Wednesday, August 31, 2022
Lock'em Up!
Lock'em all up!
WASHINGTON — Two lawyers for former President Donald J. Trump are likely to become witnesses or targets in the investigation into how he hoarded documents marked as classified at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate — and secretly held onto some even after the lawyers claimed all sensitive materials had been returned, legal specialists said.
Optimal Policy
"Goals" are never that clearly defined, and nor are, of course, the distribution of benefits and costs. How costs are defined can be pretty funny! It isn't political to, for example, assume a high wage person's time (and thus their LIFE) is more valuable than a low wage person's! It's just science!
Yah, sure, Larry Summers only pipes up when he's addressing a clearly defined question given to him by a policymaker, and is always very explicit about the distributional consequences of a Fed rate hike! That's Serious Economics!!!
Generally the implicit social welfare function in economic analysis is not explicit enough! It's always lurking, though. Roughly, if you try to (pretend to) avoid making judgment calls about distribution, you end up favoring very unequal ones!
The optimal policy to reduce student debt by $10,000 is to reduce student debt by $10,000. Can't argue with that, certainly.
Popularism!
These aren't slam dunk numbers, but they're pretty good!
Always pay attention when the imagined unpopularity of a policy is suddenly very important. Quite often the actual popularity of something doesn't matter at all! All very mysterious.
49 percent approve of the debt cancellation, 43 percent disapprove;A bunch of people whose Daddies paid for Harvard assured me this would be very unpopular.
56 percent approve of Biden extending the pause on student loan payments;
54 percent approve of Biden decreasing the amounts student loan borrowers need to pay back each month;
And 55 percent approve of covering borrower’s unpaid monthly interest as long as they are making monthly payments.
Always pay attention when the imagined unpopularity of a policy is suddenly very important. Quite often the actual popularity of something doesn't matter at all! All very mysterious.
Covid Day 3
Fingers crossed, seem to be on the improvement path. If so, not so bad for me, but I still wouldn't recommend it!
Human Intelligence
I don't know how bad all of this is, but Trump and the gang have no sense of any contraints. Things like Jared selling out intelligence assets to the Saudis are, despite the source being the Daily Mail (this from 2018), certainly possible!
We All Agreed About Nixon
I wasn't around - or aware, anyway - in 1974, but I grew up with Nixon's criminality and appropriate resignation as undisputed "facts." There were some Nixon dead enders around, and Ford made himself America's Greatest Hero by pardoning him, so things weren't so different than now, but generally Nixon apologia didn't have any place in The Discourse. It wasn't an issue with two sides, at least that I can remember, though they did elevate him to Distinguished Elder Statesman eventually.
By "we" I don't mean the country as a whole, of course, I mean official Washington, the chattering class, the high priests of political journalism.
His resignation was a redemptive moment for politics and political journalism. Woodward and Bernstein were heroic icons.
Yes, a lot of what came after for Republicans was revenge for Nixon and making sure it could never happen (to one of their guys) again, but they mostly didn't say it.
I don't know whether Donnie Two Scoops will be able to wriggle out of this one (I suspect he might!) but even if he doesn't, I don't expect it to be generally agreed upon in the same way. Not entirely sure why!
By "we" I don't mean the country as a whole, of course, I mean official Washington, the chattering class, the high priests of political journalism.
His resignation was a redemptive moment for politics and political journalism. Woodward and Bernstein were heroic icons.
Yes, a lot of what came after for Republicans was revenge for Nixon and making sure it could never happen (to one of their guys) again, but they mostly didn't say it.
I don't know whether Donnie Two Scoops will be able to wriggle out of this one (I suspect he might!) but even if he doesn't, I don't expect it to be generally agreed upon in the same way. Not entirely sure why!
Lock Him Up!!!
NEWS: DOJ's new filing includes. photo of the classified documents found at Mar-a-Lago on Aug. 8. https://t.co/nm567c96bi pic.twitter.com/0U2hoSogxQ
— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) August 31, 2022
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
Weed Post
Suspect this is choregraphed, but don't know precisely how!
BREAKING: @JohnFetterman calls on Biden to declassify and work to decriminalize marijuana prior to the President’s visit to Pittsburgh. pic.twitter.com/yMjboxpwop
— Andrew Wortman 🏳️🌈🇺🇸 (@AmoneyResists) August 29, 2022
Masters Of Political Hardball
I've been trying to explain how the political press is ridiculous for decades and she just tweeted it out.
The piece itself is basically lamenting the good old days when TipNRonnie had beers."Congress is dominated by masters of political hardball who’ve survived a Darwinian culling ... Covering them is like attending a riveting theatrical drama, except you get to wander behind the curtain and chat up the actors." Love this from @asfram https://t.co/FjczGVmLCN
— Seung Min Kim (@seungminkim) August 29, 2022
EVs Will Not Save The World
Erick's stupid, of course, but the focus on EVs as our savior, rather than the modest land use changes (everywhere you see a giant parking garage next to a train station, instead of a townhouse development, for example) that would lead to lower average VMT, is also stupid.
Nobody wants to live in a nice walkable neighborhood, they're too expensive.
Nobody wants to live in a nice walkable neighborhood, they're too expensive.
Failed State
Probably if you construct the measure just right, "providing water for your citizens" is actually regressive!
What if Don Jr. gets clean water?
(CNN)The residents of Jackson, Mississippi -- already dealing with flooded streets -- are now also faced with another problem: There isn't enough water to flush toilets or fight fires due to issues at the main water treatment facility, according to Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves.My joke is the railing against the supposed regressivity of policies is the new centrist excuse to not do nice things. A selectively applied and often topsy turvy standard.
Because of the failure to produce running water, the state will help distribute drinking and non-drinking water to up to 180,000 people as crews work to get the water treatment plant back online, the governor said.
What if Don Jr. gets clean water?
Monday, August 29, 2022
Sounds Pretty Badass
Maybe it's also Morbin Time for Joe!
JENNINGS: I think many important and smart things have been said at this table so I'll just add a couple. I feel like we've reached the Joker phase of the Biden presidency. All we're lacking now is the face paint and a purple suit. He's riding a parade float down Pennsylvania avenue just tossing money out the window here. And it's totally lawless. It's completely unconstitutional. It completely is in violation of our norm and you got a president with no agreement from Congress spending up to a half a trillion dollars.
The Good Republicans
Despite his long history of being awful, reporters have always portrayed Lindsey as a Good, Serious, Man because he always provides them quotes.
Reporters have been known to mock various politicians with lines like, "The most dangerous place to be is between X and a microphone/TV Camera," but really the way to ensure a constant stream of good press is to be just that guy.
Reporters have been known to mock various politicians with lines like, "The most dangerous place to be is between X and a microphone/TV Camera," but really the way to ensure a constant stream of good press is to be just that guy.
Lock Him Up!!!
Or whatever.
ATLANTA — A judge ruled on Monday that Gov. Brian P. Kemp of Georgia must appear before a special grand jury, investigating election interference by former President Donald J. Trump, but will not be compelled to do so until after the Nov. 8 election.
Life Choices
Even someone with lots of money might be somewhat constrained by their location choices (kids don't want to move schools, for one), but "I have an insane commute" is not something to make generalizations from.Literally drove 421 miles twice this weekend. My office is 81 miles one way and if traffic is bad can take more than 2 hours to get there. I have 3 trips this week that’ll be about 300 miles driving. Electric cars aren’t practical right now. https://t.co/oyWnI0Zl4f
— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) August 29, 2022
Also this in decent EV range so I don't really know what the point is.
My Immune System Is Mighty And Powerful Because I Am Awesome
Day 1 not too bad so far. Bad cold sick, not much worse. The title is making fun of the way fighting diseases is portrayed as gladiator combat, or a righteous moral battle, instead of just a bit of good or bad luck. Certainly would be nice if I beat this quickly, but "I" don't have much to do with it, really.
We Do Love Fetuses
The George Carlin joke was, "They will do anything for the unborn. But once you're born, you're on your own," though I think this actually gives forced birthers too much credit. Still, much like pretending that Paul Ryan was A Very Serious Wonk Who Cared Deeply About Solving Poverty, 40 years of journalists pretending that the most callous nasty uncaring bastards on the planet just love babies more than you do has been a bit frustrating!
Also that, but almost everything else, too.
Also that, but almost everything else, too.
Sunday, August 28, 2022
FINISH THEM
Being on THE LEFT, I'm used to being told my favorite policies are less popular than dog shit on your shoe, so I actually pay pretty close attention to certain issue polls, and how they're reported.
