Wednesday, May 31, 2017
Uber, But For Journalism
Longform!
tl;dr Uber's fortunes depend on it being a monopoly (multiple local monopolies), which it has no realistic path to achieving.
Which brings me back to my original point, made years ago, that whatever the problem with local cab regulation, there is a reason the market depends on rate regulation and supply restriction...
Uber’s potential aspirations toward monopoly are a sensitive matter — in discussing how Uber Pool became more efficient the more people used it, McClendon referred to Uber’s ideal state as a “monopoly,” before correcting himself to call it “not a monopoly, but a heavily used service” — and while every company dreams of owning its entire market, the question of whether Uber can do so has become murky. One Uber investor told me he no longer sees ride-hailing as winner-take-all but didn’t want to speak for the company; when I put the question to Rachel Holt, Uber’s head of North American operations, she ducked it by praising the value of competition and saying she didn’t have a crystal ball.
Recent events have made a monopoly harder to imagine, to say nothing of how regulators might react. While Uber said its business in the United States was briefly profitable early last year, the company had been forced back into the red by Lyft, which had secured a new round of venture funding and begun offering more subsidies of its own to attract drivers and riders. Uber’s woeful early 2017 had also helped Lyft, which saw ridership increase 137 percent compared to the year prior. And while so far Lyft remains content to focus on the U.S., Uber’s ambitions for a global reach have added further costs. It is now in 75 countries, and faces an array of regional and local operators in each market. Its most formidable rival may actually be Didi Chuxing, a Chinese company that has already clocked more rides than Uber and recently raised $5.5 billion to help it compete in new markets. Uber spent two years, and $2 billion, trying to break into the Chinese market but eventually called a truce last year and agreed to sell its Chinese business to Didi in exchange for a stake in the company.
tl;dr Uber's fortunes depend on it being a monopoly (multiple local monopolies), which it has no realistic path to achieving.
Which brings me back to my original point, made years ago, that whatever the problem with local cab regulation, there is a reason the market depends on rate regulation and supply restriction...
Cars Are Bad
Dense urban areas as "green" in the sense of having a smaller carbon footprint for a variety of reasons, but the concentration of emissions is bad locally. And it's the damn cars.
Researchers at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability found that air quality near 405, when it was closed, was 83 percent better than during a typical weekend. What's even more amazing is that Carmageddon, in just two days, made the air cleaner in surrounding regions. Parts of West Los Angeles and Santa Monica saw air quality improve by as much as 75 percent.
You Can Never Win
Read the details yourselves, but basically the insanity behind Uber is that they think they can "win" and then the competition will disappear and they will have a monopoly. The entire premise of companies like Uber is you can "disrupt" an existing business by having low entry costs and cheap scaleability. And therefore perpetual actual and potential competition.
Something like Uber can be a nice business. As can its numerous competitors. It just can't take over the world.
Something like Uber can be a nice business. As can its numerous competitors. It just can't take over the world.
The Great Thing About The Trump Era
Is journalists and headline writers get to keep coming up with new euphemisms for "racist."
Actually that's not so great.
Actually that's not so great.
Tuesday, May 30, 2017
A Final Suck On This Day (Yes It Was Yesterday) Anecdote
I could never verify this, of course, and the precise details in the email have been lost to time, so just take this as fiction, but many many years ago someone emailed me with a story which went something like this:
Hey, I was walking around Manhattan and I bumped into Tom Friedman. I was a bit drunk so I said "hey, Paul Krugman!" He said, "No, I'm the other guy." I said, "Oh, Tom Friedman! Isn't it true that you went on Charlie Rose and said we went to war to tell Iraqis to suck on this?" Friedman responded, "That doesn't sound like something I would say."
Lola
I have no deep thoughts on this, but I grew up in an especially homophobic time and place (generic suburbs, 60s-70s backlash, reagan, aids, moral majority, etc.). A time (as a teen) when calling something "gay" was an all purpose devastating insult, and when being identified, in any way, with being gay was the quickest path to complete social ostracism. Yet we all jammed out to Lola! Lola was the best song! And we all know the lyrics. They aren't subtle.
I have no explanation. Just one of those weird things that always stuck with me.
(not getting into the gay vs. trans distinction here, this was the early 80s and we were teens, we didn't get such things)
I have no explanation. Just one of those weird things that always stuck with me.
(not getting into the gay vs. trans distinction here, this was the early 80s and we were teens, we didn't get such things)
The World Is Tiny
Contra Mr. World is Flat, the a big problem we face is that for most people (I'm thinking of the US but not just of course), the World is Tiny, or specifically Our Individual World is Tiny, not extending much beyond where we live. Yes the magical internets give us a window into the entire world on demand, but Other Places really are just Storyland if you have never traveled. China is about as real as Oz, and most people aren't that interested in finding out about either of them. Even Canada is a fictional land (it's not even a real country anyway).
I'm not blaming people. Travel is an expensive luxury (requiring both money and time, neither of which are in tremendous supply for most people). Fox News tales of things like "Muslim No Go Zones" where neither non-Muslims nor local law enforcement ever enter in Paris and London sound real, because basically anything you could say about Paris or London would sound real to people who have never been to Europe.
I'm not blaming people. Travel is an expensive luxury (requiring both money and time, neither of which are in tremendous supply for most people). Fox News tales of things like "Muslim No Go Zones" where neither non-Muslims nor local law enforcement ever enter in Paris and London sound real, because basically anything you could say about Paris or London would sound real to people who have never been to Europe.
Still Sucking
Yes we laugh at Little Tommy Friedman, age 9, and the "Suck. On. This." is extra funny coming from a Very Serious Pundit, but the reason to return to that piece over and over again is "burst the [terrorism] bubble" was the kind of thing that passed for Deep Wisdom at the time. We have long been ruled by idiots.
Monday, May 29, 2017
Almost Forgot
Happy Suck On This Day! Has it been 14 years already???
(Ht reader th)
I think it [the invasion of Iraq] was unquestionably worth doing, Charlie.
...
We needed to go over there, basically, um, and um, uh, take out a very big stick right in the heart of that world and burst that bubble, and there was only one way to do it.
...
What they needed to see was American boys and girls going house to house, from Basra to Baghdad, um and basically saying, "Which part of this sentence don't you understand?"
You don't think, you know, we care about our open society, you think this bubble fantasy, we're just gonna to let it grow?
Well Suck. On. This.
Okay.
That, Charlie, was what this war was about. We could've hit Saudi Arabia, it was part of that bubble. We coulda hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could.
(Ht reader th)
Probably Not Close Enough
But judging by the recent polls, the Tories have gone from appearing to be about to destroy the Labour party for all eternity to just about holding on to what they have in about 2 weeks. Of course who knows what will happen on election day. But, really, "if you get dementia we're going to take your house" while pretty much US policy in practice, probably wasn't the best thing to put in your campaign document...
Tories are horrible, and May and her people are too stupid to not say the quiet bits out loud.
Tories are horrible, and May and her people are too stupid to not say the quiet bits out loud.
Rich Guys and DUI
Tiger Woods arrested for DUI. My usual "you're rich, hire a damn driver" statement.
Not that anyone should drink and drive, but I'm mildly sympathetic to relatively low alcohol first time offenders. We built a world in which you have to drive everywhere and where alcohol consumption is "normal" and then tell people not to do both simultaneously. I mean, they shouldn't! Don't do it! But many places even getting a taxi home isn't an option.
Unless you're as rich as Tiger Woods. Then you can hire a damn driver.
Not that anyone should drink and drive, but I'm mildly sympathetic to relatively low alcohol first time offenders. We built a world in which you have to drive everywhere and where alcohol consumption is "normal" and then tell people not to do both simultaneously. I mean, they shouldn't! Don't do it! But many places even getting a taxi home isn't an option.
Unless you're as rich as Tiger Woods. Then you can hire a damn driver.
Shit People
We don't live in a "show your papers" society. Nobody carries their passport around with them. Driver's license, sure, but that's not proof of citizenship to the Feds. ICE detains people because they're brown, and then laughably asserts that they wouldn't do so if people had evidence of their citizenship. I bet half the country would have a hard time producing clear evidence of citizenship, and 99.9% couldn't do it on the spot.
It's a fascist, racist organization dedicated to terrorizing brown people.
It's a fascist, racist organization dedicated to terrorizing brown people.
Who To Root For
Related, who to root for in the White House? I mean, given the way Trump is, it matters who works for him. Jared seems to be evil in a lazy banal sort of way, and concerned about the Javanka Brand. Lazy being Good in this context. Others seem to be a bit more dedicated to evil. They're all stupid. So complicated.
