Rock on.
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Feisty For The Inqy
Good.
Soon, the Philadelphia Police Department will testify in front of Council for their budget hearing. At a time when other departments and programs are being decimated or terminated, the police are proposing a budget increase of nearly $14 million.
Commissioner Danielle Outlaw and the Mayor will need to justify the increase, not just against the fiscal crisis, but against the backdrop of the police department’s community crisis. Taxpayers can not continue to fund the police’s continuation of a status quo based on racism.
The statue of Frank Rizzo is perhaps the most blatant symbol of this city’s brutal police past. Protestors tried to topple the statue over the weekend, and ended up defacing it.
It was one of the first things cleaned up on Sunday morning.
Saturday, May 30, 2020
PRESS FREEDUM
Whatever you think of the propriety or importance of Fox Newsers getting harassed, are these journalists fucking stupid or fucking liars to frame it as FIRST AMENDMENT PRESS FREEDUM ISSUE.
Setting aside off-point first amendment references, it's instructive to imagine MSM journalists covering their own interests the way they cover others'.
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) May 30, 2020
"Reporters at the scene said protesters intimidated them, but protesters questioned whether they were journalists at all." pic.twitter.com/ORUJPjIoQ0
Give The Man What He Wants
No I don't really mean that, but...
Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump called Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper on Friday and insisted on a full Republican convention this summer with no face masks or social distancing, according to a spokesperson for the governor.
Actually Relevant
I failed to honor an important anniversary yesterday. It was Suck On This Day! 17 years and one day ago, adviser to kings and presidents, and the smartest man in America, Tom Friedman, gave us this.
I think it [the invasion of Iraq] was unquestionably worth doing, Charlie.
...
We needed to go over there, basically, um, and um, uh, take out a very big stick right in the heart of that world and burst that bubble, and there was only one way to do it.
...
What they needed to see was American boys and girls going house to house, from Basra to Baghdad, um and basically saying, "Which part of this sentence don't you understand?"
You don't think, you know, we care about our open society, you think this bubble fantasy, we're just gonna let it grow?
Well Suck. On. This.
Okay.
That Charlie was what this war was about. We could've hit Saudi Arabia, it was part of that bubble. We coulda hit Pakistan. We hit Iraq because we could. That's the real truth.
What If I Just Shut Up
As a blogger, influencer, and Thought Leader, there are times when it's best to avoid contributing to the noise. The temptation is to try to piece together narratives from a mishmash of uncomfirmed and partial reports, but a man at his computer is not actually the Eye of God. Some shit is happening, it's bad and depressing, and I'm not sure what to add to that.
Democratic Mayors
They're all so bad or so cowed by the cops that none of them can even say, in the middle of a respiratory illness pandemic, "no fucking tear gas."
Friday, May 29, 2020
Arrest
Never expect much actual justice in these situations, but each step in that direction feels like a big victory.
can't even be bothered to parse the language gymnastics journalists go through to avoid describing what actually happened
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — The Minneapolis officer who was seen on video kneeling on the neck of George Floyd, a handcuffed black man who died in custody after pleading that he could not breathe, was arrested Friday.
can't even be bothered to parse the language gymnastics journalists go through to avoid describing what actually happened
Lies
Amy Klobuchar says it is "absolutely false” that she declined to prosecute the officer at the center of Floyd’s death for a 2006 police shooting. "It is a lie,” she says, noting the case went to a grand jury when she left her Hennepin County office.
— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) May 29, 2020
Minnesota grand juries, how the fuck do they work, MPR?
But it's important to keep in mind that there's no legal imperative to bring a fatal police shooting case to a grand jury — it's a prosecutor's choice, and there are lots of reasons a prosecutor might decide to do so.
A prosecutor might toss a case to a grand jury, for instance, for political cover, said Brad Colbert, a professor at the Mitchell Hamline School of Law. "Then the prosecutor doesn't have to a say 'I charged it or I didn't charge it,' but rather sent a case to a jury of peers."
What's The Master Media Manipulator Going To Do Today
He tweets and "everybody" prints it on the front pages of the newspapers they work for. How does he do this?
Wow Cops Lie?!?!?
Hopefully (doubtfully) this leaves a lasting impression on our media outlets.
For those just coming in, the MSP arrested a black reporter and crew for CNN knowing full well they were with CNN, after not doing similar for a white reporter, and they were freed after the head of CNN called the governor, which is the kind of advocate we all have.
Maybe some other people were arrested for no reason? UNPOSSIBLE!!!
You can compare this statement with the live footage of this arrest https://t.co/AhpmiPfcIH
— Abby D. Phillip (@abbydphillip) May 29, 2020
For those just coming in, the MSP arrested a black reporter and crew for CNN knowing full well they were with CNN, after not doing similar for a white reporter, and they were freed after the head of CNN called the governor, which is the kind of advocate we all have.
Maybe some other people were arrested for no reason? UNPOSSIBLE!!!
Thursday, May 28, 2020
The Master Media Manipulator Tricked You Again
New York Times reporter observes the wallet inspector failed to return her wallet yet again.
So, to recap: Today the president got everyone to focus on “section 230 of the communications decency act” with 100,000 dead and 40 million out of work.
— Katie Rogers (@katierogers) May 28, 2020
The Great Shirk
Even if you were someone who believed - and trust me, even most of the "good guys" believed this - that the financial crisis was caused by poor defenseless banks being conned by tens of millions of borrowers who couldn't afford to take out those mortgages, it didn't follow that the resulting recession and unemployment which impacted a lot of other people were the fault of those other people. Still unemployment went from fuemployment (lazy people enjoying their vacations!) to a "skills gap" (stupid people getting the wrong education) to a "worker mobility problem" (lazy people unwilling to move to where the jobs where) to, finally, a period of people just preferring to play video games over work.
This will happen again.
This will happen again.
Gotta Mock Them
We're going to move from rosy predictions about the future, to denial about the reality, to a collective "wellwhatchagonnado," to "Actually, the natural rate of unemployment is 17%."
Unemployment levels were seen as insanely high at the beginning of the Great Recession. And then they barely dropped. And then they weren't seen as insane at all anymore. And then they weren't seen as a problem at all. 10% unemployment is going to look hilariously minor compared to what we have now.
Unemployment levels were seen as insanely high at the beginning of the Great Recession. And then they barely dropped. And then they weren't seen as insane at all anymore. And then they weren't seen as a problem at all. 10% unemployment is going to look hilariously minor compared to what we have now.
They Shape Of Things To Come
My prediction! That's the unemployment rate against time. Invert it for jobs over time. Not a V!
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
2.1 million new lucky duckies. Wow that's a 14% drop from last week! Best economic news we've *ever* seen!!!
The Best People
RESIGN: Today we learned that House Speaker @MikeTurzai has known that Republican Members have either tested positive, or been quarantined, and withheld this information from Democrats including those of us who serve on the committees with those members!
— Brian Sims (@BrianSimsPA) May 27, 2020
Sims is my rep.
Read the whole thread as the kids say.... There's more to the story, but also PA Republicans have been leading the psychopathic bellow about needing to open up and kill everyone caucus.
How local media covers things because facts don't exist anymore.
PA GOP: *Covers up COVID-19 diagnosis*
— Brett Banditelli 🚫✂️ (@banditelli) May 28, 2020
Media: PA Democrats ACCUSE GOP of covering up COVID-19 diagnosis pic.twitter.com/ju2OtlzM6r
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Just Give People Money
So always trying to target things to supposedly worthy people just adds unnecessary complexity, leaves "deserving" people out, and makes everyone mad because their neighbor is getting more than they are? Wow who knew.
Several essential workers have told me they didn’t feel entitled to hazard pay until they saw the unemployed receiving a $600 federal subsidy. Pretty sure they would be apoplectic over a return-to-work subsidy without hazard pay https://t.co/FmekKPvHXo
— Dave Jamieson (@jamieson) May 27, 2020
I Am Dumb
But I think life is going to get a lot worse for a lot of people and credibly running on improving that might make some sense.
Can't Wait For The Henry Kissinger Obit
How does anybody give this newspaper money.
Oh fuck you @nytimes fuuuuck yooooou #ripLarryKramer pic.twitter.com/sdGk9ufzOf
— Roy Edroso (@edroso) May 27, 2020
Don't They Get Tired
The obsessive focus on Trump's biggest fans as being the only voters who matter has always been ridiculous, especially as once you stop being a Trump fan you are no longer part of the set who matters. Trump could have one fan left in the country and 1200 reporters would follow him around, reporting on the Trump Voter.
But longtime readers remember that the previous Worst Preznit Ever, the guy people remember fondly now, actually did see his approval rating sink into the 20s.
