Rock on.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
The Climate... It Is Changing
I am sometimes wrong (you all point and laugh and say usually) and probably one of my bad wrong things was being a bit of climate change skeptic. Not skeptical that it was happening, but slightly skeptical that it would be catastrophic. If it is a 50 year thing instead of a 20 year thing...big difference!
I have probably been on the wrong side of that.
I have probably been on the wrong side of that.
The End Of Society
Facebook is embracing dating and wow this is going to ruin the world. Horny boomers are all gonna get divorced now.
This is not going to end well.
This is not going to end well.
Infrastructure Week
Sometimes I think I'm too hard on team D (and many of you get mad it me) and then they do something like have big bipartisan moment with Trump for a thing that will never actually happen.
Who Is "we"
Objective journalism never is.
We spent most of the Obama years shutting down the govt and flirting with default because folks like Mulvaney said debt was going to destroy us. Now it’s ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
— Ben White (@morningmoneyben) April 30, 2019
How To Live Now
When you are 22 or so you are supposed to have borrowed about 100 hundred grand for college, started saving for retirement, starting saving for a down payment, started saving for your future child's college education, ...
I think this does not work so well.
I think this does not work so well.
Only Losers Ride The Bus
NYC's Select Bus Service, where you pay at a kiosk before boarding the bus, has been hugely successful where instituted. I've pretty much stopped taking taxis to the East Side; SBS does the job beautifully 2/ https://t.co/SHPvx2ZdyY
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) April 30, 2019
I love the bus.
Monday, April 29, 2019
Glibertarians
Slave owners did many bad things, but each owner didn't do every single one.
— Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) April 29, 2019
What To Do About A Problem Like Trump
The thing is, Trump isn't the problem. All your favorite pundits do their best to pretend otherwise, but the problem is that there is not a single Republican in federal office who objects to him.
Sunday, April 28, 2019
Saturday, April 27, 2019
Saturday, Saturday
I was pretty excited when I woke up from my nap at 6, thinking it was 6am. Alas...
I Am So In Shape
This old man does run and 5K (slow) is not a big deal. The thing about getting in shape is it takes a lot of time and even this weirdo with no kids and no boss (except you, my dear readers) finds it hard.
Friday, April 26, 2019
All Blogged Out
My dumb job is sort of easy but the pressure to say something - anything - is sometimes stressful.
I got nothin'.
I got nothin'.
Turn The Machines Back On
Trading Places is one of the greatest movies ever made, and the callback to the Duke Brothers in "Coming to America" is the best callback ever.
discuss.
discuss.
Voters
I don't remember too much from grad school because all that advanced math that cluttered up my brain was replaced with mad shitposting skills, but one thing which always stuck with me was a certain paper I read at some point. It didn't stick with me enough that I remember the authors and title, of course, but the basic empirical result.
It was an old paper and who knows how robust and repeatable it was, but this was it:
A major determinant of the likelihood of school bond issues passing in local elections was if the voting population was white and older and the school aged population was less white. That made them less likely to pass, of course.
It was an old paper and who knows how robust and repeatable it was, but this was it:
A major determinant of the likelihood of school bond issues passing in local elections was if the voting population was white and older and the school aged population was less white. That made them less likely to pass, of course.
SHHHHHH
If you don't point out the flaws in a candidate, no one else will either.
This is a joke, but it is a little true. Mainstream journalists mostly attack Democrats from the right. You know, "THAT TIME JOE BIDEN WAS MEAN TO CREDIT CARD COMPANIES HE IS NOW DOOMED WITH OHIO CREDIT CARD MINERS." Only weirdos on the internet criticize them from the left.
This is a joke, but it is a little true. Mainstream journalists mostly attack Democrats from the right. You know, "THAT TIME JOE BIDEN WAS MEAN TO CREDIT CARD COMPANIES HE IS NOW DOOMED WITH OHIO CREDIT CARD MINERS." Only weirdos on the internet criticize them from the left.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
I Am So Sorry About This Thing That Made You Feel Bad Which I Was Maybe Witness To? Not Sure
I guess I have to leave this one open for discussion. Is Joe Biden leaking that he made a call to Anita Hill suggesting (not saying) that he apologized, opening the door for her to respond (which she did), that she did not consider it an apology, some grand strategery to appeal to the people inclined to hate Anita Hill or just because Biden has the maturity of an 8-year-old and can't fake an apology?
I apologize sincerely for everything bad you can think of that I did 25+ years ago. What an idiot I was then!
I apologize sincerely for everything bad you can think of that I did 25+ years ago. What an idiot I was then!
Sometimes I Do Bad Blog Posts
And I have just admitted more error than anyone working for the NYT ever does.
The Crime Of Being Black And Knowing Other Black People
Being a "former prosecutor" has long been part of the preferred resume for Democratic candidates. Gotta be tough like those GOP Daddies. Gotta be tougher than those GOP Daddies. In our new woke times I hope we put an end to this career path.
Cars Are Bad
Most of you need them for your daily lives but much of the world doesn't live this way (plenty of people have cars in other rich countries - and other countries generally - they just don't need them every time they want to buy a quart of milk or an apple or, god forbid, go have a beer). We live under the constraints we face and 70 years of building a society around cars isn't going to be unraveled quickly (narrator: or at all) but it's ridiculous that you can build a giant 60s space colony in the middle of nowhere with more parking space than office space and no legitimate connection to the public transit network and claim, seriously, that you have a green (the greenest!) building.
Wednesday, April 24, 2019
Fair, Balanced, and Blonde
Admittedly it's the kind of crack a liberal critic might make, but not for the same reason.
Not Bothsidesing
Both sides are not perfect, of course, but positing that there is corruption on "both sides" that serves to cover it all up is not suggesting it is of equal magnitude. But when, for example, the nominally Democratic DA of New York City seemingly teams up with the Republican now-Labor Secretary to cover up and minimize the child rape by a rich guy, and the story is perhaps not getting quite as much attention as it should, well..
For example.
For example.
Kompromat
Sometimes one wonders what the Republican party has on the Democrats.
Sort of a joke, but the more serious version is that corruption is bipartisan (certainly of the donor classes if not as much the electeds), and no one really wants peeking behind the curtain.
Sort of a joke, but the more serious version is that corruption is bipartisan (certainly of the donor classes if not as much the electeds), and no one really wants peeking behind the curtain.
We Tried To Tell You
Not that it's about *me* (as the little voice in my head screams MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE), but it was a bit difficult in the early days of the Obama administration pointing out how badly they were fucking things up. And they did fuck things up and a lot of people suffered and all so Tim Geithner's pals could stay rich and so the Gods Of The Market could be pacified by the continued immiseration of the population. I haven't read Reed's book yet, but he's not the obvious person to play the role of critic.
That these supergeniuses didn't understand that "I lost my job and am losing my house" was more important than headlines about a fiscally conservative stimulus or lukewarm praise from David Brooks or some bullshit...
In the end, the stimulus would prove weaker than even Romer thought. Unemployment would remain over 9 percent until late in 2011. The unimpressive recovery surely contributed to the massive vote swing toward the Republicans in the 2010 midterm elections and their takeover of the House of Representatives; the slow hard march back to prosperity left many voters still bitter even in 2016. To the extent that the decision to ask for a smaller stimulus resulted from, as David Axelrod tells Hundt, “political judgments, not economic judgments,” it backfired. The Democrats gained no evident support for their demonstration of restraint in crafting a spending package, and their apparent ineptitude in fighting the recession weakened them when afterward they sought vital environmental and health care legislation.
That these supergeniuses didn't understand that "I lost my job and am losing my house" was more important than headlines about a fiscally conservative stimulus or lukewarm praise from David Brooks or some bullshit...
Our Special Knowledge
It's probably reasonable to say that the anti-vax movement started out on "The Left" though mostly that particular West Coast slice of "The Left" which is much more about attitude and personal lifestyle choices than actual politics, but since then it's metastasized and is largely a right wing nutter thing. I don't quite get it, though. Trying to read some of The Discourse among its adherents doesn't leave me very enlightened. It doesn't seem to be much deeper than vaccines are bad, and we special people know that, and therefore do not vaccinate our kids, and people who do vaccinate their kids are bad because reasons.
Yes once upon a time the supposed vaccine-autism link was the big thing...now I'm not even sure? It's still there, but it isn't the only thing.
Yes once upon a time the supposed vaccine-autism link was the big thing...now I'm not even sure? It's still there, but it isn't the only thing.
Tuesday, April 23, 2019
My President
He's very online just like us!
Half of conservative twitter is them whining because they think they are being oppressed somehow.
A significant portion of the meeting focused on Trump’s concerns that Twitter quietly, and deliberately, has limited or removed some of his followers, according to a person with direct knowledge of the conversation who requested anonymity because it was private. Trump said he had heard from fellow conservatives who had lost followers for unclear reasons as well.
Half of conservative twitter is them whining because they think they are being oppressed somehow.
Hello Fellow Children
The oldest millennials are 38 or so. I'm not entirely sure when 38 became "young" but ok fine 38 is young. But what 38 isn't is 20, and the cultural overlap between 20-year-olds and 38-year-olds is not huge. 38 young is not the same as 20 young.
How It's Going To Go
The Trump administration will fight all oversight. Conservative hack judges, many of whom had nice writeups about them from eventheliberal fancy lawyers, will defer to the executive based on some made up principles. If ever there is a Dem president in office they will rediscover the dangers of such deference - we went a bit too far, you see - and unimpeded oversight will suddenly be the norm.