One I've always paid attention to is abortion, because it's, you know, important, and because the political coverage was long dominated by bullshit that obscured the reality of the issue as well as public opinionin the face of decades of that bullshit.
The short version is that while if you gave people ways to express their "discomfort" with abortion in the poll questions, they would, in that they'd express support for various types of restrictions. But the tell was that, when asked, opinion was always against prosecuting people (either doctors or people having abortions). "Bans" without any legal backing aren't really bans, just sermons.
The post-Dobbs world is a nightmare and people will hate it more and more. There are definitely Dems - electeds, consultants - who are desperate to go squishy on it, even though so far, not so bad!
The team that rarely fails to miss an opportunity hopefully fails this time!
One I've always paid attention to is abortion, because it's, you know, important, and because the political coverage was long dominated by bullshit that obscured the reality of the issue as well as public opinionin the face of decades of that bullshit.
The short version is that while if you gave people ways to express their "discomfort" with abortion in the poll questions, they would, in that they'd express support for various types of restrictions. But the tell was that, when asked, opinion was always against prosecuting people (either doctors or people having abortions). "Bans" without any legal backing aren't really bans, just sermons.
The post-Dobbs world is a nightmare and people will hate it more and more. There are definitely Dems - electeds, consultants - who are desperate to go squishy on it, even though so far, not so bad!
The team that rarely fails to miss an opportunity hopefully fails this time!
Polls
You almost never see pundits and political reporters consider the possibility that any "disapproval" that shows up in polls (on politicians, on their policies) about democrats comes from disgruntled people on the left and not CENTRISTS being mad that Chairman Biden has gone full communism.
This poll touted by Ron Klain shows modest support for the IRA and for debt relief.
This other poll suggests much greater support for the concept of student debt relief generally, with a lot of people annoyed that Biden didn't do more (though the writeup confuses this point).Support for the President’s recent actions to lower costs for working and middle class families pic.twitter.com/8jXkrrcVTH
— Ronald Klain (@WHCOS) August 28, 2022
Voters are split when it comes to both policies. When asked about their support for loan forgiveness, 36% think the $10,000 cancellation is too much action, 35% think it is just the right amount of action, and 30% think it is not enough, the poll says.The model in the minds of political reporters, especially when covering Democrats, is always "politicians battling for the center" and approval/disapproval is seen as a measure of how those voters are swayed.
What's It All About Then
Total mystery.
“Any documents that made it to the White House residence were these boxes Trump carried around with him,” explained Stephanie Grisham, a former senior White House staffer. “Usually the body man would have brought them upstairs for Trump or someone from the outer-Oval at the end of the day. They would get handed off to the residence and just disappear.”
Boxes of documents even came with Trump on foreign travel, following him to hotel rooms around the world — including countries considered foreign adversaries of the United States.
Take Your Own Side In A Fight
If Dem fortunes are improving because of anything they have done - instead of just circumstaces (Dobbs) - I think that generally it is because they are uncharacteristically seeming to do so at the moment (including on abortion).
One can overestimate the appeal of being perceived as the dominant player, but one can also certainly overestimate the appeal of being a mushy compromiser.
Substance matters too, of course.
Saturday, August 27, 2022
Not Just Trump
Obvious point, perhaps, but even if you ridiculously believe (pretend to believe) that presidents and ex-presidents have legal immunity from everything, he obviously wasn't the only one with access to the documents. I guess then you can pretend to believe that presidents and ex-presidents have the power to hand out a Double Oh "license to anything" to anyone they want.
Rage
Modest student debt relief has inspired a kind of rage that is somewhat baffling (intense among a certain set, not necessarily widespread). Of all the "wasted money" given to "undeserving people" this seems pretty low on the list of things to get enraged about, even if you agree with the things in quotes.
Student debt allows a certain kind of prestige-hoarder to pay lip service to the ideal of universal education, while also looking down on some graduates as, well, not quite the real thing. "Technically, you have a degree, but we all know you don't truly belong up here, dear." Erase that debt, and this distinction disappears. College graduates are all just college graduates again. A little bit more equality has entered the picture, and a little bit of prestige has departed.A lot of people getting mad are also pretending not to understand that this was something Biden could do with his pen, unlike the 10 other types of social spending they're pretending to support but wouldn't actually.
I suspect this is what most people really mean when they say student debt relief is "unfair."
Well If There's No Evidence A CIA Agent Was Killed
We're moving up the ladder from "Trump wanted some classified documents for tchotchkes" to "there's not yet proof an entire spy cell was executed because he sold their identities to North Korea."
Appropriately Sized Headline
A bit surprised The Grey Lady didn't put it on Pincus's page.
(Joke: Pincus was with the Post, but it's how I used to refer to oddly buried stories back in the day)
Friday, August 26, 2022
An Abortionplex In Every Town
Americans do love abortion.
Lots of highly paid advanced politics knowers are suprised.
When voters go the polls for the general election, they may be deciding on question that would enshrine reproductive rights, including the right to abortions, in the Michigan Constitution. The poll showed it looks like the ballot question would pass easily.Joke, but I'm not at all surprised by the strong support for abortion rights, generally, if people are faced with a simple choice.
Sixty-seven percent of people polled said they would vote for an amendment that would protect abortion rights. Twenty-four percent said they would vote against it. Nine percent were undecided or declined to answer.
Lots of highly paid advanced politics knowers are suprised.
Lunch Thread
Still shedding the things which kept me away from this fine blog part of this week. Better blogging next week or Rudy goes to prison!
Dark Brandon Rises
The updated comms strategy is nuch better. "MAGA Republicans" is much better than "Ultra MAGAs." Biden is naming names, and not just the complete freaks but Ted Cruz (a fresk too but an undeniable mainstream Republican).
The Republican party is made up of evil stupid assholes but Dems can't expect NPR listening CNN watching voters to figure that out without some additional promptiing.
Student Debt Reduction
My (who cares) take is that it was much better than expected, much better than the repeatedly leaked means tested $10K, even though $10K across the board was the headline action. I do think people should have had more debt forgiven outright, but they actually did do, in a somewhat roundabout way, what their critics were dishonestly demanding, which was to try to reform the system going forward instead of just doing a jubilee. Capping payment at 5% of income, capping the number of years, limiting years of repayment, and various other things are basically creating a new system of higher ed funding going forward. Fundamentally it's making explicit that the federal government is involved and should stop just providing cash for all the neighborhood loan sharks without any responsible framework in place.
I say critics were dishonestly demanding a broader reform of the system, because "don't do the thing that is possible, instead do the thing that is impossible" is their favorite ploy and they didn't think it was possible! Dark Brandon is more powerful than we thought!
I say critics were dishonestly demanding a broader reform of the system, because "don't do the thing that is possible, instead do the thing that is impossible" is their favorite ploy and they didn't think it was possible! Dark Brandon is more powerful than we thought!
Thursday, August 25, 2022
A Lot Of "Middle Class Tax Breaks" Benefit The Rich, Mostly
Quick post, but one thing lost in the student debt reduction is that Rich Dad who sent young Matty to Harvard quite likely was smart and saved, tax free, a lot of money for that tuition. $50,000 tax break on $200,000 (made up numbers, but you get the point).
Actual middle class people made save a bit in 529 college fund plans, but they are unlikely to save the full tuition amount, they still are looking for financial aid and the 529 account can (somewhat) count against in the FAFSA formulas.
Also middle class people frequently need to tap into these types of tax free accounts, because it's most of the savings they have, at a penalty.
Whether these programs are good or bad additions, given the way everything works, is not my point, but the point is that rich people can benefit from them fully and middle classish people...not all that much.
Actual middle class people made save a bit in 529 college fund plans, but they are unlikely to save the full tuition amount, they still are looking for financial aid and the 529 account can (somewhat) count against in the FAFSA formulas.
Also middle class people frequently need to tap into these types of tax free accounts, because it's most of the savings they have, at a penalty.
Whether these programs are good or bad additions, given the way everything works, is not my point, but the point is that rich people can benefit from them fully and middle classish people...not all that much.
Rich and poor alike can save 5 figures annually tax free!
Life Intervenes
Apologies because I will be a bit out of service today. Life intervenes sometimes! Bad blogging commences.
Wednesday, August 24, 2022
Student Debt
Busy at the moment but I will have my customary 3-4 sentence length response soon!
I'll outsource to Ryan for now.
Things That Don't Make Any Sense Until They Do
It isn't just that Daddy paid for Harvard, it's that Furman's entire career, including his day job right now makes absolutely no sense unless you know who his Daddy is.
Why do trust fund children oppose student debt relief so vehemently? This is a psychological puzzle that deserves further inquiry.