Sunday, May 28, 2017
Everybody Should Learn To Code
One of my (I am getting old and cranky so there are many) pet peeves is any version of this. All knowledge is good. Some learning also teaches you to think and learn better. Some skills might have good job prospects associated with them, but such things are "trendy" to some degree so by the time you decide you should learn to code you will have probably missed the gravy train.
I've heard many versions of this: everybody should learn a bit of economics, everybody should knit, everybody should garden, everybody should study math, everybody should study Latin, everybody should take humanities, everybody should be STEM majors, everybody should learn an instrument, everybody should..
I mean, everybody should! It's all good. But we can't all do it all, and while a bit of generalization is good, we all gotta specialize a bit both in our vocations and avocations...
I've heard many versions of this: everybody should learn a bit of economics, everybody should knit, everybody should garden, everybody should study math, everybody should study Latin, everybody should take humanities, everybody should be STEM majors, everybody should learn an instrument, everybody should..
I mean, everybody should! It's all good. But we can't all do it all, and while a bit of generalization is good, we all gotta specialize a bit both in our vocations and avocations...
Imagine Working With These People
Everybody in the White House is horrible. And while I get that horrible people find a certain kinship sometimes, you still are working with a bunch of other horrible people who all spend their whole day whining, er, leaking, to the press.
New World Order
Maybe not exactly how I envisaged the end of the America empire.
BERLIN — German Chancellor Angela Merkel is urging European Union nations to stick together in the face of new uncertainty over the United States and other challenges.
Merkel said Sunday at a campaign event in Bavaria that “the times in which we can fully count on others are somewhat over, as I have experienced in the past few days.”
Welcome Home
And happy Sunday to your lawyers!
It is my opinion that many of the leaks coming out of the White House are fabricated lies made up by the #FakeNews media.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 28, 2017
Morning Thread
Still a few days left in Echidne's fundraiser week. Daily blogging is hard work and bloggers like Echidne, who bring a wealth of experience, knowledge and thought deserve to be compensated. If you can manage a few sheckles, now is the time to donate. After all, how many feminist bloggers with a Ph.D in economics and an expert in health care do we have?
Saturday, May 27, 2017
The Beat So Sweet
Journalism is corrupt. Of course it is! I mean, journalists (and their editors) face trade-offs like everybody does. Perhaps it's worthwhile printing the occasional bit of bullshit in exchange for access! I am not actually arguing with this. I do think there's a bit of a problem with this because most readers have no sense of how the sausage gets made, and journalists like to present themselves as objective truthtellers. Sometimes even the very good ones will print some bullshit as a bit of investment. Again, I am not even saying that this is wrong. But sometimes printing bullshit has big consequences, and that is important, also, too...
Life Without Javanka
Aside from his looming legal difficulties, conflicting tales about whether Jared is ready to take his ball and go home. So much for peace in the Middle East and solving the opioid crisis. I had such high hopes.
Javanka are there because Trump needs someone to be in the room to make sure he doesn't wander off and to make sure he "remembers" what is said to him. Without them...
Javanka are there because Trump needs someone to be in the room to make sure he doesn't wander off and to make sure he "remembers" what is said to him. Without them...
Related
Presidenting is hard.
Remember that the rallies were what he loved, what he wanted to keep doing...
President Donald Trump has canceled a rally in Iowa next week, citing "an unforeseen change" in the president's schedule.
"Due to an unforeseen change in President Trump's schedule, we will need to unfortunately postpone the previously scheduled rally in Cedar Rapids on June 1st," according to an email sent from his campaign Saturday.
Remember that the rallies were what he loved, what he wanted to keep doing...
Well Then
I'm a bit mixed on whether we need to know every little health detail about the president, but...
The distance between Donald Trump and his G7 partners was spelled out dramatically today when Theresa May and the leaders of Italy, France, Germany, Japan and Canada strolled the streets of Taormina, Sicily — while he followed in a golf cart.
Martyrs
If the story is as told (no reason to doubt it) jesus fuck these guys are heroes and if I hear of how to help their loved ones let us do that.
Multiple witnesses told KATU the suspect was hurling racial insults at two women, at least one of whom was wearing a hijab. Police wouldn't confirm their ages, but referred to them as "girls" and "young women."
Sgt. Pete Simpson with Portland Police added the suspect appeared to be acting erratically, and wasn't necessarily focused on anti-Muslim insults during the attack.
Two men who came to the women's defense had their throats slashed by the suspect, Sgt. Simpson said.
Diplomacy
Focused on the important things.
“These are the best,” he said, before explaining that his ambivalent attitude towards the EU was a consequence of his experiences trying to set up businesses, notably golf resorts, on the continent.
“He made a lot of references to his personal journey. He explained, for example, the functioning of Europe on the basis of his difficulties in doing business in Ireland,” one source told the Francophone paper.
Morning, Morning
On May 8th, the president's plane landed in D.C. and the president delayed deplaning for forty-five minutes. According to his son-in-law, who exited the plane and then returned twice, the president was busy doing something and did not want to be interrupted. Another aide said he was having a meeting. Maybe he just needed a nap?
Friday, May 26, 2017
The stupidest person in the world.
I am out so I have to post with my phone but Jared lololololololololol
Not All There
I feel a bit like I'm taking one for the team here, but Trump is not all there and the people who know it have to say so. This is not a clinical diagnosis. This is an observation from someone who has seen Trump on his teevee his whole life and remembers when he was a rich dumbass who could string sentences together like any other rich dumbass Penn "special admissions" graduate instead of a guy who clearly isn't always quite sure where he is. People who work for him and journalists who have spent time with him know this. They have to say it. It's a problem. I don't want President Pence, either, but...
The 2016 Primary Will Never End
I suppose this is mostly limited to online political obsessives, though with social media their ranks have grown, but it is a bit maddening to see almost every discussion about the Democrats framed (implicitly or explicitly) in terms of Bernie versus Hillary. To the extent that this is roughly a policy discussion (Bernie representing more Left and Hillary representing more Center) that's not so bad, but it seems to go way beyond that, with literally everything that happens - every decision, every personality, every speech - being interpreted through that filter.
Also, It's Cheap
I'm sure the glorious efforts of the Eat More Pork Association (or whatever it's called) have something to do with it, but, you know, an article about the popularity of pork should mention the fact that... it's cheap. Easier to cook than chicken (other than chicken breasts), too.
Thursday, May 25, 2017
Say Goodnight, Jared
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law and one of his senior advisers, has come under FBI scrutiny in the Russia investigation, multiple U.S. officials told NBC News.
Investigators believe Kushner has significant information relevant to their inquiry, officials said. That does not mean they suspect him of a crime or intend to charge him.
To Dream The Impossible Dream
If I were writing this stupid political novel, this would be the next plot twist.
Westminster voting intention:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 25, 2017
CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)
(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)
Our Friend
Echidne of the Snakes is having her yearly fundraiser. She says she still feels embarrassed asking for funds. I say we should all go over there and reassure her that the work she does is very much appreciated and then back that up with a donation. Echidne is our go to person for interpreting data, expecially medical studies. We need her voice, now more than ever. Thank you all. As ever, not everyone is in a position to donate, but if you can, now is a good time to do so.
Blabbermouths
Watching the news about Manchester after the bombing, one would see a lot of journalists (in the newspaper live blogs and on twitter) saying things like "according to reports from US sources in US newspapers, this is happening, but we have had no confirmation from UK sources." Several times. I have no idea why people would feel the need to leak this stuff, but they were.
British police stopped sharing information about the Manchester suicide bombing with the United States on Thursday after leaks to U.S. media that police said had risked compromising their investigations.
Prime Minister Theresa May said she would tell U.S. President Donald Trump that intelligence shared between their two countries had to remain secure, in a rare public show of dissatisfaction with Britain's closest security ally.
And In Other News
Montana congressional candidate (you can guess which party) choke-slams and punches reporter, breaks glasses, in front of witnesses. Campaign lies about it despite audio recording and witnesses which contradict it. Candidate (Gianforte) is charged. Oh, and it's election day! He'll still probably win, and Ryan will still seat him.
Still Growing
It's just a tiny increase, but the Census estimates that Philly's population has increased by THREE THOUSAND THREE HUNDRED since last year.
That's obviously not a lot - and population growth isn't intrinsically good or bad - but it's 10 straight years of growth (if small) for a city which had decades of massive population declines. So that it's not shrinking anymore is a big deal.
That's obviously not a lot - and population growth isn't intrinsically good or bad - but it's 10 straight years of growth (if small) for a city which had decades of massive population declines. So that it's not shrinking anymore is a big deal.
Wednesday, May 24, 2017
CBOCBOCBOCBO
For $119B in deficit reduction over 10 years (not that I think this is a good measure, but it is one the Very Serious People Care About) 23 million people will be freed from the tyranny of health insurance, many more which will have insurance that doesn't cover anything, and people with pre-existing conditions will be shit out of luck.