The circle of life.
The circle of life.
Smears
Back when I had a tiny bit of contact with DC people, educating them about how the puke funnel works and how to deal with right wing media was part of what I tried to do (informally, mostly). They still are bad at it.
Sure.
After eight years of the Obama presidency, Democrats should be very good at identifying a baseless smear campaign when they see one. The skills they should have honed under Obama would be crucial now, with prolific liar Donald Trump in office. Relentless fact-checking won’t end Trumpism’s hold on America, but the president’s political opponents ought to at least be able to discern between truth and fiction. Instead, it’s not clear what, if anything, the party’s leaders learned from its Obama-era battles. Faced with a smear campaign against one of its newest congresswomen, the party has stumbled repeatedly.The instinct is to always blame the victim. This can't happen to me. If I just behave, they won't punch me.
Sure.
Nicer Things Aren't Possible
I'm not sure if I prefer vague aspirational bullshit or very detailed "all we can hope for is a slightly expanded tax advantaged savings vehicle."
The former is at least a little hopey.
The former is at least a little hopey.
Monday, April 22, 2019
Not Just Me
Consumer reports.
David Friedman, Vice President of Advocacy for Consumer Reports, said, “Technology has the potential to shape future transportation to be safer, less expensive, and more accessible. Yet, safety must always come first. Today’s driver assistance technologies have helped deliver on safety, but the marketplace is full of bold claims about self-driving capabilities that overpromise and underdeliver. For instance, Tesla’s current driver-assist system, ‘Autopilot,’ is no substitute for a human driver. It can’t dependably navigate common road situations on its own, and fails to keep the driver engaged exactly when it is needed most.
“We’ve heard promises of self-driving vehicles being just around the corner from Tesla before. Claims about the company’s driving automation systems and safety are not backed up by the data, and it seems today’s presentations had more to do with investors than consumers’ safety. We agree that Tesla, and every other car company, has a moral imperative to make transportation safer, and all companies should embrace the most important principle: preventing harm and saving lives.
More Of A Shelbyville Idea
Wasted a bit of time watching Elon's Musk pretend "full self driving" announcement. Then I went to the gym because running on the treadmill was more pleasant.
There's a new chip because at some point Elon got mad that his robot cars weren't working, threw a tantrum, and screamed "WOULD IT HELP IF WE HAD A BETTER CHIP???" And one of his highly paid guys said, uh, sure, Elon, we just need a better chip.
So they made a chip, or paid someone else to make a chip, or something.
It's better than the chip from 3 years ago, but not better than anybody else's chips from... today. But, ok, fine, there's a better chip.
It's a cool chip. And they just have to solve the software problem. Almost there. Gonna solve that software problem. By the end of the year (no, really). And the robotaxis will be ready... next year. IF the regulators approve! Elon always says it needs regulator approval, but he never says who the regulators are because they don't exist.
What a con man.
There's a new chip because at some point Elon got mad that his robot cars weren't working, threw a tantrum, and screamed "WOULD IT HELP IF WE HAD A BETTER CHIP???" And one of his highly paid guys said, uh, sure, Elon, we just need a better chip.
So they made a chip, or paid someone else to make a chip, or something.
It's better than the chip from 3 years ago, but not better than anybody else's chips from... today. But, ok, fine, there's a better chip.
It's a cool chip. And they just have to solve the software problem. Almost there. Gonna solve that software problem. By the end of the year (no, really). And the robotaxis will be ready... next year. IF the regulators approve! Elon always says it needs regulator approval, but he never says who the regulators are because they don't exist.
What a con man.
But What About Me
I wasn't kidding with the last sentence here. I've seen a lot of evenliberals get mad at the idea that someone else is being helped and they weren't. I get it. Sucks to be born at the wrong time. But "no one can have nice things unless I have nice things" is how we got here. Well that and a lot of "this self-made man paid for college with a minimum wage summer job in 1966, why can't you kids???"
3 Months, 6 Months, Certainly By The End Of The Year
Consumer fraud is rampant but it's a bit more of a problem when it involves two ton high speed death machines.
This is going to be hilarious.
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Tesla CEO Elon Musk appears poised to transform the company’s electric cars into driverless vehicles in a risky bid to realize a bold vision that he has been floating for years.
The technology required to make that quantum leap is scheduled to be shown off to Tesla investors Monday at the company’s Palo Alto, California, headquarters.
This is going to be hilarious.
Jubilee
Sounds good to me.
The first step in addressing this crisis is to deal head-on with the outstanding debt that is weighing down millions of families and should never have been required in the first place. That’s why I’m calling for something truly transformational — the cancellation of up to $50,000 in student loan debt for 42 million Americans.Cue people saying "what about mah college that I paid for?"
Sunday, April 21, 2019
The Book of Faces
The good news is it won't be too long before the average age of users on that hellsite, at least in the US, is older than the average age of Fox viewers.
What I Hated About School Was
Every now and then I hear stories about why rich people get involved in education. There's the charter grift, of course, but other than the grift some of these people seem to be well-meaning, but if you boil down their motives it seems to be something like:
When I was a kid in school, I didn't like that they did things this way, and I would have learned better if they did things this other way.
I'm no expert teacher but in my not so vast experience, different students learn differently. All the various flavors-of-the-week of instruction style probably do better for some students, and less well for other students, and while you can't (also, this is bad, so don't) cater to every student individually, a little bit of a mix that plays to your own personal strengths (some teachers are better at THIS rather than THAT and that's just the way it is) as a teacher is the way to go.
Also you don't have to think rich people are all supergeniuses to think they probably aren't...typical.
When I was a kid in school, I didn't like that they did things this way, and I would have learned better if they did things this other way.
I'm no expert teacher but in my not so vast experience, different students learn differently. All the various flavors-of-the-week of instruction style probably do better for some students, and less well for other students, and while you can't (also, this is bad, so don't) cater to every student individually, a little bit of a mix that plays to your own personal strengths (some teachers are better at THIS rather than THAT and that's just the way it is) as a teacher is the way to go.
Also you don't have to think rich people are all supergeniuses to think they probably aren't...typical.
Saturday, April 20, 2019
I Didn't Plan To Lie, I Just Do It Automatically Like Breathing
What a defense!
Asked on “Good Morning America” if the report had damaged her credibility, Ms. Sanders responded that she had made the statement in the heat of the moment, and that it was not “a scripted talking point.”Good enough for the White House press, probably.
Friday, April 19, 2019
D-Day Girls
Friend of the blog (you know, she admits to reading it sometimes) Sarah Rose wrote a book. Not too far in yet, but it's good! You should buy it. History but a real page-turner.
A bit more about it:
A bit more about it:
D-Day Girls, written with novelistic detail, weaves together five women’s narratives using historical research from contemporary periodicals, archives, and interview records. The British government, Rose writes, was initially concerned about allowing women into the Special Operations Executive (SOE), a secret agency formed in 1940 to foment insurgency in land captured by Nazi Germany. Nicknamed the “Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare” by Winston Churchill, the SOE did not send female agents overseas until 1942. As Rose writes, “Putting women in the line of fire was obscene, the brass said: War is fought by men for the sake of women and children. … The Edwardians who ran the war … believed female recruits would deliver a new weapon into Hitler’s hands: rape.” Such arguments, as Rose recounts them, echo contemporary U.S. officials’ concerns about putting women in combat.
Whatcha Gonna Do
Pareene:
The problem is, Hoyer apparently doesn’t want to do those things. What Hoyer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (who ruled out impeachment well before anyone read the Mueller Report) want is to write op-eds about how many bills they are passing, despite the fact that those bills (like, uh, impeachment) will never get through the Senate.
Democratic leadership seemingly believes that the party can’t let its candidates campaign on promises to materially improve the lives of voters while also letting its elected officials carry out the responsibilities of their offices. They also believe, deep in their bones, that the country is not on their side. They believe going after Trump too directly will stir his mighty base, rather than imagining that full and transparent investigations into his various fraudulent and corrupt activities may demoralize his staunchest supporters—just as Trump himself was demoralized at the prospect of Mueller’s investigation—while also persuading those people who aren’t already in the cult of MAGA that this administration, and the party that abets it, need to be soundly defeated.
Once again, we can celebrate a modern example of bipartisanship: a deep conviction, on both sides, that the only legitimate force in American politics is white grievance.
Fractal Stupidity
My rule of political scandal is that it has to at least be a little bit stupid. There are the takes, the countertakes, and then the third level of take is "THIS IS SO STUPID WHY ARE WE EVEN TALKING ABOUT IT" which can inspire a whole additional layer of countertakes until the mass of takes is so great that cable news just implodes on itself.
Such it is with almost anything Elon Musk does these days. His "loop" proposals are also so stupid that I CAN'T EVEN BELIEVE I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT HOW STUPID THEY ARE and as you peel back the layers you find even more additional layers of stupid.
But the answer to why are we even talking about it is because he's a supposedly rich guy and people in power listen to rich guys and there is some chance that some dumb stuff they thought about while tweeting on the can becomes an immense public boondoggle.
Such it is with almost anything Elon Musk does these days. His "loop" proposals are also so stupid that I CAN'T EVEN BELIEVE I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT HOW STUPID THEY ARE and as you peel back the layers you find even more additional layers of stupid.