— Hal Singer (@HalSinger) August 24, 2022
Critics
Ingraham is gonna Ingraham, but consider how Official DC generally responded to protests outside SCOTUS justice houses, versus how they respond to threats faced by everybody else they haven't been to parties with.\
Now instead of making a change to its own aggressive posture, the Biden administration is taking preemptive action against its critics. The IRS today announced that it's launching what's called a security review of all facilities nationwide with The Washington Post laying the blame at the feet of "congressional Republicans and far-right extremists lashing out at the agency."The actual WaPo piece doesn't lay blame, in the sense of faulting. It's just a news article pointing out how the IRS is responding.
Other Guys
You don't have to be a Fox News junkie to think The Authoritarian Left is coming for your freedom. The idea that Woke College Students are going to put you in the gulag for using the wrong pronouns is regularly conveyed in our fancy centrist publications, and deeply believed by our glorious pundits, mostly because some young person of color asked them to clean up after themselves in the office kitchen once.
“The constitution is hanging by a thread,” he told me. “The funny thing is, I always thought it would be the other guys. And it’s my side. That just rips at my heart: that we would be the people who would surrender the constitution in order to win an election. That just blows my mind.”
Did They Ever Find The Solutions
Didn't notice if the NYT ever followed up their incredibly dumb editorial.
I mean they have 3 opinion columnists and one reporter on this full time, but I don't remember the editorial board itself continuing as promised.
Tuesday, August 23, 2022
Healing
The main argument against prosecuting Donald Trump — or investigating him with an eye toward criminal prosecution — is that it will worsen an already volatile fracture in American society between Republicans and Democrats. If, before an indictment, we could contain the forces of political chaos and social dissolution, the argument goes, then in the aftermath of such a move, we would be at their mercy. American democracy might not survive the stress.
More generally, a favorite pundit belief is that there are "divisions" that must be "healed" through Grand Compromises that appeal to pundits (but few others) and through the regular atoning for the sins of powerful people by the masses, granting the powerful forgiveness and absolution.
None of this ever makes any sense. People disagree about stuff, there are not "rifts" that can be "healed," and the regular absolution of rich people is the cause of, not solution to, our problems.
The Lifestyles Of The Not Quite Rich Enough
I used to think the a certain strand of literature, about people dealing with downward mobility as their claims on land rents dried up through the generations (think English novels of a certain period), were really, well, of a certain period, but now I see that for our chattering classes this is their ongoing personal sagas. Navigating their way through life, struggling to maintain their positions among the class of Manhattan real estate owners.
Our discourse switches between asserting that it's tough to live on $400,000 per year, and lamenting the greed of those complaining about $60K.
The only way to reconcile this is the obvious fact that "we" have a hard time living on $400K, and "they" should feel lucky to have $60K.
Our discourse switches between asserting that it's tough to live on $400,000 per year, and lamenting the greed of those complaining about $60K.
The only way to reconcile this is the obvious fact that "we" have a hard time living on $400K, and "they" should feel lucky to have $60K.
Graying (Not Just Me)
Was out in my childhood suburb recently, and it was striking how obvious the signs of demographic change was. It wasn't an entirely new suburb when my parents moved there, but still it was populated mostly by people either with kids or of similar age. Things like seniors only communities springing up and ubiquitous ads for house cleanout services (somewhat morbidly), plus just the age of people one saw around, were signs of change!
I used to be more sanguine about the public policy response to an ageing population, as those people vote, but for various reasons my relative optimism was, I think, misplaced.
I used to be more sanguine about the public policy response to an ageing population, as those people vote, but for various reasons my relative optimism was, I think, misplaced.
Seems Bad
The "what we can't see can't hurt us" approach to epidemics wasn't, apparently, solely a Trump idea.
CDC is filled with people who think they are clever but are not. Much like the internet!
Early on, every monkeypox test required physicians to first get permission from a city or state epidemiologist, often an hours-long process that required multiple phone calls or emails — before the sample was sent to a public health laboratory, which could take days to release results. Following CDC guidance, local officials also imposed strict requirements that tests could be administered only to patients with visible lesions — the telltale sign of monkeypox — or patients with rashes who had been potentially exposed. The CDC’s thinking was that testing the most at-risk people, followed by contact tracing, would give the United States the best shot at controlling the outbreak.If you need to fill out 57 forms and do an income verification to give someone a monkeypox test (yes I made that up, but you get the point), not many tests will be given.
The restrictions created a chokehold: Only about a dozen tests per day were being performed nationwide in early June, at a time when officials believed hundreds or thousands of daily tests were needed to detect infection clusters and head off an outbreak.
CDC is filled with people who think they are clever but are not. Much like the internet!
Not Just Trump
It should be obvious that the deep contempt for laws - or maybe in terms DC people can understand, THE NORMS - isn't just limited to Trump in a few people around him. It's the entire Republican party and much of the judiciary at this point. That last bit is complicated to deal with!
I don't have the full plan to deal with all of it, but establishing that there can be consequences, at least maybe, seems to be an important part of that.
I don't have the full plan to deal with all of it, but establishing that there can be consequences, at least maybe, seems to be an important part of that.
Monday, August 22, 2022
Doing Crime Himself
The man chose which ones to keep, personally.
The specific nature of the sensitive material that Mr. Trump took from the White House remains unclear. But the 15 boxes Mr. Trump turned over to the archives in January, nearly a year after he left office, included documents from the C.I.A., the National Security Agency and the F.B.I. spanning a variety of topics of national security interest, a person briefed on the matter said.Quite amazing how any Mag Habs piece offers up (if you read the paragraph preceeding these) various exculpating theories.
Mr. Trump went through the boxes himself in late 2021, according to multiple people briefed on his efforts, before turning them over.
Happy Hour
Hopefully more normal blogging tomorrow! Things are busy this week, for annoying reasons.
Testing The Means
When I was younger and more beautiful, "high marginal tax rates" were considered to be a great evil, in that they were a great disincentive for working (or doing whatever activity the tax was levied one). Even if one supported a high overall state share of the economy, lower tax rates on a broader base were the way to go, according to all the smart people. This argument was very prominent until the top rates for rich people went down!
For some reason this argument is rarely invoked against middle class (or any) means testing, which claws back any tax benefits or similar (ACA subsidies, for example) as incomes go up. In fact, economists who hate high tax rates love means testing! Weird! The result is lots of relatively well off but certainly not rich people end up paying really high effective marginal tax rates while actual rich people don't!
Any time you means test something enough to actually "save money" (get a better CBO score), you end up dipping into middle class income territory, and after decades of doing that with everything...
For some reason this argument is rarely invoked against middle class (or any) means testing, which claws back any tax benefits or similar (ACA subsidies, for example) as incomes go up. In fact, economists who hate high tax rates love means testing! Weird! The result is lots of relatively well off but certainly not rich people end up paying really high effective marginal tax rates while actual rich people don't!
Any time you means test something enough to actually "save money" (get a better CBO score), you end up dipping into middle class income territory, and after decades of doing that with everything...
Inverse
That we should hold powerful people to a higher standard, not a lower one, both legally and otherwise, seems somewhat obvious. It's also obvious why powerful people see that rather differently! I'm not entirely sure why not-so-powerful people wish to help them win these arguments.
Back In Civilization
Wasn't expecting to be somewhere with such spotty internet service - certainly not in the most technologically advancd nation in the world - but I guess that's a thing!
Don't Feed The Trolls
Various versions of "it would be too damaging/too political to require powerful people to obey laws" are simply part of the manure spreading machine and are not worth engaging.
Do tell you all you need to know about the people making them! Lots of opportunities for people to show their asses lately and it has not been pretty.
Sunday, August 21, 2022
Means Testing
Drive by comment on the 300th round of social media discussion of this:
We means test everything through progressive taxation. We don't have to means test any benefits. Don't worry, Don Jr. isn't going to buy things with food stamps and even if he did so what
Saturday, August 20, 2022
Hiking The Appalachian Trail
Not quite, but a bit in the woods this weekend. You will have to lock'em up yourselves!
Friday, August 19, 2022
79 Jiminies
The meanest thing you can do to Republicans is accurately describe the policies they themselves say they want. It's a violation of the norms!
I certainly don't want the horrible reality that women are currently facing when they try to access medical care, but only a tiny tiny percentage of these cases will actually make the news. It's a big country, this is happening every day.
This is what Republicans want.
I certainly don't want the horrible reality that women are currently facing when they try to access medical care, but only a tiny tiny percentage of these cases will actually make the news. It's a big country, this is happening every day.
This is what Republicans want.
