Monday, November 27, 2023

The Worst Economy In Generations

It isn't, of course, in many ways, and I'm certainly one who has criticized your favorite media sources for hyping "bad economy" stories in ways that weren't warranted. Still there are ways in which the economy is genuinely bad - and one way, in particular, official inflation numbers actually underestimate effective price increases - and that's the effective cost of housing for new home buyers (monthly mortage pyament).


The narrative of life has a "success sequence" - get educated, get a job, get married, buy a house, have kids.  If any of those things get interrupted, life gets thrown off a bit (I know not everyone does all these things or wants to, but...). 

"Getting an adult job" derailed everybody in their 20s during the Great Financial Crisis.  Now it's "buying a house."  Not, perhaps, as acute, but still a problem!

That's for  people of a certain age range, mostly, but people are also trapped in their current living situations due to the high cost of moving.  Have to trade that 3% mortgage for a 6% one.

And, generally, cheap and easy credit is what smooths over the bumps of an unforgiving society.  Without those...