Rock on.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Growth
It really is the new thing for certain cities which experienced population declines for decades. Population ticked up just a bit for the first time in decades in this urban hellhole. For so long so much policy has been about attracting (or trying to) business and tourists, while largely being blissfully unaware that people actually live in these places. I don't expect Philly's population to boom in the near future, but the decline has stopped and it'll probably grow a wee bit.
All Better Now
No jobs report tomorrow. It'll be out next Friday. No crystal ball, but I'm guessing we'll just continue to slip sideways. I used to root for bad news. Not actual bad news, just the worst possible measurement of it, in hopes that bad news might spur the people who rule us to do something about it. And, yes, the Fed has done stuff through the ineffective banking channel. Probably better than nothing, but unless they fire up the helicopters there isn't much they can achieve.
Even if B. Barry Bamz was our benevolent dictator, and didn't have to worry about those pesky congresscritters, I'm not sure anything would spur action. High unemployment is the new normal.
Even if B. Barry Bamz was our benevolent dictator, and didn't have to worry about those pesky congresscritters, I'm not sure anything would spur action. High unemployment is the new normal.
Booby
Not that there have been many occasions of it, but I've had communications people be much bigger jerks than this to me.
Don't Be Racist Assholes
I'm pretty fortunate in that I have a mostly well-behaved comments section with a reasonable amount of peer pressure helping to keep it that way, but, yes, even liberals can be giant fucking assholes sometimes.
Efficiency Wages
I don't have kids. If I did I'm pretty sure I'd want the people who taught and were responsible for taking care of my kids for much of the year to be reasonably happy and content in their jobs. Decent pay, respect, and job security aren't sufficient conditions for guaranteeing that good people are encouraged to go into the teaching profession, but they're certainly necessary conditions.
Also, too, be nice to the wait staff or they'll spit in your food.
Also, too, be nice to the wait staff or they'll spit in your food.
The GOP Does Not Want Black People to Vote
The Republican Party does not want black people to vote.
Everybody knows this. So let's say it:
The Republican Party does not want black people to vote.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Price of Entry
Left the house for the first time since I was sick (not quite true, but almost). Overheard some younger people talking about their financial issues. One woman was discussing her need to save $3000 before her lease is up in a couple of months so she could get a new apartment. First, last, deposit.
Life's expensive.
Life's expensive.
No Jobs, No Money
We are ruled by people who think $250,000 annual income means you're poor, but the minimum wage is too high and the olds have it too good.
Some Good News
It's really hard to imagine many circumstances in which spending a lot of money to lock kids up is better than spending a lot of money for other kinds of interventions. So it's good news that, for whatever reasons, the juvenile detention rate is down.
Austerity
It didn't have to be this way. The people who rule us have determined that what they desire is widespread economic suffering.
Interesting
If I'm making the right inference here this could be quite interesting.
I interpret that as instead of requiring a debit card, their card will be a debit card. And they'll take checks, essentially creating a bank/debit card account for people who don't have one.
Deon said the new brand-name smart card will be a godsend to SEPTA's riders, including those who don't use banks. "Why should they pay $900 a year in fees at check-chasing trailers?" he said, when they can directly deposit their checks into the new smart cards and pay all their bills without exorbitant fees.
I interpret that as instead of requiring a debit card, their card will be a debit card. And they'll take checks, essentially creating a bank/debit card account for people who don't have one.
Mysteries
One strange thing about the past few years is how off their game the Right has been in messaging and communications. Obviously they get a tremendous amount of lift from various news outlets, but it still mostly falls flat. They used to be good at this stuff.
Repeal
CPC is on board. Actually, their People's Budget deserves some exposure. But not in this (now global) Village,
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Late To The Party
Chait's always a couple years behind.
But, yes, Republicans care about cutting taxes for rich people over everything else. It's why there (hopefully) can't be a stupid grand bargain. They aren't willing to trade the thing they care about most for stuff they don't care much about.
But, yes, Republicans care about cutting taxes for rich people over everything else. It's why there (hopefully) can't be a stupid grand bargain. They aren't willing to trade the thing they care about most for stuff they don't care much about.
I Admit I Thought It Was Funny
But also completely horrible and wrong. The thing is that it's about a 9-year-old girl, and the twitter feed of America's Finest News Source is very public thing. If someone making funnies at a private Oscar watching party had said it, or if a comedian had set it up appropriately at a club ("After 3 hours of watching E! coverage of the red carpet, I half expected one of them to call Quvenzhané Wallis a..."), it wouldn't have been a horrible crime. But twitter is very public and often lacks any context. Whatever the intention, it was just a bad idea. She's a kid.
Must Protect The Children From A Man In A Dress
Martha Graham Cracker is a great performer, as is her alter ego, the actor Dito Van Reigersberg. It's interesting that someone in drag scares the school here, while in the UK the kids grow up with cross-dressing watching Panto musicals at Christmastime.
Revel Hell
I suppose if you're a rich person surrounded by rich people it's rather obvious that there's a very large supply of 21-35 year olds with immense amounts of money they can just light on fire.
Except there isn't.
Except there isn't.
Austerity Forever
Things are really the same here and in the UK. Dems and Labour are, for whatever reason, unable to make the case that what we need to do is spend a bunch of money to fix things. All political parties have bought into the "deficit is the worst thing ever" frame, as their populations continue to suffer.
Maddening.
Maddening.
Monday, February 25, 2013
People Will Run
I find the idea that everyone would just sit out the Dem primary if Clinton runs to be absurd. It's possible no one runs with any genuine hope or expectation of winning, but it's a way to enhance your national stature, meet important (rich) people, create donor networks, etc. Someone will want some media exposure.
If Any Cure Will Do, What Problem Are You Trying To Solve?
If your issue is the deficit, the sequestration will work just fine. If you have other issues, what are they? Apparently "arbitrary cuts would hurt the economy" but non-arbitrary cuts wouldn't? What?
If people worried about the deficit think the sequestration is a crisis greater than the deficit...then why? I have no idea.
If people worried about the deficit think the sequestration is a crisis greater than the deficit...then why? I have no idea.
Blackface
I get that it's possible for, say, dumb college kids to dress in blackface costume without realizing that they were being monstrous racist assholes (depending on what else is part of the costume), but how can you be an established educated adult operating in this universe and not have an awareness that the basic rule of thumb is: blackface is racist. It's racist if you're using it to mock racial stereotypes, but it's also intrinsically racist due to its history in minstrel shows. Blackface: don't do it.
Somebody On The Internet Is Wrong
Yes there's the general everything-not-New-York is kabumfuck attitude here, but also just wrongness.
Philly barely has anything resembling "big-box" restaurants, whatever that is. If the city is known for anything, restaurant-wise, it's for little tiny BYOBs with under 30 seats. That's both due to our stupid liquor laws (liquor licenses are expensive and hard to get) and the existing architectural stock most places.
In Philly, there are those huge, big-box restaurants. But you're going to be around 50 seats, right?
Philly barely has anything resembling "big-box" restaurants, whatever that is. If the city is known for anything, restaurant-wise, it's for little tiny BYOBs with under 30 seats. That's both due to our stupid liquor laws (liquor licenses are expensive and hard to get) and the existing architectural stock most places.
Just Repeal It
Again we're at that point when Congress has taken itself hostage and is threatening to shoot the country. There's no need for the sequestration. There's no need for any deal. There's certainly no need for austerity of any sort right now. We need the opposite.
Every time we reach this moment there's a sudden realization that contractionary policy is contractionary. Sure there might be better contractionary policy than the haphazard sequestration cuts, but it's still contractionary.
And expansionary policy would be expansionary.
Every time we reach this moment there's a sudden realization that contractionary policy is contractionary. Sure there might be better contractionary policy than the haphazard sequestration cuts, but it's still contractionary.
And expansionary policy would be expansionary.
Proved Fucking Right
It was of course absurd all along that the primary stated goal of the idiot Osborne was to make the ratings agencies happy. Whatever the actual goals (presumably extracting all income and wealth and giving it to rich people), lowering unemployment and welfare-enhancing economic growth should at least be the stated ones.