But longtime readers remember that the previous Worst Preznit Ever, the guy people remember fondly now, actually did see his approval rating sink into the 20s.
Empty Wallet
We're going to get the best economic news we've ever had soon.
At least they'll get to fire some teachers. That's what happened last time!
That’s because the fiscal year for many states begins on July 1, and budgets must be adopted between now and then. California has a June 15 deadline for how to fill its giant budget hole, which could be as much as $54 billion. Other states scheduled to adopt a budget within this period include Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Vermont, and Wisconsin."Austerity" is inevitable because the people must suffer, and that's going be true whether Mitch McConnell decides to break the country through action or the Democrats decide to break it through inaction.
At least they'll get to fire some teachers. That's what happened last time!
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
The Best And The Brightest
I don't want to discount the obvious aspects of nepotism and pure corruption, but when you read stories about how when Jared needs to learn something he like googles it and then calls his friends, and when an emergency requires expert people to, say, distribute lifesaving equipment, he also calls his friends, it's in part because he honestly believes that he and his friends are the smartest and best people in existence, and therefore the best people to accomplish any task. I'm not sure who he thinks writes the wikipedia pages where he learns most things that he thinks he knows, but one learns not to question the gifts that others are perpetually bestowing on us. The universe just works that way, to our benefit, and not everybody is smart enough to read AND understand the holy tablets of knowledge on the internet put there just for Jared.
I used to think elites, however defined, thought they were better than us in some kind of abstract noble bloodline sense. They didn't have to be more beautiful or smarter, because they were just better in a way that didn't even need to be defined. Our betters are just better, you see? Advanced formal dinner party cutlery skills were knowledge enough, and if they needed an expert they would call one, whose job it was to serve them.
But now I see that they truly believe they are all supergeniuses, and that other people must be inferior in all ways. The good families are the smartest and the people who go to school near Boston are the smartest, except for any African-Americans who snuck in the door, of course. It's a weird merger of nobility and educational meritocracy. They don't even need to win the rigged meritocracy game, but they do, because it's rigged, and that they can rig it is just proof yet again of their superiority.
Not many people know this - whatever "this" is - but Donald and Jared do.
I used to think elites, however defined, thought they were better than us in some kind of abstract noble bloodline sense. They didn't have to be more beautiful or smarter, because they were just better in a way that didn't even need to be defined. Our betters are just better, you see? Advanced formal dinner party cutlery skills were knowledge enough, and if they needed an expert they would call one, whose job it was to serve them.
But now I see that they truly believe they are all supergeniuses, and that other people must be inferior in all ways. The good families are the smartest and the people who go to school near Boston are the smartest, except for any African-Americans who snuck in the door, of course. It's a weird merger of nobility and educational meritocracy. They don't even need to win the rigged meritocracy game, but they do, because it's rigged, and that they can rig it is just proof yet again of their superiority.
Not many people know this - whatever "this" is - but Donald and Jared do.
I Have Been Wrong Before
Once or twice. Maybe. But the belief that we're going to turn the machines back on and just go back to "normal" is insane to me. The belief seems to be that a lot of jobs that were axed/furloughed during the lockdown will just return. Flip on the lights. We're back!
That won't happen nearly as fast as people think, but even if it does the secondary impacts are going to be massive. State and local public job losses alone will be significant, even if Congress provides some direct aid. And those are jobs with benefits, etc. A lot of people aren't going to be able to keep their health insurance even if they like it, because it was attached to the good government job that no longer exists. Trying to find a new job in a shitty job market is, well, not so fun, folks!
"They" couldn't fix the Great Recession in a speedy fashion, and that was easy. The current "they" is worse. Widespread cannibalism is more likely than good feelings about the economy in October, in my stupid blogger opinion.
That won't happen nearly as fast as people think, but even if it does the secondary impacts are going to be massive. State and local public job losses alone will be significant, even if Congress provides some direct aid. And those are jobs with benefits, etc. A lot of people aren't going to be able to keep their health insurance even if they like it, because it was attached to the good government job that no longer exists. Trying to find a new job in a shitty job market is, well, not so fun, folks!
"They" couldn't fix the Great Recession in a speedy fashion, and that was easy. The current "they" is worse. Widespread cannibalism is more likely than good feelings about the economy in October, in my stupid blogger opinion.
THE FIRST DERIVATIVE IS GONNA BE SO POSITIVE
Frequently reminded that Obama's economic brain geniuses were not.
Explains why they kept saying "green shoots" for the shitty Great Recession recovery.
Furman, tapped to give the opening presentation, looked into his screen of poorly lit boxes of frightened wonks and made a startling claim.I highly doubt what he's talking about will even come to pass, but even if you get UNEMPLOYMENT SHRINKS FROM 20% TO 12%... reality will not be good.
“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” he said.
Explains why they kept saying "green shoots" for the shitty Great Recession recovery.
The Best People
One maddening thing about Democratic politics is that the worst fucking people in the world won't just go away.
Rahm Emanuel is having regular conversations with presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and his top advisers about economic policy, the selection of a running mate and the political machinations of taking on President Donald Trump.
Monday, May 25, 2020
What's Funnier
Trump wishing us all a "happy Memorial Day" or Trump wishing us all a "happy Good Friday."
I guess we gotta laugh sometimes.
I guess we gotta laugh sometimes.
Happy Hour
Busy with the 200 people who came over for my annual kegger. No hoax virus is gonna stop this party!
Serious Question
I know some people get annoyed because I criticize the good guys a bit too much. Sometimes I have good explanations for their behavior even if I disagree.
But Jared went around the country literally stealing PPE shipments, giving it to his friends, and letting them sell it for a big profit. I bet most of the country is not even aware of this.
Why are they not on teevee, or even the twitter, talking about this constantly?
But Jared went around the country literally stealing PPE shipments, giving it to his friends, and letting them sell it for a big profit. I bet most of the country is not even aware of this.
Why are they not on teevee, or even the twitter, talking about this constantly?
Lunch Thread
Gotta run off the Covid weight gain. Hasn't been much to do but buy food, cook food, eat food.
Waiting And Seeing
In the inbetween phase, seeing whether the "opening up" will be catastrophic - locally or nationally - or whether any explosions will be hyperlocal and contained.
As a Thought Leader and Influencer in these times, I don't have much more to say other than, "could get better...I suspect it will get worse."
As a Thought Leader and Influencer in these times, I don't have much more to say other than, "could get better...I suspect it will get worse."
Sunday, May 24, 2020
SHAME
I don't like the genre of shaming individuals or the participants in random crowd shots for their behavior. I don't mean MAGA idiots who are doing the pandemic version of rolling coal and deliberately being assholes to retail workers asking them wear masks or similar. Go ahead and shame them. But otherwise the problem is with the people who lead us. Trump. His people. Bad governors. Poor media outlets. Even the "good" advice during all of this hasn't been consistent, and this is mostly a collective problem. Getting mad at someone for not wearing a mask outside isn't really getting mad at the right thing, especially if there aren't any clear rules/guidelines about mask wearing or even a way for people to easily obtain masks.
It sucks, of course, but you can't really expect people to be better than their leaders and, well, have you seen our leaders lately? Not good, folks, Not good!
It sucks, of course, but you can't really expect people to be better than their leaders and, well, have you seen our leaders lately? Not good, folks, Not good!
Trapezoids
It is difficult to not despair, and while blaming the bad orange man for everything is not entirely misplaced, the best the "good guys" came up with in what they themselves described as a "messaging bill" was a mere band aid. Why do you oppose the application of band aids, Atrios? When you're spurting blood a mere band aid is certainly welcome. Of course there are always good things in such legislation, and of course if the choice is "that or nothing," then "that" is better, but it's going to take a bit more than gum and twine to keep this whole thing together. If that's the limit of the vision of even the good guys...
Have We Tried Tax Cuts For Rich People?
Unsurprisingly, the "White House" has some new ideas! A capital gains tax cut "holiday." The economy is saved!
Hope Is The Plan
Pennsylvania set out some criteria for opening stages and then said, ah, fuck it, just ignore what we said before. Time to move on! That doesn't mean that's the wrong decision! But I suspect without a lot of luck...
Saturday, May 23, 2020
Saturday Afternoon
I suppose within a week or so we'll know how much the premature OPENING OF AMERICA is a disaster, or whether people mostly behaving sensibly despite what The Man is telling them to do manages to keep this under control.
I Tried To Empty Out My President's Bank Account
Joke was on me, though, that fucker's broke.
Kayleigh McEnany announced today that Trump was donating part of his presidential salary to HHS. She displayed one of his checks during the announcement.
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) May 23, 2020
She also displayed Trump's private bank account and routing numbers.https://t.co/UZhANooYA6
Jeff Sessions Must Hate Living In Alabama
I can't imagine wanting to go back to the Senate, at age 73, this badly.