Not Bothsidesing
Obviously "lie" is more accurate than "error," but kudos to NBC for not going with "critics call it an error..."
"We stand by the numbers," Trump budget director says of $2,000,000,000,000 error that uses same money twice. https://t.co/iSU10e0wy3 pic.twitter.com/jeIdJlFumX
— NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) May 24, 2017
Poor Spicey
Your regular reminder to everyone in the White House: lawyer up and quit.
Hinted at but not quite stated: people would have let Spicey go in their place, but Trump decided not to let him.
ROME – President Donald Trump’s entourage at the Vatican on Wednesday included his wife, his daughter, and an array of staffers—but not White House press secretary Sean Spicer, a devout Catholic who told reporters earlier this year that he gave up alcohol for Lent.
Both sides, according to a White House official, agreed to limit the number of staffers who attended. Two other senior communications aides from the White House were included: Hope Hicks, who like Melania and Ivanka Trump wore a black veil over her hair, and Dan Scavino, the White House director of social media and a longtime Trump loyalist.
...
Other members of the traveling Trump team who are not practicing Catholics said they gave up their spots to accommodate Catholic White House aides. But Spicer – a regular churchgoer who was mocked last year for appearing on CNN with ashes on his forehead in honor of Ash Wednesday – was notably absent.
Hinted at but not quite stated: people would have let Spicey go in their place, but Trump decided not to let him.
Droopy Dog Face
Sad!
President Trump is no longer considering former senator Joe Lieberman as his next FBI director, CNN reported Wednesday.
Trump, who had said as recently as last week that Lieberman was his top choice, will in fact "hit the restart button" on the search for a new FBI chief, the network reported.
Uber Death Watch
They don't have any kind of intellectual property or even network effect that can get them to a monopoply, they lose money on every ride, robot cars aren't going to save them because they won't work, and, oh, they break the law and in reality lose much more on every ride.
Back when Uber first appeared and it was the Coolest Thing Ever and everyone would brag about their cheap and luxurious cab rides I tried to tell people: whatever (real!) problems there are with local cab regulation, there are very good reasons why there are supply-restricting medallion systems for local cab companies. One of them is that without some sort of monopoly or mandated supply restriction, this type of of business is unlikely to be profitable (thinking of profit broadly, including for drivers). The regulations exist to ensure the market exists. All of Uber's clever (and sometimes illegal) ways to try to beat this fact aren't going to work.
But Uber’s handling of passenger payments raises questions about a larger legal issue, potentially far more substantial: not the pocket-change difference in the commission but whether that entire $2 in taxes is improperly coming out of the drivers’ wallets.
Back when Uber first appeared and it was the Coolest Thing Ever and everyone would brag about their cheap and luxurious cab rides I tried to tell people: whatever (real!) problems there are with local cab regulation, there are very good reasons why there are supply-restricting medallion systems for local cab companies. One of them is that without some sort of monopoly or mandated supply restriction, this type of of business is unlikely to be profitable (thinking of profit broadly, including for drivers). The regulations exist to ensure the market exists. All of Uber's clever (and sometimes illegal) ways to try to beat this fact aren't going to work.
And Speaking Of Blogger Ethics Panels
It's probably a bit more important that members of Congress vote their book.
Forty Republican representatives who voted for the American Health Care Act held shares in health care companies valued at $23 million and earned more than $2 million off those investments, a Daily Beast review of the most-recent financial records found.
Time For Another Blogger Ethics Panel
This is one of my pet peeves, based on the early round of "bloggers are scary" fearmongering. You see, some of us might have undisclosed financial backing!!! Even then I was smart enough to know this was hilarious, because all of those people writing opinion pieces for our major newspapers were hardly disclosing all of their financial ties to readers.
I mean, sure, disclosure is good, but it was an example of trying to apply "rules" to bloggers based on journalism "rules" which didn't even exist at our elite newspapers. And still don't.
I mean, sure, disclosure is good, but it was an example of trying to apply "rules" to bloggers based on journalism "rules" which didn't even exist at our elite newspapers. And still don't.
Tuesday, May 23, 2017
Cambrian Explosion
They're rich so I'm the stupid one, but I'm glad everyone is having fun lighting money on fire.
Please invest in my self-driving blog!!!
“There is such a crazy thing going on in the market right now around autonomous vehicles,” he says as he hops into his self-driving go-kart. “It is kind of like if you can spell ‘self-driving’ you can sell it for a billion dollars.”
Yet it is not just Silicon Valley money pouring in. The world’s top automakers such as Ford and General Motors have joined Google’s parent Alphabet, Uber and other tech companies in funding research for self-driving technology.
Please invest in my self-driving blog!!!
The Charter Grift
It isn't that there are no good charter schools or that it is impossible to conceive of some form of school choice system which might (might!) be good in general, but the well-funded charter school movement has been a giant grift, diverting education dollars away from teachers and students and helping to destroy a base of Democratic support. And Democrats played a big role in that.
Finally
It wasn't always like this, but for the last few years the pedestrian crush in Midtown hasn't been merely annoying, it's been unsafe, with sidewalks so crowded at times that people end up getting pushed out onto the streets at times. And if one does the MATH one realizes just how few cars, and therefore few people in them, are driving down those streets. Finally some sidewalks will be widened, and it's nuts that this didn't happen before.
Not Quite There Yet
There's still some magical thinking here...we will see!
"That [closing on the private financing] is a huge milestone in the history of this project, Hasenbalg said. "That provides the impetus to issue the public bonds."
What's the timeline? The public offering - the bond documents - could go out by the end of the week, with a final closing estimated for mid-June.
But if you are or know a construction worker, they shouldn't expect to wait that long.
Why
Aside from the very very obvious, there are two things which bother me about these obviously fraudulent (in that the people involved knew they were fraudulent) wrongful conviction cases:
1) If you convict the wrong person for murder, then the real perp fremains free. You have not found the killer.
2) I would understand 1) (not in a forgivable sense, but in an "at least there's a reason" sense), if cops faced the mythical pressure that you see in cop shows and movies to close cases. 10 unsolved murders! OH NO!!! Pressure's on, detective! The mayor is yelling at the police commissioner!!! But in Philly at least, except for the occasional high profile case involving a child or a white victim (usually a white child), I never see any evidence of that kind of pressure.
The "very very obvious" is that an innocent man has had his life destroyed in an unjust system, but I still don't get why.
Thomas seemed to have a cut-and-dried alibi for where he was on the November 1990 morning when Puerto Rican businessman Domingo Martinez was gunned down while transporting $25,000 to a check-cashing store he owned. He said he was checking into the former Youth Study Center for juvenile offenders on the Benjamin Franklin Parkway after he’d been locked up the night before in a completely unrelated matter. He even had a signed subpoena from that morning to prove it. Yet Thomas’ trial attorney somehow failed to convince a jury, forcing an imprisoned inmate to spend years writing letters pleading for someone to believe he didn’t do it.
1) If you convict the wrong person for murder, then the real perp fremains free. You have not found the killer.
2) I would understand 1) (not in a forgivable sense, but in an "at least there's a reason" sense), if cops faced the mythical pressure that you see in cop shows and movies to close cases. 10 unsolved murders! OH NO!!! Pressure's on, detective! The mayor is yelling at the police commissioner!!! But in Philly at least, except for the occasional high profile case involving a child or a white victim (usually a white child), I never see any evidence of that kind of pressure.
The "very very obvious" is that an innocent man has had his life destroyed in an unjust system, but I still don't get why.
"Phony Leaks"
I've had interactions with journalists in which they have claimed that sources won't lie to them because they'd burn the source if they did. In all of my years of media watching I have seen precisely one journalist burn a source for lying. If the Trump administration (or anyone) is trying to give "fake leaks" to journalists there is a pretty easy way to deal with them: burn the source.
Let's get serious for a moment: Mitchell's scheme is rather facile, but that does not mean phony leaks are not a real threat. According to Haberman, members of the Trump administration already have tried to dupe the New York Times on several occasions — presumably with tips that seem plausible and are not easily dismissed as “crazy.”
The Cycle
Someone does something horrible. A lot of bigotry is unleashed against innocent people. The usual suspects clamor to add more security theater and privacy intrusions. Repeat.
Morning Thread
Can't.Keep.Up.
Going to have to develop a spreadsheet to keep track of who is obstructing today and who obstructed yesterday and who is going to obstruct tomorrow.
Going to have to develop a spreadsheet to keep track of who is obstructing today and who obstructed yesterday and who is going to obstruct tomorrow.
Monday, May 22, 2017
Too Much Too Fast
I think I end up posting about 1/3 of the nightly scoops because they all come at once.
President Trump asked two of the nation’s top intelligence officials in March to help him push back against an FBI investigation into possible coordination between his campaign and the Russian government, according to current and former officials.
...