But in failure, he still succeeds. He's proved fucking right, just like Judith Miller.
But in failure, he still succeeds. He's proved fucking right, just like Judith Miller.
Nice Things
My occasional suggestion that Very Serious Liberals embrace nice things when our government suggests spending money on them, even if those nice things seem to be too expensive or if there's some other better nice thing that should be created instead. We spend an immense amount of money on hideous not nice things that don't even work. It probably shouldn't cost $10 billion to build a couple of tunnels to Manhattan, or $80 billion to build HSR in California, but at least those are nice things that might actually work.
The Disastrous Status Quo, The Last Crazy Guy, Or The New Crazy Guy
The status quo is very serious, of course, but also a disaster. What to root for in Italy?
Rights
You know, if I ran the ACLU, I'd find me a third generation Coptic Egyptian who would sue for his second amendment right to acquire Stinger surface to air missiles.
And I'd go, state by state, and sue for the right to have concealed carry/open carry regulations apply to all citizens attending legislative sessions, committee hearings, office meetings with officials and local legislative offices.
And I'd go, state by state, and sue for the right to have concealed carry/open carry regulations apply to all citizens attending legislative sessions, committee hearings, office meetings with officials and local legislative offices.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Madness
Good luck, UK...
The right mix of tax cuts/spending cuts could actually be mildly stimulative, though I doubt that's the mix the Tories have in mind. Tax cuts for rich people, blood-letting from the poors.
An influential group of Conservative backbenchers is planning to use the downgrade to mount a major push for further tax and spending cuts in next month’s Budget, arguing this is the only way to stimulate the economy.
...
David Ruffley, a leading member of the group, said: “Some of us would like him to cut public spending even more in order to fund tax cuts to inject a fiscal stimulus into the UK economy at the Budget.”
The right mix of tax cuts/spending cuts could actually be mildly stimulative, though I doubt that's the mix the Tories have in mind. Tax cuts for rich people, blood-letting from the poors.
Sunday In Hell With Pareene
Poor thing actually watched the Sunday shows.
Somewhat wonderfully, the discussion of Steven Brill’s giant TIME piece on healthcare costs turned into a fairly explicit endorsement of lowering the Medicare eligibility age — even dedicated “entitlement” foe Stephen Rattner unexpectedly endorsed this proposal! — which leads Stephanopoulos to point out that by the same logic we should just have single-payer healthcare. (Oddly Brill’s actual article rejects price-controls and single-payer as solutions but when he was just talking about it extemporaneously everyone seemed to grok that those were the only coherent solutions to the problem.) Oh hey guys, you have all just discovered all the ancient arguments for single-payer that left-liberals have been making since forever, congrats. By tomorrow you will all return to demanding that the Medicare eligibility age be raised in the name of fiscal responsibility but for now, let’s enjoy this moment.
Really Bad Ideas
There's nothing wrong with allowing bank cards as a payment option for transit, but it shouldn't be the only card option. Frankly I don't want a subway turnstile to have access to my bank account. I want a separate card that I can keep track of. Also, too, not everyone has a bank account, particularly in the population of people who ride mass transit.
Philly's only "increasingly contactless" in the sense that supposedly a system is on its way. Still using tokens here.
At an authority committee meeting last month, officials suggested that a single unfortunate bet had disrupted the project: While other transit agencies invested in contactless payment systems that they would construct themselves, the authority had hoped to evade the burden and cost of building its own. So the agency planned to replace MetroCards with riders’ own contactless bank cards, embedded with computer chips to facilitate fare payment without a swipe.
But banks did not issue the cards widely enough in recent years, officials said, scuttling a plan to introduce a new system as early as 2012.
The setback has placed New York City behind the pace of increasingly contactless transit systems in cities like Chicago and even Philadelphia — where tokens have long been prevalent — burdening an already aging system with a fare card that officials say costs too much and does too little.
Philly's only "increasingly contactless" in the sense that supposedly a system is on its way. Still using tokens here.
Sports Betting
Not something I think is especially important, but sports betting (match fixing potential aside) seems like much more of a healthy form of gambling than most casino gambling. It doesn't have nearly as much of a potential for that addictive make a bet every few seconds high that people seem to get from slots or table games. There's a big delay between the placing of the best and the results. Obviously people can still destroy their fortunes and lives doing it, but we happily let them do that at other casino games.
Macro and Micro
We're committed to austerity, it seems, and the Keynesian impacts of that are rather obvious. It'll be a further drag on the economy. There are distributional impacts of recession, of course, with those with greater wealth (especially) and better education less affected than those without. There are also the direct impacts of the cuts themselves, hitting government workers, necessary government functions, and of course needed government programs. Going forward the best we can hope for, apparently, is less bad austerity. But austerity it is!
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Obama Administration: Defense of Marriage Act is Unconstitutional
BRIEF FOR THE UNITED STATES ON THE MERITS
Marriage is, of course, a vitally important institution, and one supported by the federal government through benefits and other programs that rely on marital status. An interest in preserving marriage as limited to heterosexual persons, however, does not justify Section 3. Tradition, no matter how long established, cannot by itself justify a discriminatory law under equal protection principles.
- Culture of Truth
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Vatican Coverage
It'll be interesting to see how much coverage this gets. If true, or close to true, it's, you know, a big fucking deal for all kinds of reasons. I don't personally care much about the corruption stuff. Big corrupt institution, blah blah blah. Not so surprising. It isn't exactly surprising that there are some non-celibate gay priests (and non-celibate priests, period). But if the basic allegations are correct, this deserves more than just the tiptoeing around it that is the US media's normal approach to the pope and the Vatican. Whatever else the church gets up to, being anti-gay has been pretty high up on the agenda lately.
Saturday Crass Commercialism
Oscars edition!
Personally didn't see many movies this year. There are movie theaters in the urban hellhole, but they're all just a little bit inconvenient to get to for some reason. Les Miserables was the only best picture nominee I saw.
All the kids seem to think Argo will win.
Personally didn't see many movies this year. There are movie theaters in the urban hellhole, but they're all just a little bit inconvenient to get to for some reason. Les Miserables was the only best picture nominee I saw.
All the kids seem to think Argo will win.
Contractionary Policy Is Contractionary
The loss of welfare inflicted on their populations by those who rule Europe and the US is tremendous, and completely counterproductive given the stated goals of those rulers. The way to reduce deficits is to increase economic growth. The way to encourage growth, when below full employment, is to print free money and spend a lot of money. The actions of our Fed have been ineffective because they've relied on the banking channel even though quite obviously our financial sector is completely screwed up. My preferred policies would be free money for everyone combined with Fed-financed infrastructure spending. Free money freaks people out, but that's what "quantitive easing" means. Magic money creation! There's an opportunity for a free lunch and we left it on the table.
Even those who get there's a problem usually can't bring themselves to the obvious solutions.
There's no need for widespread economic misery. It isn't as bad here and in the UK as it is in Spain and Greece, which are just being destroyed, but it's much worse than it should be.
Even those who get there's a problem usually can't bring themselves to the obvious solutions.
Moody's recognises that Britain's economic travails stem from depressed growth, but its analysis seems incapable of progressing on from there. Taken as a whole, the agency is saying, with a straight face, that "Britain's attempts to cut its debt have harmed its attempts to cut its debt, and this could harm its attempts to cut its debt", and it sees nothing problematic with that.
There's no need for widespread economic misery. It isn't as bad here and in the UK as it is in Spain and Greece, which are just being destroyed, but it's much worse than it should be.
The Green Lantern Theory Of Economic Recovery
I do not miss that word "resolve."
Gideon:
Gideon:
Far from weakening our resolve to deliver our economic recovery plan, this decision redoubles it.
Austerity Bites
Often "austerity" and the "need" for budget cuts are just excuses to kicks the poors and olds and ram through whatever horrible agenda you wanted to ram through in the first place. But I think the simpleton Gideon Osborne really believes it. He likes kicking the olds and the poors too, but he'll nonetheless be proved fucking right.
