Friday, March 28, 2025

Morning

Oh what a beautiful...

Thursday, March 27, 2025

Thursday Night

Rock on.

Happy Hour

Get happy

Every Week

Trump says tariffs are coming, Ford implies he's going to cut off the power, Lutnick steps in to try to prevent it.

Main Character Syndrome

There's the obvious point that people are not likely to be thrilled to meet the bullies who are threatening them with invasion, but even aside from that, why would anyone in Greenland be interested in meeting the wife of the Vice President of the United States? (translated by google):
Over the past week, deployed Americans have been present in Nuuk, knocking on doors and ringing doorbells.

- They've gotten no, no, no, no, no, every single time they (the Americans, ed.) have asked if they wouldn't mind having the vice president's wife visit.
Like if someone knocked on my door and asked me if I wanted to sit down for a chat with Bo Tengberg, the husband of Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, I'm not sure I'd be interested! I'd wonder why they thought I would be!

Lunch

eat

Circling Back To This

How are we doing here?
“I think it’s important for people to understand the context, that we’re coming out of four years of Biden and things haven’t been great,” one White House print reporter told CJR. “There’ve been fewer eyeballs on the press briefings and less attention than under Trump, so people just don’t understand some of the very frustrating things that we’ve dealt with and that we hope are going to be rolled back.”

Among those frustrations: the Biden press office largely kept reporters at a remove from the president, who—as Cameron Joseph noted here last year—had agreed to far fewer formal interviews than any president before him. Instead, White House reporters say, the Biden team preferred to offer background quotes from in-house experts whose job it was to speak to the press; when the president did meet with a large number of outlets, like during his pre-election rounds of interviews on Black radio stations, it was through highly orchestrated conversations, sometimes including preapproved lists of questions. Inside the briefing room, reporters who didn’t hold coveted front-row seats felt they got much less opportunity to ask questions.

“For a lot of people, what was the point in even going?” said a veteran White House reporter.

Trump, on the other hand, adores the attention of the media, even as he frequently maligns the reporters themselves. During his first term, he regularly chatted with White House reporters during strolls to Marine One, and held a number of high-profile, if occasionally ill-conceived, televised sit-downs, with everyone from Axios’s Jonathan Swan to Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy. (On his first night back, Trump spent forty-five minutes casually answering media questions in the Oval Office, while he signed executive orders.)

“Despite his sometimes strident and sometimes even violent rhetoric about the press, he loves talking to us,” the print reporter said. “And his team—they like talking to us, and they know that they’re going to have a huge audience.”

Truth Teller

Jesse Watters says what every journalist knows but doesn't make explicit.

I WILL NEVER STOP FIGHTING FOR YOUUUUUUUUU

There is no one model of the true "swing/irregular" voter, but my firm belief is that they are, generally, absolutely nothing like "Joe and Eileen Bailey," the fictional Long Island residents who Chuck Schumer devotes his life to trying to please yet always fails to.

Joe and Eileen Bailey are the people [some] Democrats think will be charmed by Liz Cheney, but won't be. They voted for a Democrat for president precisely once - Obama 2008 - and never will again.

If you have to pick between someone who fits the mold of "NPR centrism" and someone who is more likely to elicit a response of "I don't always agree with him/her, but I like that s/he has principles, knows where s/he stands, and that s/he's on the side of people like me," I am sure it is mostly the latter.

As James Carville argued, when he was pushing Clinton against Obama, "[Hillary is] the candidate you want on your side in a knife fight." 

You can argue this is tone and style more than substance, that voters really do love moderate policies, and that your "knife fighter" shouldn't be promising full communism. Fine. Now is the perfect opportunity for those centrist ass kickers! Come on out!  There has never been a more perfect time for a full-throated defense of the status quo!

Morning

Late start

Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Also, Too

Only the best people.
Private contact details of the most important security advisers to U.S. President Donald Trump can be found on the internet. DER SPIEGEL reporters were able to find mobile phone numbers, email addresses and even some passwords belonging to the top officials.
Above my pay grade, but I am guessing this was all made possible by the dismantling of normal background checks, on-boarding, and training of high level people.

Public Venmo

I have no idea why that is a thing and certainly not why so many public figure leave it on.
A Venmo account under the name “Michael Waltz,” carrying a profile photo of the national security adviser and connected to accounts bearing the names of people closely associated with him, was left open to the public until Wednesday afternoon. A WIRED analysis shows that the account revealed the names of hundreds of Waltz’s personal and professional associates, including journalists, military officers, lobbyists, and others—information a foreign intelligence service or other actors could exploit for any number of ends, experts say.
...TAP printed the full list.