Coats and Rogers refused to comply with the requests, which they both deemed to be inappropriate, according to two current and two former officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private communications with the president.
...
“The problem wasn’t so much asking them to issue statements, it was asking them to issue false statements about an ongoing investigation,” a former senior intelligence official said of the request to Coats.
To State The Obvious
I tried avoid "what if.." constructions because they are too tempting, but those of us who lived through the 90s know that if Bill Clinton had ever been thought to have done anything like Trump himself has admitted with the Comey firing, the New York Times and Washington Post would have had daily thundering editorials demanding impeachment. CNN, MSNBC, and (of course) a newborn Fox network would have had a some sort of "impeachment countdown clock" and nightly "AMERICA IN CRISIS" shows.
Some Good News
One question about the Trump administration (and the Bush administration before it) is how good/bad they will be on peripheral issues, things which perhaps aren't central to whatever nightmarish agenda is being cooked up in Bannon's dungeons. You know, does anyone there have any sense that they're running a government and not burning it down?
Obviously this is one of my pet issues, but even aside from that it's been in planning forever so canceling it out of spite would have been a big deal beyond that.
Good news for Silicon Valley commuters: Federal agency now says it will go ahead with Caltrain electrification agreement. pic.twitter.com/xSQ6DikyQO
— Thomas Fuller (@thomasfullerNYT) May 22, 2017
Obviously this is one of my pet issues, but even aside from that it's been in planning forever so canceling it out of spite would have been a big deal beyond that.
Great Moments In Presidenting
This guy is making Jim Hoft look like a fucking genius.
Pres. Trump says he never mentioned Israel supposedly in reference to Russia meeting after Netanyahu calls intel cooperation "terrific." pic.twitter.com/ssUpw5OT6C
— ABC News (@ABC) May 22, 2017
Scotland
While I'm on the UK elections, I do find it bizarre who rarely people mention Scotland, except in passing, when talking about Labour's electoral fortunes. Labour got destroyed there in 2015, likely "forever,"
and Corbyn didn't do that. It isn't the only problem Labour has, but it's a giant piece of it. Of course everyone also-kinda-sorta assumes that an SNP-Labour coalition would form if the numbers were there, but no one actually wants to talk about it, so...
and Corbyn didn't do that. It isn't the only problem Labour has, but it's a giant piece of it. Of course everyone also-kinda-sorta assumes that an SNP-Labour coalition would form if the numbers were there, but no one actually wants to talk about it, so...
The "Developing World," Too
This is the best line to explain policy advice given from on high both to cities and to "developing countries."
I remember quite clearly (though not clearly enough for an exact quote) that one rather prominent economic adviser to Russia was asked, when Russia had their economic meltdown, how it all went wrong, and his answer really was something like "we told them to do 5 things and they only did 4 of them!"
So they can’t give an exact recipe for how to grow, because that wouldn’t work. Instead, they propose ten nebulous items. A city that succeeds will get praised for how it implemented six of them; a city that fails will get criticized for how it only implemented six and did so in the wrong way.
I remember quite clearly (though not clearly enough for an exact quote) that one rather prominent economic adviser to Russia was asked, when Russia had their economic meltdown, how it all went wrong, and his answer really was something like "we told them to do 5 things and they only did 4 of them!"
The Dementia Tax
That the Tories would propose and even implement that kind of bizarrely cruel policy that is pretty much standard in the US (details and mechanisms different, but effectively) does not surprise me, that they would put it in their pre-election Manifesto (platform) was... WTF?
She's lying, but it's bizarre. No reason to think Labour can win, but polls suggest May managed to destroy a likely Tory landslide. And the climbdown still is a cruel policy. It just won't hurt rich people quite as much! Like an estate tax, but only for poorer people!
...some more context.
Theresa May has said that a Conservative government would set an “absolute limit” on the amount that people pay for social care, in a U-turn on plans included in her party’s election manifesto last week.
The prime minister claimed that the inclusion of a cap, which comes after even supportive newspapers dubbed the plans a “dementia tax” triggering days of backlash, was simply a clarification.
She's lying, but it's bizarre. No reason to think Labour can win, but polls suggest May managed to destroy a likely Tory landslide. And the climbdown still is a cruel policy. It just won't hurt rich people quite as much! Like an estate tax, but only for poorer people!
...some more context.
Sunday, May 21, 2017
Sunday Evening
Do we think low T cuck Trump makes it through the whole scheduled trip or cuts and runs early?
Good Luck With That
I guess he can beg, but...
NEW YORK (AP) — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is calling on President Donald Trump for federal help at Penn Station, saying the "impact of the state of disrepair" is at "a tipping point."
Cuomo put out a letter to Trump on Sunday. He wants the federal government to help figure out and fund transportation alternatives while repair work is undertaken after a spate of problems including two derailments. He also reiterated a call he has made before, that a private operator should take over operations at Penn Station from Amtrak.
Wacky Foreigners Always Taking Offense
One of my pet peeves is when suddenly everyone becomes on expert on some foreign country's customs (usually Arab or Asian countries) and conclude there is some sort of body language which is Unbelievable Offensive and Thing The Which Must Not Be Done. The latest version of his was that giving a thumb's up sign, which Trump does, was Very Offensive in Saudi Arabia. I have no idea if this even true, but even if it is the kind of thing locals don't do it isn't as if they're going to be mortally wounded if Trump sticks his thumb up. If someone came in my house and promptly flipped me the bird, an offensive bit of body language in our culture, I'd find it weird but I wouldn't actually be offended. How dare you, sir! I have been insulted! I mean, whatever.
Yes of course there are different manners and customs but people generally recognize them for what they are, and if somebody foreign doesn't know the proper silverware etiquette or whatever no one is really going to get too upset.
Yes of course there are different manners and customs but people generally recognize them for what they are, and if somebody foreign doesn't know the proper silverware etiquette or whatever no one is really going to get too upset.
Saturday, May 20, 2017
Not Dead Yet
It's a miracle!
Triple Five, the operator of the American Dream Meadowlands project, announced late Friday that it has closed on $1.6 billion in construction financing for the long-stalled project.
The deal is expected to set the stage in the coming days or weeks for a billion-dollar bond issuance that would provide the rest of the funding for the 2.9 million square foot first phase of the project.
The White House
I know "White House" is often used as a metonym for "The President" but these sources are mostly COMING FROM INSIDE THE HOUSE.
What unnerves Mr. Trump and his staff the most is the eerily familiar tempo of these disclosures. It is as if some unseen adversary has copied Mr. Trump’s own velocity and ferocity in an attempt to destroy him, several people close to the president said. Sources are shuttling all kinds of information about Mr. Trump to reporters at a pace the White House cannot match.
Tuned Out For A Bit
I just had a flip phone for a long time because I knew that if I had one of those fancy smartphone thingies I'd never be able to disconnect. Sure I often carried a netbook with me but I at least had to open that up and turn it on, instead of just pulling the thing out of my pocket and glancing at it. It isn't healthy.
Lunch Thread
Anybody feeling sorry for the staffers who will be left behind when this administration implodes. I'm finding it hard to work up any sympathy.
Morning Thread
Should be a quiet weekend, news wise. There are only so many breaking stories possible. By my figuring, we've use up our quota well into the next administration.
Friday, May 19, 2017
Poor Normies
One thing that has changed a lot since I began this sucky blog is that now "everybody" follows the minutiae of daily politics. It's a bit because of Trump, but also a lot just because of social media. Facebook is like this politics gusher now. Once upon a time I was this weird dude who knew what was going on all the time, and now everybody I know does too.
The Leaks
One absolutely amazing thing (good or bad) about the Obama administration was that there were basically no leaks-against-the-boss. Sure there were self-serving leaks for the administration generally and people who tried to make themselves the hero of the story, but nobody near to Obama ever (I really can't think of a single example) leaked to make Obama look bad. There are like 15 per day with Trump.
WASHINGTON — President Trump told Russian officials in the Oval Office this month that firing the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, had relieved “great pressure” on him, according to a document summarizing the meeting.
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump said, according to the document, which was read to The New York Times by an American official. “I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”
Walk
This is a good rant. And, yes, the very sad thing about the US is that it's very difficult to walk anywhere for useful reasons in most of the country. Even in places where you can, in theory, walk, it usually isn't actually pleasant to walk because the environment just isn't built for pedestrians. When I lived in Irvine, CA, I could (and did!) walk to the supermarket, and to its credit it was, in some sense, built to allow for such walking, but it wasn't actually a pleasant walk. It was a bit too far with not much interesting inbetween and incredibly long wait stoplights and of course the glorious parking lot you had to walk through at the end. After that I moved to Laguna Beach, which is walkable (and more walkable than Irvine) but basically everybody drives everywhere because that's what it is constructed to accommodate.