Except he won't.
And for some reason Labour is unwilling to just say Shit Is Fucked Up And Bullshit, austerity bites, and we gotta step on the gas.
Except he won't.
And for some reason Labour is unwilling to just say Shit Is Fucked Up And Bullshit, austerity bites, and we gotta step on the gas.
Oops
Screenshot at 6:55. Yes I am awake.
Click to embiggen. Blogger's messing with their image processing system.
Click to embiggen. Blogger's messing with their image processing system.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Stark Reminder
I don't care what the ratings agencies think about anything, but if it's a stark reminder of anything it's a stark reminder that you're the stupidest fucking person on the face of the planet.
Needless to say, the plan to destroy the country will continue.
George Osborne says decision is 'stark reminder of the debt problems facing our country'
George Osborne has insisted Britain will not "run away" from its problems after Moody's downgraded the country's AAA credit rating.
The chancellor said the coalition was determined to stick by its plan for economic recovery after the rating was lowered by a notch to AA1.
Needless to say, the plan to destroy the country will continue.
Happy Hour
Echidne on Dr. Dominic Pedulla and why we should pay attention. I really don't think people pay enough attention to the fact that financial health, for women, is intrinsically associated with reproductive health. The two just can't be separated.
Austerity
We're currently debating how, not whether. I don't have a fancy economic model in front of me, but I don't think this barely recovered economy can take the hit.
Policy!
I get a bit excited when they actually decide to run on a set of policies, effectively nationalizing the House elections, in part because I think it actually works.
Credit Where Credit Is Due
Solitary confinement is torture and we should end it.
Eastern State Penitentiary is worth a visit if you're ever in Philly. It's a museum now.
It was built with good intentions. A more humane prison, where prisoners could reflect on their crimes. And then all the prisoners would lose their minds.
Two centuries ago, solitary confinement was considered a humane reform, promoting reflection, repentance — penitence; hence penitentiaries — and rehabilitation. Quakerism influenced the design of Philadelphia’s Eastern State Penitentiary, which opened in 1829 with a regime of strict solitude. In 1842, Charles Dickens visited it:
“I hold this slow and daily tampering with the mysteries of the brain, to be immeasurably worse than any torture of the body: and because its ghastly signs and tokens are not so palpable to the eye and sense of touch as scars upon the flesh; because its wounds are not upon the surface, and it extorts few cries that human ears can hear; therefore I the more denounce it, as a secret punishment which slumbering humanity is not roused up to stay.”
Eastern State Penitentiary is worth a visit if you're ever in Philly. It's a museum now.
It was built with good intentions. A more humane prison, where prisoners could reflect on their crimes. And then all the prisoners would lose their minds.
Fortunately There's A Policy For That
I'm sure more austerity will fix this.
BRUSSELS — The European Commission delivered a bleak assessment Friday of Europe’s economic prospects, saying that growth would be just 0.1 percent in the 27-nation European Union in 2013 and that the 17-nation euro zone would shrink 0.3 percent over the same period.
Flu Day 4
I don't post that to complain. As illnesses go it hasn't been so bad. But it has come with serious fatigue, and it's hard to blog while napping.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Pretty Easy
I imagine it's pretty damn easy to spend $100 billion. Maybe Japan doesn't need any more roads and supertrains. Fine. Build hospitals and assisted living centers.
The Palin Era
It will be difficult to explain to future generations, assuming they aren't all under water.
Timing
People underestimate how much their timing, beyond their control, impacts their future career success.
And I'm not sure why there's all this talk about how everyone needs to go into science or engineering. Jobs ain't there, either.
And I'm not sure why there's all this talk about how everyone needs to go into science or engineering. Jobs ain't there, either.
Tomorrow, Tomorrow
The sun'll come out tomorrow
So you got to hang on till tomorrow, came what may!
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love you, tomorrow
You're always four years away...
So you got to hang on till tomorrow, came what may!
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I love you, tomorrow
You're always four years away...
Evil Or Stupid
I suppose we'll never know the answer, but was leaving "creating jobs" or "improving economy" off of the list of options done deliberately or done because the people commissioning the poll are idiots.
Four Options
Of course people chose the option they think is most related to the economy.
"Give us some fucking jobs" was not one of the options.
"Give us some fucking jobs" was not one of the options.
Sick Days
I rarely (past performance is no guarantee of future returns) get sick, so I don't actually know how to behave if I do. But "lying on the couch" is presumably a better strategy than "staring at the computer" so more shitty blogging today. My mostly symptomless flu or whatever (fatigue, chills, mild stomach cramps) is adding more symptoms.
Just Stop
I'm sure slinging cappuccinos is preferable to some other similarly paid jobs, but don't glamorize it. People just don't have any goddamn jobs or money.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Easier Scam Than Ever
It'd never occurred to me that the rise of online courses would make the professional college athlete scam even easier.
And to be clear, the scammers are the university, the athletic department, and the team. The students are the ones being scammed. Sure a few will go pro and get some compensation then, but not most of them.
And to be clear, the scammers are the university, the athletic department, and the team. The students are the ones being scammed. Sure a few will go pro and get some compensation then, but not most of them.
Or Maybe Never?
As always, the pre-negotiation. If you want it to take 13 years (minimum) for people to become citizens, you announce 8, let Rubio demand 20, and then settle somewhere in the middle. Start with 13, and the right wing position is pushed to "never."
Getting It Wrong
It's hard to see how this planned dorm wouldn't improve all of the things the opposing residents say they care about. It would reduce the number of commuters. It would reduce the number of students housed in the surrounding neighborhood. Sure it wouldn't magically solve all traffic, noise, and parking problems, but it would be an improvement.
The Things That Matter
Apparently the things that matter are golfing with Tiger and whatever the McCain-Graham assignment desk hands down to the cool kids at Politico.
There's mass economic suffering in this country and no one cares. Sure there's always mass suffering in this country, and no one cares, but there's quite a bit more of it now.
There's mass economic suffering in this country and no one cares. Sure there's always mass suffering in this country, and no one cares, but there's quite a bit more of it now.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Trust Us, We're Experts. Yes, The Dog Too
Modern interpretations of
the Fourth Amendment have led to some very interesting decisions and
perhaps unexpected application of those decisions (recitation of
Miranda rights, search incident to arrest, "grabbable area." ) Then there are the "canine sniff" cases,
arising out of the increasing use of dogs to demonstrate probable
cause in order to conduct a search that would otherwise not be permitted. A frustrated police officer wishing to conduct a
search of a car, for example, can apply to a federal judge for a search warrant, or
call in a K-9 unit and the dog, if it "alerts," in essence, gives permission to
search. Surprising no one, the Supreme Court unanimously upheld the practice.
In this case, the dog
had a history of false alerts with this defendant. This might seem to be a problem, but not to worry. Since he alerted, he must be right.
A well-trained drug-detection dog should alert to such odors; his response to them might appear a mistake, but in fact is not. See n. 2.
Note 2: ...when a detector dog responds and no drug or explosive is found, do not assume the dog has made an error.
By Culture of TruthFor that reason, evidence of a dog’s satisfactory performance in a certification or training program can itself provide sufficient reason to trust his alert. If a bona fide organization has certified a dog after testing his reliability in a controlled setting, a court can presume (subject to any conflicting evidence offered) that the dog’s alert provides probable cause to search.
Strike
Doing what they can.
(Reuters) - Greek workers walk off the job on Wednesday in a nationwide anti-austerity strike that will disrupt transport, shut public schools and tax offices and leave hospitals working with emergency staff.
Golfing With Tiger
No, being blocked from covering that is not a particularly valid reason to complain about lack of access.
How about standing up for whistleblowers and the reporters they leak to?
How about standing up for whistleblowers and the reporters they leak to?
