Tuesday, March 05, 2024

Fighting In Enemy Territory

I know how this works. They run dumb focus groups (focus groups are almost always dumb in politics), from which they learn if they patiently explain to voters, in that closed environment, that TRUMP sabotaged the BIPARTISAN BORDER DEAL, which was TOUGHER THAN ANY BORDER DEAL IN DECADES, then those voters nod their heads and say "wow, bad Trump." They conclude they have a winning issue. 

Then those voters leave their containment field and go home and turn on Fox. The focus group itself is made up of a group of people who have expressed concerns about "the border," providing this feedback loop for all involved.

More broadly, focus groups can tell you if a particular advertising pitch might work. Bring a group of soda lovers together in a room and ask them if this particular pitch will get them to buy Pepsi instead of Coke. It does not tell you that The Soda Question is the burning question on everybody's mind. If you go on the campaign trail talking about nothing but The Soda Question, you alienate the people who never drink that shit. Also Coke has better brand appeal (as a soda, not everything), and 20x the advertising budget, and you can't get everyone into the focus group room to pitch this one on one. There is no effective retort to "Pepsi Shmepsi."

Also, this isn't polling, it's push polling. Would you like the Democrats more, once we explain the Democrats are good, y/n?
by Atrios at 09:00