Thursday, December 31, 2015

2016 Already?

Not quite in this time zone, but soon enough. 2015 was a weird year for me, though mostly good weird. But, wow, 2016 man, we're living in the freaking future.

Lunch thread

Still traveling, or maybe untraveling.

Cosby

No deep thoughts, but if pattern of allegations is true then the guy was a serial predator for decades. (Innocent until proven guilty under our legal system. The court of public opinion is not our legal system.)

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Meanwhile, in the Races


Which Republican candidate will drop out nextCould Trump become the next president of the United States?

Travel Day

So this sucky blog is going to be about as sucky as it gets.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

License To Kill

If it's just s.o.p. for cops, then something is very wrong.

I've written a few times that once upon a time the great myth of the 80s/90s cop drama was the all powerful Internal Affairs. Sometimes IA were the good guys, nailing corrupt cops. Sometimes they were the bad guys, stopping cops who did what needed to be done to stop the bad guys. But whatever the storyline, Internal Affairs was SUPER POWERFUL. They would destroy your life and career as a cop if they got into your shit.

hahahahahahaahahahahaha

The Displacement Problem

A problem with gentrification-led involuntary displacement is that it makes being poor even more unaffordable by pricing people out of areas where there's at least semi-decent public transit available.

In my urban hellhole there's a lot of talk of gentrification and displacement. I think it's somewhat overblown, which is not to say it doesn't happen at all, just that to a great degree if your apartment becomes unaffordable then if you move 5 blocks in some direction it's affordable. But if trends continue for several more years, poorer people might be forced out of transit rich neighborhoods. Cars are expensive.

Time To Get A Passport

It's hard to imagine people from so many states being essentially blocked from flying, but if flying is something you need to do, might be time to consider getting that passport if you don't have one.

Evening Thread

Don't enjoy. Be mad.

Open Carry Of AK-47s For White People, Execution By Cop For Black Kids Carrying Toy Guns

That's what gun nuts support. Put a few black guys in camo or hoodies and have them walk down the street with guns, legally, in an open carry state, and they'll be gunned down in minutes. Gun nut patriots will say they deserved it, because their mere existence constituted a threat, unlike good white guys with guns.

We Will Increase The Number of Substitutes By Paying Them Less

And giving the rest to a private company, of course.

I think it's cute that anybody pretends that the plan was supposed to succeed.

Maybe Another 28 Friedmans

That'll probably take care of it.
In private, top Afghan and American officials have begun to voice increasingly grim assessments of the resurgent Taliban threat, most notably in a previously undisclosed transcript of a late-October meeting of the Afghan National Security Council.

“We have not met the people’s expectations. We haven’t delivered,” Abdullah Abdullah, the country’s chief executive, told the high-level gathering. “Our forces lack discipline. They lack rotation opportunities. We haven’t taken care of our own policemen and soldiers. They continue to absorb enormous casualties.”

Arming and training. Arming and training. Arming and training. Arming and training.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Birthright Citizenship

One reason it's the only sensible and humane way to approach the issue.

Shit Is Fucked Up And Bullshit

Make a large neighborhood unlivable, and, well, bygones.

I know, don't read the comments, but I guess I will never stop being surprised by the number of people in this country who truly believe that anything bad that happens is the victim's fault.

Just Add Gasoline

Where did all of those weapons come from. Such a mystery.
WASHINGTON — Foreign arms sales by the United States jumped by almost $10 billion in 2014, about 35 percent, even as the global weapons market remained flat and competition among suppliers increased, a new congressional study has found.

Feeling The Webbmentum

A lonely nation cries out for his leadership.
Webb Attacks Clinton With Eye on Independent Run
If he declared an outsider presidential bid, the former Democratic candidate could have an outsize effect on the race.

Or, you know, not.

Happy hols

I thought the Christmas ep of Doctor Who could have been better written, y'know?

Watched Peter & Wendy and was tearing up almost from the beginning.

And, of course, I ate too much.

It was after midnight before I finally got around to putting up what used to be the Christmas post, but was reduced to just a quick list of the traditional links and a bunch of political stuff with a bit of other froth, but of course, there is music, too. Anyway, it'll give you something to read while waiting to either hide from drunks or be one of them on New Year's Eve.

Saturday, December 26, 2015

All Boxed Out

Very busy weekend for me, for mostly obvious reasons. Holidaying is hard work....

I Can See An Empty Bank Account From My Window

Not mine, for once.
With oil prices down along with oil production, the state is facing an Alaska-size shortfall: Two-thirds of the revenue needed to cover this year’s $5.2 billion state budget cannot be collected.

Many Alaskans are not old enough to recall times this bad. This is the nation’s least-taxed state, where oil royalties and energy taxes once paid for 90 percent of state functions. Oil money was so plentiful that residents received annual dividend checks from a state savings fund that could total more than $8,000 for a family of four — arriving each autumn, as predictable as the first snowfall.


Why Aren't You Laughing, Citizen

It's a secret weapon!!!



Press coverage of Republicans is so sycophantic.

The Day After

Otherwise known as Boxing Day, or holy shit, I can't believe how much I ate and drank yesterday.

Friday, December 25, 2015

Evening Thread

Gotta get down on Christmas.

Heckuva Job

If we just deport a few more people...

Do They Even Live In This World

Regarding Mona Charen's comments about being shocked to discover that Christians, instead of being home praying on Christmas Eve, were actually outside of their houses... it's been like that as long as I can remember. Sure, traditions vary, and some people do the big family dinner thing on Christmas Eve instead of on Christmas Day, but Christmas Eve has long been a "party the night before the holiday" for those inclined to do such things. And if you are going to cook a big meal the next day, you might just want to go out for dinner the night before.

And as for Christmas itself...Well, open presents, early meal, and then... it's movie time! Gotta do something before you start fighting with the in-laws.