Nothing To Say
No sleep and feeling crappy not conducive to quality blogging. Apologies for things being extra sucky over the last few days. I think I am going to attempt a nap, but I usually fail at those.
Monday, February 18, 2013
Rage Against The Machine
Watching a bit of Maddow's Iraq war doc on MSNBC. Not sure how long I'll last.
The enraging thing is that it was all transparent bullshit at the time. They gaslighted the nation.
The enraging thing is that it was all transparent bullshit at the time. They gaslighted the nation.
Where Are You From
I moved around a lot as a kid (Australia, Switzerland, several US states), so I never had any strong sense of having a "hometown." The facebook thingy keeps suggesting I add my "hometown" which is apparently a distinct place from where I live. Do most people have a sense of having a hometown?
Presidents' Day Crass Commercialism
Easiest way to support the blog is to click on an amazon link (below, right or left) before buying crap you were going to buy anyway.
I believe the traditional Presidents' Day celebration involves buying a mattress.
I believe the traditional Presidents' Day celebration involves buying a mattress.
Sunday, February 17, 2013
Deadly Weapons
If I remember correctly, the first time I went driving with my newly acquired license (post-learner's permit) I just about bit it. Well, more likely, my passenger just about bit it. I probably would have been fine. Made a left without taking note of the oncoming traffic.
This isn't in any way an anti-car rant. Cars are useful things! But we do, I think, tend to brush aside the fact that cars are dangerous and lots of people die because of them.
This isn't in any way an anti-car rant. Cars are useful things! But we do, I think, tend to brush aside the fact that cars are dangerous and lots of people die because of them.
The Poorest Country In The World
I continue to be amazed at the general belief that the supposed greatest country in the world can't possibly afford any nice things for its people.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Guns Kill People
I have no idea if this was a domestic dispute gone really bad or a tragic mistake, but either way if there was no gun in the place there most likely wouldn't be a dead person.
I'm sure most of us have experienced a couple of bouts of extreme rage in our lives, rage which overrides our good sense completely. Drugs and alcohol can play a role here, of course. Those events don't always lead to violence, but they can. Some people internalize their rage, some lash out. Even when they do lead to violence, most of us just aren't capable of killing someone absent access to a deadly weapon.
Even if this was a tragic mistake, you really shouldn't be shooting at an "intruder" unless you have good reason to believe your life is being threatened.
I'm sure most of us have experienced a couple of bouts of extreme rage in our lives, rage which overrides our good sense completely. Drugs and alcohol can play a role here, of course. Those events don't always lead to violence, but they can. Some people internalize their rage, some lash out. Even when they do lead to violence, most of us just aren't capable of killing someone absent access to a deadly weapon.
Even if this was a tragic mistake, you really shouldn't be shooting at an "intruder" unless you have good reason to believe your life is being threatened.
Crazies
The idea that the (soon to be former) Pope will face any kind of justice system, whether he deserves to or not, is pretty absurd, but keep on keeping on...
Those crazy rape victims...
Benedict is currently not named specifically in any other case. The Vatican does not expect any more but is not ruling out the possibility.
"(If he lived anywhere else) then we might have those crazies who are filing lawsuits, or some magistrate might arrest him like other (former) heads of state have been for alleged acts while he was head of state," one source said.
Those crazy rape victims...
Shit Is Still Fucked Up And Bullshit
The rich are taking everything.
WASHINGTON — Incomes rose more than 11 percent for the top 1 percent of earners during the economic recovery, but not at all for everybody else, according to new data.
Friday, February 15, 2013
The Waltons Will Always Be Rich
But eventually they might figure out that if their potential customers have no money, their business has a bit of a problem.
Human Welfare Is Irrelevant
The debt fetishists like Scarborough don't care about the real world consequences of their desired policies. It's all aesthetic, all a morality play. Who cares if people have jobs? Other people,anyway.
Indeed
And Hemmer was a star of the "liberal" CNN for years.
Things have shifted a bit since, but I understand that for years news execs truly believed that Fox leaned right, CNN leaned left, and MSNBC tried to aim itself at the 5 supposedly moderate Republicans left in the country. Truly bizarre.
Things have shifted a bit since, but I understand that for years news execs truly believed that Fox leaned right, CNN leaned left, and MSNBC tried to aim itself at the 5 supposedly moderate Republicans left in the country. Truly bizarre.
Drawing The Fox Crowd
It isn't exactly what this producer is talking about, but it was fascinating when CNN made a bid to be the Tea Party Network.
Not Just The Kids
I briefly made this point, as I tend to briefly make all my points, but universal pre-k isn't just about helping the children and their future selves.
I honestly have no idea how two worker families with children manage. Of course one worker families with children have a hard time managing for different reasons. But the lack of affordable childcare, school hours/days which don't match work times, ratcheted up expectations about 24/7 helicopter parenting... Obviously pre-K doesn't solve all of these problems, but hopefully it will provide a bit of relief for parents.
I honestly have no idea how two worker families with children manage. Of course one worker families with children have a hard time managing for different reasons. But the lack of affordable childcare, school hours/days which don't match work times, ratcheted up expectations about 24/7 helicopter parenting... Obviously pre-K doesn't solve all of these problems, but hopefully it will provide a bit of relief for parents.
Good morning, Friday!
And here are a few links I found trawling about:
Taibbi in Rolling Stone: "Gangster Bankers: Too Big to Jail"
Dday in Salon: "Wall Street wins again" - the "Taksforce" was a sick joke.
Alan Barlow in Mother Jones:: "How the NRA Hobbled the ATF" "In effect, the FBI is required to destroy evidence of a crime."
Thursday, February 14, 2013
SMASH
No idea what will happen, but CW thinks the sequestration is going to happen. I don't think it's because of some grand negotiating strategy by House republicans, I just think the teabaggers need to smash a few things and get it out of their system.
Nominal Illusion
I do think the olds seriously suffer from it. They remember when they earned $18K a year and that was A LOT OF MONEY and hear that some lucky youngs today manage to get a starting salary of $40K and that's BIG BIG BIG MONEY. But it's not.
More Nice Things
Some of the More Serious liberalish people have a weird approach to thinking about things. Actually don't really know David Leonhardt's political views, and he's reporter so in theory he doesn't have any, but he probably leans a bit our way. He tweeted this:
It goes on to link to a Jon Chait post about how we could pay for pre-k by switching to chained CPI.
As a thought exercise, it's fine. But I regularly see these false choices being set up. Awhile back Yglesias was saying that liberals should support closing libraries and giving the saved money to poor people. The thing is, I actually agree with both of these points. If I was your benevolent dictator, and had a fixed pot of money to spend on liberal nice things, I'd probably redirect some money for old people to money for young people, and would reduce spending on "programs," including libraries, in favor of just transferring money to poor people.
But these are false choices. These are not deals that are on the table. There is no fixed pot of money for liberal nice things. I'm pretty sure it would be a much better investment to take the F-35 money and spend it on pre-K. Hell, it'd probably be a better "investment" from a national security view to spend less money on flying death robots and spend it on genuine humanitarian aid (I imagine the paint on all those schools is peeling about now).
It's one thing to consider these deals if they're actually on the table, but it's another thing for liberals to negotiate with an imaginary Republican party that does not exist. Sure it can be a useful thought exercise, but it's politically meaningless.
Seems clear that shifting some money from SocSec to preK would lead to faster econ growth.
It goes on to link to a Jon Chait post about how we could pay for pre-k by switching to chained CPI.
As a thought exercise, it's fine. But I regularly see these false choices being set up. Awhile back Yglesias was saying that liberals should support closing libraries and giving the saved money to poor people. The thing is, I actually agree with both of these points. If I was your benevolent dictator, and had a fixed pot of money to spend on liberal nice things, I'd probably redirect some money for old people to money for young people, and would reduce spending on "programs," including libraries, in favor of just transferring money to poor people.
But these are false choices. These are not deals that are on the table. There is no fixed pot of money for liberal nice things. I'm pretty sure it would be a much better investment to take the F-35 money and spend it on pre-K. Hell, it'd probably be a better "investment" from a national security view to spend less money on flying death robots and spend it on genuine humanitarian aid (I imagine the paint on all those schools is peeling about now).