.@realdonaldtrump Look, I know your anger, but recusal was required by law. I did my duty & you're damn fortunate I did. It protected the rule of law & resulted in your exoneration. Your personal feelings don't dictate who Alabama picks as their senator, the people of Alabama do. https://t.co/QQKHNAgmiE
— Jeff Sessions (@jeffsessions) May 23, 2020
Morning Thread
Paul Rebmann has taken some of his beautiful nature pics and constructed designer face masks. From my perspective, we're going to be wearing masks for a long, long time. Might as well have a few that are absolutely unique.
I'm always struck that Paul seems to be able to capture the personality of the animals he photographs. That's talent.
I'm always struck that Paul seems to be able to capture the personality of the animals he photographs. That's talent.
Friday, May 22, 2020
The Other New Normal
I keep "joking" (not actually joking) that once the stonks are stabilized, any sense of urgency from the powers that be that anything needs to be fixed, that they need to *do something*, will fast fade.
If you take the views of right economists semi-seriously, the Great Depression was really just the Great Shirk. People weren't unemployed, they just chose not to work at the prevailing wage. This was the view of the Great Recession too. Remember funemployment? The idea that it was just a little vacation for people was pushed in the summer of 2009. A serious take later was that the innovations in video game development (the games were super good now) meant that youngish males just didn't want to work and preferred to game all day.
The other one was "skills mismatch." Stupid Kids listened to us and borrowed all that money to go to college but they didn't get STEM degrees. Time for some jaayuuuuubs retraining!
Every time unemployment goes up, the view of what "the natural rate of unemployment" is goes up with it, and the agreed upon level of what full employment is goes down. The good guys (team Obama) thought we hit it by 2016. It wasn't true, but even if it had been, it took too damn long to get there, and that wasn't because a new Call of Duty, or whatever The Kids Today play, came out.
You'd like to think this can't happen with 20% unemployment, or whatever we're headed to, but it will. It won't take long before we move from no longer panicking (almost there!) to blaming the people for the failures of government. All those lucky duckies and their funemployment!
Oh I see basically already wrote this. 10 years ago.
If you take the views of right economists semi-seriously, the Great Depression was really just the Great Shirk. People weren't unemployed, they just chose not to work at the prevailing wage. This was the view of the Great Recession too. Remember funemployment? The idea that it was just a little vacation for people was pushed in the summer of 2009. A serious take later was that the innovations in video game development (the games were super good now) meant that youngish males just didn't want to work and preferred to game all day.
The other one was "skills mismatch." Stupid Kids listened to us and borrowed all that money to go to college but they didn't get STEM degrees. Time for some jaayuuuuubs retraining!
Every time unemployment goes up, the view of what "the natural rate of unemployment" is goes up with it, and the agreed upon level of what full employment is goes down. The good guys (team Obama) thought we hit it by 2016. It wasn't true, but even if it had been, it took too damn long to get there, and that wasn't because a new Call of Duty, or whatever The Kids Today play, came out.
You'd like to think this can't happen with 20% unemployment, or whatever we're headed to, but it will. It won't take long before we move from no longer panicking (almost there!) to blaming the people for the failures of government. All those lucky duckies and their funemployment!
Oh I see basically already wrote this. 10 years ago.
If I went back in time and informed the Obama administration's economics people that the stimulus they were planning to enact resulted in the May 2010 unemployment rate being 9.7%, they would freak out and realize that more needed to be done. Now that we're here, there's not a lot of freaking.
And I'm not surprised that economists will continue to come up with increasingly clever explanations as to why this is the new normal, as they always do. The Great Recession will just been seen as the Great Shirk, with all those lucky duckies on extended periods of funemployment.
A Thousand Per Day
I don't actually consider myself to be an alarmist/pessimist about the virus situation, though of course self-perception of such things is not exactly reliable. But what if... a thousand deaths per day for several months is just the "new normal."
What Do You Have To Lose
Trump is Trump, but media outlets took this much more seriously than they should have. Sports talk caller Donny from Queens probably doesn't know shit about about anything, and obviously Donald from DC doesn't either.
A study of 96,000 hospitalized coronavirus patients on six continents found that those who received an antimalarial drug promoted by President Trump as a “game changer” in the fight against the virus had a significantly higher risk of death compared with those who did not.And still are.
Hey @usatoday, just a few days ago there were news reports of the new administration strategy to find "pro-Trump doctors" to spread misinfo like this. This is literally journalistic malpractice that will get people killed. https://t.co/zfZP7h3WJW
— Extremely Socially Distant Tom Tomorrow (@tomtomorrow) May 22, 2020
Bloodlines
I certainly think one problem - at least from the "winning the news cycle" perspective, which might or might not be important - is that Democrats fail to play the game (maybe this is good? but it is). Still there are certain things which usually trigger a media reaction that don't require politicians to instigate. The press can and does decide when something is or isn't a scandal for reasons that don't always involve whether or not Lindsey Graham did a hissy fit about it that day.
Praising Henry Ford explicitly for his good bloodlines would be that type of thing. Of course almost 100,000 dead in a pandemic and the obvious and clear corruption and incompetence which contributed to that would be too but lol Trump nothing matters.
Praising Henry Ford explicitly for his good bloodlines would be that type of thing. Of course almost 100,000 dead in a pandemic and the obvious and clear corruption and incompetence which contributed to that would be too but lol Trump nothing matters.
Thursday, May 21, 2020
Shocked
I don't know why people think they can just turn the machines back on.
While he admitted surprise - during a late-morning Hearst Connecticut Media webinar - at how small the response was to retail and restaurant openings on Wednesday, he said that consumers and corporations alike need to establish some confidence.People don't want to risk getting sick. People don't want to risk infecting their friends and family. People don't want to find out their night at Chili's sent mom to the hospital. Going to a restaurant isn't especially fun if you're feeling rather nervous about being in a restaurant.
Capacity
Hospital capacity was always a worry, and while the particular worry has faded in the obvious hot spots like New York City, outbreaks in lower population and less affluent areas would be huge problems as they often lack both the physical infrastructure (beds, machines) and a nearby pool of additional workers to pull from.
The local demographics (race) don't help either. Really the only reason the US reacted as fast as it did - which wasn't fast enough - was because it was hitting relatively affluent, influential, and white populations first, at least "enough" to get attention. Rich people can't really build enough walls to keep it away from them, but for some reason they think they can, and an outbreak among the botched and the bungled "somewhere else" is going to come back for them, eventually.
As experts warn that the push to reopen could lead to a second wave of coronavirus infections across the South in the coming month, some communities are already starting to see their health care systems buckle under strain. Montgomery, Ala. is running out of beds in its intensive care unit, the city’s mayor, Steven Reed, said Wednesday.
The local demographics (race) don't help either. Really the only reason the US reacted as fast as it did - which wasn't fast enough - was because it was hitting relatively affluent, influential, and white populations first, at least "enough" to get attention. Rich people can't really build enough walls to keep it away from them, but for some reason they think they can, and an outbreak among the botched and the bungled "somewhere else" is going to come back for them, eventually.
Piers Morgan Is Good Now
How maddening.
PIERS MORGAN: Spare me your hypocritical claps for the NHS, Prime Minister - you've told lie after lie about why so many health and care workers have died and now you're giving the heroes who saved your life another massive slap in the face.
You Did That
Can't flip from "THE BAD ORANGE MAN AND HIS MINIONS ARE AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT" to "oh we'll trust them to do the right thing this time" over and over.
I should mention here that the blame for this lies fully at the feet of Congress. They built this money cannon, and they deferred to Treasury and the Fed on virtually all of the terms. If they wanted to foreground employee retention they could have said so. If they didn’t like it they could have voted against the bill. It passed 96-0, including the support of Sen. Warren, the questioner today. Congress failed the public on that vote, and too few of them will admit it. It’s notable and good that Joe Biden picked up on Warren’s questioning, demanding “more conditions” to “ensure relief goes to… workers, not their CEOs.” But expecting Steve Mnuchin to make that happened is a fool’s errand.
Mnuchin, in fact, pointed out that the airline bailout has a job retention component, which is true, because Congress wrote that directly into the bill. If you want a policy outcome, put it in writing. If not, don’t expect regulators to fight your battles for you. Yes, Steve Mnuchin is “boosting Wall Street buddies and leaving the rest of Americans behind,” as Warren said. Yes, Treasury and the Fed will prioritize Wall Street, and “any economic recovery will be slowed” as a result, as Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) said in the hearing.
Thursday Is New Jobless Day
2.4 million new lucky duckies. That's not as many as last week, so good news!!!!!!!!!!!!