But the answer to why are we even talking about it is because he's a supposedly rich guy and people in power listen to rich guys and there is some chance that some dumb stuff they thought about while tweeting on the can becomes an immense public boondoggle.
What if I proposed digging two 35-mile tunnels that would begin and end right next to two train stations that currently have service between one another? And this tunnel would be right underneath an existing highway? But this tunnel would be used to skim cars along tracks at speeds no one has achieved yet? And it would move fewer than two trains’ worth of people per direction per day?
You’d probably say something like hey, Aaron, that’s very stupid. And you’d be right.
But what if Elon Musk proposed this?
The Problem Isn't That He's Vulgar, It's That He's A Crook
If you can't impeach Trump, you can't impeach anyone. And if the opposition party doesn't use what power it has, what is the point of electing them?
Back To My Obsessions
One problem with Tesla is they are constantly updating their "autopilot" features with over the air updates. Autopilot isn't really autopilot, it's just driver assist features which Elon likes to claim lets the car drive itself, even as his legal department says NO NO NO NO. But whatever the merits of the features of themselves, on all cars with such capabilities, there are two entities now driving the car. On an old fashioned car without a sentient being in the computer making extra decisions, I hit the gas, turn the wheel, hit the brake... I know what's going to happen. Driver assist safety features mean the little Chappie inside the computer is sometimes going to step in and make decisions for you. Those might be great features! But they also require a bit of learning on the part of the driver. If your car is going to suddenly swerve or brake to avoid an accident - maybe a good feature! - then as a driver you have to be somewhat aware of how this works.
If every few weeks they send a software update which modifies how this works, you need to relearn this a bit. Maybe just a bit. It's not a big deal. But knowing how your car is going to respond in certain situations and understanding when it does is important, if for no other reason than you don't panic when it does happen.
Tesla takes it a step further because it does want to claim the car can sorta drive itself on highways BUT DO NOT TAKE YOUR HANDS OFF THE WHEEL - LEGAL and now does automatic lane changes. To the extent that it is driving itself - and it is, some - having your hands on the wheel isn't going to help much. If you're expecting your car to change a lane without your help you aren't going to realize until it's too late that it's about to swerve into a semi. Essentially you're going to be battling a second driver who you are supposed to trust is doing the right thing.
It makes everybody the instructor in a student car, one with a second set of controls, having to know when to intervene when the student is about to mess up, but also needing to trust that the student is going to do the right thing. But that student changes every few weeks, as the software updates arrive, and behaves a bit differently. This is hard!
If every few weeks they send a software update which modifies how this works, you need to relearn this a bit. Maybe just a bit. It's not a big deal. But knowing how your car is going to respond in certain situations and understanding when it does is important, if for no other reason than you don't panic when it does happen.
Tesla takes it a step further because it does want to claim the car can sorta drive itself on highways BUT DO NOT TAKE YOUR HANDS OFF THE WHEEL - LEGAL and now does automatic lane changes. To the extent that it is driving itself - and it is, some - having your hands on the wheel isn't going to help much. If you're expecting your car to change a lane without your help you aren't going to realize until it's too late that it's about to swerve into a semi. Essentially you're going to be battling a second driver who you are supposed to trust is doing the right thing.
It makes everybody the instructor in a student car, one with a second set of controls, having to know when to intervene when the student is about to mess up, but also needing to trust that the student is going to do the right thing. But that student changes every few weeks, as the software updates arrive, and behaves a bit differently. This is hard!
Hey He Does Have Subpoena Power
totally cool
NADLER: We will subpoena that entire report today.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) April 19, 2019
Q: That subpoena is coming today?
NADLER: That subpoena will come in the next couple of hours.
Q: Including the grand jury evidence?
NADLER: Including the grand jury evidence, yes.
Via ABC pic.twitter.com/Fg2n1iUusg
whoopsie
The news, man, it's always changing.
Picture 1 and Picture 2 since twitter always formats it badly.
Huh. Whoopsie daisy. pic.twitter.com/458YyyXRmP
— Greg Greene (@ggreeneva) April 19, 2019
Picture 1 and Picture 2 since twitter always formats it badly.
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Wow There Are Elections Every Two Years
The Dem view that they can't impeach Trump unless the Republicans let them is their general approach to governance.
Well He Did
The legal issues are above my pay grade, of course. I'm no Bob Loblaw.
...
Sears Holdings Corp. has filed a lawsuit against its former chairman and CEO, Edward Lampert, and his hedge fund, claiming they wrongly siphoned $2 billion in assets from the company as it headed for bankruptcy.
“Had defendants not taken these illegal and improper actions, Sears would have had billions of dollars more to pay its third-party creditors today and would not have endured the amount of disruption, expense, and job losses resulting from its recent bankruptcy filing,” lawyers for company wrote in a court filing.
...
The lawsuit also names former Sears directors and ESL executives and directors including U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, ...
The Fixer
I don't know what to do with a press corps that knew exactly what Barr was and pretended they didn't.
I like to imagine they are stupid, because it's preferable to the alternative, but they aren't stupid. They do it on purpose. Their roles are scripted and they perform them and get mad at anybody who doesn't or points it out.
and how did that happen? such a mystery. so weird.
I like to imagine they are stupid, because it's preferable to the alternative, but they aren't stupid. They do it on purpose. Their roles are scripted and they perform them and get mad at anybody who doesn't or points it out.
>> @ChuckTodd on NBC's special report: "The way this has been rolled out has been very helpful to the president... In essence, he's gotten a three and a half week ahead start."
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) April 18, 2019
and how did that happen? such a mystery. so weird.
Get Your Barr-Related Commentary Elsewhere
Couldn't watch as I said, so skip my boring obsession and talk about it amongst yourselves.
If only a store called "Saks Fifth Avenue" existed on Fifth Avenue.
The Hamptons?
Christ.
There will be a helicopter landing pad on the roof of the Saks Fifth Avenue store located in the Collections at American Dream, the center's luxury retail section, the New York Post reported.
Having the pad allows guests the chance to fly in from New York City, airports, the Hamptons, and other places, an American Dream spokesperson said.
If only a store called "Saks Fifth Avenue" existed on Fifth Avenue.
The Hamptons?
Christ.
Monorail
I know my obsessions bore most of you, but there is often (not always) some purpose to my madness. Read the whole thread, as the kids say, but basically...
Elon Musk's much touted "hyperloop" from DC to Baltimore has now been downgraded to the lesser brand "loop."
The "loop" is even dumber than hyperloop, in that the latter is only nuts because the technology doesn't exist, while the former is nuts because it's just stupid even if you build it.
The plan is to dig a tunnel. Single lane of traffic each way. It could carry ONE THOUSAND specially modified cars (actual cars. but special cars. not your car. really.) per day. Half what a highway lane carries in an hour. There's a picture. Really. It's a specially built car that looks like a car, but it isn't your car. You can't take your car in the tunnel, but instead of building a vehicle that could carry lots of people, it's car. Not a big car. A sedan.
It promises speeds of UP TO ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILES PER HOUR. Sure, Elon, but fine, let's call it 120 MPH average speed. Even lowly Amtrak can average 80+ mph between DC and NYC and each train can carry 300 people. They run more than once per day.
One of Elon's great tunneling ideas what that he could make bricks with the dirt and solve homelessness or something. No more bricks.
Of course this is a private project which will take no public money. hahahaahahaahahahahaha.
Elon Musk's much touted "hyperloop" from DC to Baltimore has now been downgraded to the lesser brand "loop."
The "loop" is even dumber than hyperloop, in that the latter is only nuts because the technology doesn't exist, while the former is nuts because it's just stupid even if you build it.
The plan is to dig a tunnel. Single lane of traffic each way. It could carry ONE THOUSAND specially modified cars (actual cars. but special cars. not your car. really.) per day. Half what a highway lane carries in an hour. There's a picture. Really. It's a specially built car that looks like a car, but it isn't your car. You can't take your car in the tunnel, but instead of building a vehicle that could carry lots of people, it's car. Not a big car. A sedan.
It promises speeds of UP TO ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILES PER HOUR. Sure, Elon, but fine, let's call it 120 MPH average speed. Even lowly Amtrak can average 80+ mph between DC and NYC and each train can carry 300 people. They run more than once per day.
One of Elon's great tunneling ideas what that he could make bricks with the dirt and solve homelessness or something. No more bricks.
Of course this is a private project which will take no public money. hahahaahahaahahahahaha.
Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Tomorrow
According to reporters according to people familiar with Barr's thinking and probably two people close to Jared and Ivanka too, the redacted Barr report isn't really THAT REDACTED SO STOP SAYING THAT SHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUPSHUTUP and will tell us ALL we need to know.
My prediction is that Barr is counting on the press being much less smart than any parent of an 8-year-old, and the report will contain evidence of something bad BUT NOT TOO BAD. You know, the old "plead guilty to a lesser offense than the one you actually did" lie. Wow Barr actually revealed that bad thing! What a great and honest and noble Attorney General he is. Perhaps the best we have ever had.
Of course what's under the black marker will be much much worse. And, hey, we may even hear about it some day. On page A18.
My prediction is that Barr is counting on the press being much less smart than any parent of an 8-year-old, and the report will contain evidence of something bad BUT NOT TOO BAD. You know, the old "plead guilty to a lesser offense than the one you actually did" lie. Wow Barr actually revealed that bad thing! What a great and honest and noble Attorney General he is. Perhaps the best we have ever had.