It's one thing to consider these deals if they're actually on the table, but it's another thing for liberals to negotiate with an imaginary Republican party that does not exist. Sure it can be a useful thought exercise, but it's politically meaningless.
Stop Means-Testing Everything
People care about high marginal tax rates except the high marginal tax rates faced by a lot of not-so-well-off people. When you start clawing back deductions and tax credits and add additional means testing to programs, you make the effective marginal tax rate for people, over some range of income, very high.
Universal pre-k should be universal and universally free.
Universal pre-k should be universal and universally free.
Motive
If Tesla is accurate in its criticisms of the NYT reporter...I really just wonder what the motive of the journalist is/was.
Fortunately There's A Policy For That
More human sacrifices should do the trick.
The European Union statistics agency Eurostat said the economy across the 17-nation shared-currency bloc shrank 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012, coming in below analysts’ expectations of a 0.4% decline.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
How About 2000 Apartment Units Instead?
I don't know Paoli well enough (been a long time since I was there), but the madness of the park-n-ride model is on display here. Cars take up a lot of space, and parking garages are very expensive.
Republicans Don't Care About Cutting Social Security
The big flaw in the premise of the grand bargain is that Obama is asking them to give away their precious by increasing taxes on the rich in exchange for something they don't care much about. Cutting taxes for rich people is their whole purpose. Cutting Social Security? Well, if they can use Social Security cuts to cut taxes for rich people, sure. But cutting Social Security in order to increase taxes on rich people? Really not interested.
Tax Policy Is The Only Policy
"Broaden the base, lower the rates" isn't necessarily a bad idea, except for the fact that basically the only way we do meaningful policy is through our tax code. All of those deductions and credits will reappear quickly. It's how we do things.
Monoposny In Motion
The simple Econ 101 week 2 view of the minimum wage is that it will decrease employment. But the more complicated (and sensible) view of it is that the impact on employment is pretty ambiguous. Labor markets aren't perfectly competitive for a variety of reasons. Most employers have some monopsony power. To the extent that they do, small increases in the minimum age are unlikely to impact employment levels.
Universal Pre-K
I support taxing the hell out of me and everybody else to make this happen. I don't claim deep knowledge about the research, other than that "pre-k is good and cost effective," but intuitively the benefits are pretty obvious. Whether you support the view of poor parents as being irresponsible unemployed drug addicts, or the view of poor parents as having insufficient time to nurture their children due to their attempts to make enough money by working 3 jobs, in both cases the issue is that poor parents are failing to provide time, attention, and education for their kids.
It's a low cost way to dramatically improve human welfare of the parents and the kids. Do it.
It's a low cost way to dramatically improve human welfare of the parents and the kids. Do it.
$9
I read the speech about 5 minutes before Obama gave it. The big actual news was the support for the minimum wage hike. The big interesting part of that was the plan to index it to inflation in law.
This is one of those issues where Dem politicians are generally incompetent. Raising the minimum wage is popular. It drives voter turnout if you put it on ballot initiatives. There are a lot of popular and good things Dems fail to support sufficiently. We can discuss why. There are a variety of reasons, some rational, some not.
There are a lot of ways to alleviate poverty. Increasing the minimum wage a bit is one way. Just giving money to poor people, through an improved EITC type program is another. I'm enough of an economist to support the latter, but enough of an activist to understand what's more possible. Giving free money to poor people isn't very popular, even when tied to work. Increasing the minimum wage is.
This is one of those issues where Dem politicians are generally incompetent. Raising the minimum wage is popular. It drives voter turnout if you put it on ballot initiatives. There are a lot of popular and good things Dems fail to support sufficiently. We can discuss why. There are a variety of reasons, some rational, some not.
There are a lot of ways to alleviate poverty. Increasing the minimum wage a bit is one way. Just giving money to poor people, through an improved EITC type program is another. I'm enough of an economist to support the latter, but enough of an activist to understand what's more possible. Giving free money to poor people isn't very popular, even when tied to work. Increasing the minimum wage is.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
More Thread
Universal pre-K is good. I support paying taxes for all kinds of things that are unlikely to benefit me directly. Maybe we can get free whiskey day for non-breeders?
Welcome To The Club
A mostly serious person decides it's time for Ben (and his counterparts) to fire up the helicopter engines.
I haven't really looked for it, but I hope one day some smart economists look at the distributional impact of the specifics of Fed quantitative easing in the age of the great recession. I'm guessing it made rich people a lot richer. All things considered I favored more fed action, but there was always another way. Fed-financed government spending and free money for all.
First, it is impossible to justify the conventional view that fiat money should operate almost exclusively via today’s system of private borrowing and lending. Why should state-created currency be predominantly employed to back the money created by banks as a byproduct of often irresponsible lending? Why is it good to support the leveraging of private property, but not the supply of public infrastructure? I fail to see any moral force to the idea that fiat money should only promote private, not public, spending.
I haven't really looked for it, but I hope one day some smart economists look at the distributional impact of the specifics of Fed quantitative easing in the age of the great recession. I'm guessing it made rich people a lot richer. All things considered I favored more fed action, but there was always another way. Fed-financed government spending and free money for all.
Emperor LaHood
One wouldn't have expected the Republican dude from Peoria to be transit-friendly, but, like most places, once upon a time Peoria had a significant rail system. And LaHood remembered.
Not Everything Is A Commodity
I don't think Matt's wrong about the basic logic of securitization, but the problem is that not everything is a commodity, and that securitization can severely misalign the incentives between owners and managers.
Wheat (at least, mass produced industrial farming wheat) is a commodity, but individual farmers are not. Even if we accept that, yes, houses are sort of commodities (I don't), property management companies are not. And it's really difficult to imagine that appropriate contracts and be written and enforced between the owners of slices of property rental streams and those tasked with managing those properties. This was much more likely to work with mortgages than rental income streams, as homeowners have an incentive to maintain their properties, but renters don't and property managers probably don't.
Wheat (at least, mass produced industrial farming wheat) is a commodity, but individual farmers are not. Even if we accept that, yes, houses are sort of commodities (I don't), property management companies are not. And it's really difficult to imagine that appropriate contracts and be written and enforced between the owners of slices of property rental streams and those tasked with managing those properties. This was much more likely to work with mortgages than rental income streams, as homeowners have an incentive to maintain their properties, but renters don't and property managers probably don't.
SOTU Drinking Game
your take a sip words:
balanced
bi-partisan
reform(ing)
responsible
serious
challenges
entitlements
modest
if you hear "chained CPI" you can guzzle a bottle of vodka and go punch a hippie.
balanced
bi-partisan
reform(ing)
responsible
serious
challenges
entitlements
modest
if you hear "chained CPI" you can guzzle a bottle of vodka and go punch a hippie.
Slumlords
I don't think we quite know where this is going yet - I'm not optimistic! - but dday takes a look at your new Wall Street landlords.
The State Of The Union Is Derp
The best we can hope for is some ideas for smart government spending, but what we really need is more spending.
Contractionary policy is contractionary. Just ask the UK.
Contractionary policy is contractionary. Just ask the UK.
Austerity
It's here. Good luck everybody!
In more "normal" times the Fed could accommodate this by cutting interest rates. But now they can't.
If the mild recovery starts going in the other direction, we'll know why.
In more "normal" times the Fed could accommodate this by cutting interest rates. But now they can't.
If the mild recovery starts going in the other direction, we'll know why.
All Human Knowledge Contained In A Device In Your Pocket
The thing is, once upon a time it might have taken a bit of work to actually look up these silly things called 'facts.' That it took a little work doesn't/didn't excuse the failure to do so by a person who is very highly paid to, in theory, inform viewers of true things. But now it doesn't take more than minor powers of google-fu to look up just about anything.