I've spent a couple Xmases in England, where it's (hard to believe) a bigger deal than in the US. They shut down the tube/bus network in London so mostly people don't go out. But they do open the champagne at around 10 AM as it's perhaps the biggest piss-up of the year. Holidays are supposed to be fun!

As Roy says, why don't you know what your friends do for the holidays? Strange people.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Life

I don't think enough people have enough empathy to comprehend what it means to deport somebody. You're severing them from their familial ties, their economic opportunities, their entire life. Imagine you've been somewhere for 10 years, and suddenly they put you on a plane and dump you off in what is notionally your "home" but which probably no longer is.

I think I worked illegally somewhere once. I never quite figured it out. Bureaucracy is messy. I'm a person from a relatively privileged background and existence, but if suddenly they had said "uh, sorry, we can't pay you anymore and byebye" it wouldn't have been a small thing. And if I had a spouse? Kids?

Most people in the US can't imagine themselves in that situation. For various reasons, I can. Deporting people who have been here awhile is a horrible, mean, punitive, pointless thing to do.

Fuck yeah.

Life Day Eve

Duck breast and some Radicchio di Treviso on the menu.

Afternoon Thread

I got nothin'.

Sacred

You'll only get your tax break if Jesus thinks you have enough parking.
But First Ward Councilman Tommy Cotter and Councilman-at-large Juan Perez last week opposed the abatement for 230-250 Ave. E, saying they don't want to help the project move forward because they don't think it provides enough parking.

"I know there's a light rail station (near the project) but there's nothing more sacred to day-to-day life in Bayonne than parking spaces," Perez said.

Cotter shared that sentiment, saying that while the project meets the minimum requirement of a 0.5 parking-to-unit ratio, that ratio is too small for Bayonne, which already suffers from insufficient parking spaces. The ratio should be at least 1.25, he said.

Really just not enough parking.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Life Day Eve Eve

Posting will be rather random during the holiday season. Some holidaying, some travel, some oh shit I'm actually busy with stuff.

Yah I know this blog sucks. You're used to it by now.

It's A Grift

I don't know if Rubio is the grifter, or if it's just the people he has hired, but a presidential campaign focused on teevee advertising and exciting new "digital outreach" is just about lazy consultants pocketing all the moneys without actually having to do any work.

I've never understood the "ZOMG RUBIO IS THE GUY TO BEAT" sentiment, but in addition to that, a campaign requires a... campaign. People are going to get rich off of Rubio, but he isn't going to win anything if that's "his" strategy.

It Moved!

Though not very far.
Workers at the Seattle waterfront switched on the power to the world’s largest boring machine and revved it forward early Tuesday, bringing hope to the Highway 99 tunnel project after a two-year delay.

The drill known as Bertha advanced 1½ feet, the Washington State Department of Transportation announced in an update.

Shit is Fucked Up And Bullshit

Fuck yeah.
A British Muslim family heading for Disneyland was barred from boarding a flight to Los Angeles by US authorities at London’s Gatwick airport amid concerns of an American overreaction to the perceived terrorist threat.

US Department of Homeland Security officials provided no explanation for why the country refused to allow the family of 11 to board the planeeven though they had been granted travel authorization online ahead of their planned 15 December flight.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

So Savvy

One thing I hate about primary season is that it brings out what Jay Rosen calls "the savvy" in lefty-leaning opinion journalists who don't normally operate from that perspective. Your supposed detached analysis is transparently not that. We're all hacks, to some degree, just own it.

Top 10 Shit That Was Fucked Up And Bullshit In 2015

Actually I'm too lazy to make a list, so let me google that for you.

Why Do Old People Live At The Beach?

I'm a lazy blogger on deadline (ok, no deadline, just busy with some stuff today), so I can't look up the actual research at the moment, but I have a dim memory from my academic days of a paper with roughly that title. Basically, the populations of most of the beach communities/cities in California skew a bit to the elderly side. Short version (from memory): prop. 13 gives existing owners preferential tax treatment (can't increase property taxes much), and people who bought before the 70s inflation got their houses for nothing.

Leaving aside the specifics of that issue, the general point is that The Kids Today have it pretty hard. College (even state schools) is absurdly expensive. Real estate is absurdly expensive in most places. Nobody has a defined pension plan anymore, and 401(K)s have worked so badly that nobody even bothers to try anymore. Old Economy Steve had a pretty good run. His kids, not so much.

Did It?

Can't find any confirmation that this actually happened.
After being stalled for two years, Bertha is set to resume boring Monday morning underneath the Seattle waterfront.

I'm not picking on Seattle with my minor Bertha obsession. It just seems to be an obviously bad project which was set up in an obviously bad way to benefit waterfront landowners in a city with immense traffic problems. Nothing all that special about any of that, except the might fail catastrophically part.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Late Night

Sadly we will not be accepting any refugees from Agrabah.

They Heart Vlad

One twitter troll explained it to me something like: yes, Putin is a bad guy, but he makes Obama look like a wimp and we love him for it.

Hillary Clinton, You're Our Only Hope

I think the stupidest thing this weekend was the accusation that Hillary Clinton made a Star Wars reference because JJ Lens Flare gave her campaign or her SuperPac or whatever some money.


That movie would've tanked without the Clinton nod on a pre-Christmas Saturday night debate that nobody watched.

No spoilers in the comments assholes.



#jarjarforever

Something

I guess we have to pat Cuomo on the head when he does something right.
Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said on Sunday that he would seek out and pardon thousands of people who were convicted of nonviolent crimes as teenagers but have since led law-abiding lives.

Shouldn't have to do this. No minor who gets involved in the criminal justice system for nonviolent crimes should have that record follow them around for the rest of their lives, though this step won't entirely solve this problem for these people.

Digby is having her

annual holiday fundraiser. She's a treasure. Any shekels you can spare will be appreciated.

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Acqua Alta

It's interesting that the regular flooding of Miami doesn't get covered. It doesn't take a storm. It just happens.

