Monday, February 29, 2016
Tuesday Is Super Yuge
While Rubio will be the real winner tomorrow, coming in third and maybe obtaining as many as 30 more delegates, Trump will almost certainly win the Earth-2 primary where votes and delegates matter more than pundit instincts, arbitrary hurdles, and pretend momentum.
Anti-Trumpism
I suppose Trump's explicit racism as opposed to the usual dog-whistle kind might make them worry about the GOP brand a bit, but otherwise the general Republican bigwig and establishment journalism (except for cable news) opposition to Trump has little to do with Trump himself or his policies. It's that DC is an interconnected web of journalism, think tanks, donors, various party "insiders," low, middle, and high level staffers, lobbyists, the military-industrial and security state complexes, etc. Most of those people know they can leverage what connections they have under the other candidates, because they're all, to varying degrees, a part of the same web. But Trump isn't. Even "outsider" candidates usually have to kiss the pinky rings of those who are, or imagine they are, "insiders," but not Trump. Statements like "The Republican Party is imploding" don't (or shouldn't) mean that Trump is destroying the electoral chances of Republicans, it means he's potentially breaking that web.
Zingers
I'm all for the use of mockery in politics. It is effective. But we're not all natural bullies or natural comedians. You can't program the Rubiobot in 2016 any more than you could program the Mittbot in 2012.
And you definitely don't inform the press that it's your strategery.
Mr. Romney’s team has concluded that debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since August. His strategy includes luring the president into appearing smug or evasive about his responsibility for the economy.
And you definitely don't inform the press that it's your strategery.
Is Rubio Preznit Yet?
I'm repeating myself here, but while I don't claim to have initially predicted Trump's success, after he was up in the polls consistently for a couple of months it was ridiculous to pretend he didn't have a pretty good chance. I know many in the press just wanted to believe (for whatever reasons) that he was the flavor of the week. In 2012 basically everbody in the clown car had a moment of being flavor the week. But this time the press kept trying to manufacture them. You know, Fiorina SURGES to EIGHT POINTS in the polls! In 5th place, she's the one to beat! If we say it enough, it will come true!
But Trump's been ahead the whole time. The only genuine flavor of the week was Ben Carson. Good for his grift, but he wasn't going to challenge the Donald.
But Trump's been ahead the whole time. The only genuine flavor of the week was Ben Carson. Good for his grift, but he wasn't going to challenge the Donald.
Sunday, February 28, 2016
Primarily
I suppose it's weird to be a political blogger and not have all that much to say about the Democratic primary. I just don't have any deep analysis that people who read this blog can't figure out by themselves. I don't like discussions of "momentum" or how candidate X needs to be up 5 points (or whatever) in Colorado (or wherever) in order to "remain viable." It all starts to sound like sports commentary (they really need to get some points on the board! he's got a hot hand!).
I don't really find any electability arguments to be particularly persuasive. That doesn't mean they're wrong, and you might find them persuasive, but I don't have much interest in engaging them. Clinton will likely win, Sanders will likely lose, and while anything is still possible, that's always been the case, though that is not an argument to stop working for either candidate if you are doing that.
God this blog sucks.
I don't really find any electability arguments to be particularly persuasive. That doesn't mean they're wrong, and you might find them persuasive, but I don't have much interest in engaging them. Clinton will likely win, Sanders will likely lose, and while anything is still possible, that's always been the case, though that is not an argument to stop working for either candidate if you are doing that.
God this blog sucks.
Afternoon Thread
Just a reminder, Tim Bousquet has taken Part 1 of DEAD WRONG out from behind the pay wall. This is a chance for everybody who didn't want or couldn't take a subscription to find out what all the huzzahs are about. Very gripping, long form investigative journalism piece. So sad to see all the young women who are gone and sadder still that because they lived on the margins of society, nobody much cared.
edited to get the name right, damnit.
edited to get the name right, damnit.
Morning Thread
Good news. Tim Bousquet has taken Part 1 of DEAD WRONG out from behind the subscription wall. I'm betting if you give Part 1 a go, you'll wind up subscribing to get the rest. Even if not, now is your chance at some of the most gripping investigative journalism you're ever going to read.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
On The Flip Side
We'll continue to see the "amusing" spectacle of conservatives and the "objective" press coming home to Trump.
A Nation Cries Out For Marco, But Does Not Vote For Him
The degree to which the press - and not just various conservative pundits, but the supposedly "objective" press - has been pushing Marco Rubio has been hilarious. I've lost count of how many times he's surged without any evidence of actually surging. Third place is really first place.
Of course anything can happen (though that becomes less true with every primary), but the cheerleading has been ridiculous. Yah they rooted for McCain too, which was wrong, but I even sort of understood that. Lotsa Daddy issues in the press corps. Rubio ain't your Daddy, he's a manchild.
Of course anything can happen (though that becomes less true with every primary), but the cheerleading has been ridiculous. Yah they rooted for McCain too, which was wrong, but I even sort of understood that. Lotsa Daddy issues in the press corps. Rubio ain't your Daddy, he's a manchild.
Trump'd
Completely predictable.
The NYT could've told us that LePage was a wee bit "divisive" himself but nah.
At a meeting of Republican governors the next morning, Paul R. LePage of Maine called for action. Seated at a long boardroom table at the Willard Hotel, he erupted in frustration over the state of the 2016 race, saying Mr. Trump’s nomination would deeply wound the Republican Party. Mr. LePage urged the governors to draft an open letter “to the people,” disavowing Mr. Trump and his divisive brand of politics.
...
On Friday, a few hours after Mr. Christie endorsed him, Mr. Trump collected support from a second governor, who in a radio interview said Mr. Trump could be “one of the greatest presidents.”
That governor was Paul LePage.
The NYT could've told us that LePage was a wee bit "divisive" himself but nah.
Morning Thread
Bullying: The Republican Tactic Which Backfired. Kind of remarkable that the Republican candidates didn't do oppo research against the likely candidate.
Friday, February 26, 2016
Gotta Get Down
Will it be Vice President Christie or Attorney General Christie in the Trump administration?
Time to panic.
Time to panic.