Of course what's under the black marker will be much much worse. And, hey, we may even hear about it some day. On page A18.
Markers
I read a lot of the internet, especially when I have a new boring obsession, and it's a useful reminder that people can seem to be really really smart and yet be really really stupid. People write in complete and intelligible and for-the-internet grammatically correct sentences and paragraphs. Have a big vocabulary. Make what seem to be comprehensive and complex arguments. Seem to have knowledge. And be total blithering idiots.
Seeming smart is an easier skill than is genuinely understood.
Seeming smart is an easier skill than is genuinely understood.
Hacks
The conservative movement is filled with shameless hacks who will say anything if they imagine it will further their cause. I don't want everybody to be like that, but a political movement probably needs some people like that in our dumb cable news driven discourse. But recent years have been Peak Hack for team D, and the results have not been good. Don't have any problem with hacks, but the "further the cause" part is important. Hacks have to be effective, and not just effective at drawing a salary.
Going To Defeat You With Science And Logic
There are a lot of metanarratives that do not die no matter what the reality. Republicans are the National Security party (George Bush kept us safe). Republicans are the economy party. Republicans care deeply about fiscal conservatism. One can at least tell stories about how those came to be and why they persist, even if they are bullshit. But the weirdest one is that Republicans are the Smart Science Party and Democrats are, I dunno, the dumb English major party or something. I think it's just part of the general Daddy Party/Mommy Party frame, where Daddy Knows Things and Mommy just makes you a sandwich and hugs your booboos (in reality we know mom takes care of everything while Dad has a gambling problem). There is zero justification for this one, but somehow it persists...
The first Republican whose kid gets measles will have a change of heart and be praised for his noble open mindedness and willingness to change his position when the facts changed (narrator: the facts won't have changed). It'll take the second for something to get done.
Most Republicans are rejecting Democrat-led state bills to tighten childhood immunization laws in the midst of the worst measles outbreak in two decades, alarming public health experts who fear the nation could become as divided over vaccines as it is over global warming.
The first Republican whose kid gets measles will have a change of heart and be praised for his noble open mindedness and willingness to change his position when the facts changed (narrator: the facts won't have changed). It'll take the second for something to get done.
Tuesday, April 16, 2019
Lifestyles of The Rich and Not Quite So Famous
They are better than we are.
A new victim has gone public in the Jeffrey Epstein case, filing a sworn affidavit in federal court in New York Tuesday, saying that she was sexually assaulted and her then-15-year-old sister molested by Epstein and his companion, Ghislaine Maxwell, in 1996.
Maria Farmer, then 26, claims that she was employed by Epstein, a multimillionaire financier who lived in a vast mansion on New York’s Upper East Side, and that she frequently saw “school-age girls’’ wearing uniforms come into the mansion and go upstairs. She was told that the girls were auditioning for modeling work, according to her affidavit.
Fight The Man
I know at times I can be a bit too cynical on this dumb blog. Not necessarily incorrect cynical, but unhelpful cynical. Too much cynicism gets you to nihilism and then really what's the point, man? The people in charge (even most of the 'good' ones) do sorta suck and I find that yelling at them to be better is marginally more useful than clapping at them for occasionally doing the right thing. Not that they hear either!
The Mall With An Amusement Park
Back to one of my other boring obsessions. This is not about whether this project will succeed or fail by any measure. But as a notparent who occasionally takes care of some nieces and quickly learns how when you are with them money just flies out of your wallet, I can't imagine going to a place like this. I'd be scared to get anywhere near it. "Let's go buy some socks, kid." "CAN I RIDE THE ROLLERCOASTER DAD????"
KHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN
If the most we get out of the Mueller report (obviously pre-report some things happened too!) is Trump raging against his Trumpkins... not so bad, really!
Of particular concern is how Trump — and his allies — will react if it appears to be clear precisely what specific officials shared with Mueller, these people said.
“They got asked questions and told the truth and now they’re worried the wrath will follow,” one former White House official said.
The Plan Is Easy, Really
Just have the good, if imperfect team, win every election from now until the end of time and we shouldn't have any troubles.
We all remember that George Bush was Good, now, but his administration, charitably, pushed the limits on a lot of things. Even if you go "oopsie" on torture and Iraq and things like that, all the "unitary executive" and "Dick Cheney is the fourth branch of government and thus not subject to any oversight whatsoever by mere mortals" stuff was a few steps down the path of the idea that there can be no accountability for executive branch. You can defeat it in elections, or impeach as they obstruct justice with impunity, and that's it, and we're not always so sure about the first one. A lot more judges agree with them now.
Once again we'll look forward, not backward, and assume reversion to The Norms and the time when the Republican Party was Good (Nixon, Reagan, Bush I, oh so good and no extreme abuses of power whatsoever). Back to the status quo when we had no problems! All will be well.
We all remember that George Bush was Good, now, but his administration, charitably, pushed the limits on a lot of things. Even if you go "oopsie" on torture and Iraq and things like that, all the "unitary executive" and "Dick Cheney is the fourth branch of government and thus not subject to any oversight whatsoever by mere mortals" stuff was a few steps down the path of the idea that there can be no accountability for executive branch. You can defeat it in elections, or impeach as they obstruct justice with impunity, and that's it, and we're not always so sure about the first one. A lot more judges agree with them now.
Once again we'll look forward, not backward, and assume reversion to The Norms and the time when the Republican Party was Good (Nixon, Reagan, Bush I, oh so good and no extreme abuses of power whatsoever). Back to the status quo when we had no problems! All will be well.
Monday, April 15, 2019
Sure Elon
6 months, this year, next year...
I know I'm pessimistic about this stuff generally, but if the miracle does happen it certainly isn't coming from Tesla.
Musk told Fridman that Tesla customers would need to keep their hands on the wheel "for at least six months or something like that." But he predicted that soon—"maybe even toward the end of this year, I'd be shocked if it's not next year at the latest"—Tesla's self-driving technology will become so good that "having a human intervene will decrease safety."
Musk has maintained an optimistic mood about Tesla's self-driving progress at the same time that other industry CEOs have been tamping down expectations. (Musk is congenitally optimistic on this topic—in 2015, he predicted that fully self-driving cars would be ready within two years, declaring it a "much easier problem than people think it is.")
I know I'm pessimistic about this stuff generally, but if the miracle does happen it certainly isn't coming from Tesla.
Feel the Weldmentum
Bill Weld going to run against Trump, give neverTrumpers something to talk about.
Hey I Read That One
I read the 2019 fiction Pulitzer winner, The Overstory, by Richard Powers. I've read all of his books and either liked them or found them at least interesting enough to be worth reading.
The World's Dumbest Humans
Niall Ferguson.
This can be uncomfortable for anyone accustomed to unquestioned status and veneration: but that’s life, if you believe speech should be free. For years, privileged men have been able to frame themselves as agents provocateurs – often spouting the kind of opinions a roaring, angry drunk on the night bus might, but with a plummy accent, an Oxford degree, and an overreliance on antiquated vocabulary – in columns in national newspapers. Their fury is not that they have been silenced – they have not – but that their victims have argued back, and they have been forced to bear responsibility for their words.
For centuries, powerful people have been allowed to pour their prejudices freely into the public discourse. Their free speech is still not remotely under threat – the pages of many newspapers globally, and the volley of abuse anyone other than a white, straight man on social media receives daily, should assure them of that. But for the first time, the people targeted by the right, especially the academic right, are fighting back. With free speech comes responsibility: borrowing the language and ideology of the far right, but cloaking it in a style lifted from Brideshead Revisited, fools no one.
Nevertrumpers
I really don't get the genre of Republicans telling Democrats What They Must Do To Win Elections. It never occurs to me to do that, at least not in a way that I would expect them to listen to. I don't want them to win elections! I suppose at best you can say Nevertrumpers don't want Trump to win re-election, but you know 99% of them will, in more sorry than anger, decide that Joe Biden is just too much of a communist and if only the Democrats had selected Mayor Pete (you can swap the names here, it doesn't matter who the Dems pick). Still they certainly want Republicans to control the House and Senate and and they don't even hide this so why are they always telling Dems what to do? More than that, why does anyone care? It's bad enough coming from someone like David Brooks who at least pretends to be some sort of moderate sometimes, but most of the Nevertrumpers are pretty hardcore Republicans.
Do I Even Have To Make This Point
A thing about the Trump administration is that they are so dumb that it hardly feels worth bothering pointing out how dumb they are half the time. Of course it's a bit necessary because Both Sides journalism just throws it out there to let the reader decide because everything is always so confusing when it involves Republicans. But, you know, why is it necessary to provide any kind of rebuttal to the Mueller report which even the liberal New York Times informed me that the release of the report which wasn't released and no one at the New York Times had read meant "The darkest, most ominous cloud hanging over his presidency was all but lifted." So weird.
As Washington eagerly awaits the release of special counsel Robert Mueller’s report, President Trump’s team of lawyers is working feverishly to complete a counter-report to what Mueller’s redacted report might contain.
Morning, Morning
We had quite a storm overnight. Tornado warnings and everything. Seems to be all over now.
Sunday, April 14, 2019
Civilitude
Everybody, except maybe Fred Rogers, who asks for civility is just complaining, "mommy he hit me back!" And more often than not they're people who hit first with a two ton weight and then complain about getting spit balled.