Peak during the Great Recession was 695,000. Also a big emergency until stonks stabilized then shruggy.
Peak during the Great Recession was 695,000. Also a big emergency until stonks stabilized then shruggy.
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
The Country Is Saved
I'm sorry I ever doubted My Democrats.
Bipartisan group of 4 senators propose $4,000 refundable tax credit for skills training, apprenticeships, 2- and 4-year programs. We like it! https://t.co/d5kgLv2kr2 @amyklobuchar @CoryBooker @BenSasse @TimScottSC thank u!
— Jim Kessler (@ThirdWayKessler) May 20, 2020
Failed State
Fixing the dams and bridges really is the bare minimum.
Two overflowing dams — Edenville and Sanford — in the center of Michigan's Lower Peninsula amid days of rain has forced the evacuation of about 10,000 and caused massive flooding, which the governor said could put Midland under 9 feet of water.
Imagine
Re these sleazy Pompeo State Dept dinners: If sec' y of st Hillary had had such dinners, how many congressional investigations would there have been?
— Michael Tomasky (@mtomasky) May 20, 2020
I don't get the point of these observations. That the opposition party is more likely to hold investigations (if they have the ability by controlling the House or Senate) than the president's own party? That political actors aren't solely dedicated to nonpartisan ideals or NORMS or some bullshit? Sure the Republican party is full of shit all the time. Reporters shouldn't be so willing to pretend to believe them when they are pretending to be outraged about something, and they certainly shouldn't be covering any investigations without some amount of skepticism. At least enough to prove they're awake.
But imagine the Democrats controlled the House? Imagine if they could have their own fully justified oversight investigations? It's easy if you try!
Just Put The Cash On The Table
I've long said that we pretend our political system isn't corrupt - but other countries have corrupt systems - by defining away corruption. But what Trump has brought is the basic "give the bossman your money" politics which has been kind of obscured if not eliminated from federal politics for decades.
It's wrong, dangerous, threatens to bring the country down, and also is *incredibly easy for voters to understand.* "Stealing too much copier paper from the office" is often the kind of scandal that brings people down because it's simple to understand. *Stealing medical supplies to give to your friends to resell them for vast profits in the middle of a pandemic* is almost as simple and also deadly.
If only Democrats ran the House.
And the point isn't simply "hold them accountable" though of course it is that. Is it to MAKE THEM STOP.
It's wrong, dangerous, threatens to bring the country down, and also is *incredibly easy for voters to understand.* "Stealing too much copier paper from the office" is often the kind of scandal that brings people down because it's simple to understand. *Stealing medical supplies to give to your friends to resell them for vast profits in the middle of a pandemic* is almost as simple and also deadly.
If only Democrats ran the House.
And the point isn't simply "hold them accountable" though of course it is that. Is it to MAKE THEM STOP.
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Green Shoots
My super fancy economic model is that the powers that be fucked up the recovery from the Great Recession, which was easy to fix (relatively speaking), and this one is not going to be easy to fix. So, uh, no.
White House officials are increasingly predicting a swift economic recovery as they break off talks with Congress on additional federal stimulus, expressing optimism that the “reopening” of states will reverse the economic damage caused by the coronavirus.
President Trump and his senior advisers, encouraged by the relative strength of the stock market and some indicators like credit card receipts, have in recent days expressed confidence the U.S. economy will roar back to life in the second half of this year despite staggering increases in unemployment and small business closures.
The Grift Goes On
Elon's been "pre-selling" vaporware for years.
Remember when?
Musk has been selling "full self driving" since October, 2016. Another 3 months, 6 months, tops, depending on regulator approval.
The FSD price will continue to rise as the software gets closer to full self-driving capability with regulatory approval. It that point, the value of FSD is probably somewhere in excess of $100,000.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 18, 2020
Remember when?
In October 2016 ... Musk said that every future Tesla vehicle would be capable of driving itself, and promised Tesla would complete a coast-to-coast trip without human intervention by the end of 2017.That did not happen. Just a delay though.
Tesla had aimed to do a cross-country U.S. drive in one of its vehicles using fully autonomous driving capabilities by the end of last year. Obviously it didn’t make that goal, or you’d have heard about it. Instead, Tesla CEO Elon Musk now says he anticipates being able to make the trip within three months, or six months at the long end.Also, no.
During nearly three hours of presentations before investors during the company’s inaugural “Autonomy Day” on Monday, Musk and other Tesla leaders doubled down on the company’s extraordinary claims about the future of travel. Musk said a Tesla purchased today has all the hardware it will ever need to drive itself. By next year, Musk pledged, robotic Tesla taxis will pick up passengers, even though no fully self-driving cars currently exist. A Tesla bought today will soon be able to make up to $30,000 a year for its owners by ferrying passengers around when they don’t need it, Musk said.That was April, 2019.
“It’s financially insane to buy anything but a Tesla,” Musk said, arguing that the vehicle would appreciate in value over time.
Musk has been selling "full self driving" since October, 2016. Another 3 months, 6 months, tops, depending on regulator approval.
No Worries
If we can't count the bodies they don't exist.
The site was created by a team of Florida Department of Health data scientists and public health officers headed by Rebekah Jones. She announced last week her removal as of May 5 in a heartfelt farewell note emailed to researchers and other members of the public who had signed up to receive updates on the data portal.
Citing "reasons beyond my division’s control," Jones said her office is no longer managing the dashboard, is no longer involved in publication, fixing errors or answering questions "in any shape or form."
She warned that she does not know what the new team's intentions are for data access, including "what data they are now restricting."
Monday, May 18, 2020
HE'S TAKING THE MAGIC PILLS
Trump says he's been taking hydroxychloroquine for weeks for some reason. He's either lying or they are giving him sugar pills or a homeopathic dose and not telling him.
And They Have Two Friends And They Have Two Friends And They Have Two Friends
I get the sense that the governors pushing for quick ends to any lockdown rules just think that if they "open up" there will be more cases/deaths, but, oh well, and not that the whole thing with a contagious virus is that it BLOWS UP. It's not 500 new cases per day versus 1000 new cases per day, it's 500 new cases per day versus 1000 a week later and 2000 a week after that and 4000 a week after that and 8000 a week after that and 16000 a week after that and...
Which I thought we all knew a couple of months ago but that was 50 years ago.
Which I thought we all knew a couple of months ago but that was 50 years ago.
Some People Want To Watch The World Burn
The apocalypse would get BORING really quickly but it SOUNDS EXCITING.
You Can Ignore Them
But for some reason getting a C- from teacher is far more worrisome than the country completely falling apart.
Perhaps the most preposterous CBO estimate of late, however, is the one about automatic stabilizers. These would be some kind of rescue policy that would keep going until the economy was back up to full strength — like continuing monthly stimulus checks so long as, say, unemployment was above 6 percent and inflation was below 4 percent. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi told reporters that she wanted to include something like this, but the threat of a big CBO score prevented her from doing so.Hold on. Gotta filet Ryan's tilapia.
Nobody has a clue how long the coronavirus depression is going to last, which will determine how long stabilizers would be activated. So now we have the agency making up a score based on an arbitrary and probably wrong guess about how the economy is going to do, and ignoring the broader economic context at the worst possible moment. The thing about economic stabilizers is that they would almost certainly pay for themselves over the long term by preventing the economy from collapsing. In other words, their cost as a percentage of the economy will be negative, because without them output will be much lower. It's literally free money, and the CBO's cramped ideological perspective is preventing America from picking it up.
Pelosi's cramped ideological perspective is preventing America from picking it up.Much better.
Tweet Sweetener
The First Lady is joining her less-popular husband tomorrow for a call with governors. She has advocated mask-wearing as the president has treated it dismissively until the last week. And she could have a softening effect on a president trying to resurrect the 2016 playbook.
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) May 18, 2020
Return my calls Melania!!! Return my calls!!!
Respectable Elites
One reason reporters spend too much time in Ohio diners is to distract from the fact that it isn't just Bubba with a truck who is a big racist. The racism is coming from inside their houses!
A standard line for decades, even after Murdoch bought it, was that the opinion side of the WSJ was nuts but the news side was great.
Former editor of the Wall Street Journal writes column calling for more coverage of “black violence against whites,” complains about Google results for “whites shot by blacks.”
— Lois Beckett (@loisbeckett) May 18, 2020
Remember who was radicalized by results for “black on white crime”? https://t.co/JWf9f3XDQW pic.twitter.com/MdqbifGf6Q
A standard line for decades, even after Murdoch bought it, was that the opinion side of the WSJ was nuts but the news side was great.
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Comorbidities
I know younger boomers don't like to think of themselves as old, but they gotta know those pill containers are there for something....