Coward
It's why none of them have really gone after Trump (Jebya! tried to and we saw how that worked out). He's the Alpha Bully and they know it. They'd get demolished.
The Last Honest Man In Washington
One of our great traditions is that Democrat-appointed justices have to recuse themselves from cases for any tiny thing, while Republican-appointed ones, well, you know...
Timely reporting, New York Times.
WASHINGTON — Antonin Scalia was the longest-tenured justice on the current Supreme Court and the country’s most prominent constitutionalist. But another quality also set him apart: Among the court’s members, he was the most frequent traveler, to spots around the globe, on trips paid for by private sponsors.
When Justice Scalia died two weeks ago, he was staying, again for free, at a West Texas hunting lodge owned by a businessman whose company had recently had a matter before the Supreme Court.
Timely reporting, New York Times.
Morning Thread
Heard there was a rip roaring, rooting tooting debate last night.
Glad I missed it. Law & Order repeats are so much more entertaining.
Glad I missed it. Law & Order repeats are so much more entertaining.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
America's Worst Humans
Erick "Son of Erick" Erickson.
Back in the dark ages of blogging (the Bush years), all liberal bloggers knew not to get within twelve parsecs of making Nazi references. Rules for liberals are always different (not that casual Nazi references are generally a good idea whoever is making them).
Back in the dark ages of blogging (the Bush years), all liberal bloggers knew not to get within twelve parsecs of making Nazi references. Rules for liberals are always different (not that casual Nazi references are generally a good idea whoever is making them).
And Then You Can Legally Drive One
It should be illegal to leave a teenager in a car until they're old enough to drive one.
Ok.
Why do so many people have amnesia about their childhoods? It's weird.
Ok.
Why do so many people have amnesia about their childhoods? It's weird.
Remember Libya?
I still get enraged about Libya. Probably not as enraged as actual Libyans who have a bit more reason to be enraged than I do, but I still get really pissed off about it. All of the humanitarian interventionist liberals informed me that we had to bomb the shit out of the country in order to save the poor people of Libya from the tyranny of the guy we supported 10 days ago, and that not wanting to bomb the shit out of them made me a bad person. Predictably, everything went to hell in Libya, and humanitarian concerns magically disappeared as well. Where are the impassioned pleas for aid? They seem to be missing from the blogs and newspaper columns. It's not about me, of course, but honestly there are people I will never talk to again because of the bullshit condescension I got about the need to bomb the shit out of Libya. Assholes.
For All Eternity
Pretty sure we should just guess how Scalia would have voted on any given case, and then count that vote. No need to replace him. This would only apply to Scalia of course, not any other Justices should they happen to die, because he was Antonin Fucking Scalia.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
The Kids Today
A bunch of people (some of The Kids Today!), commented in various ways on this post. I don't think expensive college is the only way that The Kids Today are getting the short shrift, I just think it's the clearest example of what the government did for people once upon a time, and what the government does not do for people now. There are all kinds of other issues, such as The Rent Is Too Damn High, which are certainly real but more complicated. But there's a very simple story about in-state public university tuition. Once upon a time, it was almost free. Now it's expensive. Because of that, even The Kids Today who do what they're told and go get engineering degrees from public universities (not really sure where all these engineering jobs are, but that's the story), still start life with a mortgage and no home unless their parents can pay the bill.
Nothing To See Here
Increasingly it looks like the impacts of climate change are entering worst case scenario territory.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
The Jesus Stuff Was Always Bullshit
I'm not denying that there are religious people, but the intersection of politics and religion in the US has long been more tribal. I have no interest in playing the one true Christian game - if people say they're Christian, then they're Christian - but conservative political Christianity has always been about punching hippies. Some of them are devout by any reasonable measure, and some of them have never cracked open a bible, but it really doesn't matter.
No Hearing
It is puzzling why the Republicans have decided on an "Obummer Supreme Court nominee doesn't even deserve a hearing" strategy. I'd think pretending to go through the motions, finding something mildly embarrassing, and then more in sorrow than in anger having to regrettably reject their nomination would make more sense. That would be bullshit, too, but bullshit within the norms.
Obummer should just be like fuck it, then. Lena Dunham for Supreme Court.
Obummer should just be like fuck it, then. Lena Dunham for Supreme Court.
Elizabeth Line
Formerly known as Crossrail, it's the kind of project which is basically unpossible to imagine happening anywhere in Amerka, even in New York where they can't seem to manage to complete the 2nd Ave. Subway. It mostly duplicates existing service, because those existing lines are too clogged. The scale of it is astounding. The cost, by American standards, was actually pretty cheap.
Yurp has its problems (some countries more than others) but the idea that nice things are possible hasn't been lost.
Yurp has its problems (some countries more than others) but the idea that nice things are possible hasn't been lost.
Bully Boy
I'd guess the Donald has never actually been in a fight. He has people for that.
Donald Trump said he wanted to punch a protester “in the face” after the man disrupted a campaign rally in Las Vegas on Monday night.
Monday, February 22, 2016
The British Exception
Amending this post a little bit, I do understand the opposition by the people in Britain to the somewhat abstract concept of the EU, but not really any (most) elite opposition to it.
The legitimacy of any of these claims can be argued, though I think some have some value, but roughly speaking the sense in Britain is:
1) For various reasons it's a lot easier for people to migrate there within the EU than to other EU countries. One reason is simply that English has become the standard second language that everyone learns. Another is that the bureaucracy is a bit simpler there than elsewhere. Another is that London has a longer history of being a cosmopolitan immigrant-welcoming city. tl;dr: it's easier for most Europeans to move to London tham it is for them to move to Paris or Rome. They move here and take our jobs.
2) Britain obeys the rules more than other countries do. Brussels dictates something, Britain obeys, other countries don't.
3) All the immigrants are taking all of our benefit money, getting free housing etc.
4) Immigrants are horrible, they should all go away.
I guess I've ranked these in the order that I consider to be legitimate. 4) is obviously totally subjective. 3) is largely BS but not totally. I think there's a weird bit of truth to 2). 1) probably is mostly true, though the last sentence is problematic.