Learning
Seems Dems - at least the more on the ground ones - are not doing as I feared by remaining squishy about abortion.
#MIGOV Blueprint poll
— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) August 19, 2022
"Only 12% of Michigan voters and 9% of women believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. Democrats are hammering Dixon on the abortion issue following the recent Dobbs decision, running ads reminding voters that Dixon opposes abortion in all cases"
Thursday, August 18, 2022
Bullies
Quick post on something there's more to be said about, but while generally I don't underestimate the level of bigotry in this country, I also think it's wrong to underestimate the tendency of people to side against bullies, and on this issue generally (and this specfically!) it's pretty clear who the bullies are.
America's Worst Humans
Tucker Carlson
Though all the "centrists" who spent 2 years complaining about HR diversity training workshops basically agree with him, and that's the bigger problem.
Right wing media has its impact, but its mainstream validators always trouble me more.
Though all the "centrists" who spent 2 years complaining about HR diversity training workshops basically agree with him, and that's the bigger problem.
Right wing media has its impact, but its mainstream validators always trouble me more.
Counting The Days Until 65
One feature of our glorious health care system is that I suspect large numbers of people are doing just that, and Republicans who shit talk Medicare are not very smart!!!
I certainly know people who were more than a little relieved when that birthday hit.
I certainly know people who were more than a little relieved when that birthday hit.
Understandable If He's Been Reading Our Centrist Pundits For Decades
"We" all thought overturning Roe would have no consequenes other than "turning down the temperature of politics!"
Has Glenn Kessler given this story 87 Jiminies yet?
A South Carolina lawmaker on Tuesday had to fight back tears as he explained that an anti-abortion law he’d voted for led to a young woman nearly losing her uterus, and even put her life at risk. Republican State Rep. Neal Collins told the state’s House Judiciary Committee that he’d lost sleep after learning about the case of a 19-year-old woman whose water broke after just 15 weeks of pregnancy. He said that because the fetus had a heartbeat, lawyers advised doctors that they could not remove the fetus, despite that being the recommended medical course of action. The young woman was discharged from hospital. “First, she’s going to pass this fetus in the toilet,” Collins said. “She’s going to have to deal with that on her own.” He added that a doctor told him that there was a “greater than 50 percent chance that she’s going to lose her uterus” and “there’s a 10 percent chance that she will develop sepsis and herself die.” “That weighs on me,” Collins added. “I voted for that bill. These are affecting people.”"These are affecting people." He figured that out more quickly than most of our old white dude pundits. I'll give him that at least!
Has Glenn Kessler given this story 87 Jiminies yet?
Wednesday, August 17, 2022
Lock'em Up!
Lock'em all up!
Federal prosecutors investigating the role that former President Donald J. Trump and his allies played in the events leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol have issued a grand jury subpoena to the National Archives for all the documents the agency provided to a parallel House select committee inquiry, according to a copy of the subpoena obtained by The New York Times.
Oh No Poor Rudy!
Must be tired!
UPDATE: after more than six hours inside, Rudy Giuliani has left the Fulton County courthouse.
— Blayne Alexander (@ReporterBlayne) August 17, 2022
Unlike his very public entrance, he departed largely away from cameras - through the secure underground garage.
Rudy!
Been too busy to follow news about our greatest American, America's Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, too closely.
CNN — Rudy Giuliani, who was told by Atlanta prosecutors that he is a target in their probe of former President Donald Trump’s 2020 election subversion schemes in Georgia, is appearing behind closed doors for grand jury testimony in the investigation.What the hell did "America's Mayor" ever even mean? Fucking cable news.
Don't Worry, Donald Trump Will Still Get "Better" Lawyers Than 99% Of The Population
He just might not get the fancy lawyers who know all the right people (including journalists) in DC. He'll get the best defense money can buy, just perhaps not the associated best PR money can buy, which we have been led to believe is the constitutional right of every rich person.
Defund The FBI
I don't think conservatives are "hypocrites" about law enforcement, because I understand their view is that laws are for other, lesser, people and groups, but mainstream journalists who pretend to take their concerns seriously and amplify them should stop pretending they mean things they don't mean!
Playing Wii In Second Life
I'm skeptical about the "metaverse" for various likely correct reasons,but more "sex bots" and "killing dragons" and less "virtual meetings with your legless Mii" and "exciting graphics from 1994" would at least hint at something marketable.
I remember in the early days of "the internet," VRML was a big thing because all the big brains believed internet shopping couldn't be popular unless they could "simulate the experience of walking through a real mall" or some nonsense like that.
The promise - even fake - of exciting online life is that it's an escape from the real thing, not that it's just a dull 16 bit graphic simulacrum of it.
Looks great! pic.twitter.com/aFFcvLv4ES
— james hennessy (@jrhennessy) August 16, 2022
Took me awhile to realize that was Sagrada Familia, somewhere I have been several times. It doesn't look like that, and not just because of shitty graphics.
The promise - even fake - of exciting online life is that it's an escape from the real thing, not that it's just a dull 16 bit graphic simulacrum of it.
Liz Cheney's Personal Tragedy
Fine for people giving Cheney kudos for her recent performance, but an extremely rich person losing a Wyoming House seat is not actually an extreme personal tragedy requiring various Heroic Epics to be penned in tribte.
Something reflecting the ongoing tragedy of the country, perhaps, but you can't make Liz a hero and then both sides that simultaneously, though of course that's the role Good Republicans play in the narrative, so they're desperate to have them.
Something reflecting the ongoing tragedy of the country, perhaps, but you can't make Liz a hero and then both sides that simultaneously, though of course that's the role Good Republicans play in the narrative, so they're desperate to have them.
Tuesday, August 16, 2022
Crises
After the housing/financial crisis and Covid, I've realized "the good guys" have about 6 weeks to address them in productive ways before the vultures regroup.
The vultures are confused for a bit because they have no solutions, but then they're ready.
The vultures are confused for a bit because they have no solutions, but then they're ready.
Lock'Em Up!
All the suspects are guilty, the challenge is determining exactly who is guilty of what!
Pat A. Cipollone and Patrick F. Philbin, the White House counsel and his deputy under President Donald J. Trump, were interviewed by the F.B.I. in connection with boxes of sensitive documents that were stored at Mr. Trump’s residence in Florida after he left office, three people familiar with the matter said.
We're Nothing And Nothing Will Help Us
I know I lean towards the cynical side of things, but especially when it comes to "expecting elite institutions to hold elites accountable," I think I have a wee bit of justification for my cynicism.
Ford's pardoning of Nixon was considered to be not just correct, but an act of extreme noble heroism, by the commentariat at the time. I don't think things have improved since.
Ford's pardoning of Nixon was considered to be not just correct, but an act of extreme noble heroism, by the commentariat at the time. I don't think things have improved since.
Golf Cart Nation
They are the ideal "short trip" transportation for "the suburbs," but the problem is many suburbs aren't well-built to even adapt to that. The single-access road development with no retail connected to a busy Stroad is not golf cart friendly, and while cut through paths and street adapations are possible, they are still adaptions that have to be made deliberately.
Lots of places where people are "crow flies" .5 miles from the supermarket, but street access 3 miles, 2 of which are on a 55mph road.
Lots of places where people are "crow flies" .5 miles from the supermarket, but street access 3 miles, 2 of which are on a 55mph road.
Diner Safaris In Biden Country
Hardly a new observation, but where are all the pieces about "Biden voters who still love Biden?"
I don't think New York Times political journalists, or their imagined audience (their friends), understand normie Democrats any better than they understand Trump voters.
Not that their portrayals of Trump voters were correct, either, but the premise - we need to learn about this (because we don't understand) and explain it to you (because you don't either) - wasn't completely nuts.
The "nuts" - or wrong - part is the belief by a certain class of people that they are uniquely qualified for these anthropological expositions, instead of being much closer to, say, Trump trying to understand how a supermarket works.
Not that their portrayals of Trump voters were correct, either, but the premise - we need to learn about this (because we don't understand) and explain it to you (because you don't either) - wasn't completely nuts.
The "nuts" - or wrong - part is the belief by a certain class of people that they are uniquely qualified for these anthropological expositions, instead of being much closer to, say, Trump trying to understand how a supermarket works.
Lock Him Up!
Gotta be consequences.