Don't Blame the Voters

We all know that Dems are less likely to vote in midterms. Roughly it's younger people who are less likely to vote and those young people, especially where it matters, are more likely to be Democrats. After the 2010 midterms this somehow morphed into the idea that THE LEFT, as distinct from Democrats, chose not to vote because they were firebaggers, or immature purity politics peddlers, or burn-it-down-to-save-it types. This all came from an internet pie fight lens view of politics, where a few anguished Daily Kos Diarists somehow represented a giant movement of Leftists Against Obama who took their balls and went home and that's how we got Speaker Boehner.

I'm sure a few of those people exist, and not just online, but for the most part people who spend precious time actually thinking about politics, including ones writing anguished Daily Kos Diaries or pissed off wonky housing policy critiques on sucky baby blue blogs, actually vote. It isn't THE LEFT who doesn't vote in midterms, it's Democrats.

But it was a useful bit of blame shifting. It wasn't the people who spent hundreds of millions of contributor dollars (raised with increasingly disgusting fundraising tactics by the DCCC especially) and who recruited a bunch of crappy candidates who were at fault. No, it was the fault of the politically immature dirty fucking hippie part of the coalition. Especially the ones on the internet, the patchouli powered internet.

We're already seeing the general election version of this, which is "ZOMG BERNIE SANDERS SUPPORTERS WILL LOSE THE ELECTION FOR HILLARY CLINTON BY REFUSING TO VOTE." Good story bro, 10.5 months away from the election. Maybe there will even be some truth it! But it's the candidate's (and the campaign's and the party's) job to win elections. It's their job to get people to the polls and push the correct button. That's what they collected all that money and hired all of those people for. You have to win elections with the electorate you have, not the electorate you want.

I'd probably push the team 'D' lever in a presidential election (almost) no matter who the candidate was, and I'd probably argue with anyone who suggested that it's better for that candidate to lose than to win (which is the argument if you're arguing that people shouldn't vote). But when candidates lose, it isn't the fault of voters, it's the the fault of the candidates. Still, hey, go ahead and start blaming Bernie-bros 10.5 months away from the election. That's the clear path to victory! Or, at least, the clear path to excusing your own failure.

That's Their Power

Journalists have, in the past, informed me that the ability to out sources who lie to them is their superpower that prevents sources from lying to them. Take that away, and you presumably get more lying sources.

Of course that's a bit undercut by the fact that it's a superpower that is never used, but giving people license to lie with impunity, and having lies granted additional weight through the authority granting "anonymous source" process and then pasted onto the front pages of our nation's most respected newspapers, without any possible negative consequences, doesn't seem like an especially good idea.

And if you have high level sources in government who are attempting to leak lies for partisan purposes, that's actually the important story. "Top NSA (or whatever) staffer attempts to use press to manipulate election results." Kind of a big deal, really. Bring that story to your editor!

The Silliest Genre

Your candidate's supporters are meaner than my candidate's supporters!


People on the internet are assholes. Pretty sure everyone should have figured that out by now.

Morning Thread

Breaking news, it's Sunday! Most people can sleep in.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Shit is Fucked Up And Bullshit

But we do love our children.
Flint switched its water supply in April 2014, drawing its drinking water from the Flint River while a new regional water system it plans to join next year is under construction. The local water treatment plant, with the approval of the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, failed to add chemicals to the river water that would have prevented lead in aging service lines from leaching into the water. All of these decisions were made with the approval of a series of emergency managers, appointed by Snyder to guide the city back to financial stability.

Within months, the amount of lead in Flint's drinking water soared. Lead poisoning is irreversible, and can cause behavioral and developmental problems in children.

Guilty

Kathryn Knott gambled and lost. Wasn't convicted on all counts, but I assume she'll get a harsher sentence than the arguably "more guilty" (in a moral, not legal sense) compatriots who decided to take a plea.

Whatever I thought about the case (GUILTY!), I wasn't there and wasn't on the jury, but from what I read there was enough ambiguity that maybe she could have won that gamble. She didn't.

Okay Here's Your Data, Bernie

The benevolent DNC has decided to honor its contract terms after all.

What a shit sandwich.

Morning Thread

Spocko on bringing real guns into movie theaters, but no fake guns allowed. Incredible.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Stories Behind Stories

Josh Uretsky is an old friend so perhaps I shouldn't say too much about DNCHACKINGGATE or whatever we're calling it (I will say that he is a genuinely good guy), but whatever the reality of that story, the bigger story, from the perspective that those with the real power are what really matter, is that the DNC and Debbie Wasserman Schultz are not exactly neutral in this primary and they don't even feel the need to pretend.
Shortly after the press conference, D.N.C. chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz appeared on CNN to dismiss Weaver's claims. "Unfortunately, the Sanders campaign doesn't have anything other than bluster at the moment that they can put out there," she said.

Sir, What Will Your Pleasure Be?

Hopefully take out Lilliput next, and then get rid of that menace Oz once and for all.

The Internet Left Is So Mean!!!

British politics/media coverage of politics reminds me of 2003 in the US. Sorry, Britain.
The Conservative MP Lucy Allan must have felt left out of this story, so she added a death threat to herself at the bottom of a constituent’s letter, writing “unless you die” so she could complain about it being violent. This must be terrifying for her, sending death threats to herself like this. She must have Post-it notes she’s written to herself on the fridge that say: “Remember to buy Cheesy Wotsits for the kid’s party. Or I’ll bury you alive, you bloodsucking whore.”

Then Corbyn finally went too far and attended a Stop the War Christmas dinner. Surely if he had any decency he’d behave like a proper MP and go to a dinner with arms traders or offshore bankers instead. Can’t he see he’s undermining the good work of parliamentarians who go to great lengths to support British Aerospace, trying to stop wars that are essential to the financial stability of the cluster bomb industry?

