Saturday, March 30, 2013
Peak Commute
I'm skeptical that driverless cars will ever (in my lifetime) work as proponents imagine, but I also don't see how they help the peak commute problem. You still need a lot of vehicles.
Cheating
Seems like pretty harsh involvement of law enforcement.
Those test scores brought her fame — in 2009, the American Association of School Administrators named her superintendent of the year and Arne Duncan, the secretary of education, hosted her at the White House.
And fortune — she earned more than $500,000 in performance bonuses while superintendent.
On Friday, prosecutors essentially said it really was too good to be true. Dr. Hall and the 34 teachers, principals and administrators “conspired to either cheat, conceal cheating or retaliate against whistle-blowers in an effort to bolster C.R.C.T. scores for the benefit of financial rewards associated with high test scores,” the indictment said, referring to the state’s Criterion-Referenced Competency Test.
Friday, March 29, 2013
Hard To Believe Now, But What About Then?
Obviously the "shocker" of this graph is that there wasn't a majority of people willing to tell pollsters that they approved of interracial marriages until the mid-90s. This is surprising now. It was surprising to me in the early aughts when I first became aware of this. What I'm not sure of is whether I would've been surprised by this in the early 90s. I don't remember.
Roads Are Free
This might be a perfectly good project for all I know (or not), but the important point is that road construction projects never get the kind of public scrutiny that mass transit projects do.
Being A Rich Heir Is Stressful
And the NYT is ONIT!!!
It was not until Mr. Lucas was 24 — long after he knew the trust could finance his Ivy League education — that he understood its full monetary value; that was when the Carnation shares were converted into cash after Nestlé bought the company in 1985. It was a shock, suddenly “having a pile of cash that you have no experience in investing,” he said. “That’s a very scary and risk-fraught transition.”
For many American families with wealth, the moment when their children learn how much money they have at their disposal causes profound anxiety. They fear that their children will not know what to do with the money and either squander it or not work as hard as they might otherwise.
The Bees Come Down
I have no deep thoughts on this, but we should probably figure out what's killing the bees.
Choices
I think it was actually the Fonzie of Freedom who wrote an article several years ago admitting that he liked New York City more than North Dakota.
The point isn't that everyone should or does prefer New York City, the point is that if you're a self-described libertarian who does, you need to think hard about exactly what kind of world you prefer and why. Dense highly populated cities are, by necessity, going to have all kinds of regulations. Also, too, massive public transit system.
The point isn't that everyone should or does prefer New York City, the point is that if you're a self-described libertarian who does, you need to think hard about exactly what kind of world you prefer and why. Dense highly populated cities are, by necessity, going to have all kinds of regulations. Also, too, massive public transit system.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
So Far, So Fast
It's useful to occasionally re-run historical Gallup polling on opinions about interracial marriage.
The speed of changing opinion on gay marriage seems miraculous compared to that.
The speed of changing opinion on gay marriage seems miraculous compared to that.
Churches Won't Have To Gay Marry Anybody
I haven't figured out if conservatives actually believe in this "threat to religious freedom" nonsense with respect to gay marriage. Churches won't be obligated to perform marriage rites for anybody if they don't want to, and frankly I'm fine with that. It's just a ritual. While pastors have this weird state blessing for the performing of this ritual, it's still just a ritual. It isn't needed for anybody to get married.
Quotas
They may not be appropriate or practical everywhere, but for things like "people talking about stuff on the teevee" or "people writing op-eds in the newspaper" there's really no reason that setting goals for diversity and meeting them is inappropriate.
Turnover
One thing I've always wondered is whether the corporate bean counters at places like Wal-Mart factor in costs of labor turnover when calculating labor costs. If store managers are encouraged to minimize labor costs, does that formula include all of the implicit and explicit costs of turnover and recruitment?
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Indeed
Onion:
Somewhat related, I'm always highly amused (read: fucking annoyed) at increased security proposals for rail mass transit systems. At the two Dem conventions I attended, they shut down the subway and light rail systems for security reasons. One can blow up a train and inflict reasonable amount of damage, but that's pretty hard to do. Anyone can weaponize a bus. Just, you know, start driving it into people and things.
WASHINGTON—Citing that a majority of Americans are irresponsible, easily distracted people who have little regard for other human beings, a new Department of Transportation report revealed Wednesday that it’s “actually kind of crazy” that U.S. citizens are allowed to drive automobiles. “Americans make millions of mind-boggling, idiotic mistakes every day, and when taking into consideration the sheer amount of lives that could be lost due to just the slightest human error while driving, it’s actually pretty goddamn shocking that we let citizens operate 4,000-pound machines capable of going 200 mph,” the report read in part, later adding that if one truly thinks about who their neighbors, friends, and children are as people, the absolute last thing one would be comfortable with would be them merging onto a busy highway with cars traveling 85 mph.