The thing about Trump is that he will say anything and do anything, and he will also try to get his followers to do anything. He essentially tried to overthrow the government of the United States. He’s a criminal on many levels. But we’ve convinced ourselves that if even if he’s not legitimate, we have to pretend he’s legitimate to placate his supporters. This is because Republicans, on top of all their other structural advantages, have performed an ideological trick on the entire country where they always an have extra little bit of Americanness: even when in the minority, they have a special something that makes it wrong to cross them. They are the “real Americans,” after all. It’s really an amazing feat, the political version of a small animal that has evolved to puff itself to appear intimidating.It's a con they've pulled on the easiest marks in the country - political journalists and prominent pundits.
Monday, August 15, 2022
Not America's Mayor!
For the country. For unity. End this now!
Rudy Giuliani has been told by prosecutors in Georgia that he is a target of the special purpose grand jury investigating whether former President Donald Trump and his allies violated the law in their efforts to flip the 2020 election results in Georgia.
A prosecutor from the Fulton County District Attorney’s office called Giuliani’s Georgia counsel on Monday to inform him that Giuliani is now considered a target of their investigation, said Bob Costello, another attorney for Giuliani.
Ping Pong And Beer
After writing that post I went to remind myself what I had written about WeWork before, and, well, I repeat myself (but so does he).
Now I think I get it - attract a bunch of money by marketing itself to investors as a some sort of new economy thing (hip millennial working spaces with Ping-Pong and beer!!!), and use that money to go long on a massive portfolio of commercial real estate leases. Then hope for the best!It wasn't an entirely crazy plan, but while Neumann was for whatever reason the one to attract the investment, he perhaps isn't the best person to run it!
In conversations with people inside and outside the company, Neumann’s pronouncements became wilder. He told one investor that he’d convinced Rahm Emanuel to run for president in 2020 on the “WeWork Agenda.” (Emanuel did not respond to a request for comment.) Neumann told colleagues that he was saving the women of Saudi Arabia by working with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to offer women coding classes, according to a source. In another meeting, Neumann said three people were going to save the world: bin Salman, Jared Kushner, and Neumann. Shortly after the news broke in October 2018 that Saudi agents tortured dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi and carved his body with a bone saw, likely on order from the crown prince himself, Neumann told George W. Bush’s former national security adviser Stephen Hadley that everything could be worked out if bin Salman had the right mentor. Confused, Hadley asked who that person might be, according to a source familiar with the meeting. Neumann paused for a moment and said: “Me.”He can still charm the usual group of rich lunatics, apparently!
What Could Go Wrong
The WeWork guy and real estate? Just throw money at him!
Neumann’s new company Flow wants to transform the residential rental real estate market. Notably, it has the financial support of Andreessen Horowitz, the prominent Silicon Valley venture capital firm that was an early investor in everything from Facebook to Airbnb.I'm sure this vision of disruption is like the vision of all 2010-era dotcom companies. You know, we'll have a ping pong table and a keg in the common area! Like guys missing college, but slightly different.
Andreessen said in the blog post that he was interested in Flow because the rental real estate market is ripe for disruption. That’s especially true, Andreessen said, now that more and more people are working from home and “will experience much less, if any, of the in-office social bonding and friendships that local workers enjoy.” He also hinted that the company might try to address one of the biggest challenges renters face: “You can pay rent for decades and still own zero equity — nothing.”Sleazy terms that let you work towards 10% equity and make you on the hook for building repairs, probably. After all, you "own" it!
Shifting
These were are "lies," of course, not "shifting explanations," and readers can't count on these liars to not also double as "trusted sources" (anonymously or not).
Trump’s Shifting Explanations Follow a Familiar PlaybookA playbook familiar to Haberman, who wrote the piece, and frequently helps to call the plays.
The former president and his allies have given often conflicting defenses of his retention of classified documents, without addressing why he had kept them.
Sunday, August 14, 2022
Slightly Dumb Question
And I suspect the answer is, simply, "Trump's brain is lodged in 1988 forever," but an intern, a nice copy/scan machine, and a day, and you get to "keep" all the documents you want while pretending to return them when asked?
Saturday, August 13, 2022
Lock Him Up!
Sounds bad.
Trump Lawyer Told Justice Dept. That Classified Material Had Been Returned
The lawyer signed a statement in June that all documents marked as classified and held in boxes in storage at Mar-a-Lago had been given back. The search at the former president’s home on Monday turned up more.
Who Cares
A weird obsession people seem to have is the idea that some revelation will make Trump's biggest supporters stop liking him, and 1) that's not how anything works and 2) who cares.
Some % of the country will love Trump no matter what, and some >% of the country will vote for a Republican for president no matter who it is. The great 'veil lifted from their eyes' moment will never come.
I don't think this is a practical concern, it's a desire to lead people into the light.
Some % of the country will love Trump no matter what, and some >% of the country will vote for a Republican for president no matter who it is. The great 'veil lifted from their eyes' moment will never come.
I don't think this is a practical concern, it's a desire to lead people into the light.
Check Mate, Libs
What if Trump declassified things with his mind after he wasn't president anymore, even though the law isn't about classification and he refused to give them back?
Why would a Wookiee, an 8-foot-tall Wookiee, want to live on Endor, with a bunch of 2-foot-tall Ewoks? That does not make sense! But more important, you have to ask yourself: What does this have to do with this case? Nothing. Ladies and gentlemen, it has nothing to do with this case! It does not make sense! Look at me. I'm a lawyer defending a major record company, and I'm talkin' about Chewbacca! Does that make sense? Ladies and gentlemen, I am not making any sense! None of this makes sense! And so you have to remember, when you're in that jury room deliberatin' and conjugatin' the Emancipation Proclamation, does it make sense? No! Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it does not make sense! If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit! The defense rests.
Friday, August 12, 2022
Details
Probably important.
The search warrant for Trump’s residence cited three criminal laws, all from Title 18 of the United States Code. Section 793, better known as the Espionage Act, which covers the unlawful retention of defense-related information that could harm the United States or aid a foreign adversary; Section 1519, which covers destroying or concealing documents to obstruct government investigations or administrative proceedings; and Section 2071, which covers the unlawful removal of government records. Notably, none of those laws turn on whether information was deemed to be unclassified.
Don't See How...
Breitbart reveals that the Former President is under investigation for violating the Espionage Act. 18 USC 793.
— emptywheel (@emptywheel) August 12, 2022
10 year penalties for each document.
Atrios, WRONG!!!
All the smart people saying Trump released the info to the WSJ, so sounds like I was wrong!
Binders Full Of Secrets
The alternate better ending to "Lost," too!
FBI agents who searched former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home Monday removed 11 sets of classified documents, including some marked as top secret and meant to be only available in special government facilities, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
Jack-Booted Thugs
In the alternate MAGA reality, Biden and Garland are corrupt thugs abusing their power, but everybody knows this isn't the case, especially the higly paid Advanced Politics Knowers who pretend to take this possibility seriously at times.
In reality, Garland has been extremely cautious. Whether or not he has been doing this sensibly and appropriately is I think still somewhat unknowable, but any non-lying or non-pretending-take-liars-seriously observers know he has certainly overlooked much obvious crimeing!
Maybe they have nothing, maybe they were acting on bad information. Who knows? But they weren't going to send the Feds into Mar-a-Lago unless they thought there something really really bad was going on!!!
In reality, Garland has been extremely cautious. Whether or not he has been doing this sensibly and appropriately is I think still somewhat unknowable, but any non-lying or non-pretending-take-liars-seriously observers know he has certainly overlooked much obvious crimeing!
Maybe they have nothing, maybe they were acting on bad information. Who knows? But they weren't going to send the Feds into Mar-a-Lago unless they thought there something really really bad was going on!!!
They'll Be Back
Occasionally there's a brief glitch in the conservative talking points production machine, but they'll soon think of some "If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit!" level stuff that all our highly paid Advanced Politics Knowers will pretend to take seriously.CANCELLED: 9:00 am EDT The conservative Republicans’ House Freedom Caucus will no longer be holding a news conference to discuss the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida estate.
— Jennifer King (@jenapradio) August 12, 2022
The Family Business
And when his lawyers oppose it...
"We oppose the warrant release because they won't produce these other documents we just made up." Or whatever.
Always doing PR, Maggie. Hope it pays well. He doesn't even write, "warrant," just "documents related to," which I'd bet are some made up "justification" documents or other nonsense they will demand, not the warrant itself.Trump not opposing warrant release pic.twitter.com/HjlarShXIg
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) August 12, 2022
"We oppose the warrant release because they won't produce these other documents we just made up." Or whatever.
Thursday, August 11, 2022
Sounds Bad
Also "sounds bad in a way people can understand."
Classified documents relating to nuclear weapons were among the items FBI agents sought in a search of former president Donald Trump’s Florida residence on Monday, according to people familiar with the investigation.