The legitimacy of any of these claims can be argued, though I think some have some value, but roughly speaking the sense in Britain is:
1) For various reasons it's a lot easier for people to migrate there within the EU than to other EU countries. One reason is simply that English has become the standard second language that everyone learns. Another is that the bureaucracy is a bit simpler there than elsewhere. Another is that London has a longer history of being a cosmopolitan immigrant-welcoming city. tl;dr: it's easier for most Europeans to move to London tham it is for them to move to Paris or Rome. They move here and take our jobs.
2) Britain obeys the rules more than other countries do. Brussels dictates something, Britain obeys, other countries don't.
3) All the immigrants are taking all of our benefit money, getting free housing etc.
4) Immigrants are horrible, they should all go away.
I guess I've ranked these in the order that I consider to be legitimate. 4) is obviously totally subjective. 3) is largely BS but not totally. I think there's a weird bit of truth to 2). 1) probably is mostly true, though the last sentence is problematic.
Nothing To See Here
I wonder what will happen when "we" finally accept Miami is a goner.
They added that the flooding that is starting to make life miserable in many coastal towns — like Miami Beach; Norfolk, Va.; and Charleston, S.C. — was largely a consequence of those emissions, and that it is likely to grow worse in coming years.
The scientists confirmed previous estimates, but with a larger data set, that if global emissions continue at a high rate over the next few decades, the ocean could rise as much as three or four feet by 2100, as ocean water expands and the great ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica begin to collapse.
Pretty Good Grift
I have no desire to be president. I have no desire to campaign for president. However, I wouldn't mind getting in on the grifter action. If I run do you all promise to send me all your moneys?
Oh, Boris
I follow British politics pretty closely - I'm a citizen! - but I've never quite managed to understand the whole Brexit thing. I'd guess the net result for Britain in practice would be that all of the mostly bad stuff of being in the EU would remain, while all the mostly good stuff (no visa needed to go to Spain!) would go away. Whatever the merits of the EU as a project as a whole, there are some good things, and all the anti-EU stuff seems to be channeled into stopping the good stuff. How the world works these days, I guess.
I saw Boris in a theatre in London once. Stephen Fry was there too! With his ill-fitting suit and backpack and bicycle helmet (he genuinely does ride his bike, but his costume is still a pose) he really did look like a character from the Upper Class Twit of the Year.
I saw Boris in a theatre in London once. Stephen Fry was there too! With his ill-fitting suit and backpack and bicycle helmet (he genuinely does ride his bike, but his costume is still a pose) he really did look like a character from the Upper Class Twit of the Year.
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Free Stuff
I ranted a bit on the twitters last night, which isn't advisable, but at least it keeps me from ranting quite as much on the blog.
I suggested that in my presidential run (which will never happen), I will propose that the Kids Today should be able to pay the in state tuition+fees that the median age member of Congress paid when they were 18. That age is 61, so we roll back to 1973. This lazy blogger could only find data back to 1976, so close enough. Average 4 year public university (on edit: annual) tuition (higher than community colleges) was about $1200 back then, which would be $5000 in today's dollars.
It ain't free, but it's certainly cheaper than what it is today, which is about $9400. Numbers are for in-state students, and are according to the internet which is never wrong.
I taught at UC-Irvine from 2000-2002. Even then you could kind of afford to pay your way through college, by working full time in summer and probably too many part time hours during the academic year. I had plenty of students who seemed to be doing that, though I certainly didn't know the full details of their situations. That isn't possible now, unless your summer job is something like "working at your Dad's car dealership."
The Kids Today start life with a mortgage and no house. Now we all agree they were stupid for borrowing so much money and going to college, but find me one prominent commenter, almost of all of whom went to elite schools, who said anything other than "an elite education is worth every penny!" pre-2007. That's what The Kids Today were told to do. More than that, pointless credentialing is now the norm. It's practically impossible to get a shitty entry level job in most careers without a college degree, and quite hard to get on a good path without a degree from a relatively "respectable" institution.
I suggested that in my presidential run (which will never happen), I will propose that the Kids Today should be able to pay the in state tuition+fees that the median age member of Congress paid when they were 18. That age is 61, so we roll back to 1973. This lazy blogger could only find data back to 1976, so close enough. Average 4 year public university (on edit: annual) tuition (higher than community colleges) was about $1200 back then, which would be $5000 in today's dollars.
It ain't free, but it's certainly cheaper than what it is today, which is about $9400. Numbers are for in-state students, and are according to the internet which is never wrong.
I taught at UC-Irvine from 2000-2002. Even then you could kind of afford to pay your way through college, by working full time in summer and probably too many part time hours during the academic year. I had plenty of students who seemed to be doing that, though I certainly didn't know the full details of their situations. That isn't possible now, unless your summer job is something like "working at your Dad's car dealership."
The Kids Today start life with a mortgage and no house. Now we all agree they were stupid for borrowing so much money and going to college, but find me one prominent commenter, almost of all of whom went to elite schools, who said anything other than "an elite education is worth every penny!" pre-2007. That's what The Kids Today were told to do. More than that, pointless credentialing is now the norm. It's practically impossible to get a shitty entry level job in most careers without a college degree, and quite hard to get on a good path without a degree from a relatively "respectable" institution.
Trump'd
Trump denialism is a weird thing. Of course his nomination is not a sure thing, but he's the one to bet on.
Yuge
I actually don't think Trump is really worse than the rest of them. He just highlights how bad they all are by saying it a bit more clearly (and on some issues, he's actually better).
Whichever Dem wins had better be in it to win it...
Whichever Dem wins had better be in it to win it...
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Saturday Night
Marco Rubio won, Jeb Bush lost, and no one has heard of Cruz or Trump.
It's the narratives that matter, people!
It's the narratives that matter, people!
Fatties
I have a friend who studies this stuff and is somewhat of an expert, so while I risk misrepresenting her summary version about the impacts of weight on health it's something like this:
1) Being merely overweight isn't really correlated with negative health outcomes or increased mortality.
2) Being highly obese isn't really correlated with increased mortality, though it is correlated with negative health outcomes (diabetes, heart disease, etc.).
3) The reasons that obesity is correlated with negative health outcomes but not increased mortality are: a) better modern treatments of those conditions, and b) if you do get seriously ill (like, say, cancer), having extra weight seems to improve your chance of living.