I don't need to live in a "big city." I have spent time in little tiny places that I have loved. I do need to live somewhere that most of my daily needs - food shopping, a cafe, a bar or restaurant, for example - can be met without a car. A mile walk isn't very far - 20ish minutes! - if it's a nice walk.
(ht AL)
I don't need to live in a "big city." I have spent time in little tiny places that I have loved. I do need to live somewhere that most of my daily needs - food shopping, a cafe, a bar or restaurant, for example - can be met without a car. A mile walk isn't very far - 20ish minutes! - if it's a nice walk.
(ht AL)
Kind of an Important Job
By various accounts from the news and individual New Yorkers, the subway system is imploding. Neither Cuomo nor De Blasio want to take responsibility for it (Cuomo really has the power, but De Blasio seems weirdly uninterested).
Can't have New York or London or Paris or Tokyo without their subway systems. The cities would break.
Can't have New York or London or Paris or Tokyo without their subway systems. The cities would break.
The World's Easiest Mark
We're going to wake up one day and discover he's given Florida to Italy or something.
Ms. Merkel has also learned the value of simply staying in touch. While her meeting at the White House with Mr. Trump included an awkward photo opportunity that suggested coolness, she has kept in regular contact. When she planned to travel to Saudi Arabia last month, she called Mr. Trump first, ostensibly to ask his advice — counsel that after 12 years in office she hardly needed from a diplomatic novice.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
Transportation
This is funny for lots of reasons but the carbon footprint of transportation is often overlooked.
“The experts who put this together—because Doug told them that we had to have that for marketing purposes—made it very clear to me and others that, through their research, they’d determined 100 percent that it would leave a much larger carbon footprint to ship these [...] empty juice packs back East,” a former operations employee told Gizmodo. Another claimed this conclusion had been reached previously by the company’s internal food science team as well as two packaging engineering consultants. The partnership with Terracycle was pursued regardless in the interest of marketing the juice subscription service as more environmentally conscious than it was, these sources allege.
We Always Need These Jobs
As dirtbag Matt Bruenig says, it's a bit weird to focus on jobs that we always need when talking about a Jobs Guarantee which is designed in part to provide jobs during recessions. I'll also add that that the list of these types of jobs hits the sweet spot of "jobs we all agree are important" and "jobs we think require no skills whatsoever to do." I don't agree with the second one, but it says a lot about how we "value" child and eldercare positions. Anybody can do them!
FBI Joe
Leaving aside all of my rather strong opinions about Joe Lieberman, only in DC could he be seriously considered for the job of running the FBI. His relevant experience? None.
Snowflake
Imagine having to plan his trips.
President Donald Trump has canceled a planned visit and speech at the ancient mountain fortress of Masada in Israel after authorities told him that he could not land his helicopter on top of the UNESCO-listed site.
...
Unlike former presidents who have made the trip, such as George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, Trump declined to land the helicopter at a base of the historic site and then take the cable car up, preferring to cancel the visit altogether.
And I Thought Another Death Would Be The News Of The Day
Roger Ailes is gone.
Normally I'd say "be nice" but Ailes was human garbage and he lived a long life, so...
Normally I'd say "be nice" but Ailes was human garbage and he lived a long life, so...
Snowflakes
Everybody's gotta eat, but I'm pretty sure most of these people don't need these jobs.
For many White House staffers, impromptu support groups of friends, confidants and acquaintances have materialized, calling and texting to check in, inquiring about their mental state and urging them to take care of themselves.
One Republican operative in frequent contact with White House officials described them as “going through the stages of grief.” Another said some aides have “moved to angry,” frustrated with a president who demands absolute loyalty but in recent days has publicly tarnished the credibility of his team by sending them out with one message, only to personally undercut it later with a contradicting tweet or public comment.
Oopsie
It's ancient history now, like the Vietnam war was when I was a kid, but a million+ people died because the Very Serious People in our country got a big boner for war.
Morning Thread
Can't unplug for five minutes anymore without some bombshell of a news story breaking.
Wednesday, May 17, 2017
Monarchies Are Funny
There were quite a few Dutch students in my graduate program, and as Brown is the type of place important people send their kids, there was an undergraduate student who was, I dunno, like 6th in line to the Dutch throne. So we'd all have beers occasionally and all the non-aristocratic Dutch students would play it cool until "the Prince" left and then they'd say "holy fuck we just had drinks with the Prince." It was pretty funny and "the Prince" was a pretty nice guy. Charismatic and had pretty good luck with the ladies, too. Good for him! Monarchies are weird anachronisms but they obviously aren't all the same.
For 21 years, King Willem-Alexander has taken to the skies twice a month to ferry passengers around on short-haul services for the Dutch airline KLM.
Although travellers may have recognised the monarch's voice as he updated them on weather conditions and their time of arrival, the royal's presence was never revealed.
This Is A Good Tweet
You know your generation's had it rough when its image of decadence is a vegetable on a slice of bread.
— Satans Little Helper (@SFtheWolf) May 16, 2017
I wore on avocado on my belt, as was the style at the time...
Lawyer Up
I have no idea if Robert Mueller, SPECIAL COUNSEL, will do what needs to be done, but he will at least have to pretend to, and the way to pretend to is to go after the little people. Anyone working for Trump needs to hire a lawyer and get the fuck out of there as soon as possible.
SNL
The place SNL has in our political culture annoys me right now, though that isn't a comment on the quality of the show (it's sometimes great and mostly bad as it has always been), and more on how it is received, but I did like the "Lester Holt" interview where "Trump" says he fired Comey over Russia and "Holt" is like, "oh, hey, I got him, I just brought down the president" before being informed that, no, nothing matters anymore.
Because that should be enough to bring down a president. It is in all the Nixon myths we tell ourselves.
Because that should be enough to bring down a president. It is in all the Nixon myths we tell ourselves.
FOP
Police (#notallpolice) attitude towards liberals is always a bit surprising. I mean, we support their right to unionize and don't complain too much about their pay and overtime and benefits and pensions. Sure we might have some different attitudes about appropriate use of force and whether suspects should go to jail for months because they can't afford bail, but I'd think the "earning a nice paycheck" would be a bit more important than those things. We're on your side on the stuff that I would expect to matter. When the Supreme Court outlaws public unions, well, we tried to warn you. Probably a bit more important than whether your crooked buddy gets fired (they never get fired) for beating up and stealing from a suspect.
While it is a one party town and good money is on the reformer DA to win easily by virtue of the fact that he has a D after his name, the police and other parts of the legal establishment will do their best to stop him. It will be interesting.
While it is a one party town and good money is on the reformer DA to win easily by virtue of the fact that he has a D after his name, the police and other parts of the legal establishment will do their best to stop him. It will be interesting.
So Gullible
Not going to fault the reporter, but there is a tendency to take things that people say at face value...
Narrator voice: It won't.
It is a project of Triple Five Worldwide, which also developed the West Edmonton Mall in Canada and Mall of America in Bloomington, MN. In about 18 months, Triple Five Worldwide will open American Dream Metropolitan New York in the New Jersey Meadowlands, Mr. Gorlow said.
Narrator voice: It won't.
It Isn't Just Narcissism
It's a problem.
National Security Council officials have strategically included Trump's name in "as many paragraphs as we can because he keeps reading if he's mentioned," according to one source, who relayed conversations he had with NSC officials.
Literal Riots
Ye olde perfesser has spent decades doing his "I say this with sorrow, but the inevitable result of [liberals something] will be violence, and it will be their fault" schtick.
If Enough People Say Something Stupid
You do have to admire Republicans/conservatives. They are all - from Ryan and McConnell down to the lowliest Twitter egg - running with some version of "oh, haha Trump was just kidding with Comey and THE REAL STORY is Comey should have resigned and/or told Congress about it." This is so fucking stupid for reasons I don't even need to explain, but I am impressed that this was apparently beamed out directly into all of their brains at about 3AM. They're good.
I Guess Jared Has Something To Hide
Either that or he's the stupidest man alive. Or both!
Sources tell us Kushner was a prominent voice advocating Comey's firing & the President's angry that move has created a firestorm @MajorCBS pic.twitter.com/N3IhlTnwM5
— Norah O'Donnell🇺🇸 (@NorahODonnell) May 17, 2017
Reform
Next year we will have a very different DA.
The current DA actually ran as a reformer, but never was one (at all), and also he'll likely be in prison soon. But the idea that this kind of reformer could win wasn't crazy. Even though the current one didn't keep his promises, it was what he promised, if not quite as aggressively as Krasner.
Krasner, a defense attorney for three decades best known for taking on civil rights cases for Black Lives Matter and Occupy Philadelphia members, AIDS activists and protesters arrested at political conventions, has never served a day in his career as a prosecutor.
