Sometimes IRL friends ask me to predict elections and, well, I got nothin'. You can look at polls, you can take polls and average them, you can take polls and average them with some extra special sauce, you can consult your vibes, you can combine vibes with polls, and, well, it's all basically bullshit except the looking at the basic raw poll numbers. I have no special insight, and find the election prediction industry to be especially annoying, especially as I suspect a big chunk of the polls are just made up.
I don't mean news orgs are faking them, but every leak to journalists about "internal polling" are likely nonsense, designed to MANIPULATIVE THE NARRATIVE.
We'll find out soon!