4) On balance it's probably good to never gain too much weight. However, there's basically no evidence that once weight is gained (and again, we're talking about a lot of weight for it to really affect health outcomes), that losing it is actually going to increase your lifespan. If anything, the evidence points in the other direction, that extreme dieting and especially yo-yo dieting (which isn't something anyone recommends, but is common given normal human behavior) actually increases mortality . So don't gain the weight, but once you do, taking it off might not help. Yes there are certain conditions that can be improved by weight loss, but weight loss might actually increase your chances of dying. Might help your knees, but won't necessarily help you live longer.
5) Increasingly the evidence suggests that having a reasonably active lifestyle (not being a complete couch potato) matters much more than the weight itself for the various negative health outcomes that are correlated with weight. Obviously weight itself is correlated with your lifestyle, but the point is that the weight itself is less of an issue.
Anyway, fat-shaming is an aesthetic thing and has only a modest relationship to health concerns, which for some reason only get applied to fat people.
1) Being merely overweight isn't really correlated with negative health outcomes or increased mortality.
2) Being highly obese isn't really correlated with increased mortality, though it is correlated with negative health outcomes (diabetes, heart disease, etc.).
3) The reasons that obesity is correlated with negative health outcomes but not increased mortality are: a) better modern treatments of those conditions, and b) if you do get seriously ill (like, say, cancer), having extra weight seems to improve your chance of living.
4) On balance it's probably good to never gain too much weight. However, there's basically no evidence that once weight is gained (and again, we're talking about a lot of weight for it to really affect health outcomes), that losing it is actually going to increase your lifespan. If anything, the evidence points in the other direction, that extreme dieting and especially yo-yo dieting (which isn't something anyone recommends, but is common given normal human behavior) actually increases mortality . So don't gain the weight, but once you do, taking it off might not help. Yes there are certain conditions that can be improved by weight loss, but weight loss might actually increase your chances of dying. Might help your knees, but won't necessarily help you live longer.
5) Increasingly the evidence suggests that having a reasonably active lifestyle (not being a complete couch potato) matters much more than the weight itself for the various negative health outcomes that are correlated with weight. Obviously weight itself is correlated with your lifestyle, but the point is that the weight itself is less of an issue.
Anyway, fat-shaming is an aesthetic thing and has only a modest relationship to health concerns, which for some reason only get applied to fat people.
Nobody Could Have Predicted
Doing nothing was not an option, so it's good we did something. You know, other than massive humanitarian aid or refugee resettlement.
ISTANBUL — American proxies are now at war with each other in Syria.
Officials with Syrian rebel battalions that receive covert backing from one arm of the U.S. government told BuzzFeed News that they recently began fighting rival rebels supported by another arm of the U.S. government.
In It To Win It
Repeating myself as usual, but whoever wins this damn primary had better have a good plan to win it. I would've been fine with Clinton winning it in '08, until it became clear that her campaign had absolutely no idea what they were doing. I don't think either campaign has displayed that level of incompetence up until now, but there have been some worrying things from both sides.
Savvy
The "expectations game" has become so ingrained in the primary process that everyone gets to make up their own random metrics. Rubio can only be 4.57 percentage points behind! Clinton must win by 25! If Sanders gets 3 votes he's still in it! A fourth place showing will be yuuuuge for Jeb Bush!
It's so silly.
It's so silly.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Yuge
Rubio will win tomorrow by coming in 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th.
Trump will lose by not winning by all that much.
Bush will drop out of the race, proving that he's a better man than any of us deserve.
Cruz who?
Trump will lose by not winning by all that much.
Bush will drop out of the race, proving that he's a better man than any of us deserve.
Cruz who?
Transit By People Who Don't Use Transit
I'm less anti-streetcar than some urban transit nerds. It's not that the general critiques are wrong, but I do think they miss that even a slow in traffic fixed route system has advantages over buses. Those advantages aren't necessarily worth the cost, but I'd rather have a nice trolley than F-35s. We spend lots of money on stupid things, I'll take spending some money on nice things, even if they aren't as nice as they should be.
But the BQX does sound like a project hatched by people who aren't aware that lots of people in New York City actually use the public transit system to get around. Without fare integration and proper subway connections it's just a ridiculous project.
For some reason people who don't ride transit make all of our transit decisions. And they fail to even consider the reasons they don't ride transit when they do so. It needs to be convenient and reasonably frequent. If there's one thing non-transit riders could bring to the table it's an understanding of why they don't ride it.
But the BQX does sound like a project hatched by people who aren't aware that lots of people in New York City actually use the public transit system to get around. Without fare integration and proper subway connections it's just a ridiculous project.
For some reason people who don't ride transit make all of our transit decisions. And they fail to even consider the reasons they don't ride transit when they do so. It needs to be convenient and reasonably frequent. If there's one thing non-transit riders could bring to the table it's an understanding of why they don't ride it.
Strange Dreams
Last night I had a dream that the rock band Rush (yes, just 3 of them), were playing an exhibition football game (full uniforms, full stadium) against the surviving members of the cast of the 1960s Batman TV show.
All Going According To Plan
Didn't we already win the glorious war of liberation in Libya like 3 times?
WASHINGTON -- American warplanes struck multiple targets in Libya overnight, hitting what was apparently an Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) training camp and a senior extremist leader, a senior U.S. military official confirmed to CBS News Friday.
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Someone Played A Birthday Prank And Tuned My Teevee To Fox News
"Let's go into the issue of the Clinton campaign imploding." - Sean Hannity.
The Chosen One
NPR just informed me that Rubio's campaign has been a "rollercoaster ride" with him being "up" (!) in 3rd place in Iowa, and "down" at 5th place in New Hampshire.
Pretty sure it's all been down, but I'm not a savvy NPR pundit.
Pretty sure it's all been down, but I'm not a savvy NPR pundit.
Fleek
I live on the internet, and still don't know what that is. Yes I can google it. Sometimes I'm just surprised when I manage to remain ignorant of things without really trying. Also, get off my lawn.
Both Sides
Does a black president who was elected twice have the right to nominate a Supreme Court justice as the Constitution mandates?
It's an open question, really.
It's an open question, really.