Somewhat related, I'm always highly amused (read: fucking annoyed) at increased security proposals for rail mass transit systems. At the two Dem conventions I attended, they shut down the subway and light rail systems for security reasons. One can blow up a train and inflict reasonable amount of damage, but that's pretty hard to do. Anyone can weaponize a bus. Just, you know, start driving it into people and things.
Good Luck With That
Though, seriously, good luck.
Amtrak, the U.S. intercity passenger railroad supported by taxpayers, asked Congress to more than double its capital budget so it can buy more trains and improve infrastructure.
Amtrak, in a letter today to Vice President Joe Biden and House Speaker John Boehner, asked for $2.1 billion in U.S. funds for its capital budget and $212 million for debt service for the 2014 fiscal year. In the 2013 fiscal year, Amtrak is receiving $905 million for those expenses.
Oldsters Is Old
Carl Newman, who fronts the New Pornographers, tweeted this:
I replied.
Obviously the big takeaway is holy crap I'm old (I was born 9 years after Please Please Me, but still), but I think there's a broader point about us olds not getting just how distant stuff is for The Kids Today. More than that, I also think there was a kind of continuity between people born, roughly, from the beginning of WWII until about 1993. The discontinuity here is the internet, a society transforming technology change.
I probably started listening to The Beatles (aside from randomly hearing them on the radio) in 1986 or so, when I was 14. Some 14 year old kid today listening to The Beatles would be equivalent to my 1986 self getting into music from 1939 or so. Those "old movies" weren't actually all that old, some of them anyway, when I was a teenager, but I sure did think they were old, even movies from the 70s! Imagine what they look like to The Kids Today. Probably every action/horror/mystery/thriller movie fails the "cell phone plausibility test," in that if characters had cell phones the entire plot would be ludicrous.
Anyway, point is the kids don't live in the world of oldsters. Oldsters is old.
Still rockin'.
The distance in time between '77 punk and right now is the same as the distance between '77 Punk and the attack on Pearl Harbor.
I replied.
@ACNewman distance between now and Please Please Me is same as distance between 1963 and Archduke Ferdinand being alive
Obviously the big takeaway is holy crap I'm old (I was born 9 years after Please Please Me, but still), but I think there's a broader point about us olds not getting just how distant stuff is for The Kids Today. More than that, I also think there was a kind of continuity between people born, roughly, from the beginning of WWII until about 1993. The discontinuity here is the internet, a society transforming technology change.
I probably started listening to The Beatles (aside from randomly hearing them on the radio) in 1986 or so, when I was 14. Some 14 year old kid today listening to The Beatles would be equivalent to my 1986 self getting into music from 1939 or so. Those "old movies" weren't actually all that old, some of them anyway, when I was a teenager, but I sure did think they were old, even movies from the 70s! Imagine what they look like to The Kids Today. Probably every action/horror/mystery/thriller movie fails the "cell phone plausibility test," in that if characters had cell phones the entire plot would be ludicrous.
Anyway, point is the kids don't live in the world of oldsters. Oldsters is old.
Still rockin'.
White House Tours And Private Planes
I'm obviously a bit pessimistic about the economy, but aside from the macro impact it's important to remember that people on the margins are going to be destroyed.
And the only (if unlikely) way out of the sequester is the "Grand Bargain."
If only politicians were concerned with actual problems.
And the only (if unlikely) way out of the sequester is the "Grand Bargain."
If only politicians were concerned with actual problems.
Rewarding Good Behavior
Good for Sherrod Brown.
Something that Dems have too often failed to understand is that most persuadable voters don't actually care that much about most policy issues, except for some single issue voters. More than that, everybody "knows" Dems are pro-mandatory gay abortions, so running from those issues doesn't actually help you. Persuadable voters like politicians they perceive as standing up for what they believe, politicians with "principles," etc. Better to vote for the mandatory gay abortions than to be perceived as being a coward.
Something that Dems have too often failed to understand is that most persuadable voters don't actually care that much about most policy issues, except for some single issue voters. More than that, everybody "knows" Dems are pro-mandatory gay abortions, so running from those issues doesn't actually help you. Persuadable voters like politicians they perceive as standing up for what they believe, politicians with "principles," etc. Better to vote for the mandatory gay abortions than to be perceived as being a coward.
DOMA
According to Scotus-watchers, odds are that it will be killed. Hopefully they are correct!
The 90s really sucked, politically.
The 90s really sucked, politically.
Twins, Drinking
Today, I would also pretty much ignore the Bush twins drinking at 19 story. Way back then we were still in the Monica Madness era, when family values trumped everything, and everything personal was both fair game and completely told us everything we need to know about politicians. Democratic ones, anyway. Focusing on a story like that was just playing that game.
