap Beer
I also hail our new craft brew republic, but I do think sometimes beer snobbery overlooks the fact that sometimes a light watery mostly tasteless lager is actually just thing. Hot summer day, when you plan to drink a decent amount for a long time (and drink a lot).
Still it remains a mystery to me how marketing turned "girl beer" (as light beer was marketed back in the day) into Macho Sports Watching Mancave Man beer.
A round of bud light limes on me.
Still it remains a mystery to me how marketing turned "girl beer" (as light beer was marketed back in the day) into Macho Sports Watching Mancave Man beer.
A round of bud light limes on me.
Going Backwards
While we all mock the hopey-changey stuff a bit, I admit we could use a little bit of hopey-changey right now. Yes We Can is better than No We Can't.
I Guess The Zombie Unicorns Ate The Bond Vigilantes
Yum.
WASHINGTON — US Treasury bond yields plunged Thursday, with the 10-year yield hitting a record low as worries about a new recession in the United States and Europe battered stock markets.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.974 percent, lower than the previous record during the US "Great Recession," before recovering slightly to 2.007 percent, while the 30-year hit 3.337 percent before rebounding to 3.371.
The Two Step
As we're nearing yet another pivot to jobs, it's worth noting that crazy hippies warned that the jobs/deficit two-step was going to be very difficult. The powers that be thought the green shoots were here, that the jobs were going to take care of themselves, then they'd be deficit heroes as the economy turned around. It's always 1995 in other words.
I'm for anything and everything to help stimulate the economy short run, but potentially tying it to catastrophic long term spending cuts isn't really going to please people.
I'm for anything and everything to help stimulate the economy short run, but potentially tying it to catastrophic long term spending cuts isn't really going to please people.
One Seat
Public transit to the airport is always going to be a slightly problematic beast given that people have luggage, and sometimes lots of luggage. But if you're going to spend the money to do it, it needs to be, for as many people as possible, a one seat ride. An additional switch onto a "people mover" or similar isn't really superior to a bus.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
408K new lucky duckies. Not good news.
Also, too, WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Also, too, WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
"Stirring Them Up"
Perhaps some outside agitators?
PALMYRA, Pa. — Hundreds of foreign students, waving their fists and shouting defiantly in many languages, walked off their jobs on Wednesday at a plant here that packs Hershey’s chocolates, saying a summer program that was supposed to be a cultural exchange had instead turned them into underpaid labor.
...
The students said they mainly placed blame on the organization that manages the J-1 visa program for the State Department, the Council for Educational Travel, U.S.A., which is based in California.
Rick Anaya, chief executive of the council, said he had brought about 6,000 J-1 visa students to the United States this summer. Mr. Anaya said he had tried to respond to the Palmyra workers’ complaints. “We are not getting any cooperation,” he said. “We are trying to work with these kids. All this negativity is hurting an excellent program. We would go out of our way to help them, but it seems like someone is stirring them up out there.”
Ron!
It totally fucks with the narrative to have a marijuana legalizing, anti-war Republican candidate finishing a whisker out of first place in the vitally important Iowa straw poll.
But, you know, there it is.
Move along people. Nothing to see here.
But, you know, there it is.
Move along people. Nothing to see here.
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
I Am The Professional Left
Not really, and I don't ever imagine the Very Important People sit up late at night worrying about what's being posted on the walls of this humble lemonade stand. But to the extent that something might be in their base bugging their d00dz, I hope it isn't the armchair punditry or even the policy advice. It's that we've basically had 9.0%+ unemployment for 2.5 years and maybe..somebody should do something.
No One Is Stopping Them
I take the whole 'buy floating island nation' thingy as just a stalling tactic. I'm reasonably sure there's a plot of land somewhere out there which could be bought with an agreement to be free from all state interference. Of course that freedom would include freedom from the pesky burden of the state defending the property rights, so...