I'm Running
It occurs to me that I am the sole person capable of leading this country in 2020. I accept this challenge because I must.
Joke but everyone who really runs for president, as opposed to running for president for brand enhancement, basically believes this. A bit cliche at this point, but as Kurt Vonnegut wrote:
Joke but everyone who really runs for president, as opposed to running for president for brand enhancement, basically believes this. A bit cliche at this point, but as Kurt Vonnegut wrote:
There is a tragic flaw in our precious constitution, and I don't know what can be done to fix it. This is it: Only nut cases want to be president.
Ask Him Anything
Plenty of people make this point regularly, but journalists who talk Trump should take the opportunity to just ask him to explain any basic factual matters. Like, "what is a tree?" OK, not that, but "what is Medicaid?" The point is not to prove he is a big dummy, though he is a big dummy, the point is that if he has no idea what he is talking about then nothing related that he says should be treated as being anything but gibberish. If the man thinks up is down there isn't much point trying to parse his views of gravity.
Journalists most of all should be interested in this. If you're wasting hours of your day trying to make sense of this man, you should have a better understanding of when it just isn't worth bothering. If Trump thinks Medicaid is actually a tree - possible! - then there's no point spending more time on it.
Journalists most of all should be interested in this. If you're wasting hours of your day trying to make sense of this man, you should have a better understanding of when it just isn't worth bothering. If Trump thinks Medicaid is actually a tree - possible! - then there's no point spending more time on it.
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Daily
I'm not entirely sure how this system fell apart, but back in the dark days in the early aughts, the manufactured outrage of the day was just normal politics. Cook up some bullshit, send it to Drudge (America's Assignment Editor), he hypes at 2, it's on CNN by 2:30, and Dems are falling all over themselves to condemn and/or apologize by 4. That was politics for Democrats for several years.
Whatever stupid shit is happening on Fox still dominates The Discourse, but it doesn't quite have the well-oiled machine quality it once did.
Whatever stupid shit is happening on Fox still dominates The Discourse, but it doesn't quite have the well-oiled machine quality it once did.
Acceptable Bigotries
Being openly Islamophobic is accepted and acceptable in our post-racial society.
Sure, Elon
Can't stop won't stop.
On April 22, Investor Autonomy Day, Tesla will free investors from the tyranny of having to drive their own car
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 13, 2019
Not Everybody Agrees With You, Actually
I am still reeling a bit at the apparent belief by Trumpkins that white liberals hate brown immigrants as much as they do and Owning The Libs By Sending Immigrants To Their Cities is a thing they thought up. Of course white liberals can be incredibly racist in their own ways, but general disgust and fear of immigrants is not one of them.
Friday, April 12, 2019
OK By Me
I know the idea behind the policy is horrific but like Libby I was a bit confused by the implicit assumption that unleashing immigrants on sanctuary cities was actually some kind of punishment. I get that Stephen Miller thinks this because he is a big racist who doesn't want your melanin getting anywhere near him because it might be contagious but the articles should have actually asked what the point was.
It would be great if either of the stories had pressed their sources a little more to explain exactly how these officials—led, reportedly, by Stephen Miller—thought that busing migrants to those cities would be a punishment in any way. Did Stephen think that releasing busloads of migrants in San Francisco or New York would instantly cause the city to collapse into a dystopian, crime-ridden hellscape? Did he think that they would eat all the famous New York pizza?
A premise like “busing migrants to San Francisco will punish Nancy Pelosi” is not self-explanatory. I do not immediately understand the mechanism by which releasing a tired, huddled mass of immigrants in cities with massive populations—and cities where asylum approval rates are much higher—would punish their representatives.
One Highway Lane Carries 1800 Cars Per Hour
And one subway tube can carry 20,000 people. Lord save me from people who can't look up into the sky and do basic math.
Imagine 20,000 flying cars overhead. OK we're done.
Have you ever been stuck in traffic and wished you could zoom above the gridlock in a flying car? A new study predicts these futuristic vehicles could be good for your commute and good for the environment — as long as they’re used on long-distance trips with several carpool buddies.
Imagine 20,000 flying cars overhead. OK we're done.
If I Had To Vote Today
Since everything one says is suspect until you declare your allegiance because being very online is horrible these days... I would vote for Warren.
By the time I vote (late primary) it probably won't matter and I might change my mind tomorrow. But there it is, purity people!
By the time I vote (late primary) it probably won't matter and I might change my mind tomorrow. But there it is, purity people!
Thursday, April 11, 2019
Stay Away From Teslas
This is a very common thing from online Tesla nerds.
AP is "autopilot" and you are only supposed to use it on highways. Why those HAL-9000s can't figure out they aren't on a highway is confusing to me. Drivers are crazy.
And no Tesla doesn't even use this data in this way (Sure they collect data but the cars don't "know" they failed so there's nothing abnormal to report).
AP is "autopilot" and you are only supposed to use it on highways. Why those HAL-9000s can't figure out they aren't on a highway is confusing to me. Drivers are crazy.
And no Tesla doesn't even use this data in this way (Sure they collect data but the cars don't "know" they failed so there's nothing abnormal to report).
Norms
The norms are what I say they are. The ones I like are good and the ones I don't like are bad.
Lunch Thread
I think I'm supposed to say something about Assange but I've never really had any clear opinions about all of that stuff so talk amongst yourselves. No hot take from me!
Should've Paid My Consulting Fee
Or at least read this dumb blog for free.
Gonna work on 4 square blocks in Shelbyville.
Hopefully the hype fades and I can find a new obsession and stop boring everybody. But, look, here's the basic thing:
If self-driving cars of the fantasy variety were going to work in the near future, or even be close to working, there would be a prototype by now. Not a consumer friendly device. Not a ready to scale for production device at noninsane costs. But a machine with 8 billion sensors and 4 tons of computers and whatever else was "necessary" to make it work. We'd have the coast to coast drive that Musk promised 3 years ago even if it took a $100 million decked out car to do it. And they can't do it, my friends.
Ford CEO Jim Hackett scaled back hopes about the company's plans for self-driving cars this week, admitting that the first vehicles will have limits. "We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles," said Hackett, who once headed the company's autonomous vehicle division, at a Detroit Economic Club event on Tuesday. While Ford still plans on launching its self-driving car fleet in 2021, Hackett added that "its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex."
Gonna work on 4 square blocks in Shelbyville.
Hopefully the hype fades and I can find a new obsession and stop boring everybody. But, look, here's the basic thing:
If self-driving cars of the fantasy variety were going to work in the near future, or even be close to working, there would be a prototype by now. Not a consumer friendly device. Not a ready to scale for production device at noninsane costs. But a machine with 8 billion sensors and 4 tons of computers and whatever else was "necessary" to make it work. We'd have the coast to coast drive that Musk promised 3 years ago even if it took a $100 million decked out car to do it. And they can't do it, my friends.
The Next Six Months Are Critical
Until the next six months.
Just hours after Wednesday’s meeting, EU officials had already started preparing for the possibility of yet another extension of Article 50 past October.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
There Is Always Something Better
Halloween.
Britain will remain as a member state of the EU until 31 October, with the option to leave earlier if Theresa May can secure Commons support for the Brexit deal, after a Franco-German carve-up of the UK’s future.
A marathon six-hour debate among the EU leaders concluded with the prime minister being offered a longer extension than she had sought but providing a new autumn no deal cliff-edge to focus minds in Westminster.
What Happens To My Lifestyle After I Win The Lottery
People seem to be unaware that not only do these things have to work they actually have to be cost competitive.
How does this even make sense? Now they don't need to maintain any fleet at all! Maintaining a fleet is expensive! Drivers are actually cheap! Maybe replacing labor costs with capital costs is cheaper, but not necessarily! Especially when your "labor" is gig workers.
Even the fantasy robot taxi is hardly an obvious slam drunk, and the fantasy robot taxi is not going to be with us any time soon.
Uber can get me to the airport for $45, but Lyft says it can do it for $39. For many, the only difference here is $6, even if some prefer one brand over the other. These companies say the solution to the price war is autonomous driving. Once Uber and Lyft only need to maintain fleet of driverless taxis, they won't be stuck collecting just a percentage of the fare -- they'll get the whole thing.
How does this even make sense? Now they don't need to maintain any fleet at all! Maintaining a fleet is expensive! Drivers are actually cheap! Maybe replacing labor costs with capital costs is cheaper, but not necessarily! Especially when your "labor" is gig workers.
Even the fantasy robot taxi is hardly an obvious slam drunk, and the fantasy robot taxi is not going to be with us any time soon.
Not A Jaywalker
As a million people have pointed out to this account, this pedestrian is crossing legally and therefore wouldn't be commonly called a "jaywalker."
Or, at least, not until the self-driving vehicle people start changing the laws. Amazingly a lot of these streets were built before cars even existed and while it varies by place, one does not always need a notarized court document, or even a crosswalk, to be able to walk across the street. If it was only legal to cross at pedestrian crosswalks, there wouldn't be too many places one could cross the street.
Jaywalkers are a common sight in SF. This clip shows how our technology predicts this pedestrian's trajectory, then slows to a stop in order for him to pass safely. pic.twitter.com/3D6lkXEqxs
— Zoox (@zoox) April 9, 2019
Or, at least, not until the self-driving vehicle people start changing the laws. Amazingly a lot of these streets were built before cars even existed and while it varies by place, one does not always need a notarized court document, or even a crosswalk, to be able to walk across the street. If it was only legal to cross at pedestrian crosswalks, there wouldn't be too many places one could cross the street.