One complaint about the Stop the War coalition is that it has expressed support for President Assad. This is an impressive accusation if you’re a supporter of Tony Blair, because when Blair was Prime Minister he invited Assad on a state visit at which the President spoke of his “warm personal relations” with Blair. Then Blair established similarly warm relations with Gaddafi and Mubarak. He was probably trying to tick off all Arab dictators, the way some people like to visit all 92 football league grounds.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Jayyuuuubb Creeeeaaashion

What's the justification for any supposed "job creating" policy if the Fed is just going to take away the punchbowl? We all know FREE TRADE and LOWER TAXES and LESS REGULATION will CREATE JOBS. Accepting that's true for the sake of argument, job creation policies aren't much use if the Fed is going to ensure that wage growth never happens. In other words, job growth policies, even if they're correct, just inspire the Fed to kill the job creation part. You can't create more jobs than the Fed wants you to.

I do not understand why Very Serious Economists do not address this issue.

Signed,

Atrios, Ph. D

The Real Issue

Of course Republicans don't care about the deficit, but the bigger issue is that the scolds in the media only care about the deficit when they can blame Democrats for it.

Deficit obsession only exists when it serves the Republican agenda. Otherwise, everyone ignores it. Propose spending some money to fix some bridges or to give some food to starving poor people then ZOMG THE DEFICIT. Propose bombing random people or cutting taxes for billionaires.... silence.

Guest Post From Martin Shkreli

I know I have lots of competition, but I have to admit that I really am, at least for today, America's Worst Human.

-M "huggywuggies" Shkreli

Don't Think It's The First Time

This is from memory which by this point is full of holes, but my MEMORY is that the annoying interweb ads thing has gone through a few cycles. They get increasingly annoying and then there's a backlash combined with some technology which starts to suppress them and then advertisers pull back...until they come up with new extra annoying ads which slowly pollute the web... rinse, repeat.
This won’t happen quickly. Ads have been getting increasingly annoying for years; they’re not going to suddenly become demure and well-behaved overnight. But, for the first time since the web was invented, 2016 will be a year when adtech is forced into retreat.

Maybe it's the first cycle for mobile ads, but not the interwebs in general.

Advertisers pay more for annoying ads and presumably get much less. Find me one human who has purchased anything after being seduced by the joys that can only be provided by an auto-on audio/video ad?

Fed'd

For reasons nobody sane understands, the Fed raised rates yesterday. I guess the best reason is something like "we need to raise rates so once we cause the next recession we'll be able to lower them again" but that doesn't actually make a lot of sense.

I don't think a tiny rate increase will destroy the economy, but it does signal that the Fed will never again allow wages to increase. That's a bit depressing. Who would have thought we'd miss the good old days of Alan Greenspan?

Oh No, Bro

Tragic.
A boyish drug company entrepreneur, who rocketed to infamy by jacking up the price of a life-saving pill from $13.50 to $750, was arrested on securities fraud related to a firm he founded.

Martin Shkreli, 32, ignited a firestorm over drug prices in September and became a symbol of defiant greed. The federal case against him has nothing to do with pharmaceutical costs, however. Prosecutors charged him with illegally taking stock from Retrophin Inc., a biotechnology firm he started in 2011, and using it pay off debts from unrelated business dealings. He was later ousted from the company, where he’d been chief executive officer, and sued by its board.

In the case that closely tracks that suit, federal prosecutors accused Shkreli of engaging in a complicated shell game after his defunct hedge fund, MSMB Capital Management, lost millions. He is alleged to have made secret payoffs and set up sham consulting arrangements.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Crazy Ideas

I wonder where Crazy Eyes Larry got this idea?

Contractionary policy is contractionary

hmmm.....


No of course I'm not suggesting that I originated the concept or even the phrase, but if only people had listened a bit earlier...

Wednesday Crass Commercialism

Hey, Will Bunch wrote a new book. Only $2.99 (Kindle) too!


Duh

Predictions are hard, especially about the future, and I think it's silly to analyze the impact of debates without any real polling numbers (without them you're just feeling it at us, perhaps with some thoughts about what OTHER beltway people thought about it), but as for the basic point... I never understood why so many political professionals - and I mean ones on The Left - appeared to see Rubio as the Great Republican Threat. He comes across as a not very bright, not very charming, and not very skilled little boy. He doesn't know how to chew the scenery and (supposedly, but not really) piss off liberals quite as much as the other folks, and to the extent that policy substance matters (it should! but who knows?) he's a gibberish fountain. Appeal to Republicans: limited. Appeal to mostly mythical swing voters: very limited. Appeal to actual Democrats: none.



A Truly Great Partner

For our next bold humanitarian mission.
Saudi Arabia has announced the formation of an “Islamic military alliance” to combat global terrorism, an effort to respond to Western assertions that it could do more in the fight against the Islamic State and to solidify its claim to leadership of the Sunni world against Shiite Iran.

The 34-member group, to be headquartered in Riyadh, will coordinate mutual anti-terrorism assistance for members “all over the Islamic world,” Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman said in a rare news conference Tuesday.

This will go well. Though I guess the script has changed. We're no longer helping the poor people of Syria, we're just killing "bad guys." I'm sure this new Islamic military alliance will find all the bad guys and then some.

I Can't Believe There's Still a Kiddie Table

I know there are a multitude of inputs into the decision making process for these things - including, of course, ratings - but it's hard to imagine a world in which there were so many "serious" Democratic candidates that any news network planning to broadcast a debate would just shrug its shoulders and say, "oh well, I guess we gotta have two." They'd choose the "top" 5 (however they would decide to choose them) and tell the rest to piss off. Related, most of the candidates would be completed ignored by the Sunday shows instead of each one getting multiple turns.

The Republicans must be heard. All of them. Again and again and again and again.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

America's Worst Humans

J. Bruce Harreld.

If I said something equivalent, the FBI would be at my house. At least a few lawsuits might bloom.

Late Afternoon Thread

I have an idea, let's have an early Happy Hour! To your health, hic.