Leadership
Progress is good, but it is a bit gross watching the falling dominoes of Dem senators suddenly discovering that God or Jesus or whoever is actually ok with marriage equality after all now that it's cool.
A few months ago they could have done so and been heroes, now they just look silly.
A few months ago they could have done so and been heroes, now they just look silly.
Earmarks
Sequestration panic is a reminder that one possible route to getting more stimulus would have been earmarks. Promise people nice things for their districts.
Instead it's all about Teh Deficit.
Instead it's all about Teh Deficit.
Awkward Position
Those poor regulators, maybe finding some reasons to do their jobs. So awkward.
The mortgage errors, while by themselves relatively minor, have heightened concerns within JPMorgan because they come on top of the other investigations. The increased scrutiny presents a challenge for the bank and its influential chief executive, Jamie Dimon, who was widely praised for steering JPMorgan through the 2008 financial crisis, leaving it in far better shape than its rivals. Among some executives at the bank, the worry is that the unwanted attention will undercut Mr. Dimon’s authority in Washington.
“Jamie and other executives feel terrible that the bank’s self-inflicted mistakes have put regulators in an awkward position,” Mr. Evangelisti said. He added, “We are wholly to blame for our errors and are fully cooperating with all authorities to make things right.”
Mr. Dimon has already testified before Congress and apologized for the trading losses. In response to last year’s trading blowup, the bank has also worked to root out the problems, shuffled its top executives, bolstered its risk controls and brought in a new head of compliance.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Fabulous
One's experience with this stuff is highly dependent on precisely when (and to a lesser extent, where) one grew up, but when I grew up gay people didn't exist, God had delivered a plague to kill them all, and being gay was the worst possible thing ever. No those things don't make any consistent sense, I'm just trying to deliver up the messages the culture had delivered to my 13-year-old brain. There was a plague. Gay people were almost entirely nonexistent in mainstream popular culture. And being gay was the worst possible thing you could be.
I'm not even sure where I heard that last message. It was certainly true, and everyone knew it. But I actually have no clue where it came from. The nonexistence of gay people to young teenage me is hard to square with the being gay is the worst thing ever message I received. Still I received it.
Things change.
I'm not even sure where I heard that last message. It was certainly true, and everyone knew it. But I actually have no clue where it came from. The nonexistence of gay people to young teenage me is hard to square with the being gay is the worst thing ever message I received. Still I received it.
Things change.
Out
I hope this NFL player does come out, and hope he has a sense that, in 2013, the support will probably overwhelm the backlash. I can't know that for sure, and certainly can't know how it will impact his career overall, but for enough of us it would make him a hero. I imagine he'll find a way to make a living.
Diapers
Many years after Monica Madness, I'm back in the "don't give a shit about the personal lives of politicians" camp.* After they opened that door, for awhile I thought everything was fair game for Republicans. But that era is, for a moment, over, and I'm happy to not care except in cases of gross hypocrisy. If you're anti-gay, your gay sex is relevant, for example.
But there's one thing that's been bugging me for years. We all sort of accept that David Vitter's prostitution issue involved diapers. And, frankly, so what. But the only source for this I've ever seen was James Carville. Did the diaper thing get sourced anywhere else?
I honestly don't care about the diapers. I'm just curious about the sourcing.
*Yes the illegality of prostitution makes it a legitimate issue over and above simply being a personal life issue.
But there's one thing that's been bugging me for years. We all sort of accept that David Vitter's prostitution issue involved diapers. And, frankly, so what. But the only source for this I've ever seen was James Carville. Did the diaper thing get sourced anywhere else?
I honestly don't care about the diapers. I'm just curious about the sourcing.
*Yes the illegality of prostitution makes it a legitimate issue over and above simply being a personal life issue.
One Step Away
Most of the country is one spell of unemployment or bad health event away from worrying about being homeless. Absent unions, a culture of long term employment, or a stronger safety net, the only thing which can really save us is consistent full employment. But we have a Federal Reserve that's less than thrilled about achieving that, concerned more with absurdly low inflation.
Why Would He Care
I mean, who knows what Rusty really thinks about anything, but - and this applies to most people - why would he care if gay people can marry each other? I get why abortion opponents care about abortion. If you think something is murder, it makes sense to oppose it. But why do marriage equality opponents care about it? I mean, as with most subjects, you can have an opinion on something without caring much about it. Whatever you might think about it, however you might vote on it, how can so many people be involved in an anti-same sex marriage movement? It's so weird.
Supremo Week
Prop H8 today, DOMA tomorrow. DOMA's the more important one, but I imagine they'll be decided similarly.
Monday, March 25, 2013
Monday Evening
Cats extra annoying lately. One managed to trap himself in the shower in the middle of the night. The other has decided that poking me with his claw is a perfectly acceptable way for him to wake me up in the morning.