Reduced Status
What's funny is that some in the UK will be horrified by this, the Brexiteers most of all. Um, guys, you want your status reduced so much you don't even get to see the table.
France is expected to demand the removal of the post of British European commissioner as a price for a long Brexit delay, leaving Britain without a seat at the top table of Brussels decision-making for the first time since 1973.
Senior EU sources say the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is likely to seek to entrench the UK’s reduced status in the EU at the leaders’ Brexit summit on Wednesday evening.
Tuesday, April 09, 2019
I'm Definitely Working On My Six Pack Abs
I used to honestly not care about Musk but he's driving me batty these days.
Sure. And meanwhile.
They'll learn eventually. Meanwhile the feature is still on! Can't see any problems with that.
I used to not worry much about the safety of these things, but I didn't anticipate a lunatic like Musk.
When asked about future potential features on Tesla’s Autopilot system, Musk said “definitely” to the idea of one that avoids potholes to increase tire life. This question from a Tesla driver came on the heels of Electrek’s Fred Lambert posing the same one to Musk hours earlier.
Sure. And meanwhile.
When MLive tested out the car maker’s system on its Model S, Tesla reps explained that its autopilot is nearly flawless on California roads, but it might take some seasoning for the electric cars to learn the bumpy, winding and seemingly always under construction Michigan roads.
They'll learn eventually. Meanwhile the feature is still on! Can't see any problems with that.
I used to not worry much about the safety of these things, but I didn't anticipate a lunatic like Musk.
An Old Person's Idea Of What The Young People Like
A weird idea is that the way to appeal to The Kids Today is to run someone who is a hep cat and hip to their young ways. This is dumb because to young people everyone over the age of 40 (30, really, if not 25) is "old" and wow, pops, it's so cool that you saw Nirvana (checks notes) 28 years ago. They play them on the oldies station now.
I know when Bill Clinton ran for president we were supposed to be impressed by how young he was, but I actually thought that was kind of creepy. He wasn't young to me. It was 1992 and he was young in the 1960s and pretending to know slightly more about contemporary pop culture than your typical grandparent just came across as silly like it does whenever any old person pretends they get The Kids Today. Gimme an actual grandpa who looks like he knows what he's doing and not someone who is dorkier than my friend's Dad.
I'm not saying 40somethings shouldn't be running for president. I'm just saying that I have no idea why people think 20somethings are going to be impressed with a 40something for being 40something.
I know when Bill Clinton ran for president we were supposed to be impressed by how young he was, but I actually thought that was kind of creepy. He wasn't young to me. It was 1992 and he was young in the 1960s and pretending to know slightly more about contemporary pop culture than your typical grandparent just came across as silly like it does whenever any old person pretends they get The Kids Today. Gimme an actual grandpa who looks like he knows what he's doing and not someone who is dorkier than my friend's Dad.
I'm not saying 40somethings shouldn't be running for president. I'm just saying that I have no idea why people think 20somethings are going to be impressed with a 40something for being 40something.
At Least He's Friendly And Charming And Generous
I get why congressional Republicans don't give a shit about Trump. He's a pain in the ass but they don't have to deal with him much, if anything he keeps the spotlight off of them, and ultimately they're getting their tax cuts and judges.
But imagine being someone like Kirstjen Nielsen. Wow he's a horrible boss, but at least I get to begin living my lifelong dream of starting an ethnic cleansing project! What motivates these people to actually work for Trump in these capacities?
But imagine being someone like Kirstjen Nielsen. Wow he's a horrible boss, but at least I get to begin living my lifelong dream of starting an ethnic cleansing project! What motivates these people to actually work for Trump in these capacities?
We Do Love Our Children
I don't have children so "what do you know" is usually the attitude from parents when I think to express opinions on the subject. Fair enough. But I am a human being (mostly) and think I was once a child or at least have some implanted memories to that effect. That people are callous and cruel is, if somewhat baffling (my moral failures usually involve inappropriate degrees of indifference), something I have come to accept as normal. Maybe we do love our children, but we sure do hate everybody else's. Still as a notparent I do not get the surprise when children are traumatized when they experience obviously traumatizing experiences. You know, the children did not recover quickly after being kidnapped from their parents and locked in cages in an environment where child rape was common and they remained somewhat sad. This was unexpected! Further research necessary.
Monday, April 08, 2019
Not Very Bright
Um don't do that.
Secret Service agent Samuel Ivanovich, who interviewed Zhang on the day of her arrest, testified at the hearing. He stated that when another agent put Zhang’s thumb-drive into his computer, it immediately began to install files, a “very out-of-the-ordinary” event that he had never seen happen before during this kind of analysis. The agent had to immediately stop the analysis to halt any further corruption of his computer, Ivanovich said. The analysis is ongoing but still inconclusive, he testified.
Brexit Madness
Most likely outcome at the moment is they delay everything for 1.5-2 more Friedmans and the nightmare continues.
Or a no deal Brexit on Friday!!! Gotta make my mind up.
Or a no deal Brexit on Friday!!! Gotta make my mind up.
On Safety
All of the Trolley Problem wankery about self-driving cars was always hilarious. How will we program their ethics??? As if this would be a priority or if actual human drivers ever encounter these trolley problem decisions in any meaningful way. In a split second you do what you do and there is not going to be much philosophical musing about who is better to kill.
Stay away from Teslas, because Musk is a carnival barker lunatic who is trying to convince people that his slaughterpilot driver assist features mean you can drive around with your hands off the wheels even as Tesla Legal is, of course, screaming NO NO NO KEEP YOUR HANDS ON THE WHEELS I mean, seriously, stay away from them. If you see a Tesla on the road get way from it. But otherwise I don't really worry about "actual" self-driving cars being safe. If they work they'll be safe enough, even if I don't buy the "safer than human drivers" crap.
But trolley problem nonsense aside, what will safety mean? If you're a car company, safety means prioritizing:
1) minimizing legal liability
2) minimizing popular perception that they are unsafe (enhancing perception that they are safe)
3) keeping the drivers of your own cars alive (related to 2), but not precisely the same)
...
999) actual safety
In practice what this means it that the cars will be safe enough for the drivers, but might drive in such away as to diminish the safety of people around them. What is legal is not always safe, and what maximizes my safety might not be best for you.
The simplest example is that slamming on the brakes is almost always without liability, and it's probably generally better to be hit from behind than to slam into something in front of you. But slamming on the brakes can cause problems for people around you (they hit you, they swerve to avoid and hit someone else, etc.). Technically "safe," but havoc causing nonetheless.
Stay away from Teslas, because Musk is a carnival barker lunatic who is trying to convince people that his slaughterpilot driver assist features mean you can drive around with your hands off the wheels even as Tesla Legal is, of course, screaming NO NO NO KEEP YOUR HANDS ON THE WHEELS I mean, seriously, stay away from them. If you see a Tesla on the road get way from it. But otherwise I don't really worry about "actual" self-driving cars being safe. If they work they'll be safe enough, even if I don't buy the "safer than human drivers" crap.
But trolley problem nonsense aside, what will safety mean? If you're a car company, safety means prioritizing:
1) minimizing legal liability
2) minimizing popular perception that they are unsafe (enhancing perception that they are safe)
3) keeping the drivers of your own cars alive (related to 2), but not precisely the same)
...
999) actual safety
In practice what this means it that the cars will be safe enough for the drivers, but might drive in such away as to diminish the safety of people around them. What is legal is not always safe, and what maximizes my safety might not be best for you.
The simplest example is that slamming on the brakes is almost always without liability, and it's probably generally better to be hit from behind than to slam into something in front of you. But slamming on the brakes can cause problems for people around you (they hit you, they swerve to avoid and hit someone else, etc.). Technically "safe," but havoc causing nonetheless.
Sure, Elon
Aside from my general "this technology will not work in the foreseeable future" view and my more my specific "haha Elon is so full of shit about Tesla's capabilities," the idea that a bunch of Tesla owners, the type of people who detail their cars weekly, are going to want to let numerous strangers track mud and dirt in and out of their cars all the time, is hilarious. To be clear, many Tesla owners believe this because they are just nerds who think everyone should enjoy their hobby, but like all nerds who enjoy their hobby they get pretty mad if someone disturbs their record collection, or whatever it is.
(narrator: no they don't.)
As I say with automated buses: who is going to help get the wheelchair passenger on the bus? With these cars, who is going to help put granny's suitcase in the trunk when she wants a ride to the airport?
People who fantasize about automated buses (which while more technologically feasible still have serious implementation problems) have never taken a bus, and people who fantasize about robot taxis have never taken a taxi. Or at least not regularly.
Elon Musk says Tesla vehicles one day make money for their owners by autonomously transporting people when their owners are not using them — like a driverless Uber or Lyft ride.
Teslas already have the hardware they would need built in.
(narrator: no they don't.)
As I say with automated buses: who is going to help get the wheelchair passenger on the bus? With these cars, who is going to help put granny's suitcase in the trunk when she wants a ride to the airport?
People who fantasize about automated buses (which while more technologically feasible still have serious implementation problems) have never taken a bus, and people who fantasize about robot taxis have never taken a taxi. Or at least not regularly.