Native
I saw a lot of this when I was in Gullyvornia, and found it weird. I think it is more a western state thing, though admittedly there's some of it in killadelphia, too (but the city, not the state).
Monday, February 11, 2013
Maybe Somebody Should Do Something
There's no chance of more stimulus, as all of the Very Serious People agree that Teh Deficit must go down and any spending must be "paid for." One hopes the animal spirits do their magic, otherwise...
The Political Possibilities
I know that we're not going to increase Social Security benefits this year, or next year, or the next. Probably they'll be cut. Heck, maybe a cut will spur some positive action (and, no, I'm not using that possibility to support a cut). But I would like to see a few candidates out there telling seniors that it's time to raise their benefits. That might actually be popular.
Wang Dang
I'm not sure exactly how Ted Nugent became an important political figure in this country, but the other day CNN was convinced that I needed to be informed of his latest pronouncements. Conservatives can say anything.
Bring Back Earmarks
Maybe we could get more transportation funding if members knew they could put some nice things in their districts.
Polite Society
I actually appreciate that Oregon allows properly permitted owners to carry them into the state Capitol. If that's the gun society lawmakers want, they should experience it. And no I don't mean experience gun violence, just the joys of having people wander around with guns.
Pope'd
I guess caring about who is the next Pope is a bit like caring about who is the next Prime Minister of Spain. Isn't my leader, but is a leader with nontrivial power in the world. I remember last time thinking that there was some small chance that change would lead to some positive steps. But then they chose this one, and...
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Maybe The Evils Of Rent Control?
Krugman makes a wry joke here:
I can't speak about the younger generation of The Econ, but when I was still among them economists spent a reasonable amount of time teaching their students about the evils of policies that barely existed anymore. On the whole, academic economists are probably more liberal than people think (understandably because the public face of academic economists isn't very liberal), but the things "everybody" agreed about were things like free trade good, rent control bad, etc.
But now that protectionism is a trivial issue, what will economists inveigh against?
I can't speak about the younger generation of The Econ, but when I was still among them economists spent a reasonable amount of time teaching their students about the evils of policies that barely existed anymore. On the whole, academic economists are probably more liberal than people think (understandably because the public face of academic economists isn't very liberal), but the things "everybody" agreed about were things like free trade good, rent control bad, etc.
Villagers
There's always a hipster coolcat Daddy-o Republican, hep to the ways of the younger people, and a Real American manly man's man to boot.
Tupac died 17 years ago. Being impressed that Rubio is aware of him is like being impressed if Ronald Reagan, in 1980, had heard of Patsy Cline, who died in 1963.
Tupac died 17 years ago. Being impressed that Rubio is aware of him is like being impressed if Ronald Reagan, in 1980, had heard of Patsy Cline, who died in 1963.
Austerity Forever
Once again we're faced with serious deficit reduction in current law, and once again all of the Very Serious People are against it.
Because they don't really care about the deficit.
Because they don't really care about the deficit.
HOA Hell
I'm always amused that conservatives tend to side with the petty tyranny of the HOAs because, you know, they're "private entities."
Why I'm On This Social Security Kick
At the conference I intended, I was completely dumbstruck by the fact that even though there was general agreement that the 401K system has failed a generation (at least), no one thought there was any way to help that generation. I'm not saying that no one wanted to raise Social Security benefits, I'm jut saying that no one thought it possible. The options on the table were all about various add-ons and tweaks that could, maybe, make it somewhat more likely that the current cohort of 20somethings who can't get jobs with benefits and are drowning in student debt will save money for their retirement.
We have a problem now. Also, too, in the future.
We have a problem now. Also, too, in the future.
Saturday, February 09, 2013
Threads Elsewhere
I'm always struck by the people who are just like "well I had a high paying job and was lucky in life and saved a bunch of money so this is awesome because it's awesome for me."
The point is that ultimately, as a society, we've generally decided that there's a limit to how far we'll let 70-year-olds fall. We set up a system which involved favorable tax treatment for employer-based (and employee contributed to) retirement savings, the idea being that this system, plus social security, would let people retire in relative comfort and with reasonable economic security. We're now seeing the result of that experiment, and it's a failure for most people.
Some lucky winners won! hurrah for them. I'm sure it was all their own doing. They built that!
The point is that ultimately, as a society, we've generally decided that there's a limit to how far we'll let 70-year-olds fall. We set up a system which involved favorable tax treatment for employer-based (and employee contributed to) retirement savings, the idea being that this system, plus social security, would let people retire in relative comfort and with reasonable economic security. We're now seeing the result of that experiment, and it's a failure for most people.
Some lucky winners won! hurrah for them. I'm sure it was all their own doing. They built that!
Happy, Happy
Here's Echidne on the thugs refusal to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act. Whenever I hear a rationalization that some awful deed must be done to save "women and children" I figure we're well and truly fucked. This brouhaha completely justifies my gut reaction. We are well and truly fucked while these guys have any power.
Groundhog Day
One year ago.
Today.
And then we can get back to talking about Teh Deficit.
President Barack Obama offered a glimpse into his State of the Union speech in his weekly address released Saturday, making clear that – as expected – his focus will be on the economy.
Today.
Obama to refocus on economy in State of the Union
And then we can get back to talking about Teh Deficit.
So you'll forget what a monopoly is?
The game is called "Monopoly", not "Cute", so what is this about?
Friday, February 08, 2013
Battle
The tension right now is between continuing federal austerity, potential (just potential) mild relaxation of state and local austerity, and the forces that are fueling the too mild recovery.
Not sure what's going to win this one.
Not sure what's going to win this one.
Such A Great New Tradition
I wonder which networks will broadcast both Republican responses to the SOTU.
Serials
With reports that there might be 12 hundred parsecs of new Star Wars movies, instead of TV shows I hope they try my model of cranking out 3-4 movies per year. Can have the big tentpole ones come out every couple years, but then have the "side" flicks come out frequently.
Reuse sets, save on marketing, don't have to shut down and restart production....yes I know I know nothing about the economics of Hollywood. Still it makes sense to me!
Reuse sets, save on marketing, don't have to shut down and restart production....yes I know I know nothing about the economics of Hollywood. Still it makes sense to me!
The Employment Can
That's what we're really kicking down the road. Also, too, throwing millions under the bus. #makethebadmetaphorsstop
Austerity Forever
Right now we're basically debating how much austerity we should have.
Make it stop.
Make it stop.
Street Justice
This story is from yesterday but I was waiting for the details to come out more clearly. The cops just riddled a truck with bullets.
A 71-year-old woman delivering newspapers with her daughter remained in intensive care Thursday night after she was shot twice in the back by Los Angeles police detectives during a massive manhunt for a fugitive ex-LAPD officer, according to the womens' attorney.
...
The officers riddled the women's blue pickup with bullets in the 19500 block of Redbeam Avenue. Carranza was also hit, according to attorney Glen T. Jonas, and received stitches to a finger.
"The problem with the situation is it looked like the police had the goal of administering street justice and in so doing, didn't take the time to notice that these two older, small Latina women don't look like a large black man," Jonas said.
Thursday, February 07, 2013
Celebrities Are Made Of People
I don't have a problem with celebrities running for office. I think there's potentially good criticism to be made of mainstream media outlets who sometimes (not always) give too much promotion to such efforts because, you know, celebrity. But there's no reason to believe a famous actor is somehow necessarily inferior to, say, your local car dealer. And, frankly, being a senator isn't exactly a step up in the exciting department. If someone's genuinely into it, I've got nothing against it.
Sure it's NO FAIR that being famous gives you a leg up as it's no fair that being rich generally or being in a political dynasty does, but that's the way things work.
Until I have my hour long personal interview with Ms. Judd I won't be able to judge fully, but I'm reasonably sure the simple fact that she snogged Wesley Crusher makes her more qualified to be senator than Mitch McConnell. Because he's Mitch McConnell.
Industries Decline
For decades the popular - and largely true - view was that it was blue collar workers who faced decline. This allowed elites to have a certain snobbish take on it. Blue collar workers are uneducated, after all (that they might be un(formally)educated but highly skilled was not important). It'll be interesting to see the ongoing reactions as FIRE and Law disappear as paths to relative affluence.