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
People Are Mean to Me on the Internets
It's 2016. I think we should all understand that people are assholes on the internet. The latest genre is people complaining that people are mean to them on the internets. Well, duh. That's how the internets work. And, no, I'm not talking about stalking and harassment which is an entirely different thing (and generally something which affects women). I'm just talking about the WAHHH SOMEONE SAID SOMETHING MEAN ABOUT ME ON TWITTER as if it's a badge of honor.
Stop whining.
Stop whining.
How Rich Do You Need To Be?
One of my minor obsessions is trying to figure out just exactly how wealthy you need to be in order to reduce life's little hassles to basically nothing. I know that's pretty much impossible, but how wealthy do you need to be to have someone take care of all of your bills, fight with the cable company, book all of your travel, and just generally insulate you from the daily bullshit that most of us have to deal with. I think the answer is that you have to be pretty damn rich, and that's a problem. Modern life shouldn't be so complicated.
I Do Have A Penis!!! I Even Wrote My Name On It!!!!
Is there anyone more ridiculous than Jebya?
America. pic.twitter.com/TeduJkwQF3
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) February 16, 2016
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Make It Easy
Life is complicated. It shouldn't be. For most people, filing taxes should take two seconds. Every interaction with the health care system shouldn't take hours on the phone. Cost is an issue, of course, but it's also time. Why is all of this stuff so complicated? Why do we have to worry our beautiful minds with this stuff?
When I run for president*, I will promise to just make everything easier.
*not actually going to run for president.
When I run for president*, I will promise to just make everything easier.
*not actually going to run for president.
Marco Rubio Will Be The Real Winner Of Every Primary, No Matter How Badly He Does
The blatant cheerleading for Rubio by our supposedly "objective" press has been one of the funniest things about this primary season. I don't really get it, as he just seems to be horrible. Not horrible because he's conservative and I don't like conservatives, but horrible because he's just a horribly inept candidate. I'm not just talking about the theatre criticism, though our press corps loves theatre criticism so they should be aware that he's horrible in that sense, but he just seems to be stupid and silly and horrible and just the worst. Did I mention I hate Rubio? I hate Rubio.
Shit Is Fucked Up And Bullshit
If only there was someone with executive authority to stop this stuff.
U.S. Marshals armed with automatic weapons arrested a Texas man for not paying a $1,500 student loan from three decades ago, he claims.
Paul Aker said he was surprised at his Houston-area home by seven people in combat gear.
"I was wondering, why are you here," he told Fox 26. "I am home, I haven't done anything."
Aker said he didn't receive any notice or warning about the loan, which he received in 1987.
Monday, February 15, 2016
It's Tribalism
Most conservatives don't really give a shit about most of the elite "conservative" agenda. Sure they like the sound of tax cuts and they need someone to hate this week, but otherwise it's almost entirely tribal identity. I'm not saying there's no equivalent on the liberal side, but it isn't nearly as strong.
It's Out
Part 4 of Tim Bousquet's opus, DEAD WRONG, behind the pay wall of The Halifax Examiner. So sad looking at the faces of all those dead women, who the police didn't particularly care enough about to seriously investigate their murders.
Vaporware
Just checking in with one of my obsessions. This will never open, but everyone pretending that it will open will still manage to get rich. The grift is strong.
Neither the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority nor the state Economic Development Authority has imposed a deadline on Triple Five, the developer of American Dream Meadowlands, to complete the 2.9-million-square-foot shopping and entertainment complex.
Triple Five officials have said recently that their goal is to issue the first segment of a $1 billion bond offering next month, followed by the second segment in April. The EDA in the fall of 2013 approved Triple Five's plan to issue bonds related to a total tax break of $390 million, with two six-month extensions granted in 2014 and another 90-day extension in mid-2015.
Both Sides
NPR helpfully informed me that Republicans don't think there should be a new Supreme Court nominee until we have a new president.
Sunday, February 14, 2016
Consumer Electronics
Spending some time in tech support hell, it occurs to me that the one set of consumer electronics devices that seem to mostly work and last longer than a couple of years are TVs, even the newfangled ones. Am I wrong?
GetOffMyLawnism
I know I frequently return to this subject, but I really don't get it. I don't have kids. I'd think I should be the kind of person the hates The Kids Today. People generally have kids. And most of them seem to hate The Kids Today. Like really hate them. We go through this in every generation, but it's usually just a trendy "slackers" kind of thing which fades after a couple of months. I see so much hate directed at 20somethings. The 20somethings I'm exposed to (not a representative sample, of course) are about 50X smarter than anyone I ever knew at that age (including the man in the mirror). I don't get it.
Both Sides
It'll be interesting to see if the Republican demand that Obama not be allowed to appoint anyone to the Supreme Court because he only has >11 months left of the second term he was elected to will just be treated as the new normal.
The "media" might be liberal in some ways (though even in those ways not nearly as much as their reputation), but ever since I've been paying attention, when the Republicans kick the soccer ball, they chase it.
The "media" might be liberal in some ways (though even in those ways not nearly as much as their reputation), but ever since I've been paying attention, when the Republicans kick the soccer ball, they chase it.
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Both Sides
The press corps that spent 25 years or so blaming all of the ills of Washington, the fact that it all got so mean and tipnronnie didn't go for drinks anymore, on the "Borking" of Bork (who was quite the lunatic), will treat as perfectly normal the claim that a president with almost 11 months left in his term has no right to nominate anyone to the Supreme Court.
The title of this post is wrong, for reasons I leave as an exercise to the readers.
The title of this post is wrong, for reasons I leave as an exercise to the readers.
Still Sitting
Bertha's still taking a nap.
On Monday, Gov. Inslee will discuss Bertha's safety, a recent sinkhole, and other issues. But for the time being, the governor is holding firm that Bertha isn't going anywhere.
"I don't think it's good management to allow a tunneling project to go under the fragile viaduct without assuring the safety of its condition," Inslee said. "I don't think that's bad management. I think that's darn good management that we are pursuing on a most difficult problem — where the contractor has not performed."
Morning Thread
I'll leave youse to figure out what day it is.
Little Liza Jane was my introduction to Nina Simone.