SNAFU
For awhile during the earlier days of the Trump administration, especially, people would say things like "oh wow these people are all going to be unemployable" haha have you seen Washington?
Not Tough Enough For Trump
We all know Kristjen Nielsen was more than a willing accomplice in, and extreme liar about, Trump's baby cage program. That she made Trump mad by not willing to just start bombing the baby cage camps or whatever the point of contention was is a narrative which serves them both. Really I tried to stop it, she cries! And, yes, especially because she is a woman (this was part of her job, PR wise) this is a narrative many will be eager to believe, and soon she will be getting job offers and cable news gigs and Harvard Fellowships and whatever else because that's how America works. Fuck yeah.
Sure Close The El Paso Border
It's the kind of "crazy" thing Trump wants to do that isn't crazy like nuking a random city or machine gunning babies. Not that it would be victimless, of course, but it would be costly and cause immense amount of problems and cause some more Very Serious People to respond.
No I'm not advocating making things worse to make them better, but if Trump is going to do something crazy and horrible that'd be a pretty funny one.
No I'm not advocating making things worse to make them better, but if Trump is going to do something crazy and horrible that'd be a pretty funny one.
Sunday, April 07, 2019
Impossible Requests
According to Take Japper/CNN, Trump was "making unreasonable and even impossible requests" about the border issues.
Defying physics impossible?
Defying physics impossible?
And She's Gone
And the brief moment of satisfaction is quickly gone with the realization that someone worse is inevitably next.
Gonna have her own CNN show within a week.
JUST IN: Two US officials tell @CBSNews DHS Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen meeting with President Trump at 5pm, expected to resign.
— Paula Reid (@PaulaReidCBS) April 7, 2019
Gonna have her own CNN show within a week.
The Pigfucker Whisperers
The problem with the concept of "coastal elites" is that they are basically a certain segment of elites who happen to work in media/politics on the coasts, and by coasts we mean NYC and DC, who narrate this concept of "coastal elites" as if they were talking about people other than themselves.
My whole time "in" politics centrist goobers have been talking about cracking the code to speak in the mysterious languages spoken by people not in their social circles. The Real American has taken various forms in this popular conception, though I will say in the past this mythic creature seemed to bear some relationship to actual people, while the media's creation of The Trump Voter or the (white) Working Class in this latest chapter of their novel seems to be almost wholly fiction. Not that Trump voters don't exist - they obviously do - they just aren't recognizable in any of the portraits painted of them by the Art School graduates at the New York Times.
If you're thinking about how "we" need to talk to "them" then you've already lost this particular struggle, and coastal elites who imagine we can send an ambassador from Harvard because he picked up some pigfucker at some point in his life and he can use his language to talk to the natives of that strange land known as Real America are as dumb as, well, Will Saletan. Who is always dumb.
Also, too, mayor of a college town is not the same as the governor of the state, and Julian Castro is running for president and was the executive of a rather large red state city. Slipped Will's mind.
My whole time "in" politics centrist goobers have been talking about cracking the code to speak in the mysterious languages spoken by people not in their social circles. The Real American has taken various forms in this popular conception, though I will say in the past this mythic creature seemed to bear some relationship to actual people, while the media's creation of The Trump Voter or the (white) Working Class in this latest chapter of their novel seems to be almost wholly fiction. Not that Trump voters don't exist - they obviously do - they just aren't recognizable in any of the portraits painted of them by the Art School graduates at the New York Times.
If you're thinking about how "we" need to talk to "them" then you've already lost this particular struggle, and coastal elites who imagine we can send an ambassador from Harvard because he picked up some pigfucker at some point in his life and he can use his language to talk to the natives of that strange land known as Real America are as dumb as, well, Will Saletan. Who is always dumb.
Buttigieg is the only red-state executive running for president. He understands how to talk to the rest of America.
— Will Saletan (@saletan) April 5, 2019
The last time Democrats nominated a candidate like that was 1992. And he took down the Republican incumbent.
Also, too, mayor of a college town is not the same as the governor of the state, and Julian Castro is running for president and was the executive of a rather large red state city. Slipped Will's mind.
Little England
These things are complicated, but Brexit was basically driven by old people with a desire to return to their imagined past. How, precisely, Brexit even in some ideal form would do that is never quite specified, but the Brexiteers channeled that longing into that referendum and here we are.
Also, Trump.
Also, Trump.
Saturday, April 06, 2019
Truly Never Worked A Day In Their Lives
Conservatives love deriding AOC as a former bartender. I didn't grow up poor or in a poor area, but "everybody" did some relatively "menial" jobs in high school or college or soon after. It was normal. Depending on where you were on the income scale and the relative generosity of your parents, maybe you did it out of necessity or maybe you did it for extra fun money or maybe you did it because your parents decided it was "good for you." But it was normal. Everybody was eventually a former service worker.
These people are really telling on themselves.
These people are really telling on themselves.
Friday, April 05, 2019
Always The French
Not that I blame them.
France has reiterated its opposition to Britain being granted any further Brexit extension if it does not have a concrete plan with clear support in the Commons, saying that without that Britain must be deemed to have chosen to leave the EU without a deal.
Joe the Biden
It's early and I'm honestly trying to keep an open mind but I can't with this guy. VP was your great 2nd (or 3rd) act, Joe. Just revel in it and move on.
This isn't self-deprecation, it's fake self-deprecation aimed at minimizing the actual accusations (and videos). You can think that's all bullshit if you want, but it's a dick thing for Joe to pretend he doesn't think it's all bullshit then mock the whole thing while pretending to mock himself.
Just 19 more months of this, folks: https://t.co/UpH7SG4aan
— Alec MacGillis (@AlecMacGillis) April 5, 2019
This isn't self-deprecation, it's fake self-deprecation aimed at minimizing the actual accusations (and videos). You can think that's all bullshit if you want, but it's a dick thing for Joe to pretend he doesn't think it's all bullshit then mock the whole thing while pretending to mock himself.
Life Shouldn't Be So Hard
JUST IN: Gordon Caplan, former co-chairman of New York law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher, becomes second parent to agree to plead guilty in U.S. college admissions scandal pic.twitter.com/Jn2mc7MtgY
— Reuters U.S. News (@ReutersUS) April 5, 2019
One way to look at this stuff is he didn't mind writing the check because he's got plenty of $. But he still had to worry about this. It still had to occupy his brainspace. I assume it was a more complicated transaction than buying a BMW.
Not feeling sympathy. Just... "who cares, Caplan Jr., just go to CUNY and have a blast" should be ok.
The super-rich...they're just like us! Only richer.
Cheating Rich People
At some level I just think it's funny rich people cheat their way into exclusive schools because the whole process has nothing to do with "meritocracy" and all you have to say is "legacy students, QED." Let some other people in the university rake in some of the cash.
But of course the popular myth of American elite universities is that they are filled with "undeserving" black students filling up the 60-80% of spots reserved for affirmative action. Which is hilarious if you've ever walked around on one of these elite campuses, or noticed that the same 3 black students miraculously appear on every page of their websites. The campuses are filled with failsons.
But of course the popular myth of American elite universities is that they are filled with "undeserving" black students filling up the 60-80% of spots reserved for affirmative action. Which is hilarious if you've ever walked around on one of these elite campuses, or noticed that the same 3 black students miraculously appear on every page of their websites. The campuses are filled with failsons.
Thursday, April 04, 2019
Or What If
The people can't be represented by one chair, but many, and in fact that's what the politicians are supposed to be, if imperfectly... just contemplating democracy, coffee man.
Howard Schultz's plan for immigration is to put an empty chair in a room and tell politicians the chair represents the American people pic.twitter.com/V6xSVzkOJC
— Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) April 4, 2019
Both Sides
There's a subtlety of the "both sides" joke that most people miss, which is that it's only when Republicans are caught being naughty, or extreme, or whatever, that there's a need to say, "Actually, both sides...".
In other words, "both sides" is very one-sided.
Whoa.
In other words, "both sides" is very one-sided.
Whoa.
Socialism
We all take life as given to some degree. What we're used to is "normal" and different things are, well, different. What the state does and does not do as a matter of course our whole lives seems obvious, and what the state does in other countries seems strange or even the dreaded socialism.
Other countries have socialized health care, parental leave or housing, Jeffrey Tumlin, a transportation consultant at Nelson\Nygaard, pointed out. In America, we’ve socialized driving — and housing for our cars.
“We don’t let people put their self-storage containers in public parks, but it’s just fine to store their cars on other public land for free,” Mr. Tumlin wrote in an email.
Agenda Setting
Without getting into the particulars - because to some degree they aren't even what's important - the power of the New York Times is on display here. When they publish something which basically says "Mueller Barr exonerates Trump!!!" "everyone" agrees this is true even though it was transparently false because even Barr, a known corrupt man with a history of covering up for presidents, couldn't even manage to say that. It was total bullshit and you didn't need the follow up "whoa, hold on, maybe not" to know that. The first article is a big deal and sets the narrative. The second article is a big deal and also sets the narrative. Because people are dumb or choose to be and authoritative news sources still determine "truth" based on obvious spin.
Wednesday, April 03, 2019
May's Way Or The Motorway
New: Senior Labour source telling me today's talks did not go as well as initially thought:
— Anna Mikhailova (@AVMikhailova) April 3, 2019
'May offered nothing today. Unless tomorrow's talks change the narrative it seems to be a waste of time.'