In practice, of course, even libertarian paradises would have laws. And means for changing and enforcing those laws. And an evolving concept of just what the community wants. Ultimately I suppose some hybrid of Lord of the Flies and Gated Community in Irvine, CA, would emerge and then, you know, collapse. Maybe it's what happened to the "lost colony" of Roanoke.
In practice, of course, even libertarian paradises would have laws. And means for changing and enforcing those laws. And an evolving concept of just what the community wants. Ultimately I suppose some hybrid of Lord of the Flies and Gated Community in Irvine, CA, would emerge and then, you know, collapse. Maybe it's what happened to the "lost colony" of Roanoke.
Choose Your Targets Well
The point is that while I don't personally appreciate hippie punching, and don't think hippie punching usually does much to serve my personal political goals, I can respect hacks who punch hippies in service of their goals. The job of hacks is to be, well, hacks, and I can respect competency in hackdom even if I'm not necessarily on board with their agenda. It's when they're both incompetent and pushing a crap agenda that I begin to worry about the people running the show...
I Blame The Jane Hamshers Of The Left
I'm cynical enough that I get that, you know, politicians gotta do what they gotta do and if attacking the Jane Hamshers Of The Left and KRGTHULU is the way to get money, love, and votes, then more power to them.
If.
If.
Hurray For Texas
The Texas miracle hasn't actually been one, but they've been doing the right thing, even if their governor is full of shit, replacing lost private sector jobs with public ones.
If only the rest of the country had managed to follow that model. If only someone other than obscure former administration officials (irony here) pointed it out.
If only the rest of the country had managed to follow that model. If only someone other than obscure former administration officials (irony here) pointed it out.
They Speak For Amurka
Groups don't have to have large numbers or be popular to have outsized political power, of course, so covering such groups might have merit. Pretending they're the soul of America does not.
Of course, politicians of all stripes are not faring well among the public these days. But in data we have recently collected, the Tea Party ranks lower than any of the 23 other groups we asked about — lower than both Republicans and Democrats. It is even less popular than much maligned groups like “atheists” and “Muslims.” Interestingly, one group that approaches it in unpopularity is the Christian Right.
Boondoggles
Yes it's always reasonable to ask if money on public works projects is being well-spent, but liberal pundits are rarely goaded into applying those same questions to road and highway projects which we always have with us. As with war, roads are "free," and the question is only "can we get the money," not "should we spend it."
Is $80 billion for the 400 or so miles of HSr from Anaheim to San Francisco (couldn't find precise route length for some reason) worth it? I don't suppose there's any correct answer. But is $1 billion to add 10 miles of HOV lanes to an existing highway worth it? Again, I don't think there's any correct answer. The benefits of all such infrastructure projects are very hard to quantify.
Is $80 billion for the 400 or so miles of HSr from Anaheim to San Francisco (couldn't find precise route length for some reason) worth it? I don't suppose there's any correct answer. But is $1 billion to add 10 miles of HOV lanes to an existing highway worth it? Again, I don't think there's any correct answer. The benefits of all such infrastructure projects are very hard to quantify.
Anxious Markets
The discourse about our financial markets is so stupid.
Whether the market goes up or down depends on the feefees of our Galtian overlords, and their feefees depend, in turn, on how much free money all the governments are willing to shove down their gullets.
Set cash distribution intensity to: foie gras.
Whether the market goes up or down depends on the feefees of our Galtian overlords, and their feefees depend, in turn, on how much free money all the governments are willing to shove down their gullets.
Set cash distribution intensity to: foie gras.
For Christina Santiago
I'm a bit ashamed that the only reason I learned that a very good person named Christina Santiago died in the Indiana State Fair calamity is that I read wingnut blogs and the blogs that read them.
Here is something to do.
Here is something to do.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Run Away
A financial transactions tax is a good idea, but balanced budgets are insane.
Look, as with our states which mostly require kind of fake balanced budgets, it isn't necessarily (though I still think wrong) horrible as long as there is a central government which can step in. But absent automatic regional transfers during recessions, this is just a horrible horrible policy.