The current DA actually ran as a reformer, but never was one (at all), and also he'll likely be in prison soon. But the idea that this kind of reformer could win wasn't crazy. Even though the current one didn't keep his promises, it was what he promised, if not quite as aggressively as Krasner.
Tuesday, May 16, 2017
With Friends Like These
Well then!
A senior official in the Trump administration, who previously worked on the president’s campaign, offered a candid and brief assessment of the fallout from that string of bad press: “I don’t see how Trump isn’t completely fucked.”
Obstruction
I remember during Monica Madness when people would suggest "saying truthful things to reporters" was somehow obstruction of justice (because Starr's office had a monopoly on Truth no matter how often they lied).
WASHINGTON — President Trump asked the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, to shut down the federal investigation into Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, in an Oval Office meeting in February, according to a memo that Mr. Comey wrote shortly after the meeting.
“I hope you can let this go,” the president told Mr. Comey, according to the memo.
The President Of The United States
Only like 25 more years of this.
This has, at times, chafed the president, according to two officials with knowledge of the situation. Mr. Trump, who still openly laments having to dismiss his first national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, has groused that General McMaster talks too much in meetings, and the president has referred to him as “a pain,” according to one of the officials.
In private, three administration officials conceded that they could not publicly articulate their most compelling — and honest — defense of the president: that Mr. Trump, a hasty and indifferent reader of printed briefing materials, simply did not possess the interest or knowledge of the granular details of intelligence gathering to leak specific sources and methods of intelligence gathering that would do harm to United States allies.
Our Dumb Country
The headlines are something like "Trump to give speech on Islam in Saudi Arabia." Obviously Trump doesn't know anything about anything, so any speech subject would be pretty funny, but he of course knows absolutely nothing about Islam and yet "we" think it's perfectly fine and normal to visit another country and talk to them about their state religion. I'm sure they will value his insights and also all the weapons he sells them.
These Sentences
Everybody knows what's up with Trump. Just be more explicit.
It's an international extension of a dynamic that has been in place since Trump took office, with aides staying in close physical proximity to a president who can often be influenced by the most recent person he’s spoken with.
McCain is Very Concerned
It's cute that the very savvy political reporters never get tired of that game.
And They Figured That Out All By Themselves
There is no media or Dem drumbeat for impeachment. And yet...
Only 40% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 54% who disapprove. For the first time we find more voters (48%) in support of impeaching Trump than there are (41%) opposed to the idea.
I Voted
District attorney and judges (yes we elect them) basically. It's the primary, but it's a one party town, so..
Morning Thread
Burning question this morning: Will he be smart enough not to tweet about the latest revelation?
Anybody's guess.
Anybody's guess.
Monday, May 15, 2017
Senior Trump Appointee
Clock is ticking.
Some administration officials who supported Trump during the campaign said they were appalled at his apparent divulging of U.S. secrets, and considered it a break from his “America First” campaign mantra.
“With news like this I’m beginning to wonder why Trump ran in the first place and if he really cares about the country,” said a senior Trump appointee involved in counter-ISIS policymaking. “I miss candidate Trump. Now he’s just a pathetic mess.”
Because I Am Not Serious
Trump is a senile old man with some sort of degenerative brain condition and he will brag to anybody about anything. This isn't about Russia, really, it's about a president of the United States who brags to people that important people visit him in the Oval Office. A president of the United States who brags that he won the election. A president of the United States who tells reporters about how impressed people are with him. A man - not just a man, but the president of the United States of fucking America - who can't have a conversation without telling someone how impressed other people are with him. He'll tell anybody anything to impress them with how impressive he is.
Trump has been on my teevee and radio my entire adult life. I was a Howard Stern listener for a long time. Trump was a regular. He was always a horrible narcissistic braggart, but not like this. He has a problem, we have a problem, and despite the fact that his handlers keep telling the press that they have to treat him like a 5 year old, no one will come right out and say the obvious: Trump is in serious mental decline and also he runs the world.
Trump has been on my teevee and radio my entire adult life. I was a Howard Stern listener for a long time. Trump was a regular. He was always a horrible narcissistic braggart, but not like this. He has a problem, we have a problem, and despite the fact that his handlers keep telling the press that they have to treat him like a 5 year old, no one will come right out and say the obvious: Trump is in serious mental decline and also he runs the world.
FAKE NEWS WRONG FAKE WRONG
Well then.
President Trump revealed highly classified information to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador in a White House meeting last week, according to current and former U.S. officials, who said Trump’s disclosures jeopardized a critical source of intelligence on the Islamic State.
The information the president relayed had been provided by a U.S. partner through an intelligence-sharing arrangement considered so sensitive that details have been withheld from allies and tightly restricted even within the U.S. government, officials said.
The Miracle Of Compound Interest
It is a miracle! Did you know if you save one penny today and invest it at 4% that in 1000 years you will have 2 thousand trillion dollars! It is true!
Also, you'll be dead and probably someone will have stolen it from your retirement account by then, but it is still a miracle!
Once when I was on some conference panel on retirement, pushing the crazy idea that we need more Social Security, I was trying to push the point that relying on 401k plans for retirement essentially requires a best case scenario:
1) people have stable employment from young adulthood until retirement
2) they start saving immediately and constantly in a nontrivial fashion for retirement
of course those young people also:
1) have low wage entry level jobs
2) have to pay back student loans
3) have to pay rent and eat
4) are "supposed" to get married and have bebbies (and, you know, we aren't peacocks, but the mating market requires a bit of expensive peacocking)
5) have to save for college for their bebbies
6) have to save for a downpayment for a house
The miracle of compound interest is the miracle that we don't live quite long enough to appreciate.
Also, you'll be dead and probably someone will have stolen it from your retirement account by then, but it is still a miracle!
Once when I was on some conference panel on retirement, pushing the crazy idea that we need more Social Security, I was trying to push the point that relying on 401k plans for retirement essentially requires a best case scenario:
1) people have stable employment from young adulthood until retirement
2) they start saving immediately and constantly in a nontrivial fashion for retirement
of course those young people also:
1) have low wage entry level jobs
2) have to pay back student loans
3) have to pay rent and eat
4) are "supposed" to get married and have bebbies (and, you know, we aren't peacocks, but the mating market requires a bit of expensive peacocking)
5) have to save for college for their bebbies
6) have to save for a downpayment for a house
The miracle of compound interest is the miracle that we don't live quite long enough to appreciate.
Flashbacks
The Bush era was hilarious, except for all the dead people of course.
Last person to have pedant cred, but, comeon Zombie Broder, it's "more importantly."
Bush Regains His Footing
By David S. Broder
Friday, February 16, 2007
It may seem perverse to suggest that, at the very moment the House of Representatives is repudiating his policy in Iraq, President Bush is poised for a political comeback. But don't be astonished if that is the case.
Like President Bill Clinton after the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, Bush has gone through a period of wrenching adjustment to his reduced status. But just as Clinton did in the winter of 1995, Bush now shows signs of renewed energy and is regaining the initiative on several fronts.
More important, he is demonstrating political smarts that even his critics have to acknowledge.
Last person to have pedant cred, but, comeon Zombie Broder, it's "more importantly."
Philly Style
Except for the most obvious ones (team D is better than team R) I tend to shy away from political endorsements, but my friend Henry Sias is running for judge in the Court of Common Pleas in Philadelphia and the primary (which in Philly is almost essentially the election) is tomorrow. So if you are in Philly please vote, and please consider voting for Henry McGregor Sias (#18).
Me: A Sucker
I'm a partisan hack. I don't think team D is perfect (read my blog!) but they are better than team R and we have a two party system in this country and nobody has figured out how to crack that code yet (and probably won't). Still I would horrified at any voter suppression efforts, even ones targeted at Trump Country. Yes voter suppression efforts aimed at African-Americans are extra bad for obvious historical and current reasons, but I'd still be vehemently opposed to any voter suppression efforts, even retaliatory ones.
One win.
One win.
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday announced that it would stay out of a fight over a restrictive North Carolina voting law. The move left in place a federal appeals court ruling that struck down key parts of the law as an unconstitutional effort to “target African Americans with almost surgical precision.”
Paying For Lies And Stupidity
If I want stupid arguments, I can read the Red State comments section for free.
Poors v. Middle Class
I see this dialogue mostly playing out in the UK elections now, but it's the standard subtext in US politics, too (in normal times, anyway). Basically, if policies only help the poors they are blasted for helping the "undeserving" (black people) poors. If policies help the "middle class," they are "too expensive" because they reach too many people. If policies help the rich, why, JAAYUUUUB CREEEAATURRRZZZZ, even though in a good economy (by the conventional measures) the only threat to job creation is the Fed raising interest rates, which it promises to do.