They Are The Box
Whether any or all of these people are "good" or "bad," they are...not outside the box.Biden sought "outside-the-box thinking" on the state of democracy so the WH convened Michael McFaul, Richard Haass, Fareed Zakaria, Ian Bremmer, Fiona Hill, James Stavridis, Jon Meacham, Anne Applebaum, Sean Wilentz and Michael Beschloss, and Allida Black. https://t.co/ixCsWcF5n1
— Justin Logan (@JustinTLogan) August 10, 2022
Sensitive
I have no idea, but I'd bet the law enforcement people certainly believe this was mob boss Two Scoops with some important stuff, not just some random stuff stamped "classified."
Two people briefed on the classified documents that investigators believe remained at Mar-a-Lago indicated that they were so sensitive in nature, and related to national security, that the Justice Department had to act.
Today Is The Day Donald Trump Became President - For Life!
More than half the commentariat would have decreed it would be irresponsible to change presidents under these circumstances (war, "contested" election).
Among those pushing the President to hit Iran before Biden’s Inauguration, Milley believed, was the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. On December 18th, the same day that Trump met with Flynn to discuss instituting martial law, Milley met with Netanyahu at his home in Jerusalem to personally urge him to back off with Trump. “If you do this, you’re gonna have a fucking war,” Milley told him.When I read this stuff, I assume things like "Iranian-backed militias in Iraq" are, well, not that. I am not a smart foreign policy talking guy, but this type of thinking just seems absurd to me:
Two days later, on December 20th, Iranian-backed militias in Iraq fired nearly two dozen rockets at the American Embassy in Baghdad. Trump responded by publicly blaming Iran and threatening major retaliation if so much as a single American was killed. It was the largest attack on the Green Zone in more than a decade, and exactly the sort of provocation Milley had been dreading.
The biggest fear was that Iran would provoke Trump, and, using an array of diplomatic and military channels, American officials warned the Iranians not to exploit the volatile domestic situation in the U.S. “There was a distinct concern that Iran would take advantage of this to strike at us in some way,” Adam Smith, the House Armed Services chairman, recalled.Of all the entities interested in stirring up shit, Iran seems pretty low on the list!
Offense
Like many things, I say this regularly, but constantly responding to the Right's endless nonsense, constantly attempting to *answer* their bullshit of the day, constantly playing politics on the field of their choice, is not so smart!!!
While you're attempting to explain how gas prices have Fallen, Actually, they're onto the next bullshit (today it's that "0 inflation is still inflation").
While you're attempting to explain how gas prices have Fallen, Actually, they're onto the next bullshit (today it's that "0 inflation is still inflation").
Lock Him Up!
Pretty reasonable thing to do.
ATLANTA, Ga. (CBS46/AP) - U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham did not show up to his scheduled appearance on Wednesday at the Fulton County courthouse.
Team Transitory
We'll never get credit for being right.
The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline followed advances of 1.0 percent in June and 0.8 percent in May.
Wednesday, August 10, 2022
Lock'em UP
!!!!
Federal investigators delivered subpoenas or paid visits to several House and Senate Republican offices in the Pennsylvania Capitol on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to multiple sources.
At least some of the individuals receiving subpoenas were told they were not targets of an investigation, according to at least six sources reached by PennLive, but that they may have information of interest to the FBI. All of the sources had been briefed on the investigative moves in some way, but demanded anonymity in order to discuss them.
I Doubt It's Simply A Now-Felony Records Violation
While this is funny, I highly doubt "haha it's a felony now, Two Scoops" is enough to make Garland do this.
Simply "mishandling records, even egregiously" probably isn't driving it. Those specific records, for specific reasons (believed, at least).
Simply "mishandling records, even egregiously" probably isn't driving it. Those specific records, for specific reasons (believed, at least).
IS Deflation LOOMING???
Joke, but when inflation is deemed to be gone, they'll probably start in on that, and weirdly the "solutions" will be the same!!!
Sounds Like He Has Something To Hide!!!
Trump taking the 5th, as is his right, but that doesn't mean we can't draw our own conclusions!!!
(Trump is also incapable of speaking without lying, so any sane lawyer would tell him to do this).
(Trump is also incapable of speaking without lying, so any sane lawyer would tell him to do this).
Oh, Elon
A frustrating thing is that people "like me" said this at the time, and pointed out that even if the technology wasn't magic nonsense, the cost estimates for it were (specifically, if the cost of "hyperloop" excludes things like "buying land to put the hyperloop on" it seems cheap!).
Can debate how important this, like all of my peculiar obsessions is, but for years this Musk/Uber stuff was EVERYBODY IS WRONG ON THE INTERNET level of enraging for me. Ah, well, Atrios right for the wrong reasons, YET AGAIN.
Marx: I think it also goes back to what I was saying earlier in terms of the distraction that Elon Musk has achieved really effectively. To try to distract from real solutions to the problems that the automobile has created and things that would require less car dependence and to actually offer people alternatives to the car and to instead kind of intervene and say, no, actually, I have these ideas that are going to be even better than that, and we should pursue those instead to try to sap energy from alternatives. So the Hyperloop, for example, he admitted to his biographer that the reason the Hyperloop was announced—even though he had no intention of pursuing it—was to try to disrupt the California high-speed rail project and to get in the way of that actually succeeding.A dozen years of additional uphill fights on sensible transportation policy because of Uber, Elon, and their media/politician fans.
I would say the Boring Company just kind of slides in there as a way to distract from efforts to improve public transit and have a greater focus on transit as a means of solving these problems with the automobile. Instead of, say, building subway systems he could say, look we’re going to build these really cheap tunnels, you’ll be able to take your car into it. And later he said, why also make it so people who don’t have cars can use it, too. And that promise doesn’t exist any longer either. And that’s really good for him as an automaker.
Can debate how important this, like all of my peculiar obsessions is, but for years this Musk/Uber stuff was EVERYBODY IS WRONG ON THE INTERNET level of enraging for me. Ah, well, Atrios right for the wrong reasons, YET AGAIN.
Who Snitched?
Everyone knows the dude has a quarter pound of cocaine in his high school locker, they're just wondering which one of his friends is a narc.
Trumpworld is abuzz with speculation about which close aide or aides has "flipped" and provided additional sensitive information to the FBI about what former President Trump was keeping at Mar-a-Lago, sources tell Axios.
INFLATION!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Numbers out today, and CPI +0.
Inflation's over folks!!!!
Team transitory wins!
Inflation's over folks!!!!
Team transitory wins!
Tuesday, August 09, 2022
The Incontrovertible Evidence Of My Client's Guilt Is Fake, I Assure You
That kind of talk gives some hope for the fallibility of Mr. Scoops!
Lock'em Up!
Lock'em all up!
EXCLUSIVE – Republican Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania says that the FBI has confiscated his cell phone.
Perry, in an exclusive statement, told Fox News on Tuesday that while traveling with his family earlier in the day, he was approached by three FBI agents who handed him a warrant and requested that he turn over his cell phone.
Armchair Warriors
For most of these grifters, it is "just posting," but not necessarily for all of their fans.War = More posting pic.twitter.com/Uq2yT0bKLH
— Murtaza Hussain (@MazMHussain) August 9, 2022
Inflation
The threat of "inflation" was used to derail all the nice things in BBB, because serious people have decided that "giving not rich people nice things" is the only inflationary fiscal policy (hint: if you think fiscal policy is inflationary, you can offset the "nice things" policies with "increasing rich people taxes" policies).
Larry Summer made 3 predictions, and after running them through his economist supercomputer (lol I mean 'vibing like Nate Silver'), gave each a 1/3 chance of happening. Amazingly the thing that did happen was not one of his predictions, but somehow Larry was proved fucking right anyway.
"Team transitory" said inflation was transitory, not spiraling out of control, and was the result of the post-Covid return to normal, supply chain problems everyone is aware of, and abuse of market power. "Team inflation" said it was going to last forever and we'd be Weimar Germany if we didn't try to start a recession. After a few months of increasing CPI, team inflation declared they were correct, and the Fed started hiking rates.
The real freakout was that there would be actual decent social policy and rising worker wages for the first time in decades. It was necessary to kill that.
They won, of course, killing the policy and getting the Fed rate hikes. Inflation numbers come out tomorrow. They'll likely show improvement, and we'll see what the next step is. But they've established that not only can we never let people get raises (consensus for decades), but giving people a few bucks a month for child care, or whatever, will destroy the economy.
Good job everybody. Send money to my substack, which is not inflationary.