PARIS — Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, on Tuesday called for closer coordination of economic policy among the 17 countries that share the euro currency and proposed that they enshrine in their constitutions an obligation to balance their national budgets.
Look, as with our states which mostly require kind of fake balanced budgets, it isn't necessarily (though I still think wrong) horrible as long as there is a central government which can step in. But absent automatic regional transfers during recessions, this is just a horrible horrible policy.
But She Said It Was Inconceivable
This will surprise no one.
I'm old enough to know that in our great and glorious new millenium, elites are never punished for their actions, corrupt or criminal, and it's interesting to note that if they had stuck to dumpster diving in celebrity trash this probably would never have blown up into a big scandal.
LONDON — A high-profile parliamentary panel investigating phone hacking at Rupert Murdoch’s now-defunct News of the World tabloid released new allegations Tuesday suggesting that, despite assertions to the contrary by the newspaper’s owners and editors, the practice of intercepting voice mail was “widely discussed” at the newspaper.
I'm old enough to know that in our great and glorious new millenium, elites are never punished for their actions, corrupt or criminal, and it's interesting to note that if they had stuck to dumpster diving in celebrity trash this probably would never have blown up into a big scandal.
Elite Fail
It doesn't have to be this way.
I guess we can be comforted by the fact that the Euro-elites are as incompetent and/or evil as our elites are.
FRANKFURT — Economic growth in the euro area fell more than expected in the three months through June, according to official figures released Tuesday, as growth in Germany came almost to a standstill.
I guess we can be comforted by the fact that the Euro-elites are as incompetent and/or evil as our elites are.
Lies and the Lying Liars
Sean Hannity edition.
A still dishonest but semi-acceptable way to do this would be to present the unemployment rate on election day, the October or November'12 '08 numbers. So, 6.6-6.8% unemployment rate. But the 5.6-5.7% numbers are just made up completely.
A still dishonest but semi-acceptable way to do this would be to present the unemployment rate on election day, the October or November
Monday, August 15, 2011
Baffling
The continued systematic pursuit of obviously bad public policy is baffling. It's not like it's good politics. Does the Obama campaign staff really think they are gonna hold PA or OH with trade concessions to Korea? Do they think they will turn out voters in New Mexico on a deportation platform?
This isn't hard. Hire people to build things with the free money the world is offering us.
This isn't hard. Hire people to build things with the free money the world is offering us.
Rube's Greatest Masterpiece
I tend to think HCR will be, on balance, a good thing, though I'm not entirely oppoed to the argument that 'doing nothing and letting the system destroy itself' might have led to something better long run. But it really doesn't have to be this complicated.
Poll Position
I don't know if the latest less than awesome Obama polls are a blip or a trend, but I do think an underemphasized story of his presidency so far is how incredibly popular he has been despite all the problems there are.
So Strange
I guess the reasoning is that even with relatively widespread tolling you concentrate the pain on a smaller proportion of the population, and you can implement them bit by bit. Still I'd bet "small gas tax increase" would poll better than "massive widespread high tolling program."
People hate tolls, but they seem inevitable. Florida and every other growth state confronted with maintaining and expanding its transportation infrastructure must deal with the reality that the gas tax no longer gets the job done. Increases in the fuel efficiency of cars and trucks mean it is a poor long-term way to pay for tomorrow's roads and bridges.
"People may still be using the system as much as they were, but they're not paying as much into the system," said Prasad. "Obviously, raising the gas tax is not an option in the current environment."
Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Sum Summertime
It occurs to me that we're half of the way through August and we haven't had any complete crazy yet.
Or maybe it happened and I mentally blocked it out already.
Or maybe it happened and I mentally blocked it out already.
At Least It's Not A Helicopter
As relayed to me by friends who have had babies here in the urban hellhole, they don't require you to bring your baby home in a car, but they do require that you demonstrate that you are in possession of an acceptable car seat.
This is in a high poverty rate city where a substantial number of households (mine included!) are not in possession of a car.