America's Worst Humans
Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen
Back in the early days of blogging what drove people nuts was that we didn't have "editors" and (in some cases) were "anonymous." 90% of the reason for that was they couldn't complain to someone in hopes that we would get fired. They didn't want us to have editors so that we had fewer typos.
Back in the early days of blogging what drove people nuts was that we didn't have "editors" and (in some cases) were "anonymous." 90% of the reason for that was they couldn't complain to someone in hopes that we would get fired. They didn't want us to have editors so that we had fewer typos.
The Best People
We need a new term for "ruled by people who believe stupid shit they read on the internet."
Nobody tell him about Bonsai Kitten.
White House chief of staff Reince Priebus issued a stern warning at a recent senior staff meeting: Quit trying to secretly slip stuff to President Trump.
Just days earlier, K.T. McFarland, the deputy national security adviser, had given Trump a printout of two Time magazine covers. One, supposedly from the 1970s, warned of a coming ice age; the other, from 2008, about surviving global warming, according to four White House officials familiar with the matter.
Trump quickly got lathered up about the media’s hypocrisy. But there was a problem. The 1970s cover was fake, part of an Internet hoax that’s circulated for years. Staff chased down the truth and intervened before Trump tweeted or talked publicly about it.
Nobody tell him about Bonsai Kitten.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
Degenerative
Can't imagine why.
Across Washington, Trump’s allies have been buzzing about the staff’s competence as well as the president’s state of mind. One GOP figure close to the White House mused privately about whether Trump was “in the grip of some kind of paranoid delusion.”
Creationism and Prisons
This is extra stupid, of course, but it's really part of the general phenomenon of thinking big (often stupid) drive-in/drive-out tourist attractions will magically create awesomeness.
Think about how to create a nice place to live.
For a while, the county thought Noah’s Ark would save them. Desperate for a new revenue source, local officials gave hefty land grants and tax incentives to the Ark Encounter, a religious theme park that includes a “life-sized reconstruction” of Noah’s ship, along with a creation museum. The park opened last July, but due to the tax breaks, it hasn’t translated into any sort of public revenue windfall for the county.
Think about how to create a nice place to live.
Has Trump Been Indicted By The Court of Owls Yet?
Don't believe everything you read on the internet.
Morning Thread
Hiring a new press secretary from Fox News isn't going to magically turn coverage positive. That ship done sailed almost from the very first day.
Saturday, May 13, 2017
Credit Where Credit Is Due File
Gotta put something in there occasionally.
SHREWSBURY BOROUGH - Gov. Christie visited the borough on Thursday morning to celebrate the opening of a new Seabrook House outpatient drug and alcohol-treatment facility.
Not everyone was as delighted as the governor was to see the facility opening on White Street, however.
Dozens of protestors chanted and shouted out during the ribbon-cutting ceremony, calling for the facility to be relocated elsewhere and/or for the concerns of parents to be addressed, due to its close proximity to Shrewsbury Borough School.
...
"The kids in that school, by all the statistics in New Jersey, will need drug and alcohol treatment and you will be the same people who will complain that there's not enough," Christie told the protestors. "This ignorant, NIMBY attitude will not be stood for in New Jersey. ... You can yell as much as you want, but we are going to help people who need to be helped despite your ignorance and your intolerance."
Tipping
The NYT picked the wrong moment to run an ad campaign to appeal to anti-Trump fervor and then turn around and shit on all of its new subscribers. BRANDS are tricky, and the wrong move at the wrong moment can tarnish them forever. I'm sure most of the people who work at the New York Times don't like to think of themselves as a BRAND, but just an invaluable service, but they are a BRAND and that brand has always been about making highly educated people think that what other highly educated people did was read the New York Times. And of course those people skew liberal. Suddenly, they're just another outlet that publishes bullshit.
Sure, they always published bullshit. But people accepted that as just the way that newspapers had to be. Some law of the universe that said a few spots on the opinion page had to be reserved for right wing assholes. Then they hired another one.
Sure, they always published bullshit. But people accepted that as just the way that newspapers had to be. Some law of the universe that said a few spots on the opinion page had to be reserved for right wing assholes. Then they hired another one.
Who Published It?
Jake Tapper is being good on Twitter.
But nobody forced the Washington Post to publish the op-ed in question. Yet they did.
Does former AG Barr not know that POTUS Trump himself told NBC News he was thinking of Russia probe when he made the decision? 3/
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) May 13, 2017
But nobody forced the Washington Post to publish the op-ed in question. Yet they did.
And There You Go
Nixon and the tapes is practically the origin story of modern American politisc. And yet...
That isn't the oval office, but, well...
Visitors to Trump’s office have often recounted moments that indicated that someone outside the office was listening to their conversations.
Last spring, when two Post reporters visited Trump in his office for another interview, Trump, in the middle of telling a story about how he demolished the Manhattan landmark that had stood where Trump Tower is now, asked his guests if they would like something to drink.
In the same quiet voice in which he’d been conducting the interview, Trump said, “Okay, two waters and a Coke.” The interview resumed and less than a minute later, a secretary walked in with the drinks. No one other than the reporters and Trump had been in the office. And Trump never signaled the drink request to anyone outside the office.
That isn't the oval office, but, well...
Generation Lead
We are a cruel country.
He. Is. A. Physician.
A long-running battle to establish a database to monitor for prescription drug abuse in Missouri — the only state without one — is about to hit a boiling point.
On one side is Republican state Senator Rob Schaaf, who once said that when people die of overdoses that “just removes them from the gene pool.”
Schaaf, who is a physician, has squashed legislation in the past six sessions to establish a prescription drug monitoring program, or PDMP. But sensing urgency that the legislation might pass this session, Schaaf introduced his own bill to set up a PDMP that’s unlike those in any other state — a proposal that medical experts have called a “sham.”
He. Is. A. Physician.
Friday, May 12, 2017
What I Expected All Along
It isn't really about election meddling, though that might be the hook, it's about the money...
Another F.B.I. insider points out that while the media has focused on the investigation of possible collusion between Russia and Trump’s campaign, there are actually multiple inquiries in progress. “There’s also a cyber investigation, about the hacking and whether crimes were committed,” he says. “And then there’s the business side: Was there money laundering going on? Money from these Russian plutocrats that’s been washed through Trump’s real estate and businesses? That’s gotten overlooked, but Preet Bharara and the Southern District were supposedly looking into that.” They were until April anyway, when Trump and Sessions canned Bharara along with 45 other U.S. attorneys.
A Man Who Moves Across A Space Then Disappears.
As my AARP membership time approaches, I have begun to appreciate the perspective of being nearer to the midway mark of adult life (give or take of course). I think we spend a big chunk of our lives figuring out how the world works (manners, social and societal expectations, how to dress, which fork to use) and then the rest of it watching those lessons being slowly unlearned as the world changes around us. You know, figuring out how to use your new gadget was once exciting, now it's a giant pain in the ass. Effortlessly perceiving new trends in fashion and music was second nature (whether or not you cared or followed them) and now is increasingly confusing. DID I PUSH THE RIGHT BUTTON WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON. WHY DOES NO ONE WEAR AN ONION ON THEIR BELT ANYMORE?? You know, that kind of thing. Life is weird. So, I sorta of get why old people vote Republican, even though the dearest dream of Republicans is to cancel their Medicare and steal their Social Security. They promise to bring them back to that happy time, that brief moment when they were on top of the world.
Still, stop being assholes, old people. You have kids and grandkids.
Still, stop being assholes, old people. You have kids and grandkids.
Fight Club
Normally I think it's a bit scary to root for our rather unaccountable law enforcement/intelligence agencies to get one over on the president, but I think Trump crossed that line (not even with the firing, though he should be impeached for that, but with the threats), so if Mr. Comey wants to fight back, I say go for it.
A source close to Comey told me this morning: “He hopes there are tapes. That would be perfect.”
— Ken Dilanian (@KenDilanianNBC) May 12, 2017
Mysteries
Why are some job girly jobs and stigmatized as such? It's in this segment, twice, but you have to hunt for it.
and
They are girly jobs because they are low pay, and they are low pay because they are girly jobs. It's a twofer!
"the pay associated with those jobs are different."
and
"Female-dominated jobs are stigmatized because they’re lower-paid."
They are girly jobs because they are low pay, and they are low pay because they are girly jobs. It's a twofer!
Norms
Rather obvious point but our executive has too much power and it really is a mixture of culture, unwritten norms, rules that can be changed somewhat at whim, a somewhat stable and professional civil service, press and public pressure, and of course some hope that Congress and the Judiciary aren't simultaneously corrupt, that keeps that power in check. Magically that has worked pretty well! Not that there isn't all kinds of corruption in the government (and bad things generally), but there isn't that particular kind of corruption, the corruption that emanates from the heart of the presidency, from the president himself. There was, with Nixon, and the system kinda worked. He resigned and Jimmy Carter had to sell his peanut farm.