Mattress
I do not think the people who run the world have any idea what they're doing.
Basically just encouraging bank runs, if not now then at the first hint of trouble.
Heckuva job.
Basically just encouraging bank runs, if not now then at the first hint of trouble.
Heckuva job.
Depression
One might not necessarily weep for all big businesses, but if operating accounts are raided then bills don't get paid, including payroll.
Suddenly nobody has any money.
Suddenly nobody has any money.
Not Sure How They Recover
It's important to remember that "rich depositors" aren't just Russian billionaires or similar, they're the operating accounts of businesses.
Gonna hurt.
Gonna hurt.
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Long Hard Slog
The Dark Knight Rises was pretty crappy, (though The Dark Knight Returns was really good). Still they set up a Nightwing movie, and they should make it. Just better.
What's The Solution
Al Neuharth isn't wrong, but he's a rich guy who doesn't really ever have to drive if he doesn't want to. With an aging population, the elderly driver issue will increasingly be an issue, but what's the solution? So many people live in places where there just aren't other options, aside from paratransit services. And those are expensive to provide.
I really don't know what the solution is. As the suburban population ages this is increasingly going to become an issue. Mobility issues aren't the same for all elderly people. Some can walk, but shouldn't drive. Some can happily ride the bus, some have mobility issues that might prevent even that. But lots of people live in areas where driving is the only option, and taxis aren't part of the driving options.
I really don't know what the solution is. As the suburban population ages this is increasingly going to become an issue. Mobility issues aren't the same for all elderly people. Some can walk, but shouldn't drive. Some can happily ride the bus, some have mobility issues that might prevent even that. But lots of people live in areas where driving is the only option, and taxis aren't part of the driving options.
Good For Him
I don't think all jocks are meatheads, but the public personas of most NFL players usually don't suggest "enlightened smart person." So good for Scott Fujita.
(via)
(via)
Priorities
Of all of the horrible indignities air travelers face, having to turn your ipad off for 15 minutes really doesn't top the list.
Feelings
First the White House Tours, then the decorative plane flying stuff. Oh the humanity!!!!!!!!
But this is likely to be the last appearance by the Thunderbirds until the end of the federal government’s fiscal year on Sept. 30, if not longer. A performance this weekend by the Navy and Marine Corps’ Blue Angels near Key West, Fla., will also be their last for some time. The Army’s parachute demonstration team, the Golden Knights, is also suspending performances.
TPP
I realized that I wasn't clear yesterday about the enormity of the TPP (AFAWCT). It's not like the WTO enforcing " "anti-dumping" rules, or setting limits on tariffs.
Angry Bear via Yves Smith
This isn't a deregulatory, or, FTM, a free trade regime. The most favorable regulatory environment for "non-Party" and "Party" investors applies. That is, a loose regulatory regime for fracking, but a strong regulatory regime for copyright or patents. Mickey is protected from infringement everywhere, because the US protects him, and drug manufacturers in India are forbidden to produce compounds that cure the sick without a patent license.
It's worth noting that "intellectual property" was a key reason for the failure of the Doha round....
Article 12.4: National Treatment1. Each Party shall accord to investors of another Party treatment no less favourable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to its own investors with respect to the establishment, acquisition, expansion, management, conduct, operation, and sale or other disposition of investments in its territory.
2. Each Party shall accord to covered investments treatment no less favourable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to investments in its territory of its own investors with respect to the establishment, acquisition, expansion, management, conduct, operation, and sale or other disposition of investments.
The treatment to be accorded by a Party under paragraphs 1 and 2 means, with respect to a regional level of government, treatment no less favourable than the most favourable treatment accorded, in like circumstances, by that regional level of government to investors, and to investments of investors, of the Party of which it forms a part.]Article 12.5: Most-Favoured Nation Treatment
1. Each Party shall accord to investors of another Party treatment no less favourable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to investors of any other Party or of any non-Party with respect to the establishment, acquisition, expansion, management, conduct, operation, and sale or other disposition of investments in its territory.
2. Each Party shall accord to covered investments treatment no less favourable than that it accords, in like circumstances, to investments in its territory of investors of any other Party or of any non-Party with respect to the establishment, acquisition, expansion, management, conduct, operation, and sale or other disposition of investments.
Angry Bear via Yves Smith
This isn't a deregulatory, or, FTM, a free trade regime. The most favorable regulatory environment for "non-Party" and "Party" investors applies. That is, a loose regulatory regime for fracking, but a strong regulatory regime for copyright or patents. Mickey is protected from infringement everywhere, because the US protects him, and drug manufacturers in India are forbidden to produce compounds that cure the sick without a patent license.
It's worth noting that "intellectual property" was a key reason for the failure of the Doha round....
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