Little Liza Jane was my introduction to Nina Simone.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Lizard People
Since it's Friday, I will admit to believing in one conspiracy theory. There are lizard people. They live among us.
Butterfly Wings
Sometimes we manage to make things happen.
Clinton's subtle shift in tone on Social Security is a major victory for liberal bloggers and organizations that have advocated for expanding the program, such as the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Social Security Works. It is just one sign that the Democratic Party has become more amenable to government intervention in the economy.
The Good Thing
The EU project is complicated. I think it's difficult to dismiss it as "good" or "bad" because it has so many pieces. But some of those pieces clearly benefit the majority of people and some of them really don't. Borderless travel in the Schengen zone is one of the big benefits. Taking that away really undermines the whole project.
Cash Cows
It isn't the case that everything in higher ed, especially public higher ed, needs to pay for itself, but absurd administration and faculty salaries in law schools have long been justified by the fact that they bring in the big bucks. Increasingly this is not the case.
And, no, law professors can't just go work for big law instead. It doesn't work that way. It never did.
And, no, law professors can't just go work for big law instead. It doesn't work that way. It never did.
Friday Morning. For Real!
Here's the Criminal Complaint against Clivan Bundy, just in case you're looking for something to read with your morning coffee.
Thursday, February 11, 2016
In It To Win It
Whoever wins the Democratic primary has a responsiblity to win this damn election. I know that nobody can control that outcome with complete certainty, but I hope both candidates understand that this is their responsibility. Once they win the nomination, they have one job. I don't really think any electability arguments are particularly persuasive. I can see how Bernie Stalin and Hitlery Clinton will both face some problems (people are free to have their opinions on this, I just don't really have one). The point I'm making is...it's your job to win. Make it so.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
Stock market crashes provide the regular reminder that central banks are much more in tune with Teh Markets than they are with labor markets. Unemployment? No big whoop. Stock market down? PANIC!!!!!!!!
So We're Poisoning People? Okay, Don't Tell Them
I don't know how people can be this horrible.
"They should have alerted the schools and they didn't," James Henry, Genesee County's environmental health supervisor, who had been kept in the dark until after the press conference, told MLive Wednesday.
News that Gov. Snyder requested that this information not be shared with health officials until after the press conference came from a FOIAed email sent by Henry to a colleague. MLive reports that about a week after the news conference, MDEQ officials met with Henry and then-drinking water chief Liane Shekter Smith; two days later Henry emailed county Health Officer Mark Valacak to recap what was discussed. In this obtained email, MLive says Henry explained to Valacak that MDEQ claimed the governor had ordered them to delay the release.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
The Fiorina Boom Is Over
She's out, too. I remember all the SURGE press she got after her performance at a kiddie table debate.
There were kiddie table debates.
This is been so absurd.
There were kiddie table debates.
This is been so absurd.
Fan Service
I guess it's a danger for any political campaign. Give the fans what you think they want in a way which is exclusionary and alienating to non-fans. Some of that's appropriate, of course. Gotta keep up the excitement levels. Gotta motivate. But it can go too far.
Big Chicken Heads Back to the Coop
So many bridges to close.
JUST IN: @ABC News has learned NJ Gov. Chris Christie expected to formally suspend his presidential campaign as early as today
— Action News on 6abc (@6abc) February 10, 2016
That Worked Out Well
At least there are more guns and stuff there, so that's a win.
After Iraq and Libya worked out so well, nobody could have predicted.
GAZIANTEP, Turkey — The United States and its allies have spent many millions of dollars backing Syrian opposition fighters they deem relatively moderate and secular, and civilian groups whose work on small businesses and local councils they billed as the cornerstone of Syria’s future.
But the very Syrians who benefited — and risked their lives in the process — now say that investment is in danger of going down the drain, and they see little urgency from Washington, diplomatic or military, to save it.
After Iraq and Libya worked out so well, nobody could have predicted.
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Bullies
One funny thing is that the bully the press luuuuuurrrrvved - Christie - is gonna go home to Jersey and ponder his future, and the bully the press hated, even as they gave him 3 million hours of free coverage, is winning yuge.
The political press love their GOP bully daddies - no Democrat could get approval with that behavior - but the political press have little understanding of what people actually like (and they do!) about GOP daddies. The Christie run really was the most hilarious thing about this election cycle.
The political press love their GOP bully daddies - no Democrat could get approval with that behavior - but the political press have little understanding of what people actually like (and they do!) about GOP daddies. The Christie run really was the most hilarious thing about this election cycle.
The Kids Today
My other issue is the infantilization of The Left. They're uninformed, unreasonable, silly, young, naive, idealistic, and, yes, stupid. And they never ever vote except when they get to take a selfie of it!!! It combines unfair characterizations of The Kids Today by people who really want them to get off their lawn with unfair characterizations of The Left.
The good news is that apparently The Kids Today include anybody under 45, so welcome to my second childhood.
The good news is that apparently The Kids Today include anybody under 45, so welcome to my second childhood.
The Left
I'm not interested in convincing anyone to vote for Sanders over Clinton or vice versa. I don't really have that power, anyway. I am, however, sensitive to the way that our mainstream discourse treats The Left as deviant, while the mythical "center" beltway consensus is treated as tablets from heaven, and right wing lunacy as True America. And right now Sanders is the representative of The Left. His leftism is hardly outside of what should be mainstream political ideas. Whether achievable or not, they're really aspirational mainstream liberal ideas. He isn't calling for the nationalization of all of the means of production. Make America a bit more like Scandinavia. Really not crazy.
That's not an argument for voting for Sanders. Vote for who you want! There are good reasons to vote for Clinton. I don't know who I'll vote for, though by the time my primary rolls around it likely won't matter much. Maybe I'll write in Kodos. But spurning Bernie-ism, which is distinct from spurning Bernie, is spurning liberalism.
That's not an argument for voting for Sanders. Vote for who you want! There are good reasons to vote for Clinton. I don't know who I'll vote for, though by the time my primary rolls around it likely won't matter much. Maybe I'll write in Kodos. But spurning Bernie-ism, which is distinct from spurning Bernie, is spurning liberalism.
Monday, February 08, 2016
Prison
BREAKING: Kathryn Knott sentenced to 5 -10 months in prison, two years probation for Center City gay bashing.