This is in a high poverty rate city where a substantial number of households (mine included!) are not in possession of a car.
All They Really Need To Do Is Turn The Machines Back On
Who cares about all this manufacturing nonsense when there's so much action at the Great Casino.
Meanwhile
Over there.
I suppose we'd better give it another six months then.
Baghdad (CNN) -- More than a dozen bombing and shooting attacks struck Iraq Monday, killing at least 69 people and wounded 168, authorities told CNN.
It was the worst wave of violence to strike the country in months, coming just weeks after Iraq's political leaders agreed to request U.S. troops stay beyond a January 1, 2012, deadline to withdraw.
I suppose we'd better give it another six months then.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Something Might Tickle Her Vagina Eventually
I don't know enough about the actual effectiveness/risks of Garadasil to have any opinion on the medical/safety aspects of it, but conceptually I'm driven insane by people who oppose such things on the grounds that their only purpose is to allow for nasty dirty immoral pre-marital sex. Of course I'm all for nasty dirty immoral pre-marital sex personally, but it takes a great degree of idiocy to fail to comprehend that even if she's a "good girl" her one and only sexual partner might not be a good boy. Also, too, perhaps her children would appreciate a live mom.
Sunday Bobbleheads
BACHMANIA edition.
This Week has Bachmann and TPaw.
Face the Nation has Bachmann and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
Meet the Press has Bachmann and the Republican governor of Iowa.
Document the atrocities!
This Week has Bachmann and TPaw.
Face the Nation has Bachmann and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
Meet the Press has Bachmann and the Republican governor of Iowa.
Document the atrocities!
Deficit Threats
I'm never sure from day to day just how much I should be afraid of the deficit. What would really help would be if we created a government agency that would issue color-coded Deficit-Threat warnings whenever the "chatter" indicated a really bad imminent deficit threat, like, "oh no, Code Red, don't build that tunnel from Manhattan to Jersey."
Apparently we'd only ever need one color anyhow, but still.
Apparently we'd only ever need one color anyhow, but still.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Best. Comment. Ever.
Such fun.
It is a shame no one in this country reads but Atlas Shrugged predicted this PERFECTLY in the 50's. Unions know how to protest, illicit guilt and pity, drink alcohol and they DO NOT KNOW HOW TO WORK HARD! THEY DO NOT KNOW QUALITY!!! There is absolutely no denying these assertions while observing the facts. When people get their jobs by being good at guilt tripping the public, they have no need to be good at their job - just to keep peole gullible and sypathetic. Get ready for more de-railments, power outages, etc...
What's The Agenda
At a certain point, the level of wrongness and deception precludes mere self-deception and suggests, you know, deliberate and intentioned deception. And then it's appropriate to ask just what it's all about?
One interesting sociological wrinkle in my life among the econ was a pervasive weird belief that all members of the tribe in good standing weren't just the bestest and the smartest, but were also highly ethical. I never quite understood why they thought (or claimed to think) members of Tribe Econ did not respond to the incentives they assumed everyone else did.
One interesting sociological wrinkle in my life among the econ was a pervasive weird belief that all members of the tribe in good standing weren't just the bestest and the smartest, but were also highly ethical. I never quite understood why they thought (or claimed to think) members of Tribe Econ did not respond to the incentives they assumed everyone else did.
The Worst Person In The World
I can certainly see why people, especially older people, went through life in the closet, but I just don't know why any of them would dedicate their lives to making things miserable for everyone else.
Priorities
I suppose they can all look forward to decades in their new lucrative careers as Wal-Mart greeters.
When the small, beleaguered city of Central Falls, R.I., filed for bankruptcy this month, it sought to cut the pension checks it has been sending its retired police officers, firefighters and other workers by as much as half. All the city promises now is that its retirees, many of whom do not get Social Security, will not have their benefits cut to less than $10,000 a year.On the bright side, Social Security cuts won't affect them. So there's that.