Looters

Shocked.
McGovern and her handpicked team of former AT&T colleagues have presided over a string of previously unreported management blunders that have eroded the charity’s ability to fulfill its core mission of aiding Americans in times of need.

Under McGovern, the Red Cross has slashed its payroll by more than a third, eliminating thousands of jobs and closing hundreds of local chapters. Many veteran volunteers, who do the vital work of responding to local fires and floods have also left, alienated by what many perceive as an increasingly rigid, centralized management structure.

Far from opening offices in every city and town, the Red Cross is stumbling in response to even smaller scale disasters.

Right or wrong (probably wrong) they can raise giant amounts money any time there's a disaster. But, you know, gotta run it like a business!

Not really blunders. Just the plan.

Nobody Could Have Predicted

Maybe the machine will be ready by Dec. 23, but the date was obviously chosen to add in a couple weeks of holiday wiggle room.
Official schedules say the machine should be ready to dig by Dec. 23, though Dixon has said workers might take a holiday break first, after weeks of overtime.

Monday, December 14, 2015

This Will Probably Doom Trump's Campaign

Something seems to do so every week or so.
Donald Trump has crossed the 40 percent threshold in a new national poll, giving the Republican presidential candidate the largest lead he’s held in any survey so far.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday found Trump taking 41 percent support and opening up a 27-point lead over the next closest contender ahead of Tuesday night’s Republican presidential debate in Las Vegas.


I don't think I did/would have predicted Trump's level of current success, but once he started getting high poll numbers all of the "TRUMP IS DOOMED THIS TIME" stories from the people who are paid lots of money to explain this stuff to us were hilarious. The only good information about a primary like this is poll numbers. They certainly can change, and they do, but pundits think their guts know truths that polls cannot reflect. The rich people who gchat with them know special things.

2012 was similarly hilarious with all of the savvy pundits hating Nate Silver. Silver was no wizard. He basically averaged polls and managed to make that actually interesting by forming an extended narrative about them. THE POLLS ARE ALL WRONG! NATE SILVER IS A FALSE PROPHET they all cried. It's true that all of the polls could have been wrong. That's possible! But without the polls, you have little more than the voices in your head.

Helpful

People are horrible.
PARIS — The French authorities said on Monday that a teacher who claimed to have been stabbed with scissors and a box cutter at a preschool near Paris had fabricated the story.

A police official in Aubervilliers confirmed that the teacher, who has not been identified, admitted to having invented the assault at the Jean Perrin preschool in Aubervilliers, a northern suburb of Paris.

The Partisan Trap

One game our pundits have loved to play for years is blaming democrats for politicizing anything that's a priority of... democrats. If they just wouldn't bring it up, then it wouldn't be such an icky liberal thing, and then maybe Republicans would support it! It's true, in a way, that once a cause becomes associated with libturds then Republicans will run away from it, but somehow this is the fault of Democrats! Basically, sit in the corner, shut up, let the Republicans govern, and every now and then maybe something good will come out of it.

Right.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Flavor of the Week

Apparently the memo came down from central programming. The new hot thing is Cruz! He's gonna win because reasons!!!

Lunch Thread

Get your lunch on.

Is That It?

I know nothing about these things, but if attempts to take out oil infrastructure are this ineffective, it's probably because the powers that be don't want to blow up the valuable stuff.
These efforts to stop Isis earning money from oil is starting to have an effect. Production fell by 30 per cent in December at al-Omar and al-Tanak.

It sounds like the bombing is making it be dangerous to be an oil worker (because you might be bombed!), and is not actually focused on blowing up valuable infrastructure which would be easier and kill fewer people.

Fuck yeah.

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Late Night

The lost Doctor Who episode.

The Weird Time Of Year

When you're a writer (though I barely consider myself to be one, I just express stuff. more jaw jaw than write write.), it's generally fair to assume that it's your own fault if any good faith critic misunderstands you. There is something about this holly jolly season when lots of people seem to misunderstand me.

What Day Is It Again?

Holiday season is usually shit for blogging. Usually there's nothing going on - so nothing to talk about - and sometimes I'm a bit busy with other things because occasionally I am not chained to my computer. Just a warning that there's lots of sucky blogging ahead? Talk amongst yourselves.

The Internet Is Made Of Assholes

I suppose I could elaborate, but you get the point.

Friday, December 11, 2015

The Parking People

Here in the urban hellhole people make it very hard to build anything that resembles the urban hellhole. I'm not entirely against people who are looking out for their self-interest, but for years the parking people preferred row houses with front facing garages to ones without. That means that people who were concerned that new development (mostly just replacing existing uninhabitable homes) would take away parking for the neighborhood actually advocated for plans which would take away parking for the neighborhood. A garage requires a curb cut. A curb cut takes away a public parking space and replaces it with a private one. The parking people liked this because they don't understand how things work. On most issues I don't subscribe to the "people are stupid" idea. I tend to think we just disagree about stuff. I disagree with people who think more parking is always important, but that's fine. What isn't fine is that the parking people actually advocate for development that takes away parking. I just don't get it.

Somebody Called the Wahmbulance

I'm not omniscient and of course wasn't there, but multiple similar accusations do suggest this guy was guilty guilty guilty. And the jury found him guilty*18.

I'm sure there are a lot of "good cops." The people I knew from high school who became local cops were bullies and assholes in high school. Maybe they became good cops, too. None of us were exactly perfect in high school. That they were assholes then doesn't mean they stayed assholes. Still, the high school asshole to cop career trajectory was telling.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Thursday Crass Commercialism

Surely you have some spoiled brat delightful child in your extended family who would love this.

Some Employees

Volkswagen should become an un-company and every executive (let's stop pretending they didn't know) should have all of their income stripped.
WOLFSBURG, Germany — Volkswagen said on Thursday that its emissions cheating scandal began in 2005 with a decision to heavily promote diesel engines in the United States and a realization that those engines could not meet clean air standards.