AZAR: The coronavirus results for the US could've been vastly worse
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 17, 2020
TAPPER: It's worse here than anywhere else
A: When you look at mortality rates, that's simply not correct
T: I'm looking at number of dead bodies
A: The US population has significant unhealthy comorbidities pic.twitter.com/z1NYoHj7Sp
OPEN THE ECONOMY
We have these moments when repeating dumb but obvious things seems so, well, dumb, but necessary because somehow everyone is either dumb or pretending to be dumb within the ridiculous perceived boundaries of "objective journalism."
There is no "going back to normal" and "recovery" until this mostly or completely goes away. And, who knows, maybe my big wet boy is correct and this will all just go away magically somehow. Assuming that's not the case, some portion of the population is going to drastically curtail their "economic" activities, due to the fact that they are poor and because risking their lives to go to Applebees or a movie theater probably doesn't seem like such a great idea, at least not as often.
You can do smart things to hasten "going back normal" or at least more normal, but the feds certainly aren't. You can do smart things to cushion the economic damage, both ongoing and in preparing for the future. You can figure out how to make adjustments to make life in a pandemic more normal. But no matter what is done, some people are just going to stay home, no matter how many "GO SHOPPING" commercials you run.
There is no "going back to normal" and "recovery" until this mostly or completely goes away. And, who knows, maybe my big wet boy is correct and this will all just go away magically somehow. Assuming that's not the case, some portion of the population is going to drastically curtail their "economic" activities, due to the fact that they are poor and because risking their lives to go to Applebees or a movie theater probably doesn't seem like such a great idea, at least not as often.
You can do smart things to hasten "going back normal" or at least more normal, but the feds certainly aren't. You can do smart things to cushion the economic damage, both ongoing and in preparing for the future. You can figure out how to make adjustments to make life in a pandemic more normal. But no matter what is done, some people are just going to stay home, no matter how many "GO SHOPPING" commercials you run.
Saturday, May 16, 2020
Endless Waves
I am puzzled by all the references to "dealing with a 2nd wave in the Fall" or something. The first wave isn't over! Not at all!
The Endowment
Just what is the money in the banana stand for.
I bring this up because a number of you have reached out to provide us with valuable feedback regarding our recently announced budget adjustments. Specifically, many of you have asked why an institution with a $46 billion endowment is freezing salaries, rescinding job offers, refusing to adjust tenure tracks, and laying off staff instead of using an endowment the size of Iceland’s GDP to keep our community afloat.I've heard all the supposedly serious reasons why the endowments are untouchable and, well, they are, also, too, bullshit.
Let me say this: We hear you. You are valid. You. Matter. Secondly, and no less importantly, let me make something clear: The. Endowment. Is. Not. For. You.
I know what you’re thinking: “Sir, we dip into 5 percent of the endowment per year to cover operating costs, so why don’t we just go up to, like, 7 or 8 percent instead of leaving our employees to twist in the wind?” Let me personally assure you that I hear what you’re saying, and it’s horseshit. Under no circumstances may we touch the endowment. We would sooner take Henry Kissinger’s name off our Center for the Study of Human Rights than take another penny out of the endowment.
Fuck Everyone
I was never surprised that much of the country would happily exterminate the rest of the world, especially the rest of the brown world, but I admit the zeal for killing our own citizens, even when that killing increases personal risk, has been a bit striking. Evil and stupid! Quite the combination. Would rich people kill you for a nickel? Why yes, yes they would. Would they go on to host an Aspen Ideas Festival talk or have their latest book discussed in glowing terms by David Brooks subsequently? Almost certainly.
Killing Our Great Veterans
Remember their plan was to flood all the hospitals in New York and New Jersey with this and make them give it to patients because someone told our big wet boy it would solve his problems and people like Elon Musk were pushing it.
A study of Veterans Affairs patients hospitalized with the coronavirus found no benefit and higher death rates among those taking hydroxychloroquine, researchers said last month.Sucking up to Trump by killing people.
More than 27 percent of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine died, and 22 percent of those treated with the combination therapy died, compared with an 11.4 percent death rate in those not treated with the drugs, the study said.
Concern is mounting after a doctor at a Texas nursing home started giving the anti-malaria drug hydroxychloroquine to dozens of elderly patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and tracking the outcomes in what he's calling an "observational study."
Friday, May 15, 2020
Children
All along I've been wondering how everybody would be reacting if the virus was damaging children more than adults, instead of apparently much less than. This isn't that, precisely, but it is an additional worry.
Medical professionals in 20 states and Washington D.C. are investigating more than 200 confirmed or suspected cases of a mysterious illness thought to be linked to the coronavirus and affecting children, according to a new ABC News survey of hospital and state health officials across the country. And while the unexplained syndrome is believed to be extremely rare, experts said they expect the number to grow.
Outsourcing
To dday.
This puts Nancy Pelosi to the right of Joe Biden for the dumbest reason imaginable. Meanwhile the bill subsidizes COBRA for laid-off workers who lose health insurance, an unbelievably expensive proposition (about 50 percent more per person than putting the unemployed on Medicare, according to the Political Economy Research Institute at UMass). So cost is only a concern when you’re not propping up the private insurance industry.
This bill, pitched as a messaging effort, has now been made toxic for swing-district members. Every ad in the fall will come from it. Either they say no, and they are accused of voting to fire cops and teachers, or they say yes, and are accused of voting to bail out lobbyists and insurance companies. (And slumlords and debt collectors.) There’s no vision of what to accomplish; it’s a grab-bag of wish list policies and attempts at compromise with special interests, of moonshot spending and carefully trimmed and means tested measures.
What will happen is that this entire bill will be thrown out except for a fraction of the state and local fiscal aid, paired with capital gains tax cuts or whatever the Trump administration decides they want, and this sorry exercise will have done nothing but hurt re-election chances and expose Pelosi’s preoccupations. What a waste.
Everything
I don't think "going back" to the day before Donald Trump was elected is such a good idea, but it's impossible now anyway. Band aids are not enough. "Stimulus" is not enough. Every segment of society is going to be deeply messed up. This is so much bigger than The Great Recession. The band aids that the good guys are proposing are not nearly enough stop the bleeding, let alone revive the patient.
Yes I'm repeating myself but everything is going to break.
Yes I'm repeating myself but everything is going to break.
KEYBOARD KOMMANDOS
Finally MY PRESIDENT has recognized our great efforts of the nation's most noble warriors in the fight against islamochinocoronafascism!!!
Thank you to all of my great Keyboard Warriors. You are better, and far more brilliant, than anyone on Madison Avenue (Ad Agencies). There is nobody like you!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 15, 2020
Thursday, May 14, 2020
Exponential
Imagine what would have happened if NYC had delayed lockdown by another week. Or another one. Maybe this is all going to fizzle out, somehow, but that's what these idiotic places opening up too early potentially face. There's a delay between catching it, symptoms, and diagnosis (by test or just figuring it out) and too early "opening up" combined with too slow backpedaling...
Or maybe everything's gonna be ok...
Or maybe everything's gonna be ok...
Got Him This Time
Reason #876484997 Trump is bad, murderous, corrupt, etc...
It isn't that I think all of these things don't matter, but there is no Celestial Hall Monitor to give an Official Ruling. Republicans don't care or are so corrupted they can't care. To the extent that there are the imagined Celestial Hall Monitors - the editorial boards, The Wise Old Men of Washington, those that fancy themselves to somehow be the stewards of the country, the continuity of power - they have spent decades demonstrating that they won't even bother to try to intervene when Republicans are burning everything down.
There are some people with power but the instant they decided congressional subpoenas were just suggestions they gave that up, too.
It isn't that I think all of these things don't matter, but there is no Celestial Hall Monitor to give an Official Ruling. Republicans don't care or are so corrupted they can't care. To the extent that there are the imagined Celestial Hall Monitors - the editorial boards, The Wise Old Men of Washington, those that fancy themselves to somehow be the stewards of the country, the continuity of power - they have spent decades demonstrating that they won't even bother to try to intervene when Republicans are burning everything down.
There are some people with power but the instant they decided congressional subpoenas were just suggestions they gave that up, too.
Don't Worry About Our Bad Bill, It's Just A Message Bill
Truly a weird bunch of people.
As soon as Pelosi’s bill was announced, Republicans called it “dead on arrival.” The Democrats knew this would happen. Their bill is meant to send a message about what needs to be done. Or that is what it should have been. Instead, they have already started negotiating against themselves, before the real negotiations have even begun. This losing dynamic will continue until the progressive faction of the party forces its leaders to be just as ruthless as the Republicans are—not in the interests of donors, but in the interests of the 300 million other Americans. Unfortunately, we are a long, long way from there now. And those 300 million other Americans will continue to suffer in the meantime.