Friday, August 12, 2011
Insane Ideas: Pay People To Clean The Streets
The way to deal with urban trash is to pay people to clean it up. Sure you can hope residents and visitors litter less, but ultimately there's going to be some (and not just because people are assholes, because often trash/recycling blows around on trash day). Setting up separate business improvement districts is how some areas have dealt with the city not providing this service, but of course that adds yet another layer of administration/collections/enforcement which, you know, costs more money.
Want clean streets? Pay people to clean them. It really isn't complicated.
Want clean streets? Pay people to clean them. It really isn't complicated.
Fair Share
Mitt Romney has dedicated himself to the idea that the biggest problem in this country is that the poor and middle class have it too good.
This is actually one of their powerful little rhetorical games. Lots of people don't feel very rich. All of them know they pay taxes, because all of them do pay taxes. Even if they actually don't pay any federal income tax, they pay payroll taxes, perhaps state and local income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, etc... But suddenly they hear half the country doesn't pay any income taxes! Who are these people? Undeserving people, of course.
And when President Romney massively increases taxes on the vast majority of Americans, don't look for the Village to point out that it's the "biggest tax increase in history" or whatever. It'll just be asking people to pay their fair share.
This is actually one of their powerful little rhetorical games. Lots of people don't feel very rich. All of them know they pay taxes, because all of them do pay taxes. Even if they actually don't pay any federal income tax, they pay payroll taxes, perhaps state and local income taxes, sales taxes, property taxes, etc... But suddenly they hear half the country doesn't pay any income taxes! Who are these people? Undeserving people, of course.
And when President Romney massively increases taxes on the vast majority of Americans, don't look for the Village to point out that it's the "biggest tax increase in history" or whatever. It'll just be asking people to pay their fair share.
There Was Never Any Civil Unrest Until The Internet Came Along
It won't be surprising to find out that the way people communicate with each other (texting and cell phones) is, in fact, the way people communicate with each other. But in the UK, and to a lesser extent Philly where we've had some mob issues, the press just runs with ZOMG THE KIDZ ARE ORGANIZING ON THE INTERNET!!!!, without actually ever pointing to any evidence of such activities on the twitter and the facebook. They just love their SCARY NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL KILL US ALL stories. And this is fucking stupid.
Ministers and the security services are planning draconian powers to shut down or disrupt mobile phone messaging services and social networks in times of civil disorder.
Downing Street sources said they were considering the "moral and technical" questions of how to grant new powers blocking all mobile communications to prevent rioters organising through websites such as Twitter and the BlackBerry Messenger service.
They'd Better Contract Their Way To Prosperity, Too
And we'll all go down together.
Nobody cares about the jobs targets, the income targets, or the general human welfare targets. Just the deficit.
PARIS—Data released Friday showed the French economy failed to grow in the second quarter from the first as consumers sharply cut spending, complicating government plans to reduce its deficit as financial markets question its prized triple-A credit rating.
Gross domestic product in the euro zone's second-largest economy was flat in the second quarter after a 0.9% expansion in the first quarter from the end of 2010, national statistics agency Insee said. The figure dashed expectations of a 0.3% expansion, fueling concerns the government may not have the breathing space to meet its deficit targets.
Nobody cares about the jobs targets, the income targets, or the general human welfare targets. Just the deficit.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Up With Corporations
I admit that these days I have relatively low interest in stupid stuff stupid politicians say. But I do love me some Mittens.
Crazy Talk
The thing is that of course a commission concerned with the deficit should be concerned about jobs, as more jobs = "free" way to cut deficit. Yes such a dual mission (cut deficit and increase jobs) might be a bit more complicated than simply increasing jobs, but it's only in our crazy discourse that jobs aren't seen as central to the anti-deficit agenda.
The Worst Person In The World
Some degree of justice.
SCRANTON, Pa. — A longtime northeastern Pennsylvania judge was ordered to spend nearly three decades in prison for his role in a massive juvenile justice bribery scandal that prompted the state's high court to toss thousands of convictions.
