I saw a very savvy take the other day, that "big legislation didn't help Dems in 2010," presumably meaning the ACA. And, well, whatever the merits of the ACA, even if you ignore the general shit show (tea party etc) around it, the ACA didn't provide any obvious benefits to people right away. Most of it was phased in, beginning in
2014. Sorry voters will not reward you for that in 2010!
There's no magic formula to winning elections, of course. Weird things always happen. But the savviest of takes always seem to come down to "Actually, LOL NOTHING MATTERS" and, well, ok, if that's true, just do the right the thing and hope the coin toss goes your way.