Can't Even Drive Itself Through A Tunnel Without Help
But Elon's robotaxis are coming.
The Loop will pack those passengers into Model 3s, Model Xs, and a “tram” built on the Model 3 platform that can fit between 12 and 16 passengers, according to Steve Hill, the CEO and president of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, who spoke to The Verge this week. His organization runs the convention center.
Those vehicles will eventually zip through the tunnels autonomously, but they will start off with drivers, Hill said. After that, the vehicles will follow “conduit” and sensors that are being laid in the tunnels — so they’ll appear to be autonomous but won’t actually be driving themselves. “Whenever we get to the point where we know that [it’s safe to let the vehicles drive themselves],” Hill said, “that’s when we’ll take that step. But there is not a deadline for making that happen.”
But The NORMS
Lol the president just decides who gets prosecuted and who doesn't now and welp whatchagonnado.
A Warrant For Burr, Sir?
For the FBI to go after a Republican senator, they must have him on video saying "DO CRIMES DO ALL THE CRIMES HERE ARE A LIST OF CRIMES I WOULD LIKE YOU TO DO AND HERE ARE MY CRIME BANK ACCOUNTS AND OH I KILLED MY PARENTS HERE IS VIDEO OF THAT TOO."
That everybody knows this not only a possible consideration but a probable one, and every supposedly respectable newspaper editorial board isn't calling for him to resign...
WASHINGTON —Or, more likely, Trump doesn't like him for some reason.
Federal agents seized a cellphone belonging to a prominent Republican senator on Wednesday night as part of the Justice Department’s investigation into controversial stock trades he made as the novel coronavirus first struck the U.S., a law enforcement official said.
In case you were wondering if Trump OKed this prosecution, Federalist Faceplant Mollie says Yes! https://t.co/GJdI2VTn1h
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) May 14, 2020
That everybody knows this not only a possible consideration but a probable one, and every supposedly respectable newspaper editorial board isn't calling for him to resign...
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Time Keeps On Ticking
I haven't been in a car or bus (or anywhere other than by foot) for 2 months. It isn't a problem for daily life, but having the practical radius of existence reduced to 3 miles or so (6 miles round trip) is interesting.
Yelling At Them On The Internet
There isn't much point at yelling at Trump and Republicans on the internet. They don't care what I think. Also, too, you all know that Trump sucks. I don't have to remind you. Occasionally this mighty blog can help by yelling at media figures, and occasionally by yelling at Democrats.
The fact that Biden came out strongly against the Trump White House’s floating of a proposal to have people draw today on future Social Security earnings, while at the same time Summers protégé and campaign adviser Natasha Sarin recently co-authored an academic paper with the same idea, shows the push and pull between Biden’s instincts and the policy advice that he’s getting. Late on Tuesday, Sarin renounced her position in a Bloomberg op-ed, stating that "tapping Social Security would be a big mistake." This gives at least some hope that Biden's expressed views are filtering down to his advisers, and that outside pressure (Sarin was getting an earful on social media) works.Clapping louder rarely achieves anything. Sorry Tinkerbell.
So Many Lucky Duckies
Better make sure these moochers aren't double dipping.
Wow. Fed Chair Powell just said:
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) May 13, 2020
"Almost 40% of those in households making less than $40,000 a year lost a job in March."
This is according to a Fed survey coming out tomorrow. It measures the pain among people who were working in January & February. pic.twitter.com/g762UgbV3j
Cracking Open The Lock Box
Social Security. That's where the money is. If you can find a way to get .01 or .1 or 1 or 10% of it siphoned out into your pockets, or the pockets of your rich pals generally, it's a victory.
We start with.
Which is followed by some pushback by dumb assholes on the internet without elite pedigrees.
Which is followed by ass covering.
That's not what I meant! That's not what I meant! I didn't mean that people should be able to raid their Social Security accounts after paying some fees to some middle men! I just meant it would be great if they could have zero interest loans and used Social Security as the most ridiculous way to make this point!
I am a very smart academic! It took a million years of school for me to come up with the idea that "if people need to borrow, borrowing at low interest rates makes them better off!" I am the first person to have thought of this idea!!
We start with.
As I wrote last week, the Biden campaign has been doing its best to conceal Larry Summers’s involvement in the campaign. But now Bloomberg News has outed him.
My own reporting indicates that Summers not only plays a direct role, but has managed to insert close allies and protégés to argue against progressive policies, including his former student and frequent co-author Natasha Sarin (they wrote an op-ed trashing Warren’s proposed wealth tax), as well as Adam Looney, who served with Summers at the Obama White House and then was policy director of the Robert Rubin–sponsored Hamilton Project.Which is followed with:
🚨 COVID paper alert 🚨
— Natasha Sarin (@NatashaRSarin) May 5, 2020
Excited to share a new paper with @sc_cath and @mjmill611
We show that allowing workers to access a tiny % of their future Social Security benefits today can provide the liquidity they need to weather this storm.
Thread: pic.twitter.com/Jmu7VeH0FH
Which is followed by some pushback by dumb assholes on the internet without elite pedigrees.
Which is followed by ass covering.
Trump’s “Eagle Plan” to use Social Security as an alternative to much-needed fiscal stimulus is a mistake.
— Natasha Sarin (@NatashaRSarin) May 12, 2020
I outline why in @bopinion today. https://t.co/KlH0BnyJ4k
Thread:
That's not what I meant! That's not what I meant! I didn't mean that people should be able to raid their Social Security accounts after paying some fees to some middle men! I just meant it would be great if they could have zero interest loans and used Social Security as the most ridiculous way to make this point!
For context: I co-authored an academic paper w/ @sc_cath and @mjmill611 quantifying the increase in liquidity from providing households 1% of future SS benefits today.
— Natasha Sarin (@NatashaRSarin) May 12, 2020
Our point was: if ppl do borrow, they should be able to do so a 0% interest, w/o enriching banks.
I am a very smart academic! It took a million years of school for me to come up with the idea that "if people need to borrow, borrowing at low interest rates makes them better off!" I am the first person to have thought of this idea!!
I can’t put my finger on why, but I think she might be lying. pic.twitter.com/NVVdBQbsyM
— Ironize Codeine (@mphilphillips) May 12, 2020
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
The Wall
International travel is going to be a messy issue everywhere for awhile, but "Americans stay home" isn't going to be a hard call.
One thing is sure: Gone are the days of the American abroad, at least for those hoping to summer in Europe this year. The new models on how to reopen European travel do not have room for the American tourist for the foreseeable future.
The European Union is set to release new guidelines called “Europe Needs a Break” on Wednesday that will recommend replacing travel bans with what they are calling “targeted restrictions” based on contagion levels and reciprocity among European and neighboring nations, many of which have been under draconian lockdowns backed by science. The key to any successful reopening in Europe is based entirely on risk assessment, meaning anyone coming from a nation deemed risky or careless will be the first to be banned. Simply put, anyone who has been under the lax American approach to the pandemic, which has been the laughing stock of Europe, won’t be welcome any time soon.
Nothing. Is Nothing Good Enough For You?
Because I don't have much other than despair at the moment. Even if the virus disappears tomorrow, the foundation has been cracked. Perhaps not irreparably quite yet, but soon...
Double It And Then Double It Again
The "good guys" don't control everything but there's a difference between not being able to pass/implement something appropriate and communicating clearly that you have no awareness that something yuuuuge is necessary.
Cybyerpals
Such fun.
California should let Tesla & @elonmusk open the plant, NOW. It can be done Fast & Safely!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 12, 2020
Brand
I know it's not an especially important thing at the moment, but I am struck by Elon Musk's deliberate trashing of his brand (and this is deliberate) of appealing to people with vague environmental concerns and science nerds to go full COVID-19 denial and MAGA RESISTANCE HERO. Not that all science nerds have good politics, of course, and not all science nerds are especially bright, but there is some degree of "RESPECT SCIENCE." Now the guy who makes electric cars that are going to save the planet and save humanity by building rockets to mars (this is dumb, but science nerds do dream) is denying the pandemic raging around him, peddling quack cures (he was an early chloroquinine pusher), and trying to get his workers killed. He's gone full Trump!
Musk's hardcore fans are generally pretty stupid. Musk is a dumb science nerd's idea of what a Smart Science Guy is, but Musk had a lot of general cultural branding of "VISIONARY SCIENCE SMART GUY WHO WILL SAVE THE WORLD" and lol that's all gone now.
Musk's hardcore fans are generally pretty stupid. Musk is a dumb science nerd's idea of what a Smart Science Guy is, but Musk had a lot of general cultural branding of "VISIONARY SCIENCE SMART GUY WHO WILL SAVE THE WORLD" and lol that's all gone now.