Former Luzerne County Judge Mark Ciavarella Jr. was sentenced Thursday to 28 years in federal prison for taking $1 million in bribes from the builder of a pair of juvenile detention centers in a case that became known as "kids for cash."
Transparency
As I've written a million times, a pure mileage charge system is just an overly complicated way to avoid raising the gas tax by adding an exciting new incredibly intrusive tax which would be much more popular. Or something. A system which also includes congestion charging and tolling is not entirely without merit, but the problem with these types of systems is that they'll probably like the necessary price transparency. People only respond to prices appropriately when they're fairly simple and they're understood. If you have continuously varying tolls based on route choice and congestion, there's no way that people can really process that information in real time in order to make informed choices. Pricing systems just can't be that complicated.
Little Bastards
I'll never really quite understand how conservatives get so much joy in punching down instead of punching up. Always picking on someone smaller than themselves.
Buy American
Not necessarily against such provisions in general, but they do cause a lot of problems in the market for SUPERTRAINS. If we actually had some sort of decent national policy and coordination between transit agencies, we could probably create sufficient sustained demand for rail cars (both inter-city and light rail systems) to support domestic production, but given the low level of demand, the great uncertainty about funding any of these projects, and the fact that no coordination means no 'off the rack' models can be made, buying American becomes complicated and expensive.
Not Quite Sure I Get It Either
Obviously "investors" would love tax breaks and whatever other gimmicks might be thrown at them, but otherwise I'm not quite sure what this is about either. The only thing I can see is perhaps it's an attempt to essentially create a new business, property management of a large portfolio of single family home, something which for reasons I'm unclear on doesn't really exist.
One Of You Did Kill The Confidence Fairy
Obviously this isn't a poll of our Galtian Overlords, and as such does not matter so much, but it's still of some concern.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Tort
On one of my listservs for some reason the story came up of the lady who spilled her McDonald's coffee and made a gazillion dollars for no good reason because of our crazy courts. Someone pointed out that, in fact, the system worked just like it should have--that McDonald's really was serving coffee at dangerously hot levels, and the response to the suit was they stopped doing that. That is, without evil government regulatory intervention, the private court system worked--McDonalds stopped engaging in a practice that was bad for its customers, and one of the people damaged by that practice got compensated.
There's been a raft of this kind of thing in medical devices. Here's a guy who is going after a J&J subsidiary, for knowingly selling hip replacements that crap out.
I get confused, I guess. Conservatives want "deregulation." And they want "tort reform."
I guess we're on our own.....
There's been a raft of this kind of thing in medical devices. Here's a guy who is going after a J&J subsidiary, for knowingly selling hip replacements that crap out.
I get confused, I guess. Conservatives want "deregulation." And they want "tort reform."
I guess we're on our own.....
The Email It Is New
All complaints should be addressed to suckonthis@tomfriedman.com.
Words of support and praise, bags of cash, and other general sycophancy should be addressed to:
Words of support and praise, bags of cash, and other general sycophancy should be addressed to:
Perhaps Another Speech
As I've observed many times, it's absurd that it takes a stock market crash to draw attention to a crap economy that is, indeed, crap, but that's where we are...
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Another exciting day at the dog track. We should all agree that the growth is too damn low.
Inflation Might Lower The Damn (Real) Rent
I don't have a precise economic model in the back of head driving this assertion, but inflation could reduce the number of people who were underwater in nominal terms (which matters when borrowing constraints are binding), putting more supply on the market, and landlords who can easily set their rents above their debt servicing costs might be less likely to raise rents, particularly for long term 'good tenants' who they have an incentive to keep around.
In any case, inflation would certainly good for the large numbers of people who have fixed-rate debt.
In any case, inflation would certainly good for the large numbers of people who have fixed-rate debt.
Too Big To Fail
Too often lost in this discussion is that even if institutions (corporations) are reasonably considered to be "too big to fail," it doesn't mean that their shareholders are too important to be wiped out, and it certainly doesn't mean that management is too important to get their pink slips.