Larry Summer made 3 predictions, and after running them through his economist supercomputer (lol I mean 'vibing like Nate Silver'), gave each a 1/3 chance of happening. Amazingly the thing that did happen was not one of his predictions, but somehow Larry was proved fucking right anyway.
"Team transitory" said inflation was transitory, not spiraling out of control, and was the result of the post-Covid return to normal, supply chain problems everyone is aware of, and abuse of market power. "Team inflation" said it was going to last forever and we'd be Weimar Germany if we didn't try to start a recession. After a few months of increasing CPI, team inflation declared they were correct, and the Fed started hiking rates.
The real freakout was that there would be actual decent social policy and rising worker wages for the first time in decades. It was necessary to kill that.
They won, of course, killing the policy and getting the Fed rate hikes. Inflation numbers come out tomorrow. They'll likely show improvement, and we'll see what the next step is. But they've established that not only can we never let people get raises (consensus for decades), but giving people a few bucks a month for child care, or whatever, will destroy the economy.
Good job everybody. Send money to my substack, which is not inflationary.
Don't See How Donnie Two Scoops Wriggles Out Of This One
We'll see!!!
CNN — A federal appeals court on Tuesday signed off on a House Ways and Means Committee request to obtain former President Donald Trump’s tax returns from the Internal Revenue Service.
The 3-0 ruling from the DC Circuit Court of Appeals is a blow to Trump, who has argued for years in court against releasing his tax returns to any investigators. A trial-level judge he appointed while president previously rejected his arguments in the case.
Musky
To be fair, I'm not sure it's his biggest boondoggle.
Not everyone has fallen for it. In June of 2018, Musk paraded through the streets of Chicago with former mayor Rahm Emanuel, celebrating an agreement for an 18-mile tunnel from the city’s Loop (that’s the neighborhood, not the Teslas in tunnels) to O’Hare Airport. The estimated cost was $1 billion (Musk was paying, of course), and tunneling would begin within a year. But in December 2018, a delegation of elected Chicago officials traveled to L.A. for the opening of the test tunnel at SpaceX headquarters. As promised, there was a party; Grimes was in attendance, and Gary the snail was there, too (although it was, in all likelihood, not the same Gary). Musk stood in the green glow of the tunnel opening like an extraterrestrial delivering bad news as he returned to Earth: The team had run out of time, he explained; there were no pods and no electric skates. Guests were given stomach-turning rides in Tesla Model Xs that topped out at around 40 mph through an unpaved 1.14-mile tunnel. The Chicago contingency was not impressed. “A little bumpy,” alderman Gilbert Villegas told the Chicago Tribune. “There has to be a lot more questions answered before we can begin a type of project like that.” Alderman Carlos Ramirez-Rosa was even more cynical, telling The Verge, “If you look at Elon Musk’s career — he comes off as a grifter.” When Lori Lightfoot was elected mayor, she promptly killed the tunnel.Rahm's an asshole and he's stupid.
That's Not What My Friends And I Thought???!!?!?!?
Why were *you* surprised and why do you project your assumptions on the rest of the country?
Kansas voters last week surprised America — maybe even surprised themselves — by roundly defeating a referendum that would have removed protection for abortion rights from the state constitution."It seems that highly paid Advanced Politics Knowers have been writing nonsense about abortion for decades" is the correct reaction here. Not, wow, surprised everybody!!!
The Speculation Game
Garland/The DOJ/FBI wouldn't have done this if they didn't *really* know what they were looking for and it was actually time sensitive.
Or LOL no one knows anything.
Or LOL no one knows anything.
Monday, August 08, 2022
Don't See How...
Was out for the evening and guessed I miss some fun!
CNN — The FBI executed a search warrant Monday at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, as part of an investigation into the handling of presidential documents, including classified documents, that may have been brought there, three people familiar with the situation told CNN.
Surely Doctors Won't Have To Obey The Law
There are several reasons for this "oversight" in decades of Roe thumbsuckers, but I'd guess one is simply the blind spot about "the law" applying to people like doctors, who are, after all, people like "us" to whom the law rarely applies. Not all law, perhaps, but its ambiguities and related disretionary applications that let The Law abuse Those People but not Us.
Of course MY doctor can treat ME any way he deems necessary!!!
Also, women, how the fuck do they work?
Of course MY doctor can treat ME any way he deems necessary!!!
Also, women, how the fuck do they work?
A Man Can't Give Up His Business
Along with my general obsession with, "why don't rich people fuck off to sip wine in Italy and leave us alone," I have, "why don't 88-year-old senators decide they've done enough evil for one life, and can at least chill on the evil a bit, even if they aren't ready to retire from their excellent elder care position."
Leopard, spots, I guess.
Pretty sure Chuck does his own tweeting. I'll give him that, I guess.
Leopard, spots, I guess.
Pretty sure Chuck does his own tweeting. I'll give him that, I guess.
Don't See How America's Mayor Wriggles Out Of This One
We'll see!
Rudy Giuliani, former President Donald Trump’s personal attorney, is aiming to delay his testimony before a Fulton County special grand jury examining Georgia’s 2020 elections.
A new court filing shows that Giuliani will challenge his subpoena, technically known as a certificate of material witness, at 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday in front of Fulton Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney. That’s roughly the same time he’s slated to testify before the 23-person special grand jury.
Turning Down The Temperature On Politics
I did search the Opinion section over the past 10 years for "abortion" and "drugs" and while I don't claim this was a comprehensive search, I found nothing suggesting doctors would have difficulty prescribing drugs meant for other conditions. I did find BoBo getting in one last entry into this fabulous genre from 12/21.
Decades Of Abortion "Discourse" All Garbage
Very rarely did the basic point that "if you ban abortion you make it impossible for women to receive necessary medical care" make it into the thumbsucking pieces about Compromise and Deeply Held Beliefs and Commonsense Restrictions and Roe Was Poorly Decided and Turning The Temperature Down and blahblahblah.
Medicines that treat conditions from cancer to autoimmune diseases to ulcers can also end a pregnancy or cause birth defects. As a result, doctors and pharmacists in more than a dozen states with strict abortion restrictions must suddenly navigate whether and when to order such drugs because they could be held criminally liable and lose their licenses for prescribing some of them to pregnant women.If I had an intern (who would be very well paid, according to the strict ethical guidelines of Eschaton World Industries), I'd make them go through the past 20 years of, say, New York Times abortion opinion pieces and see how often this basic (obvious) issue was raised.
Even if they can show their patients suffer from conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, some doctors worry they could be prosecuted for prescribing such drugs to a patient with an unintended pregnancy. Such patients are also at greater risk because they can no longer seek abortions in their home states should they accidentally become pregnant while taking such drugs — no matter how grievous the injuries to the developing fetus.
Joe Manchin, The Greatest Democrat
The usual suspects are busy rewriting history, how Manchin saved a deal that was almost scuttled by the perifidious Squad and their minions.
Lis Smith (not the only one doing this) is a monster, of course, but she'll always have a seat at the table for reasons best left for you to figure out.
Lis Smith (not the only one doing this) is a monster, of course, but she'll always have a seat at the table for reasons best left for you to figure out.
Anyway, reasonable advice is: don't expect the people you shit on to carry your burden.The far left votes against infrastructure, turns attention to student debt on same day Dems pass biggest investment in clean energy, landmark prescription drug negotiation bill. But remind me how it’s the reasonable wing of the Dem Party that’s the problem? https://t.co/5eb4QDffRP
— Lis Smith (@Lis_Smith) August 7, 2022
Sunday, August 07, 2022
(Shatner Voice) Get A Life!!!
Statement against interest, I guess, given what we do here at this very fine blog, but really most people don't have to be paying attention to the Senate on a Sunday morning, and in fact most people shouldn't be. Being informed enough about what is going on, who the heroes and villains are and how you should vote, don't require it!!!
Lunch Thread
Think we should make senators all wear wigs like English judges, to make it a bit more obvious how absurd they all are.
Social Compacts
Quick and unoriginal thoughts for a Sunday, but "we" do have a bit of a problem if there aren't enough teachers, and the people in charge have no interest in fixing the situation. Either because they want the public school system to collapse, or they just don't see why paying teachers more than they earned in 1983 makes any sense.
Things work a certain way, until they don't.
Things work a certain way, until they don't.
Saturday, August 06, 2022
DEBATE ME, YOU COWARD!!
Glad everyone gets to see how ridiculous Elon is, now. Was lonely for awhile.
I hereby challenge @paraga to a public debate about the Twitter bot percentage.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2022
Let him prove to the public that Twitter has <5% fake or spam daily users!