Nobody Could Have Predicted

Me:
One issue with supplements is people tend to think that if one is good, then two might be better, and Vitamin A is actually a bit dangerous, especially if you started hyperdosing kids.
Now:
One of those supplements is cod liver oil containing vitamin A, which Mr. Kennedy has promoted as a near miraculous cure for measles. Physicians at Covenant Children’s Hospital in Lubbock, Texas, say they’ve now treated a handful of unvaccinated children who were given so much vitamin A that they had signs of liver damage.

Some of them had received unsafe doses of cod liver oil and other vitamin A supplements for several weeks in an attempt to prevent a measles infection, said Dr. Summer Davies, who cares for acutely ill children at the hospital.

“I had a patient that was only sick a couple of days, four or five days, but had been taking it for like three weeks,” Dr. Davies said.

Concerning

I missed the moment when China became the Big Bad, but whatever one thinks about that issue we should be consistent with this stuff!
Elon Musk’s aerospace giant SpaceX allows investors from China to buy stakes in the company as long as the funds are routed through the Cayman Islands or other offshore secrecy hubs, according to previously unreported court records.
And whatever one thinks about China or defense contractors, that their financing and activities get a bit of scrutiny probably isn't too controversial!

One part of the Tesla - not SpaceX - story is that China offered him a lifeboat when he needed it and it isn't clear what the price of that was!

Lunch

eat

Why They Shouldn't Have Listened To Carville For Their Own Sakes

(Though as I've said, Carville was just selling the plan they'd already decided on).

If the supposed leaders weren't going to lead, other people were. They might be disgusting lefty legislators or it might be nasty protesters or someone else. That was obvious. If the "moderates" want to lead, they can they can lead!
But it is worrying some moderate Democrats who fear Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez could tug the party to the left at a time when it is rudderless and turn off swing voters in the process.

Matt Bennett, a vice president at the center-left group Third Way, said he is glad that the rallies are “giving people an outlet for that anger” against Trump. But he argued that “crowd size is the worst metric in American politics” and “it is important that they not repeat the mistakes that the far left has made that helped get us into this mess in the first place.”
The best metric in American politics: contributions to the Third Way.

"Trump is bad, we should stop him" was the easiest position to take and they fucked up!

Better

I know the way Democrats tend to think is that if they call for someone to resign/be fired, and the person doesn't, then the failure makes them look bad for reasons that can't be explained.

Obviously he should resign (fired, whatever) - he's shit and dangerous even by the current standards - but calling for him to resign isn't just about winning that battle. It's about showing you believe what you're saying - not just that it's "concerning" in the Susan Collins sense - and it's about keeping the story alive.

Normal people mostly don't hear about anything that's a one day story. If you don't give journalists something new every day they'll lose interest, in part because there are lots of things going on!

No one thinks Trump gives a shit what Jeffries thinks, but reporters need a hook!

Something

Narrative shift:

In a stunning outcome, Democrat James Andrew Malone defeated Republican Josh Parsons to win the 36th Senatorial District seat in Harrisburg.

President Donald Trump rolled to a +15 victory in the district back in November, but northern Lancaster County voters made a statement heard ’round the Keystone State on Tuesday.

The guy ran as anti-Musk, not anti-Trump, showing that is a way to reach Trumpers (no that shouldn't make sense, but...). 

Tuesday, March 25, 2025

Happy Hour

It is time.

Are We There Yet, James

Carville a month ago:
"I believe that this administration, in less than 30 days is in the midst of a massive collapse, in particularly a collapse in public opinion," Carville said.

Carville pointed to the drop in approval ratings Trump has seen in the four weeks since he returned to office.

"This is the lowest approval, not even close, that any president has ever had at a comparable time," he said. "That's a provable fact."

Carville said he does not believe Republicans will be able to lift the debt limit or pass a reconciliation package, and that GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson will be forced to reach across the aisle for help from Democrats. "That is going to be the equivalent of stacking arms. It's over," he said.
Trump's not popular, but he isn't unpopular either. The debt limit and reconciliation haven't happened, but Republicans seem to love the "We can just zero out spending we don't like" plan so I supect they will!

Carville's similar NYT piece gave himself a massive out:
At this rate, the Trump honeymoon will be over, best case, by Memorial Day but more likely in the next 30 days
30 days, 90ish days, whatever. What Carville was selling was the leadership (both of them!)-going-on-book-tours plan of doing nothing and letting America react all by itself with no prompting from Dem politicians.

I don't know how they expect people to find out what is happening unless they tell them loudly and repeatedly.

James, himself, realized that he has no idea how people get their information! FUCKING ASK PEOPLE WHO DO and they will tell that unless you make noisy news, and repeat it, no one will hear about it, and mainstream news sources are deferential to 1) power 2) Republicans.

(reader t reminded me)