Monday, May 11, 2020
Drama Queen
What a buffoon.
Tesla is restarting production today against Alameda County rules. I will be on the line with everyone else. If anyone is arrested, I ask that it only be me.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 11, 2020
Give Bill Barr A Chance
I suppose the precedent of "arresting everyone involved with the past administration and throwing them in jail without bail" isn't *entirely* a bad one...
DIGENOVA: And you realize that everybody at the senior FBI and DOJ levels was in on it. And what's really fascinating is when you go back and you look at that January 5th meeting, 2017, in the Oval Office with all the intelligence community leaders -- the vice president, Sally Yates, Comey, Brennan, and Susan Rice, the president of the United States at that meeting, Barack Obama, is discussing the ongoing investigations into the Trump campaign, the interregnum, the transition, and the upcoming presidency. And says in that meeting according to Susan Rice, he wants to be kept informed so he can help decide whether or not they're going to withhold classified information from the incoming administration involving Russia. That is sedition.
COGLIANESE: Yes!
DIGENOVA: That is beyond anything we've ever heard about a president leaving office, doing to his successor. What Obama did in that office was sedition on that day. And I must say, these people are ballsy. McCord and others, screaming about the ways their actions are being misinterpreted.
COGLIANESE: Ha!
DIGENOVA: And do you know why they're screaming? Because there's a conspiracy indictment coming down the track. I don't mean that Mary McCord is going to be indicted, but if you read the motion to dismiss, which the government filed, it reads like an indictment. And the reason it reads like an indictment is that it's going to be part of an indictment.
COGLIANESE: Excellent.
Katie Miller? A Democrat, I Think, Never Met Her
If people in Trump's orbit get sick watch as they become unpeople rather quickly. I mean I wouldn't want people with an especially weak set of genes around. Would you? Losers.
Good?
We'll destroy the empire to preserve the right of Big Pharma to charge $100K a dose.
The FBI and the Department of Homeland Security are preparing to issue a warning that China’s most skilled hackers and spies are working to steal American research in the crash effort to develop vaccines and treatments for the coronavirus. https://t.co/7YVh4OPIyM
— New York Times World (@nytimesworld) May 11, 2020
Empires Fall
The last real resources in the US will be spent building planes that don't fly and supporting the yacht purchases of NoVa "defense consultants."
Been extracting too much to keep our joke empire - we mostly don't bother to loot the world, just our own country to support it - alive for decades, and we're never gonna stop.
Been extracting too much to keep our joke empire - we mostly don't bother to loot the world, just our own country to support it - alive for decades, and we're never gonna stop.
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Full Covid Truther
Absolutely. Moreover, they don’t even need to be tested for covid, just need “covid-like symptoms”, which is a long list, including “feeling weakness”. Hard to die *without* feeling weakness!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 10, 2020
Glad everyone gets to see the Elon I "know" finally.
Glad we get to laugh at something these days.
America's Worst Humans
Mike Turzai.
60% of 60+ have hypertension. Pennsylvania is not a young state, especially outside of the majority D areas.
— Speaker Mike Turzai (@RepTurzai) May 9, 2020
60% of 60+ have hypertension. Pennsylvania is not a young state, especially outside of the majority D areas.
In this video, PA Speaker of the House Mike Turzai says that schools should reopen because“kids can development herd immunity” and are “not at risk unless they have an underlying medical issue.” Oh, and because PA pays its teachers so much money they should have to earn it. pic.twitter.com/fADoNAQXix
— Daniel Jacobson (@Dan_F_Jacobson) May 10, 2020
"They"
It isn't good, folks. That's the no malarkey version.
Our leaders are guilty of a colossal failure of imagination. The ability to understand what’s truly happening is a prerequisite for devising solutions. Until they begin looking squarely at the daunting reality, the United States has no chance of surmounting this crisis.Thinking about some good tweaks to the trapezoids! Maybe a 3% EITC expansion!
THE RISK TAKERS
Not a new point, but the ENTRUHPRENEEEEURZ and JAYYAAB CREAATURRZ are supposed to reap all the rewards of the economy, in part, because they are THE RISK TAKERS. That's a bullshit frame for a lot of reasons, of course, but it's especially bullshit when the first impulse is to bail them out. I'm not against whatever measures to keep the things going as much as possible during a nationwide economy-wide event such as this, but that they are the first (and potentially) last to the trough, and workers, who are NOT RISK TASKERS, are supposed to bear all the risk...
Morning Thread
Every time I see a picture of a crowded store with most people not wearing masks or even attempting physical distancing, I figure my personal lockdown has been extended by two weeks. This is getting old.
Saturday, May 09, 2020
Oh, Elon
Having another normal weekend.
Tesla is filing a lawsuit against Alameda County immediately. The unelected & ignorant “Interim Health Officer” of Alameda is acting contrary to the Governor, the President, our Constitutional freedoms & just plain common sense!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 9, 2020
The Wall
Absent an absurd turn of good luck at the Deus ex Machina level, the US could be a "no go zone" for the rest of the world soon.
Some Experts Agree
Amazing! NYT found someone to clean up Trump’s “tests aren’t great because they tell you that you’re sick” argument. pic.twitter.com/1xvPpqsL9w
— Peter Kafka (@pkafka) May 9, 2020
President stable genius is super smart, because he understands that tests can't tell you that you're sick if you aren't yet sick.
What a garbage paper. Make sure you get a quote from someone to show that the president is not a dumbass!
Monkeysphere
The only reason "we" are taking this as seriously as we have been (which, depending on the "we," means barely at all, but still) is because some relatively high on the social scale people got it early. Longtime readers remember how, years ago, I used to joke that we wouldn't take it seriously until it breached the NoVa virus defense wall. And then it did.
Friday, May 08, 2020
Phoenix
Trump is Trump, but I really don't get all the brain geniuses around him who couldn't manage to convince him that while his grand REOPENING OF AMERICA wasn't going to happen as fast as he wanted (remember Easter?), it could, potentially, happen if he just had a bit of patience and did 1/20 of the necessary things, or at least let other people do 1/20 of the necessary things. He could do his victory lap in September as well as now. Happy to be wrong but all the states prematurely opening too many things are likely going to require another stricter lockdown in places. And over. And over.
Or, maybe not! Maybe it will just go away... My big wet boy is a smart guy, he knows things, and people are always amazed at how much he understands.
Or, maybe not! Maybe it will just go away... My big wet boy is a smart guy, he knows things, and people are always amazed at how much he understands.
At Least Donald Trump Kept Us Safe
"Katie" from the VPs office got a positive test. Presumably THE Katie.
This Much I Know I Is True
If stonks crash in the next 2 hours emergency legislation involving free money for billionaires will pass about 2 hours later.
Ah, Well, Nevertheless
Recovery summer, bitches.
(Reuters) - The White House will not consider any further stimulus legislation this month as it eyes the economic impact from reopening U.S. states, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters on Friday, adding that formal talks with Congress have paused
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 8, 2020
We'll Know Better Next Time
I don't have the entirety of The Discourse jacked into my head, but I see very little acknowledgement from the people in power, or even people with big microphones, that this is an unfolding disaster that can't be remedied with the equivalent of a few band aids. Things are fucked - short term, long term, structurally - and they can't easily be unfucked. Fixing the Great Recession was easy and "they" failed at that. Fixing this one is hard and even with unimaginable unemployment numbers coming in there doesn't seem to be much urgency.
It's been 8 weeks since Mitch McConnell took his 3 day weekend and Democrats pretended to be mad about that. Pelosi won't let the House do anything except vote for bills she hands them 5 minutes before, and we have evidence from minute one that Pelosi and her people are bad and incompetent about what needs to be done.
Just a reminder:
That's Pelosi's Deputy Chief of Staff. Anyone knew that one way or another trillions were about to go out the door to save THE MARKET (through the Fed, Treasury, etc.) and they were worried about whether Don Jr's $1200 check might be too generous for him.
It's been 8 weeks since Mitch McConnell took his 3 day weekend and Democrats pretended to be mad about that. Pelosi won't let the House do anything except vote for bills she hands them 5 minutes before, and we have evidence from minute one that Pelosi and her people are bad and incompetent about what needs to be done.
Just a reminder:
As Congress considers the next steps, the Speaker believes we should look at refundable tax credits, expanded UI & direct payments—but MUST be targeted.
— Drew Hammill (@Drew_Hammill) March 17, 2020
That's Pelosi's Deputy Chief of Staff. Anyone knew that one way or another trillions were about to go out the door to save THE MARKET (through the Fed, Treasury, etc.) and they were worried about whether Don Jr's $1200 check might be too generous for him.
