Saturday, March 01, 2025

Predictions Are Hard, Especially About The Future

It is possible, but I do think that betting on there being a definitive moment - airplane crashes, stonk line going down, massive unemployment spike, whatever - when it becomes clear, perhaps even to them, that they have fucked it so much that they have to change course is not a good bet.

Rich people getting a sad would lead to them... giving a bunch of free money to rich people.

The Carville "sit back and wait for everything to collapse" view is wrong for many reasons, but one is that there is a good chance it won't happen like that.

People forget, largely because at that point that DC press had been on Team Bush for so long they barely let it infect their copy, but Bush's approval rating went into the 20s! 

Did that signal a positive outlook for Dem electoral fortunes? Sure. Did it make the Bush administration decide to become good? Haha no.