The Next 3-4 Years Are Critical

Longtime readers remember widespread self-driving cars adoption was just around the corner and self-driving trucks were the "easy" problem.

The self-driving semi, outfitted with 25 laser, radar and camera sensors, is owned by Pittsburgh-based Aurora Innovation Inc. Late this year, Aurora plans to start hauling freight on Interstate 45 between the Dallas and Houston areas with 20 driverless trucks.

Within three or four years, Aurora and its competitors expect to put thousands self-driving trucks on America’s public freeways. The goal is for the trucks, which can run nearly around the clock without breaks, to speed the flow of goods, accelerating delivery times.

The technology isn't fanciful anymore - I acknowledge that - but I still suspect the economic case is much less than its boosters claim.

I mean, to put it simply, truck drivers don't make that much money these days, and any self-driving operation will still need significant behind-the-scenes support.  It's not very clear that replacing drivers is really a big cost saver!

Of course automation has long replaced/complemented lower wage workers, but it's generally of the "big machine/big computer replaces hundreds of workers" variety not of the "big machine/big computer replaces one worker" variety.  

And like everything else, unless applications and production of the big machinecomputer scale, it won't be cheap!