What followed was a textbook example of what happens when ambition combines with weak internal controls and ethical standards, the company acknowledged as it presented a preliminary report of its investigation into the origins of the scandal.

Some employees, the company found, chose to cheat on emissions tests rather than to curtail Volkswagen’s American campaign.

“There was a tolerance for breaking the rules,” Hans-Dieter Pötsch, the chairman of Volkswagen’s supervisory board, said here on Thursday, at his first lengthy news conference since the emissions cheating came to light in September. “That is the hardest thing to accept,” he added.

It's just so hard to accept. It's just a mystery! How did this happen? We must get to the bottom of this! It's also confusing and no one really gets it.

Whatever.

Good Guys With Guns

College kids and guns are a bad mix, as I've noted before, but aside from that...just who do they think they are defending themselves against? What kind of safety issues do they think exist?

When I was growing up, I "knew" the city was a scary place where crime happened. I never thought about it anywhere else. Not saying my characterization of the city was necessarily correct at the time, just that the entire point of living in the burbs was that it was safe. That characterization might not have been correct, either, but I don't remember people worrying about "protecting themselves" all the time. Where did this come from?

Morning Thread

It's all tRump, all the time.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Happy Hour

Have at it! Hic.

Get Out There And Rock And Roll The Bones

I started writing this blog with the hope that I might be able to influence the world in some small way. I actually think I've managed to do that much more than I could have ever hoped to. Not claiming that I am now actually your benevolent dictator, just that any influence greater than zero would be a victory. Who knew crazy people could set up Weblogs and once in awhile have an impact. Once in awhile I (we) have, I think.

But the point of this post is actually the opposite. This blog exists for many other reasons now. Admittedly one is that it's my primary income source! In addition, it's sustained by, and sustained for, the active community. I do it all for you bastards, more or less. Still there are limits to how much ranting on the internets can change the world. So we (and I mean we, including me!), should occasionally think about doing more. Changing the world is hard work.

It's A Million Miles Away

Dulles is horrible and it's about a 7 hour drive from DC. Okay that's an exaggeration, but it was an airport built on all of the wrong assumptions. Other airports that are basically a plane flight away from their home cities, off of the top of my head, are Denver's and Seattle's.

Pet Peeve

People who assert things are "constitutional" or "unconstitutional" without qualifications. Unless there's a relatively recent ruling which applies 100% with no wiggle room to the issue at hand, it's never certain. It's constitutional/unconstitutional if the Supremos say it is.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

The Immigrant Hordes

One great mystery to me is why so many people really really hate that there's any immigration to the US. Yes, most of the conversation is about bad "illegal immigrants," because illegal sounds bad, but most of the people who talk that way don't care about the distinction between documented or undocumented immigrants. Scratch the surface a bit and what they really want is to stop all immigration. Furriners terrify and enrage them. Sure it's mostly the brown ones. I suppose if Hugh Grant wants to move here they'd be okay with it, though probably not Idris Elba. Maybe a few Canadians because who can tell anyway. Some of them probably even know a few immigrants, but they're okay because they're the good ones. But those other immigrants, keep them out before they destroy civilization.

I've traveled a bit all around this great big world, and it's pretty clear to me that places that don't have much immigration are... ossified. A bit frozen in time, and not in a good way.

Gun Groper Jargon

A billion years ago in blog time, I got a bunch of shit over something I posted because it PROVED I didn't know anything about the military, blah blah blah. I forget what point I was trying to make, but there was some issue over military vehicles being used in Iraq, and I posted a picture of a "fighting vehicle" and wrote something like, "oh, so it's a tank." Because of that post, I was no longer allowed to say anything about whether we should kill lots of people in random countries for no good reason because I was stoopid shutupShutupShutUpSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUP.

Anyway, I obviously wasn't trying to argue with the army about its terminology for various vehicles, my point was simply that, "oh, this thing is something that most people would call a tank." Because it looks like a tank and probably is pretty similar to vehicles which, in the past, have just been called tanks. I have no interest in arguing about this. A big heavy armored vehicle with guns is, to me, a "tank." That the army calls it something else, that there is some important distinction to them about what is or isn't a tank is fine with me. No argument.

Gun gropers love to play these games with terminology. "Assault weapons" don't exist. Most automatic weapons are really semi-automatic weapons, until you call something a semi-automatic weapon and then suddenly it isn't really a semi-automatic weapon, it's, I don't know, a crossbow or something. They brag about their giant detachable death penises that can fire 30 rounds per minute but then argue with you because they can really only fire 26 rounds per minute and YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT GUNS SO SHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUP. Gun show loopholes aren't loopholes they're just methods by which people legally buy guns at gun shows, and any attempts to close gun show loopholes are serious violations of FREEDUM.

Jargon exists for good reasons, but that "outsiders" fail to understand its fine nuances doesn't mean that they can't comment on the problem of millions of idiot gun gropers owning death machines. It just means they don't have subscriptions to several gun groper fetish magazines.

Prime Targets

I remember those glorious post-9/11 days, when cable news would breathlessly report on Terra Threats to some random mall in kabumfuck, Kansas. As if. Of course bad shit can happen anywhere, and assholes with guns are everywhere, but I'm pretty sure that if there's some grand international terrorist plot then it isn't going to be focused on Hughes Springs, Texas. More assholes with guns shooting people? Quite likely.
An East Texas police chief is urging residents to arm themselves against terrorists after listening to President Barack Obama's Sunday night address to the nation.

Gun gropers will take any excuse to spend their retirement funds on more guns, but given stories that people have told me over the years, I'm pretty sure people in places like Hughes Springs, population 1760, really do believe the terraists are coming for them.

Wolverines!

Monday, December 07, 2015

Stateless

Some things don't require comment.
In a statement from his campaign, Trump called for a "total and complete shutdown" of Muslims entering the United States until elected leaders can "figure out what is going on."

When asked by The Hill whether that would include Muslim-American citizens currently abroad, Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks replied over email: "Mr. Trump says, 'everyone.'"