USPS
I don't think ending Saturday service is the end of the world (nor do I think it should happen), but certainly ending the post office would be. Civilization as currently configured requires it. I can imagine creating a world that didn't require it, but we haven't done that and no one is trying to.
Wednesday, February 06, 2013
Gonna Blow A Gasket
Austerity is awesome! Austerity will kill us all!
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy could take a big hit from automatic government spending cuts even if Congress only leaves them in place for a month or two.
The Door Is Open
I think liberals have long been understandably afraid of cracking open the door to making any changes to Social Security, based on the idea that once you open the door who knows what will happen. But the door has already been opened. People need more benefits, not less. It's time to make the case.
Retirement Crisis
This got more pickup than my online columns usually do.
Anyway, I'm trying to make the point that we both have a crisis and a failed experiment. The crisis is that a bunch of people in and nearing retirement just don't have enough in retirement savings to supplement their meager Social Security benefits. At current returns, $120K in retirement savings buys you about a $650/month annuity. With a two earner household, both still living with median Social Security benefits, that gets you to $36K annual gross income. If you have a paid off house...I suppose you'll manage decently enough, but otherwise.
The failed experiment is that I cannot see plausibly how we can expect the situation to be any better for the current young people. They're starting their adult lives deep in debt already.
Fred Thompson to the rescue, I guess.
Anyway, I'm trying to make the point that we both have a crisis and a failed experiment. The crisis is that a bunch of people in and nearing retirement just don't have enough in retirement savings to supplement their meager Social Security benefits. At current returns, $120K in retirement savings buys you about a $650/month annuity. With a two earner household, both still living with median Social Security benefits, that gets you to $36K annual gross income. If you have a paid off house...I suppose you'll manage decently enough, but otherwise.
The failed experiment is that I cannot see plausibly how we can expect the situation to be any better for the current young people. They're starting their adult lives deep in debt already.
Fred Thompson to the rescue, I guess.
Extended
I do think that full employment, if we ever manage to achieve it, will ameliorate some of the long term impacts of the Great Recession. But policy-wise, I don't think there's much thinking about what to do about all of these people who have years of their prime working (prime networking, prime learning, prime experience-obtaining) age destroyed. There's a lag, as "staying in school" is one thing people do when there's a recession, but belief in obtaining a degree at any cost is going to waver. I'm not sure that even if we finally reach the other side that things will be quite the same.
Did The Right Thing
Nobody who rules this country has cared to come to terms with the consequences of The Great Recession. I don't think the economy should be such that it requires doing everything right to get by, but if you read the lawyer's story you do have an example of someone who seemingly did everything right, and is still totally screwed.
A lot of people are never going to recover. And we're talking about fucking deficits.
A lot of people are never going to recover. And we're talking about fucking deficits.
The Republican Agenda
I can't believe anyone is pretending to believe their 100th rebranding exercise. They care about cutting taxes on rich people, funneling money from poor and middle class people to rich people, and occasionally kicking the poors.
Tuesday, February 05, 2013
Opportunities
The maddening thing is that The Great Recession was (is) a mostly squandered tremendous opportunity. It is, actually, the "free lunch" moment in the economy. Treasury can borrow for nothing and spend it on useful things. The Fed could vastly improve human welfare by mailing everybody $10,000 checks (conceptually, if not legally).
All that works fine until it works, meaning you can do that stuff until you succeed in getting the economy going again. Inflation concerns, while greatly overblown, are real, and eventually you'll only be affecting the nominal economy, but for a time... free money and nice things for everybody!!!
Or not.
All that works fine until it works, meaning you can do that stuff until you succeed in getting the economy going again. Inflation concerns, while greatly overblown, are real, and eventually you'll only be affecting the nominal economy, but for a time... free money and nice things for everybody!!!
Or not.
If This, Then That
This is from Meet The Press two
Sundays ago, but they just put up the transcript, and it seemed worth
noting.
Noted economist and Village Elder Bob Woodward sums up
Beltway conventional wisdom, which is that if we cut entitlements and 'stabilize' the debt, it will lead to economic growth and and
lower unemployment.
Bob Woodward:
They are just saying, let’s fix a little bit on the entitlement front, and they’re not saying let’s start tomorrow cutting. They’re saying, let’s start in 5 years or 10 years. It is all doable and fixable.
And then this gets to the engine of the economy. And if you fix that, if you stabilize the debt in some reasonable way, we’re going to have growth. The unemployment rate should come down.
- Culture of Truth
Nobody There
Funny how fast we've gone from 'zomg if Kerry goes to State then Scott Brown will be senator for life!!!' to ... no Republicans are willing to run.
Credit Where Credit Is Due
David Cameron successfully pushed through marriage equality in the UK.
Now he can get back to his regularly scheduled programming of kicking the poors and destroying the economy.
...twitters now telling me that it isn't quite finished (not sure why? Lords maybe?) but it's basically expected to be a done deal.
Now he can get back to his regularly scheduled programming of kicking the poors and destroying the economy.
...twitters now telling me that it isn't quite finished (not sure why? Lords maybe?) but it's basically expected to be a done deal.
Huzzah!!!!
The CBO has announced that they predict that Teh Deficit is falling! Everybody cheer!!!
Also, too, unemployment will remain above 7.5% all year.
Only dirty hippie bloggers on the internetz will point out that these things are actually related.
Contractionary policy is contractionary.
Also, too, unemployment will remain above 7.5% all year.
Only dirty hippie bloggers on the internetz will point out that these things are actually related.
Contractionary policy is contractionary.
Not Much Difference
There really isn't much difference between the "crazy" Republicans that Karl Rove is going to waste money pretending to fight, and the supposedly sane ones. The crazy ones just let their freak fly a bit more openly, and the "base" loves that because they think all that crazy pisses off liberals.
Asshole
My governor just announced that he's rejected Medicare the Medicaid expansion.
Kicking the poors never gets old.
Kicking the poors never gets old.
Obvious
One of the things that continually freaks me out is how hard it is to implement obviously good public policy, and how equally hard it is to end obviously bad public policy. For instance, increasing Social Security benefits is obviously good public policy. But the Village won't even permit the discussion.
Monday, February 04, 2013
MOAAAAAAAAAAAAR SOCIAL SECURITY
My travel day last week was giving a little presentation at the National Press Club for the National Academy of Social Insurance. Everyone on the panel - including the conservative - agreed the the looming retirement crisis is fucked up and bullshit. Consensus was that increasing Social Security benefits was a nonstarter, so we must look elsewhere. The conservative (not sure he'd admit to wearing that hat, but he does wear a Heritage hat) had some good - if ultimately insufficient - ideas about how to improve our private savings regime. Ideas can be good yet still not very helpful. The more liberalish Serious person had some ideas for various add on schemes, though agreed with me that ultimately increasing Social Security was the best idea.
I, of course, was there to deliver the truth bomb - we need to increase Social Security benefits.
My new modest goal in life is to get this going. Liberal groups, people recruiting candidates, rich benevolent folks...it's time to turn the tide. This needs to be a key liberal position.
I, of course, was there to deliver the truth bomb - we need to increase Social Security benefits.
My new modest goal in life is to get this going. Liberal groups, people recruiting candidates, rich benevolent folks...it's time to turn the tide. This needs to be a key liberal position.
Is It Made Of Platinum Unicorns?
All for going after property tax deadbeats - a big problem in this city - but $25 million buys you a lot of computer these days...
Inter-Species Friendship
A cat and a squirrel were just hanging out on the back porch earlier. No tension. The kitty had no interest in killing Rocky. Seemed to like the company.
I have no idea what the squirrel was eating. I'd guess spaghetti sauce out of a ziplock bag.
I have no idea what the squirrel was eating. I'd guess spaghetti sauce out of a ziplock bag.