— Anna Orso (@anna_orso) February 8, 2016
Judge Roxanne Covington in sentencing Knott: "This behavior is a violation of basic human rights."
— Anna Orso (@anna_orso) February 8, 2016
The other two defendants copped to plea deals and got 3 years probation. She fought it in court, and the jury found her guilty. I wasn't there and don't know what happened, but given that the jury found her to be guilty it would have been troubling if the judge had let her off without a prison sentence.
The Big Money
Money is a problem in politics, but it's wrong to focus solely on money in federal election campaigns. It isn't that I don't think big money in campaigns is a problem, it's that I increasingly don't think it's the big problem, or certainly not the only problem, at least at the federal level. And as I actually had to tangle with the FEC back in the "MUST REGULATE THE BLOGGERS" era, I got a pretty good appreciation for the extreme genuine free speech issues in trying to regulate political advocacy. Political speech should be our most protected speech, and there is no regulatory framework that is going to be able to resolve the tension between speech and money very well.
Congressional staffers are looking to make nice with lobbyists to get higher paying jobs (and lower level congressional staffers really do get paid shit). People who work in regulatory agencies are looking to cash out with jobs in the industries they regulate. And, yes, former Cabinet secretaries are able to score the truly big post-Cabinet bucks.
Congressional staffers are looking to make nice with lobbyists to get higher paying jobs (and lower level congressional staffers really do get paid shit). People who work in regulatory agencies are looking to cash out with jobs in the industries they regulate. And, yes, former Cabinet secretaries are able to score the truly big post-Cabinet bucks.
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEE
I claim no actual knowledge of what's currently going on, but my guess is that we're having highly leveraged world problems again. Oil producers can't pay their loans, stock prices fall, margin calls start coming in, people sell sell sell to pay their debts, etc.
Or I could be wrong!
...and 15 seconds after I wrote this, I see this.
Or I could be wrong!
...and 15 seconds after I wrote this, I see this.
Morning Thread
Here's Echidne on the CDC's recommendation that any woman of childbearing age, not on birth control, should abstain from drinking alcohol, entirely. We're all justBaby Making Factories.
Sunday, February 07, 2016
Boy Wonder
I didn't see the debate, but I gather all the serious people now see Rubio the way I've always seen him.
Heckuva job, establishment.
Heckuva job, establishment.
Saturday, February 06, 2016
Nothing To See Here
Move along, folks.
Radioactive material has been detected in the groundwater below a nuclear power plant north of New York City, prompting a state investigation on Saturday.
Governor Andrew Cuomo ordered a review after saying that “alarming levels of radioactivity” were found at monitoring wells at the Indian Point energy center in Buchanan, 40 miles north of Manhattan.
DEAD WRONG
Part 3 of Tim Bousquet's investigative series in which he asks, If Glenn Assoun Didn't Kill Brenda Way, Who Did? Bousquet has some ideas of who may, in fact, be the culprit. Go read.
What About Tagg, Matt, Josh, Ben, and Craig
This is silly.
It's not that I think Chelsea Clinton should be immune from press coverage, but the news angle is what exactly? INVESTIGATE HER BECAUSE! If there's some actual news story, publish it, but the idea that Chelsea Clinton must be scrutinized because she's a Clinton is ridiculous. Mitt's brood never had any scrutiny, and I don't know why they necessarily should have, even though they (or 4 of them at least? I can't remember) were constant campaign surrogates.
It just sounds like "the press should write stories about Chelsea Clinton for the sake of writing stories about Chelsea Clinton." Clinton rules journalism.
Politico’s Jack Shafer wrote Friday that it is “time for Chelsea Clinton’s easy ride to end.” The former — and perhaps future — first daughter turns 36 this month, is vice chair of the Clinton Foundation and a board member of IAC, and is active in her mother’s White House campaign. She’s not a kid anymore. And she’s most definitely a public figure.
It's not that I think Chelsea Clinton should be immune from press coverage, but the news angle is what exactly? INVESTIGATE HER BECAUSE! If there's some actual news story, publish it, but the idea that Chelsea Clinton must be scrutinized because she's a Clinton is ridiculous. Mitt's brood never had any scrutiny, and I don't know why they necessarily should have, even though they (or 4 of them at least? I can't remember) were constant campaign surrogates.
It just sounds like "the press should write stories about Chelsea Clinton for the sake of writing stories about Chelsea Clinton." Clinton rules journalism.
Not Nearly As Freedomy As Our Freedom Bombs
We say the same things.
I know we are Good and the Russians are Bad and our motives are Pure and their motives are Impure, but can any of the Very Serious People in charge of the Foreign Policy Community notice that maybe bombing and arming are, you know, Bad, whatever the motives?
Earlier this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said publicly that his government saw no reason to stop the airstrikes, which Russia says are targeting “terrorist” groups, including those fighting with the Syrian opposition against the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, said Friday that accusations that Russia is targeting civilians and opposition forces were in “bad taste.”
“They’d better put the blame on those who back terrorists,” Churkin said as he entered a Security Council closed-door meeting on Syria.
I know we are Good and the Russians are Bad and our motives are Pure and their motives are Impure, but can any of the Very Serious People in charge of the Foreign Policy Community notice that maybe bombing and arming are, you know, Bad, whatever the motives?
Friday, February 05, 2016
Taking Away The Punchbowl
I've asked this before, but don't believe I've had anything close to a satisfactory answer. What's the point of advocating any economic policies (either using left or right wing logic) on the basis that they will boost economic growth and create jobs if as soon as the Fed thinks that there might be upward pressure on wages at some point in the distant future they're going to raise interest rates? If that's the game we're playing then the only way to improve the economic fortunes of the vast majority of citizens is through massive redistribution.
So, what's a good health care system, then?
I love this article because I'm really into the health care issue, I cringe every time a friend or relative who lives in America tells me they've got something that requires medical care, and people lying about the issue sends my Outrage Meter into the stratosphere. It's not a quick read but it's good and accessible and informative and also it points out that there's way too much politics going on when certain people who used to know this stuff suddenly don't anymore and start spouting the company line. "Meet the New Harry and Louise" - go read.