Even US citizens. Well then.

Summary Execution

We'll always be the shining city on the hill.

The Miracles Of Modern Education

It is quite amazing that so many Americas were able to obtain appropriate training for safe and responsible gun ownership (TM) so quickly.
Many Americans agree and are stocking up on weapons after the country’s worst mass shooting in three years. Gun retailers are reporting surging sales, with customers saying they want to keep handguns and rifles at hand for self-defense in the event of another attack.

“Everyone is reporting up, every store, every salesman, every distributor,” said Ray Peters, manager of Range, Guns & Safes, a company that sells firearms and safes in Atlanta with an indoor firing range. “People are more aware of the need to protect themselves.”

Oh, wait, you're saying a bunch of idiots who have never had any gun instruction probably just went out and bought a bunch of guns they don't know how to use? I'm feeling safer already.
Peters usually carries a pistol with him. But since last week’s shooting, he says he’s added a Ruger semiautomatic rifle.

At least Peters probably know what he's doing. Glad his second detachable death penis has made him feel safer.

More seriously, I live in an urban hellhole, one of those places which does actually have regular gun violence. I don't walk around feeling unsafe. Sure I could get mugged by someone with a gun. It happens. I just doubt that pulling out my own gun (or two!) would increase my likelihood of not getting shot. Kinda think it would be the opposite. If someone just wanted to kill me I probably wouldn't see the person before it happened.

I don't understand these people.

Everything Will Be Fine Until It Isn't

I really don't get how these universities think everything will work out on these Qatar campuses. They're essentially relying on receiving special treatment which in itself should be at odds with their academic missions (somewhat quaint idea, I know, but still), and that special treatment can be revoked at anytime. Eventually there will be a major incident of some sort. The question is how the universities will respond.

What's It All About Then

So we're bombing Assad and the people who are trying to take down Assad.

But they're all bad so it's ok.

Sunday, December 06, 2015

Evening Thread

Tomorrow is...

It's the Happiest Time of the Year

Time to choose your annual caganer for your nativity scene.

Another 20,000 Should Do The Trick

I guess we need to buy more freedom bombs. Fortunately they're free. It's right there in the name. Nice things are very expensive, sadly.
Washington (CNN)The U.S. Air Force has fired off more than 20,000 missiles and bombs since the U.S. bombing campaign against ISIS began 15 months ago, according to the Air Force, leading to depleted munitions stockpiles and calls to ramp up funding and weapons production.

A Family of Gun Gropers

These people obviously believe they're cool, but they're ridiculous and dangerous. Who needs a detachable penis to get through the day? They do, apparently.

I don't think most gun gropers really believe they need guns to "protect their family." They have vigilante fantasies. They *want* to have to protect their family. They want to shoot a scary person.

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Kinda Hard to Use More Than One at a Time

Gun gropers are often a bit obsessed.
ROCHESTER HILLS, Mich. (wxyz) - A Rochester Hills man who owned 145 guns was arrested for allegedly shooting at his wife earlier this week.

I don't think gun obsessions are necessarily (though they can be!) all that different from any other obsession. As a species we seem to be pretty good at obsessing about stuff. Could be sports, or knitting, or video games, or whatever. Though there is one key difference. Guns are for killing people. I suppose those knitting needles can be dangerous too, but...

Area Fed Chief Does Not Understand Monetary Policy

Oh Jeebus.
Accordingly, I would like to see rates raised sooner rather than later. With an early start, we can better ensure that monetary accommodation is removed gradually and that inflation returns to the Fed’s 2 percent target smoothly. My fear is that the Federal Reserve risks losing its credibility and only adds uncertainty to the economic landscape the longer the Committee waits to begin normalizing policy.
Raising rates is how we increase inflation now?

Morning Thread

What to buy a two year old for Christmas?

Friday, December 04, 2015

Late Night

Keep rockin'.

They Think It's Ok

It isn't surprising that people in power are racist assholes. I admit I'm slightly surprised that they don't feel any need to hide it.

Feeling The Rubiomentum

It seems like every other week or so a memo comes down from central planning and the press, in unison, all start pushing The Next Obvious Republican Frontrunner, no matter what the polls say.
Donald Trump is once again alone at the top of the Republican field, according to the latest CNN/ORC Poll, with 36% of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents behind him, while his nearest competitor trails by 20 points.

Three candidates cluster behind Trump in the mid-teens, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 16%, former neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 14% and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 12%. All other candidates have the support of less than 5% of GOP voters in the race for the Republican Party's nomination for president.

The War Was Great, Everybody Got Rich

One big grift.
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) is asking why a small Department of Defense task force charged with developing the Afghan economy spent nearly $150 million on private villas, security guards and luxury meals while operating in the country between 2010 and 2014.

But we can't have any nice things at home.

Jobs

+211K, unemployment at 5%.


Making it pretty much inevitable that the Fed will take away the punchbowl just as the party is getting started. We all want jobs and wage growth, except ZOMG WAGE GROWTH WE CAN'T HAVE THAT INFLATION WILL KILL US ALL.

Early Morning Thread

Hopefully more time for blogging today!

Thursday, December 03, 2015

Evening Thread

Life intervened today. Busy.

Teatime Thread


The Los Angeles Times:

Farook and Malik used two assault rifles and two semi-automatic handguns in the attack on the party, all of which were purchased legally, according to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. A federal law enforcement source told the Los Angeles Times that the guns were bought at Annie's Get Your Gun, a firearms retailer in nearby Corona that advertises itself as a "family-friendly gun store."

They Don't Pray

What bothers me most is most people who mutter the incantation "thoughts and prayers" don't actually pray. I'm a cynical atheist/agnostic who doesn't see much point in prayer but if people find it helpful or therapeutic then good for them. What I hate is the pose. Most of these people aren't actually praying, they're just telling people that they are.

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Evening Thread

Everything is shit. Discuss.