Shit Is Fucked Up And Bullshit
A few months ago I met a woman who told me she had about $150,000 in student loans from law school. Obviously this concept was not new to me, but meeting someone in person who was young, underemployed, and deeply in debt still had an impact on me. Such an "investment" at student loan rates might be worth it if you get that top New York law firm job and are on the fast track to partnership, but most people who "did the right thing" are fucked.
The Grifter Olympics
The funny thing about various Republican groups fighting each other is that they're really just fighting over money.
Neither team needs to win elections to get rich.
Neither team needs to win elections to get rich.
I Don't See This Ending Well
Happy for them to figure out how to manage a massive portfolio of single family home rentals. Just don't see it happening.
The firm’s unit that caters to individuals and families with more than $5 million, put client money in a partnership that bought more than 5,000 single family homes to rent in Florida, Arizona, Nevada and California, said David Lyon, a managing director and investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Investors can expect returns of as much as 8 percent annually from rental income as well as part of the profits when the homes are sold, he said.
Sunday, February 03, 2013
Congratulations Local Sports Franchise
Never quite been able to fully comprehend sports fandom. Have been caught up in it a bit myself, at times, but usually with a little distance. Not talking about the harmless fun aspect, but the deep emotional connection. Many people have it.
It Seems There is a Game On
Even I'm watching. 34 Baltimore, 29 San Fran. Eleven seconds to go. I guess it's over.
Screwed
The pain caucus, austerity freaks, fix the debt assholes, the Washington Post editorial board, etc... basically exist to scare politicians away from actually promising (and maybe even delivering) nice things to voters. One would think it'd be a nobrainer for politicians, especially in certain parts of the country, to campaign on an immediate across the board 20% increase in Social Security benefits. Some people completely screwed by the great recession could really use it.
Obsessive Hobbies
Lots of people are obsessed with a hobby to a degree which is borderline unhealthy. Borderline unhealthy doesn't mean unhealthy, but it does mean it's taken over your life to a significant degree. Some of us with those hobbies manage to convince ourselves that there's something unique, something special, and something truly important about that hobby. It's a way to justify the fact that, you know, it takes up a significant portion of our lives.
Gun nuttery is just a hobby like any other, except for the fact that it involves a killing machine.
Gun nuttery is just a hobby like any other, except for the fact that it involves a killing machine.
True Everywhere
Full "in-law suites" are impossible to build in most places. It isn't just a Jersey or Cherry Hill thing.
The New Deal
I'll admit that, for the most part, during the great and glorious benevolent rule of the Kenyan Muslim Socialist, I've been a bit unsure just what I should be advocating for.
I've found my groove. We need to increase Social Security Benefits. The Professional Left needs to sign on to this. All the oldsters need to vote for it. Congressional candidates need to get on board.
I've found my groove. We need to increase Social Security Benefits. The Professional Left needs to sign on to this. All the oldsters need to vote for it. Congressional candidates need to get on board.
Saturday, February 02, 2013
Saturday Evening
We're having chicken tikka masala, a salad and rice. Regrettably, no nan is available, but we will have an IPA or three with the meal.
The Times
Conflicted feelings about all of this. All college-aged kids are young and dumb (including those who get arrested for actual crimes and get locked up for a long time). Ivy League institutions get a ridiculous amount of press, to the detriment of the actual college experience for most people. I've taught in various colleges and I'm not actually sure where the hard line should be for this kind of thing. But, also, too, from what I can tell the students (mostly? all?) are going to be able to re-enroll at some point. Not sure what the point of any of it is.
Saturday Crass Commercialism
My copy of Kick-Ass did arrive, and I can re-confirm that it is the best superhero movie ever made. Certainly the best Batman movie ever made.
Increase Social Security
I've said it before, of course, but I really do think Teh Left needs to really start making increasing Social Security benefit a key goal. A lot of people are/are going to be completely fucked in retirement.
The Money Is Spent On Cash!!!
Truly weird people.
TANF benefits are basically...well, nothing. Nothing is something to families in poverty, but $300? Jeebus.
TANF benefits are basically...well, nothing. Nothing is something to families in poverty, but $300? Jeebus.
Friday, February 01, 2013
I Hate Pret
When I moved to London in 1998, there weren't decent places to get take out coffee. There was Pret, which hadn't yet mastered the art of lids for their take out coffee, and there was some Starbucks ripoff chain with a few locations that Starbucks eventually bought (now it's everywhere there as here), with even worse coffee than Starbucks. But getting a "take away" coffee without a lid. ugh.
Clinton
Obviously this is true of any time period to a great degree, but it really is impossible to explain to people just how nuts the political/media industrial complex was in the 90s if they weren't around or just not paying attention. It was a time when you could go on the teevee - night after night - and accuse the Clintons of literally anything and no one blinked. There were multiple investigations into whether Hillary Clinton had somebody killed. And all of this stuff wasn't just emanating from what we think of as right wing media, though that was on the rise, it was the New York Times and Washington Post and the major broadcast news companies.
So, yes, it's weird seeing Hillary Clinton being respected (some) by Republicans and generally being treated with respect. Times have changed.
I like Hillary Clinton. I worried a bit about some of the idiots she has surrounded herself with. But happy for her to run.
So, yes, it's weird seeing Hillary Clinton being respected (some) by Republicans and generally being treated with respect. Times have changed.
I like Hillary Clinton. I worried a bit about some of the idiots she has surrounded herself with. But happy for her to run.
Heckuva Job
This thing will never succeed even if it does get built.
“We’re going to get American Dream going, and we’re going to get it going in January,” Christie said during the December rally in Aberdeen, just after winning the union’s endorsement in his bid for reelection.
But, once again, the page has turned on the calendar without a restart of the long-delayed entertainment and retail project that has sat dormant at the Meadowlands Sports Complex since 2009.
Contractionary Policy Is Still Contractionary
I guess the question is whether this deficit madness will ever end. I'm sure there are spending cuts and tax increases I'd be fine with... in normal times. But we aren't in normal times. We're in a period of high unemployment. Both spending cuts and tax increases are contractionary. Cutting the deficit is contractionary.
Asshole
I really have no patience for over-aggressive super-speeding drivers. Honestly, just what is the hurry?
It's one thing to speed a bit on the open highway. Given that everybody does speed it's probably safer to drive with traffic. But 25 mph zones are usually not compatible with going 100.
MERCHANTVILLE, N.J. - February 1, 2013 (WPVI) -- A mother and daughter from Camden County are dead after the minivan they were in was hit by an SUV travelling at speeds up to 100 mph, the prosecutor's office said.
...
The Durango, driven by a 31-year-old man, was travelling up to 100 mph in a 25 mph zone, the prosecutor's office said.
It's one thing to speed a bit on the open highway. Given that everybody does speed it's probably safer to drive with traffic. But 25 mph zones are usually not compatible with going 100.
Shovel Ready
I know I've said this many times, but the easiest bit of stimulus in the world would be grants to basically every municipality to let them replace their water pipes.
Foxy
One thing about Fox is that they don't get the respect from other journalists that they used to. Sure many will still invoke the false equivalence FoxAndMSNBCArePartisan, but for years other journalists felt obligated to treat the "fair and balanced" nonsense seriously.
As for MSNBC, well, it's conservative in the morning, DC CW throughout most of the day, and pro-Obama liberal at night. Not the same.
As for MSNBC, well, it's conservative in the morning, DC CW throughout most of the day, and pro-Obama liberal at night. Not the same.
I Really Think So
Just a reminder that these jobs numbers aren't nearly good enough. At this rate we'll reach full employment 14 years after the start of the great recession.
Lost decade and then some.
Lost decade and then some.
Jobs
+157K is ok, but not good enough. Some previous month upward revisions which were good. Unemployment st 7.9%.
And on and on.
And on and on.
Security
The defense budget dramatically understates national security costs.
That pretty much all-in cost almost equals the $1.6 trillion expected to be raised through the individual federal income tax in fiscal 2013, as shown in Table S-5 of the proposed White House budget.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)