How Long Before
We get the "oh, well, of course everyone in the press knew that Trump's mental capacity was declining... we just didn't think it was our place to say so" comments from the press after Trump is out of office.
Turnstile Jumping
There is no logical reason "stealing" $2.50 in subway fare should be treated differently than "stealing" $2.50 in parking by not feeding the meter, but it has been and fortunately now that is mostly changing.
"Very Likely"
Not that I can know, but there's almost no chance the Tories adequately prepared for a "no deal Brexit," based on the difficulties of doing that, the sidelining of the Civil Service throughout, and their general magical thinking. Gotta bring in a lot of food regularly to feed a country of 66 million people that imports 50% of its food, especially given perishability and just in time (no) inventory systems.
Juncker:
And while food is a somewhat pressing issue, it is just one of numerous...
Juncker:
I believe that a “no deal” at midnight on the 12 April is now a very likely scenario. It is not the outcome I want. But it is an outcome for which I have made sure the European Union is ready.
And while food is a somewhat pressing issue, it is just one of numerous...
F.U.
I was going to pick through Friedman's Brexit column, but then I just gave up because every sentence is basically wrong and I decided that Tom Freidman's influence on Brexit has about as my influence as my blog does on Tom Friedman or his editors, so why bother.
Technology Will Save Us
I'm a bit of a skeptic about technological advances (both that they will happen and their promised utility) and of course I get that wrong sometimes. I am no sage. Predictions are hard, blah blah blah.
But in going down the wormhole of things like hyperloop/self-driving cars, I am just astonished at how there's basically a Friedman Unit to this stuff - gonna be a real breakthrough in 6 months! - and there are true believers who buy it every time.
Some of this is the weird cult of Musk which is as disturbing as QAnon in some ways, but it's also just a general credulousness about the pace of technological innovation. And car production and massive public works projects (I'm just using Musk as an example), even if the technology exists, aren't like a new app. You don't just roll them out in 3 months. Achieving scale and cost efficiencies for producing new real stuff takes time, even if a better restaurant delivery app does't.
But in going down the wormhole of things like hyperloop/self-driving cars, I am just astonished at how there's basically a Friedman Unit to this stuff - gonna be a real breakthrough in 6 months! - and there are true believers who buy it every time.
Some of this is the weird cult of Musk which is as disturbing as QAnon in some ways, but it's also just a general credulousness about the pace of technological innovation. And car production and massive public works projects (I'm just using Musk as an example), even if the technology exists, aren't like a new app. You don't just roll them out in 3 months. Achieving scale and cost efficiencies for producing new real stuff takes time, even if a better restaurant delivery app does't.
Tuesday, April 02, 2019
I Do Not Think That's What Bipartisan Is
Say "we gambled, and lost, and then we were stuck." Or "actually, this is what we had to do to please Max Baucus anyway." But not "this was good because the imaginary Republicans from the West Wing that we were negotiating with were very pleased." Valerie Jarrett:
What was it that you could have pushed through from the beginning?
It...was...not...bipartisan.
I'm not one who thinks being bipartisan should be a goal in itself, but there are some arguments for why making something actually bipartisan has value, even if, again, I'm one who thinks those arguments are weak. But "we made it shittier to please Alan Alda on the West Wing and we're happy about that" is worse than stupid.
What was it that you could have pushed through from the beginning?
We could have pushed through a plan that didn’t have all of these amendments. There were [almost] two hundred of them, all of which I have put firmly out of my mind, but, for example, we really had hoped that Olympia Snowe would come on board, and we worked with her. We worked with several of the Republicans to say, O.K., what is it that you need in order to support this? Keep in mind it was modelled after the Massachusetts health-care bill that Governor Romney had endorsed, so we started out with a compromise. We didn’t start out with a public option or single-payer.
Then we said to them, “O.K., well, if that doesn’t make you feel comfortable, what would?” We spent months. Had we known that there was nothing that we could do that would persuade them to come on board, we still would have felt like we had to try, because it’s important that the American people see us trying to do that. I think we would have employed the same strategy. If I’d known that there was nothing we could do, I still think we would have thought, Well, let’s just make absolutely sure, because it’s a lot better if it’s bipartisan.
It...was...not...bipartisan.
I'm not one who thinks being bipartisan should be a goal in itself, but there are some arguments for why making something actually bipartisan has value, even if, again, I'm one who thinks those arguments are weak. But "we made it shittier to please Alan Alda on the West Wing and we're happy about that" is worse than stupid.
Stock Up On Food
NEW: Told Letwin et al have no plans for Indicative Votes on Weds. Instead trying to pave way for Cooper bill to be laid on Thurs to legislate against No Deal & mandate govt to put forward proposal. But mood grim. MP tells me Letwin is now “90% sure we’ll drop out with No Deal”
— Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) April 2, 2019
Translation: one of the main Tories who was willing to defy May to try to make something better happen has almost entirely given up and says the apocalypse is probably coming.
Brexit Chaos
I know quite a lot about UK politics but it's reached a level such that I can't follow the threads at all.
Monday, April 01, 2019
WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
European parliament's lead Brexit spokesman says no-deal Brexit 'nearly inevitable' - https://t.co/ajIg6kiWOg
— AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) April 1, 2019
That Thing You Want Does Not Exist
Waiting for the Brexit vote results but this is important, generally.
Something more along those lines might (might!) have been possible once upon a time, but the Brexiteers preferred being assholes who didn't have a clue what they were doing instead of trying to figure out how whatever is they wanted could actually be achieved. They could have started managing a no deal months and months and months ago. And now the EU is done with them.
As for No Brexit preparations, spoke to a friend in the UK who is going on a little family trip to France soon and post April 12, when they will still be there, if a no deal Brexit happens, their UK driving licenses will no longer be valid. No big deal, just go down to the post office and get the forms for the international licenses. Which they didn't have.
In the light of the Tory Brexiter Andrew Bridgen saying this evening most Tories members want a “managed no-deal” (see 8.34pm), it is worth pointing out that the European commission said on Friday that such a thing was not on offer.
Something more along those lines might (might!) have been possible once upon a time, but the Brexiteers preferred being assholes who didn't have a clue what they were doing instead of trying to figure out how whatever is they wanted could actually be achieved. They could have started managing a no deal months and months and months ago. And now the EU is done with them.
As for No Brexit preparations, spoke to a friend in the UK who is going on a little family trip to France soon and post April 12, when they will still be there, if a no deal Brexit happens, their UK driving licenses will no longer be valid. No big deal, just go down to the post office and get the forms for the international licenses. Which they didn't have.
Common Market 2.0
I don't really see the point of the "like Norway" option other than it's better than every Brexit option, but good that Labour is whipping it.
What will pass? Will May just ignore them all (I don't really understand the procedures in Parliament but these are advisory votes from what I understand, like Congress telling Trump, "please.")
What will pass? Will May just ignore them all (I don't really understand the procedures in Parliament but these are advisory votes from what I understand, like Congress telling Trump, "please.")
People Are Unfair And Mean To My Favorite Candidate
I'm one who thinks a competitive primary is good and necessary and even though now people yell at strangers on the internet more, it isn't as if the campaigns themselves are particular combative relative to the past. Sure it's reasonable to expect some level of comity and niceness from the candidates and it's fair to get mad at them if they don't achieve that, but reasonably fairly highlighting the clear public records of your competitors seems to be, well, a fair thing to do. Also it's more transparent if they do it themselves rather than "drop oppo" on members of the press who then launder it for the public.
But candidates and other people with reasonably large microphones aside, there isn't much point in telling people on the internet to be nicer. Maybe it would be better if they were, but yelling "stop being so divisive!!!" at strangers isn't going to achieve it. Have you seen the internet?
But candidates and other people with reasonably large microphones aside, there isn't much point in telling people on the internet to be nicer. Maybe it would be better if they were, but yelling "stop being so divisive!!!" at strangers isn't going to achieve it. Have you seen the internet?
OK A Decent April Fools'
From the LA Times.
The bright lights of New York City beckon to the restless and the hungry. In the city that never sleeps, as they say, the marquees of Times Square nearly make one forget the concrete dystopia of what is seemingly an unlivable urban wasteland. Surrounded by rats, black trash bags and graffiti-tagged storefronts on Broadway Street, New York’s primary thoroughfare, I wondered aloud if I would be able to find a decent meal in what was surely a culinary heart of darkness.
In Los Angeles, we’re spoiled by the breadth and quality of our dining options. In addition to outstanding year-round produce, I can get great huaraches, refreshing mul naengmyeon and impeccable chả giò within 15 minutes of where I live. But what about New York, a largely culturally bereft island that sits curiously between the Hudson and East Rivers at the foot of the Catskill Mountains? Sure, we’ve all heard of hot dogs, a staple of every New Yorker’s diet, famously gnawed on by rodent and human alike in that “toddling town.”
Details
People forget but this part of Brexit is really just the first step...whatever it is.
While a customs union takes care of some things, there are a billion other things that would have to be negotiated by the end of 2020 and the EU is probably not in the best mood these days.
Britain could be out of the EU by 22 May if the Commons backs a customs union in Monday night’s indicative votes, according to officials close to the Brexit negotiations in Brussels.
While a customs union takes care of some things, there are a billion other things that would have to be negotiated by the end of 2020 and the EU is probably not in the best mood these days.
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