The Guns We Will Always Have With Us

I'll support any gun control legislation you can think up. When I am your benevolent dictator, I will, in fact, take all of your guns away. But as I've written a million times, I don't think any semi-realistic gun legislation is really going to solve the problem, because we aren't actually going to take all of the guns away. As I said, I would if I could. But it isn't going to happen. The best we can do, I think, is to treat gun gropers like the ridiculous, if dangerous, people that they are. Won't help much, but making people embarrassed to own guns, instead of proud, might help a bit.

9/11 Is The High Holy Day For Conservatives

Thought it had faded, but apparently it has not.
But fueled by voter fears about ISIS after the attacks in Paris — and a subsequent boost from the largest paper in one of the key early primary states — New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is focusing on terrorism.

At a standing-room only town hall inside the firehouse in tiny Loudon, N.H., the crowd took the Pledge of Allegiance facing a poster of firefighters raising the American flag at the World Trade Center site on Sept. 11, 2001. And it was fear of another such attack that hung heavy over Christie's 36th town hall meeting here.

They do remember the good old days, when 3000 people died and libturds were on the run.

Because It Isn't Pointed Out Enough

While there are some anti-choice people who are vocal about opposing IVF, for the most part the anti-choice movement just pretends it doesn't exist. It's okay to kill "babies" in the name of having them, just not okay otherwise.

Bombs Away

Britain's going to do some more freedom bombing in Syria because they're only a few more freedom bombs away from freedom. I'm not even sure who Britain is planning to bomb. I doubt Britain is either. I think the plan is to bomb enemies of Assad on days ending in 'y' and then bomb Assad on days containing the letter 'd'. This will surely help the Syrian people, much more than just giving them homes and food as they flee. That would be too expensive, anyway. Fortunately freedom bombs are free. It's right there in the name.

Has Rahm Deleted His Account Yet?

There are a lot of "bad Dems" but Emanuel is probably about the most despicable elected official, period. We all heard the charming story about how Rahm's dream job was to be mayor of Chicago. I guess his dream activity was doing his best to cover up for cops who murder black people.

The World's Worst Humans

David Cameron.

He's got the whole Murdoch empire to do that for him, but he just couldn't help himself.

Early Morning.

I'm still working half way on Paris time, so woke up at 3:00 a.m. Too early, even for an early bird such as myself.

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Evening Reading

From krgthulu.

Or buy Robert's book!

Krgthulu's come a long way (as I have, in my own somewhat different way.)

This Time It's Different

Hillary Clinton should be thankful for Benghazi. I don't mean what happened there, I mean the BENGHAZI of the fever swamps. The scandal that wasn't a scandal.

That whole Libya intervention thing didn't work out so well. Benghazi (real and BENGHAZI) is a distraction from that.

We'll know better next time.

Tuesday Crass Commercialism

What everyone wants most from Santa is an external hard drive.

and if bigger is better...

Hippies to the Left of Me, Hippies to the Right

It's less of a thing than it used to be, but I'm still regularly struck by the desire of Democrats to claim to Not Be Like Those Other Democrats. I'm not talking about failing to march in lockstep with what isn't an organized political party. I'm talking about the pose. In the post-Bush Obama era it's actually much harder even to try to pose as a NotLikeOtherDemocrats, but still people do it. It's weird. None of us are like Those Democrats, because Those Democrats don't actually exist. It's silly. Stop posing.

There's Always A Holiday Somewhere

Keep dreaming.
The sale of $1 billion in government bonds — a key financing element to ensure there is sufficient funding to complete the American Dream Meadowlands shopping and entertainment complex — may not be issued until early next year, officials said.

Tony Armlin, vice president of development and construction for Triple Five, the Canada-based conglomerate that is building American Dream, had said in an interview in September that the bonds would be issued "in the next several weeks." But Debbie Patire, a Triple Five spokeswoman, confirmed Tuesday a revised timeline for issuing the bonds that executives at the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority first described last week.

That state agency is expected to issue about $350 million in bonds that will be repaid to institutional investors via the transfer of Triple Five’s annual tax savings through a state grant.

Actual Good News

I'm lucky that I lost my taste for soda (or PAAAWWP as people in Western PA call it) a long time ago. Think I have a coke about twice per year, some gatorade (not soda, but a sugary - if less sugary - drink) if I'm exercising on a hot day occasionally. Not claiming I live a perfectly healthy lifestyle eating only artisanal vegan air chips, just saying that cutting out what are likely (don't know!) serious contributors to the diabetes epidemic can't hurt. Aside from diet, I've heard stories from people with Type II diabetes who basically cured it by walking. Anecdotes are not data, and I claim no expertise on these issues (though many people who do claim expertise don't seem to know what they're talking about), but I do hope that there is truth to the latest round of advice on exercise. It used to be something like "do hard core cardio for 30 minutes 4 times per week or don't bother." That's a pretty high hurdle for many people. Now it's more just be more active. Walk 10,000 steps per day to send the diabetes away. That isn't actually hard if you have a bit of walking integrated into your life anyway (commute, shopping, etc.). It just requires a tiny bit of additional effort. Anyway, if relatively simple things can stop you from losing limbs late in life that's a good thing.
EUTAW, Ala. — After decades of relentless rise, the number of new cases of diabetes in the United States has finally started to decline.

The rate of new cases fell by about a fifth from 2008 to 2014, according to researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the first sustained decline since the disease started to explode in this country about 25 years ago.

Lots Of Things Are Mysteries To Old Economy Steve

Why don't the kids today get married young and have children? Why don't they buy houses? Why do they spend money on cell phones? Why do they like "vintage" clothing?

The contemporary world is so puzzling. The answers are so elusive.

Overnight/Early Morning

Here are some of the most beautiful nature photographs ever taken. Anyone of them would make a wonderful Christmas present for just about anyone on your list. Or, you can just enjoy them while sipping your first cuppa.