Thursday, February 04, 2016
It's Always 1972 or 1994 or 2010
Dems don't always win elections. They lose they presidency, sometimes in a landslide! They lose the House. They lose the Senate. Sometimes they win these things, too!
For some reason (we can guess what it is) there is a loss narrative focused on 1972 and 1994 in particular, though 2010 somewhat similarly. Those are the elections Dems lost!!! Of course they lost plenty of other elections, also, too. But, really, we need to learn the lessons of 1972.
For some reason (we can guess what it is) there is a loss narrative focused on 1972 and 1994 in particular, though 2010 somewhat similarly. Those are the elections Dems lost!!! Of course they lost plenty of other elections, also, too. But, really, we need to learn the lessons of 1972.
Build That Wall
We have to do something about the Canadian menace.
The nation with the most visitors who failed to leave at the end of their authorized stay was Canada, followed by Mexico and Brazil, according to the report.
Every Little Thing They Do Is Magic
The press obsession with every move by the 17 (and now dwindled) Republican candidates has been bizarre. They all got their profiles, their "surging" narratives, their multiple Sunday show appearances, the kiddie table debates, etc. Dems would not be given this type of treatment if they had a mirror image set of candidates. There would be no kiddie table debates. There would not be elaborate press coverage of candidates polling at 3% over several months.
Loser #1 and Loser #2 are focusing their attention on the guy who won Iowa by placing third.
So bizarre.
Loser #1 and Loser #2 are focusing their attention on the guy who won Iowa by placing third.
So bizarre.
The End Of The Grift
It was a pretty good run.
CONCORD, N.H. — Ben Carson, the famed neurosurgeon whose bid for the Republican presidential nomination has struggled to keep pace with rivals, will cut more than 50 staff positions Thursday as part of an overhaul and downsizing of his campaign.
Salaries are being significantly reduced. Carson’s traveling entourage will shrink to only a handful of advisers. And instead of flying on private jets, Carson may soon return to commercial flights.
Wednesday, February 03, 2016
Loser
I continue to be astonished at the Donald's extended whine today. Yes I know that's how narcissists tend to react when the world fails to love them as much as they deserve, but I thought he understood that his entire stage persona was about him being the bully, not the victim. Less self-aware - and aware - than I thought.
Jobs and Careers
One thing which I think the political press is actually very aware of but doesn't quite write about enough is that for many people, a presidential campaign is their career opportunity. I'm not accusing people of corruption. There's no contradiction between working for (or supporting) a candidate and hoping you get to ride his/her coattails for a career. It's fine. But it is the case that for some, betting on a candidate is also betting on themselves. They win, you win. Hopefully, anyway.
From Winner To Whiner
I didn't think Trump would lose the plot this quickly. You're the Alpha, Donald. No whining. If you got out-hustled, you double down on being a bully, don't start whining.
Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 3, 2016
And Then There Were 57
Actually I've lost track of the number of people in the clown car, but Rand Paul just took his big red nose and went home.
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
"Moderate Republicans"
They're basically people who the political press like personally. It has almost nothing to do with issues. Maybe a little bit with tone (only whistle so the dogs can hear!) but not issues.
The Left
In the United States, The Left is always childish, impractical, ignorant, silly, and unserious. Liberal solutions to liberal concerns have been taken off the table, replaced at best with conservative solutions to liberal concerns. Serious people know such compromises can get through Congress with a bunch of bipartisanyship, until, as always, Lucy pulls the football away. And even when conservative solutions are proposed (tax credits! insurance exchanges! incentives!), they're a Rube Goldberg mess that people have to fight for constantly.
In the richest country in the world (close enough), life shouldn't be so hard.
In the richest country in the world (close enough), life shouldn't be so hard.
Primary Hell
Most of the time Democrats have a "hack gap." For some reason that disappears in primary season.
Monday, February 01, 2016
GOP Savior
The one thing that I'm hoping will happen is that the Very Serious GOP Establishment (you know, rich people who think they're smarter than they are), make a desperate attempt to prop up an anti-Trump.
MITTENS!
...funny, also, too, frightening.
MITTENS!
...funny, also, too, frightening.
Both officials and donors within the powerful group hope the real estate tycoon's White House bid dies a natural death so the group can avoid spending a penny of its $889 million 2016 cycle budget against him. But the Koch network's conversations over the weekend concerning what to do about Trump were more detailed than previously revealed.
On the eve of the Iowa causes, Koch network officials revealed in a private meeting with donors that they had commissioned focus group research to identify Trump’s vulnerabilities.
Punditing
If Trump wins it'll be yuge.
Rubio just needs to come in 3rd, 4th, or 5th to get a big win.
Clinton loses if she wins, and loses big if she loses.
If Sanders wins we have to keep talking about him, if not let us never speak of him again.
Whatever happens it'll be excellent news for Chris Christie.
Rubio just needs to come in 3rd, 4th, or 5th to get a big win.
Clinton loses if she wins, and loses big if she loses.
If Sanders wins we have to keep talking about him, if not let us never speak of him again.
Whatever happens it'll be excellent news for Chris Christie.
Who Won't?
I guess it's part of the hangover from the weird 2008 primary, but I don't get this whole "all good Democrats must agree to vote for the Democrat in November no matter who the candidate is" thing which keeps being floated. It sounds very sober and serious but a) pretty sure people who give a shit will vote, and people who don't will not, as is always the case and b) your very serious and sober call for people to vote isn't going to convince anyone.
I'm probably just grumpy because I read too much of the internet and I see so much stuff which is neither designed to persuade nor rally, but is instead just about someone's need to be right on the internet and claim that other people are wrong on the internet.
I'm probably just grumpy because I read too much of the internet and I see so much stuff which is neither designed to persuade nor rally, but is instead just about someone's need to be right on the internet and claim that other people are wrong on the internet.
8000 Columns Later
I get that Robert Samuelson's pushes Fred Hiatt's agenda, but he has written the same column so many times that even Fred must get bored of it by now. And Robert (not the son of Paul) isn't even clever enough to come up with a new angle for the DEFICIT WILL KILL US ALL story.
Game Day
A silly contest which only matters because of the attention it gets.
American politics is awesome.
American politics is awesome.