Maybe you save the company. Maybe you even save the shareholders. You certainly don't save the assholes that drove their companies and the economy into the ground.
Maybe you save the company. Maybe you even save the shareholders. You certainly don't save the assholes that drove their companies and the economy into the ground.
Saved By Bundling
I'd guess the cable tv decline would have started earlier and been much sharper if not for the fact that in many places cable is the only decent broadband option and the unbundled price of internet is really high.
Stupid Or Lying
I think gross misunderstandings of the 1st law of thermodynamics are about as common as people intoning 'correlation does not imply causation' as if it was the most profound statement ever made, and one that PhD level researchers are unaware of.
Often the stupid or lying question is resolved with the simple answer: they just don't care.
Often the stupid or lying question is resolved with the simple answer: they just don't care.
AUSTERITY
BBCNews: "Bank of England downgrades GDP growth to 1.4%"
That's the 2011 growth forecast. It was previously 1.9%.
That's the 2011 growth forecast. It was previously 1.9%.
""Human Rights""
What strange people they are.
Dissertations could be written about The Derb, though not ones you'd want to read.
Dissertations could be written about The Derb, though not ones you'd want to read.
Parents Just Aren't Understood
One of the themes percolating through the UK press about the riots in London and elsewhere is a general condemnation of the parents of the "kids" (they don't all look that young to me) who are involved. "WHERE ARE THE PARENTS?"
I mean, I have no idea where they are, but wishing random parents were "better" is like wishing the sky was a more appealing shade of pink. If poor parenting is the issue for whatever reason (including, of course, the difficulties of good parenting under poverty conditions), the appropriate response is...what? Yell at the parents? Lament that they're bad? Kids aren't responsible for their parents, and there aren't obvious policy mechanisms for ensuring good parenting. Though there are some obvious ones for making it easier to be a good parent.
I mean, I have no idea where they are, but wishing random parents were "better" is like wishing the sky was a more appealing shade of pink. If poor parenting is the issue for whatever reason (including, of course, the difficulties of good parenting under poverty conditions), the appropriate response is...what? Yell at the parents? Lament that they're bad? Kids aren't responsible for their parents, and there aren't obvious policy mechanisms for ensuring good parenting. Though there are some obvious ones for making it easier to be a good parent.
We Are Ruled By The Worst People In The World
I get that they just don't agree with me on policy, but what crazy person thinks running around the state touting "patent reform" and "trade agreements" is going to get you re-elected?
It's not the case that my only goal in life is not to root for team D, but obviously I am, to a degree, on Team D, and it hurts me to see them kick the ball into their own goal over and over again. Even when they're just horrible on the policy, too.
It's not the case that my only goal in life is not to root for team D, but obviously I am, to a degree, on Team D, and it hurts me to see them kick the ball into their own goal over and over again. Even when they're just horrible on the policy, too.
I Appreciate The Effort
But like the rest of us, the NYT is pissing in the wind.
1) Pretend to cut future deficits
2) ??
3) Jobs!!
But having spent far too long haggling over the margins of the Republican agenda to reduce the deficit with only spending cuts, the president needs to move to a very different set of priorities. He should start making the case that it is foolish to focus the nation’s attention solely on debt, where the Republicans want it, and instead shift every available resource toward jobs.
If he becomes passionate about the government’s ability to think creatively about a turnaround, he might just inspire a few Americans — some of them lawmakers — to join with him. If he stays locked into the arid agenda of the Republicans, the economy will remain as dormant as his speech on Monday, which is just where his rivals hope it will be in November 2012.
1) Pretend to cut future deficits
2) ??
3) Jobs!!
It's Not A Hurricane
The people who run the world want to see all crises - including the financial crises - as external events, acts of nature beyond their control. Or maybe the fault of those nasty Yurpeans, in the case of our Galtian Overlords. But they run the damn world and they should take some responsibility, or just go Galt already and let someone else run the world for a change.