And if the Republicans in Congress just roll over, and the press isn't putting up a "resignation watch, day X" banner, and people don't camp permanently outside the White House, the Cabinet doesn't have a 25th amendment moment, and noble civil servants in and out of the White House don't resign and speak loudly, etc..., etc..., we're unlikely to get that back.
And if the Republicans in Congress just roll over, and the press isn't putting up a "resignation watch, day X" banner, and people don't camp permanently outside the White House, the Cabinet doesn't have a 25th amendment moment, and noble civil servants in and out of the White House don't resign and speak loudly, etc..., etc..., we're unlikely to get that back.
But About Those Written Statements
Trump's babbling about how difficult it is for his lickspittles to be perfectly correct on the podium.
There were written statements that were, you know, ALSO WRONG.
And wowzer:
...Maybe the best thing to do would be to cancel all future "press briefings" and hand out written responses for the sake of accuracy???
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 12, 2017
There were written statements that were, you know, ALSO WRONG.
And wowzer:
James Comey better hope that there are no "tapes" of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 12, 2017
Thursday, May 11, 2017
Positive Reviews
Reporters is so weird.
Other than the lying, she was great!
Another source said the president is speaking to advisors not just about the idea of replacing Spicer and who would be good for the role, but also about the job Sarah Huckabee Sanders has done in her turns at the podium, where she has seemed relaxed, smiling, and drawing positive reviews from reporters in the briefing room and on Twitter, despite still being criticized for misrepresenting the tick tock of events regarding the Comey firing.
Other than the lying, she was great!
Could Be Worse
I can imagine that for most reasons President Pence would be even worse. Sure we wouldn't have the ridiculousness of it all, but The Grownups Would Be Back In Charge and The Democrats Must Learn To Work With President Pence To Heal The Country (do whatever he wants) and a somewhat more competent implementation of evil would commence.
That is, unless the shit hits the fan under President Trump. It'll be 3 months of reading The Pet Goat.
That is, unless the shit hits the fan under President Trump. It'll be 3 months of reading The Pet Goat.
$732 A Head
Of course many or likely most of these kids are citizens, but consider the actual financial calculation being made here, the "savings" (really, imposing a different expense on the Feds) from detaining and eventually deporting 80,000 children
We're a very cruel country. Let's remember that next time we embark on a "humanitarian war."
OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — A new Republican caucus in the Oklahoma House is suggesting that more than 80,000 non-English speaking students in public schools be turned over to federal immigration officials.
Broken Arrow Republican Rep. Mike Ritze told News9 in an interview Wednesday that the newly created Republican Platform Caucus believes the state could save $60 million if it would identify what the caucus believes is 82,000 non-English speaking students “and then turn them over” to Immigration and Customs Enforcement to determine if they are citizens.
We're a very cruel country. Let's remember that next time we embark on a "humanitarian war."
Cretins
While this is a window into a scary mind, it's also a reminder of how much Trump craves approval.
And when exactly did Trump get oohs and aahs from the cable news goons? When he blew people up.
You know what’s interesting, I’m getting very good marks in foreign policy. People would not think of me in that light. I’m just saying, and you read the same things I read. I’m getting As and A+s on foreign policy. And nobody thought about it.
And when exactly did Trump get oohs and aahs from the cable news goons? When he blew people up.
Here are some things Donald Trump is famous for:
1) Noticing which things he does that elicit positive attention and then doing those things over and over and over again.
2) Craving the validation of the press, generally the sort of press a 70-year-old upper class New Yorker pays attention to, especially cable news.
If one dead American service member won him this much praise, just imagine how much they’ll respect him when he kills a couple hundred—or a couple thousand!
Now that Trump has learned that there is a direct relationship between a president’s body count and how “presidential” the mainstream political press considers him to be, the whole world is fucked.
Former Acting Director
WASHINGTON (AP) — Acting FBI Director Andrew McCabe tells Senate panel he will not update the White House on the Russia investigation.
— Steve Kopack (@SteveKopack) May 11, 2017
2 Cheers For Incompetence
Running things is hard. I would be bad at it. You have to hire. You have to manage. You have to delegate. You have to stay on top of everything without micromanaging. You have to figure out which things need your attention and which things don't. It's a lot of work, but we're human and we can't and shouldn't work all the time. Often there's a public role and you are the public face of the endeavor in addition to being its overseer.
Trump's hired very few people to run things, and those he has appear to be cartoonishly incompetent, people whose only real experience is organizing a College Republican affirmative action bake sale. This will be great until the shit hits the fan.
Trump's hired very few people to run things, and those he has appear to be cartoonishly incompetent, people whose only real experience is organizing a College Republican affirmative action bake sale. This will be great until the shit hits the fan.
Also, I Just Invented Pizza
It's really bad.
This is actually the most coherent, if stupid, thing in this interview:
This is actually the most coherent, if stupid, thing in this interview:
President Trump: That all goes into tax reduction. Tremendous savings.But beyond that it’s OK if the tax plan increases the deficit?
It is OK, because it won’t increase it for long. You may have two years where you’ll…you understand the expression “prime the pump”?Yes.We have to prime the pump.It’s very Keynesian.
We’re the highest-taxed nation in the world. Have you heard that expression before, for this particular type of an event?Priming the pump?
Yeah, have you heard it?Yes.
Have you heard that expression used before? Because I haven’t heard it. I mean, I just…I came up with it a couple of days ago and I thought it was good. It’s what you have to do.
Wednesday, May 10, 2017
What's It All About Then
Donald Trump was always a preening narcissistic dumbass. The dude has been on my teevee almost my whole life. "President Donald Trump" would always have been absurd joke (on us, as it happens). He would always be bad at this job.
But 15 years ago he wasn't like this. A dumb horrible narcissistic asshole, sure. But not like this.
But 15 years ago he wasn't like this. A dumb horrible narcissistic asshole, sure. But not like this.
Yes, We Knew
Oy.
After President Trump accused his predecessor in March of wiretapping him, James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, was flabbergasted. The president, Mr. Comey told associates, was “outside the realm of normal,” even “crazy.”
Easy Peasy
If the black guy can do it, he can too. No problem.
Trump is grappling with the harsh reality of governing and media scrutiny, which he has told friends he hoped would eventually abate, per R
— Robert Costa (@costareports) May 10, 2017
President Pence
It's a bit of a mystery why most elected Republicans wouldn't think/don't seem to think that would be the best possible outcome.
Except For First And Business Class
Bannings laptops in the cabin is stupid in part because putting them in the hold might actually be dangerous absent terrorism concerns, but there's no way rich people will put up with this so they will quickly figure out a rich people workaround.
The Department of Homeland Security will ban laptops in the cabins of all flights from Europe to the United States, European security officials told The Daily Beast. The announcement is expected Thursday.
You're Next
Because it apparently isn't obvious to Republicans, Trump loves nothing more than to turn on and abuse the people who help most, casting them out of the circle. Firing them, so to speak, for any tiny perceived slight. Ivanka is the only one who seems immune from that, for whatever reason.
Heckuva Job
Of course more unpopular it becomes, the worse The President Trump show is going to get...
American voters, who gave President Donald Trump a slight approval bump after the missile strike in Syria, today give him a near-record negative 36 - 58 percent job approval rating, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. Critical are big losses among white voters with no college degree, white men and independent voters.
Afternoon Thread
Is Kissinger FBI Director yet? Thanks everybody in Washington who has treated this war criminal like a distinguished elder statesman, and delightful party guest, for decades...
Shut It Down
Basically the Dems can slow everything down in the Senate so that everything is horrible for everybody.
They can't really prevent everything, but they can make everything take so much time that life is miserable.
Finally, Democrats — with or without a handful of Republican allies, but preferably with them — can basically try to grind the Senate to a halt, by refusing cooperation on any legislation or nominations or anything, until GOP leaders and/or the White House agree to some form of independent investigation. “Every time they’re asked to cooperate on something, this needs to be front and center,” Wittes says. “They needs to be focused like a laser beam on that every time they’re asked to give unanimous consent.”
They can't really prevent everything, but they can make everything take so much time that life is miserable.
SPICEY
What was he doing in those bushes.
After Spicer spent several minutes hidden in the bushes behind these sets, Janet Montesi, an executive assistant in the press office, emerged and told reporters that Spicer would answer some questions, as long as he was not filmed doing so. Spicer then emerged.
“Just turn the lights off. Turn the lights off,” he ordered. “We'll take care of this. ... Can you just turn that light off?”
In Case People Didn't Notice
The president is an addled old guy who spends most of his time watching the President Trump show on teevee getting increasingly angry that the President Trump character isn't the dapper, noble, and beloved hero he is supposed to be.
And then he lashes out by yelling at people on the internet.
And then he lashes out by yelling at people on the internet.