14.7% Unemployment
Think that's a big number.
Peaked at 10% during the Great Recession.
8.6 million net jobs lost during the Great Recession. 20.5 million jobs were lost in April.
Peaked at 10% during the Great Recession.
8.6 million net jobs lost during the Great Recession. 20.5 million jobs were lost in April.
Thursday, May 07, 2020
Green Shoots
We're gonna hit the "everything is wonderful except those negative nellies who keep complaining about all the bodies who, if you think about, are responsible for the deaths" phase soon.
We're a can do nation, citizen, and don't you forget it.
We're a can do nation, citizen, and don't you forget it.
Your Family First, Big Guy
Fox News' Pete Hegseth calls for people to go out and get infected by coronavirus: "Now that we are learning more, herd immunity is our friend. Healthy people getting out there -- they are going to have to have some courage." pic.twitter.com/PCSHm9yUAW
— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) May 7, 2020
I Got Nothin'
I suppose I really don't. It's a horrible situation and even the supposed "good guys" at the federal level, who don't run things entirely but who aren't entirely powerless, have shown no signs of having any sense of the catastrophe that is unfolding. "No one" panics unless stonks are tanking, and the Fed is making sure that doesn't happen.
As long as "the market" is happy, rich people are happy, "everybody" is happy.
As long as "the market" is happy, rich people are happy, "everybody" is happy.
Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Excess Deaths
The daily numbers probably give a relatively accurate picture of the trends (taking differences is a useful trick for this stuff), but the overall true numbers are certainly higher and quite like much much higher.
New data released by the State of New Jersey suggests the true toll of COVID-19 may be much greater than previously thought.45% more than the official COVID-19 deaths.
Vital statistics released by the state show the total number of deaths by any cause between March and April rose from 12,567 last year to 23,070 this year. The 10,503 additional deaths recorded this year represent an 83% increase over 2019.
You Can't Handle The Truth
Interesting quote in the Economist: Britain's public broadcaster, the BBC, has decided to sacrifice some usual "journalistic values" in the interests of 'the nation' pic.twitter.com/8UpWfZTHvV
— Tom Hancock (@hancocktom) May 6, 2020
If the image isn't quite displaying:
"[T]he bosses are keen that we come out of this with the sense that we looked after the interest of the nation, not just our journalistic values."Always glad when some random media executives take it upon themselves to decide what the "interest of the nation" is. A concept that can be extended rather broadly.
Spreading
I imagine the basic story of the disease spread in the US will be that it spread at first through relatively elite populations - international travellers and the people who know them - before moving into the population of expendable essential workers who were unable to take the precautions (work from home, or not work at all!) that richer people subsequently could.
It isn't population density, it's crowded enclosed spaces and the people who can't or won't avoid them.
It isn't population density, it's crowded enclosed spaces and the people who can't or won't avoid them.
As the world’s attention was fixated on the horrors in Italy and New York City, the per capita death rates in counties in the impoverished southwest corner of Georgia climbed to among the worst in the country. The devastation here is a cautionary tale of what happens when the virus seeps into communities that have for generations remained on the losing end of the nation’s most intractable inequalities: these counties are rural, mostly African American and poor.
Two Sources Close To Jared And Ivanka
It did diminish, somewhat, but I wonder if any of the journalists who served as their de facto PR agents for a couple of years feel bad.
Haha I keed.
Haha I keed.
It's Wednesday
I'm writing that cause I honestly didn't know for sure. Had to look at the computer for verification.
Tuesday, May 05, 2020
They're Just People, Michael, What Could They Cost?
Lol (what else can we do but laugh).
During a private call on Friday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott admitted that “every scientific and medical report shows” state reopenings “ipso facto” lead to an increase in novel coronavirus cases, even as he publicly announced plans that same week to end an executive stay-at-home order in the state.
“How do we know reopening businesses won’t result in faster spread of more cases of COVID-19?” Abbott asked during a Friday afternoon phone call with members of the state legislature and Congress. “Listen, the fact of the matter is pretty much every scientific and medical report shows that whenever you have a reopening—whether you want to call it a reopening of businesses or of just a reopening of society—in the aftermath of something like this, it actually will lead to an increase and spread. It’s almost ipso facto.”
“The more that you have people out there, the greater the possibility is for transmission,” Abbott said on the call, which a spokesperson confirmed was authentic on Tuesday. “The goal never has been to get transmission down to zero.”
On Our Own
Trump staying out of the way and just blaming everybody else for fucking things up is probably better than Trump fucking things up and then blaming everybody for the fact that he fucked everything up.
Boys Will Be Boys
All the worst people.
The New York attorney general’s office late last year launched an investigation into allegations of sexual harassment, retaliation and gender discrimination at NBC News, Variety has learned. NBC News chief Andrew Lack and former “Hardball” host Chris Matthews were among multiple high-ranking executives and newsroom talents whose behavior was the subject of questioning, according to multiple sources.
...
Another woman, an NBC employee who worked for Matthews, says she was interviewed by the attorney general’s office, though she spoke to Variety on the condition of anonymity, fearing further retaliation from the network.
“I was interviewed over the phone for sexual harassment and retaliation,” the woman told Variety, explaining that she was sexually harassed by Matthews when she worked for him and was then retaliated against by higher-ups at NBC, after she reported her situation to human resources.
“Everyone in that company knew about it and they knew about it for years and it was a horrible,” this woman says.
At least two women with complaints of sexual harassment against Matthews spoke to the attorney general’s office, three individuals with knowledge of the investigation say.
Warriors
Trump before boarding Air Force One: "The people of our country should think of themselves as warriors. Our country has to open."
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) May 5, 2020
In a few more days he'll nuke NYC if someone convinces him that it will make this all go away and let him get back to doing fun racism at rallies.
Trust Us
"Oh, Nancy Pelosi is just being very smart. By not bringing Congress back she ensures that she gets to decide what happens without any input from other members of Congress" is a sort of true thing someone said to me but they said it was a good thing.
There are justifications for emergency legislation being written without much debate when we are at the moment of an emergency. And, you know, we are in a big emergency. Also, too, it's such an emergency that it's been over 7 weeks since the emergency was apparent, and, well...
There are justifications for emergency legislation being written without much debate when we are at the moment of an emergency. And, you know, we are in a big emergency. Also, too, it's such an emergency that it's been over 7 weeks since the emergency was apparent, and, well...
The Thing About Delco Is
It doesn't even have a health department.
Also, too, fuck the olds.
The Pennsylvania counties you see in yellow are due to enter a new phase of reopening on Friday. Officials in Delaware County are trying to find ways to make that happen sooner in Southeastern PA.https://t.co/j1SlGuK2ua pic.twitter.com/ufMlaxdmM4
— Matt O'Donnell (@matt_odonnell) May 5, 2020
Also, too, fuck the olds.
Councilman Madden suggested nursing homes, which make up the bulk of their cases, be counted separately from the rest of the population.Basically every impulse of "bad governance" has ruled Delco for decades.
"When you have 70% of the deaths we've had occur in nursing homes, if anything we want to shine a light on is that and to make sure the situation there is not getting conflated with the rest of the community."
But Secretary of Health, Dr. Rachel Levine, did not agree, saying that nursing homes are part of the community with staff going back and forth.
Monday, May 04, 2020
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hoyer gives House Democrats no set timetable for return to Washington for votes, in caucus-wide call.
— Billy House (@HouseInSession) May 4, 2020
Catastrophe
I'd guess they've decided they've played out the "if we predict a tiny number of deaths that will magically come true" strategy and are now going with the "if we totally overestimate the number then we will look like heroes!!!" strategy.
More importantly, they're pushing states to re-open even as they're predicting a rising death toll because of it. They want to kill you.
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.But that doesn't mean their overestimate is, in fact, an overestimate
More importantly, they're pushing states to re-open even as they're predicting a rising death toll because of it. They want to kill you.
Bored Now
The thing is, if Trump thought he could end this and "go back to normal" by snapping his fingers and killing 10 million people over night, he would. No there is no going back to normal with that, of course, but for some reason a lot of nutters think there is. Just let the virus burn. Burn, baby, burn.
Or Maybe A Million
My President is wisely readjusting his very beautiful predictions of the death toll, in that every time they exceed his previous prediction he predicts a higher number.
You can't do that, libs.
You can't do that, libs.
Flatten The Curve
To the extent that anyone thinks they're being sensible instead of LOL GONNA KILL OUR POPULATION TO OWN THE LIBS, it seems to be the belief that "flattening the curve" (or close enough, sort of) was the goal. Whether that's actually the goal (as long as it's flat lots of people die but at least they have hospital beds first!) or just stupid people not understanding things, the curve won't remain flat if you re-open the Fuddruckers...
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