Tort Reform
There seems to be some above-my-paygrade ambiguity about legal caps on punitive damages in Texas, but in any case we can see that this is what the "tort reform" movement was about. Not about protecting normal people from being sued by someone claiming to have fallen on their sidewalk, or whatever. Protecting bad rich actors from having to make payments they could afford to make.
I always have to explain to Europeans that the reason "everybody" is scared of lawsuits is because of our medical system. It's the medical costs.
I always have to explain to Europeans that the reason "everybody" is scared of lawsuits is because of our medical system. It's the medical costs.
Gun Nuttery
Actually curious how politicians in open carry states react to people showing up at their campaign rallies with them?
As much as our glorious national newspapers do "diner safaries," they don't actually try very hard to convey some of the nuances of political life in these places.
As much as our glorious national newspapers do "diner safaries," they don't actually try very hard to convey some of the nuances of political life in these places.
Friday, August 05, 2022
Musky
I suppose my big hope for Musk/Twitter is maximum humiliation for Musk.
This probably does not surprise you.
This probably does not surprise you.
I Thought He Was The Sasquatch
Playing the "secret elite" card against Fetterman is a pretty funny gambit.
Take the L on this one guys.
Take the L on this one guys.
Let's Go Dark Brandon
OK after being informed about what the "let's go Brandon!" thing was about, my response was, ok that's cute? Saying, in essence, "fuck the president" with a cutesey catch phrase is about the most normal and inoffensive thing MAGAland has ever done.
Y'All
This tweet has been the perfect distillation of Trump era political journalism.
Clinton Cash was a Bannon (and others) production, as you know. Partnered with the WaPo and NYT for exclusives!.@amychozick got her hands on that "Clinton Cash" book, y'all http://t.co/pgc20pgKgP
— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) April 20, 2015
Another Fun Thing
Is that when the NYT announced this position it was widely believed by journalists to be an opportunity for POC, and instead was a within-the-bulding promotion of Michael Powell who has focused on nothing but conservative white male grievances about the Oberlin Student Council and the unfair problems facing racist sex pests on campus.
A fun thing to think about is that 2 years ago the NYT assigned a reporter to cover free speech and education and since then he has written three articles about tweets by the ACLU and one about the rightwing movement carrying out sweeping state censorship in schools & libraries
— Julia Carrie Wong (@juliacarriew) August 5, 2022
You Could Fire Him
Certain things about the Biden administration I dislike but at least understand. The failure to de-Trumpify the government is not one of them.
WHITEHOUSE: As you know, we are entering the fourth year of a frustrating saga [...] regarding the Kavanaugh supplemental background investigation, and I'd like to get that matter wrapped up. First, is it true that after Kavanaugh-related tips were separated from other tips, that they were forwarded to White House counsel without investigation?
WRAY: ... When it comes to the tip line, we wanted to make sure the White House had all the information we had, so when the hundreds of calls started coming it, we gathered those up, reviewed them and provided them to the White House—
WHITEHOUSE: Without investigation?
WRAY: We reviewed them and then provided them to the White House.
WHITEHOUSE: You reviewed them for the purposes of separating from tip line traffic but did not further investigate the ones that related to Kavanaugh, correct?
WRAY: Correct.
WHITEHOUSE: Is it also true that in that supplemental BI [background investigation], the FBI took direction from the White House as to whom the FBI would question and even what questions the FBI could ask?
WRAY: So it is true ... as to the who. I am not sure as I sit here whether it is true as to the what questions.
Metaversal
Land can be expensive because it is a scarce resource and because of transportation costs. As in, it is on/near something valuable (including lots of people and the value they bring in various ways) and the closer people live the easier/cheaper it is to access that value.
The only way to make this happen in the "metaverse" is add in transportation costs somehow, some benefit to "nearness" that doesn't make every spot on the infinite plane identical from this perspective.
The only way to make this happen in the "metaverse" is add in transportation costs somehow, some benefit to "nearness" that doesn't make every spot on the infinite plane identical from this perspective.
The metaverse is in the midst of a real estate meltdown. Sales volumes and average prices for virtual land have plunged this year, part of a broader slide in crypto and non-fungible token prices.You can add in such features, of course, and you can make it all like this, too:
Leaving aside the fact that the whole thing is dumb.
Thursday, August 04, 2022
God Is Me
None of these people are religious in the way that "religious" is invoked in The Discourse. They are just people with god complexes.
Notably, they have far-outside-the-mainstream positions on abortion. Mastriano and Dixon favor a ban with no exceptions. Mastriano is a Christian nationalist who believes God wants him elected governor to serve as an instrument of God’s will. Lake saw the demise of Roe as a providential sign of God’s will that women are “meant to be” mothers.Cult leaders in search of a cult.
Curb Cuts
Occasionally some of my finer critics make comments which are variations of, "Why does Duncan (my critics love to call me Duncan) focus on X instead of Y?" or even "Why did Duncan not comment on this thing that happened 2 hours ago, probably a sinister explanation!!!"
And, you know, the posts on this blog are mostly me, I have my specific interests and focuses much like everybody else, I try not to pop off on every subject, meaning that I tend to focus more on the things I have been paying attention to... As with all genres of criticism, such things can have merit at times. Perhaps I am missing the big picture! Perhaps I am avoid certain subjects for less than admirable reasons!
But usually not...
And, you know, the posts on this blog are mostly me, I have my specific interests and focuses much like everybody else, I try not to pop off on every subject, meaning that I tend to focus more on the things I have been paying attention to... As with all genres of criticism, such things can have merit at times. Perhaps I am missing the big picture! Perhaps I am avoid certain subjects for less than admirable reasons!
But usually not...
Get Some Hobbies
I remain mystified by all these people who get rich and then don't fuck off to Italy, or whatever, but still spend their days counting their money and going on CNBC.
I actually have some respect for the ones who do buy the SUPER YACHTs or similar, relative to the ones who spend their summer vacations zooming into Fox News. Really, nothing better to do, Alan? Though they should also quit their damn jobs too!
Really my big life advice to people - rich and not so rich! - is get some hobbies and interests.
I actually have some respect for the ones who do buy the SUPER YACHTs or similar, relative to the ones who spend their summer vacations zooming into Fox News. Really, nothing better to do, Alan? Though they should also quit their damn jobs too!
Really my big life advice to people - rich and not so rich! - is get some hobbies and interests.
Policy Is Working!
Forgot it was new jobless day, and with 260,000 new lucky duckies, we can see that the "cause a recession" policies are working! Not surprising, as causing a recession is the easiest policy trick in the world, but for some strange reason (not so strange, really), those with the courage to cause immense misery for other people are always lauded!
I roll my eyes every time politicians (not necessarily faulting them) claim the policies will create "millions of new jobs" or whatever, because we have (at the moment, but not soon!) plenty of jobs. People need raises, which they won't allow.
I roll my eyes every time politicians (not necessarily faulting them) claim the policies will create "millions of new jobs" or whatever, because we have (at the moment, but not soon!) plenty of jobs. People need raises, which they won't allow.
I Will Only Obey The Law If I Get Immunity For My Other Crimes
Novel legal approach!
But on July 29, Navarro’s lawyer sent a letter to the DOJ saying that Navarro was refusing to produce any of the emails without being granted full immunity for anything within.
“Mr. Navarro is wrongfully retaining Presidential records that are the property of the United States, and which constitute part of the permanent historical record of the prior administration,” the lawsuit states. “Mr. Navarro’s wrongful retention of Presidential records violates District of Columbia law, federal common law, and the PRA.”
How Did This Happen
Lost of news pieces about teachers which don't talk to a single current former or current teacher is part of it!.
The piece is ok generally, but "talking to one current teacher or a teacher who recently quit" seems like a reasonable starting place! A single "why did you leave the profession?" quote!
Related: all the people who screamed about students having their lives ruined because of lazy teachers during covid are pretty quiet about the "no teacher" situation now!
The teacher shortage in America has hit crisis levels — and school officials everywhere are scrambling to ensure that, as students return to classrooms, someone will be there to educate them.Imagine the nerdrage coming off journalists if a similar piece was published about journalism which quoted no journalists!!
The piece is ok generally, but "talking to one current teacher or a teacher who recently quit" seems like a reasonable starting place! A single "why did you leave the profession?" quote!
Related: all the people who screamed about students having their lives ruined because of lazy teachers during covid are pretty quiet about the "no teacher" situation now!
Don't See How My Former Colleague Wriggles Out Of This One
We'll see!
Peter Navarro, the oft-combative former Trump adviser already facing a fall trial on charges of contempt of Congress, was sued by the government Wednesday over his refusal to turn over private emails he allegedly used to conduct White House business during the Trump administration.